TF1 SA (TFI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, and welcome to TF1 9-Month 2024 Results. My name is Melissa, and I will be your coordinator for today's event. Please note, this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'll now turn the call over to Pierre-Alain Gerard, Vice President, Finance, Strategy and Procurement. Please go ahead.

Thank you. Good evening, everyone, and thank you for joining us for our 9 months 2024 results presentation. During today's call, I will present the business highlights of our 2 operating segments, provide a detailed breakdown of our financial results and lastly, discuss our outlook. We will then open the floor for questions. For those of you who are joining us via the phone, note that we are broadcasting the presentation through the webcast. You can also find it on our corporate website. Now let's turn to Slide 4 to go over the key highlights of the first 9 months. Let's start with our audience results. After a first half in which the group recorded a strong year-on-year growth across all the targets, its audience shares were resilient during the summer despite the competition of the Paris Olympics on France Télévisions. Right after this event, the group immediately regained its leadership in commercial targets. In the first 9 months of the year, the group's audience shares were, therefore, almost unchanged year-on-year. This stood at 33% among women below 50 and 30% among 55, 49 year old. On digital, TF1+ is establishing itself as a leader in terms of reach in September with 33.7 million streamers. Now regarding our financial performance. The group's advertising revenue was up 4.5% year-on-year with a growth of 2.2% in linear and continued strong momentum for TF1+, which recorded a 39.5% growth year-on-year. Current operating profit from activities amounted to EUR 198 million close to the figure of 2023. Current operating margin from activities was 12.4% compared with 13.2% last year. The group maintained a strong financial position with a net cash of EUR 364 million at end September 2024. Based on our 9 months results and despite an advertising market showing signs of tension for late 2024, notably resulting from the political and tax situation in France, TF1 Group confirms its 2024 objectives. Let's turn now to a detailed review of our -- I'm on Slide 6. As -- TF1's reach is the key underpinning factor of the value we deliver to customers. In the first 9 months, the group maintained an arrival reach, covering 53% of French people every day, well above any other media, such as YouTube or SVOD services. The TF1 channel retained its leadership position on commercial targets and maintained a significant gap with its main competitor. Its audience share was 22.3% among women below 50 and reached 20% among 55, 49 -- 25, 49, sorry. Over the first 9 months, excluding programs related to the Olympics, the TF1 channel recorded the best ratings in each genre, French drama, entertainment, foreign series, news and movies. On Slide 7, the group had a solid lineup in the first 9 months, performing well both in linear and streaming. The TF1 channel maintained its solid position across all day parts, confirming the relevance of the programming strategy. It is illustrated by the leadership in audience share among women below 50 in the afternoon slot, on access and prime time, confirming the appeal of our 3 daily soaps and strong franchises. The new morning show, Bonjour! continue to gain popularity against French households. It recorded an 8.5% average audience in the 4-plus target at the end of September, an increase of almost 4 points on this day part compared to last year. As a reminder, the distinctiveness of the strategy implemented with TF1+ is to leverage the group's solid lineup to efficiently address both linear and nonlinear without incurring additional programming costs. Nonlinear now represents 20% of total usage among 25, 49 on the TF1 channel, a 7-point increase year-on-year. As illustrated on the right-hand side of the slide, this share is even higher on our strong franchises, 45% for the daily soap Plus belle la vie, 40% for Koh-Lanta, representing a 7-point increase year-on-year and 35% for the new French drama, Brocéliande. Now let's turn to our nonlinear developments. The group's success is attractive -- in attracting linear audiences is springboard for TF1+. As a reminder, our intention with TF1+ is to become the leading free streaming platform in the French-speaking market with the ambition to double the group's market share on the digital advertising market in the medium term. The platform continues to deliver on its road map and is making progress on each building block with a particular focus on ad inventory and monetization. During Q3, the group continued to unfold TF1+ aggregation strategy of third-party content. After the initial milestone reached in July, when the initial partnerships with L'Équipe, Le Fiagro tv and Deezer were announced, the group will supplement its offering with audiovisual content from Arte and A&E networks. By the end of 2024, TF1+ will offer over 25,000 hours of content available at any time compared to 15,000 when TF1+ was launched. These partnerships also enhanced TF1+ catalog by providing content in categories that complement those already available on the platform. TF1+ also continued its geographical expansion in French-speaking countries with the launch in Switzerland in late September after being rolled out in Belgium and Luxembourg in June. Let's now look at the production segment on Slide 9. Newen Studios revenue amounted to EUR 192 million at end September, down 3% year-on-year with a 2024 activity, mostly skewed to the fourth quarter, as previously announced. Newen Studio current operating profit from activities was EUR 7 million. The first 9 months were marked by the launch of Plus belle la vie, encore plus belle on TF1 in January, increasing the synergies with the media segment. Another key achievement was the closing of the acquisition of Johnson Production Group at the end of July, as announced as well. Highlights in the third quarter were deliveries of the drama series, The Teacher for Channel 5, Cassandre for France tv, while broadcasting of Le magazine de la santé resumed as relation with France Télévisions gradually normalize. In the fourth quarter, Newen Studio will deliver prestigious production, such as the second season of Marie-Antoinette for Canal+ and Memento Mori for Prime Video. Now let's move to a more detailed breakdown of our financial results for the first 9 months of 2024. You'll find additional information in our consolidated financial statements and their notes as well as our management report, all of which are available on our website. First, on Slide 11. TF1's Group consolidated revenue amounted to EUR 1.6 billion in the first 9 months, up 3% year-on-year. This growth was driven by good performance in advertising, totaling EUR 1.1 billion, up 5%. In Q3, specifically, advertising revenue was close to last year, in line with the company compiled consensus. Linear revenue was already -- was steady during the summer despite the competition from the Paris Olympics and decreased in September year-on-year as expected, given the base effect of the Rugby World Cup last year. TF1+ sustained its growth momentum at 37%, confirming the platform's appeal for both advertisers and streamers. At end September, advertising revenue for TF1+ was EUR 95 million, a 40% increase compared to last year. Again, we are only talking about advertising revenue here. Non-advertising revenue in the media segment was stable year-on-year at EUR 252 million. Newen Studio had a revenue of EUR 192 million at the end of September, including a contribution of EUR 8 million from JPG over the months of August and September. We remind you that Newen's 2024 activity -- is mostly skewed to Q4. On Slide 12. The group's current operating profit from activities amounted to EUR 198 million at the end of September, close to the figure of last year. Media COPA was stable year-on-year. In the third quarter, it benefited from the disposal of a brand license and a reduction in programming costs compared to last year when we had the Rugby World Cup. Increase in programming cost of EUR 43 million over 1 year was mainly driven by investments made during the first half in the context of a growing advertising market. This is something that we already discussed in H1. As a reminder, in the first half of 2023, programming costs have been reduced to face a tough advertising market. Newen Studio, COPA, was at EUR 7 million at the end of September 2024 compared with EUR 13 million in 2023, notably related to the distribution deals skewed to Q4 this year compared to Q3 and Q4 last year. On Slide 13, regarding the income statements, I have already commented on the consolidated revenue and current operating profit from activities. Looking further down, operating profit after the operating income and expenses stood at EUR 178 million, stable year-on-year. It included minus EUR 19 million of nonrecurring profit and expenses, mainly related to an extension of the agreement on jobs and carrier management signed in July 2023. Net profit attributable to the group was EUR 145 million in the first 9 months of 2024, up EUR 6 million, notably benefiting from financial income on surplus cash. Now let's look at the evolution of the net cash on Slide 14. Net cash stood at EUR 364 million at the end of September, compared with EUR 505 million at end December 2023, which represents a decrease of EUR 141 million. Over the first 9 months, free cash flow amounted to EUR 109 million and EUR 51 million after changes in working capital, reflecting an operating cash flow net of lease obligations of EUR 292 million, and net CapEx of minus EUR 183 million, both stable year-on-year, changes in working cap of minus EUR 59 million. We remind you that last year, we had collected a high level of payments related to the FIFA World Cup in Qatar in Q1 2023. Please note that the free cash flow after changes in working cap didn't include the proceeds from the brand license disposal that we collected early October. Acquisitions and disposals amounted to EUR 72 million, including the acquisition of JPG at the end of July, for around EUR 65 million, as announced. Other movements were already explained during H1 results. The rest is mainly related to the dividend payment of EUR 116 million paid in April. Let's now have a look at our outlook and target for the rest of the year. On Slide 16, in the Media segment, the last months of the year will be marked by a strong lineup for both linear and streaming with a significant number of franchises, including new programs like Cat's Eyes. In digital, the group continues its transformation with a road map for TF1+ consisting of 4 main initiatives. First, unlock additional potential from the operational optimization of TF1+. We will keep working actively on increasing awareness, visibility and daily consumption, and we will focus on ad load and monetization. In that respect, the second initiative recently announced during the TF1+ advertising upfront is to become the full funnel digital marketing platform for brands from awareness to conversion. The group will introduce innovation in the advertising field, providing opportunities for advertisers to reach an engaged audience in a brand safe and premium environment. Third, become France's first free-to-view aggregation platform, thanks to the partnerships already announced. And finally, accelerate the rollout of TF1+ after a very promising start in France, and the first phase of international expansion into French-speaking markets. TF1+ is now available in Belgium and Luxembourg and Switzerland on all devices. The next step will be an expansion in North Africa in 2025. In the production segment, activity will be concentrated in the fourth quarter, as previously announced. Newen Studio will deliver prestigious productions such as the second season of Marie-Antoinette for Canal+ and Memento Mori for Prime Video. Following the launch of Plus belle la vie encore plus belle on TF1 -- TFX and TF1+, Newen Studio will continue to increase its synergy with the Media segment, and in particular, will deliver the second season of [Master Crimes]. On Page 17, to sum up. TF1 delivered a robust performance in the first 9 months of 2024, maintaining stable audience shares despite France Télévisions coverage of the Olympics and increasing advertising revenue in both linear and streaming. TF1+ sustained its growth momentum in Q3, confirming its appeal for both advertisers and streamers. The group also announced new milestones for the platform. COPA was close to 2023 level. And the group benefits from a strong financial position. The group is continuing its transformation in an advertising market showing signs of tension for late 2024, notably resulting from the political and tax situation in France. Despite this context, the group confirms its objectives, keeping growing in digital, building on the promising launch of TF1+, maintain a broadly stable current operating margin from activities in 2024, continue to generate a solid cash flow, enabling the group to aim for a growing dividend policy over the next few years. Many thanks for your attention and now ready to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Conor O'Shea with Kepler Cheuvreux.

I have 3 questions. Firstly, Pierre-Alain, if you could just elaborate a little bit more about your comments on tension in the advertising market for Q4 in France. Would you expect a weaker performance compared with Q3 at this stage? Secondly, if you could just come back on the Q3 current operating profit, which was well above expectations. You mentioned an exceptional. Were there any other unusual items within that? Or were there some tactical cost savings on programming because of a weaker market? If you could just explain a little bit more how you got to this growth number in terms of margins for Q3, that would be great. And then the third question, just on taxes. In France, with the expected increases announced over a 2-year period, what is your estimate, at this stage, how much that could increase the effective tax rate initially?

Okay. Thanks, Conor. So first question about the tensions, at this stage, that visibility remains always low on the advertising market. But what you probably noticed in the various Q3 results of our advertisers is that they are kind of cautious for the end of the year. So at this stage, this is pretty much it. We expect probably some tightening given the -- your last question and the tax -- the potential tax evolution. Regarding COPA, so -- yes, we sold a licensed brand that we had in our portfolio, which is not used from an operational standpoint. I can -- it's EUR 27 million proceeds. You -- actually, you might have seen them in our cash flow statement [increase] this year. And apart from that, remember that at the end of H1, I told you that we increased our programming cost by EUR 55 million, and that it should decrease on the second half of the year. And this is exactly what you see, EUR 212 million in Q3, decreasing compared to what we had last year. But remember that last year, we had the Rugby World Cup. Nothing special apart from that.

And on the tax rate, could we expect at this stage for the next sort of 2 years?

You know how it works. It would be a charge in the P&L for Q4 around -- our estimate is around EUR 20 million for Q4, but the cash out would be in 2025 and lower than that for 2025, probably half of it.

Our next question is from Christophe Cherblanc with Bernstein.

The first one was just to come back on the disposal of the brand. Is that included in your guidance of stable COPA margin? And was that included to start with when you gave that guidance earlier this year? That would be the first question. The second question, just quick follow-up on what Conor was asking, was that the only one-off? Because I'm reading the provision section in the financial report and see there was a settlement on Molotov, there is a provision write back. So I was just curious as to whether that any impact in Q3. That is the second one. The third one was on Johnson. I think you said, Gerard Alain, something like EUR 8 million impact on revenues. What was the impact on EBITDA? And do you believe this 60% margin, 6-0, is sustainable in the medium term because I've never seen such a margin on production? And very last one, and then I'll jump back into the queue. We saw in the press, there was a mention of My Little Paris being potentially sold. So can you confirm that is the case or not? And I saw an indication of EUR 70 million of revenues. Is that the right order of magnitude?

Thank you, Christophe. So what was your question exactly on the disposal?

On the disposal it was -- was it in the guidance at the beginning because it helps.

It helps. We have this operation in mind that you know to sell something, you have to find a buyer. So we had various scenarios, including the disposal. When we told you that we were on the broadly stable margin for 2024, we had various scenarios and one including the sale of this brand license. Regarding the provision, I think you refer to something that happened last year in -- actually, in 2022 when we had EUR 9 million. The settlement from -- with Molotov didn't translate it into movements in our P&L. Then regarding JPG, this is a very specific genre. You know that we have another asset in Canada with a real one, also with high margins in this genre general. Is it sustainable? Yes. We have something that we announced, actually, I think, in H1 as well. We secured output deals with partners also securing the level of activity of JPG. And regarding My Little, we don't comment this kind of a rumor. We are regularly approached by various players, but I don't comment on this.

Okay. And just a quick follow-up on Johnson. You have no commitment to buy out the minorities. So you will recognize the minority in the P&L, right?

Yes.

[Operator Instructions] And we do have a follow-up question from Mr. Cherblanc from Bernstein.

Yes, I'm sorry. But I'm using the window. 2 quick ones. The first one is on the Olympic games impact. You said that September was down. I think I understand that July was fine. So was August, at the end of the day, negative or flat despite the loss...

I can provide you more color on that. Actually, the sum of July and August translated into a flat advertising revenue compared to last year. And this is something that we are proud of, the resilience of our ad sales team during the summer and this unprecedented kind of competition. And the decline in September is mainly due to the tough comparison effect with the Rugby World Cup.

Okay. And my last one was on -- it's a sector issue. We have [indiscernible] losing -- supposedly losing their DTT license. So have you made some assessment of how you could benefit from the situation because I would assume it will take time for new players to ramp up?

Yes, I agree. We have run the math as well. And you probably have seen some of the calculations done by a few of your colleagues. So yes, probably, but it won't be a game changer. But we could benefit slightly from this.

Thank you very much. I would like to turn the floor back over to management.

No further question?

As we have no further questions, I would like to turn the floor back over to our management for any closing remarks.

All right. Thank you. So yes, maybe what to remember from this Q3 call, we delivered a robust performance over the first 9 months. TF1+ sustained growth momentum since the launch in January. We had COPA close to 2023 level, and we have a strong financial position. So this leaves us in a favorable position towards the end of the year. Thank you very much for your attention and see you for full year results in February. Thank you.

Thank you very much. We do appreciate your participation. That concludes today's conference. You may now disconnect.