Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TENAGA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
May 28, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, everyone. Thank you for joining our First Quarter FY 2025 Analyst Briefing. A very warm welcome to Yang Berbahagia Dato Ir. Megat Jalaluddin Bin Megat Hassan, President and Chief Executive Officer of Tenaga Nasional Berhad; and our Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi. I also extend a very warm welcome to each and every one of you joining us today in this call. We also have 73 attendees joining us virtually via Webex. Today's session will be covered in two parts. Firstly, our President and CEO, Dato Ir. Megat, who will first provide an overview of TNB's group strategy and outlook, followed by our Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Badru, who will share on TNB's Fourth Quarter FY 2024 performance. We will then open for Q&A before we end the session. With that, I'm pleased to invite Dato Ir. Megat to kick off our session for today. Thank you.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveThank you, Edwin. [Foreign Language] and very good morning. Once again, thank you very much for being here, given the opportunity for Tenaga to share some of the performance in the first quarter of 2025. It's always happy to see some familiar faces. Even though the physical crowd may be less this time around, I can see the numbers are quite big into the Webex, or the Internet system. I do hope the physical -- less physical presence do not indicate the less interest for Tenaga Nasional. So I'm pleased to share some of our key performance highlights for the first quarter 2025. Amid the dynamic operating environment, TNB delivered a stable performance recording a PAT of MYR 1,040.8 million. These results underscore the effectiveness of our strategic initiatives implemented as well as our continued focus on operational excellence and sustainable growth. On the regulatory front, the first regulatory period RP4 has taken effect from 1st January 2025 with the total allowed CapEx of up to MYR 42 billion to support planned investment and operational improvement throughout the next 3 years. With that, we are pleased to report that as of the first quarter 2025, we have successfully utilized 34% of our base CapEx, demonstrating our commitment and focus to deliver our regulatory targets. And we are, at this point in time, very much on track to fully utilize our CapEx allocated for 2025. On the electricity demand, I'm glad to share that yesterday, 27 May, 2025, we recorded a new peak demand for the country of 20.752 gigawatt. And correspondingly, at the same time we recorded our single day highest energy consumption at 436.9 gigawatt hour. So this data and trend represent a positive outlook, reflecting the growing energy needs across Malaysia. Not forgetting that, we also remain focused to commit on our reduction for carbon emissions, and glad to share that we are on track to achieve our 5% reduction in carbon intensity for Scope #1 starting 2025. This is supported by the continuous expansion of RE energy capacity as well as implementing directly the effective carbon management strategies. On the demand itself, a deep dive on the power demand. I think the performance for the first quarter is a stable demand, reflecting continued resilience in core segment of the economy. Notably, we see the commercial sector contribute a solid 5.1%. This is very much powered by the increased consumption from the data centers operations. This growth underscored the rising energy demand of Malaysian economy and highlight the importance of strengthening our grid infrastructure to support the high-growth energy-intensive industries. On the data center, we see a good momentum moving forward. Data center remain a key player currently in our subsector of our consumption. And we can see that if we compare the last quarter, the consumptions for data center increased 3.3x year-on-year, rising from 247 gigawatt hour to 836 gigawatt hour, reflecting the rapid growth in this subsector. In terms of the loading, we can see a steady increase as promised by the data centers where there are going to be a phased kind of consumption of load. And the localization grew rapidly from 148 megawatt last year, equivalent March to 485 megawatt. So under the Green Lane Pathway to support the data center players, we have successfully completed 21 DC projects with a total capacity of 2.8 gigawatts. In addition, 5 new Energy Supply Agreement, ESA has been signed, securing an additional of 666 megawatts. So a very nice number, triple 6. Some people refer the number to be the number of the devil, 666, but this is coming from the consumption of data center capacity. I think it's a pure coincidence, this number. So looking from the globe overall perspective, there are 43 projects for data centers, and the secured capacity is totaling 6.4 gigawatt hour. So this is probably about 20% of our capacity -- generation capacity for the country. So I think the past year, we have seen that the ability for us to deliver the power at speed and scale together with the resilience and performance of the grid, making Malaysia and Tenaga, the positive hub for data center investment, and we hope that we can reinforce our role in driving the digital transformation for the country as well as for the region. As highlighted earlier, we have the new system peak recorded at 27 May, 2025 last night, about 8:30 p.m. So this is another characteristic that is happening as well as our supply and demand trend, where we are seeing that the demand -- or the peak of the demand from the grid is happening at the night. Because in totality, if we fully understand and analyze, the total peak for the country is much higher than 20,752, simply because during the day, those additional megawatts is actually powered by our solar. So the 20,752 is actually the grid maximum demand, which happened last night at 8:30 p.m. So this is another interesting characteristic. This is the third system peak recording in this month alone, surpassing the previous peak of 20 -- 0 -- 20,457 at the 14 May and so forth. So we are seeing this sustained upward trends with respect to electricity demand in the last -- in the beginning of this quarter. And for those who have covered Tenaga Nasional for many, many years, we fully understand that the second quarter as far as the trend of consumption of electricity was the best quarters for Tenaga Nasional, so in the past. So we are looking or expecting same momentum for this quarter. So we maintain our positive outlook with respect to the projected demand of 3.5% to 4.5% in line with the projected GDP. Importantly, under the IBR revenue cap mechanism, TNB remain neutral, ensuring stable earnings and providing us with the financial certainty to the long-term plan and invest confidently in Malaysia energy future. In terms of the response that we are making based on the sustained and positive outlook of the growth. Happy to share with everyone, a couple of steps taken by the regulator to ensure that we always have the ability and capacity to supply the increasingly demand. The first, recently, the government through the Energy Commission put up Request for Proposal covering the conventional generation into 2 categories: Category 1, extension of the existing gas power plant. Second, development of a new generation capacity. So this RFP indicates a very good signal to the market, saying that the demand is on the increase. At the same time, we are making the preparation to cater for those demand. And this is a good news definitely for Tenaga Nasional, not only from the perspective of providing the RFP for our generation business. But at the same time, we understand that the increase of the peak demand means that the infrastructure for the transmission and distribution will also be on the increase as well. This is where we are quite confident with respect to the regulated CapEx of up to MYR 42 billion. We believe that this opportunity for the generation capacity to be added on. It will be coupled by the infrastructure strengthening to ensure that the generation of electricity will actually reach the customer at the end of the day. So we are quite confident by those recent development on top of the LSS5 and also LSS5+ that was recently announced by the government. At the same time, on the RE front, there's also announcement by the government with respect to the increase of the NEM Rakyat quota by additional 100 megawatts, bringing the total allocation to 700 megawatts. Here, of course, the opportunity for one of our subsidiary despite to strengthen the position on the rooftop solar business and accelerate the adoption of solar generation among the residential users. As we move into the Regulatory Period 4, we have started mobilizing the total CapEx of MYR 42.82 billion, a strong testament to our commitment to grid strengthening, supporting growth and delivering long-term value. So as mentioned, this includes base CapEx of MYR 26.55 billion and a contingent CapEx of MYR 16.27 billion. At this particular point in time, with the planning that we have for the contingent CapEx based on the projections -- the planning and the projections, we expect to utilize approximately 70% of the allocation by the year -- by the end of RP4, meaning that we have some good project being lined up for the grid at least to utilize 70% of the CapEx allocated -- of the contingent CapEx allocated. And we believe these numbers [Foreign Language] will increase further as we see the new requirements and development for the country. In terms of the delivery of the CapEx, for the first quarter, we have utilize about 34% of the base CapEx, and we are also committed of [indiscernible]. So as you can see, we are actually utilizing both the base and the contingent CapEx. For the year 2025, our projected CapEx spending today, we can see a number reaching up to [indiscernible] billion. So meaning that we are -- if you look from the base and contingent CapEx category, we may be spending about a MYR 9 billion to MYR 10 billion coming from the base CapEx and between MYR 1 billion to MYR 2 billion from the continuous -- contingent CapEx. So that is the outlook that we have today at the end of the first quarter with respect to the utilization of the RP4 CapEx. So the committed projects are mainly for demand growth, including the key infrastructure project for data centers, ECRL and as mentioned, or as we read in the paper, the progress of ECRL is actually ahead of time. So this is where the Tenaga Nasional is building up 12 interconnection facility along the ECRL from Gombak to Kota Bharu and [Foreign Language], the project is progressing very well. So the rest of the projects that we have put in and committed are very much in line with the National Development Plan, RMK project. In terms of the recovery mechanism for the contingent CapEx, we have a number or a series of discussion with the Energy Commission. We are finalizing the recovery mechanism so that it become automatic in that sense. So we will update everyone. Possibly by this quarter, we can conclude the most effective recovery mechanism on the contingent CapEx. So in summary, we expect to utilize up to MYR 12 billion regulated CapEx for 2025. Definitely, our priority is to invest strategically in future grid ready to make the grid ready for the Malaysian energy transition objective. Next, as part of our recent effort to strengthen our core business, we continue to forge a strategic partnership to accelerate the adoption of solar energy and electric vehicle. This is on the customer front, both empowering the customers with the green lifestyle. But at the same time we know that is going to be important for our business as well. So in driving the NETR ambition, so we are actively supporting scalable and inclusive solar adoption. To date, one of the collaboration with Sime Darby, which should become another mechanics as far as solar adoption for the country is to harness the solar power under a scheme call, Commodity RE Aggregation Mechanism, CREAM, which was announced by the government in March 2025. So this is the first collaboration for us to kick start CREAM with a high expectation from the regulator and also the public in an effort to make green energy, especially democracy to commoditize the energy, especially green energy to the public. So this is a community type of project whereby the solar generation can be sold back to the community, a first step for the next phase, which is going to be, we believe, a peer-to-peer trading among the generators and the consumers for solar. So CREAM for us is another mechanism that we are excited about, and we believe we are in a good position to play this -- in this role, both for the country and also for the business of Tenaga. So for this so-called cooperation with Sime Darby the city of Elmina. We have a planned capacity of 1.9 megawatt peak, whereby the residential house owners are given the opportunity to participate by giving the access to the solar rooftop. So this is another element to ensure that the masses of the country can participate in the energy industry. So these collaborations mark significant steps towards a broader participation of the population of the country in our RE energy transition. Looking into the EV space. We are working the foundations in terms of trying to make an EV a good revenue for Tenaga, so there are a number of collaborations that we are starting that we have adopted and managed to secure. The first is collaboration with Perodua, which includes the installation of the EV chargers at the Perodua centers as well as in the public at the same time. We're also supporting Perodua in terms of their sustainability journey by installing solar panel at the selected outlet. So this is a combi of EV and RE. The collaborations that will bring benefit both for Perodua and Tenaga Nasional. So in terms of the partnership with Perodua, there's also the third element with respect to the adoption of Malaysian RE Energy Certificate (sic) [ Malaysian Renewable Energy Certificate ], mREC, which we offer to Perodua as part of their sustainability objective. Secondly, we are partnering with many so-called dwellers out there with respect to installation of EV charger. And we are happy to provide the info that apart from the strategic partnership with mall operators like AEON, strategic partnership with food chain like McDonald's, we have secured another important category, which is coming from the hospitality business that is the hoteliers. So we start our collaboration with Casuarina Meru in Ipoh and Kuala Kangsar by supporting the installation of EV charger at this hotel. So this is the first so-called collaboration with the hospitality business, and we hope that this will spur the momentum for a similar hotel providing us the space to install EV charger. So as far as Casuarina Meru is concerned, they have 2 hotels. One is in Ipoh and the other one is in the beautiful town of Kuala Kangsar, and we have managed to install both in the month of May. So hopefully, we would like to see in fact, in Perak, apart from these 2, we are in discussion with many parties and we are getting a good response from none other than the state government itself. So this is a space of RE as well as EV, which we are making our way more aggressively, especially in the EV ecosystem. Moving on from domestic to our international businesses. We continue to make significant strides in strengthening our global footprints. First, our investment in the United Kingdom. We are pleased to share that at one of our solar farm project at Eastfields, we are in the final stage of grid connections and has commenced power export in April 2025. What does it mean that now the power transport is at the so-called trial basis. It is yet to go into the full COD, which is part of the process, meaning that we are able to get the -- we are now grid connected, but the transfer of energy is still at the trial stage. So that is the first one. Second, we also do a solar park at a name called Bunker Hills. We expect this Bunkers Hill solar farm will start exporting in June 2025. So we are very positive that the investment will start to generate revenue starting from this quarter. And this is part and parcel of our international RE ambition. Second, in Australia, recently, we have been awarded a set of equivalent to 1,300 megawatt capacity, which is inclusive of the 3 technologies, solar, wind as well as battery storage. So we are happy that we are one out of the 4 winners with respect to the bidding process undertaken by the New South Wales state government to power up what they call renewable energy zone at the border of New South Wales and ACT. So we are making our footprint in Australia with this development of equivalent to 1,300 megawatts comprises of wind, solar and battery on top of the current 100-megawatt operating assets that we have as part of the RE assets -- operating assets. So this is another positive news for us. Development will start soon because the asset has been given to us. On top of that, we have our services company, REMACO expanding its internal service. Recently, REMACO through our -- together with our partner in Kuwait, Al Dhow Engineering were awarded a 7-year contracts for maintenance, repair and overhaul or commonly known as MRO at Sabiya Power Station and what -- so if you look from the book order perspective of REMACO, REMACO currently has a book order of up to MYR 4.5 billion over the next 5 years. So this achievement not only reinforce the cooperation between Malaysia and Kuwait and also position REMACO as an international MRO leader and provide us a good footing in the sense that we know we can provide our technical expertise and capabilities competitively because all the awards that's secured by REMACO are through open competitive bidding. Happy to share also yesterday during the ASEAN GCC Summit, we -- meaning REMACO and Al Dhow has signed another MOU strengthening this relationship to go together with respect to the services business, not only in Kuwait, but in the whole GCC region. So we hope that we can share more good news in the future with respect to the REMACO expansion plan in the Middle East. In terms of our regional business, which we are going to focus on the regional interconnection and making the cross-border energy trade a reality. Today, we have 2 main scheme that provide the opportunity for the cross-border electricity trade basically from Malaysia to Singapore. First through ENEGEM operated by single buyer. We have embarked on a 1-year pilot for 100-megawatt capacity. So currently, we can see 50 megawatt is already being utilized on a daily basis, meaning that in most days of the first quarter, there are [ a spot ] of 50 megawatts of green energy from Malaysia to the offtaker in Singapore. For the first quarter 2025, we have exported 108,000 megawatt hour through the ENEGEM scheme. On the other scheme, the bilateral supply with Singapore Keppel Electric. This is for the -- what we call a brown generation for supply up to 100 megawatt. It is progressing under the LTMS power integration project. So in this case, it is the MS part of it, Malaysia to Singapore export. This is also getting momentum in the first quarter of 2025. And we have exported brown-to-green generation, 175-megawatt hour under this enhancement. While we plan on enabling role in the ASEAN Power Grid by facilitating flow system, the regional interconnections are providing a new revenue stream in the form of the willing charges and transition fee specific to [indiscernible]. And in the last 1 or 2 days, I'm sure most of you are reading the -- to support the ASEAN Power Grid and energy tendering -- trading among ASEAN countries. There is a collaboration between Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore to that effect with the signing of a JDA comprises of businesses from Malaysia, Vietnam as well as Singapore. So I think this news that we shared with you, development that we mentioned demonstrate that we would like to create value for the company as well as for the country. And together with the international expansion, we think that Tenaga Nasional is in a good position for the expansion and provide the best to the shareholders. So moving on to our key strategic achievement across the 3 strategic pillars in first quarter. So let me update some of the important initiatives and projects that we are undertaking for the Deliver Clean Generation, our Nenggiri hydro project achieved 45% project completion, meaning that our Nenggiri hydro project is back now on time. There was an initial delay because of the diversion of the river, but the project team has managed to get it back on time. So we expect the so-called COD to be on time at this particular point in time. Second project is the Sungai Perak Hydro Life Extension Programme. This is at 80% overall completions in the first quarter. The EPCC has commenced for Temengor, Bersia and Kenering, and we are in the process of doing the EPCC contract for another hydro project, a smaller Sungai Perak Hydro Project capacity. So we are glad that the rehab of Sungai Perak Hydroelectric station now has commenced and this is done in phases to ensure that this will take us for the next 2 to 3 years. We have to ensure that the availability of supply through hydro generation, but at the same time doing the rehab. What does it mean that we are going to take the generators one by one to ensure that we also support the generation through hydro. For the hybrid hydro-floating solar project in Kenyir, which we started with 100 megawatt peak, we are currently at the technical evaluations EPCC tender with 62% of predevelopment progress recorded. Predevelopment progress is the predevelopment works with respect to the sites, inclusive of the technical and environmental assessment. So again, this is positive with respect to the clean energy generations that we are undertaking. So for the land solar, I think I've highlighted the achievement. We expect the COD for both Bunkers Hill and Eastfields totaling up to 100 megawatt peak to be in this second quarter. For the Green Power Programme, which is domestically, we are developing the solar farm or the corporate PPA. All the site progress are good, on track, and we expect the COD to be towards the end of this year. On the centralized solar park, we are having active discussion with respective authorities and potential customers. And we -- this is going to be under the CRESS scheme. So we will share the better progress in time to come in the next few months with respect to the CRESS project. Lastly, we are also working our financial close for the LSS5 500 megawatt that was awarded through the bidding projects. So those are the progress with respect to our generation portfolio domestically as well as overseas for all the projects that is under construction. The second pillar is on the developed energy transition network. There is a pilot project that we are currently undertaking. The first installation of best for the grid. The project cost will be about MYR 700 million for 100 megawatt, 400-megawatt hour capacity of battery. These projects has started. We are at the 39% completion. And we have commenced the so-called the IF, the Interconnection Facility construction work. On the key projects on distribution, smart meters, this is progressing well, 20% in the first quarter. Cumulatively, 4.5 million customers on smart meters as of the first quarter. Another second project with respect to the ensuring the ability and performance of our system. Distribution automation, we are making a good progress and the progress is part and parcel of the so-called RP4 delivery of the CapEx as well. So 70% in the first quarter. On the Dynamic Energy Solution, the customer play on EV, first quarter, we commissioned 14 EV chargers. The target for 2025 is 250. On the Green Lane supply connection for EV, today, we have completed 2,000 -- sorry, 2 megawatt of supply to the CPOs, the chargers. We expect to complete the 8 megawatt in the year 2025. At the same time, we are receiving concessions from 309 EV charger projects. The total demand is about 135. So we are getting a good response with respect to the charge point operator who wants to actually chargers -- public chargers and some of those will be undertaken by TNB itself. So those are the perspective with respect to electric vehicle. Again, you can see from the statistic in the market, the first quarter this year is a strong EV car sales that happened for the -- we believe the momentum will continue until the end of the year. And at the end of the year, we expect another S-curve when we see Perodua introducing into the market. So our challenge today is actually to install the charger ahead of the S-curve of the adoption of EV for the country. On this park, first quarter secured 18-megawatt peak, target 100 megawatt. So this is on top of the 500 megawatts that this park has secured. So this is the delivery and Alhamdulillah, the delivery is according to plan. On energy efficiency, we are also seeing the customers taking a positive response to one of our Energy Budget feature in myTNB. So today, we see the sufficient of this Energy Budget feature, which provide information and guidance to customers how to save electricity basically, now increased to 1.5 million users. So hopefully, this is part and parcel of our objective that is while we want to adopt RE, EE is something that we can also start off. But we also believe that EE is actually before RE for the benefit of not only the country, but also the customers. So next, I will pass to our CFO to provide the details with respect to our financial performance, which I believe this is the session the analysts are looking forward to. Thank you.
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveThank you, Dato, and good afternoon, everyone. I'm sure you have seen the numbers that we released yesterday, and I hope you are as excited as we are to a very encouraging start for the year. And this is actually, we believe, where we have registered the first quarter 2025 performance, which is driven overall by stable demand as well as a demonstration that our performance remains resilient during this period. So this is obviously a manifestation of our operational strength as well as sustained growth momentum in terms of demand to the customer. You have seen that as far as revenue is concerned, it's a significant jump of 17.6% at MYR 16 billion as opposed to MYR 13.6 billion that we recorded last year. So this is actually contributed mainly by the increase of electricity sales by 17.5%. And together with that, of course, as far as you are aware, this is also coming into account the adjustment made under the IBR framework. So this is all the part of the overall environment and framework to make sure that our revenue is resilient and sustained irrespective of the economic environment. So if we move straight to the more exciting part about EBITDA and profitability, obviously, if you look at the EBITDA, we are recording MYR 5.2 billion, which is 7.9% year-on-year, showing the improvement of our operational performance. So if you look at the EBITDA margin, we are actually improving the margin further from last year 30% to 32.7% this year. So obviously, on our financial statement, you are aware that we've got revenue and ICPT line. And with the changes from RP3 and RP4 and all, we believe that the better performance is actually not on the numerator, but on the denominator where you should include both revenue and ICPT as part of the ICPT now have moved into the revenue line. So it's a better reflection of our operational performance, and we are pleased that this demonstrates that the first quarter has been a very good start for the company. So that actually flows straight into our PAT, where at a PAT of MYR 1,040.8 million. That is a significant 53.5% year-on-year increase compared to MYR 677.9 million that we recorded same period last year. So I think what we are saying is in the overall scheme of things, this reflects that we have the operational resiliency and the stable demand actually has contributed to overall good performance for the first quarter. But as you have seen from the number as well, we do actually enjoy the benefit of strengthening of Malaysian ringgit against the U.S. dollars, and that is a reflection of the overall economy doing better as well. So that is actually to the sum of almost MYR 210 million contributing to our overall first quarter number. You will also acknowledge that when you comb-through our numbers yesterday, there is actually higher tax amount that we are recording this year. And despite all that, we're still recording a much better profitability as well. So the higher tax number obviously stem from 2 reasons: the first one, of course, with the overall improved profitability, it's only normal that we'll be paying more tax. But the other component is on the cessation of the reinvestment allowance, which we are no longer enjoying in -- starting from this year. But despite all that, we're still recording a much better profitability. So that's why as far as financial is concerned, we are very encouraged that this is a good start for the year. And this is, again, a demonstration that we have a resilient operations, and we have a prudent financial management in place. And most importantly, overall, there is a positive regulatory framework that enable us to continue delivering good financial performance for the company. I move to the second one on the technical performance of the group. So obviously, as a technical company, our earnings are supported by improved generation performance, solid technical performance. This is marked by improved generation output and most importantly, our continuous delivery and execution of world-class network reliability in terms of performance. So on the first line, if you talk about EAF in terms of generation, we actually recorded a much better 82% availability factor in the first quarter compared to 75.4% in the same period last year. So we're very encouraged that overall in the first quarter, we have actually recorded very improved plant performance overall. And this is, of course, worth mentioning [indiscernible] as well since coming back at the end of last year has been in full operation and doing very well. So that is very comforting to us, and that's something that we continue doing. So as far as availability is concerned, this is high on our agenda. That is our attention where we remain focused on maintaining this high availability, and we believe that a target of 83.2% that we have set out for ourselves is within reach for this year. So on the second line, if we talk about transmission minutes, we're actually recording a very exceptional first quarter system minutes of 0.001 minutes, well below our internal threshold of 1.5 minutes for 2025. So this is something that we are working very strongly to make sure that our commitment to maintain a reliable and stable transmission network is actually measurable and quantifiable. So this is something that we are focusing and we'll continue doing for the rest of the year. For distribution network SAIDI minutes, we also improved in terms of the first quarter, where we recorded 11.63 minutes compared to 11.95 minutes in the first quarter last year. So this is mostly driven by 2 key components that we are putting in place and a lot of focus on. The first one being distribution automation as well as predictive analytics initiative, which actually have significantly enhanced our network reliability. As some of you may aware, distribution automation, DA for short, is a key role in enabling remote monitoring and control of network assets, ensuring fast and efficient power restoration during supply interruptions. So this is part of all the investment that we're making into the grid to make sure that -- as well as distribution network to make sure that we reduce the supply interruptions. While the second component, which is the predictive underground 11 kV cable breakdown initiative, which we started in September 2024, actually aims to proactively prevent cable failure before it happens so that we can do targeted maintenance to make sure that we further do it proactively, make sure it doesn't happen in the first place. So these are 2 main components that we continue investing going forward, has enabled us to safeguard our performance of the asset, which most importantly, will ensure that we continue to obtain the regulated earnings on this world-class network. Moving along into a bit more financial in terms of capital management. You would notice as well that as far as receivable is concerned, we actually recorded very much improved collection, which has strengthened our overall cash flow position. Tenaga has been doing since last year, paying down our debt and making sure that we have an optimized capital structure while rewarding the shareholders at the same time. So you will notice that as far as receivable is concerned, this is to us a positive indicator of improved collection performance at our end, which continue to strengthen our cash flow position further. So as far as trade receivable is concerned, it goes down from MYR 5.1 billion to MYR 4.4 billion, and this is actually coming from encouraging customer payment behavior on the back of continued economic growth of the country. So that continued to be a very positive signal for us, but we must also acknowledge the fact that we have spent a lot of time on our end to make sure that we've got better and more targeted collection initiatives. So that is bearing fruit, and that's something that we will continue doing. And while we are on the subject of receivable, you also noticed that ICPT -- actually ICPT receivables from MYR 5.1 billion to only MYR 1 billion. So there are 2 factors to it, of course. The first one is the fact that the global coal price has stabilized. So as a reference, same time this year, it was actually at around $165 per tonne compared to today, we are around $81 only per tonne. But most importantly, this actually goes to the fact that as far as ICPT cost recovery is concerned, we have fully recovered the government portion of ICPT cost recovery for both FY 2024 full year as well as the first half of 2025. So for 2024 full year, we fully recovered MYR 3.4 billion covering the period from January to December 2024. And for first half of this year, which we're supposed to recover for the last 6 months of 2024, we have already fully recovered MYR 2.2 billion. So all that is due from the government until June 2025 is already been recovered already. So these positive recoveries as well as very accommodative framework under the IBR continue to show that we are in -- we have the continuous support as well as alignment with the government in making sure that ICPT mechanism works and continue to support the overall development of energy transition to support the growth of the country. So this also affect obviously something that we take a lot of comfort in making sure that this will only help us to maintain a stable cash flow position. And together with a much more normalized fuel cost environment, we would be able to continue making sure that we have an optimized capital structure. And I just wanted to lastly talk about much stronger collection that we have demonstrated in the first quarter, where during the quarter, our collection actually improved from 31 days last year same quarter, down by 4 days to 27 days only this quarter. So yes, as I mentioned earlier, this is also a reflection of the fact that the customers are enjoying good business environment as well as continued growth. So they have been able to, I would say, pay their dues on time. But most importantly, this is also the fact that at our end, we actually have 2-pronged focus where we are trying to put a lot of efforts to make sure that we continue to pursue long outstanding debts while improving our collection efficiency of the overall ongoing collection. So this is a very important subject that we will continue to do this year. But simultaneously, I think as a forward-looking organization, we know that there is a lot of focus to make sure that digital enhancement play a key role in making sure we have a good collection. So we actually have rolled out a digital enhancement to our MyTNB apps, and 2 key areas that we focus on is actually on seamless autopay as well as direct debit sign-up. So obviously, enabling it to the app has made it easier for our customers who will actually improve our collection overall. So that is on the domestic side. But of course, we do not forget as well on our business side, where on MyTNB's app, we also included and upgraded the feature to make sure that payment is actually more convenient to our customers. So this is a part where we are taking a lot of approach to make sure that technological improvement actually make our customers' life better. So this is part of the overall effort to make sure that the customer experience will be a lot better for Tenaga going forward. So I think as far as the overall capital management and financial situation is concerned, we believe that going forward, based on combination of stabilizing fuel prices, very strong collection trend and the fact that we have a very positive regulatory environment supported by the government, we would be able to facilitate and making sure that we have a much more optimized capital structure this year. So that's why you have seen that as far as the capital is concerned, we have not made any drawdown this year, and we don't expect to make any big drawdown this year either because we are optimizing what we have and making sure that the capital that we have within us are optimized to generate more return to our shareholders. So with that, I guess, I'll hand over back to Dato Megat to share the outlook going forward as well. Thank you.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveThank you very much, CFO Badru for the sharing on the financial results first quarter. So moving ahead, we anticipate the demand growth for this year to be in the range of 3.5% to 4.5%, in line with the projected GDP growth. So this reflects a resilient and expanding economy. We are foreseeing the importance of our ongoing investment to meet future energy demands and at the same time, advance our net zero ambitions. On CapEx forecast, as mentioned previously, we expect to spend up to MYR 20 billion this year. That's the figure that we can envisage at this particular point in time with approximately MYR 12 billion allocated for the regulated business and the MYR 8 billion for our nonregulated business, mostly for the generations conventional as the RE generation construction that we are now currently undertaking. So this investment are critical in supporting our growth strategy, while we remain at the forefront of the energy sector. Nevertheless, to support our growth strategy, as mentioned by CFO, our active capital allocation will be there, leveraging on our strong financial position to fund the expansion. This is supported by proactive working capital management in ensuring deployment and delivery of our investment target. On the carbon emission and sustainability objectives, we aim to achieve the target of 5% annual reduction in carbon emission intensity for Scope 1 for the year 2025. And the numbers so far indicated we are very much on the right track. And this is -- will also support our longer-term commitment to achieve 35% carbon emission intensity reduction by 2035 and net zero by 2050. So it is about 5% annual reduction, achieve 35% by 2035 and net zero by 2050. So thank you very much. I think now we are open for...
Operator
operatorThank you, and Dato, Megat and Mr. Badru for your presentation just now. Let us now transition to the Q&A session. We will begin by taking questions from the attendees here in the room, followed by those joining us on Webex. With that, I open the floor for questions. Please feel free to raise your hand and our staff will pass the microphone to you and you may proceed to ask your questions. [Operator Instructions]
Abdul Hadi bin Abdul Manaf
analystMy name is Hadi from CLSA. I have 2 questions. Number one is on the sales growth. So if you look at quarter-on-quarter, there's a negative number for industrial as well as commercial segment. I know you talked about the data center, there's a strong growth, 20% quarter-on-quarter, but can you share a bit more color on your customers other than the data center players for the first quarter? Second question is on the effective tax rate. So with cession of the tax allowance, what would be the fair effective tax rate for 2025?
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveThank you very much. Thank you, Hadi. I will take the first question with respect to the demand. Yes, from the numbers, we can see that if we compare quarter-to-quarter, there is a slight demand growth. If I'm not mistaken, it's about 0.4% -- 0.41% comparatively from the first quarter of last year. And we also noticed that this is contributed from the lower consumption from the industrial. And if we dig further, it is very much related to the so-called manufacturing of the electronics that provide those reductions. But nevertheless, we are upbeat with respect to data centers, which is under our tariff category, it is under a commercial tariff. And we are also seeing a good demand from our hospitality business, meaning that the traveling that probably there are more holidays in the first quarter, respectively. So this is the subsector that provide the increase. So in summary, we are seeing one single subsector that is being reduced. The others is either remaining the same. And some we are seeing a good positive growth. Nevertheless, as I mentioned, we are seeing a better performance April and May with respect to the demand. And as we know, second quarter is the indications of the demand of the country based on the trend that we had previously. For the second question, our CFO can provide the info.
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveOn the effective tax rate, I think, not only Hadi, we've got a few questions online as well from Rahul as well on the effective tax rate. Yes, as mentioned earlier, in terms of the tax impact for the first quarter, it's actually around MYR 80 million higher because of the cessation of the reinvestment allowance. But obviously, the whole amount is also bigger because of the much improved profitability of the company overall. So we are obviously taking step to see how we can optimize our taxation amount going forward, but this is something that's probably going to take much longer than we would like it to be. But I think this is the part for us as far as we are concerned, we're paying tax because we are making better profit. That's good for the overall country as well, right? So -- but as far as our forecasting and I would say, estimating is concerned, we are forecasting a figure of around 30% effective tax rate for this year. So that's much higher than usual, but that's still something that we think would be quite fair for estimation for our overall profitability this year.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is Sean from RHB. I have 3 questions. The first question is related to the energy demand as well. Because of the lower energy demand, we have seen the regulatory revenue adjustments were about MYR 2 billion being recognized. Can you remind me again how is these numbers being compensated? Is it on a quarterly basis or half yearly? That's my first question. And second question is regarding your cross-border energy sales. What is the -- how much of it is related to green energy of what you have done -- of what you have sold? And what is the mechanism? How much is the billing charges? And are both scheme pilot projects are under the same schemes in terms of how you price to your customers? And the third question is regarding your pilot project on your BEPSS. What is the commercial terms? Is it being compensated as a power plant? Or is it tabulated under CapEx -- regulatory CapEx under your TNB business? Yes, these are my questions.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveYes. Maybe CFO want to take the first question.
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveYes. So if you look at the ICPT numbers inside the adjustment today, which affected a lot in terms of the revenue, obviously, we're talking about 2 main components here, the fuel cost. So you will notice that as far as the fuel cost is concerned, actually, we have already -- cost. But on the revenue adjustment for SB gen, which is actually in terms of the units being generated, it's actually lesser than being expected. So because of that, there is under recovery in terms of generation. That's why it is being adjusted, but it's adjusted through ICPT. So as far as ICPT is concerned, of course, you recognize it, but the actual recovery will be delayed by 6 months. So that's the most important part that explains the revenue in terms of the ICPT and revenue line for this quarter. But in terms of the overall revenue cap adjustment, it will be through annual regulatory adjustment so that you will see that a bit later.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveThank you, CFO. On the cross-border power trades, in terms of the scheme, there are basically 2 schemes. One is the Green Energy power trading, which is under ENEGEM and the nongreen, which we call it brown because it's a combination of gas or even coal from the grid. It is under the scheme of LTMS. This is a broader scheme that coming from -- the intent is coming from Laos, Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore. That's where the LTMS comes about. So with respect to the pricing, definitely, there is a difference between green energy price and also the non-green energy price. So this is where the price is basically decided upon the willing buyer, willing seller, meaning that it is agreed upon with the offtaker in Singapore. And currently, for the offtaker for LTM is Sembcorp. The offtake for the non-green is Keppel. So this is where the 2 transactions happening and the rate definitely is not the same. Of course, green is being traded at a slightly higher compared to the non-green. So in terms of the part of the tariff that transaction is the wheeling charges. Yes, there is wheeling charges that will probably where TNB at the current mode is most interested in. So there is also part of the portion that goes for the wheeling charges, which is the work that TNB has to do to ensure the power transfer happen. And there is a rate part from the total sales price, there is a rate -- face rate for the wheeling charges. And so if I can summarize the first quarter, the revenue that's coming from Energy based on the numbers that -- transaction numbers that we have -- I have mentioned earlier. So the wheeling charges is about MYR 11.9 million for the first quarter. And for the LTMS, it's quite small. It is about 13,000. So we are basically upbeat with respect to the green power trading because in today's power market, everybody is looking for green. So the third question is a BESS pilot. What is the commercial term. So the first project that is carried out by Tenaga Nasional, the BESS project is part of the regulated CapEx return under RP4, which will provide us with the 7.3% return. And then if I can share, there's also subsequent bidding processed by EC for another 4x 100 megawatt bidding process. So this is a scheme that we think that will continue in the future. Of course, TNB is also participating in those bidding process.
Unknown Analyst
analystNext I have questions. I think this time you shared during the slides that you have spent about MYR 128 million contingency CapEx in first quarter. Can I understand what this CapEx relates to in terms of like what project it is? And also for the full year, I think you're targeting about MYR 8 billion CapEx, right? I think -- so is it safe to assume that it's about MYR 10 billion for the base CapEx and then the additional MYR 2 billion is for contingency. So that's the first question. Second one, I think over the weekend, given the ASEAN. I mean, I think there's been some talks and expectations of expediting the ASEAN interconnection grid in terms of more imports coming from Laos as well as wind from Vietnam. Can I get a sense like if Tenaga could benefit from this maybe in terms of accelerated CapEx spend for the grid or also maybe you guys can also benefit from wheeling fees.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveOkay. Thank you. CFO want to have a go on the first one.
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveActually, I think we can show back the slide just now for the contingent CapEx in terms of MYR 128 million that we have spent, actually, that is under meeting demand across the 3 areas. So this is what we have committed to at the moment because it's actually when we mentioned earlier, under the contingent CapEx, there are around 90 projects that has been identified clearly that will be inside contingent CapEx. So what we're doing is we are seeing 3 of these items inside the contingent CapEx as far as projects are concerned are being started already. So these are the first one on ECRL, where the connectivity and substation to support the development is already spent together with the other one being data centers, where the specific ESAs are actually identified that when we signed this ESA, it will be part of contingent CapEx. So that is 3 projects across naturally [indiscernible]. And the last one, there are specific projects under the overall development of the country, where these projects are supposed to cater for the schools and all. So these are -- that's why when CEO was saying, we are not waiting for one before we finish -- we don't have to finish the base CapEx before we spend on contingent CapEx. So the projects that are clearly identified are being progressed as we speak. So this is the part where we are seeing as far as contingent CapEx is concerned. That's why we are guiding for 70% projection across the 3 years. And we believe that this year will be between MYR 1 billion to MYR 2 billion. You may say that MYR 1 billion to MYR 2 billion this year is small in comparison to the entire MYR 16 billion contingent CapEx. So this is the part where as far as the overall thinking is concerned, obviously, it's contingent upon something beyond the normal base CapEx only then you're supposed to spend it. But it's not waiting at the end or after you finish base CapEx. So this is the project that we are showing that is actually being triggered and spend as we go along. So that's why the overall indication is 70% over 3 years and MYR 1 billion to MYR 2 billion this year. So as far as the overall CapEx for this year is concerned, yes, you are right in terms of the contingent CapEx, that's guiding MYR 2 billion. So if you look at the overall full year CapEx, that's MYR 20 billion. So out of that MYR 20 billion, MYR 12 billion regulated CapEx. So with MYR 2 billion contingent, you're looking at between MYR 9 billion to MYR 10 billion for regulated -- sorry, for base CapEx for regulated, leaving the balance of MYR 8 billion for the nonregulated CapEx, mostly on the generation side.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSecond on the question with respect to the benefit of ASEAN Power Grid. So the potential for the ASEAN Power Grid, the first element is actually the source. And what the ASEAN Power Grid trying to envisage and get into objective is the sharing of the RE resources among the ASEAN countries on top of sharing of the conventional generation. So for the focus on the so-called sharing of green generation, the key element is actually to have the generation itself, meaning that we have to construct the so-called RE generations. So in the recent collaboration with respect to Vietnam, Malaysia and Singapore, for example. So the collaborations will look into the possibilities of both the generation of the green, which is the possibility of wind energy generation south of Vietnam because this is where the wind speed is very conducive for wind generation. So the second part, once we are anchored on the source is to look at the transmission of the source among the ASEAN countries. So one of the first possible route is Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, the second possible route. The second option is actually -- okay, the first route will involve submarine cable between Vietnam to Malaysia and also the land transmission from Malaysia to Singapore. So the submarine will be around 560 kilometers, whereas the land from Malaysia top Northern state to Singapore is about 1,100 kilometers. So that is the first route. Second route is the land route, meaning that the source will go to Vietnam to the neighboring countries, which are Cambodia and Thailand and coming to Malaysia through Thailand. As you are aware, we are now having an interconnection facility with EGAT Thailand of 300 megawatts. This facility was constructed 20 years ago in the early '90s. 2001, I think we commissioned it somewhere there. So now we are also talking about the upgrading this interconnection into a higher capacity to enable the ASEAN Power Grid. So the benefit of Tenaga, there are potential investment with respect to the generation of RE power itself together with the consortium partners that we have mentioned. Second is to develop the grid, both the submarine grid and also the land grid that is on Malaysia. So we believe this is very, very beneficial for Tenaga, and that's where we are putting in the opportunity for us to be part and parcel of this ASEAN Power Grid expansion. And bearing in mind that the RE generation that coming from Vietnam may also be utilized in Malaysia itself because that's part of the energy mix that is acquired here as well as will be exported to Singapore.
Daniel Wong
analystDaniel from Hong Leong. My first question is to follow up on the regulatory adjustment on the price, the MYR 2 billion. Can you give us a sense of how much of it is due to revenue? How much of it is due to price cap? And then can you revise us again? First quarter, you have a negative 1.2% drop in power demand and you are expecting 3.5% to 4.5% growth. So I think your assumption here is using 3.5% to 4.5% range in order to calculate the difference between the negative 1.2% to 4.5% is it how you calculate for your first quarter difference is ICPT?
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveI think for ICPT calculation for the first quarter, obviously, we must caution you that this has not been audited by the regulators, but this is based on existing mechanism as well as the historical treatment of it. So that's why for the adjustment in terms of the fuel cost, it's very straightforward because it's actually tied to the coal price. And based on the actual unit that was spent, that's why, obviously, we have seen that there is over recovery in terms of the fuel costs. But the most important part of the cost, most of it actually comes from the generation side, which was based -- where the tariff is actually based on certain assumptions of the volume. So because of the a little bit of shortfall in the volume for the first quarter, so that's why based on that tariff, we have not recovered enough. So that's why we actually [Technical Difficulty] for the SB Gen, but it actually mechanized through ICPT for these purposes, which has always been the case. So it's more of recovery of these units not recovered for generation that actually give us that to the revenue. So that's in terms of the overall adjustment for the first year, but the revenue cap and the price cap will only finalize through our annual regulatory adjustment at the end of the year. So the quarterly actually mostly would be a reflection of the ICPT covering fuel as well as the SB Gen generation cost. That will be fluctuating every quarter.
Daniel Wong
analystI thought in your previous slides, you always show that under regulatory adjustment, you have a price cap adjustment and...
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveWe do, we have that calculation, and I think we'll make that available to all of you as well.
Daniel Wong
analystOkay, sure. My follow-up question is on the tax thing. You guided 30% effective tax for this year, that's relatively high. So I just want to check. So all the new projects -- all the new CapEx being spent for this year for the regulated and nonregulated CapEx, all this will not be attracted for tax incentive, is it this year or going forward as well?
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveNot under the specific reinvestment allowance. But obviously, the normal tax benefit we will get under the regulated framework as well, we get compensated for the tax as well inside there. So this is just at the group level with the prices of all other nondeductible items from the tax perspective and all, that's why it's considered relatively higher compared to our previous because of this specific allowance, which is now no longer there.
Unknown Analyst
analyst[ Isac ] here from [indiscernible]. Two questions, please. Number one is that can you share with us some of the color on the EC's RFP for under the category 1 and category 2, how much capacity are we talking about for both category 1 and category 2? And also to follow on that is that which plant have TNB identified to be -- I mean, to submit proposal? And also for the category 2, how would that affect some of your projects on the island you have signed, for example, maybe the Paka Repowerings and Kapar project? Maybe we just stop here.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveOkay. Thank you very much. I think the -- what we can share from the numbers from the RFP in terms of the capacity, the system is looking at up to 8,000 megawatt capacity coming from these 2 so-called category expansion and as well as a new plan. So that is basically the objective of the ROFE as we understand it from the industry player to get the plan up for up to 8,000 megawatts so that the supply and demand can be handled with a good operating result margin for the country. So in terms of the Tenaga play itself, so we understand that Paka Repowering has achieved -- have received an indicative letter of notification known as iLON, so which is actually a conditional letter of offer. So we have started the work for Paka and Paka will not be part of this so-called submission because it is something that not part of the requirement of the 8,000, meaning that the 8,000 is on top of this so-called requirement. So for the rest of it, yes, we have a number of options with respect to our plan that we can offer for extension. So the team is still looking into it. Yes, I can't name the plant because that is visibly and physically available. The plants, for example, [ Galogo ] is one of the plant that can be extended. We have also Putrajaya plant that can be considered. And we have a number of also sites that we can propose with respect to the new plant up. For example, we have additional land besides [indiscernible] that we may consider as part of the category 2. I probably would not want to share more than that because that's part of our strategy moving forward.
Unknown Analyst
analystSecond question. Is that -- I understand that the reinvestment allowance is no longer there, but the 30% is still a lot higher than the 20% of statutory. So is there a time line where we will move closer to the 20% like next 2, 3 years? Will we be like a lot lower than 30% and closer to 24%?
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveIt's not so straightforward like that. As you may know, the statutory tax rate actually where you have to go line by line and look at what's deductible and what is not. So I think we are being conservative here because we don't want you to be too aggressive on that estimate. And at least I think we are quite, I would say, quite sure probably for this year, it's closer to 30%. But I guess we will not be doing our job if we are not trying to finalize and optimize that. So that's something that we're working towards. But I don't think the upside should be from that alone. For us, that's something that we want to optimize. But we know that it's quite difficult at times to get to much lower rate. So that's why we are guiding for us to be conservative. And hopefully, along the way, we'll be able to optimize that better.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveOkay. Yes. I think just to add to that, I think the single biggest change with respect to the tax is actually we can no longer enjoy the reinvestment tax allowance. So that is the part that we, as a company, understand that is the way forward. And we are putting in the effort to ensure that we will get the best performance, including trying to get the best tax rate. So as I mentioned by the CFO, we put the projection of 30%, a conservative figure. And hopefully, we can work our way to get better and better from time to time.
Edwin Ng
executiveOkay. Now we'll give opportunities to those on Webex. So we have a couple of questions coming from Webex. The first question is from [indiscernible] from [indiscernible]. She has one question. The question reads, "with the electricity demand drop in 1Q FY '25 due to higher usage of solar."
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveIn terms of the component of the cost of the reduction, yes. But in terms of the percent from our analysis, it is still quite low. Yes. Green generation contribute to the overall reduction of consumption from the grid, but the numbers is small. So predominantly, the lower consumption is due to the industrial sector, especially iron and steel industry. So that is one of the key subsector that has contributed to the lower comparatively to the first quarter and some of the manufacturing subsector that we have seen. Domestically, if you look, the indirect correlation that we can see is actually on the weather comparatively. So again, there is an effect of weather. There is also an effect of the green generation. The real cost is actually the subsector with respect to industrial. And we can see from the IPI numbers of the country, the industrial production index is very much reflecting that.
Edwin Ng
executiveThe next participant is Edwin Goh from Grandpine Capital. He has two questions. The first question reads, "does the company still see any data center ESA request coming? And what is the target data center capacity for financial year 2025?" The second question is, does the company expect this electricity rate hike to be implemented in July 2025 as planned in RP4?
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSo on the data centers coming to the country, we are still seeing the same positivity and pretty constant discussion with potential developers that who are thinking to set up a data center in the country. And we are not seeing anything that is negative even though we are seeing the market volatility with respect to the tariff announcement from the U.S. So that is a statement of fact that I can share with everyone today. And from the country perspective, okay, that is from the developer perspective. From the country perspective, we are probably in the position to accommodate the data center investment better. Recently, the government introduced a number of elements that will provide Malaysia, not only the hub for data center, but the hub for quality data center with the guidance on the introduction of a number of key metrics with respect to efficiency. First, the power equivalent usage, a guide to data center that we want to set up data center here. There's also WEU water equivalent usage that is also being set by the country. So I think we are moving forward with a good step forward, getting the investment of data center that is coming from quality developers for the data center. So we are working closely with the DC task force that is created by the government to facilitate DC application. So for Tenaga Nasional, the project will only start once the developer has provided the license to actually set up a data center. So with that, we feel that we are in a better position to address the needs and the requirement of data center. And from what we can envisage with respect to the investment, we are thinking -- we think that there are going to be about another 10 [ EAC ] that is -- will be coming on stream this year with an average of 150 to 200 megawatt per data centers. So it is going to be about 1.5 to 2 gig that we see that will be coming. And looking at the overall capacity of Tenaga, the country. I think we can accommodate that. And on top of the RFP that's being issued by the regulator, I think everybody is geared up to accept the increase with respect to the investment, especially from data center and the semiconductors. Does the company expect the rate hike to be better in July 2022 as planned in before? I think this is for the government to make the statement.
Edwin Ng
executiveNow we will move on to the next participant. We have Rahul Bhatia from HSBC. He has 2 questions. The first question is, could you provide more color on domestic generation business profit after tax? A quarterly profit of MYR 25 million is a very low run rate compared to your target of MYR 250 million for 2025. And I recall you mentioned at 2024's result, this as a conservative target. So just trying to understand why relatively a lower number in 1Q '25? And do you expect profit trend to improve significantly in the remaining months? The second question is on DCs. On Q-on-Q basis, March 2025 versus December 2024, the increase of load utilization is much lower compared to trend between previous quarters. Could you share your thoughts on this slowdown? What are the DC operators saying to you considering all the global macro events?
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveThank you very much. CFO want to take the first question?
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveI think we are sticking to our conservative target of MYR 250 million for GenCo business this year. But I think, yes, you are right that the first quarter is relatively slow run up to our overall target. But this is the part where you have to look at from where we were before. This is already a significant improvement from obviously a loss in last year first quarter. So it's improving. And this is on the back of much more stable availability of our plant. Yes, the question is, do we expect better performance coming for the rest of the year for our GenCo business? Yes. That's why we are keeping to the -- our more conservative target for the rest of the year.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSo in the generation performance, I add to the info that shared by CFO. I think we understand 2 to 3 years ago, I think the biggest question with respect to the generation business is on the commercial loss that we experienced. So what we have taken into account is that how can we best derisk this commercial loss by betting -- by using a better so-called blending of coal. So that kind of -- that initiative has started in the last quarter of the year. And we are seeing quite good results with respect to derisking some of the potential commercial loss. So once we have that, we move into looking at the efficiency of the power plant. And again, the efficiency of the power plant is very much related to the quality of coal. So blending provide us 2 avenue. One is to address commercial loss at the same time to gain the efficiency of the operations. So yes, I think we are making progress with respect to those. At the same time, we are seeing quite a good momentum in April, for example, where all of our coal plant achieve full capacity payment. So that is a good sign for us to move forward. And this is related to some of the engineering solution that we have started to introduce late last year. So one of the engineering solutions that we have started to introduce is digitalization of the power plant by introducing digital twin. So this has helped us with respect to the performance. We can predict better the performance of the plant. And again, we are positive in it, but we are conservative at the same time and putting in the numbers forward. We don't want to be -- let us overdeliver rather than we don't want to make overpromise, we want to overdeliver. I think that's the one that we have in respect to our generation portfolio. On this is on quarter-to-quarter basis, March '25, we see the increase of load compared to the previous trend. So what we see is that the so-called variations, that is to us is a short-term analysis with respect to the variation, but we are more towards the long-term consumption of DC. So if you look at the trend moving forward from previous year, it is an upward trend. So we try not to overanalyze the so-called quarter-to-quarter, knowing fully aware the conversation that we have with the data centers that this is going to be positive moving forward. So if the conversation that we have with data center happened almost every month. And at the same time, we are also receiving every 2 months, the invitation for the data center for the commissioning of the power supply. So we are positive on that.
Edwin Ng
executiveOkay. Next, we have a couple more questions from Webex. The next participant will be Rachel Tan from UBS. She would like to ask the question directly. Rachel, we've already unmuted you, you can ask your question now. Okay. I think there might be a technical issue. We'll move on to the next participant first. The next participant is Mayank from Morgan Stanley. He would also like to ask the question directly. You may ask your question now. I guess there is another technical issue. We will now move on to the next participant. So the next participant is Chong Lee from UOB Kay Hian. The question reads, "what is the plan for Kenyir hydro and Cameron plant."
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSo for the Kenyir, PPA is still in place. And this is the hydro plant, it's one of our performing plant from the generation fleet. The consideration of expansion for Kenyir, we are looking at the possibility of whether we can add the technology of farm storage in Kenyir and some of our other hydro plants. So that think, that is the thinking that we can adapt to the current PPA provided the farm hydro storage can be implemented. It is the -- for the Cameron plant, the opportunity for pump storage is not there. Again, the performance of the hydro plant in Cameron is good. It's one of our good plant. So for Cameron, we are looking at the, to make, we are looking at the environment of Cameron plant because the Cameron plant situated very much in the middle of the agriculture plantation in Cameron. So the focus for us is actually to ensure that Cameron LN can operate and the environment would not have an impact on the operations of the Cameron plant.
Edwin Ng
executiveGood news. We managed to get back the 2 participants from Webex. We will now call upon Rachel Tan to ask your question.
Rachel Tan
analystI have 2. So first is what are the expected returns on the domestic GenCo business for the RFP as well as for the Kapar and Paka? And then the second question, I noticed that there has been a scaling back of information provided by the company in the presentation slides. Is this because the parameters for RP4 haven't been finalized yet? Or is this something that the company has decided that they don't want to disclose? And I'm commenting on this because especially with your generation business, it becomes a little bit harder to forecast. And we're just wondering what's the best way to go about it?
Badrulhisyam bin Fauzi
executiveI think if you talk about the return for RP4, I think we are very firm that the return approved by the government is at [indiscernible] as reflected in our quarterly results where we are reflecting that return. But I think as far as the information is concerned, we are actually providing those as necessary to all of you. So I don't think we're scaling back in terms of availability of the information, but we are just doing it in a more targeted approach. So be rest assured that it's information that you want, we will make it available to you to make sure that you are able to get to your conclusion for all the RP4 details.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveI think on the second question, what is expected the domestic generation business, especially coming from the RP4 -- sorry, RFP that recently been published by the regulator. I think as far as Tenaga is concerned, we are guided by our investment hurdle rate with respect to the return. And that hurdle rate is very much [indiscernible] to the market hurdle rate that is, I would say, the developers to come in looking at both the risk and return portfolio. So today, our -- if we are going to submit for the RFP, that will be the basis of our -- which is a market rate base for a power plant. And looking at the so-called return of the conventional power plant, it is a business that the world has been, I would say, around for many, many years. So there is a good range with respect to the expectation. As a company, we will definitely be part of the expected return from this segment of the business.
Edwin Ng
executiveOkay. we managed to get back Mayank from Morgan Stanley.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveMayank, can you hear us because we can't hear you. I think we are not able to establish Mayank, the communication with Mayank. He is in Singapore.
Edwin Ng
executiveOkay, Mayank. We will get back to you on your questions. Due to time constraint, we will now have our last participant to ask his question, which is also from Webex, [ Fong ] from CIMB Securities. He has 2 questions. The first question is, when do you expect the EC to announce the outcome from the RFP? Previously, the guidance was for the net GEW addition by 2030, which is this RFP. Do you see any change to this net addition numbers now, perhaps a range? The second question is 1Q 2025 saw a slight improvement in the EAF to 82%. Given that M4 is already back online, where are we still tracking below the 83.2% target for the year? Just to clarify, the target is the average EAF for the year. If so, where do we see EAF by the end of the year?
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSo on the first question, the expectation to announce the outcome of RFP. So what we understand today, we are to submit the RFP by 31st July. So you can anticipate probably the announcement of the outcomes beyond July 2025. On the guidance of the net addition, earlier, 4 gig by 2030. So what we see from the RFP, there is a figure of up to 8 gigawatt by 2030. So we believe if we are talking about a range, so it could be in between 4 gig to 8 gig as I interpret it from those numbers. Second question, is on the EAF to 82%, yes, there is an improvement for quarter 1. And we are also seeing a good improvement for April and in May. We hope to provide a better figure as we go along and achieve the target by year-end.
Edwin Ng
executiveThat should be all the questions for today. Ladies and gentlemen, I would like to thank you for your questions. Now I'll pass to Dato Ir. Megat, President and CEO of TNB for his closing remarks.
Megat Bin Megat Hassan
executiveSo ladies and gentlemen, thank you for the questions asked and interaction. As always, reach out to our IR team for details and further clarifications on discussions. To summarize today's session, first quarter, we are seeing a performance of stability in our regulated business with a strong contribution from commercial sector. We are positive about the growth opportunity under the [indiscernible], and we stand ready to support the nation ambition of achieving net zero emission by 2050. With the implementation of RP4, we have a clear focus making our strategic investment to ensure the adoptions of into the system to ensure the reliability and availability of supply remain intact and to enhance the national power infrastructure and more importantly, to get the objective of a just energy transition for the country. Sustainability remains a cornerstone of our strategy. We are committed to reducing our carbon footprint by expanding our RE portfolio and driving innovation, especially on the carbon management across our operations, especially in the generation business. As we continue to pursue growth, we remain mindful of the challenges ahead. At the same time, we are confident in our directions and fully dedicated to fulfilling the group long-term aspirations. So in conclusions, we are reiterating our commitment to driving sustainable business growth while contributing meaningful to the country energy transition and to the people of Malaysia. Rewarding our shareholders remain a top priority, and we sincerely appreciate the full support and loyalty given thus far. Thank you very much, ladies and gentlemen, and have a wonderful day ahead.
Edwin Ng
executiveThank you, Dato Megat. Ladies and gentlemen, we have now come to the end of our session. On behalf of the Tenaga Nasional Berhad, we thank you for your participation in today's briefing. For any questions that remain unanswered, rest assured that we will probably address them following this event. If you require further clarifications or inquiries, feel free to contact our Investors Relations officers or e-mail us at [email protected]. To all our attendees whether present physically or virtually, we appreciate your time and engagement. As you leave the hall, we warmly invite all analysts to help themselves to a prepared lunch available in the lounge area. Thank you once again, and we look forward to seeing you in our future sessions. Take care, and have a wonderful day.
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