Teladoc Health, Inc. (TDOC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 11, 2020

New York Stock Exchange US Health Care Health Care Technology conference_presentation 36 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#1

All right. We'll get started. Hello, everyone. I'm Jailendra Singh, health care technology and distribution analyst at Crédit Suisse. Thanks, everyone, for joining us. Next up, we have Teladoc Health. From the company, we have Jason Gorevic, CEO; Mala Murthy, CFO; and Patrick Feeley, VP of IR. We are going to do this as a fireside chat. I have some prepared questions, which I plan to cover. We will then open the line for Q&A. And if you want to me to ask a question on your behalf, please e-mail them to me at jailendra.singh@credit-suisse.com.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#2

Thanks, Jason, Mala and Patrick for doing this. I really appreciate that. And I saw the guidance update last night for Livongo deal. So making it completely formal. The deal is closed now. That's good. Congratulations on that. Maybe if you can begin with the sharing some thoughts around key surprises, either positive or negative you've experienced since the deal announcement, either from a perspective of existing customer feedback or potential customers, employee feedback, just share some thoughts around the feedback you got since the deal announcement on Livongo?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#3

Yes, Jailendra, thanks for having us. We appreciate it. It's good to see you and wish we could be in person, but we'll make the best of it. We're very, very excited by the market reaction. It's probably even stronger than I had expected. Clients immediately saw the logic of bringing together the 2 organizations to be able to get a true end-to-end virtual care solution that's there for all of their consumers, all of their members regardless of what their health status is and the opportunity to take care of both their mind and their bodies. And so that's been phenomenal. The other thing that's been really refreshing is just how excited our combined employees are. We had our first joint town hall meeting -- it was virtual just like this -- on Friday, and we had over 2,200 people from all around the world tuned in for it. And the excitement level, the common mission, the common culture, the -- we have a running chat that goes along the side, and people can put in their comments. And everybody is just incredibly excited to now get going, right? There was the time between announce and close, and now everybody is ready to realize the combined vision. And part of that is just -- is reinforced by how strongly our clients have gotten behind it. And part of it is about achieving a common mission that both companies are really set out to do.

Mala Murthy

executive
#4

We had an in-house band that capped off the town hall. Just trying to spice it up, mix it up, make it fun. So it's good, the town hall.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#5

Good. Good to know. Just focusing on the core selling -- core business selling season. You guys gave some update -- some good positive updates on the earnings call. Anything more incremental to report there? It seems the pipeline looks pretty good. And is Livongo deal announcement having any impact on willingness of employers and health plans to work with Teladoc in any way? Or is it still too early for you to see any impact there?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#6

Well, you've already seen a couple of successful cross-sales, right? So GuideWell, the parent of Florida Blue, the first one, and obviously a very large opportunity and a large client for us. So we're really excited to see that one come through. And then we announced just literally the day of our quarterly announcement, we got notified about a successful sale to a very large Teladoc employer -- client of the Livongo diet for diabetes program. And so yes, that was an example of a client who -- they weren't even in discussions with Livongo prior to us announcing the transaction. And so I think that speaks to the velocity of impact and how quickly that makes sense for employer clients, health plans as well as I'm getting really positive reaction from hospitals and health systems who are looking to be able to take advantage of the Livongo capabilities for their own patient populations. With respect to the pipeline and the bookings, year-to-date through the end of the third quarter, we were up about 35% versus the prior year. And we also said that we expect to see the fourth quarter bookings be roughly double, maybe even more than what the third quarter bookings were. So that's all very, very positive. We continue to see the trend of multiproduct bookings continue, where this year about 2/3 of our bookings are multiproduct bookings, and that's up from about 50% the year before. And I think that will just continue to increase as we add the Livongo capabilities into the overall combined product portfolio. It makes sense, and the feedback that we're getting from our clients is that they want that full -- sort of full solution from one partner as opposed to having to go shopping for multiple point solutions that are disjointed, not integrated. And I think that's -- the portfolio that we now have and the full solution is unmatched in the marketplace. So I feel really good about how the final couple of months of the selling season are shaping up, and that really launches us in well for 2021.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#7

Great. Maybe if you can take a step back and can you remind us, the total addressable market you guys see in your business? And how has that changed with the Livongo acquisition?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#8

Yes. So we estimate the U.S. addressable market at about $121 billion, which includes about $47 billion of TAM relative to the Livongo diabetes and hypertension programs. And that's just the U.S., right? So as a global company, that's only a portion of the global opportunity. And I think it really speaks to the breadth of our offering. With each additional capability that we offer, with each additional clinical program, it expands the TAM and it expands the impact we can have on the health care system and the cost of care for our clients. And so we increase our opportunity, but we also increase the impact that we can have and the value that we bring for our clients.

Mala Murthy

executive
#9

The other thing I would add, Jailendra, to what Jason said is, if you think about just mental health alone, and we have talked about it often enough, not just in the U.S., but globally the opportunity is virtually infinite, right? It is. And we are seeing that in the anxiety that our consumers have through the pandemic and the robustness of the demand, so I would say the opportunity is vast.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#10

Fair point. So when we think about the synergy targets you've laid out with Livongo, so I know this is a 5-year target. You have talked about $0.5 billion synergy there. But in terms of first series of cross-sells, is there any particular channel you expect that synergies to start coming through? Is it like direct-to-employer contract? Or is it through health plans? Just give us a flavor of like where the synergies will be the first to come through.

Jason Gorevic

executive
#11

Yes. So why don't I start and then, Mala, you can dig a little deeper into the synergies? I think from a market perspective, we really see all of the above. We see health plans, large employers, even small employers as opportunities for cross-sell. But it doesn't stop there. As I mentioned, the hospitals and health systems I'm talking to are really interested in taking advantage of the technology and the data science underpinning the Livongo capabilities. And that's a market that the Livongo team hadn't yet penetrated. They had sold to some hospital systems just for their own employees, and the hospitals saw the value of that. But then when you combine that set of capabilities with the InTouch platform and give the ability for the data to feed sort of health nudges -- both digital health nudges as well as provide insights for the hospitals' physicians, and then you combine that with the InTouch platform's ability to reach out to the consumer in the comfort of their own home, that's a really killer combination. And I think that what I'm hearing from hospital executives is they want to be able to bring that in-house because more and more, they're being moved into value-based reimbursement. And so value-based reimbursement means they have to most efficiently and effectively deliver care to the consumer. So we see all of those channels, and then, of course, the international markets as significant opportunities. Livongo had started to think about international expansion, but hadn't really taken those steps. And with our distribution channels in the international markets, we're really excited about the opportunity, not only with our existing clients, but also to work into some of the nationalized health care systems.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#12

Okay. That's fair. Actually, want to go back to your -- again, core Teladoc stand-alone business. You guys had great membership adds this year as well as player decent utilization trends. I mean membership adds, I mean, your guidance already assumes some of the temporary members rolling off. So that shouldn't be a big deal. But on the utilization trend, that's the -- maybe you can spend some time on that. But the one concern I've got over the past 2 or 3 days is like now vaccine, some positive developments, which is good for everyone, great data point, but there are concerns that, okay, that will have a negative impact on your utilization trend. Help us understand that, that why you think that it's not going to be a case. Just spend some time on that.

Jason Gorevic

executive
#13

Well, let me start by saying, we very early sort of leaned in based on the data that we were seeing and gave an outlook of 30% to 40% growth in '21 and we're not -- we weren't naive to the fact that there was going to be a vaccine, right? So we expected a vaccine. Everybody has been working on it. And obviously, we stay close to those developments as well as the rest of the health care system. I think some of the underlying data in our existing utilization is really positive for us over the long term. You look at the growth of our specialty visits, both mental health as well as dermatology, that's not related to the coronavirus or the pandemic. That's going to be a systemic and continued increase and shift to virtual care because they're just better solutions, right? They're better solutions that are more accessible and deliver more value to the consumer. I think when you look at the increase -- the significant increase in visits for noninfectious diseases, right, things like hypertension, lower back pain, anxiety depression, that now represents 55% of our visits because shelter-in-place and the use of PPE doesn't just prevent the spread of COVID, it also prevents the spread of flu and colds and strep throat. And in a normal season, we would be seeing a significant uptick in those visits. Well, now non-infectious disease represents about 55% of our visits, whereas in a normal season, it was 35% of our visits, right? So that's another sort of secular trend that we expect to continue into the future. Now if you layer on the fact that next year, we would expect to have a more regular cold and flu season as people go back to work, go back to interacting, go back to bars and restaurants, that will just be another sort of tailwind versus the current comparable, which is a very depressed cold and flu season. Good for people. Bad for our volume of infectious diseases. And I would expect that to sort of return to normal next year. So I think when you look at across all of those things, and maybe the last thing is, we've talked a lot about the strength of our mental health business. Mental health tends to be repeat utilization, right? It's a series of visits. It's not a single episodic one and done. And so that just is another sort of feeding of the flywheel where this year, we saw 80% increase in new registrants. We saw a preponderance of our visits from new users, and we know that with a mid-60s Net Promoter Score, people come back once they use it a first time. So I don't think that this is going to be a COVID phenomenon. I think the pandemic certainly accelerated the market by probably 4 or 5 years. But this will continue into the future.

Mala Murthy

executive
#14

Yes, Jailendra, I'd also add a few things. One is, as we talked about in the last couple of earnings releases, when you look at the trends in the weeks in the quarter, right, we've looked at weeks that are more stable vis-a-vis COVID, and we continue to see pretty strong visit demand relative to our pre-COVID levels. The second thing I'd say is we invest in the flywheel, right? We have talked about how we intend to continue to invest advertising and marketing, keeping pace with revenue growth. So I would say we are continuously priming the pump, if you will, to engage with our customers such that we can help that utilization. The third thing is, remember, we've always talked about the fact that as we onboard more members onto our platform, the utilization actually expands over time. There is a ramp effect to that. And given the very significant increase in membership we've had this year, you should actually expect to see the utilization and the visit usage bear fruit down the road. So there are some very important fundamentals behind why we are so confident about the utilization and our visit momentum well beyond COVID.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#15

That's a fair point. And at this point, I'll remind everyone, if you have any questions, please e-mail them to me at jailendra.singh@credit-suisse.com. I've got one e-mail question. Let me read this to you, Jason and Mala. Visit fee-only revenue and visits were down year-over-year in third quarter, which is surprising given the favorable telehealth reimbursement dynamics. Why might that be? And could you comment on telehealth reimbursement and co-pay dynamics moving forward?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#16

Mala, you want to take that or you want me to?

Mala Murthy

executive
#17

So here's what I would say on the visit fee-only dynamics. First of all, what's most important to remember is the total amount of visit revenue matters. And as you can see, both in terms of the visit revenue growth as well as if you look at the various types of visit that have grown, the numbers are proof points itself, right? So we are seeing tremendous strength overall in visit revenue. And what's really driving that tremendous strength, if you will, in visit revenue is the fact the dynamics we have talked about before, not only is the broad consumer acceptance that we are seeing tremendously strong NPS and satisfaction scores that we are seeing broad momentum in specialty visits is something that we are seeing in our numbers. And so what I would say is, I encourage you all to focus really more on the overall visit revenue and the growth that we are seeing. Because at the end of the day, that is really what fuels our revenue scaling and translates straight down to our adjusted EBITDA margin progression.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#18

That's a fair point. I'll take the next one here. What percentage of the current 2.8 million visits per quarter in the U.S. need a referral to off-line specialists that are out of Teladoc's doctor network? And how does the referral economics work for Teladoc for the moment?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#19

Yes. So actually, a shockingly small number need to be referred out at this point. We see over 90% of our users have their needs met by their Teladoc visit and don't need a referral anyway -- anywhere. The last data I saw was only about 6% need to be referred. Frequently, if we're referring, we're referring into an urgent care center or an emergency room because they really need to be seen in a more urgent setting, where someone can suture a laceration or set a broken bone, or we do have situations where we identify someone who's in the early stages of a stroke or early stages of a heart attack. And so we're happy to be able to intervene and bring the right authorities, even dispatch an ambulance for the consumer in the event that they need it. I think one of the things that's important to understand is we don't get paid to refer to anyone. We're not incented to refer to any specific provider, right? I think that provides -- I think that is a clarity of mission for us, right? We want to make sure we're doing the best thing for the consumer and the best thing for our paying client, which is usually a health plan or an employer. And we're not beholden to any given health system who's paying us for a referral. I think that's really important because it enables us to have sort of purity of mission and focus on the best clinical care. The only time where we do work with a provider is when they're our client, right? So in the event that we stand up a private labeled telehealth solution for one of our providers, like we just announced Johns Hopkins, for example. And so in the event that Hopkins were to ask us to use some of our physicians to supplement their own workforce, and that person needed to be referred, we would obviously refer them into a Hopkins facility or a Hopkins provider because that's a white-labeled Hopkins brand and service.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#20

That's great. The -- one of the other bright spot in the quarter -- last quarter was strong pricing trends. Can you discuss the drivers there? How should we think about the long-term pricing increases going forward? And what are the key drivers there as well?

Mala Murthy

executive
#21

Yes. You think about -- when you talk about pricing, I'm assuming you're referencing PMPM. What I would say is, if you think about our pricing trends, number one, remember, when we were talking last year about the onboarding of large health -- the large populations onto a platform, we were always talking about as we anniversary out, you should be able to get out of the artificial depression, if you will, and start seeing the expansion. Well, you are seeing it now in what as we promised, you are seeing that in our numbers. The second thing I would say is, again, going back to specialty and as we look at the strength in our multi-product bookings, that translates into specialty business, and that has a positive impact on our pricing. And I would say the last is, as we have talked about the strong momentum in visits and in some of our visits included contracts, there is a natural escalating and re-rating mechanism that we have also talked about. So if you combine all of this, Jailendra, it is not surprising at all that you're seeing the pricing capability that we are seeing. And talking about the long term, here is what I would say. Whether it comes -- whether it is about the access revenue or whether it is about visit revenue, what we have been able to demonstrate in our results is the fact that we are actually able to price pretty nimbly and dynamically. We have different types of pricing models, and we continue to look at ways that we can price, frankly for a combination of things: what is the value we bring to the customer or the consumer, and what is our cost structure, right? So we have to be realistic and pragmatic about both, and that is what informs our overall pricing architecture. So I would expect us to continue to focus on pricing as we think about our gross margins and manage that.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#22

Right. Here's one more e-mail question. Given the strong momentum in BetterHelp, could you try to get a sense from them on how big this has become as a percentage of visits or in terms of revenue? Is BetterHelp an EBITDA contributor right now? Do you plan -- do they have plans to introduce chat-based Behavioral Health into the B2B product?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#23

Yes. So I'll take that. The BetterHelp business has been growing at a really, really strong rate. We don't break it out, so I won't get too specific. What we've said previously way back in the beginning of March, the last sort of large in-person meeting I can remember being at, which was our Investor Day, we said that it was over $100 million last year, and we expected it to grow over 50% this year. We've absolutely delivered on that, and the growth continues to be very strong. I think one of the key points there is that our marketing spend has continued to get more efficient. So we continue to get greater yield out of every dollar we spend on customer acquisition. And so our customer acquisition versus revenue ratio has continued to get significantly more favorable. And as a result, it is a contributor to our adjusted EBITDA. It's been a contributor to our sort of overperformance there. And we're really happy about that. That's a business that scale really matters, and we're seeing the benefits of scale in that part of the business, just like the rest of our business.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#24

Right. Here's the next one, I'm sure you just love to talk about this. How would Teladoc look like in 3 to 5 years from now? Will you look at more acquisitions in the future? Or do you think you are pretty much covered for like 3, 4 or 5 years with Livongo?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#25

I think the exciting thing to talk about is what role will we play, right, and what will the consumer experience be? Because I think if you really sort of get into what's the possibility for virtual primary care and reimagining the care experience and you think about all of our -- both technology, digital, data and human clinical expertise and capabilities, the opportunity is really to be the front door to the health care system for the consumer and be able to sort of meet them where they are for all clinical needs across the board. Will that mean clinical expansion? Sure. Absolutely. We'll continue to expand the clinical services that we offer. You probably saw that Livongo announced a partnership with Fresenius. So there's a good example of leaning into chronic kidney disease. And I think that's a natural next step when you think about cardiometabolic conditions and the opportunity to have an impact there. You'll undoubtedly see us do the same kinds of things with CHF. And then there's certainly opportunity to expand outside of that, whether it's musculoskeletal or other conditions. And it all works very well when you think about the full scope of our services, including the expert second opinion services and our 50,000 experts in 450 different specialties we rely on for that. So we can go all the way from an expert second opinion, where we're collecting the information and providing real deep insight into the best -- the diagnosis and the best care plan, all the way through taking care of someone with a chronic condition on a longitudinal basis and delivering the mental health care for them. If you think about the impact of mental health challenges of just anxiety and depression, that narrow scope of conditions and the impact that has on someone with hypertension or with diabetes, it's very significant, right, because those things -- those conditions drive behaviors that are risk factors for diabetes and hypertension, things like binge-eating or difficulty sleeping, or lack of motivation to exercise. Those are all risk factors that exacerbate hypertension and diabetes. And so the opportunity to take care of the entire person mind and body is really substantial. Will we do more acquisitions? We always look at build, buy and partner strategically to determine where the most efficient and effective way for us to keep expanding is, and do it in a way that meets the market demands rapidly.

Mala Murthy

executive
#26

Yes. What I would also add to that is one of the synergy sources that we've talked about is cross-referral. And we have talked about how, in order to drive that, we really have to integrate the data that we both have, right? We do -- we extract data from the 10 million or so visits that we do per year, Livongo has over 750 million data points that they have been able to aggregate. And so if you think about, Jailendra, it is not only the fact that as we bring these 2 companies and the data together and -- which allows us to effectively refer and cross-refer the -- it's about integrating all of those clinical offerings and the products and services that, I think, makes us truly, truly differentiated and unique. So when we think about either built by partner for the next condition or the next offering, it is the integration of that into our full suite that I think is as important as what is that next condition because that will what -- that is what will differentiate us.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#27

That's a fair point. I feel like with the Livongo transaction, your other deal sometimes gets less focused in discussion, InTouch Health, and I was very excited about that transaction as well. When you think about it now InTouch Health, Teladoc, Livongo combination, and actually, just to share with you, we had a telehealth expert -- Telehealth Director panel yesterday where guys from Geisinger, SSM Health and there was one more health system, we did a chat. And they talked about how -- I mean, they actually talked about InTouch Health and Livongo combination. So help us understand the company's positioning in the provider marketplace with these 2 transactions, like how well are you placed? And what are the opportunities there?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#28

Yes, you're exactly right. I think people have quickly forgotten how strategic the InTouch acquisition is. And to be able to bring the #1 class-rated telemedicine technology provider for hospitals into our fold and deliver that, combined with our physician workforce and now the Livongo chronic care management and data science is a really, really powerful combination. And I think that's what has enabled us to win the Hopkins business and continue to expand our footprint there. That business is growing very, very well. And I think we're just still scratching the surface. Our average deal size is increasing. The usage, as we said on the last quarterly call, through the first quarters -- through the -- the third quarter, we had delivered 3 million visits on our platform, sort of enabling those visits on behalf of our clients in the hospital and health system market. And that's just going to increase, right? And so I think the ability for us to make hospital in the home come to life for a provider is exactly the intersection of the Livongo and the InTouch technology that opens up those possibilities and maximizes the impact that the hospital or health system can have.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#29

Okay. I want to take this one e-mail question quickly, which I just got in. How should we think about operating expense growth over the medium term? What are the key buckets within OpEx you still expect to grow? For example, are we approaching critical mass in total G&A or R&D cost?

Mala Murthy

executive
#30

That's a great question. So as you all know, we have really very successfully demonstrated a track record of delivering OpEx leverage, right, whether it be on a cash basis, whether it be on a GAAP basis. And if you think about the nuances within the operating expense, I'll characterize it as follows: the first is we will continue to fuel marketing, as we just talked about, right? I do expect to continue to invest in marketing, keeping about a pace with revenue growth, whether it be through the combination of the DTC side as well as the B2B side. We actually have gotten great selling expense productivity. And I would frankly expect to. As we have increased our average deal size, as Jason just talked about, as we are selling more multi-product bookings, et cetera, I would expect to continue to see selling expense productivity and efficiency. G&A absolutely is an area of opportunity for us. And the way we will get at it is through more automation, right, whether more use of AI, more use of smarter technology to drive productivity in G&A. And the last area and the very important area that Jason alluded to a little while ago is R&D, especially in the combination as we bring together us, HHS and Livongo. I think investing in R&D judiciously is absolutely the right way to go. So Jason talked about build/buy partner, and building will require investments and R&D investments. And I'm actually quite excited by that. So we have still things to do in terms of building out our offerings portfolio, integrating all of the data. All of that is work that is well underway as part of our overall integration playbook and math. We are going about it in a very disciplined and structured way as we think about what is the vision for a totally integrated data strategy? What is the vision for a totally integrated product strategy, consumer experience? That will require R&D investments. Absolutely, it will. And we'll do it smartly and judiciously. And I will expect the right returns from it.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#31

That's a fair point. And just to wrap up, can you guys give any update on the rollout of your virtual primary care product? I know you guys have talked about that, some pilots you've been working on. When can we expect a full rollout? And how could the revenue model look like? Any early preview you can provide here?

Jason Gorevic

executive
#32

Yes. I'm incredibly excited and really pleased with the results of the pilot. I think some interesting learnings, really diverse set of diagnoses, over 70 diagnoses. Many first diagnoses of things like hypertension, prehypertension, diabetes, prediabetes, I think 43% of the hypertension or prehypertension diagnosis were first-time diagnosis. So the opportunity for us to really make a difference and catch something early and then bring to bear those Livongo capabilities is really powerful. A lot of overlap of mental health and physical health, where the virtual PCP, if you will, has referred into some of our behavioral health offerings and gotten the consumer started on a course of therapy and maybe brought in a psychiatrist as well to assist with medication management. So there are really powerful results there. From a satisfaction perspective -- member satisfaction perspective, it's off the charts. I mean literally over 90 Net Promoter Score, which is almost unheard of anywhere. And then the other thing that's interesting is the diversity and the breadth of the demographics of the population who has leaned in and embraced this virtual primary care model. It's not the young invincibles, right. This is a very representative cross-section of the population. It tends to be a lot of people who didn't necessarily have a primary care relationship previously, which is roughly 50% of the population. So there's a tremendous addressable market there. And when you talk about the economics, the economic opportunity is massive. So I think it will start with a higher PMPM than we've gotten before, plus visit fees, and the visit fees will be a diverse set of visit fees depending on what services we're bringing to bear for the consumer. And I think over time it will morph to something that's a little more value-based reimbursement, where we get to share in the upside that we create and the savings that we create. And ultimately potentially take population risk and/or primary care capitation or something like that because the breadth of services that we have now and will continue to build out, can have a massive impact on a broad swath of the population.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#33

All right. This is a great conversation, but I guess we are out of time. So we will leave it there. Thanks a lot for participating at our conference, and have a nice rest of the day.

Jason Gorevic

executive
#34

Jailendra, thank you.

Mala Murthy

executive
#35

Thanks so much.

Jailendra Singh

analyst
#36

Thanks, Jason. Thanks, Mala. Take care.

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