Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. ($507205)
Earnings Call Transcript · May 30, 2026
Highlights from the call
In the fourth quarter of FY '26, Tilaknagar Industries Ltd. reported significant growth, with overall volumes increasing by 135% year-on-year and net revenue reaching INR 949 crores, marking a 148% increase. The company also highlighted a strategic shift in revenue recognition that will impact reported revenue but improve EBITDA margins. Management provided guidance for FY '27, expecting high-single-digit to low-double-digit volume growth and EBITDA margins of 16% to 18% over the next 24 to 36 months, signaling confidence in future performance despite ongoing geopolitical challenges.
Main topics
- Volume Growth: Tilaknagar achieved a remarkable 135% year-on-year increase in overall volumes during Q4 FY '26, reaching over 8 million cases. Management stated, 'we achieved a volume of almost 20 million cases in FY '26 with only 4 months of Imperial Blue business under our ownership.'
- Revenue Recognition Change: The company announced a change in revenue recognition that will reduce reported revenue but enhance EBITDA margins. This change is expected to have a 'negative impact on reported revenue and gross margins, but will have a positive impact on EBITDA margins and PAT margins.'
- Financial Performance: Net revenue for Q4 FY '26 was INR 949 crores, up 148% year-on-year, while EBITDA grew by 97% to INR 155 crores, with a margin of 16.3%. For the full year, revenues grew by 70% to INR 2,346 crores.
- Capacity Expansion: Tilaknagar expanded its capacity in Andhra Pradesh from 6 lakh to 36 lakh cases per annum, which is expected to save INR 10 crores annually in bottling costs. This expansion is seen as a 'testament to Tilaknagar's push towards safeguarding supplies.'
- Management Guidance: For FY '27, management expects high-single-digit to low-double-digit volume growth and EBITDA margins of 16% to 18%. They also reiterated the goal to reduce net debt-to-EBITDA below 1 by FY '29.
Key metrics mentioned
- Net Revenue: INR 949 crores (up 148% YoY)
- EBITDA: INR 155 crores (up 97% YoY, 16.3% margin)
- Annual Revenue: INR 2,346 crores (up 70% YoY)
- Capacity Expansion: 36 lakh cases per annum (increased from 6 lakh cases)
- Net Debt: INR 1,911 crores (expected to reduce below INR 1,700 crores by March '27)
- Dividend: INR 1 per share (recommended for FY '26)
Tilaknagar Industries is positioned for strong growth following the integration of Imperial Blue, with significant volume increases and strategic capacity expansions. However, geopolitical challenges pose risks to margin stability. Investors should monitor the execution of management's guidance and the impact of cost optimizations on profitability.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the Tilaknagar Industries Limited's Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this call is being recorded. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Siddharth Rangnekar from CDR India. Thank you, and over to you, sir.
Siddharth Rangnekar
AttendeesThank you. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us on Tilaknagar Industries Limited's Quarter 4 and FY '26 Earnings Conference Call. We are joined today by Chairman and Managing Director, Mr. Amit Dahanukar; Chief Strategy Officer, Mr. Ameya Deshpande; Chief Financial Officer of the company, Mr. Rajesh Choudhary; and General Manager, Innovation -- Growth and Innovation, Ms. Sanaya Dahanukar. We shall commence with views from Mr. Dahanukar on the performance and financial highlights, followed by a brief commentary from Mr. Deshpande on the strategy going ahead. This shall be followed by an interactive question-and-answer session. Before we commence, I would like to state that certain statements made on today's call could be forward-looking in nature, and a disclaimer to this effect has been included in the results presentation that was shared with you earlier and which is also available on the stock exchange website. I would now like to request Mr. Dahanukar to make his opening remarks. Over to you, sir.
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesGood morning, everyone. Happy to have you all join us on this earnings call to discuss the quarter 4 FY '26 and full year FY '26 results. This is the first full quarter where we will report on the performance of Imperial Blue business division. I will provide an update on the current quarter's performance, which will be followed by Ameya taking you through the integration of Imperial Blue. Before I begin with the quarterly performance, there are 2 achievements I wanted to highlight. One, we achieved a volume of almost 20 million cases in FY '26 with only 4 months of Imperial Blue business under our ownership. Second, Mansion House Brandy crossed the volume benchmark of 10 million cases in FY '26, cementing its position as India's largest P&A brandy. In FY '26, our overall volumes increased by 68%. Ex IB, our volumes increased by 14% to reach 13.6 million cases in sales. During quarter 4, our overall volumes increased by 135% on a year-on-year basis, crossing 8 million cases, of which IB was 4.6 million cases. Ex Maharashtra, IB recorded a growth of around 9% versus quarter 4 FY '25. With this impressive performance, TI continues to be largest P&A IMFL player in Southern India with a market share of close to 40% in quarter 4 FY '26. On the policy front, we have seen one of the largest states witnessing a progressive change in excise policy, which has reduced the consumer price of our 2 flagship brands, Imperial Blue Whiskey and Mansion House Brandy by INR 20 per nip. Basis what we saw in FY '25 with price reductions, we are expecting further growth in the state. Before I start on the financial performance, I want to touch upon the recent change in presentation disclosure with respect to revenue recognition. Before the acquisition of the Imperial Blue business, we used to present the selling expenses such as discounts, schemes and similar incentives to customers and distributors under the head of other expenses. However, quarter 4 FY '26 and going forward, we will show this as a reduction from the gross revenue itself. As the business has now expanded significantly into noncorporation markets as well, management has now taken the view to update the presentation disclosure in line with future prospects and better comparability with peers. This change will have a negative impact on reported revenue and gross margins, but will have a positive impact on EBITDA margins and PAT margins. There will be no impact on absolute EBITDA, PAT or reported EPS. Now moving over to financial performance. The overall NSR increased by 5.4% to INR 1,177 per case for quarter 4 FY '26 from INR 1,116 per case in quarter 4 FY '25. On an ex IB basis, the NSR increased by 2.6% in quarter 4 FY '26. For the year ended 31st March, the NSR stood at INR 1,165 per case. We witnessed a strong growth of 148% year-on-year basis to reach a net revenue of INR 949 crores during the quarter. Adjusted for subsidy, we recorded a growth of 154% to reach INR 941 crores. EBITDA stood at INR 155 crores for quarter 4 FY '26, clocking a growth of 97% year-on-year and margin of 16.3%. Adjusted for subsidy, the EBITDA grew by 124% to reach INR 146 crores and a 15.5% margin on the combined business. For the year ending March '26, our revenues grew by 70% versus FY '25 to reach INR 2,346 crores. Adjusted for subsidy, we clocked a growth of 69% to reach INR 2,279 crores. In the same period, EBITDA grew by 64% to reach INR 419 crores. Adjusted for subsidy, the EBITDA was INR 352 crores, a 56% increase versus FY '25. We incurred an exceptional expense to the tune of INR 60 crores during quarter 4 FY '26, predominantly on account of TSMA fees and impact of changes in labor code. I now wanted to reiterate that our focus going forward will be divided into 4 parts: first, continue our journey to generate and fulfill demand for our brands to deliver double-digit volume growth; second, optimize packaging, processes and supply chain and reap benefits of operating leverage and economies of scale to help us achieve an EBITDA margin of 16% to 18% on combined business; third, focus on efficient capital deployment, disciplined debt management and working capital investments, facilitating the reduction of net debt-to-EBITDA below 1 by FY '29; and fourth, ride on the pan-India distribution strength of Imperial Blue and Mansion House to expand TI's luxury and premium portfolio, including Spaceman Spirits. On the supply front, we have received the government nod for starting operations at our expanded capacity at Prag in Andhra Pradesh, one of the largest states for Tilaknagar Industries. The capacity has now increased from 6 lakh cases per annum to 36 lakh cases per annum. This expansion is a testament to Tilaknagar's push towards safeguarding supplies and demonstrating execution capabilities towards long-term capacity planning. On the back of this expansion, TI expects savings in bottling costs to the tune of INR 10 crores per annum. This expansion entailed an investment of around INR 60 crores, which has been fully invested. As on 31st March 2026, our gross debt stood at INR 2,295 crores and net debt stood at INR 1,911 crores. Lastly, the Board of Directors have recommended a dividend of INR 1 per share for FY '25, '26 to the members at the ensuing Annual General Meeting. I will now hand over to Ameya to take you through the integration of Imperial Blue and provide guidance on the future performance.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesThank you, and a very warm welcome to everyone joining us today. On the post-acquisition integration front, we are in the midst of a highly operations-heavy transition. Also, as mentioned earlier, we had taken TSMA support services from Pernod Ricard, while the labels under TI name were being registered. In the Q3 earnings call, we had mentioned that TI will exit significant operations under TI belt by end of Q4 FY '26, and we have delivered on that. 75% of the IB business has exited TSMA by end of Q4 FY '26. For the states where we have exited TSMA in Q4 FY '26, we have already started full-fledged operations at TI units. Now only 3 states remain under TSMA, and we expect to transition them over the course of the next few quarters with an outer date of March '27. After the exit of TSMA in some of the states in Q4, we faced small business disruptions in the first couple of weeks of April. However, the team has done a commendable job in delivering record volumes in the month of May for Imperial Blue under TI ownership. On the margin front, because of the current ongoing geopolitical scenario, we do expect some pressure on the input costs and margins. To combat this, we have identified and are working on several areas of cost optimizations, which will mitigate the impact of this increase in raw material prices. With regards to our team readiness for a life post acquisition, during the last few months, we have onboarded several senior leaders as well as built a pan-India team to manage operations. We now have a fully built team to deliver continued success, having increased our workforce from around 350 employees to 850 employees as of March. Our strategy to lead the premiumization trend is anchored by a dual engine, the strength of our existing portfolio and a robust NPD pipeline. This is further accelerated by our partnership with Spaceman Spirits Lab, which positions us to capture the market through targeted luxury launches. I would now like to take some time to provide some guidance on the combined business going forward. For FY '27, we expect to achieve a high-single-digit to low-double-digit volume growth for the combined business, which will be followed by a double-digit volume growth over the next couple of years. We expect a double-digit volume CAGR over the next 3 years. In terms of margins, we expect the consolidated EBITDA margins to reach 16% to 18% for the combined business over the next 24 to 36 months. The positive change in guidance also includes the change in the presentation and disclosure of selling expenses, which Mr. Dahanukar had spoken about earlier. As guided in the past as well, we expect the net debt-to-EBITDA ratio to go below 1x by FY '29. With that, I would now request the operator to open the call for Q&A.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Chetan with Systematix Group.
Chetan Mahadik
AnalystsA few questions. Firstly, I wanted to understand what led to the flattish volume growth in Q4 for our ex IB business? And for Imperial Blue, if you can tell us about the seasonality in the business, like which are the strongest quarters, which are the weak ones for IB?
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesSo one of the reasons is that quarter 4 last year in Andhra, it was very high because the route to market has just recently changed in October, November of the previous year of '24, the route to market has changed, which led to sales of Andhra Pradesh being very high in quarter 4. So that was predominantly the reason. But on a secondary basis, if you see our business has grown by around 5%, the existing business.
Chetan Mahadik
AnalystsOkay. And on the Imperial Blue front, if you can highlight about the seasonality in the business, like which are the strong quarters for you?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo Chetan, unlike the TI business where Q1 is significantly weaker, and that's very visible in the numbers, IB is slightly more, what do you say, equally distributed, right, among the quarters. Having said so, H2 does form around 52% -- 51% to 52% of the volumes. So you will see some seasonality coming in for IB as well.
Chetan Mahadik
AnalystsOkay. Got it. And my last question is on margin. So say, we are expecting around 250 to 400 basis points in margin expansion on the acquired business in the next 2 years. So how much of this should be from the custom duty reduction on scotch imports and say, how much from the operational or strategic initiatives?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So see, the thing is any reduction in custom duty, right, keeping price action aside that we ourselves may or may not take will have no impact on the margins as such, right? That will have a direct impact on the MRP, but not on our revenues or our cost structures. So from that perspective, custom duty change on account of the potential U.K. FTA does not have any impact on our margins, right? Now predominantly, what this is the expansion in the EBITDA margins is predominantly on account of the cost optimizations on the acquired business of IB, right? Along with that, there are certain cost optimizations that we are also undertaking for the combined business for the TI erstwhile business that's there, especially on the supply chain side. Along with that, obviously, you have the U.K. FTA benefit that will kick in over here, which will have an impact. We will also have a couple of states where we could have a potential price increase, right? Telangana being one of them. But obviously, time lines and all are not known on that front. But given how large Telangana is for us as a state, it will have a reasonable impact on margins.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Mehul Desai with JM Financial.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsFirstly, just wanted to understand on how are you looking at run rate for Imperial Blue given that there is the Maharashtra impact, which might continue for 1 or 2 quarters and Karnataka, there is a benefit that can come, right? So some guidance on how do you look at IB volume growth? And how do you look at base business volume growth in your -- this overall guidance of high-single-digit to low-double-digit kind of volume growth for FY '27?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So I think in terms of IB, Maharashtra, a great part of it is already set in the base, right, of FY '26. So going forward, we do expect to grow at a similar clip, if not better than the combined business. Between the 2, which is the erstwhile TI business and the IB business, you're looking at somewhat similar levels of growth. IB business potentially will grow slightly faster than the erstwhile business, probably on account of a lower base of FY '26.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsGot it. And can you help me with what was the NSR for IB in this quarter because there is a change in treatment. You had given the number of some INR 1,300 in last -- in Q3. Can you give this number for 4Q?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo we are -- to be very frank, we are not giving an NSR segregation on a brand-wise basis, right? This was given in Q3 more from the perspective of giving visibility on modeling out the business plan, right? But we are not giving a separate number as such. But if you actually look at it, you're looking at somewhere around, let's say, under the new net of schemes, you can consider it to be approximately INR 20 to INR 30 above your existing combined NSR that we've reported.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsOkay. Got it. And lastly, from -- how should one look at gross debt and CapEx over FY '27, '28?
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesSo CapEx, I think, will be maintenance CapEx for both the years. I don't think CapEx will be large. Approximately, we can take INR 25 crores in each of the years.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsOkay. And on gross debt?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesAnd on the debt side, see, the way I would look at this is, as we mentioned earlier as well, that we have a moratorium of 2 years, right? So gross debt may not be the best way to look at this. Maybe net debt is the way that you should look at it. But basically, by the end of March '27, you're looking at a net debt of approximately INR 1,700 crores or thereabouts. So you will see a reduction in the net debt with an upside bias to some extent.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsGot it. And this TSMA charges, you think by -- I mean, in FY -- now, I think only 25% of this business is left to be exited. What are the time lines where you think this can also go for full transition?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo see, we have, like we mentioned, 3 states which are under TSMA right now. In all likelihood, there will be only 1 state which will continue in TSMA into the second half of this financial year, right? It is something that we have guided earlier as well. But basically, you can consider TSMA fees to be decreasing quarter-on-quarter with a full year impact of, let's call it, anywhere between INR 55 crores to INR 60 crores for the entire...
Mehul Desai
AnalystsOkay. And lastly -- sorry, INR 50 crores, you said, right?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesAround INR 55 crores to INR 60 crores for the entire year.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsFor the entire year. And just, obviously, given that you did highlight that you have invested behind building the team, this 4Q run rate of INR 43 crores of staff cost, is this more a steady-state run rate that one can look at from a staff cost perspective?
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesYes, that would be correct.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of Heer Gogri with Choice Equities.
Heer Gogri
AnalystsI wanted to understand, are we going to incur any further costs related to Imperial Blue? Do we have any plans there? Or are we all set in?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo Heer, there, as we mentioned in the earlier presentations as well, after 4 years of the acquisition, there will be a deferred consideration. There's a deferred consideration of EUR 28 million that we need to pay to Pernod Ricard. But apart from that, there are no other costs that are to be incurred.
Heer Gogri
AnalystsOkay. Got it. And also on the portfolio front, I think we are looking at new P&A launches as well. Any highlights that you can give on that?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo Heer, I think a little premature for that one. For the moment, our focus very much lies in transitioning IB business into TI as a whole. We see tremendous potential for the combined business as it stands today. Having said so, yes, we are -- we have an NPD pipeline in place. And hopefully, we'll be in a position to speak a bit more about that in the quarters to come. We also have the luxury business, right, which is something of immense importance for us, right? We've built a team very recently for that. Sanaya looks at that part of the business and leads that from TI's perspective as well. So frankly, loads of ambitions over there as well. But like I mentioned earlier, we'll give further details on that as time progresses.
Heer Gogri
AnalystsGot it. And one last question from my side would be any comments on the Telangana dues [indiscernible]?
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesSo Telangana dues from January onwards, they've been stable in terms of number of days. There has been no deterioration in the situation since January, but we are actively working with the government authorities to try and reduce the number of days of outstanding.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from the line of [ Ripin ] Mittal with JSL Ventures.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsMy question is with premium vodka gaining traction in India, does the company have any plans to launch a new vodka brand or expand its existing vodka portfolio?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo as a part of our future strategic initiatives in terms of new launches as well, right? Yes, there are certain categories that we are looking at. But as it stands, I would refrain from talking about any new brands that we launched. But having said so, we do have a brand in the form of Amara Vodka, which is a part of the SSL portfolio. And we do see tremendous value in that portfolio as well. And with our usership arrangement kicking in towards the latter part of last year, you should be seeing some level of traction coming out of that into our books as well.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSir, one more question. What are the 3 states remaining under the TSMA?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesWe won't disclose that, okay? Yes.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Karan Kamdar with Choice Institutional Equities.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsCongrats on the integration progressing well at 75%. So my question is related to like the run rate for Imperial Blue, roughly around INR 2,500 crores is what we are getting for the full year based on existing realizations and volumes that we've done in Q4. Would that be a correct way to look at it?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSorry, could you repeat that question?
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsSo we did about 4.6 million cases in Q4, right? So given that into 4 and the current realization of INR 1,300, we would do about INR 2,400 crores of revenue on an annual basis. Is that a correct run rate to pitch IB business at for the next like, let's say, 1 year until this full integration is complete?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So the only thing is, as I mentioned, the NSR now with the change in the accounting needs to be adjusted accordingly, right? And you'll arrive at the right -- you're on the right track just that you need to change the NSR per case.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsSo -- okay, NSR that would be on the higher side, right? Because if you exclude discounts, it will come a little bit lower, right, maybe 5%, 10-odd percent.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesThat's right. Yes.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsOkay. Okay. Got it. Sir, so when are we expecting like this full integration to complete '28 onwards? Or will -- is it likely to get delayed from that? What would be the challenge like it to get delayed?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So I don't think it will go into '28. We would be transitioned by end of FY '27 itself. I don't see any reason for any kind of delays on that front.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsOkay, sir. Got it. Got it. Sir, on the qualification that we've been receiving, so my understanding was that, that is related to the craft distillery. Is that not correct? Like when we do the investment that we did this year, will that not resolve it? Or would it -- is it about some other distillery?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So this relates to the Shrirampur distillery. It's not a craft distillery. This relates to the ENA distillery that we have in Shrirampur.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsGot it, sir. And any plans on when we would be doing this investment this year, next year?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo it's under consideration, right? We will take a call at the appropriate time in terms of recommissioning of the distillery.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsGot it, sir. Got it. And sir, one last question I have is on the synergies between 2 business. So when do you expect those to kick in? Like when can we expect Samsara to sort of benefit from this IB merger and nationwide presence say '27, '28, how do you see that kind of synergy picture?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo see, the SSL synergies have already kicked in, right? So we've already started the usership arrangement and so on and so forth. And as and when that takes further shape, you will see a good amount of cross linkages in terms of our TI organic luxury portfolio and super premium portfolio along with the SSL portfolio. But the bigger synergies also lie in the Imperial Blue acquisition, right, and the post stage of that. Now what we have already started seeing is that from Day 1 of acquisition itself, you have seen optimizations taking place on the employee cost front, given that we already had a team for the southern part of the country, a little bit of East and Northeast and obviously, the -- on the corporate side. Along with that, there will be multiple optimization initiatives that we are running on the supply chain side as well, whether it is to do with bottling. Let's remember that Pernod -- IB was a Pernod brand, right? And Pernod had bottling units, which, to a great extent, many a times were dedicated for themselves, right, where all kinds of brands used to get done. So you will see kind of benefits coming out of bottling charges. You will also see other supply chain benefits on account of packaging as well as other general and admin overheads, which would be at a much lower end at TI. Along with that, you will also have revenue synergies that will start kicking in FY '27 onwards in the form of erstwhile TI brands as well as new brands getting launched in states where we weren't present to begin with. And for that matter, even IB being launched in states where they were not present in, especially a couple of regions, right? So multiple revenue synergies to also kick in, in FY '27.
Karan Kamdar
AnalystsGot it, sir. Sir, if I can squeeze in one last question on margins. Very ambitious margins and 16% to 18% guidance. Can you sort of give us a path to that number from current, let's say, 14%, 15%?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So as you would see in Q4, we've already done 15.5%. For the whole of FY '26, we've done 15.5%. So I don't see a reason to start at a base of 14% firstly. I would use 15.5% as the base on our guidance. Now with regards to how is it that we are achieving this, obviously, on the lower end of our range of the guidance, you're looking at a 50 basis points improvement. This has purely been kept from the perspective of the current geopolitical tensions that exist, right? So any kind of inflationary impact is going to be taken care of at the low end of our -- lower range of our guidance. As we go towards the higher end, obviously, everything that I've spoken about earlier on this call as well as in our past interactions will come to fruit, whether it is in the form of cost optimizations, whether it is in the form of just operating leverage, right, on account of growth as well as certain other factors like price increases.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Mehul Desai with JM Financial.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsJust on this margin thing, you said 15.5% or the lower end of the guidance. I mean, even in the case of RM inflation or the current crisis, you'll be able to at least sustain the lower end of your guidance, right, as a base for maybe FY '27. Is that a correct understanding?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo Mehul, from a full year perspective, yes. However, if we start talking about quarter-on-quarter basis, see, we are already into almost the third month of the quarter, right? And we have faced certain input cost inflations in Q1. So in Q1, I don't think -- I mean it will be incorrect of me to say that we will expand on these margins, right? You may see some level of short-term impact. But in a full year perspective and going forward, you should go with the guidance that we've provided.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsRight. And this guidance includes U.K. FTA benefit, right?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. The upper end of the guidance, Mehul, includes U.K. FTA benefit.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsAnd the upper end also includes anything from Telangana price hike?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesTo some extent, it does, right? But I would like to surprise you with a higher margin.
Mehul Desai
AnalystsGreat. That's good to hear. Sorry, one last question. On working capital, how should one look at inventory days and receivable days? I mean just some guidance on working capital given that FY '27 will be a full year with both IB and base business being there.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesYes. So I think on an ongoing basis, Mehul, we can look at the working capital cycle in the range of 53 to 55 days of gross revenue, right? So that is the way I would look at it.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Chetan with Systematix Group.
Chetan Mahadik
AnalystsJust wanted to ask on the Nigeria subsidiary where we will be doing an investment of up to INR 30 crores. So like what is the strategic rationale behind this? And if you can highlight what is the addressable volume opportunity we are looking out there?
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesOkay. So we have an existing business in Nigeria for around 2.5 lakh cases, and that is what we see the opportunity there.
Chetan Mahadik
AnalystsOkay. Okay. Good.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesIt's a fairly decent business there. And Pernod had invested over a couple of years, and it's a sustainable business in Nigeria.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Raghav Rathi with Quadrum Holdings.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo we have earlier indicated that Imperial Blue will do around INR 2,200 crores of business. But when we had taken it over, it was doing around INR 3,300 crores. So when will we reach that normalcy in the Imperial Blue business? And when can we see a consolidated business of INR 5,000 crores plus along with our brandy and Imperial Blue inclusive.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo I think let me just clarify. In terms of our FY '27 numbers, right, I think you will see us exceeding what we acquired the business at in FY '25. I think there's some issue with the calculation because the Imperial Blue business would have done approximately on a pro forma basis, somewhere around 21 million to 21.5 million cases for this. So you are arriving at a much higher number than the INR 2,000 crores that you are referring to. But needless to say, just reiterating that FY '27 will be a bigger business than what we acquired the business at in terms of FY '25 being the base.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo we should be able to do a revenue of more than INR 5,000 crores, including our brandy business?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesAgain, it comes down to the change in the accounting, right? Had I stuck on with the original accounting of not deducting the selling costs, right? Yes, we would have. But now that we are deducting it, it will be lesser than INR 5,000 crores.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAnd what does the selling cost come to in percentage?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo see, the thing is that we are not explicitly sharing that number. Having said so, you will be able to calculate it on the back of Q3 numbers since we have in the past, given a Q3 grossed up number as well, right? Basis that number, you will arrive at a percentage of anywhere between 6% to 6.5% of grossed up revenue.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Venkatesh T with Alpha Trade.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsMy question is regarding the recent policy changes in Karnataka. What will be that effect to the IB brand and for the Tilaknagar Industries?
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesSo as I had mentioned in my opening remarks, we expect an MRP reduction of approximately INR 20 on both the flagship brands, Imperial Blue and Mansion House on the 180 ml pack size. So with the reduction in the MRP, we may expect a further uptake in the volumes going forward.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesAnd just to give some kind of reference point, right, in terms of growth and all, the last time that a price reduction took place in Karnataka, wherein we saw similar kind of a price reduction for our portfolio from INR 257 a nip to INR 235 a nip, which was around INR 22, we saw significant growth in that state, right? So our growth in that state is beyond just high teens.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. And regarding the brandy market for overall India, what's the -- can you give me some outlook on that? And how we will be growing on this?
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesSo see, brandy market, what is relevant for us is the Prestige and Above brandy market, right? So I'll just speak about that for the moment. Now Prestige and Above brandy market is to a great extent driven by TI performance on the back of Mansion House and Courrier Napoleon brandy performance. So from that perspective, you can assume that brandy P&A will grow at a similar clip as what we would be growing at. So you can go with the guidance that I've already provided.
Operator
OperatorThe next question comes from the line of Anand S with Avendus Spark.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsJust a couple of questions. Firstly, in terms of taking our brand to the beyond South markets, your North and West, how many touch points we would have reached so far, let's say, in 1Q? And what's the target we are looking for the current year? That's in terms of brandy penetration in the non-South market? The second one is in terms of the TSMA costs that we are calling out for an exceptional item, right? Are these -- there's no proportion of, let's say, a portion of operational expense that's a part of this TSMA cost? Or is it all only -- it's not going to reflect as our operational cost once the transition happens 100% towards Tilak-oriented entities. So how should we look at it? Just these couple of questions.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesUnderstood. So as it stands, we haven't launched brandy in the northern markets. But having said so, we are in the process of doing that in FY '27. This is true not only for the mass and the semi-prestige mass and the mid-prestige portfolio, but even for our luxury portfolio in the form of Monarch. That's the first point. With regards to the TSMA fees, if I understand correctly, your question is whether any part of these fees will start showing up in operating expenses. Is that what you were asking?
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsYes.
Ameya Deshpande
ExecutivesNo. So these are all significantly, what do you say, extraordinary items itself. And thereby, they will not show up at a future point in time in our operating expenses apart from a really small component of maybe 5% of the cost.
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, that was the last question for today. I now hand the conference over to the management for their closing comments.
Amit Dahanukar
ExecutivesThank you all for joining today's call and for your continued interest in our progress. FY '26 has been a landmark year for us. And as we look ahead, we are incredibly excited about opportunities that lie before us in the coming quarters and years. While we fully recognize that the path ahead will present challenges, we are confident that we have identified the critical areas, both short term and long term that will drive our success. We are equally excited to have you with us on this journey as we work towards building a truly pan-India premium-focused alcobev company. Thank you once again for your time and support. We look forward to reconnecting with you soon. Thank you.
Operator
OperatorThank you. On behalf of Tilaknagar Industries Limited, that concludes this conference. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.
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