thyssenkrupp nucera AG & Co. KGaA (NCH2) Q1 FY2026 Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for standing by. This is Hendrik Finger from Investor Relations. I wish you a very warm welcome to thyssenkrupp nucera's joint press and analyst, and Investor conference on the results of the first quarter of our fiscal year '25-'26. We are very pleased that you have taken the time to join us today. Our CEO, Werner Ponikwar; and our CFO, Stefan Hahn, will walk you through the presentation. They will highlight the latest business developments and provide an overview of the financial figures for the past quarter. In the room with us this morning are my colleagues from the Communication and Investor Relations teams as well.

Yes. Thank you, Hendrik. And I would also like to welcome you. My name is Evelin Veit, and I'm here the Head of Communications at thyssenkrupp nucera. So ladies and gentlemen, for the first time, we have decided to hold a joint press and Investor Relations conference. By bringing both audiences together, we create one forum where all questions can be asked and answered at the same time. This makes our communication more efficient and just importantly, more transparent. Everyone has the same information in the same moment with the same context. That is exactly how we want to communicate, open, clear, and accessible to all stakeholders who follow our company. So our German journalists are welcome to submit their questions in German, and we will respond in English and are happy to provide a German translation afterwards.

And before we start the presentation, some additional housekeeping. First of all, this call will be recorded, and a replay will be made available on our website later today. Secondly, today's presentation and potentially some answers to your questions may contain forward-looking statements. For additional information in this regard, please refer to the disclaimer. As usual, the presentation will be followed by a question-and-answer session at this time, as Evelin pointed out, for journalists and analysts, as we are holding a joint conference. We will repeat it again prior to the Q&A session. [Operator Instructions] But with that, I'll hand over to our CEO, Werner Ponikwar, who will be starting the presentation.

Yes. Thank you, Hendrik. Good morning, everyone. It's great to have you with us. As this call takes place only a few weeks after our full-year reporting, I will focus on recent developments and how our business has evolved since then. First of all, let me stress that based on the financial performance in the first quarter and our ongoing performance, we are confirming our full-year financial guidance. In chloralkali, we observed good order momentum, which is expected to translate into rising order intake and could potentially result in a record quarterly order intake in the second quarter of this financial year. The key driver is the new chloralkali electrolyzer contract in the Middle East, which was signed and also announced in December already. In green hydrogen, we continue to execute our existing projects while advancing our pipeline, specifically through a number of engineering contracts good for 1.7 gigawatts of electrolyzer capacity in Europe alone. We remain committed to adding further engineering studies for projects to our portfolio and ultimately to convert them, of course, into electrolyzer supply contracts over the coming months and quarters. In India, we launched a cooperation to accelerate green hydrogen and power-to-X markets with GIZ, a German federal enterprise specializing in international corporation. This strategic partnership further strengthens our position in a priority growth region where we are already a quite strong footprint in the chloralkali sector. Lastly, our financials were in line with expectations. EBIT softness was modest relative to sales decline. Our profitability was supported by an improved project mix and disciplined cost containment, confirming that our underlying margin improvement measures are effectively working through the P&L. So in a nutshell, our project execution remains disciplined, the full year outlook intact, and the commercial funnel is progressing. Let's add some more details about the stage of project execution in both segments. The NEOM Green hydrogen company announced a couple of weeks ago that construction of the green hydrogen plant is 90% complete, which is a significant achievement. And for Stegra, our electrolyzer modules have been handed over, and site works in Boden is progressing as planned. In fact, Stegra pointed out last week that only 10 electrolyzer modules remain to be installed. These projects are undeniably significant milestones for the green hydrogen industry, given the status among the world's largest green hydrogen initiatives. Looking at our major chloralkali projects, including new builds in the U.S., in India, and also in Brazil, it is fair to say that deliveries and also commissioning activities continue reliably and fully in line with customer schedules. Commercially, our pipeline remains solid with around 13 gigawatts of actively pursued opportunities in green hydrogen, which will be displayed in more detail on the next slide. In chloralkali, we do see significant potential for further service and also new build orders. The recently-signed large-scale contract in the Middle East highlights the strong demand for our technology. Overall, we are executing all major projects in a timely and diligent manner and are well-positioned to capitalize on the next wave of growth opportunities. The market for green hydrogen continues to consolidate, and many planned projects are reaching a stage where they are either being approved or finally canceled. This is visible in our project pipeline on Page 7 as well. Our pipeline has been reduced in number of projects and its overall value, but it is also way more focused and healthy than a year ago. It will come as no surprise that the rightsizing in our actively pursued pipeline is closely linked to the developments in the U.S., where the window of opportunities for funded green hydrogen projects will close in January 28, at least temporarily. We dedicate our strongest efforts on projects with a high likelihood of realization, supporting our customers from the initial concept to final investment decision and also execution of the project. This certainly includes the already mentioned projects with a combined capacity of 1.7 gigawatts, for which we are currently executing project engineering. With our engineering work, we have to progress these projects towards FID with the potential to be converted in firm equipment orders of close to EUR 1 billion in the near to midterm. The total pipeline amounts to 55 gigawatts, underscoring the significant market potential, and approximately 13 gigawatts of this relates to projects already at an advanced stage. Our regional pipeline distribution highlights Europe as currently the most attractive market for green hydrogen projects with additional opportunities spread across Australia, the Americas and also in India and the Middle East. Regarding Europe and India, I will share our perspective on the market in more detail on the next slide as well. But to summarize our project pipeline first, we remain confident that we will secure selective wins out of our engineering contracts over the coming quarters. Now I'd like to share some thoughts on the green hydrogen market. We observed momentum building in selective regions, and Europe and India are good examples for that. In Europe, the transposition of the EU directors international law is progressing with drafted implementations clearly indicating that RED III quotas, for example, will drive real demand for green hydrogen in the next years already. This will ultimately result in a significant buildup of production capacity over the coming years, from which we will be benefiting. Estimates for necessary electrolyzer capacity to meet the quotas by 2030 are in the double-digit gigawatt range, representing billions of euros of potential electrolyzer orders. Although only full national transposition will tell the real demand, even a smaller part of the full potential would provide already significant growth opportunities for electrolyzer OEMs. And EU quotas for sustainable aviation and also shipping fuels would offer even more potential. Turning to India. India is one of the world's fastest-growing economies and one of the most promising future markets for Greentech. As outlined in the National Green Hydrogen Mission, India aims to become a global leader in producing, using, and also exporting green hydrogen and its derivatives. The plan includes huge investments in production capacity for green hydrogen based on very substantial renewable energy additions. We have been active in India for decades already in the alkali business, and we will play a role in green hydrogen as well. We do see first projects being implemented, and we are also having promising discussions with potential customers and also partners. And with that, I am pleased to hand over to Stefan for the financial section.

Thank you very much, Werner, and a warm welcome from my side as well. I'm pleased to present the financial developments of the first quarter of our new financial year '25-'26. Ladies and gentlemen, our overall financial performance in the past quarter was in line with our expectations and with our full-year guidance. Despite the decline in quarterly sales, the decrease in EBIT was modest, underscoring our ability to manage costs effectively and navigate periods of market slowdown. Importantly, our financial stability remains solid and unchanged. Let's take a look at the financials displayed here and start on Page 10 with our order intake. In the first quarter, we recorded an order intake of EUR 75 million, which was 21% below the level seen in the prior year. Order intake in the GH2 segment continues to be impacted by project shifts and the overall delayed market ramp-up. Order intake in the chloralkali segment reflects the usual volatility in the project business. In the second quarter, order intake will rise significantly, driven by the new project for a large-scale chloralkali plant in the Middle East. We signed the contract in December, but it was not yet included in Q1 figures. The contract value will now be recorded as order intake in Q2, in line with the fulfillment of further conditions. Order backlog for the group stood at EUR 489 million at the end of December, of which EUR 186 million relates to the GH2 business. The decline compared with the last reporting period is due to further progress in project execution and lower order intake in the GH2 newbuild business. For the above-mentioned reasons, we won't see a further decline in the second quarter of this financial year. Let's continue with our sales development. In the first quarter, sales declined by 44% year-on-year to EUR 147 million. The sales decline was witnessed across both segments and reflects the achieved progress in executing our existing order backlog. In the GH2 segment, sales totaled EUR 77 million, representing a 50% decrease compared with the prior year period. The decline is driven by lower sales from the NEOM project due to the high degree of revenue realization, while the Stegra project in Sweden contributed the largest share to segment sales. In the chloralkali segment, sales amounted to EUR 70 million. The year-on-year decline of 35% is driven by the new build business, while service sales remained on prior year level. It's fair to assume that chloralkali newbuild sales will recover over the next quarters based on recent order intake. Overall, the sales development in our first quarter reflects our progress in project execution and was in line with our expectations and our full-year sales guidance. Moving on to EBIT on Page 13. In the first quarter, group EBIT declined by EUR 12 million to minus EUR 4 million, primarily driven by the lower absolute sales volume in both segments. EBIT in the GH2 segment fell to minus EUR 12 million, while EBIT in the chloralkali segment declined to EUR 8 million. The EBIT development was attributable to some extent also to negative derivative effects of EUR 2 million from raw material hedging. This is a consequence of the unusual high volatility currently seen in raw material prices. If you adjust this one-off item, the operational result would be significantly closer to breakeven. On a positive note, a strong increase in gross margin of 5 percentage points due to an improved project mix partially offset this effect. The same applies to our active cost management, at which we will take a closer look as part of our operating costs on Page 14. Cost of goods sold improved strongly as a percentage of sales, especially supported by a more favorable project mix. To mitigate the knock-on effect of the recent sales decline and cost absorption, we have taken a proactive and disciplined approach to cost containment. Our measures include reducing overtime, cutting back from the use of external services as well as a restrictive hiring policy. In addition, we have adjusted working hours in line with the applicable collective agreements and are increasing the efficiency of our existing infrastructure and digital resources. I'm pleased to report that these actions are already delivering results. This is also reflected in the year-on-year stability of our absolute SG&A expenses and even more evidently in the quarter-on-quarter decline of EUR 4 million compared to the fourth quarter of the previous year. For the second half of this financial year, we also expect a further sequential decline in SG&A. On the other hand, we keep our innovation speed up. Research and development expenses increased as planned, with most of the investment directed to our AWE stack and AWE module development, but also our R&D activities related to the SOEC technology. Moving on to review our development from EBIT to earnings per share on Page 15. Financial income declined by EUR 3 million, primarily reflecting lower income from lower interest rates. Income taxes totaled minus EUR 1 million. As a result, net income declined to minus EUR 3 million from EUR 9 million in the previous year. Earnings per share decreased accordingly to minus EUR 0.02 per share. Cash flow from operating activities declined to EUR 1 million in the first quarter. In addition to lower earnings, the decrease was primarily driven by cash outflows related to reductions in trade payables and contract liabilities. These effects were partially offset by cash inflows from reduction in inventories and trade receivables. Cash flow from investing activities was roughly stable at minus EUR 6 million. Overall, this resulted in a slightly negative free cash flow of minus EUR 5 million, which leads to a slight decrease of cash and cash equivalents to EUR 677 million. Deducting gross financial debt of EUR 29 million, which reflects long-term leasing contracts, net financial assets totaled EUR 648 million, which is unchanged at a very comfortable and high level. Our focus remains firmly on cost control and balance sheet preservation. Lastly, let me reiterate our outlook for fiscal year '25, '26, which remains unchanged. At group level, we expect order intake in the range of EUR 350 million to EUR 900 million, driven primarily by major new build projects in both segments and robust demand in the chloralkali service business. Our group sales for group sales, we expect EUR 500 million to EUR 600 million, largely supported by projects already under contract. At segment level, we anticipate GH2 sales of EUR 150 million to EUR 220 million and chloralkali sales of EUR 320 million to EUR. For group EBIT, we expect a range of minus EUR 30 million to EUR 0 million in fiscal year '25, '26. EBIT in the GH2 segment is expected to come in between minus EUR 80 million and minus EUR 55 million, while the chloralkali segment is expected to deliver between EUR 40 million and EUR 65 million. With that, I will hand back to Werner, who will wrap up today's presentation.

Thank you, Stefan. Ladies and gentlemen, let me conclude today's presentation by reiterating our key messages. Our first quarter performance demonstrates resilience and disciplined execution in a challenging market environment. We are delivering financial results in line with expectations while positioning the company to capture the next wave of growth. With a strong foothold in chloralkali and new momentum in large-scale green hydrogen, we see tangible opportunities ahead. Our continued focus on technology and innovation strengthens our competitive position and our robust project pipeline, including 1.7 gigawatts of engineering work with a clear conversion potential. We remain fully focused on disciplined project execution, cost control, and value creation, and delivering sustainable growth for our shareholders. And that concludes our presentation. Thank you for your attention, and we are now ready to take your questions. Hendrik, over to you.

Thanks, Werner. [Operator Instructions] The first question today comes from Michael Kuhn Deutsche Bank.

Starting with the project pipeline, you said that, let's say, the U.S. was the main reason for the shrinkage of the pipeline. Is there still any projects in the U.S. that you are pursuing for now? Or is that -- has that basically dropped to 0?

Michael, this is Werner. Just a quick answer to that there are only a few left in our pipeline, let's put it that way, that we are still pursuing. These are typically projects which do not require funding and are geared towards exporting their products finally to Japan and South Korea, for example.

Then on the conversion of the 1.7 gigawatts of engineering contracts, you say near to midterm. Would you be able to define that a little precisely?

I mean, unfortunately, that's certainly very much depending on our customers rather than ourselves when they are ready to take FID. And there's a lot of, I would say, framing parameters that certainly have an influence on that. But to put it that way, there are, I would say, quite some projects actually where we would expect over the next weeks to months that they could take FID, but there's also projects in this portfolio, which might come a little bit later, so maybe a couple of quarters.

And then on India, I mean, you have been there for a little while. Now you have signed the cooperation with GIZ. Would you expect that to speed up things? And sorry to stick with that time line issue, but would you be willing to roughly frame what time frames you would expect for India until projects might be realized?

Yes, happy to try as good as I can because, again, also here, it's very much depending on how customers are progressing their projects. But one thing is actually for sure, I mean, we've also tried to sketch out a little bit that the ambitions in India and also, I would say, the governmental support is quite significant, which is certainly are good drivers for the market. However, what we see as well is, of course, that with these ambitions, there's a lot of also ambitions when it comes to establishing projects. And I would believe that not all of what has been now announced will finally also reach FID. There has been a number of projects that are already moving towards implementation, but I would say the vast majority will still take a while. So in terms of timeline, I would not expect that there will be a lot of FIDs taken within the next month and quarter in India. But in the sort of near to midterm, so meaning towards the end of this calendar year, beginning of next year, we could potentially see already the first positive signals coming out of the Indian market. Again, it's for them a bit more early stage also in terms of their development than, for example, in Europe, where green hydrogen is discussed for and back and regulated up and down for many years now. That's certainly also a development that needs to happen in India to a certain extent, and that will certainly also determine to a certain extent, the timelines of projects being progressed right now.

And then very last question on CapEx, broadly flattish year-over-year, around EUR 6 million, EUR 7 million. Is that something that we should also expect for the upcoming quarters?

I think that will be pretty much the range we will see in the next quarters as well. It's a good reference. And it's mainly capitalized immaterial goods. And for that reason, it will be in the similar range.

The next question comes from Klaus Ringel with ODDO.

I actually would be interested looking at your full-year guidance parameters for the group in terms of order intake, sales, and also on EBIT, and looking at your Q1 performance. And the question would be, if you could share some flavor where you're seeing yourself within these ranges. I mean, order intake is a rather broad range, while sales and, yes, EBIT is maybe a bit nearer. It would be great if you could give some color here.

Sure. So starting with order intake, as you said, it's broad. And of course, it's, as always in our business, highly dependent on order intake of larger new build projects. I think here, the lower range is slowly would mean we would have only chloralkali service orders. I think it's quite likely that this is a very conservative figure, the EUR 350 million, we were able to sign the bigger chloralkali order in December already. So it's very likely that we will be above that. The EUR 900 million will only be reached if larger newbuild orders in GH2 are realized. And that might give you a better perspective of that range. Regarding sales for chloralkali, as I already mentioned, as we've signed this big new build contract in chloralkali in December, it's quite likely that for the sales range, we will touch the upper half of that range with that order now being effective. So here, we are rather tending towards the upper range. For the GH2 sales, the lower range, EUR 150 million would mean that we mainly work on the order backlog. The upper range would be reached if new bigger new build orders are realized in that segment. It's typical for our business. Once we sign bigger orders, it takes a while until they have a significant contribution on sales. And for that reason, even if we sign bigger orders now, they wouldn't have a very significant effect in this fiscal year. And for that reason, this range is not as broad. I hope that answers your question.

Yes. Perfect. Just one question on maybe potential future unfolding of further efficiencies or cost savings. Is there something material to come that we should keep in mind, which will also have an impact on the EBIT?

Yes. I mean for this year, I think we are well set with our cost measures. And during our presentation, you heard they do not yet even have full effect. The reduction of working hours will be fully effective starting in Q1. So we will see the full effect starting in Q3 of the measures. And with that, we are on the right path. And for our current order intake assumptions, the measures are well set. And of course, it will be dependent on further order intake how we proceed with that.

Next in line is Marco Cristofori with Intesa.

Is on the conversion potential of this large 1.7 gigawatt order. You said EUR 1 billion roughly, and this is anyway above your guidance. So there's something I'm missing here. And second thing also on this order, I guess it would translate into revenues after some months. So if you would be able to get the order, you would see an impact on revenues on the top line, let's say, from second half of 2027. And so I mean, my question mark is if you are going to do some, let's say, restructuring at green hydrogen, given that the potential revenues would come only after 18 months, or you are going to keep your structure, your industrial framework as it is?

Marco, this is Werner. I'm happy to take and answer your question. So just to clarify, the 1.7 gigawatts in terms of engineering works that we are currently providing to clients is for more than just one project. So it's a small number of projects, actually. Some of them are a bit larger, some of them are a bit smaller, which we are currently intensively driving forward the engineering work for that. So that means that it will not be in one go, 1.7 gigawatts. So these are projects that will come in different points in time if they take FID. Again, as also mentioned already earlier, we believe some of them could -- are quite tangible, I'd say, could be converted in the next months. Others may take somewhat longer. And that is sort of also how they would finally contribute to our top line. And you are, of course, absolutely right here. This regardless of whether we're going to sign something tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, and we will be able to realize order intake that will only have a limited effect for this fiscal year's top line. Most of that will certainly be then realized over the next couple of years. And that certainly, as you also rightfully said, means that we cannot, I would say, reduce our structure in terms of our cost-saving measures because we are confident that we will have to utilize our existing structure going forward once these projects are kicking in. And this is why the cost containment measures that we have currently implemented are all reversible. So they basically can very quickly also be lifted and turned around. And we were very carefully selecting them to preserve our existing resource structure and have enough resources available for the time where these projects that were mentioned are kicking in, and we need to spend a lot of engineering hours on those.

Okay. And if they would not come, that's a big question mark, I guess, for the management in thyssenkrupp .

Of course, I mean, if they would not come, then we will certainly have to see what we need to do in terms of additional cost measures. Then the -- I would say, the dip in terms of growth would be then larger than we would all expect from today's perspective. And that's certainly something that we will decide once we see clearer on if that is a possibility at all. From today's perspective, we feel quite comfortable that this will not be an option. So we will see order intake coming in again. And with that, basically, I think that the measures that we have that we are taking are the right ones for this year, and again, are reversible, which makes a lot of sense in a situation where you potentially see new orders coming in quite quickly.

[Operator Instructions] And with that, next in line is Skye Landon from Rothschild.

Just on green hydrogen, I was just wondering if you could share anything around the potential of winning any major Middle Eastern projects, given some awards have been made to the supply chain for a 4-gigawatt project. So I was wondering what's nucera's chance of picking up all or some of the electrolyzer volume, which has not yet been announced? Just any detail on that would be great.

Yes. Of course, you can -- I mean, you know that we are well-positioned currently in the Middle East, in particular in Saudi Arabia, with our new projects, where we are currently in the final stage of delivering the equipment and moving towards pre-commissioning and commissioning. And with that, certainly, we have already quite a strong reference in the market. Is that a guarantee for getting now the next big orders? It's certainly not, but it's, of course, a good reference, let's put it that way. And we are, of course, as you can imagine, in quite active discussions with potential clients in the region and also in particular in Saudi Arabia for the next larger projects. But again, that's certainly something that we will be happy to report on if and once they are substantiating.

There seems to be no more questions at this point in time. For that reason, I hand over to Werner one last time, and he will conclude today's call.

Yes. Thank you, everyone, for joining for this call. If you have more questions during the day, then, of course, feel free to reach out to our communications and also our Investor Relations team. And with that, let me say goodbye and all the best, and thank you for joining.