The Procter & Gamble Company ($PG)

P&G would like to remind you that today's discussion will include a number of forward-looking statements. If you will refer to P&G's most recent 10-K, 10-Q and 8-K reports, you will see a discussion of factors that could cause the company's actual results to differ materially from these projections. Additionally, the company has posted on its Investor Relations website, www.pginvestor.com, a full reconciliation of non-GAAP and other financial measures.

Well, good morning, everybody, and welcome back to day 2 of Deutsche Bank's Annual Global Consumer Conference. Happy to have you all here. Especially happy to have Procter & Gamble back to the conference, Chief Financial Officer, Andre Schulten, and Head of Investor Relations, John Chevalier. For today's session, P&G, led by Andre, will lead us through a presentation for about 25 minutes, and then we should have the balance of time about 15 minutes or so for Q&A that will follow the presentation. . And with that, I'm going to hand it over to Andre.

Thank you, Steve. Good morning, everyone. All right. So let's start with a review of results through the first 3 quarters of the fiscal and then a few words on strategy. I'll share some examples of the near-term interventions that we are making to accelerate growth before we get into the Q&A that Steve mentioned. Starting with results. We delivered 2% organic sales growth through the third quarter against the backdrop of softer consumer markets, and a dynamic geopolitical landscape. Focus markets are up 1%. Enterprise markets are up 4%. Growth has been broad-based across categories, 9 out of 10 categories growing or holding organic sales and 7 of 7 regions holding or growing organic sales. Fiscal year-to-date, 24 of our top 50 category country combinations grew or held share. And in the January to March quarter, 26 of our 50 category country combinations grew or held share. Global aggregate value share past 3 and past 6 months is now in line with prior year. On the bottom line, core EPS was up 2%, following the top line and reflecting our commitment to prioritize full investment in the business while managing the impacts of the volatile external environment. We have averaged roughly $2 billion of productivity savings annually across cost of goods sold and SG&A over the past decade helping to fund consistent reinvestment back into the business, and helping us to mitigate cost challenges. Despite the volatile environment and the more recent external cost pressures from the Middle East conflict, in our third quarter earnings release, we maintained fiscal year 2026 guidance ranges across organic sales, core EPS and adjusted free cash flow productivity. As a reminder, our outlook included a headwind of approximately $150 million after tax for fiscal year 2026 from a combination of commodity-linked cost inflation, feedstock exposures and logistics disruptions resulting from the conflict in the Middle East. Almost all of these costs will be in our fiscal fourth quarter. As we close the fiscal year, we are monitoring the U.S. consumer trends, which have been softening, as you have seen in publicly available data and incremental short-term cost impacts. Looking forward, we have provided perspective on the annualized growth impact of sustained elevated Brent crude oil prices at $100 a barrel. This cost impact could be up to $1.3 billion before tax, pre-mitigation. We intend to maintain a disciplined approach to investing in our business. In light of the current macroeconomic backdrop, we continue to focus on sustainable investments in the business to deliver sequential progress and return to algorithm over time. At this conference 1 year ago, Shailesh and I announced a 2-year noncore restructuring program. In the volatile world we are in, I am glad we already began the hard work to create opportunities for us to invest in growth and manage the uncertainty while paving the way to move our organization forward to embrace a more nimble approach to running our 10 categories enabled by more holistic roles and technologies. Recall, our goal was to better focus the portfolio and to streamline our operations and the organization. We are on track to deliver against our commitments and continue to estimate the total noncore cost of this program to be in the range of $1 billion to $1.6 billion before tax. The portfolio choices include choices of brands at the country category level and even product form level, which may include some brand divestitures. These include, but are not limited to, go-to-market changes in Bangladesh and Pakistan and streamlining of the portfolio in Laundry, Baby Care, Fem Care, Oral Care and Grooming. These choices allow us to focus on more profitable segments of our business. The brand and product form discontinuations have been a 30 to 50 basis point headwind to organic sales growth, and this impact will continue throughout next fiscal year. As an example, the Asia, Middle East, Africa region, organic sales growth in the third quarter would have been 3.5% without the portfolio choices versus the 1.5% with those impacts included in the reported numbers. These portfolio moves enable us to make related interventions in the supply chain, rightsizing and right-locating production to drive efficiencies, faster innovation, cost reduction and even more reliable and resilient supply. For example, we have shifted sourcing of Baby and Fem Care in Saudi and the Philippines to improve operational and logistic efficiency. Automation, including adoption of touchless operations is playing an important added role in delivering cost improvements across the supply chain. Each business unit is implementing organizational design changes to make their operations more effective. We see more opportunities to make world broader and teams smaller, making work more fulfilling, faster and more efficient, leveraging digitization and automation opportunities. Over the past 2-year period, we have plans -- over the 2-year period, we have plans to reduce our nonmanufacturing workforce by up to 7,000 roles or 15%. The restructuring program provides us the flexibility to continue to invest in excellent execution of our strategy and to, over time, return to our long-term algorithm. So moving on to strategy. We continue to invest in creating superior propositions for our consumers and retail partners with relevant innovation, powerful brand campaigns across every touch point and continuously improving in market execution across all channels and platforms. We are fully activated, it's working. Therefore, we have high confidence in continued improvement. We remain committed to our integrated growth strategy, a portfolio of daily-use products and categories where performance matters, superiority across product, package, brand communication, retail execution and value, productivity with multiyear visibility to fund superiority and deliver financial results at the level you and we expect, constructive disruptions to stay ahead and an organization fully engaged, enabled and excited to serve consumers. The strategy has enabled us to deliver significant growth and value creation over the better part of the past decade and while we believe the strategy continues to be right, we need to adapt our execution in light of the changes and the external environment. While the core strategy remains constant, we have consistently outlined 3 major changes in the landscape around us. Media fragmentation and changing consumer media preferences are affecting how consumers collect information about our categories including social media, retail media, AI portals. Inflation across food, energy, health care and many other areas of spending has taken a toll on consumers and how they assess value. Recent geopolitical events have elevated this to a new level. The retail landscape is changing, more concentration, but also brand proliferation, retailers are becoming media platforms and media platforms are striving to become retailers. In short, the consumer path to purchase is changing every day, and we expect an even more intense pace of change in the next 3 to 5 years. And these changes are as much a short-term reality as they are a long-term opportunity for us. To adjust to these changes in the external landscape, we are adapting business plans with urgency. The changes include putting the consumer first, transforming brand building, creating holistic partnerships with retailers and driving stronger core and bigger more innovation. We are already seeing strong results in the parts of the business that have made these interventions holistically. Latin America has most broadly and completely implemented many of the adjustments. In each of the 3 quarters of fiscal '26, the business in Latin America has grown mid- to high singles, has grown share and has driven market and profit growth. There are many country category combinations where these interventions are leading to growth. So let's highlight a few more. Building on the success of Dawn Powerwash in the U.S., Fairy Skip the Soak in the U.K. is a great example of deep consumer insights, driving innovation. Consumer research showed us that more than 70% of U.K. consumers soak dishes before washing, different than the U.S. With this insight in mind, watching how the consumer used the product in the home, we created the Fairy Skip the Soak idea, which instantly and intuitively helps consumers understand what the product is and why they need it. Integrated superiority across all vectors where the product name inspires the packaging, in-store execution and communication all supported by superior performance that delivers on the promise. So let's watch the ad from the U.K., please. [Presentation]

The results, Skip The Soak lifted the total Fairy brand household penetration to 61%, up 5 points in the first year. Skip The Soak drove 5% category growth and 7% Fairy value sales growth. This is a great example of following the consumer and addressing local habit differences. . Next example, authentic, personal conversations and trusted recommendations from experts and social communities are crucial to cutting through the fragmented media landscape, driving awareness and influencing consumer purchase decisions. Pantene in Germany built their communication to support this insight. The team engaged relevant top German beauty opinion leaders, hair experts and stylists to share their endorsement about Pantene with their communities. At the same time, the brand team activated micro and [ mitty ] influencers through curated Pantene gift boxes sparking organic conversations, reviews and content across social media. And in addition, Pantene elevated its presence at culturally relevant talkable events like the Oktoberfest and Berlin Fashion Week, where great hair styling matters. We created immersive styling experiences with celebrity stylists, indirectly reaching influencers and celebrities, seamlessly integrating our brand story into high-impact earned content within their relevant communities. The impact earned influencer post grew 4x, and total reach tripled with a 20% reduction in media spend. Pantene grew users reaching 130,000 new households, resulting in sales growth of 17%, value share growth of plus 60 basis points versus a year ago in Germany. Tide is a great example of a stronger core and bigger more innovation. This past fall, we launched the biggest upgrade to Tide original liquid in over 2 decades. And we have already shared the dramatic performance turnaround, and the growth continues, adding 4 more months of accelerated growth, while we expanded boosted to Tide Free & Gentle. Let's watch a Tide boosted ad that shows the performance and the consumer value. [Presentation]

A great example of a bigger more is Tide evo. Tide evo represents the biggest innovation in laundry, crafted by concentrating active surfactants ingredients into a mixture that is spun into individual fibers. This new-to-the-world formulation and assembly process is proprietary to P&G, and protected by over 50 granted patents, making it a truly unique technology. Incrementality was strong in the test market and the innovation and communication has an overall boost on Tide cleaning equity across forms. Evo is now available in store nationwide,; and it's building trial and awareness. And here is the latest Evo ad. [Presentation]

Mr. Clean continues to innovate on its core proposition and solving more cleaning jobs with new additions to the portfolio, core and more. The brand has launched new innovations on the Magic Eraser platform that improves the longevity with a denser foam and a wider micro scrubbing structure that now lasts 2x longer. . We restaged the packaging to show room and mass-focused names that clearly signal where to use the eraser. At the same time, we launched Mr. Clean shower and tub scrubber to address consumers' #1 most hated cleaning chore, the shower and the tub. Mr. Clean shower and tub scrubber delivers a quicker, easier and deeper clean with the power of the Magic Eraser, a sturdy grip handle, built-in squeegee, and a pivoting head for hard-to-reach areas. So let's watch the ad. [Presentation]

The result, Mr. Clean is winning consumers and driving category growth, delivering 18x its fair share of the bath and cleaning category growth since launch. In addition, Mr. Clean Erasers are also growing, with sales up 11% in the total market and household users, up 13% since launch. Mr. Clean is solving consumer tensions with innovation that delivers on the core brand promise and the bigger more solving more cleaning jobs. Our Latin America team is winning across all segments of the cough & cold category with a consumer-first mindset. The team uncovered a deep consumer insight, Latin American consumers perceive products as more efficacious when they deliver a sensorial experience. Consumers need to feel the immediate sensation and relief to believe the product is working. This insight, feel immediate relief was brought to life with upgraded packaging, brand communication and retail execution that visually showed the product bringing fast relief. The sensorial benefit was incorporated across the full Vicks portfolio, ensuring one unified brand while leveraging the deep equity of the core Vicks VapoRub. Let's watch 2 ads. [Presentation]

The brilliant execution of this consumer insight has led Vicks to be the #1 cough & cold brand in Latin America. Over the past 12 months, Vicks has grown organic sales mid-teens and gained over 1 point of share while growing the category. So each of these examples enhance the perceived value equation for our consumers by improving product, package, communication, retail execution and in some cases, price, up or down. With the consumer at the center to growing users. If we are not growing users, some element of the consumer value equation needs to be adjusted. Our priority is to address consumer value gaps by working on the numerator of this equation through innovation and improved execution. The simplicity of linking superiority to user growth in this way, increases the urgency to adjust the vectors as needed versus assessing each element individually. When we get the equation right, we grow users, we lead market growth and grow market share, sales and profit. In addition to the near-term interventions we are making in each brand category and country, we continue to lead constructive disruptions to stay ahead. We are doing this with better innovation, more flexibility, more efficient supply chain, better decision-making and resource allocation with more external focus. We will leverage P&G's strength and unique capabilities to create the CPG company of the future. These strengths include unique innovation capabilities, advanced data lake and AI platforms, brand building reinvention to create deep consumer connection and an industry-leading supply chain. It took years to build these underlying platforms and capabilities, and we are now in full scaling mode across the company, and we will go into more detail on each of these pillars at Investor Day in November. Today, I want to highlight how our industry-leading supply chain is benefiting P&G as we work through the current global supply chain challenges related to the Middle East conflict. As an example, surfactants are the most oil-sensitive ingredient in our materials portfolio, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz directly constrained the primary feedstock of this critical cleaning agent and the industry lost around 20% of primary feedstock used to make surfactants across the world when factoring in logistical constraints. Despite these significant disruptions, we have not gone out of stock or made compromises on product performance. The same is true for nonwovens, polyethylene, polypropylene and perfumes. This outcome was not improvised. It reflects years of deliberate investment and formula flexibility, business continuity planning, proprietary chemical manufacturing capabilities, deep supplier partnerships and intentional digital investment to drive data connectivity across the supply chain. We are confident we have the right strategy and choices to win in the long term, building on our successes in the near term. And with that, we'll be happy to take your questions.

Okay. Thanks, Andre. .

Appreciate it.

Okay. You covered a lot of ground there. So let -- let me start with, I think, what is top of mind for a lot of investors, and you mentioned watching the U.S. consumer and some of the softening that you've seen most recently, although it looks also to me fluctuating kind of period to period. So maybe we can zero in there and just go a little deeper into what you're observing and how that's impacting both your tactics in the market and your planning for the future.

Let me start maybe with the longer term. I think if you look over 12-week rolling periods, the U.S. consumer has been relatively stable and consuming in the range of 2% to 3% in all categories. We don't believe that's changing in the near term, but we see volatility driven by event timing, holiday timing, short-term shocks to their wallet like a $6 gas price. But if you, again, step back and leave the 1- to 4-week period view and look at a rolling 12-week period, 2% to 3% is what we're seeing. Most importantly, we believe that over a 12- to 18-month period, so looking 12 months ahead, 18 months ahead, we can help grow the market back to 3% or higher growth. We believe that innovation based pricing, penetration growth and more investment from retailers in our categories as excitement is building, will bring the consumer back to the aisle and will grow the category at the historical rate somewhere between 3% and 4%. And that's really where all the focus is, where all the interventions are that I've talked about, Steve, is really, a, grounded in the fact that, okay, there's short-term volatility, but the underlying consumer is relatively stable at 2% to 3%. That though is not good enough. We want to have the market growth back to 3% plus so that we can go back to our algorithm on the top line in mid-single digits, and that's where all the interventions are focused. What are the interventions? It's really that simple equation that we put up there, where we know we grow users when we have the combination of product, package, communication, go-to-market execution relative to the price, right. So we also know that if we don't grow users, something must be done. So the simple equation takes all the time back out of the conversation because we know if you don't grow users, you don't have your superiority equation right, which triggers immediate action in the categories. That's what we've been focusing over the last 9 to 12 months. What is the exact action plan in the top 50 category country combinations. And most of them are in the U.S., to be honest, to get back to user growth. User growth means category growth means us growing share, growing top line and getting back to algorithm.

Great. I'll come back to that in a second. But I guess if you pan out and you think about other key markets around the globe, maybe a little bit more context into what you're seeing around the world. And in the context of the cost dynamic that you mentioned, just visibility is low, but how are -- how is that all factoring into your planning considerations for '27?

I think the balance of markets is actually strengthening and maybe a little less -- a little less volatile than the U.S. right now. We look at enterprise market. We have sustained category growth around 4%. And we have sustained share growth. Our momentum in LA is continuing to strengthen. You've seen high singles growth, and I think that is sustaining share growth consistently across the categories. Asia, Middle East, Africa is growing and accelerating. We quoted the number of 3.5% growth, if you exclude the restructuring decisions. But that number even is accelerating. So we feel good about Asia, Middle East, Africa momentum. Europe enterprise markets and Europe focused market stable, 1% to 2% growth. So the balance of markets is doing well. China continues to be challenged from a macroeconomic standpoint. However, our categories have also returned to slight growth. Our P&G categories have returned to slight growth in the range of 2% to 5%. So if I look at the balance of the portfolio, relatively stable towards low to mid-singles. The key variable for us is I come back to North America, to the U.S., getting the U.S. back to 3% to 5% top line growth will bring us back to algorithm.

Okay. On those country category combinations where you made interventions to reestablish superiority, what's the scorecard as we sit here today, 9 to 12 months from restructuring announcement? .

So let's maybe pick the U.S. as a good example. Mindy, our President of North America basically is measuring brand customer combination. And the score is, do you have a plan, a firm plan aligned with the customer to grow share within the next 90 days. And that scorecard is now 80% green. So a plan has been aligned, is being executed to grow share. Where that plan is hitting reality, we are seeing the results that we want. Is it a guarantee that all of that 80% is going to turn green? No. But compared to where we were 9 months ago, I think we have a much clearer picture of what needs to be done. The plans are aligned with our retail partners. The execution is aligned, the innovation is ready to go. So that's being executed. And the same is happening in the rest of the world, not at the customer level, but at the country level, so the brand country level. So slowly, but surely, we're working through the top 50 category country combinations. In our most recent quarter, you've seen 26 of our top 50 are holding or growing share. We need to get that number up closer to high 30s, high 40s to have consistent share growth.

Okay. What about -- if we look at the restructuring from a different -- kind of from a functional perspective, right? So there is elements that we've talked about in the presentation, portfolio simplification, organizational simplification. If you were to just assess progress against those original objectives today, how are we tracking and where are the biggest unlocks to come as you think about the next 12 months?

From an organizational standpoint, we are right on track. So if you look at the 7,000 role reduction that we targeted, 15% of nonmanufacturing headcount, we are right on track after year 1 to have slightly more than half of those reductions executed. The balance of the organization is clear, has been notified. So we're working through the rest. The teams are doing a fabulous job doing this in a very respectful way. You see we're taking longer. We're taking 2 years to execute that reduction. You see some of them being executed in other industries ad hoc. That's not the way we do them. We take time. We talk to the individuals. The benefit for us is no disruption on the business, absolutely no disruption on the business, which is important to us, important to the organization. The teams then are reorganizing. They are building smaller business teams. So instead of having every function represented in every brand team and every customer team, you see more and more choices to combine roles, to make teams smaller, make roles bigger. And that is enabled to a large degree, by technology. I've talked before about 4 technology toolboxes we're developing. The first one is really focused on that. How to extract data, how to use technology and AI to analyze data at scale and how to replace internal reporting requirements and automate them fully. That frees up an enormous amount of time for the teams to really focus externally on the consumer. Those 2 boxes are ready and they are being scaled across the organization. Brand building is the second toolbox. How do we reinvent brand building and come to a more integrated AI-based content creation, content amplification across platforms, measurement and then close the loop again. Again, that toolbox is being developed and scaled as we speak. Innovation, how do we create innovation from consumer insights, concept ideas at the same time, develop the product, qualify via digital twin so we can bring it on the line faster and get it to market quicker. Toolbox #3 already being scaled in R&D. And number 4 is essentially Supply Chain 3.0, which, to a large degree, is automation, running unattended operations, unattended warehouse operations. So that's our lever to efficiency in the cost of goods space. All 4, Steve, are well qualified. We now need to make sure that we can, again, scale them, push them out to the organization. And I think our biggest opportunity then is adoption, which will enable, I think, further opportunities. And our conviction today is that we can grow this company post the 15% reduction in nonmanufacturing headcount that we can grow this company without adding headcount, which is really hopefully then preserving the simplification and the agility that we're trying to drive with a 2-year intervention plan.

Okay. Very good. The category that we haven't talked about today, but we've talked about it for a while, and we'll talk about now, Baby -- Baby and Family, mostly Baby. I'm assuming that on that scorecard of those 50 top country category combinations, that's an area where there's still a lot of progress to be made or at least progress to be made. Where are -- where do you see the Baby business today relative to competitive conditions? And what's your -- I guess, your forecast for progress? .

Baby is a tale of two cities, not to stretch a story here. But outside of the U.S., baby Care is growing, growing sales, growing share, leading innovation, leading market growth. We've talked about China many times, but in a market where birth rates are declining 15%, Baby Care is growing 20% and growing share. In Europe, Baby Care is growing share, where the only other competitor really is private label, which is priced less than half of Pampers. We're growing, growing share. Enterprise markets in general, we're growing and growing share, biggest challenge in U.S. And I think the U.S. is a dynamic of heavy price competition in the short term that we saw, and we don't like. Baby Care isn't an expandable category. So just because you cut prices, you're not going to sell more diapers. So if you start cut prices or driving heavy promotion, all you do is contract the market. So we don't like that playbook. We are adapting to the reality that we're seeing in the market. By adapting to that reality, we've returned diapers to share growth. You've seen it in the last 4-, 6- and 8-week period. So it's not rocket science, but it's just not the way that we like to drive the category. So we're complementing that with very strong innovation. You also see strong brand launches based on Chinese imports. You see Rascal & Friends. You see some of the Zuru brands having taken a foothold in some of the retailers. That's the reality we need to acknowledge. So we are developing products that are able to compete and win against those competitors. And that's really the journey we're on. So short-term value competitiveness is critical. That already brings us back to the share growth area. Now it's about truly developing the most superior proposition across every value tier, and that's what the team is on. We are not limited here. I think we have both the consumer understanding, the technology understanding, the ability to invest. But Baby Care, as we talked, Steve, Baby Care is a longer innovation cycle category, simply because of the complexity of the manufacturing process. But I have no doubt we will get there. .

Great. Okay. You talked in the presentation about concept of media companies becoming retailers and retailers becoming media companies, retailers consolidating, I guess -- and the partnerships that you're forging to succeed in that new environment. Can you go a little deeper and talk about exactly the nature of the partnerships and why they're advantaged versus other companies?

I don't know if I'm going to address the second element of your question. But the first one, look, if you look at the categories we're in and the brands we have, they are foundational to driving traffic. Winning with Pampers is foundational to getting young families onto your platform or into your store, winning with Tide which has above 60% share of the laundry category is foundational to drive traffic to your site and to your store. Growing these categories, which are huge and profitable for retailers is a critical element of their business model. So there is a joint interest in driving growth in these brands if the fundamentals are right. . So the conversation starts with what is keeping us from growing with you, which is finding if there's profitability issues, finding synergies in the combined supply chain, finding synergies on how to create value is a very easy path to unlocking that issue, which we've done successfully with multiple retailers in the U.S. The next question is how do you drive traffic. So how do you capitalize on the strength of the brands on your platform? What is needed and getting the teams together and sharing in their own language, what is keeping consumers from transacting is a critical element. And we found that putting teams together in a room and working through it is an enormous unlock to what might be an intervention we want to make, either in terms of search, in terms of offers. So for example, on some online platforms, we had the common belief that bigger transaction size was the right way to go. And we found that many of our retail partners were actually struggling with that because they weren't able to get new users onto the platform. So trial driving -- pack sizes, trial driving activity was key. Working through those elements unlocks exactly what they are after and what we are after, new users to the platform, new users to the brands at a profitability that is attractive to them, building on combined capabilities from supply chain to media activation. Every time we have that conversation, there's an enormous amount of value to be unlocked.

Great. We have a couple of minutes left. I guess maybe to close, there's an accelerated amount of activity inside P&G amidst lots of external challenge. I guess what is the level of focus inside the company on these priorities as you've outlined them and the energy that exists around accomplishing the goals you have set?

I would describe the energy as an enormous amount of impatience. And the impatience is only rising as you get clearer and clearer on the interventions that need to be made. And I think with a new leadership team with Shailesh coming in, we have new leaders across many parts of the business, which are building on great experience in the business, that in patience is only growing. So I feel a great amount of energy. Many of you will hopefully come to Investor Day in November. So you see many of our new leaders. It's actually a pleasure to work with the team and to see the urgency with which they are acting. Again, what our job is to balance urgency with diligence to make sure we get this right. But I feel good about where we're headed, and I feel good about the capability of the team to get us back to algorithm soon.

Great. With that, we're out of time. But I want to thank Andre and John and Procter & Gamble, and thank all of you for joining us today. Thank you.

Thank you.