Thor Medical ASA (TRMED) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

August 28, 2026

OB NO Health Care Biotechnology earnings 46 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Mathias Reierth

executive
#1

Good morning, everyone, and a warm welcome to all joining us today for our presentation of Thor Medical's results for the first half of 2026. My name is Mathias Nilsen Reierth. And with me today, I have my dear colleagues, Jasper Kurth, CEO; and Brede Ellingsæter, CFO and COO. There will be time for some questions after this session. So for those of you who are joining us online, please submit the questions now. and we will address a few of them before we open the floor for questions here in Oslo. Before we start, also please note that this presentation contains forward-looking statements and the full disclaimer can be found in the presentation material that we sent out earlier today. So Brede will go through operations and key financials. But first, Jasper will take you through our latest progressions in the period. Jasper?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#2

Thank you, Mathias, and a warm welcome also on my side. It's a true pleasure for me to stand here in front of you today and share the results of the first half of 2026. And I think many of you would agree with me that this half year has been a transformational half year for this company. So what started out as a dream as a concept that we piloted is now in industrial operation. And this is something that the team and personally myself, I'm very proud of. We can say today confirming the news, of course, that AlphaOne is operational that our technology has been validated and works and that our AlphaOne flagship site that is located Herøya to our south of Oslo is up and running, producing patient doses and have made first customer deliveries. So this is also the front and center of our highlights. So AlphaOne completed on time and on budget and then subsequently to the reporting period, we have started production and we have made the first delivery to an important customer. But we have not been idling on the commercial side either. We talked about partnerships and attracting more customers and we signed an important agreement with Eckert & Ziegler. We signed another agreement with Minerva, a Danish CDMO partner. So this actually moves us in the right direction, and we will touch on this in this presentation in the next couple of minutes. Also, we have made very important milestone deliveries of Lead-212 for preclinical use to Note Pharma, Minerva and a couple of other customers. So let's recap what we are here for. We're here to enable an industry to bring therapies to the market that actually make a difference for millions of patients worldwide. And that is actually what is fueling our spirit and what is actually driving us forward. And we are in the market as an early player. This is, of course, part of our story that we would like to build this market and take it over from the government players that currently supply these isotopes to the market. So as they have enabled the clinical research. We are here to continue them and actually be the leading player in this field. And I think we are set up for this quite well. And for you, investors, we believe our model and our lean organization can provide very attractive margins in our products. To recap, we are not a pharmaceutical company. And this is also another I think, positive element that we're not exposed to the same capital requirements and especially the same binary risk that you have with a clinical development pipeline. So we enable with our Lead-212 platform, a range of companies, our customers and other companies at this point to develop these drugs to do discovery and actually to bring these products to the market at 1 point. But then, of course, with a higher capacity than AlphaOne. For those of you that are not familiar with what a targeted ready pharmaceutical is [ radiligen ] therapy. Let's just recap real quick what this means. So cancer cells have different expressions of proteins on their surface. So you can actually target them with drugs. You can bring a cytotoxic drug, like chemotherapy directly to the cancer and try influencing the tumor and killing the tumor. So what we work for is bringing radio activity to the tumor, basically a radiation therapy from the inside out. So radiation has been very tried and tested in fighting cancer from the outside external beam radiation. But what if you are able to bring this down to nano level and actually attach it to cancer cells, deploy the radiation directly where the cancer is. leaving the rest of the tissue intact. And with that, have a very precise and systemic therapy. That is what RLTs are. And RLTs are in the market today. There are beta-emitting drugs that are very successful helping millions of patients today and all commercial very successful. But what we talk about here today is Alpha-Emitting isotopes that we produce here in Herøya. And to give you an example how powerful these therapies are, let me talk to you about a patient in his mid-40s, that actually is very sick, as you can see on the left picture with all these black dots in this PET/CT scan. You basically light up the tumor and the cancer cells and cluster of cancer cells with radiative tracers. And you can see that this patient is not living a good life. And I was fortunate enough to speak to the clinical team that actually deal that with this person just this year. And they told me when they had him on the PET/CT table to do the scan. He was in too much pain to actually live still, so they had to sedate him to take that picture that you can see here on the right side -- on the left side. Now that patient was enrolled by his treating physician because he was at the end of all the treatments off-label or on label that this patient could benefit from. So he was successful bringing him into this study of 1 of our customers, and he received a radio therapy with Lead-212. And just a couple of months later after 5 cycles, you see the same patient without any visible cancer. And this is what the industry calls a complete response. And I heard from the clinical team that he's playing golf tournaments today. So this is a life-changing difference that this drug makes and it's anecdotal. I know it is a clinical study. There are other cases where it's not responded that well. But despite that, these cases actually give us a lot of energy to Thor Medical to press forward and actually make this happen because without us succeeding, these therapies don't have a supply chain to support it. And we have to remind ourselves where this is an anonymous picture of someone, it is someone in the middle of their life with mid 40s, a father, a husband, a son, and you cannot imagine -- I cannot imagine having likely not been that in present situation, what this change in treatment outcome means for the families of the patient. And for that, this is our mission that we want to enable these therapies that are brilliant and they can make a difference with our technology that we have invented in this company. That leaves the emotional aspects aside for a bit and talk about the market, which, of course, is also important as a for-profit organization. We still see a very good and confirmed picture compared to the last time we spoke about it. The same data, the report is still current. So we moved into an area where we have this inflection point between the traditional share of the market, which is diagnostics. So diagnostics is a very old market. Hospitals are used to nuclear medicine when it comes to diagnosing all sorts of diseases, mainly also cancer. So we see this inflection point where the therapeutic part will outgrow the diagnostic part in this decade, and this is driven by RLTs. So the $3 billion you see here on the left side, it's seems small compared to the $9 billion but it used to be $1 billion just a couple of years ago. So it's actually moving in a very good way. And in general, the market is very active. Radiopharmaceuticals are a topic that a lot of clinicians talk about, we see a lot of capital flow into radiopharmaceuticals. And in particular, I'm very excited about the Lead-212 parts. So recently advanced and raised USD 350 million on the back of their data, a very successful capital raise with a very attractive roster of investors. We see OranoMed positioning themselves for relaunching their Phase II trial with AlphaMedix, prospective therapeutics, a very hot player in the field, competing directly with OranoMed, have now received orphan drug designation in the EU. So there's a lot of movement and momentum in the industry, but in particular, with Lead-212. And let me share our view why we believe that is and we try to compare the different isotopes here. So you have to bear with me. This is a content-heavy slide, but I'll try to walk you through as best as I can. So on the left side, you see the traditional isotope that is used in the 2 drugs that are currently marketed by Novartis Lutetium 177. So it delivers its payload over 15 days. And it has in PSMA that is prostate cancer, a 46% PSA50, so what does it mean? PSA50 is a bio indicator that actually highlights the amount of patients in the trial that have a 50% or more reduction of the PSA level, which is the biomarker for prostate cancer. So 46% of the patients treated with Pluvicto in that study showed that response. And on the neuroendocrine tumor, these are tumors on the hormone cells, mainly in the gut. There's a 13% overall response rate, meaning 13% of the patient population in the study actually showed a response of the tumor. So this is not very high, but still a very important drug to treat these very dangerous Neuroendocrine tumors. Now you move into alpha actinium, which is more advanced in the clinic. Actinium-225 over 3 weeks. So also long lived to like lutetium, half level 10 days. basically, you inject it and then you have radiation in the body for 10x the half life and also clinically, you have to deal with human waste 10x the half life. So it's a bit of a cumbersome process for everybody involved. But you get a lot of uptake when it comes to treating neuroendocrine tumors, 29% ORR. So 1/3 almost of the patient population responds positively to the drug. This is a big difference to lutetium. And that's why these actinium drugs are very hot, especially in that indication. And on prostate cancer, we see a 50% increase of PSA 50, which is, of course, also positive compared to Pluvicto with lutetium-177 but we are here to talk about Lead-212. This is what we produce, what we actually aim for with precursors and the final isotope. It's a short-lived isotope 10.6 hours, which makes it admittedly a bit more challenging to ship around the world. but the short half life is not a bug. It's a feature because safety is first and foremost, the main objective that you want to achieve. And unlike the other studies and the other isotopes, we don't have a premature termination of patients in the trial because of adverse events. This is basically true for actinium and for lutetium. It doesn't happen in Lead-212. And you can see the PSA50 levels at 80% and 60% overall response rate compared to actinium of 29, so more than doubling that amount. These numbers speak for themselves. And we believe Lead-212 is the idle isotope to treat the patient, and we trust and we are convinced that our technology helps to build a global supply chain to bring Lead-212 with 10.6 hours half-life to the patients at in time to treat the cancer and then indicate into something stable that you have the right combination of efficacy and safety, what you actually aim for in oncology at all times. We can actually see that the industry agrees with our sentiment because a lot of early clinical development goes into Lead-212. You, of course, can see that there are Phase III candidates even for actinium. There is a lot of Phase I and Phase II, but especially in preclinical phase where new drugs are developed and come into the field, they, for the most part, choose Lead-212 because of these aspects that I mentioned. And you can explain also, and I will not go into more molecular details here, but actinium, for instance, decays into more than 1 alpha emission, which makes it very hard to chelate to actually link to the targeting vector. So you have a recall effect with Newton's law that the isotope for decays has a lot of energy also on the isotope it comes from. So basically, it breaks free, and then you have a radiation without a targeting vector in your body and that can explain some of the side effects that actinium has. So we believe we are betting on the right horse. And in terms of indications, you see these 2 drugs on the bottom of the page. Pluvicto, again, this is for prostate cancer, Lutathera, neuroendocrine tumors. And these are the indications that all the alpha players go for. So there is no surprise that we have most advanced activity in clinical development on prostate cancer and neuroendocrine tumors. So for instance, at Bios drug or advanced as drug in prostate cancer. So way advanced. What I'm very excited about and personally, I think this is a very good slide for the sake of driving home a message. It is not a 2 indication pathway into the future. So in emerging indications, this means early Phase I or also preclinical phase, we see a lot of heavy hitter cancers that are targeted by our customers, skin cancer, ovarian cancer, we have colorectal cancer, we have small cell lung cancer, which is a very nasty cancer. And then in very early stages preclinically, we have exploratory diseases that are treated with Lead-212 at least experimental and preclinic today. That is brain cancer so blastoma which very prominent also unfortunate children and pancreatic cancer. And I think this is common knowledge, pancreatic cancer today is one of the worst cancer you can have in terms of growth and detection levels. So once detected it. In many cases, it's too late. So I'm absolutely excited about the future of these therapies, but of course, to grow the market, it is understandable that our customers move into these established indications where Novartis, a true marketing and sales powerhouse have trailed -- placed a nice trail for companies to show that they can substitute this with Lead-212 or in some cases, actinium. And when you talk about the battle of these isotopes, the market, as you have seen, is big enough for more than 1 -- so I think there will be coexistence for a long period of time. That said, I think Lead-212 will emerge as the leader of this because of the efficacy and safety profile. And when you look at the clinical development, for me, it's a bit surprising because I don't think Lead-212 is available as such on the market outside of Northern Europe, where we could actually ship to because you need to operate a generator. So despite these hurdles in terms of technology, Lead-212 has been very attractive for pharmaceutical companies and biotechs to do early clinical research with. So I think we have to also reflect this when we talk about our way of going to the market and running our business. And for commercial development and also finance and everything operational. I would like to hand over to Brede, who can actually walk us through what we believe is the future of this market.

Brede Ellingsæter

executive
#3

Thanks, Jasper. And good morning, everyone. It's so good to see so many familiar faces. And it's a pleasure for me to take you through commercial, operational in our key financials for the period. And I would actually like to begin to talk about the value chain and how we believe that the current constraint on availability of lead despite the promising pipeline that is already there. is still hampering the development pipeline. So -- and then I will go into how we can play a role in that value chain. But first off, the current situation is that any pharmaceutical companies in the clinic today. They have invested in a technology development and infrastructure to produce lead themselves based on sourcing thorium-228 from the DOE in the U.S. and now also from Thor Medical once we have AlphaOne off and running. And then that creates a huge capital requirement and a long development track to get the lead into the clinic. So barrier to entry is very, very high. And we see that also in the interest that we have for preclinical grades of lead that is not really available today, what we believe could be the future and what we are working towards is to have more of a integrated isotope supply from the manufacturer of the isotopes, not from the pharmaceutical side, where a player like Thor Medical could play a role by producing not only the thorium-228 but Lead-212 and rather serving the pharmaceutical industry, taking down the barrier to entry and to have access to actually working with the isotope and also benefiting from the same infrastructure across several pharmaceutical companies. And this is why we are also seeking to partner with CDMOs that is called contract and development and manufacturing organization. Typically, what they do is to provide facilities for preclinical work, but also to produce the actual drugs for the pharmaceutical companies. So it's infrastructure and its services. And what we bring is isotopes. So together, we can set up a value chain where we are serving the pharmaceutical industry. both preclinically, which will be the initial starting point, but eventually also clinically and working towards a commercial structure. And one of the benefits for Thor Medical in such a setup is that we will also have access then to a customer portfolio of the CDMOs, which is already existing, a lot of big pharma, a lot of advanced companies. Obviously, of interest to Thor Medical. And this is why we have partnered with both Eckert & Ziegler and Minerva Imaging for supply of Lead-212. Eckert & Ziegler is a global leader within isotope solutions. They are also supplying equipment into the radiopharmaceutical industry with sites all over the world, including Boston, which is what is on the picture here with Jasper and the CEO of Eckert & Ziegler, Harald Hasselmann. While Minerva is more of a Scandinavian specialized radiopharmaceutical CDMO, but fits very well with the Scandinavian footprint as we are located also in Norway. So we are very excited about what this partnership can bring. And if I were to summarize how I see our current commercial position, it is that we have very good near to midterm visibility on revenues, which is based on the supply agreements that we have for the core product, which is still thorium-228 with a total sales agreement of NOK 850 million. But on top of that, we are partnering with CDMOs to supply the short lived isotopes. This capacity, the supply of isotopes comes completely on top of what we are doing in the thorium 228 space. And that is also including in addition to revenues, it's also to enable access to lead to grow the overall market. And then at the same time, we continue to increase our sales of preclinical grade of Lead-212 and radium-224 from AlphaOne directly. So we are also doing that. Now moving on to an operational update. And I think it's worth taking the time to recap what it is that we actually do. And we are producing high-purity radioisotopes from naturally occurring thorium. And we're doing that without the use of any radiation in the form of a nuclear reactor or accelerator, which is the conventional route to produce radioisotopes. And it's a clean and green process where we're doing chemical separation based on chromatography. And if I take your attention to the right side of the slide, we are starting with thorium-232, which is what we call natural thorium. It occurs in the ground and we have established a supply chain for that specifically. And from thorium-232, which has a half-life of 14 billion years, meaning that we can infinitely reuse the raw material. We are extracting radium-228 which naturally grows in thorium and radium is our intermediate product, also a half-life of about 6 years, which means that we can reuse whatever we extract in the first period, in the next period and so on over the have more than half life and milking the salable products thorium-228 but also further radium-224 and Lead-212 meaning that we are continuously then increasing production output, as I will also show on a later slide without changing the rate of how much raw material we are taking in. And based on the decay of this product, these products, we are actually able to, at some point, when the market is reaching a steady state in terms of growth. We do not need to add any more raw materials. It's just about recycling. And this is also why we call it Alpha cycle, the production process. And as we said that it's self-scaling, as long as we are taking the same amount of raw material every year. Now of course, I'm very, very happy to be here today to say that we have actually completed a site Alpha 1 on time, on budget, and we have actually started operations as planned and incredibly proud of the project team but also the operational team who has taken this project through mechanical completion commissioning that started earlier this year and into operation during the summer. And we have done so without any serious incidents when it comes to HSC. So that is fantastic achievement, and it's a great foundation for us when we are looking ahead to see future growth plans and potential new projects. And we have this basis of execution in the company. Recapping quickly also the ramp-up of Alpha-1. So we will produce both thorium-228, radium-224, Lead-212 at an increasing level going forward based on the self scaling production process. And following this curve, we will reach about 21,000 patient doses after 3 years of operation, which is equivalent to about NOK 350 million in revenue potential. And the production capacity continues to increase over the next decade, reaching eventually about 60,000 patient doses Okay. Then I will also summarize key financials for the period. So the highlights of this first half of 2026 is still that we continue with initial revenues from the pilot site, selling Lead-212 corporate clinical use, at the same time, keeping a rather lean cost position while we were building Alpha 1. I'm preparing for start-up by accumulating raw materials, which is in its pure form, a rather scarce material and clearly very valuable. So we are coming into second half ready to ramp. Revenues ended at NOK 900,000 for the period. EBITDA at negative NOK 33 million. And profit for the period was negative NOK 56.8 million. While cash flow, negative NOK 120 million reflects the investment done at AlphaOne in addition to the accumulation of raw materials, thorium-232 of more than NOK 40 million at the end of June. So we closed the period with NOK 59.9 million in cash with unused committed credit facilities that is consisting of the Innovation Norway loan as well as working capital facility from DNB at NOK 40 million. And with that, I'd like to give the word back to Jasper to take us through the outlook.

Jasper Kurth

executive
#4

Thank you, Brede. So exciting times. And I would like to take a moment before I speak about the outlook and what we feel is ahead of us to have a little bit of attention internationally. So some of you might know, I'm German, moved to Scandinavia 6 years ago, more than 6 years ago. And I have learned and loved actually how [ Sackersan ] summer is for Scandinavians and how important it is that we have a break. So you've seen that we have opened the plant in July, and we have completed everything before in terms of commissioning. So the team, and not only the Thor Medical team, but the project team, our partners have basically sacrificed their summer for the success that we can see. And I just wanted to highlight to everyone that is listening that none of us in the executive team take this for granted or would have expected this from them. I'm absolutely humbled having worked with the team myself, serving coffee and trying to hold tools or whatever is in my competency level. But seeing this team actually work together and solving issues that necessarily come when you implement a technology that has not been implemented before globally. So that sacrifice. I wanted to highlight to everybody listening that this is something that we don't take for granted, and we are absolutely grateful for and appreciate it deeply. That said, I would like to take you on a little thought experiment in terms of our market uptake. Some of you know Pluvicto is the household name of 1 of the 2 drugs as radioligand therapies that are currently market. Sales last year were around $2 billion, steeply growing. Novartis has announced the patient population that is extended to also hormone-resistant -- sorry, hormone-sensitive prostate cancer patients. So revenue potential is $5 billion-plus peak sales. And we have customers, namely Advanced Cell and Bio that want to compete with this drug and believe that they can replace it. This was the premise on which Advance raised USD 350 million. So if we follow the logic we have asked ourselves, what would this mean a single drug on that level, how many patient doses would that be? And remember, we have an output of 21,000 patient doses of AlphaOne in 3 years. And the team actually came up with a cumulative patient dose of 1.6 million over the course of 10 years and an average of 160,000 patient doses. So basically beating the capacity of AlphaOne by a factor of many. And also, you have to factor in this is output capacity. And 1.6 million doses or 160,000 doses is the input capacity of the clinic that the patient needs at the end of the needle, if you will. So there is inefficiencies in there. There are safety stocks. So you have to produce way more and the safety stocks, of course, are also subject to degradation and radioactive decay. This is why Novartis themselves today have built 0.25 million patient doses capacity for this drug, which is their main drug, but of course, also Lutathera and some upcoming drugs. So we believe the market will be big, and we believe the clinicians and treating physicians will see the beauty of Lead-212 in the clinic. And then when it's approved, it will substitute to a large degree, these marketed products because they're simply better in terms of efficacy and in terms of safety, as we discussed and compared. So just to wrap up operationally and then Brede touched on this. So we have this beautiful process that doesn't require raw materials at one point because we recycle everything that comes in our plant. The flip side is it's a ramp. So we cannot just flick a switch like you would with a nuclear reactor, you build it for 10 years and then you basically switch it on and you produce at capacity. This is not how it works. We have to really build. So we are on a ramp, and we have low thousands of patient doses output as of today, which translates in low double-digit million NOK sales this year. But we basically gradually grow without adding investments to NOK 350 million sales as we have guided after 3 years. And this means actually that our EBITDA also will flip from negative to positive next year. So that's also very good to see that despite having small numbers at this point, we will see an EBITDA breakeven quite soon. And I would like to also take a step back and look at the process once again because I find it really beautiful, especially when you look at the masses involved in the process. So the first separation step, thorium 232 to Radium 228, some of you have seen these huge tanks that we have lifted into the basement of the building that actually touch the ceiling of the next story. So this is for thorium 232 because from 1 metric ton that we take in, we separate out 0.4 milligrams in Radium 228. This is just the first separation step. So this process, as linear as it looks, we can actually take a part of it and make smart investments. So when we build new capacity, I would not believe that we build another AlphaOne. We have 5,000 square meters in Alpha 1. We can maybe do an upsizing of our capacity separating thorium 232 to Radium 228 and then take that small amount and ship it very cost-friendly and very CO2 friendly around the world and have small labs where we have a hotel line to produce from Radium 228 down to Radium-224, Lead-212 and of course, Thorium-228. And with that, of course, increased capacity with dual investments and at the same time, also steer clear of geopolitical challenges, let's put it this way. So also we read the news. And this is just food for thought. These are the things that we discuss, I discuss very openly with the Board of the company. So we are observing closely what the demand is today because we believe we need to anticipate what's coming tomorrow, not today. So we cannot wait until the drug is in the market and then we can say, sorry, we cannot produce your isotope, you have to go elsewhere or you cannot launch the product. We need to give our customers confidence. And another unfortunate example from the Nordics is Novo Nordisk that actually had the golden stone, if you will, with their GLP-1 inhibitor, and they failed to build out capacity in time, and now they're taking over by Eli Lilly any day of the week. And that is a fate that we would like to spare ourselves and spare our customers. So we actively think along those lines with our feet firmly on the ground ramping up AlphaOne. This brings me to my last slide. So I hope over the last 35 minutes or so, we could present the company as what it is, a leading supplier of isotopes for a very important field in radiopharmaceuticals. We see 45 drugs currently in development. This is a growing number, building customer base, more than 10 customers today with a technology that actually was invented some-odd years ago, more than 10 in this company that we have brought into pilot 2 years ago and have now validated. So we establish this small Norwegian company as a global leader in supply. And while it is not a household name when you ask people in the supermarket here in Oslo, it is a household name in international conferences like SNNMI or the European counterpart that is hosted in Vienna this year. So people recognize Brede or Matthias and they recognize the company and they want to do business with us. Our limitation and Brede touched on that, is the half-life of Lead-212 today. So we need to think along the lines of how to make this more accessible and how to allow very brilliant and innovative companies to do research and development with lead to make that pie bigger and actually help more patients. And with that, I'd like to thank you for your attention to the presentation. I would hand over to Matthias, who will walk us through the Q&A session.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#5

Thank you, Jasper. I think we will start with some questions from the online audience. First question is from Jorgen B. What are the next milestones we may monitor over the next 12 months to assess whether the ramp-up is progressing ahead of or behind the plan? And what level of demand in pharma would trigger a decision to expand capacity-wise?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#6

That's a very good question and clearly something that is high up on our agenda. So as I said before, and Brede, COO, can chime in, if necessary, we are on a ramp. So we start at a small scale. We have successfully completed the commissioning, and we are doing the repetitive runs. But of course, we need to take into account that it's small volumes at this point. But what we have said, double-digit -- low double-digit volumes basically guiding for this year. And this is something that we can be measured against if the ramp is successful or not. So far, I can say we are ramping the plant successfully, but it's technology. So there are, of course, risks as always. So we need to deal with that as well.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#7

Next question is from [ Ivarnes. ] Can you give a percentage breakdown of key OpEx cost elements for running AlphaOne, feedstock, material, power, maintenance, people, logistics, et cetera?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#8

I think that's a question for you, Brede.

Brede Ellingsæter

executive
#9

Yes. We will not give specific details on that kind of level. But the main drivers are, of course, feedstock as a raw material, which we -- as you can see in the presentation, we had already front-end loaded. So we were ready to take us through the ramp now this fall. Beyond that, it's operational cost in terms of salary, but we are not expecting any massive increases in salary now. We have built the organization already to be ready to start production. Beyond that, it's operational overheads related to lease contracts, et cetera, which is also already now visible in the current report. So I don't intend to go into any more details about that.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#10

Next question is from Per Nielsen. Today, Tor Medical has a backlog of NOK 850 million. Are there room for more orders with AlphaOne? And if so, how much more can we produce and sell?

Brede Ellingsæter

executive
#11

Sure. Like I said, we have very good visibility on revenues when it comes to sale of thorium 228 for the, let's say, short to medium term. This relates into this fall and into next year. based on committed volumes. This is basically at very close to capacity of thorium 228. That said, any sales of lead 212 and radium 224 is still possible to assume in this same period because that is product that comes on top. We can actually utilize the thorium that we eventually are going to sell. I'm talking about thorium 228 to produce the downstream isotopes, and then we are able to ship both products without cannibalizing any capacity. If you look a bit further ahead, we have always had a clear strategy to firm up the order portfolio for the first period after -- well, while we were building AlphaOne, but also taking it into operation, meaning that the committed capacity short term is very close to capacity, thorium 228 I'm talking about. looking a bit further, there is more opportunities to add more contracts. And this is also a conscious decision because there are still companies out there we have not partnered with yet, and we would like to stay relevant also to them. So I expect that we will -- we still expect that we will be able to sell everything that we can produce, but that we can make new contracts, that is also something that we have considered.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#12

Okay. So final question from the online audience, and I think you touched upon this, Jasper. Is Alpha2 a necessary step? Or could you instead achieve global reach by supplying Thorium-228 and enabling smaller distributed labs to produce PB212 on site, effectively going global through a decentralized network rather than building a second centralized facility.

Jasper Kurth

executive
#13

I must have been a very well-informed investor. That's a good question. And I think you said I said it already. So we believe it will not be a monolithical alpha 2 that sits somewhere in Norway. We have capacity to do upstream in Herøya, and we are very grateful being there. It makes a lot of sense to be in Norway. I think I said that before. But when it comes to downstream, especially short-lived isotopes, it would be foolish not to consider going closer to patients where the majority of our patients are. And as a European, it bleeds my heart, but the truth of the matter is most of the clinical research is done in the U.S. U.S. is the most attractive market. So we have to consider that.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#14

Okay. So let's open the floor for questions from the audience here in Oslo. Any questions? -- to give you the mic.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#15

You mentioned integrated approach of Lead 212 delivery. Could you perhaps elaborate it a bit further? Does that mean that you would potentially load the generator at AlphaOne thorium and ship it to Australia. Then in Australia, they would just add solvent on top of that generator -- and at the bottom, lead-212 would come out. Is that what you are presenting on the slide?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#16

That is one of many different models that are possible. So you can talk about preload generators. You can talk about having a production system in a hot cell somewhere and then supply Thorium-228 as feedstock basically for that production system that sits either at a customer side or in CDMO or in a treatment center even. So it could be many different models that are perceivable. And we are, of course, looking what is best for the company in terms of capital intensity, revenue potential and all the other figures that we need to look at when making decisions.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#17

Okay. But basically, that means vertical integration. You would like to capture higher share of the value chain. Is that?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#18

You can think along those lines, yes.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#19

Could that potentially open doors for recurring revenue? If you're sending out preloaded generators and if your in-house developed generator has higher durability than what -- than generators that are commercially available, let's put it like that, right? Then maybe that could mean, okay, companies would subscribe to a certain amount of radioactivity of lead 212 per year. And then you could play among those lines, supplying them with preloaded generators, getting those generators back, right? And then.

Jasper Kurth

executive
#20

It's a good thought. I cannot comment completely on this, but I can say as an executive team as CEO, our job is to make use of the assets that we have. And our main asset is the people and the knowledge that we have accumulated over the years and the technology that we have. And I think -- if it's only deployed in AlphaOne, we're not making the best use of the technology for the sake of our investors and the patients out there.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#21

I think there were more questions behind you, Kasper. Thank you.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#22

[ George Tjlongbeki ] from ABG Sundal caller. So previously, you have guided for turning cash flow breakeven in 2027, which for Thor Medical indirectly means EBITDA positive as well, somewhat earlier in 2027. Now you specifically state EBITDA positive, turning that in 2027. So the question is, do you still expect to turn cash flow breakeven also in 2027?

Brede Ellingsæter

executive
#23

Yes. That's what we are expecting.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#24

Good to hear that. And secondly, you touched upon this also, Jasper. So the inefficiencies in the chain from supplier to drug producer or patient even, they are evident, maybe 50,000 doses demanded per year, but only 1,000 to 2,000 patients treated. That's obviously positive for Thor Medical. So how much of those inefficiencies do you see as structural, in other words, sticky also yes, both, I'd say, mid- to long term?

Jasper Kurth

executive
#25

Yes. I think that's the gold question, George. because we don't -- we simply don't know for that. It's not a global supply chain. What we can observe is a clinical supply chain that is not commercial, which is highly inefficient. So the amount of isotopes produced today are in the range of 50,000 to 60,000 patient doses for just a couple of maybe hundred patients. So this is highly inefficient. It will be much better when they move into Phase III and then commercial. But right now, there are different competing models out there. So between centralized approach that you just preload enough lead to ship it basically across the U.S. or you have distribution hubs. And then you have to maintain a certain stock of raw materials of thorium in these distribution hubs. So this, of course, also impacts the efficiency of the supply chain. What we can say is today is highly inefficient. It will become much better than that. It has to for the therapy to be reimbursable. -- but it will not be highly efficient. And I can only go back to Novartis. Lutetium is a product that is easier to be shipped than lead is, and they have built capacity today of 250,000 patient doses in the U.S. to serve basically the patient population of peak sales and then some. So this also has to be kept in mind. It will not be a very efficient way of -- it will not be a very efficient supply chain.

Mathias Reierth

executive
#26

Any other questions from the audience? Okay. Thank you for your questions. And also thanks for joining, everyone, joining us today. Have a good weekend.

Jasper Kurth

executive
#27

Thanks for coming, everybody.

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