The Rank Group Plc (RNKA.F) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. I'm John O'Reilly. I'm Rank Group's CEO. I'd like to welcome you to the group's results presentation for the half year ended 31st December 2023. Many thanks for taking the time to join us here this morning, and thanks to for those of you who are joining us online. Very much appreciated. I'm going to provide a summary of the group's performance in the first half, and Richard Harris, our CFO, will run you through the financial numbers. And I'll do a bit of that in the context of The Rank investment case. I'll then provide a quick update on the transformation program, the delivery of our key kind of strategic initiatives, including the progress we're making with our ESG agenda and where we are with a vitally important U.K. government review of gambling legislation and regulation. So I'll cover that, too. In overview, and we've had a lot of challenges to deal with in recent years, but we turned the corner last year, I think, and we've continued that improvement in performance in the current financial year. So a much improved first half with like-for-like revenues up 9%, delivering an underlying operating profit of GBP 21.7 million, which is very much in line with our expectations. And very importantly, all businesses. So Grosvenor, Mecca, and Enracha, all venues business, I should say, delivered good levels of revenue and profit growth in the period. And we saw continued solid progress in the digital business with good revenue growth and improving profit conversion. Very importantly, we successfully concluded the refinancing of the group in January just with GBP 121 million of facilities secured through to 2026-'27. And our strong balance sheet has meant that we're able to continue to invest in our strategic priorities across the group. And with the gambling review in the U.K. coming to fruition, we have lots of opportunities to invest and to further develop our business. And those vital modernizing reforms for casino and bingo are expected to be in place by this summer. So lots of investment ready to go. Now getting into a little more detail on the results in the first half, and I'll start with Grosvenor Casinos, the health of which is obviously key to the overall performance of the group. Now here in Grosvenor, like-for-like revenue of GBP 167.5 million was up 10% on the prior year, and average NGR per week of GBP 6.4 million, and that compares with an average of about GBP 5.8 million per week in the prior full year. And the graph here shows that gradual progress in the average net gaming revenue per week following the low points after lockdown and the peak of the impact of affordability restrictions on our customers. The London estate grew revenue 8%, while outside of London, the estate grew revenue by 11%. And across the estate, customer visitors grew 8%, and spend per visit was up by 2%. Now with the significant operating leverage in the Grosvenor business, the 10% growth in revenue led to an underlying profit nearly tripling from GBP 4.7 million to GBP 14 million. We're inevitably still experiencing cost inflation and the problem with cost inflation in the gambling business, you can't pass that on to the customer in the form of price increases. But employment costs and our people being our most important resource, of course, was up GBP 5.4 million in the Grosvenor business against the prior year, but that was partially offset by GBP 2.4 million reduction in energy costs in the period. We actually slowed investment in Grosvenor in the first half to focus on planning the implementation of the required enablement works for the increase in gaming machine volumes and for sports betting, which we'll be commencing in the second half. With a strengthened management team, we're gaining momentum. We anticipate continued recovery. And of course, we have those much-needed reforms to the customer proposition of land-based casinos to look forward to. To bingo to Mecca, bingo sector was weak following or before the pandemic and the step-down in visits and customers resulting from lockdown, particularly amongst the older cohort of customers clearly has taken its toll on the bingo sector. But coming out of the pandemic, there were just too many bingo venues and bingo is a liquidity game. Bigger attendances drive bigger prize boards, which in turn drive bigger attendances. And unfortunately, that works the same way in reverse. But in Mecca, we've been seeing and continue to see a turnaround in our performance. We've closed 21 Mecca venues since reopening in 2021. And in doing so, we've migrated customers and liquidity to more vibrant venues with bigger prize boards at good value prices. We've closed one more venue in the first half, taking the [ macro ] state to 55 venues, and we'll close 2 more further venues in the second half. And as this chart shows, we now have fewer loss-making venues in the estate and very importantly, the size of the losses per loss-making venue is very much reduced. So we've therefore very largely reshaped the [indiscernible] estate. In the half like-for-like net gaming revenue grew 9% in Mecca to GBP 67.2 million with visits up 2% and spend per visit growing 7%. Now buoyed by the additional liquidity driving stronger prize boards across the smaller estate, like-for-like main-stage Bingo revenue grew 20% and now on a like-for-like basis is 10% ahead of pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Gaming machine revenues in Mecca grew 9% on a like-for-like basis, but remains flat relative to 2019. And that highlights the critical importance of the government's proposed reforms. We've been making light-touch investments in the smaller macro estates, and they've been delivering encouraging results. We've been investing to modernize and improve the appeal of the exterior of our venues and to improve our gaming machine areas. And both of those investments we've seen having had a great impact in the new Mecca venue we opened in Luton a couple of years ago. Mecca is back in profit just after central costs, but a big turnaround on the GBP 4.8 million loss in half 1 of '22/'23. With further employment cost increases to manage in half 2, but with the positive momentum we're creating, we expect the business to be profitable at the full year. To Enracha, and Enracha has had another very strong half, I hope you're [ spend ] is up for this one, by the way. It's a fabulous promotion. Like-for-like revenue in Enracha grew 10% to GBP 19.5 million, that's up 21% on 2019 on a like-for-like basis. Attendances were up 9% on the prior year with spend per visit up 1%. We've continued to roll out the Enracha customer loyalty card. We've continued the implementation of a new CRM system, and we've also been rolling out machine jackpot displays, all supporting customer visit and revenue growth. The underlying like-for-like operating profit was GBP 5 million, which was 28% higher than the prior year. It's a superb business, flagship venues and a very strong management team. And to the digital business. And here, we've continued to make good progress across technology, revenue and operating profit. The key here has been the technology platforms. In the U.K., that's the technology we acquired through the Stride acquisition in October 2019. And in Spain, the platform we acquired through the acquisition of YoBingo back in June 2018. We're in control of the development road map. And in that regard, we have a lot of key deliverables landing during this calendar year. In the first half, digital revenues grew 8% to GBP 208.4 million. We saw particularly strong growth in Grosvenor, up 21% on the prior year, and in Mecca up 11%, both supported by strong cross-channel customer revenues. Revenues from other U.K. facing brands fell back 21 -- fell back 12%, beg your pardon, with marketing investment levels reset to ensure effective returns on that investment. We're confident in these brands, but we need to land some of the key technology projects before we can accelerate marketing investment. In Spain, the Yo and Enracha Digital brands grew 15% in the half. The underlying like-for-like operating profit of the digital business grew 87% to GBP 10.1 million in the half. I've mentioned those key technology developments that were on track with each of them, notably, single content management system for all brands, in-housing our app development, starting with the launch of a new Grosvenor app. The Central Engagement platform driving increased personalization and the overall modernization of the Ride platform, which will enable much faster speed to market of new products, services and customer journeys. We successfully relocated the Spanish business to Carita in December. We're getting close to completing the homologation process to become the first bingo site to launch in Portugal. That's been a journey, but we are certainly still making good progress. Just a note in regards to passion gaming, the Indian rummy business. We're treating it as an asset hold for sale. The likelihood is that following the material change to GST or the sales tax regime in India that we'll be disposing of the business to the shareholders and founders and expect to complete that in the next month or so. Across the digital business, we are making good progress, which is the all-important thing. I'm now going to hand to Richard to take you through the financial numbers.

Thank you, John, and good morning, everyone. So starting on the financial highlights. We've continued the improving revenue momentum that we saw in the second half of last year, which resulted in like-for-like net gaming revenue of GBP 362.6 million, up 9%. The positive revenue performance has converted through to improve like-for-like operating profit of GBP 21.7 million, up from GBP 2.7 million in the first half of last year. I'd run through the drivers of the improved operating profit in a bit more detail shortly, but it's pleasing to see all businesses improve their profitability in the first half. In addition, the group's rolling 12-month like-for-like operating profit showed steady improvement month-on-month through the first half of the year. The higher operating profit has fed through to underlying EPS of 2.9p per share versus a loss of 1.2p per share last year. The net free cash flow position has also improved to GBP 23.5 million, up from an outflow of GBP 5.7 million. And we ended the year with a net positive cash balance, excluding leases, of GBP 17.6 million. So in summary, at a high level, the key financial metrics all moving in the right direction. As a quick reminder, we outlined The Rank investment case at the Capital Markets event we held back in November, and that's to deliver sustainable long-term growth in both earnings and cash generation. We believe our bingo venues in the U.K. and Spain will make a positive contribution to the group's profit and cash flow. In Grosvenor, we're focused on driving weekly revenues up to at least GBP 7 million revenue per week in large part through improving our approach to risk management as well as executing on the other initiatives that are within our control. That figure of GBP 7 million is excluding the benefits of the Gambling Act review and before we make any material changes to our property estate. All in, we expect to push the business well above GBP 7 million revenue per week in the medium term, and that's with a corresponding increase in profitability. In the digital business, there's a clear plan to grow market share in what is a very competitive market. We believe the opportunity is there to deliver 8% to 12% compounded annual revenue growth as well as margin improvement of 400 to 500 basis points. John will spend some time updating on the Gambling Act review shortly, so I won't touch on that. And clearly, all these building blocks are supported by the key strategic enablers presented here. In terms of delivery against the investment case, a few points to note in the first half. So as John mentioned, the rationalization of the macro estate has continued albeit at a slower pace this year as we get closer to a more appropriate network of clubs. We closed 1 venue in the first half, taking us to 55 and 2 further clubs are planned to close in the second half. For the clubs that were trading during the period, like-for-like revenue growth of 9%, and we returned the business to a marginal level of profitability. We expect further improvement in the second half of the year and move to double-digit operating profit in the medium term. As John mentioned, Enracha has had another strong period, driving 10% like-for-like revenue growth and 28% growth in profit. In Grosvenor, we delivered GBP 6.4 million average revenue per week, up from the lows of GBP 5.1 million in the second half of FY '22. The 10% year-on-year revenue growth led to a tripling of operating profit. And this year, we'll see a seasonal low in the latter part of Q3, but expect further improvements in average revenues per week thereafter. Digital revenues grew by 8% with Grosvenor, Mecca, and Yo, all delivering really strong performance. We saw good margin improvement in the first half. And that was largely driven by the revenue growth converting through to profit. Margins will also show an improvement year-on-year in H2 before the negative impact of the Gambling Act review on the digital business in next financial year. We expect to deliver 400 to 500 basis points of improvement in the medium term despite this headwind. This chart highlights the main drivers of the year-on-year movement in like-for-like operating profit, so stripping out the impact of the closed clubs. Revenue growth of 9% delivers GBP 19.5 million improvement in first half profit, and that's after deducting associated taxes and duties as well as direct costs of sales. Energy cost savings have come through lower to the tune of GBP 5.4 million across the group. And whilst this improvement is largely driven by lower market energy prices, we're also seeing a good improvement in reduced consumption. And that reduced consumption is, in turn, driven by the capital investments we've made in energy efficiency and a management focus on removing unnecessary usage. There was a lower depreciation charge of GBP 6.9 million in the half, and that was driven by the significant impairments we had in the last financial year. On the flip side, we are facing significant increases in employment costs, which were up GBP 8.3 million on a like-for-like basis or 8%. Other costs were up GBP 4.5 million. So in summary, the revenue growth is driving improved profitability with costs netting to no material change. This chart walks you through the full income statement. First half saw an underlying net financing charge of GBP 5.3 million, of which GBP 2.8 million relates to the interest on lease liabilities and GBP 2.5 million is the net external interest payable. Separately disclosed items were GBP 5.9 million and they're largely driven by noncash charges. It was particularly pleasing to see no impairment in the U.K. venues businesses after significant charges in FY '22 and FY '23. Just for completeness, the underlying effective tax charge was GBP 2.8 million, an effective tax rate of just over 17%. So a reminder on what we're expecting on cash generation, which we're breaking down into the 3 distinct phases. In the first phase, we're investing for growth, so allowing for our earnings being on an improving trend, the necessary investment in the business and restarting the dividend at modest levels, our cash flow will be broadly neutral in this phase. During the second phase, broadly relating to the period 18 months to 3 years from now, we'll be balancing investment and returns. Our earnings momentum will have improved further. And whilst investment is still at elevated levels because we expect to be maximizing the opportunity from the Gambling Act review, we'll have a good period of modest cash generation. And finally, in the third phase, approximately 3 years from now, earnings are expected to be in a much better place, and we should be over the hump of investment required. To do in this phase, we will be really growing shareholder returns. So taking that into the period that we just reported, you can see here the bridge from operating profit to net free cash flow, which was GBP 23.5 million. Lease payments were GBP 22.9 million, and the full year outflow will be broadly double that. Tax and interest was a net receipt of GBP 2.9 million. So that includes cash tax paid in the first half of GBP 3.4 million, a tax refund with respect to historical overpayments of GBP 7.9 million, and net external interest paid of GBP 2.1 million. Capital expenditure in the period was GBP 20.7 million and is primarily related to refurbishment projects and product upgrade in Grosvenor, continued investment in the digital platform, and the low-cost investment schemes in Mecca. Working capital inflow in the period was GBP 21.8 million, and that is driven by the timing of our working capital cycle and that will largely unwind in the second half of the year. The cash outflows and separately disclosed items were GBP 3.1 million, and the vast majority of that related to the Mecca closed clubs. In the table on the right-hand side here, you can see there's a relatively straightforward flow-through of net free cash flow into closing net cash of GBP 17.6 million. You'll recall that we completed a short-term amend and extend of our existing debt facilities in August 2023 with the 4 then incumbent banks. And I'm pleased to say that earlier this month, we completed the longer-term refinancing of the business, with 2 existing lenders and introducing 2 new lenders into the banking group. The new GBP 120 million facility comprises of GBP 30 million term loan with a tenor of 2 years and 9 months, and a revolving credit facility of 3 years. Both have 2 annual extension options at the land's discretion. The new debt facility retains the 2 financial covenants, which were applicable to the previous facilities. So it's net debt-to-EBITDA not exceeding 3x and EBITDA to net interest payable of no less than 3x. In addition, there's an additional covenant referred to as fixed charge cover ratio where EBITDA plus net operating leases has to be at least 1.5x net interest payable plus operating leases. The group currently has significant headroom against these covenants and we expect to be well within the covenant limits throughout the period of the facility. As a result of the refinancing, we expect net financing charge in the current year to be GBP 14 million, and that includes the IFRS 16 lease interest charge of around GBP 6 million. Importantly, it also reflects the one-off accelerated write-off of historical financing costs. For next year, this will reduce to a more normalized cost of GBP 12.5 million to GBP 13 million, and that's based on current interest rates. Importantly, the GBP 120 million facility gives the group a strong financial foundation on which to implement our strategy over the next 3 years. And it also allows us to accelerate investment where we're generating strong returns. I'm just going to finish by summarizing our financial guidance for the remainder of this year and provide some key points of guidance for FY '25. Starting on energy costs, which reduced significantly from the highs seen over FY '23. To plan the business with a good level of certainty, we've taken a much more proactive approach to fix in the price of energy in advance of consumption. We fixed the price on 85% of our energy needs for the second half of the year with expected full year costs of GBP 18.5 million. That's down from an expectation of GBP 20 million at the start of the year and GBP 28.6 million last year. For FY '25, we fixed the price in approximately 45% of our requirements and energy costs are expected to be broadly flat on the current year. Moving to wage costs, which make up almost half of the group's overheads, minimum wage in the U.K. increased by 9.3% in April 2023, and will grow by a further 9.8% in April 2024. In particular, the increase in April 2024 is a higher increase than most business we're predicting and we're no different. Given the relative size of our wage costs, that's a headwind we'll have to manage through over the course of the next 12 months. Bringing it all together, we expect 7% wage growth for the current financial year and then the same again next year. And then for completeness, you can see the net financing charge that I talked to on a previous slide. On capital expenditure, our guidance for the current financial year remains at around GBP 50 million. Around 30% of this is driven by maintenance spend and venues to ensure they remain operational and all hygiene factors are dealt with, and we are dealing with a bit of a historical backlog here. So there's going to be a period of elevated spend to get through the major issues. There'll be some enabling works for the Gambling Act review in 14 Grosvenor Casinos this year and ongoing investment in gaming machine product. As we outlined at the Capital Markets event in November, we'll continue to invest in the development of our proprietary digital platforms, which we believe are our key assets. In FY '25, we're expecting to spend around GBP 60 million with a step up from the current year, largely driven by further investment in the Grosvenor estate off the back of the Gambling Act review and the refurbishment of our largest casino at The Vic on Edgware Road. We'll take a disciplined approach to investment and will only be spending where we're confident of generating strong returns. And with that, I'll hand back to John.

Many thanks, Richard. So that was the first half of the year. And now I'll update on what's ahead of us. And let me start with the U.K. government's review of gambling legislation regulation. And as I've said, we're anticipating the reforms being implemented this summer. Following publication of the U.K. government's white paper last April, DCMS have been running consultations on the proposed land-based reforms, which will be delivered by secondary legislation. It's also run consultations on our maximum slot stakes and on the statutory levy. And alongside DCMS consultations, Gambling Commission is running a series of consultations on the proposed regulatory changes that were contained in the white paper. The government expects a secondary legislation for the key land-based reforms to be on the statute books by the summer. And by sort of way of reminder, these changes will double the number of gaming machines across the Grosvenor Estate, enable sports betting, which will further improve the accessibility of casinos; allow electronic payments in both casinos and bingo; and replace the current 80/20 rule restricting category B3 machines in bingo to just 20% of total machines in a bingo venue. And on that note, DCMS has recently published a further consultation on 2 further options from the 3 options in the original consultation, and that's to move to 2:1 or 3:1, category B3 to category C and D machines, both of which, if either of those were implemented, that would be a positive step forward for the sector and for the macro estate. The statutory levy will increase ranks payments to research prevention treatment by around GBP 4 million per annum by 2027, it ratchets up over the years. And that's split broadly 2/3 in the digital business and 1/3 in Grosvenor venues. Online maximum stakes, if they were to be set at GBP 5, and 1 of the proposals was for GBP 2, a lower level at GBP 2 for under 25s, that would likely impact digital profitability by about GBP 4 million per annum. We don't yet know the outcomes of the consultation. About GBP 5 has been the recommendation of the recent DCMS Select Committee review of the government's white paper. And if that were to be the level, as I say, it's about a GBP 4 million per annum negative impact on our digital business. Conversely, of course, we expect a significant net upside benefit for the group from the proposed land-based reforms, which will enable casinos and bingo to better meet customer expectations. And reality is that the land-based customer proposition is largely turned by legislation. So gambling reviews don't come very often, but when they do, they provide a critical opportunity to ensure sensible modernizing reforms to what has become outdated law. We're working hard to ensure that we're ready to implement those reforms as quickly as possible and some maximum effect. But nevertheless, we expect it to inevitably take some time to optimize the opportunity. And now the group strategy is delivered through the transformation program framework, and that ensures all of our key initiatives are properly prioritized, resourced and tightly monitored as they progress through to delivery. And there's a summary in the deck, actually in the back of the slide deck, in the appendices to key initiatives that we delivered in the first half of the year. And here are just some of the highlights of the initiatives we're delivering in the second half of the year. In Grosvenor, we've mentioned the enablement works in 14 Grosvenor venues to increase the gaming machine offer. In a large number of venues, we don't require any work. And a small number will require extensions in other major works. We're further modernizing the electronic gaming machine offer, changing out the oldest machines as we're seeing good returns on the investment. And we're also carrying out a full refurbishment of Grosvenor Leicester, and be modernizing the exteriors of 4 Grosvenor venues in the half. In Mecca, we're continuing with a small number of investments to modernize and rebrand exteriors and to update gaming machine areas, and we're also rolling out a new colleague uniform across the [indiscernible] estate. In Enracha, we're launching the Enracha Club, which is a single cross-channel registration for our customers. We're refurbishing 2 venues, 1 in Sabadell and the other in Seville and we're continuing the rollout of the customer loyalty program. Within the cross-channel work stream, we're launching a new in-house developed app for Grosvenor casino customers. We have a number of product enhancements to the live casino portfolio and to the Mecca joint liquidity game, Mecca Fortune. And we're progressing with the single with the development of the single membership for Mecca customers, which we anticipate launching around the end of the calendar year. In digital, we're rolling out the single content management system with Mecca and Grosvenor completed in this half and the other U.K. facing brands following later this calendar year. We expect to complete the modernization of the platform by the end of the calendar year, and fingers crossed, we'll go live with YoBingo in Portugal. Livestream bingo will be launched into the Spanish market next month. In terms of the work stream to improve organizational capability, we're working on a payroll optimization project to improve our efficiency, particularly in terms of workforce planning capabilities. We have a number of AI projects underway, both customer-facing and in improving our efficiency. And we're rolling out a new app-based communication platform for all ranked colleagues, not just in the U.K. but around the world. Just a sample of what's happening with the ongoing transformation of the group. And here's an outline of just some of the highlights we're making with the ESG transformation work stream. In terms of the customer work stream, we're pleased that our Mecca, Grosvenor and U.K. digital businesses all successfully completed Gambling Commission of compliance assessments during the 2023 calendar year. Key development has been in the completion of the central engagement platform, which provides a single repository and 1 version of the truth for all of our customer and other data. And that's central to further improving customer monitoring from a risk perspective, as well as ensuring we better meet the needs of the individual customer in real time. And particularly in the Grosvenor business, it's critical to the continued improvement in real-time customer risk management. We're nearing completion of the implementation of the Playsafe monitoring and alert system in Mecca, which provides prompts for our colleagues based upon real-time machine player behavior. And when in the colleague work stream, we'll continue the rollout of our employee value proposition, work win grow. We've further developed our benefits package, and particularly so for our colleagues in Mauritius and in Cape Town, and we intend to make further improvements in colleague engagement and employee Net Promoter Scores, and we've set new records for the group actually in our latest employee opinion survey, which we completed in November. And we've already secured 65% of our targeted emission reductions for 2023, '24, which is good progress. And we have net zero audits underway to create energy reduction plans at the individual venue level. Most of the group's decarbonization efforts inevitably sent to our properties. We've launched a ranked planet cultural program, and that's gaining good momentum across the group. In our local communities work stream, we're launching a new global volunteering initiative for all colleagues. And we've passed the GBP 3.3 million mark in terms of monies raised for our corporate charity, Carers Trust. And that does so much amazing work in support of careers within our local communities. And just a few words on current trading and the outlook. Venues and digital business experienced a busy trading period through Christmas and the New Year holiday season. We're pleased with that. We're trading normalizing throughout the rest of January. Cost of living pressure is likely to continue to bite on consumers, but we believe we have plenty of opportunities to maintain revenue growth in each of our businesses. Our strong balance sheet enables continued investment in our strategic priorities. And we're very well placed, I think, for the planned regulatory and legislative reforms in the U.K. which we anticipate hitting the statute books this summer. So we're certainly positive about the future, and we expect like-for-like operating profit for the year to the 30th of June to be in line with our expectations.

I think that takes us to questions. We're going to take questions from the floor first, I believe. So if you've got any questions, raise your hand and we'll get a mic to you. [Operator Instructions]

Richard Stuber from Deutsche Numis, please. First on the Mecca estate. You say that you've restructuring is largely complete. Or would you say there's more to go, given that 22% of your venues are still loss-making? Or do you expect that will come down significantly when the gambling reforms, I guess, come in? The second question is, could you talk about how you expect the upside from the -- how quickly do you expect to optimize the opportunity from the Gambling Act reforms, you said fairly quickly, but is that a 2, 3-year sort of time horizon? And the third question, just in terms of current trading, you say that it's normalizing in January. Is that sort of normalizing back to where you were, say, in January '23 or still up sort of mid-single digits or so year-on-year?

Okay. So let me take -- the [indiscernible] states. Yes, I think we are largely complete. So importantly, we're down at 22% of venues are loss-making in the first half. But the level of losses per venue is much reduced, and we've got the benefit of the reforms coming through this summer. So we think we are largely done. There are 2 venues that we'll close in the second half of the year, but we think we're largely done on reshaping the [indiscernible] state. So we're not anticipating any kind of significant level of further closures, and we have no obvious closures in mind right now. So I think the estate size is largely the estate size. There might be 1 or 2 that will be triggered by lease events over the coming years, but it will be triggered by lease events. So we are largely there. And yes, I mean, the big benefit for Mecca comes. We've got an exciting time coming up. Spring is a great time for the Bingo business. So we have an extra day this year, which is [ leap ] 29th of February. We are at free bingo for every customer on the 29th, the busiest day, and this tells you something actually about the bingo business, the busiest day in Bingo is Mother's Day. Biggest day in the entire year is Mother's Day because people take their mum to bingo on Mother's Day, which shows you what the Mecca business is all about actually. And we give free box of chocolates to every customer on Mother's Day. So this is the busiest time of the year we're coming into. There is lots of momentum across the estate. And yes, we have still got some loss-making venues. But I think there's not a single general manager in the Mecca estate that thinks their business is going to be loss-making this time next year. So that's the momentum, I think, in the business. It will take us a little time to implement the Gambling Act reform. So we've got -- across the Mecca estate, we've got 6 venues that won't take -- not take -- not the best expression, we've got 6 venues, which are unlikely to have any additional gaming machines because of space restrictions that are in the legislation when it lands. We've got 10 venues that don't require any modernization works in which we will implement the additional machines kind of straight away. We've mentioned we're going to do enabling work across 14 additional venues in this half of the year in readiness. After that, we've got some venues which require larger works. We've mentioned Grosvenor Leicester. Those enablement works will happen. It's a major refurbishment that will happen in the second half of this year. We've mentioned The Vic flagship casino in the estate and we're going to carry out major reforms to The Vic next year. So that's a significant investment at the The Vic on Edgware Road, and that will accommodate more machines, clearly. And then we've got other venues where they need more major works, more building works, some extensions, and in time, there will be some relocations to enable more machines to go in. And not just more machines, but also sports betting. I do think the opportunity in sports betting has not been talked about sufficiently. There is a -- having been a bookmaker most of my life, there is definitely an opportunity to come from the sports betting opportunity in casinos. And if I stand, when I stand in our casinos, what I see is our customers betting on sports. So there's an opportunity for us in sports betting. Of that I have no doubt. Normalizing in January. We had a really buoyant Christmas and New Year. I think the kind of second and third weeks of January were a bit quiet. I think January was quite a long month for the consumer, but certainly improving as we got to the end of the month. So pretty much in line with what we would have expected, not just in the Grosvenor business, but across the estate.

Ivor Jones from Peel Hunt. Can I just follow up on Richard's question in relation to the number of additional machines in Grosvenor? How many more machines could you put into the estate on the 1st of July, say as a result of all things you've discussed, and how many are going to require the more extensive work you talked about?

I think the number -- and Richard might help me with the number. I think the number is over 700 machines will go into the estate in the first few months following implementation of the secondary legislation. So that's the kind of number. In time, we expect to double, but doubling in the estate will take us a couple of years to deliver maybe a little bit longer than a couple of years. It will depend upon the usual issues around planning and all that stuff that we'll have to work our way through. But the expectation is subject to whatever the licensing process is and that will come through in the legislation when it lands, we expect subject to that to be in a position to introduce more than 700 machines in the first few months.

And you mentioned how Grosvenor digital strong growth was partly a result of cross-sell. Could you just talk a bit more about that? Was it all cross-sell? Or was it mostly organic generated customers coming to the Grosvenor Casino site?

So increasingly, over time, our sweet spot, where we compete most effectively in the market is with customers who play with us in venue and also play online and giving those customers reasons to play with us online. And we're getting better with -- and essentially, the engagement platform plays to more personalized communication, which means we can talk more effectively in real time to customers in regards to the channel in which they play or channels in which they play. And that's having the desired impact in Grosvenor, where we're up 21%, and a good chunk of that growth coming from customers who are playing with us across channel. And ditto in Mecca. We're a little bit further behind in Mecca because in Mecca, we don't have a single membership system to date. So you have to be a member twice, you have to be a member online and be a member in venue. There's a very, very strong overlap in Mecca, and again, people might not perceive this. But the reality is, if I just take the first 6 months of this year, I think we've had 465,000 unique customers who have been in a Mecca venue in the first 6 months. And of those, 110,000 customers have come to Mecca, not necessarily to play bingo, but have visited Mecca for the first time. And of those, under 35s account for nearly half of those new customers visiting Mecca. So there's a significant flow-through of customers visiting Mecca. Every week, we see circa 4,000 new customers visiting Mecca and lots of young customers. And the overlap between bingo players in venue and bingo players online is very significant. Currently, we're not meeting that. We do in terms of communication, we're not meeting it effectively because of 2 distinct membership systems. And we'll deliver that through the platform development by ambitiously, we're saying the end of the year. I think ambitiously, we might hit the end of the year. But that will be a major step forward for the Mecca business. And that development on our proprietary platform will also flow-through into an improved membership system for Grosvenor customers in due course. So lots of upside to come, I think, in that sweet spot, which is that cross-channel ability, the ability for customers to play with us across channel.

Can I just make sure I've understood what you're saying about Grosvenor digital's growth in the first half, though. Are you saying you're getting more wallet share from existing cross-channel customers? Or you're getting a lot of new customers with an increased footfall in the Grosvenor clubs?

So probably a bit of both, but we can't know the share of wallet. Unfortunately, we can't know share of wallet. But by presumption, if those customers are spending more with us, it probably is an increase in share of wallet. So yes, that -- the sweetest spot for the Grosvenor business in the first half of the year has been that, that customer who plays with us in venue and also plays online. Existing customers.

And I probably should know this, but could you explain why working capital is so seasonal and why it reverses?

If you could [indiscernible], in quarter 3, which relates to the prior period, so you've got a cash inflow, which is temporary, and then that reverses in March, April time.

So it definitely flows out?

Yes.

Got you. What are maximum stakes now across the digital business, which may have to reduce to GBP 5?

If it were to -- so it varies by game. So I couldn't give you a precise answer. But the amount of stakes above GBP 10 per spin is pretty small, it's small beer. At GBP 10, it is fun and exciting for the consumer. Not many customers come online and play a slot game for GBP 10 a spin. But if you're winning, as I well know, it does change your behavior. That is the reality of life. So reducing the stakes per spin to GBP 10 or lower, and clearly, GBP 15 is one of the options in the consultation paper. But DCMS Select Committee has suggested GBP 5. If that's where this comes out, then that's about a GBP 4 million, we think -- and that's based upon a number of assumptions about substitution. For some customers, it will undoubtedly reduce the fun and excitement of playing a game online, for some customers, but because they're all different as consumers. But if it were to be at GBP 5 with some assumptions about substitution, our expectation is it's about GBP 4 million a year in lost revenues.

And the last one. The estimate of the GBP 4 million impact for the levy in due course. Is that a gross impact? Are there other payments ranks already voluntarily making that it will...

That's the net increase in our payments. So that's the net number, that's the increased number. And as I said, split broadly, no impact on Mecca. Under the current government proposal, it can change because, obviously, the DCMS have not responded -- have not yet published the outcome of the consultation. But based upon the consultation, there'll be no increase to research prevention treatment donations from the Mecca business. And that GBP 4 million at 2027 would be split broadly, 2/3 digital, 1/3 Grosvenor.

So you'll carry on paying -- The Rank will carry on with its current investments in that area and layer on the statutory obligations.

Yes, indeed.

Greg Johnson, Shore Capital. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, could you update on the Board's thinking regards reinstating the dividend, given the capital investment requirements for the gambling reforms? Secondly, on digital, Obviously, the other brands saw a sort of double-digit decline. What is your thinking with regards the makeup of the other brands and growth relative to the sort of 8% to 12% medium-term growth projections you set out in the Capital Markets Day. And finally, it's been a long 5 years for us all. But can you sort of remind us of seasonality between sort of the first half and second half or throughout the year for the group?

Okay. Richard, do you want to start with the -- do you want to take the dividend question?

Yes. So we put into statement, Greg, that we will recommence the dividend as soon as circumstances permit. What does that mean in practice? So we recognize the importance of the dividend for all of our shareholders. We just want to balance that with making sure that we've got a sustained period of improved performance before we get it reinstated. So I would expect the Board to be on another good conversation by that at the year-end. But we understand the importance of it to shareholders.

In terms of seasonality?

Yes, not a material difference in terms of H1, H2 seasonalities. The only thing that we do have, we have a seasonal low point in the Grosvenor business in Q3 of this financial year. So that's just a kind of annual low point in terms of seasonality. But in terms of profitability contribution, not materially different.

And let me deal with the other brands. So yes, what we did in the first half, we're not getting the same investment, same return investment in the other brands that we're getting from the Mecca and Grosvenor businesses. So we reduced investment. And our expectation is that when we deliver the single content management system, it will give us a lot more capability across those brands, and we will be reigniting marketing investment across those brands at the point at which the single content management system lands. Because the benefit -- a lot of those brands are largely hard-coded front ends. So by way of example, daily retention games and so on are not delivered on most of those brands today, which means that retention rates typically are lower than we would expect. So lots of benefits come. And yes, lots of benefits come and we would expect to be investing in growing those brands in line with that kind of 8% to 12% growth that we've suggested further down the track and certainly in the second half of this year. If there are any more questions in the room or...

Okay. John, we've got a few questions that have been submitted online. The first one is from Vishal Bhatia from JO Hambro. Thanks for the detail on the growth CapEx, which is approximately 70% of your overall budgets for this year and next, i.e., in other words, GBP 5 million of cumulative growth CapEx invested in the group over the next 2 years. Can you please discuss the expected IRR and payback on these investments? Also, when does the group expect to revert to the circa GBP 35 million to GBP 40 million run rate seen in pre-COVID years. Richard, do you want to take the CapEx question?

Richard, do you want to take the CapEx question?

Yes. So GBP 35 million to GBP 40 million run rate pre-pandemic didn't allow for the fact that we now own our RIDE proprietary platform. So as we outlined at the capital market spend in November, we are continuing to invest in that platform. So the GBP 35 million to GBP 40 million. You've then got a layer on top of the investments we're making in our digital business on top of that. And that kind of average run rate for that is about GBP 10 million. So now owning the RIDE platform, our current run rate in the current year of GBP 50 million is broadly comparable to the GBP 35 million to GBP 40 million that we were pre-pandemic. In terms of the -- so -- and then as we also said at the Capital Markets Day, we'll have an elevated -- a period of elevated investment. So we've outlined the fact that we expect to spend GBP 60 million next year, which is a reflection of that we want to capitalize on that opportunity with the Gambling Act review. But then into the 3- to 5-year time period, we expect that to normalize back to kind of more like the GBP 50 million level. In terms of payback, so as with all of the investments that we're making, so 30% of our investment, as Vishal kind of recognizes is on the maintenance side. So we don't kind of seek to get a payback from that investment. But we want to make sure that we are maintaining our venues to an appropriate level, so that we are delivering a great proposition to our customers at all times. On the 70%, it does vary by business unit just in terms of how quickly we expect to get the payback. But the projects that we're looking at and the projects that we're talking about and have highlighted here in the main, the vast majority of those are paying back within 3 years.

Thank you, Richard. Further question from Vishal. I believe that at the CMD, you mentioned the optimism with regarding the YoSports and Portugal opportunity, but neither a part of your medium-term guidance. Please if you can provide some color on both those opportunities.

Do you want to take that?

So in terms of the medium-term guidance for digital, so 8% to 12% revenue growth compounded per annum. That is inclusive of the opportunity within YoSports and the launch of Portugal. YoSports was an addition to the kind of stable of the Yo brands, in advance to the Football World Cup last year. And I was just trying to capitalize on an opportunity to give players on our websites, the opportunity to do sports better in through our sites rather than going to alternative providers. But we expect to be able to continue to grow that business over time. And from a Portugal perspective, we are -- it's been a long homologation process, but we are expecting to be the first online bingo operator in Portugal. And we think with some good marketing behind the business, we'll be able to get that business off to a good start when we are able to launch it later this year.

David Brohan from Goodbody. Could you provide a bit more detail about the bridge from GBP 6.4 million weekly NGR in Grosvenor to GBP 7 million.

Okay. Maybe I'll take that. And thanks, David, for the question. So we're at GBP 6.4 million. And we think we can get growing before the benefit of the Gambling Act review to GBP 7 million a week. But it's not without quite a bit of challenge to deliver it. In large part, this is about improving our customer risk management processes. We've made great progress, still have a long way to go. There's still a lot more improvement to come in the risk management process. This also caused investment in products and facilities within our venues that is also driving that growth from where we are in the first half, GBP 6.4 million to GBP 7 million. It will take some time to get there, but that's the trajectory that I now think we are on. And I wouldn't want to predict when we're going to get there, but we certainly believe we can get the business back to pre the benefit of Gambling Act review to GBP 7 million in revenue per week.

Thank you, John. Further question from David. How soon can sports betting rollout across the estate?

It obviously depends on the timing of the reform, but quickly, we think. So I think there is an opportunity for sports betting bidding casinos around the world, sports betting in casino is just an expectation on the part of the consumer. One of the significant changes in the betting shop business in recent years has been the propensity of the customer to bet or using a sports betting terminal rather than betting across the count. So that's been a major shift in the betting shop business, and that is super helpful for the delivery of sports betting and casino is that the consumer is now used to betting in a terminal. So we're doing some experimentation in our 2005 Act Casino in Luton. And early days, but we're doing some experimentation there on how we will deliver this down the track to consumers across the estate. And we're optimistic about the upside opportunity. I wish to say that not every sports betting consumer visits a casino. But every casino customer bets on sports. I mean that's the reality. So I think there's a significant opportunity. We think we can roll this out fairly quickly once the -- once the reforms are in situ.

Super. John, thank you very much. We've no further questions from the webcast. Pass back to yourself for closing remarks.

Many thanks. I think in around, we think, it's pretty good 12 -- 6 months, we've got a lot of hard work ahead of us. This is a really exciting year for the group with much to do. But my thanks not only to everybody, but to all the colleagues who deliver the fun and excitement they deliver to their customers every day, because that's actually the business and that's what it's all about. So my big thanks to them for those that are listening in. Thank you for coming today. Nice to see everybody, and look forward to seeing you again soon. Many thanks.