The Navigator Company, S.A. (NVG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. We welcome you to the Navigator Company Full Year 2023 Results Presentation. [Operator Instructions] I'll now hand the conference over to Ana, please go ahead.

Ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the Navigator Company conference call and webcast for the fourth quarter and 2023 full year results. Joining us today are the following directors: Antonio Redondo, Fernando Araujo, Nuno Santos, Joao Le, Dorival Almeida and Antonio Quirino Soares. As usual, we will start with a brief presentation and we will have Q&A session at the end. The presentation can be accessed through the links available on the website and questions may be addressed also through the webcast platform. Antonio will start with a comment on the main highlights of the year. I will now hand over to Antonio. Please.

Good afternoon and thank you for joining us today. We are happy to be here once again and share with you our 2023 results. As we will see in today's presentation, the resilience of Navigator's business model and our strong financial position enabled us to present the second best result in the company's history even under very adverse market conditions. I will start with Slide 4 for a global overview of the year. Navigator reached an EBITDA of EUR 502 million, what we believe are the strong results achieved in a year with a very volatile market condition. It should be recalled that the first half of the year was marked by the sharpest drop ever in pulp prices in such a short period of time, down from record high levels in 2022 with a downturn in demand, especially in Europe. Over the course of the first half, we also saw a slow and severe destocking of paper and packaging, which had accumulated along the distribution chain over the course of 2022. In the tissue business, with a shorter supply chain and so less tendency to accumulate stocks, performance remained considerably stronger benefiting also from the increased market share and positive synergies brought by the integration of the new tissue mill in Zaragoza. In this context, adjusting production to demand, fixed and variable cost management, commercial performance and actively adjusting the business mix were decisive in protecting margins and results. To highlight, also this year, we registered a strong value-added CapEx of EUR 197 million, of which 57% ESG-related aiming at both decarbonization targets, efficiency gains and business diversification. While keeping a strong financial position with a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio below 1. Even with the outflows of the tissue acquisition, the payment of EUR 200 million in dividends and the tax outflows owing to 2022 results. In the next slide, Slide 5, we can clearly see the resilience of Navigator business model. Business diversification mainly through tissue, operational flexibility between pulp and paper, market mix adaptation, production adjustment and an efficient commercial strategy made it possible to offset the international paper and packaging demand drop and reduction in pulp demand in Europe, with pulp sales up 26% and tissue sales up 49%, offsetting the 32% drop in paper sales. Now turning to Slide 6 with the main financial highlights. Turnover in 2023 stood at EUR 1,953 million, the second best result in the company's company, 11% up on average turnover for the past 5 years. The all-time record of EUR 2,465 million having been set in 2022. Annual net income reached EUR 275 million, 29% higher than the average for the past 5 years. If you turn please to Slide 7, we have an overview of the quarter evolution. The management of our business mix allows stable quarter results. In the fourth quarter, turnover stood at EUR 492 million, up 2% quarter-on-quarter. EBITDA reached EUR 125 million, up 1% quarter-on-quarter. Paper and Packaging sales up 17% quarter-on-quarter and pulp sales down 41% in the third quarter, mainly due to planned maintenance outages and, of course, integration into paper and tissue. My colleagues will give you more detail on the different businesses' performance. Fernando will start with the analysis on the EBITDA evolution. Fernando, please go ahead.

Thank you, Antonio. Turning to Slide 8. We can take a closer look at the main impacts on EBITDA on a year-on-year comparison. Despite the annual trend on the pulp and uncoated wood-free market prices and coated wood-free has been significantly more resilient than pulp, while tissue price performed better, up by 4% year-on-year. The cash costs also comparing well year-on-year with an average reduction of around 5% in pulp and paper business. A [ 15% to 20% ] drop comparing H2 versus -- H2 '23 versus H2 2022, where it was the peak. The total fixed costs dropped by 5% in 2023 despite the inclusion of the Tissue [indiscernible] unit in the second quarter. Considerable efforts have been made to contain costs with maintenance and [indiscernible] costs rising by less than 1%, well below inflation and global wage increase in particular at Navigator, where the average wage rise implemented in 2023 was 5.3%. In this context, Navigator achieved an EBITDA of EUR 502 million. Turning to Slide 9. We have quarterly EBITDA analysis versus last year. Compared with the same quarter last year, downward trend in market price is evident, particularly in pulp with a 40% drop in average price and with uncoated wood-free and tissue price more resilient. It's also evident, a significant cash cost positive evolution with a sharp drop in cost in all pulp and paper segments, a decrease between 15% to 20%. Nuno Santos will now comment on pulp and paper price evolution. Nuno, go ahead.

On Slide 11, we have pulp and paper price evolution. After first half of 2023 marked by a sharp fall in prices from historical highs, I remember all that peaks reached in Europe, $1,380 per ton in 2022 and $866,000 per ton in China in '22 as well, prices have started to drop since then. The second half of '23 saw a recovery in prices in China and Europe. Peaks in China reached the bottom in May, $475 per ton and in '23 at $653 per ton. In Europe, the minimum was reached in August at $800 per ton and recovered until December, starting -- standing at $1,008 per ton in December. The benchmark index for office paper in Europe averaged $1,206 in '23, a drop of only 0.8% year-on-year. Although the benchmark index closed the year at $1,092, down by 18% from the start of the year. Paper prices in Europe stabilized in the second half of '23. And to date, at historical high levels, also due to a historically high cost base. On Slide 12, we have an update on the pulp market. As I've just mentioned, the first half of '23 witnessed a significant very big price reduction in pulp, down from the all-time highs of '22. This was driven mainly by; first, the downturn in global demand, particularly in Europe; second, the rising stocks along the supply chain in latter '22 and early '23; third, the easing of the logistical constraints experienced during '22. And finally, the new capacity in Latin America for short fiber. In Chile, 9.6 million tons were added which started up in March '23 and in Uruguay, 2.1 million tons that started up in May '23. The first 6 months of the year ended with residual growth in demand for hardwood, leveraged by China, which grew 21% but offset in Europe, which reduced demand by 21% due to weak demand for end uses. In the second half, Chinese demand for hardwood continue to perform well. In fact, it even increased leading year-on-year growth of 35% in hardwood and 33% in eucalyptus hardwood in the second half versus the first half of only 21% for hardwood and 14% for eucalyptus pulp. As a result, global demand for hardwood kept pace with a positive trend in the second half, ending with 88% hardwood -- increase in -- by 8% in hardwood and by 6.5% in eucalyptus pulp in '23. Stocks at manufacturers and ports were also high in the first half, then reduced to normalized levels in the second half and were below average of the last 5 years by the end of the year. Comparing second half levels with the one in the first half, stocks fell 7% at manufacturers and 6% at ports, with stocks at ports dropping by 11% in China and 35% in Europe. Our self, our pulp sales reached 462,000 tons, an increase of 80% year-on-year. Navigator's operational flexibility and product quality enabled us to produce more pulp and to place this additional output in geographical regions where demand was more robust in '23. Antonio Quirino will now give some market context on the paper side.

Thank you, Nuno. If we please move on to Slide 13, we have summarized the main developments of uncoated wood-free papers. In a global context of sharply falling currently -- current demand for printing and writing papers, which declined by 11% year-on-year. Uncoated wood-free papers remains the most resilient product in view of its versatile uses, with a reduction of [indiscernible]. It compares with coated wood-free papers with a drop of [ 17% ] and the demand for paper produced from mechanical pulp, which dropped by less than [ 18% ] year-on-year. In Europe, in particular, apparent demand for uncoated wood-free papers was down by 20%, although it remained also the most resilient [indiscernible] in the cutsize segment in principle, more vulnerable to the trend of digitalization, presenting better performance than the others. In fact, cutsize outperformed portfolio by 7 percentage points, in reels by 4 percentage points. It should also be noted that in Europe between '13 and '23, in 10 years, apparent demand for uncoated wood-free paper, grew by an average of 4.7% a year, a clearly better trend than any of the other segments in the printing and writing paper channel. Moving to the U.S. demand declined more slowly than in Europe in '23, down by 14%. Apparent uncoated wood-free consumption in other world regions dropped by 2%, with China presenting growth of 6% in uncoated wood-free consumption by November when compared to year-to-date November 2022. As Antonio mentioned, '23 is marked by a slower-than-expected destocking and restocking. But by the end of the third quarter, we already saw an improvement, which has continued consistently in the last quarter to-date. In this context, Navigator was able to maintain its high market share, improving by 1.5 percentage points. Navigator succeeded in maintaining focus on the own new brands, representing 80% of volumes, which is a record high level for Navigator and premium products overall represented 57% of volumes that compares to historical average of 53%. The operating rates in the industry have fallen sharply in print. Navigator has also adjusted the pace of production, although it maintained an average operation rate of 78% which compares with 71% of our competitors in Europe. As already mentioned by Nuno, the paper industry, mainly by holding paper price, working on cash costs, also in due to bettering the cycle, managing to protect margins. To be noted that the price increase announced for December for Europe is now fully implemented with cutsize and reels up by around 5% and folding sheets, up by 6%. And also, we have just announced last Friday to our customers new increases for the end of Q1 onwards in Europe and overseas markets. Looking at '23, the paper total turnover continues still at a historical high level looking back to the history. Moving now to Slide 14, please, we have summarized the main developments in packaging. In the packaging business, [ 23% ] was also marked by a significant overstocking throughout the supply chain. Additionally, consumption of bags, one of Navigator's main segment fell by 40% after the introduction of mandatory in-store charges for consumers. Nonetheless, the packaging business continues to progress with the growing customer base, with more than 230 active customers in 30 countries since starting up in 2021 and recognition of the quality of our products based on eucalyptus globulus fiber and consequently, on our gKRAFT brand. Navigator has based its offering of packaging papers on 3 gKRAFT micro segments. The segment of bag, segment of flex and box, which is subdivided into 12 segments for different applications. Navigator worked over the course of '23 on development -- of developing new product ranges aimed at the food industry and also a variety of consumer products. These are currently still being tested with customers and launched on the market in a large-scale operation aimed at the new customers supported by the conduction of more than 220 market trials in 2023. Developments included the creation of new product ranges, most significantly for innovative 100% eucalyptus-based product, with a total of 31 new grades of packaging. As part of the diversification of packaging business, the project for integrated production of eucalyptus-based molded products designed to substitute single-use plastic packaging in the food service and food beverage market continues to progress and the production is planned to start up in the second half of 2024 under the gKRAFT Bioshield brand. Finally, the new industrial facility will have production capacity for approximately 100 million units a year, making it one of the largest in Europe and the first integrated site in Southern Europe, moving into a fast-growing, high potential market. Operations will start with 4 products for the food sector and the new mill offers production flexibility and scalability in order to exploit the various opportunities opening up for substituting plastics. Nuno will now comment on tissues.

Thank you, Antonio. Looking into tissue performance on Slide 15. As Antonio mentioned, Tissues segment continues to perform well, driven by the integration of Tissue [indiscernible] with better-than-expected synergies and significant price resilience. Tissue business took a front seat in '23 with the acquisition of a production unit in Zaragoza, Spain. The integration of this new mill is part of Navigator's ambitions -- ambitious plan for growth and diversification and has reinforced its strategic positioning in tissue market, where in just 8 years, it has established itself as the second largest player in Iberia, with total annual production capacity of 165,000 tons and annual converting capacity of 180,000 tons. In '23, issue sales proved significantly resilient and there was sustained growth in demand for Navigator's finished products. Also, in tissue business the focus on innovation, differentiated products has enabled Navigator to strengthen its relationship with customers, the sales is more distinct -- the sales in more distinctive products continue to set new records in '23 and were up by 64% year-on-year. Navigator owned brands represented 24% of total sales which grew 25% in '22. Fernando will now comment on our financial position.

On Slide 16, the debt maturity profile. Group's debt profile continues to be conservative. Navigator has well balanced debt maturity, with 95% of total debt issued on a fixed rate basis, enable us to maintain low financing costs in a scenario of sharp revising interest rates. Also worth notice that the company has a solid balance sheet of close to EUR [ 230 million ] of liquidity, both as long term and new credit lines and cash on hand. In December, Navigator signed a long-term financing agreement with the European Investment Bank of EUR 150 million, which can be drawn in 3 tranches, with maturities of up to 12 years. This green finance is provided as part of the REPowerEU plan designed to boost finance for greener energy and to support the European Union's autonomy and ability to compete. As a result, average debt maturity remains appropriate with balanced maturities and 46% of total debt tied to sustainability. On Slide 17, we have the net debt and financial EBITDA [indiscernible]. Net debt versus EBITDA ratio stands below one line item, even with the impact of the Tissue acquisition in the first quarter, EUR 200 million of dividend payment in the second quarter and the amount of CapEx expense before. And the amount in corporate income tax payments versus 2022, reflecting exceptional level of profits in the prior year, confirming our financial strength, return on capital employed and in term of equity ratio is at 21%, above last 5 years' average. Dorival will briefly comment on CapEx.

Thank you, Fernando. In2023 the level of value-added CapEx reached EUR 187 million. CapEx projects include a new high-efficiency recovery boiler in Setbal, a new bleaching tower and washing presses in Aveiro which are both underway. And we will keep to -- and will help to accelerate the group's decarbonization plan. As well as the investment in the wastewater treatment plant in Setubal, the new wood yard in Figueira da Foz and ash treatment for the Aveiro recovery boiler. As already mentioned in the last quarter, over the next 2 years, Navigator will continue with a high level of value add in order to anticipate our decarbonization targets, improve the environmental performance of our sites and implement our strategy for developing our factories, taking advantage of the new next generation pumps that is mandatory to be completed by the end of 2025. We also have invested in projects to improve business diversification and customer service. As for example, the new, finished goods warehouse in Navigator, [indiscernible] the molded pulp plant and the packaging products. For [indiscernible] investments, there is an incentive rate of around 40%. The Navigator will receive over EUR 100 million grant, EUR 21 million already received in 2023. To conclude, these investments embrace our sustainability commitment but also our innovation and diversification efforts to increase efficiency, improve and sustain our results. Joao Le will give some color on this impact in our sustainability program.

Thank you, Dorival. Let's please go to Slide 18. Navigator is fully committed with sustainability. In this slide, we will highlight some of our 2023 numbers and initiatives. My colleagues mentioned through the presentation a few actions taken this period that demonstrate our continued work in all sustainability dimensions. Dorival just mentioned the value added CapEx level delivered in 2023, have reached EUR 106 million, which represents 57%, was dedicated not only to environmental or social and government business transformation and in innovation and diversification investments. One of our ambitious goal is accelerating towards decarbonization. Our investments have enabled -- navigated to bring forward by 3 years its interim target for direct emissions. And we expect to achieve by the end of 2026, the goals initially set for 2029 in its road map for decarbonization of its industrial operations by 2035. This means that by 2026, Navigator will be able to achieve a level representing less than half of the emissions recorded in 2018. It should, nonetheless, be noted that in 2023 emissions were already 41% down from 2018 levels. 2023 Navigator's initiative included signing up to the United Nations Global Compact and taking part in the Business & Human Rights Accelerator program. In signing up to the 10 principles of the United Relations Global Compact, the company is furthering its efforts to promote responsible business conduct and participation in the Business & Human Rights Accelerator program represents an opportunity to step up efforts to identify, prevent, eliminate negative impacts along the value chain, whilst enabling it to communicate to -- the progress it makes and to collaborate with international efforts to create value and momentum in the future. I will now hand over to Antonio.

Thank you, Joao. Let's turn to Slide 19, please, with the wrap up. As you can see, we recorded again what we believe are solid results despite this year's market volatility. [indiscernible] we registered a consistent demand recovery on both paper and packaging and a significant drop on cash costs from the peak in H2 2022. We continue to proceed with our diversification plan. Navigator Tissue [indiscernible] integration has been successful with growing sales and better-than-expected synergy results. And we kept innovating in packaging with ongoing development projects of new types of paper applications and proceeding as planned with the molded pulp projects. We continue to demonstrate the consistency of our conservative financial policies while keeping our sustainability and investment commitments. The Board of Directors will propose to the General Assembly -- next slide, the distribution of EUR 150 million dividend. Let's turn to Slide 21 with a glance of the new business opportunities. Going forward, our sound financial position allow us to consider opportunities for debottlenecking in our core business, investing in efficiency and innovation but also look for new growth opportunities. With a medium-term perspective, we are looking into renewable energy and efficiency opportunities, namely new photovoltaic power capacity, which will bring Navigator's total capacity up to between 46 and 53 megawatts peak, making Navigator the #1 player in solar photovoltaic-rated capacity for in-house consumption [indiscernible]. We're also looking into the possibility of investing in energy storage, above all, to provide regulation reserve system services. There is the possibility of investing in up to 3 batteries of 10 megawatts of 2 hours each in the near future. In tissue, the tissue business has shown resilience and our current position allows us to seek new opportunities for inorganic growth. In packaging, in the packaging business, where a consolidated presence in the international market is still being built. We continue to look for growth opportunities through our internal R&D program to scale up the business, targeting value-add segments. In the long term view, I'd like to call your attention to our plans and discussions in biofuels. In terms of biofuels, new projects are being assessed in the production of second-generation bioethanol using eucalyptus bark as raw material and introducing in producing kraft biomethanol through the recovery and purification of by-product biomethanol already produced at our pulp mills for use as a fuel or in the chemical industry. In e-fuels, investment projects are continuously being assessed for production of e-methanol and e-jetfuel. These are 2 distinct projects with different technologies and potential partners. In both cases, an essential component is biogenic CO2, which is a byproduct in our pulp production process. In brief, these are processes for synthetizing sustainable hydrocarbons, e-methanol and e-kerosene from biogenic CO2 and green H2 obtained from water electrolysis with renewable energy. These sustainable hydrocarbons, neutral in carbon emissions will be in high demand in the coming years for both the shipping and/or the aviation sectors where electrification is hardly an option. In Mozambique, we keep our projects since the MOUs signed in 2018, the work with the Mozambican government has continued focusing on Phase 1 export of wood chips. The Port of [indiscernible] construction will be a major step in one of the conditions present for development of the project. And finally, on biomaterials, the new eucalyptus globulus byproducts from our R&D program are being developed with a wide range of applications such as hygiene and personal care, cosmetics, nutraceutical, food additives and health sector. I will wrap up with a few words on the outlook on Slide 23. The current geopolitical tensions and electoral super cycle increases volatility and reduces visibility. That said, into Q1 '24, Pulp business is expected to continue to improve as already observed, particularly during the second half of last year, although -- and the uncertainty is not known in what extent this recovery cycle is sustained through whole 2024. The new capacity entry, 2.6 million tons per year will have an impact difficult to forecast and anticipate. The continued demand growth in the Chinese market and of both new printing and writing mills and tissue mills may have a positive impact. As well as the decrease in paper consumption in the Western world, both in Europe and the state that will reduce the amount and quality of paper waste available that might lead to increased demand for virgin fiber in packaging and other grades that traditionally use recycled fibers. In the Paper segment, 2024 began with solid order books. A positive trend in demand is expected for at least Q1. Although the economic slowdown in Europe, paper prices could benefit for a more balanced market structure, with improvement in demand after the reduction of supply, that combined with a strong pressure on costs is so far resulting in a reversal of the fall of paper prices we saw in Europe and then even in some international markets during the most part of 2023. In effect, temporary and definitive reduction in capacity has been announced in the paper sector in Europe in 2023 and in 2024. In those 2 years, Europe has lost almost 400,000 tons of annual uncoated wood-free capacity. Some manufacturers have announced the permanent closures of operations, while others have announced the conversion of capacity into packaging grades. Highlight that Navigator just announced another price increase for all uncoated wood-free papers by up to 5% in Europe, effective with all the shipping from March 25 onwards. The company will also increase uncoated wood-free paper prices outside Europe for all orders already in March. The recovery in demand is visible in the global market and this also contributes, of course, to these packages. In the tissue segment, this demand is expected to grow by 1.7% in Europe and by over 2% worldwide. The group continues to leverage synergies driven by business growth, in particular with the acquisition of Navigator Tissue [indiscernible], business diversification to tissue, operational flexibility between paper and pulp, market mix adequacy, a reduction and adjustment and efficient commercial strategy, combined with rigorous programs to control costs, as well as the company's strong financial position have enabled us to deliver consistently strong and stable results in changing market context. We are confident that all these factors will continue to point to the resilience of Navigator's business model. Thank you.

Thank you, Antonio. This ends our presentation. We are now open for Q&A session.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, we will now begin the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] And our first question comes from the line of Enrique Parrondo from JB Capital.

I have 3, if I may. The first one would be on price increases announced till date. You comment that December increase has been fully implemented but the A4 B-copy index in Europe is failing to reflect this, right? So could you help us understand from which actual price levels were increasingly departing and where the prices currently stand? Second one would be on profitability expectations for 2025, sorry, 2024, considering such price increases and taking maybe fourth quarter as a base case for costs, are such profitability levels of around the 25% EBITDA margin, a good proxy for the picture, for this year. And final one on capital allocation. I believe that the announced dividends fell short of expectations. And I assume that you want to be conservative in light of the CapEx cycle that you commented. But even still, your balance sheet looks quite healthy. So my question would be, are you seeing any growth opportunities in the market, maybe in tissue to which you'd rather target these funds?

I must say that the line was awful. And I'm going to repeat the 3 questions, just to make sure that we fully understand them. I understood the first question is about our price increases to date and how do we compare this with the peaks evolution?

Yes, that's correct. And maybe some guidance on where actually price is done.

Okay? Your second question, I think, is about profitability in 2024 and you would love to give us -- you'd loves us to give you a guidance of EBITDA margin around 25%.

That's right. Yes. And that could be a proxy considering the exit levels from 2023.

And your last question is about capital allocation. And if we see further -- this actually was the one that was most difficult to understand but I think it's about capital allocation and if we see further opportunities to grow in tissue.

That's correct. Yes. So basically, considering that the dividend is lower and you're facing a high CapEx cycle. But even still your balance sheet looks healthy. So maybe are you seeing anywhere -- any opportunities in the market to target these funds that you will not be distributing to shareholders.

Okay. I will give first comments for your 3 questions and I will ask my colleagues to complement. I will start with the second one, which is easiest to answer. By obvious reasons, we cannot give any guidance about what will be our profitability. You have seen in the presentation, in the last 6 years from 2018 to 2022, our EBITDA margin was in average 24% and last year was 26%. We mentioned that we believe we are operating, although we have significant decrease, our cash costs from the peak by the end of last year in the region of 15% to 20% in the 3 different segments. So uncoated wood-free and packaging, tissue and pulp -- so this decrease of 15% to 20%. We are still operating with very high costs comparing to what we had pre-COVID. And of course, we are, at the same time, doing our very best to make sure that we translate that into price increases but we cannot give you further comments on this. Regarding price increases to date, -- and what I can comment is the following. We have announced a price increase that was, if I'm not mistaken, 4% to 6% in December. We have actually in Europe, we have actually increased 5% to 6% from -- if we compare our February prices, our actual prices with our November prices, they have increased 5% to 6% and does not always translates into peaks. I will pass to Antonio Quirino that will explain you a bit technicality, how we believe peaks is constructed and why our price increase does not fully translate into peak. Let's not forget that we only have 24% of market share in Europe, so we don't make the peaks ourselves alone.

You're right. So to comment on that, that typically lower peaks. The second one [indiscernible] or index and it's non-weighted index by market share. So 1 data point is 1 data point and we use the same on the index. So that's one thing. But that the second point, typically, these indexes, they will move the 10% range and the bottom 10% range, so that they exclude outliers. And the third comment is that is typically depending on the timing but there is typically a lag between price moves and the index as well. So but this is as far as we can comment about the index, which is not calculated obviously on us. So just to recap, the actual prices that Antonio already mentioned that as we actually done in the European market, comparing preannouncement with current prices, transactional prices compared to November. In February it's 5% on cutsize and those and 6% on the [indiscernible] that we have announced for late March another wave of price increase.

Thank you, Antonio and quickly on capital allocation and remembering what we have shown on Slide 21. So definitely, tissue is an area where we have been signaling in our past calls that we want to keep on growing. I think we have also mentioned that we are continuously looking to opportunities. I think we have, of course, been encouraged as well by the successful integration of [indiscernible] into our present tissue business. So the most obvious evolution is in the near future to find another target that eventually, we will be able to conclude. I also mentioned in the past that depending on the type of target, which is a pure converter, if it is a converter with a paper capacity, we can look after that to further development of tissue -- paper tissue production in our -- in one of our mills. This, I'll say, is for the most immediate and sizable opportunity that we will have. On top of this, we have also mentioned that we want to keep on investing in our renewable energy. So we have programs to keep growing our biomass production. Actually, within the unit generation funds, we will be able to launch a new biomass plant, developing further solar to increase our solar PV capacity and also developing batteries to supply services to the grid. At the same time, we have also mentioned and we are committed to deliver, that in the next few years, we will keep on pushing our existing 2 smallest paper machines to being further developed into packaging and this will allow us to have a packaging capacity in excess of 200,000 tons. So those, I think, are what we can see in the near future. More long term, as I mentioned before, are biofuels, e-fuels, Mozambique and biomaterials. And I will ask my colleagues this, someone who wants to add more on this?

Our next question comes from the line of [ Jose Antonio Soares from Caixa Bank ].

Can you hear me?

Sorry, we are not listening at all.

Can you hear me?

No. Hello?

Can you hear me now?

A bit better, yes. Thank you.

Perfect. I also have 3, if I may. First of all, will they -- if you could give us some update regarding the rates or prices. So more or less, I want to understand more or less what are the [indiscernible] flavors today? Are they still falling? Or have they fallen like already, so do you think that the levels will keep falling or do we see some capacity utilization? Then also regarding your capacity utilization rate, you were talking that you were working at an 85% in the fourth quarter. What levers more or less are you working right now in the first 2 months of 2024. Now a little bit more on how we're see our ability. And also, if I may, this I mentioned on tissue prices that have been falling throughout the year, explain a little bit why this -- why have we seen this trend and what should we expect for 2024 in terms of prices for tissue.

Okay. Again, for the sake of clarity, I'm going to repeat the question, Jose. Please let me know if they will fully understand the question by us. Your first question, I think, was about an update on imports of uncoated wood-free.

Yes, the [indiscernible] of imports for [indiscernible] right now in the first quarter. Yes.

Okay. The second question is about our present capacity utilization rate in uncoated wood-free?

In the first quarter, capacity utilization rate. Right. Yes.

And your last question is, how do we see tissue prices developing during 2024?

Correct.

Okay. I'm going to give some comments on those questions, at least on question 1 and question 3 and I'll ask my colleagues to complement question 1 and to give you some answers on question 2 and then, of course, question 3. Imports and I will start with imports of wood free. I also can share the imports in tissue, if you want but in uncoated wood-free. Imports in uncoated wood-free in 2023, we have for the majority of the markets already, for majority of the European markets already data until end of December. In a few markets, we have data until end of November and December, for sure didn't change much the trends when we have [indiscernible] until end of November. But imports in 2023 in Europe. So it was from outside Europe into Europe have been around 500,000 tons. This means it's the second lowest year of the last 6 years. So as we have signaling -- have been signaling all over 2022 in our calls, we were not seeing import as a whole increasing. And it seems that it has been the second year with the lowest level of imports for the last 6 years. Of course, as we also mentioned, imports from Asia increased but imports from outside Asia decreased in order to compensate that. As also -- we have also mentioned, imports are mainly cutsize. About 75% is cutsize and let's not forget that cutsize imports from Asia are typically without FSC or PSC certification and without, if you will, ESG credentials that the European customers demand. Hence, they are positioned in the low end of the capsize spectrum in Europe. Antonio, don't want to add something?

Yes, around that there was a decline this year, as we mentioned, on Navigator total imports. The single source that increased this [indiscernible] on the management as well. And the last that we have, which is December does not include any effect basically on the Red Sea situation. So it is, one can argue that it is possible to have an impact going forward but there is no date available, still these [indiscernible] before the impact of -- from the Red Sea. If you look on the month of December only, you see that there was already a monthly decline of around 16% compared to the average of -- if you look at 2023 as a whole, take an average of imports on monthly period and you see December, which, again, as we saw in the rest, prices, mostly, it's already a slow month. But Brazil, there was a reduction of 25% for Brazilian imports, from North America there was a very significant reduction as well and from Russia, it is from mostly nonexisting papers from Russia and European markets, as we speak.

Okay. Very good. So on the second question of capacity conversion, right, I'd like Dorival to make a comment and then probably I'll.

In fact in terms of the operating rate, we're managing our assets according to the market needs as we did in the previous year. And, therefore, we, for example, adjust our operating rate according to the market and to the orders that we have.

Probably we can just add the following. We have been learning in the last 14, 15 months how to adjust our mills and to work with different capacity rates. We can tell you that we expect to have in Q1 a higher operating rate than we had in Q4 last year and, of course, a higher operating rate that we had throughout 2023. And having already some mills working at full capacity, not necessarily through all the quarter but having some of those already working at full capacity. But I think the main point is that our teams have been learning how to operate the mills with some variable operating rate, contrary to what has been our traditional model of operation. Regarding tissue prices, I'll make an introductory comment and I'll ask Nuno to complement, a couple of comments. In tissue, like in uncoated wood-free, we are operating at higher costs than before. Again, a decrease vis-a-vis the peak but higher costs than before. In uncoated wood-free, we have been increasing prices already twice, both in Europe and outside Europe, including the announcement that we have made last Friday to our customers. So I think we can expect as well that tissue prices will go up. I can share with you the comment from a trader, a pulp trade that we have just got a few minutes before starting this call. And he was mentioning that he had some announcements of pulp -- of a new pulp increase from Brazil. We don't know if they are true or not true but it was comment a couple of minutes ago that there is this rumor in the marketplace. And of course, if this materializes, I think there is no other option than to tissue -- to increase prices in the very near future.

Yes, I think, I mean, I don't think I can add much, what you are saying, Antonio. Unfortunately, we do not have a crystal ball. But with these tissue works that are competitive environment on one side and indeed also follow many input costs, often, as Antonio mentioned, pulp prices have been going up this year again. So we do expect that there is a high profitability that tissue prices will continue to go up. Regarding the price reduction in 2023, as you mentioned, yes, they have come down but our margins have not decreased, I'd put it this way. So we have been operating under comfortable, prudent margins in the tissue business and despite there is, over that price reduction last year. But going forward, as we mentioned, as Antonio stressed, we expect prices to go up and they have started to go up already, especially in mother reels but also in finished goods.

The next question comes from the line of Antonio Females from AS independent Research.

So most of them were already answered. Nevertheless, regarding capacity utilization, I don't know if you can provide a little bit more color on it because that was a big surprise last year, I guess, at least from my side. So I don't know if you can provide more color on it, what kind of capacity utilization should we expect for the current year? That is the first question. And second question, if you can provide some color in terms of wood prices. I don't know if we should expect lower prices in wood in 2024 versus last year? Or it will be just blended, less imports, that will help.

Okay. I don't think we can give much more precise guidance for Q1 capacity than the one we have just given to you. And again and summarizing, we expect to operate in Q1 at a higher operating rate than Q4 last year, at least slightly higher than Q4 last year, not yet all mills at 100%. That said, already some paper machines already at 100%. So we are focused on 2 things. One, you might appreciate that it's not easy to accommodate variable operating rates in a large mill of our size. So we are learning how to operate flexibly with variable operating rates, as Dorival said, sometimes from one week to the other. And again, some mills already operating at 100% capacity. Second, in between price and volume, like we did in 2023, we will choose price. So I think with the present situation of the uncertainty on all our cost base and operating from a higher cost than before, in between volume and price, we will choose to protect our margins. Regarding wood, I'll ask Joao to complement and a couple of generic comments. Obviously, we are going to work on the mix, trying to use as much as possible Portuguese wood, Iberian wood and the balance being with the extra Iberian wood. I don't expect wood in Portugal to increase nor to decrease, I believe wood would be relatively stable. Any variations up or downwards will probably be most dependent on logistics than on wood itself, is harder to anticipate price evolution in wood from outside Iberia. But if I would bet, I will probably bet that wood outside Iberia will go more likely down than up. But let's not forget that in China, a significant amount of pulp capacity, chemical pulp capacity will start this year. Quoting by memory, not far from 2 million tons of chemical pulp capacity. The large majority, not to say all, is going to operate with imported wood. And wood is a scarce raw material, as we mentioned in previous discussions. So I don't think we can give much more details on this but Joao, please be free to add to anything you like.

Antonio, you mentioned the big picture and I am subscribe it. We don't expect any major changes in terms of pricing, mainly in extra Iberian wood. In fact, we expect to have a less wood mix, more favorable with less extra Iberian wood in our pulp mills. That's a movement that we -- that came from a decision that we took last year. So we are trying to maximize our own wood and our wood from local markets in Portugal. And, of course, also in the second level of relevance, we expect to have some more wood from Spain, in general, not only from Galicia, but in general, from North and South Spain. So we are looking at this with some expectation that prices may stabilize in Iberia. And let's wait for what we have in this -- mostly in the second quarter in the extra Iberian wood.

[Operator Instructions] And our next question comes from the line of Cole Hathorn from Jefferies.

The first one is around the restocking cycle of some of the graphic paper distributors, just like some color on where do you see inventory levels for some of those distributors and could they restock and pull some more demand for office paper? And then secondly, going back to, not necessarily wood costs but understanding how the cost curve has shifted for Navigator and the wider industry. I mean you're an integrated player, you're lower down on the cost curve. You use a lot of Iberian wood. But if you look at across Europe, you've got the Nordic wood costs that have risen including Central Eastern Europe, the cost curve seems to have steepened. How do you see that cost curve developing from here? And where is Navigator's position on that cost curve?

Okay. Just to make sure we fully understood. Your first question is about restocking cycle distribution -- distributor, sorry, in uncoated wood-free and you are specifically cutsize, if I understand correctly.

Yes.

And then your second question is about how we believe the cost curve has shift, namely in Europe and I think you are referring mainly to pulp.

I'm actually, well, hope that your integrated fine paper operations.

Okay. I will give some light and my colleagues will complement those answers. Regarding the restocking. I don't think our distributors are fully restocked. I think they are at a normal level of stock for what is the present level of stock. In cutsize, I am quoting by memory, their stock level tends to be somewhere in between 3 weeks and then it's short of 4 weeks. I believe they today are not -- they're -- in cutsize, I mean, I ensure you, it might be more around 50 days. I don't think they are more stocked than this. And of course, they are probably, at least some of them and in some countries, this is true for -- looks like for U.K., this is true for the south of Europe, namely Greece and Italy and some Southern Eastern part of Europe -- from Europe, from the former Eastern European area of Europe and eventually from the Benelux. Those countries have been typically importing paper from Asia. And now with the difficulties in the [indiscernible] and the lengthy travels time and, of course, the increased costs, I believe that some of these are probably a bit understocked because of the delay in deliveries of cutsize from Asia. Antonio, do you want to add something?

Oh, you said most of it. I have -- only have a couple of information. We have a couple of informations, more quantitative from industry sources and indexes. Again we have qualitative conversations, of course, with customers. And the picture is pretty much what Antonio mentioned. So normal situation, in some areas more exposed to imports, which are now with a longer lead time to supply and costly as well for customers. In some areas, you might have some lower-than-normal stock position. And this applies both, this comment applies both geographical, so holding them in cutsize, although the import dependence comment is more related [indiscernible] all you'll see is some players with lower than normal stocks bottom.

Regarding your pressure for the cost curve is a bit probably harder to answer. And so what is our perception based on the data that we have available? The wood cost increase, which is the dominant cost in pulp and being the dominant cost in pulp is a very important cost impactor. The wood increase following the barbarian Russian evasion of Ukraine has led the wood costs to significantly increase in Central and Eastern Europe, very significantly more than the cost has increased, in [indiscernible] Spain. And probably with a big impact on both our hardwood and softwood. When we speak about Scandinavia, our educated guess is that they also have a significant impact, probably one country more than the other. And this impact was larger in hardwood than in softwood. Joao, do you want to add something?

No, I think it's -- as you mentioned and I will also slightly stress that right now, it's very difficult to predict what will happen because of those, all of those conflicts. And for us, I think, it's a little bit difficult to stand if there might be any other changes in the cost curve. Right now, it's not a -- there's not a clear vision of those -- all of those conflicts and I wouldn't say much more than that.

So more likely than not, based on this limited view, more likely than not, our cost competitiveness gap has increased vis-a-vis the Central European producers.

And then if you just allow me 1 follow-up. I'm just trying to understand how lower gas or energy prices might impact Navigator and your business? I imagine that you're probably going to get some benefits in your tissue plants but then it'll also probably flattened a bit of the wider industry graphic paper cost curve. So I'm just wondering how kind of lower energy and gas prices might impact Navigator in 2024.

An introduction, I'll ask Nuno, to complement, an introduction. Your assumption is right but let's not forget that even at today's levels of energy and electricity, if you will and gas, the cost base is significantly higher than what it was pre-COVID. It's, of course, lower than the peak in 2022 but significantly higher both for gas and for electricity than it was before, easily for gas, easily 30% above. So we are still being much affected by the cost of energy. Nuno.

So I just wanted to remind you that we have -- we do have -- we sell power, electricity, as you know, in the Portuguese market. And -- but still, we are still a net buyer of energy. But given our position, where we have a lot of energy assets that sell into the market, we do have a pretty balanced and robust naturally hedged position on energy. So overall, our, let's say, competitive position in energy is good. Price reduction, if we are a net buyer, at the end of the day, will benefit us. And we will see -- we don't know exactly what will happen. I think you were implicitly alluding to the fact that if energy prices go down, paper prices will also go down. Let's see exactly what will happen. Some of the industry players have already had taken some hedging positions already. So also pulp is increasing significantly. So it's actually quite difficult to predict what is going to happen on the paper prices and what -- how will energy price variations will be translated in paper prices. But overall, we feel comfortable with our energy position at the moment.

And our last question comes from the line of Enrique Parrondo from JB Capital.

Just one follow-up on the pricing question from before. I assume that maybe if we are seeing that the index in Europe is not reflecting the increases. Maybe it's because your peers are not pushing for such increases as you are and maybe as we typically see in the pulp segment. So how do you think that, that should bode in terms of market share and volumes into this year? Could -- would other peers offering lower prices take away some of your volumes? Is that the right way of thinking?

I will give an introduction and Quirino will help. And I understand your comments but I have difficulties to follow your comment based on the explanation that Quirino gave in the way that peak is developed and constructed. Again, today, a significant number of our competitors are actually nonintegrated. So they are buying pulp in the marketplace and pulp has been going up and lately is going up again soon. So I see difficulties for them to be more competitive than we are. I think what we are seeing is the fact that the model, the way it peaks is constructed, does not fully translate what is our price increases. Quirino?

Sure. We cannot comment, of course, on competitors' price position. We do have some data to measure, of course, market share and it's quite granular. So we see every week our order intake and the industry our intake. And we see that we are actually keeping or even increasing slightly our share and so we have [indiscernible] off on that.

This ends our session. Thank you all for your time. As always, we are available for any additional clarifications for usual contact. Have a great evening. You may disconnect.