Terna S.p.A. (TRN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to the Full Year 2021 Consolidated Results. My name is Josh, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand you over to your host, Omar Al Bayaty, to begin today's conference. Thank you.

Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to Terna full year '21 results presentation. That's Omar Al Bayaty, Head of Investor Relations and ESG; together with Stefano Donnarumma, Terna CEO; and Agostino Scornajenchi, CFO. Let's start the presentation. Stefano, the floor is yours.

Good afternoon, everybody, and welcome to Terna's full year 2021 results presentation. Before starting to analyze the figures, I would like to share some important highlights of the year. Firstly, regarding the [indiscernible] activities, it's important to highlight that during 2021, 57 new projects for the development of Italian grid were authorized. For a total value of over EUR 1 billion investment in line with the 2021 National Development Plan. Concerning the international activities, Terna started the valorization of South America assets for the disposal of its portfolio, lowering even more the risk profile of the group. The due diligence process is ongoing, closing is expected by year-end. Regarding sustainability achievements, let me say that Terna has a strong commitment in measuring and improving its sustainability performance is positively reflected in its ESG ratings. And consequently, its inclusion in the most relevant international sustainability index. For instance, I can mention the Dow Jones Sustainability Index, stocks globally ESG leaders, the mid-40 is achieved fits for growth index. Finally, regarding our shareholders remuneration, today's Board of Directors approved the 2021 final dividend of EUR 0.1929 per share to be paid in June and to be proposed to the next AGM. The 2021 interim dividend of EUR 0.0982 per share was already paid last November. In line with our dividend policy, total dividend for 2021 is EUR 0.2911 per share. After this brief introduction, let me give you the usual overview of the Italian electricity market. Moving to the next slide. As you can see in this chart, in 2021, national demand was about 318 terawatt hours, an increase of 5.6% compared with the same period of 2020 when national demand was about 301 terawatt hours. I would like to underline that in 2021, electricity consumption in Italy substantially returned close to 2019 values. Recover in the sharp decline, recorded in 2020 caused by COVID pandemic. In 2021, renewable services covered about 36% of national demand. Regarding national net total production, this stood at 278 terawatt hours, 2.4% higher than 2020. That's covered about 41% of national net total production, mainly thanks to the contribution of hydro and solar generation. Finally, let me highlight that in line with our institutional rule of ensuring the security of supply and quality of services at the lowest possible cost of final users, Terna held in February a capacity market auction for 2024 delivery. With this auction, we awarded all the capacity that tended to be allocated, that's covering the system needs. In addition, coverage took place with a good mix of technologies, including the storage system with about 1.1 gigawatt allocated. Now let's move to the main figure of 2021. Regards to 2021 numbers, it's firstly important to clarify that given the ongoing LatAm revitalization process, according to accounting principles, 2021 and 2020 results are to be payable to LatAm subsidiaries having been classified as activities held for sale, with the impact on revenues and EBITDA and no impact on CapEx, net income and net debt. Considering this change, group revenues and EBITDA were up by 5% and 2%, respectively versus last year, which means EUR 114 million and EUR 44 million higher than last year. Moreover, we reported a group net income of EUR 789 million, almost EUR 4 million higher versus the same period of 2020. Group CapEx stood at EUR 1,521 million, 13% more versus 2020, confirming our strong CapEx acceleration. To support this huge CapEx acceleration, our net debt stood at about EUR 10 million -- EUR 10 billion, sorry, but about EUR 9.2 billion at 2020 year-end. Regarding 2021 guidance. Considering the statement of international activities held for sale as you can appreciate from the chart, all these main features met and exceeded the provided guidance for the year, showing Terna's commitment on the execution of the plan. Plan update, which is about to be presented on the 24th of March. Now let's make a deeper analysis of the 2021 key features, leaving the floor to the CFO, Agostino Scornajenchi. Please, Agostino?

Thank you, Stefano, and good afternoon, everybody. Let's start with revenues analysis. Total revenues in 2021 increased by 4.6%, reaching EUR 2,605 million, up by EUR 114 million versus last year. So as you can see in this chart, we registered positive contribution both from regulated and nonregulated activities for EUR 105 million and EUR 10 million, respectively. Then as already mentioned by Stefano, international activities now includes mainly the structured costs related to those activities. For all the details, let's move to the next slide. Regulated revenues reached EUR 2,254 million, EUR 105 million better than last year, about 5% more than 2020. The increase was mainly driven by the investment acceleration made on the national grid and output-based incentives effects, partially offset by lower revenues coming from quality of service. Nonregulated and international revenues reached EUR 351 million, 2.9% higher than last year. This growth mainly reflected the higher contribution coming from Tamini and Brugg. Indeed, transformers orders intake was up by 69% versus 2020, while high-voltage cable production coming from Brugg increased by 26%. Regarding Energy Solutions, we registered higher revenues from the LT Group acquired in October '21 and higher revenues from connectivity services. Now let's go through operating cost analysis on Page 11. As shown in the chart, total operating costs stood at EUR 750 million, 10.4% higher than last year. The increase was mainly attributable to raw material purchases from Brugg and Tamini due to higher manufacturing volumes and to higher contribution of the LT Group. Let me now analyze EBITDA. Moving to the next slide. Considering all the previously mentioned effects, 2021 group EBITDA reached EUR 1,855 million, 2.4% higher versus 2020. Despite the one-off component related to Brugg acquisition that positively impacted full year 2020 nonregulated activities. The increase was therefore mainly attributable to higher regulated contribution of about EUR 80 million versus last year, showing an EBITDA of EUR 1,801 million in 2021. Let's now have a look to the lower part of the profit and losses. Turning to the next slide. Depreciation and amortization amounted to EUR 654 million. The increase versus last year was mainly due to the impact of new assets becoming operational in the period. As a consequence, EBIT reached EUR 1,200 million, 2% higher versus 2020. We reported net financial expenses at $79 million, 8.3% lower versus the same period of last year. This extremely lower level was mainly due to ForEx effect. Taxes stood at EUR 318 million, EUR 21 million higher versus last year due to the higher pretax result and higher income not relevant for tax purposes registered in 2020. Consequently, tax rate stood at 28.3%. As a result, group net income reached EUR 789.4 million, about EUR 4 million higher versus the same period of last year. Moving to CapEx analysis at following Page 14. In 2021, total CapEx amounted to EUR 1,521 million, an increase of around 13% compared to last year, confirming Terna's great ability to pursue its mission. Indeed, we invested about EUR 1,461 million in regulated activities. Among the main projects of the period, it is worth mentioning the Tyrrhenian Link project, the Paternò-Pantano-Priolo installed Sicily, the rationalization of the Upper Bellunese area and the Italy-France interconnection. Moreover, let me underline the investment in stabilization devices, such as synchronous compensators, mainly located in Southern Italy, that will enhance the national grid stability. The non-CapEx categories, development CapEx represented 39% of total regulated CapEx. Defense CapEx stood at 19%, while asset renewal and efficiency was the remaining 42%. Nonregulated and other CapEx stood at about EUR 60 million. This includes capitalized financial charges and other investments. Now regarding net debt and cash flow analysis, let's move to the next slide. Net debt at the end of '21 was around EUR 10 billion, EUR 830 million higher than 2020-year end level, mainly as a consequence of the CapEx acceleration made on the national grid. Let me highlight that we generated an operating cash flow of EUR 1,359 million, thanks to which we were able to cover almost all the CapEx spending of the period. Let's now make a deeper analysis of our debt profile. Moving to Page 16. At the end of 2021, we registered a fixed over floating ratio on gross debt of about 91% and an average duration of about 5 years. In line with our strategy of combining sustainability and growth to promote the energy transition, last July, Terna signed an agreement for a EUR 300 million loan with the European Investment Bank at very competitive conditions, represented by a 22-year loan to strengthen and develop the national transmission grid and supporting the '21, '25 industrial plan. This agreement followed the new Green Bond launched in June for a nominal amount of EUR 600 million and an effective cost equal to 0.398%. Moreover, let me remind you that at the end of October, Standard & Poor's rating agency improved Terna's outlook from stable to positive, as a consequence of the same action taken for the Republic of Italy. In December, Terna signed an amending agreement to the 2018 the cap ESG-linked revolving credit facility, with spreads and fees linked to company's performance on specific ESG indicators. The agreement extended its duration to '26 and increased the amount of credit up to a total of EUR 1.65 billion. Then I would underline that last February, Terna successfully launched the first green nonconvertible perpetual subordinated, hybrid bond even for an Italian cooperation for a nominal amount of EUR 1 billion. The issuance has been very successful in the market with an order book at peak over EUR 4 billion. Lastly, in February, Terna also signed a bilateral ESG-linked term loan for a total amount of EUR 300 million at very competitive conditions. This line of credit will have a term of 2 years and an interest rate linked to Terna's performance in specific ESG indicators. Thank you very much for your attention. Now before starting the Q&A session, I would like to leave the floor to the CEO, Stefano, for his closing remarks.

Thank you, Agostino. Let me conclude this presentation with some closing remarks. As illustrated at the beginning of this presentation, excluding the first 2 months of the year, the Italian electricity demand [indiscernible] returned to pre-COVID levels, with a 5.6% increase compared with 2020. Then we also launched the process of additional of South America activities, those lowering the risk profile of the company. Moreover, as mentioned by Agostino, the launch of the new hybrid green bond of EUR 1 billion added even more flexibility to Terna's financial profile. As you appreciated that we were able to present a solid set of results for 2021, meeting and even exceeding the guidance provided for the year, demonstrating once again Terna's strong commitment to execution of its plan. From this positive starting point, let me remind you that on the 24th of March, we will present the 2021-2025 industrial plan update. Thank you for your attention. We are now ready for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of Harry Wyburd from Bank of America.

Glad it wasn't just my lights; it went a bit quiet. And -- okay. So I'll just keep it to 2 questions, please. And -- firstly, I guess, it's a fairly obvious one that we just get your views on the immediate impact from Ukraine. So I guess what we've seen so far, I believe [indiscernible] mentioned that it was no longer going to go ahead with some gas plant conversions. Presumably, we're going to see an acceleration in renewables and a big impetus to add new capacity in the next couple of years and also perhaps a push on interconnection. So just interested in your thoughts on the immediate impacts of the Ukraine crisis on Terna in the next sort of 2 years? So what could the impact on your CapEx? And then second one, you may want to wait until next week, but I thought I'd try my luck anyway. I guess, you issued the hybrids, and I guess you got a policy of 8% dividend growth and you're going into a period of a very, very, very big increase in your annual CapEx. I think it's probably sensible to assume that for a company that's now going to grow quite significantly, perhaps having an 8% dividend, I think that might not be perhaps sort of financially sort of suitable nowadays. So I just wonder whether you could give us any kind of flavor or sense ahead of next week as to whether you think that 8% dividend growth target is going to remain or perhaps whether you'd -- perhaps like to do something a little bit less growth-wise, but maybe perhaps inflation or something like that? But just any color you could give us on the dividend would be very helpful.

Okay. Thank you for your question, starting from the first one that is regarding the Ukraine and Russian war. At the moment, in Italy, there are no impact in terms of gas flow. The flow is regular, and the quantity are exactly the same, sometimes also more of the previous period. And so, I am not able to say if something will happen or not in this -- on this topic. But -- you asked also on a long period impact. And let me just explain which is the role of Terna in this -- on this table. Terna is the operator, the infrastructure operator for electricity in Italy. We cannot produce energy, we cannot buy, we cannot sell energy. We have to manage the energy, the electrical energy flow to our country and in the interconnection with the other countries. Starting by the fact that Italy produce energy at 35% -- between 35% and 40% with the renewable plants. Then we produce also with the carbon and oil. And then we buy energy specifically from French, the nuclear producer energy. And all these quantities are more than the 50% of the total amount. The other part is produced by gas. And the acquisition of gas in Italy is about the 60% coming from Russia. And so if we -- we can advertise the stop of this feeling, but it's really difficult to imagine in this moment. And this is not happening at the moment. But in any case, if it will happen, we may lose the 30% of the total amount of energy. And we can produce more energy with carbon, we are starting how to do in Italy. We can produce more energy also with other gas coming from other countries and our government is working on this agreement. And we can also ask for the other import of energy coming from other countries. So that may be possible that -- the worst case is at least a certain difficulty. But speaking about our role, our role is to manage this practical, let me say, of energy on our network; and to allow the increase of renewable installations, to allow the increase of interconnection. Everything is inside our plan. So that if we continue to implement our plan, and if we continue to manage with the right methods, and we have methodology, we have systems, we have technology, we have knowhow to do this, I think no impact direct on our company may arrive from this situation. So speaking about the hybrid, I can give the floor to Agostino.

Thank you very much, Stefano. Well, regarding the significant CapEx increase that is needed to fulfill the needs of the system and to enable the energy transition, this will, of course, drive an increase of the financial leverage, and this is something that is already visible at year end '21. However, as you probably remember, we communicated on this during the market presentation in November '20. And we confirmed that the company is fully committed to maintain a strong financial structure during the plan and beyond, also to action on the debt side. This is not only a declaration. This is a matter of fact, given, as communicated to the market and also as stated in this presentation, we have just recently issued our first Hybrid Green Bond, aimed precisely in strengthening our balance sheet. Let me remind you that the market [ warmly ] welcomed this instrument. So we are fully in line with the communicated strategy about the managing of our long-term debt. And again, I confirm that we do consider the level of our rating an important element to demonstrate to the market the solidity of our business case and also the credibility of our managerial actions. So we are here to confirm that in order to continue to do whatever it will be necessary to defend such a credit level -- credit scoring level even for the future. And at the end, you already said, so it will not be a surprise regarding dividend, what can I say today is that the dividend policy for '21 has been fully confirmed regarding the update. Let's talk about it next week.

Our next question comes from the line of Javier Suarez from Mediobanca.

Two or three questions on my side as well. The first one, maybe a follow-up on the lessons to be learned for the -- what to do next. I think that the crisis is so deep and probably so unthinkable that may require a complete rethought on our energy supply strategy. So what that may imply in terms of design for the Italian electricity transmission grid, if that has any implication? And what new concept that may bring into the table? I'm thinking about maybe new technologies or more impact on technology such as offshore, et cetera, et cetera. So -- any like in terms of your high-profile view on what needs to happen to create out of a risk and an opportunity to have a more secure energy supply, that will be very helpful. Then the second question is on the recovery fund. I think that with the crisis, the political crisis, we have forgotten about the recovery plan implementation. So I was wondering you can share with us if you have any -- do you see any opportunity for a company like Terna [ estimate ] from that financial -- European financial push to help the economical recovery? And the third question is on the disruption in the value chain that we see globally. It is -- has -- do you see that having any impact on Terna and the deployment of its CapEx plan?

Okay. Javier, if I understood, you want to come back to the Ukraine crisis and to better analyze or understand which is the possible impact of that. And those which are the future perspective to solve this situation also in the future. So maybe after this war and -- which will be the consequences of this. If I understood -- so that what I can say, first of all, like I said before, for Terna what is really important is to manage in a better way possible energy flow. We are going in front of the good period for weather. And so the winter is finishing. So in Italy, just now temperature are increasing. And I think like I hear during these hours, also some announced that the quantity of gas in Italy are absolutely useful and sufficient to close the winter to come to the -- to arrive to the summer. So that -- I think that the next critical period may be the next winter. But it's also true that during this period, now we started to accumulate gas because we consume -- we will consume less, and we will accumulate if the situation will continue in this way. In the meantime, we have to follow the indications of the national authority and national institution, our ministry that ask us to turn to analyze the situation of different operators, production operator and if it's possible to ask for an increase of production or the different sources. In the meantime, we are helping also authorities and institutions to define the new rules to authorize with a faster methodology and approach all the installation of new renewable sources. We are ready to catch these sources. So we are going on with our investments planned. It is absolutely in line with the solution to fill the gap of more than 40, 50 gigawatts in Italy. So that we can accelerate, and we are accelerating, as you can see in our results and we will speak about this also in the next week. But we are accelerating our process and our investment to allow these conditions. So the most important solutions for me in the next period for Italy will be to allow more installation of renewable sources and to arrive in a few years to the 50, 60 and more percent for this kind of production. And in the meantime, also to provide the installation of storage, electrical storage, energy storage in the different technologies for this may be useful to the battery technology, but also the hydro pumping storage, but also maybe the hydrogen and other solutions. So that it's important to go in deep to this and to push to -- for the installation of storage because it's absolute. And in a sense, to guarantee the real function and the current function of the network and to allow more and more renewable energies. In the meantime, we are also going on with some important interconnections. We want to interconnect not only French, they -- it would -- it will happen during the next months with this important connection, but also to increase interconnection with Austria, with Switzerland, but also to provide the new interconnection with Montenegro, Greece and also the North Africa. These are all provided in next year. And so I think that until the -- this plan -- this investor plan and some years more, it will be possible really to have a good conditions in Italy on this side. For the recovery plan, we are really not directly involved in this, as I said also in the past, we are more an [ abilitator ] of the system in this. Thank you.

Our next question comes from Enrico Bartoli with Stifel.

Two quick questions on my side. First of all, sorry to be back on the new outlook due to the Ukraine crisis. Regarding the possibility of speeding up the installation of renewables, there are a lot of discussions at European level, at Italian level. What is your feeling on the possibility and, let's say, the actual implementation of simplification of the authorization processes because it seems that this is really the bottleneck for this development? The association of renewable companies in Italy said that they would be ready to install 60 gigawatt in the short term, but actually, the authorization processes remain a problem? Just a feeling and if you have some discussions on this side with the government. And the second one is related to the announcement that you made about valorizing the assets in LatAm, if you can give us a flavor on, let's say, the possible timing that you expect for this transaction to happen? And if you have any actual discussion with possible buyers for those assets?

Thank you for this question because for the first one, it's interesting to understand what is moving now in our country because you are right, there is a strong and a big discussion on this. But in the meantime, I see that a few days ago were approved some wind plants, wind installation that were stopped from a lot of years. And so it means that something is really happening. As somebody said, yes, a few days ago that all the operators in Italy are able to start with this additional 40, 50, 70 gigawatts of new renewable plants. It's -- I think that it's true because -- it's true because on our table at the moment there are the requests for connections that are between 150 to 200 gigawatts in all our territory. It doesn't mean that they are ready to be installed. It means that are ready to be authorized and to be planned then they have to be realized and then connected. But it means that a first step of the process is really ready to start. So if we consider that in this kind of projects, the main time is not the construction. The main time is always the authorization. So if our government is -- that is working really a lot on this, may found some solutions to accelerate this authorization, I am positive in this direction. I think positive in this direction that I think that it's really possible to accelerate. What it means to accelerate mainly that -- to fill the gap that is provided in Italy by the national plan. It's a necessity to install not less than 5 gigawatts per year. At the moment, we are more near to 1 gigawatt per year. So if we will accelerate, maybe we can try to arrive to the real targets -- to arrive to the targets that are provided for Italy by the European agreements. Then you asked about the LatAm timing. The timing is that we are just now discussing with some possible pattern all of these initiatives and I think that we will find a solution in the next month may be possible that we will be able to give you important updates and news until the first half of the year.

And our final question for the call today is from Stefano Gamberini from Equita.

Just a few questions on my side. The first, regarding the role of the regulator in this situation. Can you discuss a little bit about the auto basic incentives that the regulator introduced and this EUR 150 million cumulated to 2024? And if you expect some other measures that could help you to go ahead with all the investments that you see in forth coming years? The second, regarding the authorization and the construction of Tyrrhenian Link, could you update us about the situation? If you are on track, both on authorizations and also procurement of all the needs you have on this topic?

Yes, about the first -- regarding the first topic, I think in terms of role of the regulator, it will be really important, sure. I think that our discussion with the regulator is in a -- as usual, a good level of agreement on the -- which are the most important topics, and which are the most important solutions for the future. I think that -- will have opportunities for the future, but about this topic, I will prefer to speak next week during the plan presentation. On the second point, the Tyrrhenian Link is in line with all the process in terms of authorization and also in terms of supply chain consider that regarding the supply chain [indiscernible] cities, we analyzed during the last week, the situation also by analyzing the possible impact of the war [indiscernible]. And we are really in a comfort zone, let me say, about this topic because our purchasing is organized in a way that it will be not impacted in a few months by this situation. If the situation will have a duration of 1 year, we have to discuss again. But if not, no problem for this.

We have no further questions in the queue, so I'll hand you back over to the speakers.

Well, thank you very much for your time, and see you next week for the business plan update presentation. Thank you.

Thank you to everybody.

Thank you for joining today's call. You may now disconnect.