The Cigna Group (CI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 19, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Justin Lake
analystHi. My name is Justin Lake. I cover healthcare services here at Wolfe Research. Thank you for joining our second annual virtual Wolfe Research Healthcare Conference. Really very pleased to have the Cigna management here. We've got CEO of the company's Evernorth business, Tim Wentworth with us; as well as the new IR, congratulations to Alexis, new head of IR, Alexis Jones. Unfortunately, our GoToWebinar is kind of treating Tim very fairly. So we won't have him on the screen here, but he is with us. And we started a few minutes late, we'll go a few minutes over. We'll make sure we get through everything today. So Tim, thanks for joining us. Maybe you could give us a couple of minutes kind of refresh state of the union on what's going on with Evernorth and Cigna, and then we'll jump into questions?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSure. I'm going to be really brief because I know you've got a lot of questions. I mean, I can do a long fill about us here, but I won't. But thanks for having me and us, first of all, pleased to be here. I want to thank everyone that's dialed in. I apologize that we couldn't get the technology up, but I have a face for radio anyway. So this is better. In any event, just -- here's what I'd say. The bottom line for Evernorth, which we launched this year, after 2 years of working on merging the company's, driving synergies, driving core business results, execute on every promise that we've made to you and performing. We clearly could see that the market was thirsty for what we had and the opportunity to give it, a personality to create an executional platform of services that had its own identity. 90% of our revenue, which is from outside of Cigna's 4 walls, unlike our competitors, so we're driven to work externally, driven to work in novel and creative ways. And I think this year, you've seen that and the bottom line in the results are what really matters. And we've got 98% retention in our core book of business, higher than that in eviCore. All of our engines ESI, eviCore, Accredo, mail are growing this year in line with our expectations or better, and we are positioned to do a whole lot more in the future. We are driving great drug trends again. I think that will come out -- we'll again probably lead the industry as we have the last 5 years. We have record employee engagement scores. And we have powered Cigna's growth in the government business. The pharmacy part of that has been meaningful in terms of driving the top end of the range growth in the government business that we have. And what I finally say is this at the end of the year, it's sort of a cherry on the cake, and we'll talk about it, but Justin, I'm going to give you a hug if you're going to publish for this, which is primed for success. Because if you take a look at the year, we started out less than a year ago, signing the first deal with Prime Therapeutics that a lot of folks didn't think we'd get done, and we built off of that. That deal alone, we expanded our footprint beyond the initial deal to our SafeGuard programs, for example. Then round 2, we were again selected by Prime in a very competitive process to be their specialty pharmacy preferred provider as well as their mail service provider. And so you see us continuing to deepen our relationship with Prime. And from that standpoint, if you go out to Linkedin, I'm really, really proud of the fact that when we launched Evernorth, Ken Paulus, the CEO of Prime wrote and I quote, David, thank you for the engagement with your -- with my organization Prime Therapeutics. Your team led by Tim Wentworth has been not only professional, but highly effective as we worked through several complicated implementations. We appreciate the partnership with Cigna. You don't see the CEOs of customers do that very often. But the Prime relationship demonstrates that we are executing on what we are built to do. And then the Amazon Prime relationship shows that we are, again, able to be creative, able to be disruptive, able to lean in and leverage our assets, and I think the final thing I would point out and then turn it over to you, Justin, is this is done in a massively capital-efficient way. I think I'm proudest of and I'm an EVA guy from way, way back is that what we do leverages ability to coordinate and integrate and work with others in ways that don't require us to invest massive amounts of capital in bricks-and-mortar or other things. And enables us to be nimble, enables us to be a partner of choice, and I think portends to a very strong future. With that, I'm happy to open it up. I know you got a bunch of questions.
Justin Lake
analystThat's a great overview, Tim. And certainly, you talked about the innovation, the ability to partner. And obviously, the company made a lot of news a couple of days ago with your partnership with Amazon. I want to make sure I give you an opportunity to explain to us what that is today and what it isn't and maybe give us some background on the process there?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSure. And again, I'll try to be brief because I'm sure there's unanswered questions that I won't hit. So the short answer is, we've been talking with Amazon for quite some time. They've obviously been looking at how to expand their relationship in pharmacy. Some folks thought Whole Foods would be the answer and of course, so far, it hasn't. Some folks thought PillPack would be the answer, and so far it really hasn't -- I'll leave it to Amazon to talk about PillPack's growth, but you don't see -- you see PillPack in a lot of networks, but it comes in the network as a retail choice and folks that are looking for affordability and very often PillPack may not be the most affordable choice, but it's a choice nonetheless. And so we have certainly worked with Amazon to put in PillPack in various networks for patients where that was appropriate. By the way, I would step back and remind you that we have had a meaningful relationship with Amazon as a client for a long period of time. And therefore, we've enjoyed the growth that they've enjoyed this year in terms of adding -- folks. But more importantly, we've worked really collaborative -- collaboratively with them to execute for their members, the kind of expectations they have for their consumers. And in the end, the relationship we now have announced with them is one where if you take -- the first thing they launched was basically just kind of a rebranding -- relaunching of PillPack inside of retail networks, but also now for the front end on the Amazon website. But the second piece was disrupting the cash market. And the cash market is not gigantic, but it is important. It's been underserved. And if you think about Amazon's core strategy, as I understand it, it is to go after markets that are not well serving consumers. And they clearly looked at the existing opportunities in the space, whether that was the cash cards of retailers or GoodRx and others blank and they saw an opportunity to bring better value and better service. And they came to us. We spent meaningful time helping them understand what we could do, and they're using our Inside Rx chassis that we built 4 or 5 years ago for our cash program. They're using our unique, still-only-in-market ability to get rebates on brand drugs and cash programs to meaningfully lower the cost of brand drugs for cash-paying customers. And so they're executing that. We are adjudicating all of the claims that they're getting. We also are -- obviously, we built the retail network for them that their members can go into the Walgreen, CVS, et cetera, to access the Prime pricing at the retail counter in retail pharmacies. And so we've essentially did the entire private label back end for them as they, again, launch this cash program.
Justin Lake
analystThat's really helpful. So let's start with the cash program. Can you maybe compare and contrast it to, for instance, what you're doing GoodRx in terms of how the economics are split. My understanding is GoodRx gets the bulk of the economics from some of their slides versus the PDM. How does that work with you and Amazon? And I assume with GoodRx you're getting a percentage of the volume there because it's getting spread out among multiple PDMs in terms of adjudication? Whereas with Amazon, you'll be getting 100%. So maybe you could tell us or give us some ballpark number on how your penetration with GoodRx versus aiming for that 100% number with Amazon?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSure. I appreciate. And you pointed out the point that I would have made, which is that we have an exclusive with Amazon, which is fundamentally different than the relationship with GoodRx. And listen, we've been working with GoodRx for a number of years. They enabled us to launch more broadly than we could ourselves because we launched Inside Rx at the same time that we launched with GoodRx. I actually was on the CBS morning show with Dave Ricks from Lilly's kind of announcing the program a number of years ago. But Good obviously works with all the PBMs, leverages their databases and so forth. There is, as you say, an underlying profit model for Good that I don't want to speak for Amazon, but I think Amazon saw an opportunity to create additional value for consumers. We -- what I would say is this, as it relates to the economics. Obviously, it's incremental economics for us, which is good. I mean to the extent, Good folks go to Amazon, then we've got the same patient in a different chassis. We like the Amazon chassis a lot. I'm not going to compare and contrast to Good other than to say that it's good economics for us with Amazon and it was very appealing to, again, especially given that we don't have to really invest any capital here. To work with them as an exclusive partner with an eye toward, again, empowering their strategy. And I think that over time, folks want to know what that's going to be, and they need to ask Amazon that question. But I think that to the extent they want to take their cash program, and leverage the data from it. They're certainly going to be well positioned to do that right out of the chute. To the extent that, again, from our standpoint, we are their partner here. We think there are any number of things that depending on which way they go, we can support and help them with.
Justin Lake
analystThat's interesting. So in addition to 100% of the share, it sounds like the economics to you on a per script basis might be similar. So as I look at it, you're talking about Amazon bringing more value to the marketplace versus what's out there today. Would it be, on a relative basis, the things that, again, I've thought out here are one, the -- maybe Amazon is willing to take a more customer-friendly posture of what they're -- on the slice that they're taking for each script relative to what's out there. They certainly lead on prices in a lot of other markets. And then how much is that offset by using your model relative to having best pricing above 3, 4, 5 PDMs. How do you see that playing out in terms of paying that stuff?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveYes. I mean first of all, in terms of who they think they're going to kind of capture and for what reasons, that's really I don't want to comment on their strategy. They obviously have the ability to price however they want to, and we just are able to administer it really effectively for them. But the starting point, to your point, is discounts. And the point is, is they don't need to work with multiple PBMs to have a retail network of 50,000 stores and access that lowest price that the retailer is offering and then decide if they want to subsidize that incrementally or reduce fees compared to what others are offering and so forth. And so we're able to again enable based on how they want to dynamically evolve their positioning in that market and the value in that market. We're able to, a, adapt; but b, we've constructed a very powerful piece. The difference is for others working on multiple PBMs, those are -- that's a good way to get additional eyeballs and additional data and information, but we've got plenty of data to give Amazon what they need to plot their path here.
Justin Lake
analystGot it. How do you see the cash market evolving over time in -- from a pricing perspective, from a penetration perspective, do you have any visibility to how often when a customer uses one of these apps, they're eventually choosing, right? Is this a specialty insured company or a customer given your customer base or client base itself. How long an insured customer is going and moving over to cash pay when they use this?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveYes. I think the question lies in wondering what's going to happen with 2 things. One is the Affordable Care Act and other things that have sort of created insurance for those that didn't have it before. And 2 is plan designs. As you think about the fact that one of the things that opened up the cash market beyond its sort of natural size, which isn't terribly large, by the way, in the grand scheme of prescriptions. You have 6-point-some billion scripts and probably under -- I think it's well under 500 million cash scripts. And so if I think about plan designs, the high deductible plans opened up in many cases, for certain patients, roughly 5% to 7% of patients -- or sorry, 5% to 7% of prescriptions where you'd say that the cash price mostly in generics, by the way, that the cash price for a member who is in a funded plan could be better from GoodRx or now Amazon or Blink or others, than it was through their funded benefit. And so members would opt out while in donut holes, deductibles, out-of-pocket maxes, et cetera, and use it. And I will tell you that I'm not predicting you're going to see plan designs that are massively more consumer unfriendly, for lack of a better member, unfriendly, for lack of a better term than they are now. I think folks realize we've probably hit a point with co-pays and so forth that that's not going to be the way to manage cost in the future. There's just not enough leverage in all of that, particularly in the generic drugs. And so I think the market will grow, but I don't think the market is going to be the exploding. I don't think you're going to see a large cash market in specialty, for example, on the medical side, for example. And so it's a niche market. It's one we didn't participate in 5 years ago, and we said we were going to participate in it. We were going to do it in a clever way. We did that, and now Amazon is taking advantage of that, as we've also benefited from our Inside Rx program. And so I think that's going to be the long-term question. I don't see the cash market evolving massively, but if it does, we're really well positioned.
Justin Lake
analystGot it. I appreciate all that. So then let's take a step further. And you talk -- you said you've been talking to Amazon about multiple things over a fairly long period of time. Amazon announced Prime, a 2-day shipping for their Prime members. Clearly, that seems like a first step. How -- are you involved in -- just to make sure I understand, are you involved in that at all from a back-office perspective? Are you -- beyond the cash pay part are you doing anything else with Amazon at this moment?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveNo. We're not on the back end. We certainly -- again, as we do with all relationships, we look at where could we potentially help. I think, depending on what kind of volumes Amazon experiences and what their capacities are and so forth, we think we're well positioned to help them if they were to have meaningful expansion in volume there. And what I would point out is, again, the back end dispensing, which we do really well, 100 million plus 90-day scripts every year, robotic, 99.999% accuracy, et cetera, et cetera, by far and away the industry standard and that is growing for us. But if Amazon were to want to hook into our back end, that's certainly something that we would talk to them about. And what I would point out, if you think about all of this is -- again, Amazon is about disrupting the member experience. Now 2-day shipping for Prime is great. The challenge in doing that and Amazon is well aware of that this is a new prescription coming into a funded benefit may have multiple checks that need to be done, including potentially speaking with a physician, and it's almost never going to be the case that, that script will come in and go out in 2 days. And so what we've learned, because we did some 2-day shipping, is that you've got to be really thoughtful about how you communicate with members around their expectations, depending on what kind of prescription it is. If it's a renewing one, if it's a refill, et cetera, clean refills, you can definitely get done in 2 days. We do. Yes, I think 60-some percent of our scripts are more -- are out in the member's hands before 3 days if they're clean. And so I think Amazon will -- they're going to learn, they're going to experiment. They have that capability at PillPack to manage benefits administration inside of the piece. But certainly, if they were to meaningfully become a large retailer at scale, which hey, listen, I would welcome that from a standpoint of being able to do what -- the end of the day, it's not the end of the PBM the Amazon gets in, it's a result of it, and we will benefit from it by creating, again, competition amongst the retailers for access to our members. And to the extent that Amazon can define that access not just through unit cost parity or better, but through other service elements or clinical elements, then they're going to have a really good shot. And I think that's what they've got to think about over time as they now step into pharmacy more completely.
Justin Lake
analystAnd so where I would follow with that is, we've seen it with your Prime relationship, right, where it started with purchasing, now has moved to specialty, and I want to talk to you about where you think that goes next. But to kind of follow-up on Amazon for a minute, the -- I think, I'm certainly not an expert on Amazon, but the distribution logistics seems to be what they're really good at, obviously, purchasing and kind of the administration part behind the scenes is what Express Scripts and PBMs are really good at. The thought process being that probably the biggest gate that Amazon getting bigger is their purchasing power. Is that something that you think down the road you'd be open to?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveWe'd be open to working with Amazon in any number of ways as they evolve the strategy. And yes, I mean the reason we built Ascent this is a good transition to Prime Therapeutics. The reason we built Ascent was strategically 2 reasons. One, we saw that rebates were getting more and more challenging because pharma was just more and more resistant in today's environment, particularly with COVID, feeling kind of good about themselves. And so we needed to make sure that we continued to be able to have a meaningful chassis to get and protect rebates. And secondly, because we could build something that would be strategically interesting to potentially large others that we could work with in more durable ways than just a PBM or a rebate contracting relationship. And so Prime saw that is obviously valuable and evaluated and differentiated. And to the extent that, again, Amazon wants to move further down that path. If PillPack wants to look at how they purchase products and potentially look at differing ways to do that, we have a number of GPOs that are very successful, not just Ascent. We have a generic purchasing GPO as well that we're more than interested in talking to potential members, including Amazon about.
Justin Lake
analystThat's really helpful. So that leads us to the next question that I get a lot from investors, which is Amazon certainly been disruptive in a lot of the markets that they've gotten into. They haven't always been successful. But in some of them, they've been disruptive to the pain of their competitors. You've got a big network of business, for instance, right, that is very profitable. How do you kind of weigh the potential of letting the fox into the hen house, so to speak, with enabling Amazon from a purchasing perspective to be competitive when they're already very good at logistics and distribution versus the potential disruption in your mail order business, versus the other opportunities that it is to work in a company that's their best scale and size and potential?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSure. I appreciate that question and I got asked that once. So I'm going to apologize, somebody may have heard me say this 3 years ago because I'm incredibly consistent when I was on CNBC. I think one of the times, I said when I was asked about the fox in the hen house. if we were to work with them, my answer was we have a lot of hen houses. And as you've seen over the last several years, we have meaningfully diversified and managed to ensure that our patients and our payers could direct the scripts to the places they wanted based on their particular strategies. And so for example, you've seen us push Retail90 to very high levels in our book of business, and that was viewed by -- let's call it, 10 years ago, when Kmart bought -- with CVS bought Kmart for example was hugely threatening to us. What we've seen is our mail members are very sticky. They're very happy, but so are our Retail90 members, and we're able to surround them with clinical programs as well. And from our standpoint, the real question is how we underwrite the relationship we have with our B2B clients is determined by how much mix of business comes through different channels, what kind of specialty relationship we have. There are -- it's a very sophisticated underwriting model that would allow for and has allowed for, are managing clients that have no mail and are being profitable in an appropriate way. And our clients who have a lot of mail and our clients who have grown their mail. And so we're not at all concerned about where we start? And this is, I think, the most important thing to understand, Justin, is my thinking and our thinking is real simple here. Amazon is going to go into pharmacy. If they're going to go into pharmacy, I would much rather be working with them than not. I would much rather harness what they do and create value for my book of business rather than view it as some threat that I have to stop. I will use mail, I will use my mail that, in part, drive Amazon to lower prices, right? I mean, in other words, we've been a very, very cost-efficient, high-service, great-outcomes organization. And the final point I'd make is, we get paid by and large -- and I know you spoke with Stuart Peltz yesterday, you had him on the panel, and Stuart would tell you this with the large employer coalition he works with, what they're interested in, isn't our shipping scripts out the back door. That's nice, and they have a lot of mail service. What they pay us for is the clinical front end is the risk that we take on overall adherence and outcomes across a series of comorbidities. That's the value that we add. Our mail capability is terrific. It's a differentiator. It does force others to price more aggressively because they know that we've got that competitive threat. We love taking care of the DoD through our mail service operations and that continues to be a very strong relationship that, as you may know, is now we've completed the RFP for hopefully being selected for another 7 years. I think we will be based on service and based on our competitiveness and our efficiencies, but the real magic of what we do and we'll be doing in the future is how we integrate with others and how we drive clinical and overall outcomes and continue to innovate, mail is just one hen house of many.
Justin Lake
analystThat's helpful. And the other thing I've tried to do some more work on it, and I'd love to just get 30 seconds on is, when you look at the composition of your mail spreads, it's obviously very different to some fellows specialty script, for instance, versus a script on cholesterol, your typical cholesterol drug that is [ shipped ] every 90 days. Can you talk to us a little bit about the composition of your mail? And how much of that is -- how do you think about specialty being defensive versus the more typical mail and how that splits out?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveYes. I mean, everything depends on what -- how you're counting, right? So if you look at the number of patients we serve, it's probably mail is probably 20x what we serve in Accredo because they're rare diseases and so forth. But when you look at the intensity of service, right, it's probably 40x more consultive to serve these patients. In many cases, sending nurses to their homes, having monthly conversations with them, with a pharmacist, et cetera. And so when we look at it, while Accredo in many cases does distribute to the home using ice chest and all sorts of other things and coaches patients through the administration of their product. It's a far more complicated back end process and front-end process. And so we think it's complementary. We think, obviously, the specialty assets that we have is really key to unlocking value for payers and patients and physicians. I mean we are, by far and away, the preferred specialty pharmacy for physicians. Our NPS providers is extraordinarily high, and we measure it. And so again, what we like about specialty is that it puts us in a position of much, much more sophisticated value creation for multiple constituents, including pharma companies, who are looking for 1 or 2 players to meaningfully take care of those patients in many cases because of the patient numbers and the detail needed to not only take care of those patients, but capture the data in the new product and report it back to the pharma company so they can maintain safety, et cetera. So really different businesses. We are certainly committed to both businesses, but there's no question that I get asked a lot more questions in panelist meetings about what we're doing to help manage specialty, then what I would call the almost commoditized distribution of mail, which is probably close to 90% generic prescriptions right now. So mail was the enabler of the generic wave and continues to be a really great high-volume, high-adherence, clinically focused with the specialist pharmacists at the front end model. So in that respect, the models are similar, but a lot of differences.
Justin Lake
analystThat's helpful. Let's talk about the -- you mentioned Prime, and that's been -- that was another interesting story. And frankly, we had some of the same conversations back when you announced that in terms of a -- making a competitor of yours stronger from a purchasing perspective, and the -- and you've answered some of those questions by evolving that relationship with the specialty. Can you talk a little bit about -- you told us a little bit about that process and how the specialist thing about and how you won -- you won an RFP that was certainly pretty broad. Where do you think Prime goes over time? Is it to work with them more on the pharmacy side? Or do you see opportunities in terms of working with the constituents in a 15 to 20 blues that are part of Prime to sell them other capabilities inside of this Evernorth operation?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveYes. I mean I think that we take nothing for granted with Prime. We've had to earn our way into every place that we're providing value for them today, and that will continue. But I think that Prime's plans are competing against large national players. They need to compete. They compete in a very differentiated ways. They're very local. They've got very powerful brands. They've got very strong relationships with providers. And therefore -- or and they want those relationship providers to be deepened. And therefore, I think where it goes is the affordability paradigm for those plans that they're going to have to drive to compete and create access to those patients as well as the service because I think as well, Prime's customers are very focused on servicing members really well. I think a big piece of why we were successful in winning the Accredo business was not just the cost paradigm and the clinical paradigm, but frankly, the patient and physician service paradigm. And so I fully expect as we continue to execute and perform for Prime that it's what we built Evernorth for is to land and expand relationships with the 120-plus health plans that we have relationships with and the 2,000 plus employers and the government entities and so forth. And so I'm not going to predict what it would be next. We want to follow Prime's sort of strategy. But when I look at our Evercore asset, for example, I think there's some really interesting things that we have on the drawing board that Prime's plans could benefit from and snap into. And again, as we deepen the things that we're doing for those plans, the ability to coordinate with other things that we are building will be so easy for them that all it will be up to us to do is continue to perform, earn their trust and show the value. And I think we will, over time, be able to not only bring new ideas to them, but in fact, consider what ideas we ought to be building in the context of them because it's such a powerful good relationship along with the other, particularly regional health plans and blues that we work with.
Justin Lake
analystYes. Is there any way to put some numbers around in terms of, for instance, your purchasing power and how it might have changed post bringing Prime into the fold? And where -- how much growth do you think you can get in terms of specialty expensing from having up or being in Prime's network?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSo the first part is a little harder than the second. But our purchasing power was superb when we built Ascent. Our view was that others would benefit from our purchasing power and we would be able to evaluate what kind of incremental purchasing power we would be adding by virtue of the specifics of a particular partner such as Prime. So ours was powerful. We didn't -- I'm not going to say we didn't need Prime to be at a very high level, but we were performing highly. Prime -- we didn't start this by saying, "hey, we think we could get more for us and you, and we're substandard and you are substandard. So let's do something together that makes us scale." It was that we were well scaled. Prime was well scaled, but we thought could benefit from some of the things that we had done, and they evaluated that in a very deep way. And so it's hard to say how much more purchasing power we've had. But I do like the fact, I think there's no question. You get more attention at the table with pharma if you're representing more lives. And Prime brought a painful increase in that to the table. So it adds, I think, meaningful hasten durability to what we were already doing, and we think that's an opportunity for some others as well. That's why we've built Ascent. As it relates to Accredo, each of Prime's plans gets to make the decision as to whether they stay in AllianceRx or will actually come over to Accredo. We have pretty strong belief that we will earn our way into working with virtually every one of those plans, but we have to earn it. We're already installing [indiscernible] and we've got more -- on the docket for April. We could not install all of them for January we wanted to because to answer your question, we would be looking at a double-digit percentage increase in the size of Accredo over what it was before, and we're going to manage that in a really thoughtful way. You've seen us manage really, really well, transitions of all of Cigna's book of business on to Accredo, all of Cigna's business and government side onto our PBM platform, about 70-now percent of Cigna's commercial business onto the PBM platform with December and a January 1 finalization of that transition with no noise in the marketplace. And so we'll execute really well for Prime. And over time, I believe we win all those businesses and then do so, we do have the capacity to take good care of those patients. And again, I see a significant increase in Accredo. It's probably approaching 20%.
Justin Lake
analystThat's really interesting. And to be clear, my understanding we had David Schlett on yesterday as well, the CFO of Prime. And my understanding of that deal that they signed with you is that, maybe it's not a [ binary ] choice, right, between AllianceRx and yourselves. My understanding is that they would be adding you in addition to AllianceRx. Am I misunderstanding that? Would you get a 100% of the business? If all those blues that move over to your side.
Timothy Wentworth
executiveCertainly, theoretically, we could. Yes. I mean they have the choice as they always do. What Prime did was as their PBM, and frankly, since -- as their representative went out and looked in the market for the next-generation set of capabilities and value creation that they could bring back and say, this isn't just a network deal we're adding another participant. And this is a preferred relationship with someone we think is better. And we just got to go and improve that. And again, each plan is going to make their own decision, but we theoretically, theoretically, could be serving virtually 100% of those patients.
Justin Lake
analystThat's exciting. And if you look at the growth opportunity, I know you've historically called the PBM business, the Health Services business, a 3% to 5% grower. In 2021, you're going to get the benefit of some cost-cutting that you had put in place years ago with the announcement of the Anthem transition. You've got Prime coming in -- it wasn't accretive this year, but you talked about it being additive over time and now specialty. Do we see -- should we expect -- I say, I think the market is expecting to see accelerated growth above 3% to 5% with these items. Is that a reasonable thought process for a couple of years given what's going on here?
Timothy Wentworth
executiveSo first of all, if I give you forward guidance today, Cordani will never let me talk to you again. But what I'd say is this. The 3% to 5%, when you really think about it, is a pretty darn wide range that we've given. And 3% would be really terrific and 5% would be more than almost anyone would have anticipated. The things you just mentioned -- the other thing I would point to is we've done really scaled deals this year. And so you may see claims counts, which increasingly profits per claim isn't even necessarily the right way to measure our business because of all the services we're doing and so forth. But you may see claims counts growing at a more rapid. We don't -- by the way, we don't write business that we can't and don't make money on. But large deals, as in most businesses, your larger customers get your best price, get the most leverage, bringing the most scale to you. And so those things are additive and valuable. And the collection of things you cited, including our disciplined management of the costs post the Anthem are the kind of things that one should expect should push us to the high side of the range or above it. And we'll be giving you guidance in a short bit. And I think you'll have a sense of that.
Justin Lake
analystGot it. Look, I really appreciate your time here, Tim. I can sit here for another hour and still fill it up. I can't thank you, can't thank, Alexis, having you guys 2 days after this announcement. I told her, I wanted to give her a hug if it wasn't for the screen. Really, really appreciate you being here, Tim. Thanks again for this. And congratulations on all the new opportunities and success. Look forward to hearing more in the fourth quarter.
Timothy Wentworth
executiveYes. Thanks, Justin. Really appreciate it. The timing was good for us, too. I love being able to get out and tell our story at the end of a year like this year has been. I hope everyone out there stays safe and healthy. Thanks for being interested in us. And stay tuned. Take care, Justin.
Justin Lake
analystAll right. Take care, Tim. Thanks again, Alexis.
Alexis Jones
executiveThank you, Justin.
Justin Lake
analystThanks, everybody.
Timothy Wentworth
executiveBye-bye.
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