Terex Corporation (TEX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

December 1, 2022

New York Stock Exchange US Industrials Machinery conference_presentation 35 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Jamie Cook

analyst
#1

All right. So good afternoon, everyone. Today, I'm very pleased to have with us Terex Corporation. With us today, we have Chairman of the Board, President and Chief Executive Officer; John Garrison, as well as Julie Beck, who's the Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Terex Corporation. In terms of the format today, I'm going to hand it over to John because I think he has a few slides or prepared remarks he wants to go over, after which, we will open it up to Q&A. [Operator Instructions] So thank you, John and Julie, for your support, and I'll hand it over to you.

John Garrison

executive
#2

Well, thank you, Jamie, and thank you for your interest in Terex. As Julie and I said, we've got a couple of slides, and then we'll throw it open for questions. My general counsel would not be happy if I didn't say I'd be making forward-looking statements, so please read our forward-looking statements. In terms of we start every type of business review from the Board meetings on down with our overall safety performance. Our zero-harm safety culture, we fundamentally believe that we've got to create an environment where people can come to work every single day and go home safe and sound to their loved ones. And so we show this. We have made -- and I use this for 2 purposes. Now one, we have made dramatic improvement in our overall safety performance. But you'll also see that our performance has flattened out. And part of that, and I'm sure we're going to talk about supply chains and supply chain disruption. Part of that is associated with the supply chain and the number of times we have to touch our equipment in the production process now. And we've seen that flatten out. So the team is working to overcome that as we go forward. But again, from an ESG perspective, we've been doing this for quite some time. It is part of who we are in our Terex way values and our Zero Harm safety culture. So we start every meeting with a review of our safety performance. In terms of -- if we look at Terex, we think we're in attractive end markets, and we know there's, hey, we know there's this rising interest rate environment, and there's a headwind associated with that. But we think we're in an industry with some really favorable trends, and we think Terex, we have an advantage. Now the other thing I'll put out there is we're doing an Investor Day on December 13 in the morning, so please you'll hear more there. But if you take a look at it, we really have transformed our portfolio. Every one of the businesses that we have in this portfolio now is a very strong brand, in many cases, helped to create the industries that we're in. We serve diverse end markets, products and geographies, and we have invested over $600 million over the last 5 or 6 years in capacity and technology to grow the business. If we look at our Materials Processing segment, it's frankly, and it's on us, it's an underappreciated segment for Terex. It represents 60-plus percent of our operating earnings, and it's been an incredibly consistent performer through time. Why is that? It serves multiple industries, aggregates, recycling, industrial and global. And so it's a global business, great brand recognition, great distribution, which we think is a competitive advantage. And that market segment there as we think about tailwinds because of the supply chain constraints that we've had, our dealers' inventory is depleted and the dealers' rental fleets are depleted. So those need to be replenished as we go forward. And then the part of the business that people are much more familiar with, our Aerials business, Genie, which now is AWP, so it's Genie in our Utilities business. Again, we think there's some great tailwinds associated with that, not the least of which is the replacement cycle. We and the industry have not been able to meet the needs of the customer and so their fleets have aged. So we think there's a strong replacement cycle, and there's growth. And last but certainly not least is our Utilities business, the amount of money that needs to be spent on the grid on the utility side. We've made a major investment in Watertown, South Dakota, to have the capacity for that going forward. And again, there tailwind replacement cycle, continued strong growth as we go forward. If we look about Q3, and I know we're well into Q4, but the other message is, like a lot of manufacturers, we have significant backlog. Our backlog is at record levels across the business is up, $3.9 billion, that's almost a year's worth of revenue for us, Jamie. You've been covering us a long time.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#3

Don't age me.

John Garrison

executive
#4

I'm sorry. She started yesterday. But anyway, it's a significant amount of backlog up year-over-year across both businesses. We've been very disciplined and done a lot of work in reducing G&A expenses over the years, driving gross margin as a result. On a year-over-year basis, we had a sizable improvement in our operating profit and almost an 80% year-over-year improvement in our EPS, which enabled us to take our full year guide up at the end of Q3. Again, reflective of the market that we're in. And we'll probably talk about this. The market for us right now is quite strong. The limiting factor has been the supply chain. So as we look forward and as we think about the intermediate to longer term, we like the businesses that we're in, the restructured portfolio that we have. We've been putting in place an operating system, we call it Execute, Innovate and Grow and really driving improvement in execution. I think we've demonstrated through some challenging times an improvement in our level of execution. Obviously, we have a lot more that we can and will do, but we've driven improvement. The other side of it is we've got a very strong balance sheet. At the end of the quarter, our net debt-to-EBITDA was like 1.4x. And we have no current maturities come until 2029. And so we like where we are from a balance sheet standpoint, which we do think gives us the opportunity for some M&A activities. And we started that back up here in the last year, 1.5 years, and we may talk about that. And we talked about the tailwinds. We're obviously not oblivious to the headwind of a rising interest rate environment. But right now, we've got very strong demand, and we think that demand is going to carry us for some time forward. We're driving a lot of innovation. We may want to talk about our electrification or ESG efforts. We're investing in that and it's yielding in terms of market penetration. And over time, that innovation is also going to help us drive gross margin improvement as we go forward. And again, we have invested. We've been -- returned a lot of capital to shareholders over the last several years. But while doing that, we've also invested in the business. And we're looking at north of 20% return on invested capital. So those investments that we're making are yielding a return for our shareholders. So that's just some kind of introductory comments quickly on Terex in terms of where we are and look forward to your questions, Jamie.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#5

So I want to talk about, obviously, your portfolio strategy, electrification. But before we go to Terex specifics, we do have to cover supply chain.

John Garrison

executive
#6

Really?

Jamie Cook

analyst
#7

Yes. So I mean, from a lot of the other industrial companies that have been here this week, it does sound like supply chain on the margin is better versus where we were. So how would you characterize what you're seeing in supply chain? And as you think about 2023 and your approach to guidance, what are assumptions going to be on supply chain?

John Garrison

executive
#8

So maybe I'm not quite as buoyant as -- let me put it this way. We ended Q3. First of all, we're still talking about hospital inventory. It's where units that are partially built waiting on components. As a manufacturer that's absurd, but that's the world that we're in. We ended Q3 at $63 million. We ended Q2 at $63 million. We haven't seen an appreciable improvement in what's a critical measure for us, which is hospital inventory. Now on the positive side, we have seen a modest improvement of supplier on-time delivery but it's not to a level that's consistent that we can get this breakthrough. We have been between $1 billion and $1.1 billion revenue per quarter for well over a year right now. That is not demand driven, that's supply chain driven.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#9

And just because you mentioned the on-time delivery, whatever, can you tell us sort of what's normal like before supply chain and like where are we now versus where were we in the beginning of the year?

John Garrison

executive
#10

50%, 60% on time in some areas. Normally, it's well north of 90%.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#11

50%, 60% now, like was it the same in the beginning of the year or was it worse?

John Garrison

executive
#12

A little bit lower, but in that same ballpark. So modest improvement. We're still well below historical norms.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#13

Okay.

John Garrison

executive
#14

And literally, we're chasing hundreds of parts that aren't at the right place at the right time in our factories around the world. Normally, that's a handful of parts.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#15

And is -- are there any differences geographically, or is it everywhere?

John Garrison

executive
#16

It's pretty much everywhere, especially Europe and North America, a little bit China ebbs and flows based on lockdown. But no, it's pretty consistent globally.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#17

Okay. And then obviously, 2022, besides supply chain, we had to deal with a lot of inflationary pressures. So can you talk to -- on raw materials, we're starting to see some deflation finished. Not, airfreight was a big issue, I think, for everyone in 2022. Where do you think there could be opportunities for improvement in 2023 related to inflationary pressures? And when would you start to see that?

John Garrison

executive
#18

So first of all, it would be great for all of us if we see inflation dramatically reduce and/or eliminate. We're seeing a reduction in the rate of increase, but it's still significantly above historical norms. So that -- I mean, other than HRC steel, which has come down dramatically, plate still remain quite high. As we're in negotiations, ongoing discussions, negotiations with our suppliers, we're still seeing sizable increases requested by suppliers. Obviously, were pushed back. And our approach has been -- we've been very transparent with our customers, and we are trying to pass on the material, freight and in some instances, labor cost increases that we're seeing and explaining why we're doing it.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#19

Okay. And then just shifting over to the macro. My guess is I know what you're going to say, but we're just trying to -- as you're getting closer to 2023 and planning and talking to your customers about 2023, what are you telling -- what are they telling you about -- I know you have great backlog, but like they're -- how they're thinking about their CapEx spend next year? And are you -- have you seen anything since the third quarter to suggest demand is deteriorating?

John Garrison

executive
#20

Well, we don't give in-quarter , but I can tell you no. And I can tell you the conversations we're having with both our dealers and our customers in AWP is we are still allocating. We're trying to keep everybody equally unhappy and customers are asking for more than we're right now willing to commit to be able to deliver for 2023. So although I'm not going to provide a guidance or an outlook for 2023. As we sit here today, 2023 will be governed by supply chain and our ability to produce not based on demand as we sit here today.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#21

Okay. And is there any difference in materials processing versus access? Or it's just about the same?

John Garrison

executive
#22

Yes. We're allocating across the bulk businesses both on the aerial side as well as the MP side.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#23

Okay. And does anyone have any questions in the audience on macro or anything or I can? No, all right. So why don't we switch a little bit from macro right now? And let's talk about the materials processing business because it's obviously a business that's contributed to more earnings resilience relative to history. So as you think about materials processing, what do you think -- why is that business -- why are the margins so much more resilient relative to the Access Equipment business? Is it geographic diversity? Is it product diversity? Just trying to understand why the margin profile has been so resilient and countercyclical?

John Garrison

executive
#24

Yes. In both businesses, we have very strong brands. If you look at our aggregate side in our MP business, Powerscreen and Finlay helped to create in the mobile crushing and screening market. So we've got very powerful brands that have a strong history. We have very strong distribution. It's application-specific distribution, so that gives us an advantage. The other in manage about 75% of that business goes through distribution channels. So the team has been very good and very adroit at pricing dynamically. And so if you look at the MP business just this year, but historically, they've been able to pass on real time the price increases as they occurred to that distribution channel. And so that clearly has helped us. It's a good global business. And as I showed on that first chart, serves multiple different industries, but we have strength in the U.S., strength in Europe, strength in Asia. We got a great plant in India. We've got great plants in Northern Ireland that are very cost competitive as we export around the world in that part of the business. So -- and the other thing, Jamie, it's been in the Terex portfolio, but it was just covered over by some of the other businesses we had. And so one of the things we'll show is kind of the history of the MP business of how they've been able to grow and expand margins. And they're consistent in that 15% range. And we think that's a pretty good place for us to be. Now we're investing in that business. Obviously, we'll always want to do a little bit better. But if we can get 15% and grow that business, that's going to be an investment we think is worth making.

Julie Beck

executive
#25

Their operating system and practices also contribute to their strong margins, so that's an advantage for the business too and [ they do ] great job.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#26

Okay. And just because your point, this business was sort of hitting in other parts of Terex and Terex has done a lot of portfolio changes, movements over time. Can you talk about the sales cyclicality of that business like throughout different economic...

John Garrison

executive
#27

Yes, it's been more resilient, more consistent through time. Now it's an equipment manufacturer. So there's a degree of cyclicality in all these. But relative to some other businesses that we had, it's less cyclical. It's more geographical dispersed and it serves different end markets. It just doesn't serve construction. There's aggregates, there's lifting, there's handling. So it serves multiple different end markets, and that helps to ameliorate some of the cycles that we've seen. So it has been more consistent, both from a revenue standpoint and an operating margin standpoint. For example, in the midst of the pandemic when let's just say the world came to an end, their operating margins bottomed out at 11%.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#28

Okay.

John Garrison

executive
#29

Pretty resilient and I don't think we're thinking that we're going to go back to the bottom of the pandemic anytime soon, but I think that demonstrates some of the resiliency of the operating margins in that business -- or segments.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#30

And then just because -- and I know you have a strong balance sheet, and we'll talk about M&A. But can you help us understand, obviously, you have the different product lines within materials processing. I'm just trying to understand the -- better understand the competitive landscape, like within each of those product lines, I know you're a top-tier player. But after that, how fragmented are the markets because that's going to be important as we think about M&A for Terex going forward?

John Garrison

executive
#31

Right. And so within the verticals that we compete, aggregates, lifting, material handling, environmental, we're a major player, but there is fragmentation. So as we look at potential M&A activity, we do believe that there's going to be opportunity, and that's our priority right now. As we look at M&A in the different verticals within the MP space. Some of the acquisitions that we've done here recently are examples of that. We acquired ProAll, which gave us a leading position in North America and volumetric mixtures, again, especially channel. We acquired a company called MDS, which was in the Republic of Ireland. It gave us heavy-duty trommels, a market space that we weren't in, and it enabled us to have a product that we didn't have and use that existing distribution channel with our existing distribution channel to drive growth. And so those are the types of things as we're looking to build out our pipeline of M&A that we're looking to do. And frankly, I'd like to do something larger, but...

Jamie Cook

analyst
#32

Okay, so larger, so let's go there. So because -- frame, I guess, the M&A pipeline out there? How high would you be willing to lever up? And...

Julie Beck

executive
#33

We're going to be disciplined. We...

Jamie Cook

analyst
#34

I know you want to save some of this for December 13.

John Garrison

executive
#35

Yes. That was like turn my [ sail boat ] .

Julie Beck

executive
#36

No, we'll remain disciplined. We want -- we'd be interested in, as John said, in things that build out the products, the geographic diversification, perhaps technologies, service. All of those things would be opportunities, but we want to make sure that we're being disciplined. So we want to make sure that any acquisition is accretive after the first year of ownership, and we get through purchase accounting. I want to make sure that any acquisition earns its cost of capital within the first 3 years. And our target is 2.5x leverage through the cycle, and we maintain that as well.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#37

Okay. And when we're looking to the type of businesses we want to acquire, are we well run businesses or are we going to do a fixer upper?

John Garrison

executive
#38

We want to acquire good businesses and make them better. We don't want to acquire turnarounds.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#39

Okay. And let me pause for a second. I didn't realize we only have like 16 minutes left. [Operator Instructions]. Okay. So why don't we shift to the other area. I think, that probably offers better secular growth opportunities relative to cyclical would be the utilities business. So can you talk about the utilities portfolio as it sits today, opportunities around M&A within utility and then I have another question after that.

John Garrison

executive
#40

Yes. So utilities, we're excited about that space. If you just kind of look at the infrastructure bill somewhere around $65 billion just in the U.S. is going to be allocated towards transmission and distribution grid expansion. And for us to get anywhere close to the Net Zero objectives that we're setting out there around electrification, that investment needs to be made. We produce insulated equipment. We're a pioneer in the industry. And so we offer a complete line of insulated equipment that works from the big transmission lines all the way down to the distribution lines. We made a sizable investment at the time prior to our Mexico investment was the largest single investment that Terex had ever made in the plant, we built a brand-new world-class state-of-the-art facility in Watertown, South Dakota to give us the capacity that we believe we need for the growth of that business going forward. So that capacity is in place. And now it's really working through the supply chain. I will say of all of our businesses, that one has been most adversely impacted by the supply chain because we had everything electronic components, hydraulics and so on and so forth, but we were also impacted by chassis on that part of the business. So on the good news, the chassis side is starting to work its well out. So we need to see the supply chain improve for that part of the business. It is principally today a U.S.-based business, a little bit of Mexico, a little bit of Canada. And we actually do -- we had a decent business in China, where we actually assembled booms in China in our Changzhou facility. That's slowed down a little bit with everything else in China. So as we look at M&A, we think there are other product line extensions potentially within the utility space of specialized equipment that services the utilities-related industry. And then also looking beyond North America because we don't have a presence really anywhere in Europe. And so there may be some opportunities in that area as well as we look forward.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#41

And just because you touched on it, you said utilities business had some supply chain issues in chassis, so it makes it more challenging. Can you help us size the utilities business today on a revenue perspective, but then also where are the margins today because of these supply chain issues relative to what a normalized margin is? And is that a potential margin improvement opportunity in 2023 or 2024.

John Garrison

executive
#42

The business is about $450 million. And also, let me also say that it has a very nice parts and service business. We have 21 service centers in the U.S. that support. To win competitive bids, you have to have physical infrastructure for service. So it's about $450 million this year. It's historically in that 9% to 10% operating margin business range. This year, it's less than that because of the disruption that we've been seeing. So it's been pulling down the overall AWP margin. We think as we go forward. Historically, it definitely, especially in the new facility can be a consistent double-digit margin. Now I will say one segment of that business, we do highly customized trucks. And when you bring in a chassis of $0.25 million or something, it is dilutive to the margin percentage but still overall good margins. So there is a bit of a limit depending on our mix in that business, but should be and will be a consistent double-digit margin business.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#43

Okay. And then shifting a little, let's talk about some of the ESG efforts in Terex. And can you talk about how your customers' priorities are changing in terms of greener products as we're trying to -- your customers are trying to achieve their energy transition goals and like what investment is required from your part to help your customers get to where they need to be?

John Garrison

executive
#44

Right. And I think that's spot on Jamie because the biggest thing we can do from an ESG standpoint is help our customers achieve their ESG goals with the electrification products that we bring. About 70% of our Genie product line today is offered in electric or hybrid, about 60% of our MP business. A part of our innovation, Execute, Innovate and Grow. But a part of that innovation piece is around electrification. We're investing in our product offering for electrification. The initial drive for electrification really was in Europe and regulatory and regulatory change, that's changing. It's coming to North America and to other markets, but really, Europe was the pioneer in driving electrification. It's spreading to other markets. I think the uptake in more electrical products is -- we're getting to the point now where the cost because up until this point, the cost of an electric machine was significantly greater than the cost of an ICE or internal. And so as electric is growing in other segments that cost is coming down that cost curve, and now we're getting to a point where cost-wise, it's competitive with traditional ICE equipment and then the life cycle cost should be lower. So I think it's a combination of regulatory change. I think it's a combination of large customers, especially publicly traded customers achieving their ESG goals. And then I think it's the technologies coming to a point where the cost differential is narrowing up or starting to make sense. And when that happens, then I think it really begins to accelerate. In terms of an investment standpoint, not a sizable change for us from an investment because we've been investing in our product development and a large part of that has been going towards the electrification. Now, we did make 2 acquisitions or investments, I should say, and both of them were electrical-related. We invested in a company called Viatec that gave us an electronic PTO, why is that important? We were able to take that technology, working with international and put out the world's first all-electric bucket truck. And so it gave us a leg up. And then we made an investment in a company called Aculon, and their electrification specialists. But what they're really good at is getting things certified. And you can have this wonderful technology, but if you can't get it to market quickly and at a reasonable cost, it struggles. So we think they're going to help us with some of our innovation, getting it to the market quicker and cost effectively.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#45

Okay. So look, we're under 10 minutes, and I haven't even asked about Access yet or Aerial Work Platform. So we're evolving, right, we're getting better, we are. But anyway, so -- but outside of the cycle, just the Access equipment or Aerial Work Platform margins. Can you talk about some of the investments that you've made in terms of adding capacity in Mexico and what that does for Terex in terms of incremental revenue opportunity or margin opportunity. And then over time, do you see a path to reduce the cyclicality of the Aerial Work Platform margins?

John Garrison

executive
#46

Okay. I'll jump in.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#47

Mexico first, revenue and margins then.

John Garrison

executive
#48

Julie, don't hesitate to jump in. So we talked Mexico. So we are making a sizable investment in Mexico. It's not just a capacity play though. It's a global cost competitive play. Mexico is a great place for manufacturing. We did not have a presence there. In my past life, I've had numerous manufacturing facilities in Mexico, and it really is a great place to manufacture. So what we've said is that we think we're going to add 200 basis points of margin improvement as we get to '24 and '25 with moving product lines into Mexico. 2023 is going to be a transition year. We moved some of our telehandler products and a small mini product into a temporary facility in Mexico. We're going to move that from the temporary facility into the permanent facility as we complete the construction of that in the upcoming year. And then we'll be moving several more product lines out of the Pacific Northwest and one product line from China into Mexico as well. So '23 is going to be a bit of a transition year, but we we'll expect to see the margin improvement in '24 and '25 as we go forward as we move more product lines into that facility and utilize the capacity that we will have in Mexico. It's also important to note that it's not just our production capacity, we're looking to do. It's also to establish a Mexico-based supply chain. Because that also is going to help from a cost competitiveness, global cost competitiveness standpoint, and that's taken a little bit of time. It is a bit of a challenge as we're moving things given the supply chain constraints. Normally, you build up enough inventory and then shift, we can't build up inventory given the supply chain constraints. So it's going to be a bit of a challenge as we move forward in 2023. But we're confident that it's going to drive some improvement in margins. Now in terms of resiliency of margins, and that's what the team is focused on is really driving improvement and resiliency kind of through margins. The team after we came through the pandemic, they used that crisis to really take a hard look at everything. And that's taken about $90 million of cost out of that business. We were at breakeven in the midst of the pandemic, and that frankly wasn't good enough for a business like that. So the team was very aggressive of taking about $90 million of cost out. I can assure you they're not in any hurry to add any of that back as we go forward. So as we get the volumes, we get the supply chain to steady out, we fundamentally believe that can be a consistent double-digit margin business as we go forward. and get to the mid-teens, low mid-teens margin as we get to '24 and '25 and take full utilization of our Mexico facility.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#49

Okay. Julie, you want to add anything or are you good?

Julie Beck

executive
#50

No, he did a great job.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#51

And so I don't want to front run your Analyst Day on December 13, but...

John Garrison

executive
#52

You're doing a hell of a job...

Jamie Cook

analyst
#53

I'm going to try. So like what can we expect from the Analyst Day in terms of were you going to give financial target updates relative to what you said in 2016? And I think the thing that would be what investors want to hear about sort of is what does Terex want to be when they grow up and then for you to get the multiple they sort of want to hear your earnings just aren't relying on Aerial Work Platforms. So there's a lot of things in there, but are we going to get answers to that, or what can you tell us the ahead of...

Julie Beck

executive
#54

No, we're really excited to tell everybody about the future of Terex. And so we will be talking about featuring the MP business and describing that in more detail. We'll also be talking about the transformation that the company went through over the last 5 or 6 years, where we've been able to triple our return on invested capital and triple our earnings per share. We have the balance sheet, as we talked about earlier today, Jamie, that we have the balance sheet to grow, and so we're excited about that growth. So we'll talk about each of our businesses. And yes, we will talk about the financials going forward.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#55

Okay. And then Julie, free cash flow conversion for everyone in 2022 has been lighter than you would have expected because of hospital or whatever we're calling it. But can you talk about like do you see this as a short-term trend? Or is free cash flow going to be way down again next year just because of some of the supply chain and inventory that we have to keep. And then do you see any -- your balance sheet is strong and the cash flow has been generally good. Like do you see any other opportunities to structurally improve free cash flow conversion?

Julie Beck

executive
#56

So I would say that from an inventory perspective, we have to not be talking about hospital inventory in order for the -- and our inventory levels are too high. So we certainly are going to have to eliminate the hospital inventory, which will generate positive free cash flow. We probably will always carry a bit more inventory now. We're going to have to carry more safety stock and buffer because of all the supply chain disruption we've had.

John Garrison

executive
#57

Yes, just in time turned out be just late.

Julie Beck

executive
#58

Yes. So we will be having a higher level of inventory, but not near as high as it is right now. And so as soon as the supply chain changes, we'll continue to -- we'll generate more positive free cash flow.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#59

Okay. Anyone in the audience have a question? All right...

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#60

I have one, Jamie.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#61

Oh, sure. Go ahead.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#62

[indiscernible] capacity once Mexico gets fully utilized?

John Garrison

executive
#63

So we have one plant in Oklahoma City, and that plant is on the market for sale. It's a shared facility between our AWP and our MP facility, and then some potential consolidation in Washington state over time, but not immediate in the near term.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#64

Okay. And then just on -- we talked about materials processing before and their ability to price pretty proactively and more often than probably on the Aerial Work Platform or rental side. So what are your conversations like with your customers in terms of pricing in 2023 for the Aerial Work Platform business, in particular, if some material costs are coming down? And assuming deflation does happen, do you expect your customers to ask for pricing back, or do you expect that you'll be able to hold it?

John Garrison

executive
#65

Well, I expect they will ask. But I do expect -- and the reason I say that, I don't mean to be flippant is that we're a long way from deflation. We've got one commodity, HRC that's down and everything else is still high. Our suppliers are seeking -- we've had some challenging conversations here recently with our suppliers are seeking price increases. So what we need to see, which will be beneficial for all of us is the rate of inflation to decline, therefore, the rate of price increases to slow. I do not envision in 2023, given what we're seeing right now, price givebacks. And I think the other thing, Jamie, is that it takes time for this to move through everybody, it's a change here, it takes 6 to 9 months for it to work through the income statement and the balance sheet. So...

Julie Beck

executive
#66

And through the various tiers of suppliers.

John Garrison

executive
#67

Suppliers, right. So -- no, I'm sure -- I mean, every negotiation is a difficult negotiation, but we're not envisioning price reductions in 2023.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#68

Okay. And then -- we have 1 minute and 48 seconds left. Okay. So I guess your multiple -- Terex's multiple is coming in. I think part of the concern is macro and aerial or earnings like any downturn, but as you look at what you've accomplished with some of the restructuring that you've done, the capacity that you're adding investments in the business, balance sheet, like what do you -- I guess, what do you think investors are missing about your stock?

John Garrison

executive
#69

Well, first of all, at the end of the day, I think Warren Buffett kind of said it. "In the short run, it's a voting machine, in the long run, it's a weighing machine." So management's going to keep doing the things on the weighing side and keep driving execution. As Julie said, we've tripled EPS, we've tripled return on invested capital. Our MP business is 60% of our operating earnings. But yet, it's not understood, and that's on us that -- we own that. And so we're going to continue to explain the portfolio and the benefit of the MP and recognize that the aerial business is a good business. They went through some tough times, some of it self-inflicted, that we're correcting some of it market driven. We think we can drive consistent margins in that business going forward. And when you add all those things together and compare it to other companies, you'll see that we're currently trading at a relatively significant discount. So over time, our job is to drive the things that we can control and the market will ultimately take care of the things that it controls.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#70

Okay. All right. Well, with that, does any -- we have 15 seconds left. Does anyone have a question or no? All right. Well, is there anything we didn't cover that you wanted to cover today?

John Garrison

executive
#71

Not. Like normal Jamie, you cover in a rapid fire.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#72

All right. Well, with that, thank you, John. Thank you, Julie. I appreciate your support of the Credit Suisse Special Conference.

John Garrison

executive
#73

Thank you Jamie.

Jamie Cook

analyst
#74

Thank you for your support.

John Garrison

executive
#75

Likewise.

Julie Beck

executive
#76

Thank you.

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