The Kraft Heinz Company (KHC) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Greetings, and welcome to The Kraft Heinz Company First Quarter 2025 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce Anne-Marie Megela, Head of Global Investor Relations. Thank you. You may begin.

Thank you, and hello, everyone. Welcome to the Q&A session for our first quarter 2025 business update. During today's call, we may make forward-looking statements regarding our expectations for the future including items related to our business plans and expectations, strategy, efforts and investments and related timing and expected impacts. These statements are based on how we see things today, and actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. Please see the cautionary statement and risk factors contained in today's earnings release which accompanies this call as well as our most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K filings for more information regarding these risks and uncertainties. Additionally, we may refer to non-GAAP financial measures, which exclude certain items from our financial results reported in accordance with GAAP. Please refer to today's earnings release and the non-GAAP information available on our website at ir.kraftheinzcompany.com under News and Events for a discussion of our non-GAAP financial measures and reconciliations to the comparable GAAP financial measures. I will now hand it over to our Chief Executive Officer, Carlos Abrams-Rivera for opening comments. Carlos, over to you.

Thank you, Marie, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. At Kraft Heinz, we are proud to be a trusted partner in kitchens everywhere, providing comfort and connections, particularly in these moments of uncertainty. Now despite growing market pressure in the first quarter, we delivered top line results in line with our expectations with strong cash flow performance and a healthy balance sheet. We are also encouraged by the progress we're making in improving brand superiority. While these advancements are not yet reflected in the financial results, they do give me confidence that we are putting in place the right building blocks. Our commitment to making the necessary investments to deliver quality and value offerings to our consumers' unwavering. At the same time, we are closely monitoring market tension and have adjusted our guidance accordingly. With that, I have Andre joining me. So let's open the call for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from Andrew Lazar with Barclays.

Carlos, you mentioned in the prepared remarks that the revised outlook provides the necessary flexibility to dial in on investments as deemed appropriate. And that said, this is not the first time, right? Kraft Heinz has sort of used this language around proposed investments and so far, it's not proved enough, although admittedly in a very dynamic consumer environment. Many industry players, I think, have taken the approach of kind of like increasing investments on what seems to be more of an incremental basis to see how the consumer reacts, almost like a sort of a test-and-learn approach. The magnitude of today's guidance cut is larger than previous ones. But I'm still getting a lot of questions from investors, I guess, as to whether this is more of the same sort of approach or if you see it as more comprehensive in some way?

Andrew, thanks for your question. First, let me just say, we are continuing to invest in the business despite what we are seeing in terms of the macroeconomic uncertainty because -- frankly, because we're confident in the strategy that we have. And I think in moments like this, company can be sometimes overly cautious and defensive or play offense. And we are choosing to play offense with discipline. So we are, in fact, prioritizing investments in marketing, R&D and technology. And the way we're doing that, Andrew, is we focus on increasing returns of our marketing dollars by shifting more towards a consumer-facing marketing. We're also making sure we're optimizing the location across the brands and media types so that can, in fact, we make sure we have the best ROI with an improved quality of the messaging at the same time. I mentioned investing in R&D. We are going to continue to invest behind our innovation pipeline, we are making sure we are closing the gap to our investment levels, that is the 1% of net sales. And I mentioned technology. We are going to continue investing in our technology as well because that actually has helped us in terms of driving the efficiencies in the business by investing in things like automation and enhanced digital tools. So I think you also spoke to why is this different? What's different now versus in the past? And I'll tell you one of the important parts of what is different is the fact that we're also investing through the brand growth system. And if you recall, the brand growth system is a repeatable global model for understanding how we see opportunities within our brands and how do we make sure we drive superiority on those brands through both products and packaging and making sure that every communication has the right brand resonance, value equation and on the execution. So it's not just what we are spending or how we are spending too. And we mentioned in the past that we have done this in about 10% of our brands in 2024 after a way to pilot. That is, in fact, now being scaled up to 40% of our business by the end of this year. So that idea of us having more confidence in not investing because now we have proven that the brand growth systems help us identify the right opportunities and allows us to make sure we take the right steps in order to fuel the investments, I think it's part of why we're going to be playing offense with discipline. So you'll see us actually step up our investments in marketing and also to make sure that as we renovate our products, we are supporting it with the right focus on the consumer communication. So we invest behind the BGS. We make sure we have the great products, packaging quality and then we make sure we have the right communication to support that and drive that forward. is something that helped us work with our Philadelphia brand in 2024. It helped us in the Heinz U.K. business in the last year. And now we are going to be seeing that across all of our brands as we -- towards 2024, 2025 here in the U.S.

I think -- Andrew, just to add to Carlos. So remember that in our prior guidance, we already had contemplated a step-up in price investments. And just roughly speaking, to the extent of 100 bps on the top line. So it was a relevant investment and concentrated on those categories we have previously described. And we also had, in the prior guidance already contemplated a double-digit increase in media. So we were still retaining our marketing percentage of revenue at 4.5% in the prior guidance. And with that, by reallocating expenses with the marketing bucket, we could free up double-digit increase in media. Now in this new guidance, we have open the room to further accelerate our market investment. Remember that in our long-term algorithm, we want to be approximate at 5%. We have in the midpoint of the guidance, around 4.8% of markets, so 30 bps step up. There is still -- this number might still fluctuate a little bit up or down, depending how the dynamics happen throughout the year including final impact on tariffs, but we want to accelerate the step up to reach the 5%. And we also have in the guidance some impact in COGS linked to product renovation, as Carlos said, as we continue to deploy the brand growth system, we are seeing opportunities not only to improve quality of messaging and have more media pressure, but also to renovate the products and ensure a stronger superiority.

The next question comes from Yasmine Deswandhy with Bank of America.

So I kind of wanted to dig in a little bit on North America and the organic sales guidance update for this year. So just for 2Q specifically, there's few items here to consider. You talked about the Easter timing shift, and then there's a plant closure lap, but there were also impacts last year on Lunchables from the consumer report and then you the Capri Sun reformulation impacting consumption. So could you help size those impacts, if any, to the second quarter? And if there's anything else that we should consider that will drive a gap between North America shipments versus consumption?

Sure. Thanks for the question. Look, we expect second quarter top line to be better than the first quarter top line. The effect of Easter, as I have said before, is approximately 90 bps or 100 bps, so that will be a tailwind in the second quarter. In addition to that, we have emerging markets is not part of the U.S., but we have emerging markets further accelerating from where we were in Q1. And inside the U.S., aside from Easter, we do have -- we're going to see improvement in the ACCELERATE platforms. So cream cheese and Ore-Ida for example, they declined in Q1, and this was totally expected because we are lapping competitors with out-of-stock issues last year. But now we restore growth and you're going to see growth in those 2 categories in the quarter. And to your point, we will see some improvement in Lunchables, it still will not be the levels that we believe we can achieve as part as the main renovation reach the market at the end of the second quarter, but you should see Lunchables improving, particularly after mid-May and June. So that's when we really start to fully lap the consumer report from last year. On the Muscatine, on the factory, we are lapping that as we head into the second quarter, but taking into mind that the industry Foodservice has go down quite a lot this year. So we are not going to see necessarily a growth in Away From Home in the second quarter. But beyond that, you will see the ACCELERATE platforms sauces, cream cheese, mousse and snacking with a better performance in comparison to Q1.

Okay. Great. That's really helpful. And a quick follow-up to that. Just looking into the second half of the year, obviously, understanding that 2Q will see some nice improvement on volumes given the onetime items that you just mentioned. Your organic sales cut was basically all volume since the pricing contribution was left unchanged. Do you see a need for North America volumes to inflect positively in the second half in order to hit your guide? Or do you expect growth in international, particularly in emerging markets to be enough to hit your guidance for the year?

No, we don't need. In fact, in our -- the midpoint of our guidance, total company does not get you positive in any quarter.

The next question comes from Tom Palmer with Citi.

I wanted to ask on the COGS inflation, the revised outlook. Just any breakdown of how much of that is related to tariffs versus maybe other drivers of that increase? And then just the timing of when we really start to see that step up?

Sure. So in our prior outlook, we had inflation at 3%. So before any tariffs, our guidance is step up to 5% of COGS particularly in some commodities like coffee and meat, we saw a big increase in comparison to rest of the last time we met. So the base inflation was already up to 5%. And now with the tariff impact, I mean, obviously, a lot of uncertainty still around that. But we do estimate with what we know so far an impact in 2025 of 150 to 200 bps on the COGS. Timing-wise, look, we don't know for sure, right? We are assuming that this will be concentrated in the second half, maybe there will be some impact in the second quarter. We built some inventory where possible in certain items as we anticipate that should happen. So that gives a little relief of a month maybe 2 in some of the items, but the impact should be mostly concentrated in the second half.

And I noted sorry -- I noticed that there wasn't a change in kind of that pricing outlook, as Yasmine just noted, but it sounds like -- is it -- there's price investment in some areas and then there is incremental pricing in other areas? Maybe just any detail you can provide there?

No. In the midpoint of the new guidance, we don't have further investments in price in addition to the 100 -- approximately 100 bps we already had contemplated in the initial outlook. So the incremental investments, as I said, is mostly on marketing, particularly media, product renovation and there is some sampling investments because we remember that as we renovate the products, including the ones that we have renovated last year like Capri Sun, we really need to step up the trial curve. So we are stepping up sampling investments heading into the summer.

The next question comes from David Palmer with Evercore ISI.

A couple of questions. You updated your inflation guidance, and thanks for your comments there on the tariffs being incorporated in that. I'm wondering how you're thinking about pricing offsets to that? And when it gets to a certain level of input inflation and your willingness to price that away, are there levels where you have to be cognizant of rising price elasticity, perhaps over a few percent, for example, where you're more aware of any sort of list pricing and you have to start moving towards other types of adjustments or offsets. And then separately -- and Andre, I know you've been very active in thinking about promotional activity and returns on that promotion activity. When we look at our data, it looks like Kraft Heinz has been a little bit different than some of the other larger food companies and that it's well below 2019 levels in terms of its volume on promotion, whereas some -- many years if not most other companies look like they're at those levels already and continuing to rise I'm wondering if you kind of recognize that, that juxtaposition and how you think about the promotion strategy going forward? Is that something that you're noticing as well?

Well, let me start with the second part, it's Carlos, and then have Andre going to comment a little bit on the first part of your questions. First of all, what you're seeing is the fact that it follows our strategy. I mentioned earlier that we are going to continue to make investments and play offense with discipline. I think for us, it's the opportunity to make sure that when we are investing, we are doing this in a way that is thoughtful about the return of that investment. And that we are building something that supports our strategy and allows us to grow not only in the short term, but really in the medium and long term. So where we're investing in pricing for a promotional event is because we believe that it actually creates the kind of base volume opportunities as we go post that particular event. So you'll see us continue to invest in times for the year that consumer needs us whether that is now Memorial Day, whether it's July 4, where it's Back to School, we're just going to do it in a disciplined way to make sure that, again, is supporting the stride that we have and not just change a short-term volume that actually does essentially all you do is kind of rent volume for a short period of time. The other piece that is important to note is that when we're making those investments, we're also doing in concert with our brand growth systems investments so that when we are going for a back-to-school time period, and we have now a renovated new Lunchables, whether we have a renovated Capri Sun, that's a moment for us to not only stimulate the demand, but also making sure that the consumers get to try the best product that we have ever made on those categories. So I think it's that combination that is kind of guiding our principle versus kind of how competitors are playing at this particular time, they're using different strategy. We believe we want to make sure that we're doing things smartly because our focus is continue to drive profitable growth for the future. Andre, you want to comment on the first part?

Yes. So Dave, look, on the promo side, Carlos said, we will continue to be disciplined and really seeking those promotions with good returns. You will see a step-up in promotional activity during the key windows, particularly now in summer. So you will see that number stepping up as part of our initial guidance. Again, we have approximately 100 bps of incremental price investment in the U.S. And in regards to pricing, the tariffs -- look, we are trying to do everything we possibly can to minimize the amount of price necessary. So given things like to delay. We have anticipated some purchases. We are looking at alternative sourcing. There is opportunity for, in some cases, reformulation, which takes a little bit longer, there are opportunity on the mix side. There are certain SKUs within the categories that are less impacted than others when it comes to tariff. So all of that is at play. We are stepping up productivity in the year. We started the year expecting 3.5% of COGS. Now we're expecting a little more than that. So we are taking all the possible levers. But pricing might be as a side. So -- but again, I think this is work in progress.

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo.

I wanted to ask a question about gross margin and just a follow up elsewhere. From a gross margin perspective, specifically the Q2 weakness that you're expecting and in the context of just how this typically works is the primary driver of Q2 gross margin weakness, coffee inflation? And I guess, I asked that question in the context of historically, this is really a pass-through category, where pricing comes through to offset the inflation. Understanding there's always going to be quarter-to-quarter volatility. But are you seeing perhaps less ability to pass through the coffee inflation just given the overall coffee inflation backdrop? And then just secondly, are there any areas within your portfolio or broader portfolio where you're seeing more bright spots from a market share perspective because I think similar to last quarter, where we continue to struggle is the category has really softened, but market share performance has come under more pressure. And so what are those things that you've been doing over the past few months, maybe specifically where you're saying, okay, that specific strategy is working to kind of right the ship here because it's been a bit harder to see in the data.

Sure. Thanks for the question. I will start with the Q2 margins. So basically, we do expect pressure on the gross margin in the second quarter. And there are a few different items affecting the margin. The first one is, as I just said in your prior question, we do expect step up on the promotion activity as we started the shipments for the summer season. So we will see a lower price in the P&L. The second, we are facing impact of some hedge losses in the second quarter, and they are quite large. And the good thing is that once they roll off head into Q3, we'll start to see some of those commodities that's starting to come down like dairy start flow through the P&L. And third, to your point, there are some increases in certain commodities in Q2. And the way we see right now, some of them are going to reach the peak in Q2, and that issue start to go backwards or decelerate that at least as we head into the third quarter. So those 3 elements are the key contributors for the gross margin pressure that we are seeing. And there is a little bit as well of the product renovations that we're starting to step up. So as a result of that, plus we're starting to step up investment in marketing. We do expect operating income to decline double digits in the second quarter. When in regards to the bright spots, I pass over to...

Yes. Listen, I think if you look at our year-to-date, our latest 5 weeks versus the year-to-date you see us making progress in all of our ACCELERATE businesses. So whether it's Taste Elevation, whether it's ready-to-eat meals, whether it is snacking. So all those things are progressing. I think in Q1, obviously, we had the impact of Easter. So I think that we are seeing other data with several weeks of the Eastern now read, we're goining -- you're going to continue to see that improvement. And I think, for example, in a business like our Philadelphia Cream Cheese, which as we now kind of have the Q1 lapping of the private label not have been on the business in the category last year, you see that continue to drive growth. Whether you see that in our desserts business that continue to drive growth after reformulations and focusing on Better for You products in that category. So you will see that many of the investments we're making will continue to play out as we go through the year. And I mentioned that in the opening statement, which is a lot of the great things that we are seeing in terms of the building blocks and not yet all reflecting the data, but those are things that you'll see us as we continue to progress throughout the year. I'm also frankly, very encouraged about the fact that some of the big innovations we have done have continued to now drive growth. So a business like our Mexican strategy that we didn't have 2 years ago, we grew double digits last year, and we are growing double digits again this year. So that also gives me confident in the fact that as we are building innovation, we're doing it with the right insights with consumers to drive growth that is sustainable and profitable for the long term. Thanks for your question.

Operator, we have time for 1 more question.

Our next question comes from Megan Clapp with Morgan Stanley.

This is Alexia on for Megan. In the prepared remarks, you guys mentioned the wider operating income guide partly reflects changing policy landscape, should we be thinking about that from a top line perspective? Or is that related to costs? Just any incremental color you could give there would be great.

Thanks for the question. Look, there are, as you know, a lot of things being discussed under consideration that may have implication on the business, positive or negative. So part of the reason why we have this wider range should contemplate a whole different set of scenarios that can come into play.

So we're trying to just provide the flexibility knowing that there is a number of things that are still volatile. But in our guidance and you'll see us that we are acknowledging some of those things. We're preparing for those things and also, at the same time, making sure that we have the right flexibility to invest back in the business in order to drive the trial that we have and then fuel the opportunities that we are seeing with our brand growth system to expand back in our brands. So that's all reflected in the way we're kind of shaping the year ahead.

And thank you, everyone, for joining us. Operator, that concludes our Q&A session.

Thank you. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may disconnect your lines at this time. Thank you for your participation, and have a great day.