TechnipFMC plc (FTI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 7, 2025

New York Stock Exchange US Energy Energy Equipment and Services conference_presentation 34 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Ati Modak

analyst
#1

Good afternoon, everyone. Thank you for joining us today. We've got Doug Pferdehirt from TechnipFMC, CEO. Doug, thank you for taking the time.

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#2

Ati, thank you for having us, and thank you to Goldman Sachs for very productive day so far.

Ati Modak

analyst
#3

Appreciate that. Doug, maybe we start high level, if you can spend a few minutes talking about your view of the macro. How that's playing out? And maybe how you see your business feeding into that macro from that perspective?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#4

Sure. Thank you. So when we look at the macro, our primary business is focused on the offshore more specifically to the subsea. We are really observing where the capital flows and where the capital flows are going. The capital flows are really driven by a few fundamentals. One is access, access to those parts of the world or to those reserves. The second is economics. And the third is the regulatory environment. And there's been a structural change. We started talking about this now 5, 6 years ago. But it's really becoming, I think, evident and more widely accepted or I would even dare to say accepted by everyone, which is there's this real structural change happening offshore because if you break up the world between kind of the Middle East, the offshore and the North America market, they're very different fundamentals in terms of access, great access in the U.S., but maybe the economics are a bit more challenging. If you look at Saudi or the Middle East and more generally, the access is more limited to external capital, but the economics are quite strong. But where they all come together in a perfect storm, if you will, is in the offshore, both in terms of access, in terms of the economics and as well as in terms of the regulatory environment and the stability. So when you put those together, it's attracting the capital today. On top of that, we see emerging countries. So if you will, new opportunities that simply haven't existed. And the amount of new opportunities for the offshore region is far beyond what it's ever been and certainly in my career, and we all talk about Guyana. We know about Guyana. We're super proud to be part of the Guyana and working with ExxonMobil, Hess and their partners in Guyana. But other countries are looking to do something similar, and there's -- the reserves are there, the seismic is there. The exploration drilling has been completed. So they're trying to pull themselves forward in the queue to try to attract that capital to make sure that their reserves also get into the energy mix. So the dynamic right now offshore -- pardon the pun, but it's much more dynamic than it's ever been. The opportunity set is far richer than it's ever been. And we are, we believe, very uniquely positioned in that market.

Ati Modak

analyst
#5

Doug, you've also gone through over a longer period of time, there's been a business model change, and you've gone through a few changes in how you price customers and how you think about the whole equation. Maybe if you can help us understand what that change has been, where you are today, where do you see that evolving over time?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#6

Sure. And you'll have to cut me off because this is one I could go on for a very long time because it's been a journey, and it's been a complex journey. But the journey is behind us, right? So that's the main message is we've done the difficult, the bold, the complex moves. We're now fully focused on executing and moving forward and seeing the benefits of that. So I'll try to be as brief as I can, but you had an industry that was always admired. I mean what we do is pretty fascinating. The type of technology challenges that we face are very similar to NASA. NASA is probably the partner that we collaborate most from a technology point of view, be it from automation and control, be it from material sciences. The atmospheric conditions that NASA has to deal with are at a similar magnitude of technical challenges what we deal with on the sea floor. Many people think of the sea floor as, I don't know, diving down and picking up sea shells. Where we are placing this equipment is 1 mile to 2 miles deep in the water column. So over 10,000 feet below the surface of the water, extreme conditions in terms of corrosivity, in terms of pressure and in terms of temperature. You have well fluid coming out that can be 350 degrees Fahrenheit but you're in an environment on the sea floor that's about 35 degrees Fahrenheit. So that impact on the material is just absolutely dramatic. So it takes really advanced material science. And then it's 10 miles -- or excuse me, 2 miles deep, 10,000 feet deep, has to survive a lifespan of 25 to 35 years depending upon the technology that's being used. And there's no real way to intervene other than through robotics. So it's all done with advanced automation and control and robotics. There's no human intervention. So it really is quite space age, if you will, technology that we do. The problem is we were in a scenario where every single project we were doing things for the first time. We were always doing first article and when you do first article, you are in a bespoke model, which means you don't create leverage or you don't get any benefit of scalability. So if you will, you're somewhat limited in the value that you can create. At the same time, our customers were very -- it was customary amongst our customers to do each project with a new or different piece of specifications, which led to a brand-new piece of equipment even for the same customer in the same region, one field to the other field. And we needed to find a way to move that forward. So when we looked at it, we saw -- actually, there was really 3 dimensions that needed to be addressed. The commercial model needed to be addressed, the product architecture needed to be addressed. And then thirdly, internally, we needed to address our operating model. And we've been working on all 3 of those for as much as almost 10 years now. It led to the merger. It led to the creation of TechnipFMC and now we're seeing the benefit of that. And I'll pass it back to you if you want to dive into those 3 categories.

Ati Modak

analyst
#7

Yes, sure. Maybe we can go through each one of them. Maybe the technology side, we've spent a lot of time talking about Subsea 2.0 configure to order, how that improves your time efficiency. If you can talk about why that efficiency is important, what that is doing to your direct orders and how that has stood out against what the industry practice has been?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#8

Okay. Thank you. So Subsea 2.0 being let -- this new product architecture. So when we were going to bespoke or the first article on every single project, that's what it was. It was something we had never built before. We were going to build it for the first time for use on that project never to be used again. And that's what we did, and that's what -- how the industry kind of developed. Our customers understood that they're saying design one, build many or standardization was beneficial. I mean our customers clearly understood that. But there wasn't a -- the only option was choose one supplier's architecture and make that the standard. Well, that didn't really work, right? Because think about the automotive industry. You don't want to buy the same car as your neighbor, the same car, same color, same configuration, you want to have some input into that vehicle and how it's built for you. But the automotive manufacturer certainly doesn't want to engineer and design one car and sell one car to you. So what the automotive industry figured out was configurability versus standardization. So we learned. We actually work very closely with the Lean Institute in Toyota. They were very helpful and worked very closely with us to go and look at what we offer, this architecture on the sea floor, and really break it down into configurable components. So again, the easiest way to think about it is the automotive industry. The automotive industry has -- and automobile has hundreds and -- has thousands of parts in it. Let's just think about the transmission. The transmission has thousands of parts. But when you order a car, you don't order the gears or the gear lube or the transmission casing, you either get a manual transmission or an automatic transmission. Same as engine sizes and things. So they broke them down into configurable components and then they gave you the consumer the option of configuring your own vehicle. Now you get your vehicle delivered, you feel really good. Your favorite auto manufacturer, whoever it is, built that just for you then you drive down the street and you view of children, like my daughters, they point out that there's a car that looks just like yours a week after you bought it. And you realize they probably built thousands of this exact configuration. But when you ordered it, it felt like your own. This is what we've done with the Subsea industry. So with the 2.0 configurable product architecture, we actually have an app now. So the client can go on their favorite device, they have scrolled on menus, just like you do when you order your vehicle. It's how you order subsea equipment, 5,000, 10,000, 15,000 or 20,000 psi. 200, 350 or 400 degrees Fahrenheit, flow module, no flow module, et cetera. When they do that, we go straight into assembly and test. Just like the automotive industry, they don't engineer that car for you, they assemble, test and deliver that car for you. We assemble, test, deliver and commission it on the seabed. So it's the same idea. That has taken out approximately 9 months of engineering that was done at the time of order, just to be able to place orders in the supply chain because remember, these things had never been built before. There was something unique and different about what the client was asking for. So what that leads to then is a completely different operating model. So the second part is this different operating model that we now have, which allows us to use that leverage, to use that scalability. Things are interchangeable between projects, but even between clients now that before were from the time of the forging all the way through to the time of the final delivery, there was no way to change or alter that order. We now have much more flexibility and much more adaptability built into the way that we operate the company. This was created again, from a business that had no leverage or scalability, we now have that built into the company today. And we're just in the early stages of benefiting from that because we went through the whole process of the engineering 4 years, the most extensive engineering program we've ever done was to take this incredibly complex because the architecture is bigger than the size of this ballroom. I mean we have massive spreads on the sea floor. And we had to figure out a way how to get that down into these configurable components versus thousands of individual parts and then make it, take it out to our customers, make sure our customers accepted it, qualified it and subscribe to it. So we've been commercial. We've been selling this now since late 2017, we introduced it into the market. It makes up about 50% of our orders. We're now seeing that flow through our manufacturing plan. Why is that exciting? Because to me, 2025 in the future years are very exciting. The hard work is done, as I said before. Now we see it flow through the plant. It is fundamentally change the efficiency of the company. We knew on paper theoretically that we should be able to double our throughput capacity. We've now demonstrated and exceeded doubling our capacity. So imagine the same capital investment, no new investment, I can put twice as much through the same footprint. And we're now finding out it's going to be more than twice as much. We're learning as we go as we get more of this flowing through. So 50% of our orders, about 20, half of that is flowing through the plant. That will continue to ramp up, as it converts from orders into the assembly and test manufacturing assembly and test, and we're seeing the benefit of that now. So it's actually an extremely exciting time for the company to see this come together. I didn't touch on the commercial model. I don't know if you want to handle that. And then the third element was to really fundamentally change the cycle time of offshore projects, which is really the key. Offshore projects have been notorious for being long, expensive and unfortunately, often not being delivered on time. So we recognize that to really make this a structural and sustainable change for the offshore capital flows as we talked about early on, was we had actually made fundamental change in the delivery model. So the commercial model or the delivery model is now what we call integrated projects or I for Integrated EPCI, engineering procurement, construction and installation. So we merged with Technip to create TechnipFMC so that we would have all of those capabilities under one roof. The result of that is when I take an iEPCI, an integrated project, along with the Subsea 2.0 and that faster cycle time, I can deliver a project approximately 1 year earlier than I used to and 1 year earlier than my competitor who still is in a 1.0 nonintegrated world. It's created a tremendous moat around our company. We're humbled by that. We don't take it for granted. We continue to work on that every single day. We can talk about other technologies that we're working on, but it's been truly game-changing and positioned us uniquely in the industry. This has led to -- if there's one number that you take away from this, it's led to 70%, 7-0 percent of our business being direct awarded to our company. This is just unheard of, never goes out of the competitive tender because what we have built is so unique, so differentiating and quite frankly, so interesting to our clients.

Ati Modak

analyst
#9

In terms of the other technologies, if you can spend a couple of minutes on the all-electric option, what are you seeing there? You have a pilot project, I think you are working on with BP. Any kind of color there and how you're thinking about that part of the business?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#10

Sure. So if you look at a traditional subsea architecture today, the valves -- everything is actuated with hydraulic controls. Hydraulic controls are dependable. They've been around forever. You all flew on airplanes in the past that were hydraulically controlled. You don't anymore. There's obviously benefits to electric over hydraulic or electric controls. The main benefit in subsea is the distance that you can send the signal with limited loss. So we all know electricity can go a long way with very limited loss. That's why you see very long transmission lines and underwater cables. Hydraulic control means you're pushing hydraulic fluid. When you hit the brakes in your car, assuming they're hydraulically controlled, you hit the brake, it pushes the fluid out to the caliper, puts friction on the wheels, so it slows down. Same thing in subsea, except remember, we got to go 2 miles, up to 2 miles vertically down to the seabed, and then you can go out another 5, 7, 8 miles in a star shaped pattern to get to the individual wells. That's a very long distance. It creates latency. And it also makes you build equipment called an umbilical that's very complex and very expensive. You can replace all of that with the electric controls with basically a long extension cord. Now it's a little more elegant than an extension cord, but with a long power cable. And that's all that you need. So the contract that we announced earlier or towards the end of 2024 was the Northern Endurance Partnership. It's in the U.K. It is a carbon capture and storage project. We're extremely excited about this. We are the company that enables that carbon to be able to take it offshore and to inject that CO2 into an aquifer for permanent storage. Obviously, important for the world, important for society. but enabled by the all-electric system because the distance that we're going from, from the emitters onshore to the actual aquifer where it's being stored is 145 kilometers. You can't push hydraulic fluid 145 kilometers or you'd have to have a huge pipe and you'd have -- it would be expensive, you'd have massive friction losses, et cetera or you would have to come up in intermediate locations back up to the surface, so you have to build a big surface floating structure, you'd have to reenergize, pump it back down and so forth and so on. In this case, from shore to the injection point on the seabed, there is nothing visible on the water surface, all enabled by the all-electric system. So this is the industry's first all-electric application. We strongly believe that carbon transportation and storage market will be primarily driven by this type of all-electric subsea technology. And we also fundamentally believe that the right place to be storing carbon is offshore, not underneath of residential communities and onshore but taking it offshore.

Ati Modak

analyst
#11

Doug, as you think about the opportunities in '25, both in terms of inbounds and what might be incremental to those inbounds, what does the market look like in terms of what customers are talking to you about?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#12

So let's -- if you allow me to kind of go '25 and beyond, which I'm sure you'll allow me to do because it's actually '25, we are very well positioned. So we have visibility and an understanding that is quite unprecedented because of this unique position we're in, in a very consolidated segment where we have this competitive differentiation. So -- but -- so we're seeing well beyond 2025 is my point. The three kind of buckets that I would look at is you have customers that are really, first and foremost, focused on securing our capacity. Look, they know we have a lot of scalability now. And as we talked about before, Subsea 2.0, more efficient, we can do more with less, et cetera. But they also don't want to be in a position where we're not able to do their work because they want to do iEPCI, the integrated approach. They want to do 2.0 so they want to secure our capacity. So they're giving us visibility far beyond what we would typically have. So today, as we sit here today, most of those clients are talking to us about 2028 to 2030. That's the time frame they're talking about. Then you have a group of customers that are smaller in scale. They don't have as many offshore opportunities, and they want the fastest cycle time because this is their way to generate revenue, right? So they want to see this field develop as quickly as they can. Well, they love the iEPCI 2.0 model because, as I said, it typically is one year or faster than the competition is able to deliver. So they're coming to us talking about acceleration, product acceleration, product acceleration, product acceleration. So securing capacity, acceleration. And then the third bucket, which I think is least understood and least appreciated goes back to one of my earlier comments about the richness of the opportunity set. The -- not only have the number of customers expanded, as I just talked about with these smaller players trying to do -- trying to accelerate the development of offshore projects, but also the number of countries, right? And again, Guyana is the leading example of that. But beyond Guyana, there's multiple other countries that you've heard about or will hear about that have massive reserves offshore that have now kind of they're kind of leaning forward saying, "Hey, wait a minute. We saw what happened in Guyana, how do we make that happen here. So they are putting in place more business friendly policies to really drive and attract investment from our customers into those regions. So you will see new countries come online at a much faster pace than we have ever experienced before. So it's kind of 3 different conversations. I guess the underlying takeaway is they're all actually very favorable, but for different reasons. But they're all trying to achieve the same outcome, which is ensure that they can deliver world-class safe, effective offshore projects, and they believe we're the company to help them do that.

Ati Modak

analyst
#13

That's very helpful. So Doug, you've mentioned that you've got visibility on orders for multiple years effectively. If you think about the backlog that you already have, it sounds like the backlog that's about to convert from here on is potentially higher margins because there's more higher margin sort of orders in there. Can you talk about that and what that does to your margin profile, where do you want to get in terms of margin on a normalized basis longer term?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#14

I knew you weren't going to let me get off the stage without that one. Look, great question, agree with the thesis of the question. The quality of the backlog is not just a function of the commercial value of it, which has clearly been improving. Just as importantly is the terms and conditions and what we are putting into the backlog in terms of what we are committing to deliver. So when we announced iEPCI 2.0 direct award, which, again, is the vast majority of what we're announcing, that's the highest quality because not only does it mean the customer sees the value, so they're paying for the value that we're creating. But as importantly to us, it means very low risk, very low risk. We still have to execute. Don't get me wrong. We still have to execute, but we're not doing something for the first time. We're pulling from -- remember, the automotive, we're pulling the transmission. We're pulling the engine. We're pulling the chassis. Everything has been engineered, everything has been designed. The supply chain is in place. We're able to place bulk orders with the supply chain instead of one order at a time. They're starting to build inventory and holding that on our behalf, which further shortens the cycle time and derisk the project. So for all of those reasons, the type of project is just as important. And we said that 2024 has been a year where we expanded the quality of the backlog meaning not only the commercial quality but all the other attributes. And we've already said in 2025, we expect more iEPCI and more Subsea 2.0 as part of that mix of the 2025 inbound. So very, very favorable and it continues to move in that direction. So what does that mean for margin, which is the -- I knew you were not going to let me off the stage. Look, our margin expansion has actually been quite tremendous. If you just look at the growth rate, the trajectory of the margin, we had 2025 margin guidance out at 15%, 1-5. We subsequently updated that to 18%, 1-8 and more recently, we updated that to a range of between 18.5% and 20% or call it 19.25% at the midpoint. And that's all because we're seeing the benefit of the 2.0, the iEPCI, the new operating model, the configure to order, the scalability, the leverage, we're just experiencing that. And remember, it's still the minority of what's flowing through the plan. It will become the majority of what's flowing through the plant because we've got the orders coming in. So it will. So as that converts, one, it's fair to conclude that the outlook for 2025 is certainly not a peak margin, but yet a major milestone on a more ambitious journey.

Ati Modak

analyst
#15

Got it. Doug, in terms of capital allocation priorities, how are you thinking about free cash flow generation, CapEx and then between dividends, buybacks, M&A opportunities? How do you think about the moving pieces there?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#16

Sure. So we have been quite successful. We're obviously generating good profitability and cash associated with that because I should also mention revenue is growing at the same time. So we just talked about all the reasons for margin expansion. We know revenue is growing. We've been inbounding at a clip of $10 billion a year, revenues in the $7.5 billion, $7.7 billion range for this year. We already gave guidance for 2025 going to $8.5 billion. So you should expect there's an upward trajectory to that too, just based upon the volume of inbound that we have. So revenue growing, margin growing, obviously, we're going to generate a significant amount of cash. We said that we would convert no less than 50% of that. We also said that we would distribute up to 60% of the free cash flow. We've exceeded that quite significantly. We just announced a $1 billion share buyback following almost distributing $750 million so far between dividend and buyback. We just announced a new $1 billion buyback. We are very committed and very aware of if we have a use for that, that we can justify that's going to create shareholder value, we'll put it to use. If not, we're going to distribute that. And we have no problem distributing that. If you look at our CapEx spending, we have fundamentally changed the operating model of the company. We've reduced the fixed asset base. We got out of this arms race of who has the most or the biggest assets. We are collaborating with our competitors using their assets on our work. Remember, 70% of our work is direct awarded, never goes out to a competitive tender. So that means for those others, their total addressable market has shrunk, has shrunk materially. So let's you say they're more willing to work with us than ever in order to be able to be part of that addressable market that they no longer have access to. So we call that the vessel ecosystem. We're not building our new assets. We're working with other people's assets on our jobs which gives us scalability without us taking any of the risk associated with it. That means a lower level of CapEx. The level of CapEx, we said would be between 3.5% and 4.5% of revenue. We're spending around 3% today. And as we grow, we certainly feel we can stay on the lower end of that 3.5% to 4.5% guidance. So there's no big surprise. I'm not going to come and sit here next year and tell you we're building this big asset and justify it. We fundamentally changed the mentality of our company, which I think will not only help our company but honestly help the overall industry as well. In terms of M&A, we've done our big M&A. We are constantly investing in technologies, particularly around material sciences, robotics, automation and control. We'll continue to do that. These aren't big expenditures. But we're able to do it with a relatively small amount of money or more importantly, the most valuable currency we have today is not our share or is not our stock, it's not our cash. Our most valuable currency today is our subsea engineering. So when we have academia or when we have start-up companies come to us, they're trying to understand how do you do this? We're one of the very few companies that put -- that build equipment to sit on the seafloor for 35 years without intervention, work in that hostile environment and all driven by advanced automation control, robotics, material science. So we normally will just sit down and actually trade off Subsea engineering hours for if we want equity in that start-up company as an example. So no big cash drain there either. I'm not saying if the right opportunity didn't come along, we wouldn't look at it, but we have no big white space. We don't need to go do M&A. We don't -- certainly don't need to consolidate. We are not -- we're a technology company. We're not going to do consolidation. So I think you should rest assured that there's going to be significant free cash flow generated and that we are committed to shareholder distributions.

Ati Modak

analyst
#17

Doug, what are the things that you keep an eye on as you think about the business going forward, that could be potential causes of concern that you're constantly trying to stay up to date on. What are those kinds of things? And how do you think about managing the business through those?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#18

And what do I think about?

Ati Modak

analyst
#19

Managing the business through those potential concerns?

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#20

Yes. So thanks for kind of bringing me back to reality, right? I mean everything we just talked about, honestly, I hope to you, certainly to us, we're very excited. It sounds pretty good. But look, it's -- nothing is without its challenges, right? So in our business, we're doing hundreds of projects a day, various different parts around the world, multiple different customers and they all have their own complexities. Yes, if it's iEPCI 2.0, it's much more simplified than the old work, but there's still challenges, right? We're still living in the same world as everybody else. The CTO or the configure-to-order model has simplified it because just to give you an example, one of the primary things, it's not the only thing, but one of the primary things we do is build subsea trees. That subsea tree used to have 1,000 different suppliers, 1,000 different suppliers being part of that. That's now 100, right? So we've been able to -- because again, you're doing it at the component level versus the subcomponent level. But the way that we manage the company, and this was one of the big changes was we are out there actively looking at every stage of the project, including the very beginning at where are the risks in the project? And what is -- where are we not doing well? So what do I mean by that? In our company, we break everything down and it's either red or it's green. If it's on track, if it's on budget, it doesn't matter. It could be our HR function, something within HR in terms of recruiting or it could be a subsea project or it could be financed. But if it's red, it's red, we've eliminated orange. Orange is the get out of jail free card. Most management presentations you've ever sat in, if you go and look at them, they're mainly orange and yellow. Ban orange and yellow from your company, and you'll get the truth because it's either on track or it's not on track. And if it's not on track, that's what we focus on. So we look at those reds and we see them much earlier than we used to. And because we see them much earlier, there's plenty of reds. I don't want to make you not want to be an owner of our company, but I'm being honest. There's a lot of reds, but the reds are very early stage and normally addressable within a day or a week if they're escalated at the right level. So we also encourage people to escalate the reds. Our saying is, it's okay to be red. It's not okay to stay red. So if you're red and you hide it because you're trying to solve it yourself and you don't want management to know until it's too late and it becomes a big problem, that's a problem for you. But if you bring it forward and use the health chain as we call it, then we can help address it early on in the project. So it's fundamentally changed. I don't want to suggest that I'm an anxious person by nature. My wife thinks I want to be too much in control of things. I am an anxious person, but it's a healthy anxiety now. Because when I see the reds, I know we can address them because it's early on. It used to be I didn't see the reds until quite frankly, it was too late. There was no way to recover. Now we can constantly look at things, there's decisions that we can make. There's support that we can provide. So we also -- again, it's a fundamental change in the way that the company is operating.

Ati Modak

analyst
#21

Well, Doug, that's all the time we have. So thank you so much for taking the time. I appreciate all the -- I appreciate the conversation.

Douglas Pferdehirt

executive
#22

Thank you very much, and thank you all for attending.

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