Titagarh Rail Systems Limited (TITAGARH) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 22, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorHi, everyone. Thanks for joining in today. We've got the management of Titagarh Wagons. So we'll start. Without further ado, we'll hand it to Mr. Anil. The format we'll follow is we'll ask him to take us through the company's brief, and then we'll leave it open for Q&A. [Operator Instructions] Thanks. Over to you, sir.
Anil Agarwal
executiveYes. Thank you, [ Pasham ]. Good afternoon, everyone. Good to connect with you all and you might have heard about -- so actually, I'm on the road, so my colleague Saurav has also joined. So Saurav, I think you can start. So since I'm on the road. So we're able [ to begin ]. I will join in, but you can start and take the thing. So you can briefly explain that -- everyone about Vande Bharat and wheel plant order.
Saurav Singhania
executiveYes. Hello, everyone. Am I audible? Hello?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeGo on.
Saurav Singhania
executiveYes.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes, please.
Saurav Singhania
executiveYes, sure. So thank you so much. Regarding the Vande Bharat order, just to start with, so this was a tender for the 200 train sets, which was floated by Indian Railway and this supposed to be awarded to 2 parties, L1 and L2. So L1 would get 120 train sets, and L2 will get 80 train sets. The L1 -- the person who's L1 will have to manufacture the trains. The complete manufacturing, the part of it, assembly and testing will have to happen from the Nadu factory of Indian Railways. And the party who's L2 will have to do the testing and commissioning at the ICF factory, which is in Bangalore. So this was the broad contours. The total supply -- the total number of train sets are 200, and each train sets had 16 coaches. And then there is a maintenance of 35 years that has to be done for each train set. So we gave our prices. The L1 was -- the L1 party who's the Russians, who have done the joint venture with RINL. So they have quoted INR 120-odd crores, and our price was INR 139.8 crores. So we now have to match the price of the -- price quoted by L1, which is INR 120 crores. So the total value of the supply would be almost like INR 9,600 crores, and the value of AMC for 35 years will be something around, I would say, INR 12,000 crores to INR 13,000-odd crores that the total project taken together will be around INR 25,000 crores. So in this tender, we participated in a consortium with BHEL. So the share of the 2 -- so the scope of work has been distributed between the 2 parties. And the percentage share of Titagarh would be something around 53% to 55%, and that will be the differential. So the deliveries will start 2 years from the date of signing of the contract. The first prototype has to be delivered within 24 months from the date of signing of the order. And then thereafter, there will be series production. In the first year, we have to supply 12 trains. Then it goes up to 18 trains in the next year and then 25 trains thereafter. So that's the delivery schedule that needs to be done. These are the basic contours of the Vande Bharat tender. Coming to the other opportunity that we have been awarded recently in the last week is the wheel set tender. So this was also a tender, which was floated by Indian Railways for procuring wheels. So there, there were 3 competitors. It was Titagarh along with Ramakrishna Forgings. So here also, we participated in a consortium because we do not have any forging facility. So -- and Ramakrishna has pioneered in forging facility. So we joined hands with them. Then with -- the other 2 bidders were SAIL and Bharat Forge, so the offer -- the tender opened last week, and we were just L1. So here, the contract is -- the tender is to supply guaranteed supply of 80,000 wheels per annum to Indian Railways for the next 20 years. And here, we have to create another -- complete greenfield -- so this will be a complete greenfield project for both of us. So we are planning to set up a factory and the entire facility [ to ] be set up. So the deliveries will start 2 years from the date of signing of the order. And there is a gradual offtake of the wheels from the Indian Railways during the first year, 40,000 and then it goes up to 80,000 thereafter. That's how the supply is of the wheels. And here, the share of the work between Titagarh and Ramakrishna Forging will be 50-50. So both of us will have a 50%-50% stake in this. So both these tenders is actually, again, I would say, a game changer for the company because it brings us into a global front. One, on the Vande Bharat, it strengthens our position as a player in the rolling stock industry. And in terms of wheel set, it will help us a lot in terms of being independent in terms of the wheels requirement, which is there, so both the freight wagon and for the passenger rolling stock. So these are the broad contours of the 2 orders that has been recently awarded to Titagarh. Both taken together, the value of the order for the first 1 is almost like INR 25,000 crores. And for the second, if we just consider the offtake of Indian Railways, the value will be around INR 12,000 -- INR 13,000 crores. But we are planning to set up a facility of approximately 2 lakh wheels. So the railway requirement will be almost like 50% of the overall requirement and the balance wheel will be used by us either for the purpose of export or for our internal consumption or for the sale to the third parties. That was the plan is for the wheel set. Yes. Is there any questions on the 2 tenders from anyone?
Operator
operatorYes. If there are any questions, we can -- sorry. Yes, sir. Go ahead.
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo before we move to the question-and-answer session, so basically, about the -- about the wheel plant, another important thing is basically the facility, which we would be setting would be almost around 2 lakhs wheel set, wheels per annum, whereas the guaranteed offtake is only for 80,000 wheels and so that the surplus capacity can be used to cater the private demand because -- and also for the captive consumption and the export market. So today, the wheels, which we need to use for the private back-end customer order, those wheels we are importing from China, Europe and other parts, so those -- we can then start in using our own wheels. And also even for the Vande Bharat tender, the wheel plant should be ready at that point of time, and we can start consuming those wheels even for the Vande Bharat tender. So going forward, we expect to sell the entire 200,000 wheels [indiscernible] [Audio Gap ] higher as compared to the price, what we would be getting for the Indian Railways. And I expect a delta of almost 20%, 25% between the railway price and the price, which we can expect from the export market and the private customers. Only one correction. So for the Vande Bharat tender, the manufacturing is not -- ICF is Chennai and not Bangalore. And what we intend to do is that almost like 70%, 80% of the work, we would be doing at our Uttarpara plant existing facility and the balance only, the assembly and the commissioning, testing, et cetera, would be done at the ICF. So what we intend to do is that for our coach plant at Uttarpara right now, we have the installed capacity of around 200 coaches per annum, which we intend to increase to almost like 850 coaches, of which, 400 coaches, 50% would be applied for the Vande Bharat and the balance, 50%, we would be using for the new metro opportunities going forward. As far as the investment in the wheel plant, we expect our total CapEx of around INR 900 crores to INR 1,000 crores. That's -- all those figures are approximate. And of course, we are fine-tuning that. But on a ballpark, it could be around INR 1,000 crores, of which, it would be funded through debt and equity. It would be an SPV. And the equity portion, our portion would be in the range of around INR 150 crores to INR 175-odd crores as a part of Titagarh. As far as the Vande Bharat is concerned, so Vande Bharat, we don't see any major CapEx. Of course, at the ICF, whatever CapEx we do, that will be fully reimbursed by the Indian Railway subject to an upper cap. But again, as per our estimate, I think we would be well within the cap, which has been given by the Indian Railway. And as far as the Uttarpara facility is concerned, so in order to increase from 200 to 850 coaches, the total CapEx of around INR 250 crores would be required to be done over a period of 2 years. Similarly for the wagon business, against an installed capacity of 8,400 wagons, we intend to increase it to 12,000 wagons. And for that, we would be -- we would need some CapEx of roughly around, I would say, INR 100-odd crores. So the next 2 years, the total CapEx, what the company has planned is around INR 500 crore plus and which would be primarily met through internal accruals and partly by debt. So maybe around INR 200 crore kind of a debt, long-term debt, which we tend to raise over a period of 2 years to support that CapEx investment plan. So that's all. And also, another thing as far as the existing business is concerned, so just to give an update is basically Pune, Pune Metro execution is in progress, and we have been -- till date, we have been -- delivered around 19 trains as far as the wagon manufacturing is concerned. So we are very close to the run rate as per our installed capacity, existing installed capacity. So -- and good traction from demand from the private customer for the private -- for the railway wagons. So that's all. Since considering the year-end, we are very close to the year-end, so I would not be able to speak more detail on the numbers, but yes, some specific questions, we can just answer. Now [ Pasham ], we can start the question and answer.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] We have a question from Akshay.
Akshay Kothari
analystThis is Akshay from Envision Capital. Sir, I just wanted to know, you mentioned that for the Vande Bharat, our percentage share of work would be around 53%, 55%. So just wanted to know how is the structure. Would it be JV or it would be our subsidiary? First on that part.
Anil Agarwal
executiveYes. Sure. So as of now, the execution has been -- the supply portion execution had been planned under the consortium without formation of an SPV, and for the maintenance portion, we intend to form an SPV.
Akshay Kothari
analystOkay. So the profits would directly come in our part, right? It won't be subsidiary.
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, no, it will not be subsidiary, only up to the supply portion. So whatever billing, we are -- like for the 55% portion of work, we would be billing directly to the Indian Railway. And the entire 55% turnover comes in our book, and also the resulting profit will come to our books.
Akshay Kothari
analystUnderstood. Understood. What sort of margins are we expecting on this?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo again, you can understand there is a significant price difference between the L1 and L2 bidder. But still, we are working on cost, so that's then optimization of the entire cost. So idea would be to earn something closer to the 2-digit number.
Akshay Kothari
analystOkay. Okay. Sir, and we have ventured in this forged wheel set. So just to understand, sir, I think there are 2 types of wheel sets, forged wheel set and cast wheel set. So which of them are being predominantly being used in the industry and...
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo depends. So basically, the cast wheels are being used only for the freight wagons. And for the passenger, it is entirely forged wheel. But in case of the -- for the freight wagon, even for the private customer, the forged wheels are being used because the cast wheel, there is a short supply by the rail wheel factory. So as of now, the Indian Railway wagon order, everything is cast wheel, freight wagon. Other than that, everything is forged wheel.
Akshay Kothari
analystOkay. And apart from that INR 12,000 crores, INR 13,000 crores of order, which would be around 50% and 50%, we would be getting to the private side. In that 50% also, Ramkrishna Forging would be sharing 50-50?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo since the wheel plant would be under an SPV, so everything would be there. And after that, it would be like the 50-50 profit sharing based on the SPV outcome.
Akshay Kothari
analystUnderstood. Understood. And lastly, sir, any plans for fundraising?
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo. As of now, no. As of now, no. But yes, fundraising by way of debt, definitely as I have already mentioned.
Operator
operatorWe have a question from the line of [ Sonia ].
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is [ Sonia Olika ] from Dalal & Broacha PMS. So basically, I have a question on the business. The -- mainly -- primarily we are into wagons and coaches. Now we have got good orders on wheels also. So is there any other space apart from wagon and coaches where you are seeing good opportunity mainly in railways like the one we got in wheels?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo as of now, considering the 2 orders, which are in pipeline and which are very large enough, as of now, we don't see any other new business opportunity to enter. But what we are definitely planned is to some critical components required for both wagons manufacturing as well as passenger manufacturing, where we feel that we would be able to save money and where the payback would not be -- where the payback would not [ say ] very longer. So definitely, those items, we would like to develop in-house.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And sir, I have a second question on traction motors. Recently, you had mentioned that you had supplied for traction motor from your facility. Sir, what kind of business we are seeing in this particular segment? And how large would be the opportunity?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo the opportunity for the propulsion equipment, traction motor is a part of the propulsion equipment, so there would be 2 opportunities. One would be for our captive consumption wherein we would be able to save a lot of money and which will help us being very cost effective and improve the EBITDA margin for our coach vertical. And second thing, there is a regular demand for the propulsion equipment from the various undertaking of Indian Railway like ICF and RCF and annual demand, a rough estimate would be around INR 4,000 crores kind of a number, and the margins are also good. So that would be the opportunity for third-party sale and also the -- for captive consumption.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And if I can ask one more question, we were looking -- like if we see the segmental PBT margin breakup, so we are making good margins in wagon segment. And even the shipbuilding space, there, also the margins are quite high. But when we look at the passenger coach segment, the margins are quite low around 1.5%, 2%, at least a quarterly figure, which we had in the [ recent ] quarter. So since now we are getting good orders in passenger segment, so as and when the revenue contribution increases from that particular space, so will the blended margins will come down? Like now we are expecting 8% to 10% EBITDA margin. So once this particular order starts coming into the revenues, how would it impact the margins, the overall rate of margins?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo what we have maintained and informed to the investor like as a corporate, we would like to have an EBITDA -- blended EBITDA margin for the company as a whole between 8% to 10%. And again, depending upon the mixture of different business vertical and even the mixture of the product within the same vertical, that should keep ranging between this range, 8% to 10%. So even when we increase the overall volume of business from the freight -- from the passenger vertical but still, I believe that we would be able to maintain that 8% to 10% kind of a number.
Operator
operatorWe also had a question from the line of Kunal, I think.
Kunal Sheth
analystCan you hear me?
Operator
operatorYes, we can.
Kunal Sheth
analystYes. Just wanted to understand, when we have received these orders, right, what kind of performance guarantees or cost inflation [indiscernible] we have, right? So 2 parts of the question. One is performance guarantee per share that we have to give for this execution guarantee, performance guarantee. And second is the cost inflation and everything, how is that taken care into account?
Anil Agarwal
executiveso definitely, there are some parameters, the well-defined parameters for the performance. And if you don't achieve those performance, so there would be some penalty. Also that is part and parcel of the contract, and it is seen in almost all the passenger side contracts, whether it is metro, metro light, Vande Bharat, everything. And as far as the cost escalation is each and every contract of Indian Railway generally have price variation clause, which is linked to the wholesale price index and which takes care of any increase in the cost.
Kunal Sheth
analystOkay. Okay. And how does the payment terms work simply in this contract? I mean...
Anil Agarwal
executivePayment term is extremely good from the Indian Railway because these are all part of the budgeted expense -- planned expenditure. So payment is not an issue. So although for the freight wagon, it is like 7 days of payment. For the other, like the Vande Bharat or the wheel, the payment term, I had mentioned, in the contract is 30 days. So we don't see a challenge that we -- the payment should get delayed beyond 30 days.
Operator
operatorYes. Akshay, you want to ask a question?
Akshay Kothari
analystYes. Sir, if I heard it right, the CapEx on the Vande Bharat is going to be funded by railway itself?
Anil Agarwal
executiveCapEx for Vande Bharat only at ICF factory, Chennai factory, that CapEx would be funded by the railway, but whatever we have to do at our Uttarpara plant, that, we have to arrange from our own.
Akshay Kothari
analystOkay. And they won't be contributing for that Uttarpara, right?
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, no, so definitely not. So that's our internal theme. So that has already been captured based on the work share, which we have distributed. So for our work share, whatever has to be done, we have to do.
Operator
operator[ Amish ], you want to ask?
Unknown Analyst
analystI'm from JM Financial PMS. Sir, the question was we did mentioned that we are importing currently and now we'll be manufacturing. So I was wondering if you can share some thoughts on whether our cost of manufacturing now will be still lower than the imports or it will be slightly higher than the imports considering you're manufacturing in-house some order.
Anil Agarwal
executiveDefinitely, definitely, the cost of manufacturing would be lower than as compared to the import because first thing is that there is nothing as such. Even for the manufacturing, there are no items, which were required to import from outside. It would be basically the local items. Even the steel sector would be locally available locally getting developed by the Steel Authority or Tata Steel or some other steel plant. And the steel prices are globally more or less at same platform. And whatever value addition, which we would be doing and there, we will have the low-cost labor impact of our country vis-a-vis the European country and even the Chinese. So -- and overall, what I feel that my cost of production and vis-a-vis the cost of procurement, there should be a delta of, roughly, I'm saying 15% to 16%.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Okay. That's good to hear. And sir, you mentioned the double-digit margin, I think, was in the Vande Bharat order where we are L2. In this order wheel set, what is the indicative margin? And if you can also remind us, sir, about what will be the peak sales from these 2 standards in, say, second or third year when we achieve the peak including the MC, sir?
Anil Agarwal
executivePeak sale from wheel plant as per the guaranteed offtake is 80,000 wheels, which would translate into roughly around INR 650 crores to INR 700 crores, but that is only based on the guaranteed offtake. And if you consider also the surplus capacity, which we are setting up, it would be more or less almost 2.5x of the INR 700 crores. It can go up to INR 2,000 crores kind of a number as far as the wheel plant is concerned. As far as Vande Bharat is concerned, the peak production, which we need to do is 25 trains in a year. So 25 trains into INR 120 crores, that is the peak revenue in a particular year.
Unknown Analyst
analystAnd sir, the margin, what did you say? in terms of...
Anil Agarwal
executiveMargin, [ Ajay or ] like in Vande Bharat, we would like to touch or we would like to go closer to the 2-digit number. And in case of wheel, I think, on a rough estimate, 15%, 16%, something which is possible.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. So this, we should then understand in the third year, right, the big year or even in the first year -- yes.
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, no, no. Yes, in the peak production, peak production level.
Operator
operator[ Sonia ], you want to ask a question?
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Sir, I want to understand the overall demand scenario from the private segment for wagons. So what is the current mix of wagons in our order -- in total wagons, the mix from private players in your order book currently? And what is the demand scenario? Do you see it picking significantly once DFC starts?
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo. So demand from the private sector is always cyclical, and it's very difficult to predict. But again, in the worst-case scenario, I would say it has -- it was in the range of around 1,000, 1,500 wagons per annum for the entire industry. In the base case, it was in the range of around 6,000 wagons per annum. But now even if you see the -- even the demand of the Indian Railway, they have undergone a substantial change. And the same is the case with the private demand. And surprisingly, for the last few months, inside last 3 to 6 months, there has been a significant traction in the demand from the private sector side. And I think this can go beyond 6,000 wagons per annum. But again, it's very cyclical, difficult to predict. But as of now, we see a very good demand. And as of now on a ballpark number, I can say it could -- it should be in the range of around 2,000 plus wagon order from the private sector.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And sir, how different would be the margin when we compare orders from private sector and from railways?
Anil Agarwal
executiveMargin would be much -- no, no margin definitely would be better in the private wagon demand. So -- but when we are indicating 8% to 10%, so everything is included in that 8% to 10%. And as I told at that point of time, it depends completely on the wagon mix, depend on the segmental turnover also. So it can range between 8% to 10%. In the bad times, it can be closer to 8%. In good times, it can even cross 10% also.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Okay. And sir, when it comes to billing, like you said we have -- generally, the money comes in on an average basis in 30 days. But the billing which we do, it is like on a daily basis or whenever the lot goes. How it is done?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo billing is being done on a lot basis. So whenever we are ready with a particular lot of wagons, so in case of wagons, it is the lot of 42 wagons to 60 wagons depending upon the type of wagon which we are producing and which is equivalent to like 3 days of production or 2.5 days of production.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And sir, one more thing I want to understand on exports. Anil sir was very clear on your starting exports from India. So from a company perspective, what is our strategy for exports? How is the overall opportunity there? And are we currently exporting like -- and maybe what kind of growth you see and which could be the key geographies where you see the business could be there?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo as of now, the entire focus was on the Indian market because the Indian market still was growing, and we have been fortunate enough to tap on these 2 large opportunities. And good thing also is that these 2 large opportunities are not directly connected with the freight business. The freight business, we keep on looking for the export opportunities. And right now, apart from African countries, Middle East, we are also exploring the countries like Australia and all that. So as of now, we have not been able to get a very large order for the export market, but considering our effort, we will hope that maybe next 3 to 6 months, we should be able to get something from the export market. And that market, the export would always now be a key focus area going forward.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeAll right. Are there any further questions? We can wait about 30 seconds if anyone else wants to ask. [Operator Instructions] We have a question from [ Vijay ] from Nuvama.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo just a couple of questions here. One, so you won one developmental order of Vande Bharat back in 2021. So just wanted to know the update on that, whether you have delivered that. And second is do you see -- how many Vande Bharat tenders do you see in the pipeline currently both from the Indian Railways. And the second is there's been news everywhere that even metros will be replaced by Vande Bharat, so what's the pipeline there if you see any? Yes.
Anil Agarwal
executiveFirst thing is that we got the developmental order only for the propulsion and not for the complete Vande Bharat. And the propulsion, like the traction motor, traction converter or the TCMA, so we already informed you about the supply of the first prototype of traction motor to the Indian Rail, which is under trial. And we expect that the traction converter and other items, we should be able to deliver soon, and maybe by end of this year, FY '24, we should be able to get the final approval from the Indian Railway for the propulsion. But these propulsion are for the EMU and MEMU. And once that gets approved, then shifting to the Vande Bharat propulsion would not be a big challenge. Now in terms of the current Vande Bharat, this is for the entire train set. It's not only about the propulsion. In this case, the propulsion is in the scope of BHEL and not with TWL. In terms of the future demand of the Vande Bharat, as of now, the plans are to procure almost like 1,000 trains, each train of [ 14 to ] 16 coaches. And out of that, as of now, the tender has been -- the bid has been opened only for the 200 trains, which is the first bid in which we are the L2. Then there is another bid in which -- that was for the 100 trains, and we expect some more tenders to come in, in the near future, maybe in 3 to 6 months down the line. As far as the metro and Vande Bharat, first thing is that these are running in 2 different gauges. Vande Bharat runs in the broad gauge and the metro runs on the standard gauge. So I don't see a possibility replacing metro with Vande Bharat. What they have planned is basically even for this like the EMU and the local trains, for that, we can think of introducing some kind of a short distance Vande Bharat trains. As of now, the Vande Bharat is meant only for the sitting carriage for 600 kilometers around that and the sleeping car would be for more than that. But for the shorter distance like 200 kilometers, 300 kilometers, there is nothing. And for that government may think because of the gauge, metro replacement by Vande Bharat is not possible because it is, again, different.
Operator
operatorWe have a question from [ Jeetu Panjabi ].
Unknown Analyst
analystI think I really appreciate you guys talking about the business and what's happening. So tell me the financing by the railways of the Vande Bharat, is this closed? Or is it open? And is there a chance -- or what are chances of delays? They might like kind of lay out the broad order, but do you -- what's the chance of them pushing out orders because they don't have the money or they don't have other -- some other challenges in the system?
Anil Agarwal
executiveI don't see that as a challenge. If you see -- when the first time India floated the tender for 90,000 wagons and everyone raised for concerns about whether we would be able to finance that project or not. But fortunately, for the first branch of all the wagons, which we have supplied and everyone had been paid in time. And it's -- same would apply for the Vande Bharat or any other project because all these projects are out of the planned expenditure. Before the project is announced, the funding is already tied up. So I don't see a challenge as far as the funding is concerned, and because of that, railway, again, backing out.
Unknown Analyst
analystSo to be clear, this comes out of a planned -- the central budget. And thus, you don't see a chance of slippage there.
Anil Agarwal
executiveNot -- so whatever budget reallocation is being done to the railway from the central budget, on the basis of that budget reallocation, railway decide that this much amount has to go for Vande Bharat or this much amount has to go for procurement of the [ only stock ]. So that funding is already tied up.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Understood. Understood. Great. Second question is you talked about an EBITDA margin based on the hybrid of everything about 8% to 9% if I didn't get it wrong. Is that number for March '24, March '25? Or is that a longer-term number?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo 8% to 10% is the blended, 8% to 10%. It was not 8% to 9%. 8% to 10%...
Unknown Analyst
analystSorry, 8% to 10%.
Anil Agarwal
executiveYes. 8% to 10% is the blended margin for the company as a whole and depends on the host of factors, which I already explained. But going forward, the company definitely has a plan to improve upon that. So there are certain items, which still now we were procuring from outside, which we are trying to develop in-house. And we believe that once we are successful in developing those items, there would be an improvement in the EBITDA margin overall. As of now, the focus is primarily on some critical components of the freight business and freight business -- and if we are able to do that, I think that we would be able to improve the EBITDA margin by -- for the freight vertical, improve the EBITDA margin by another 2%, 2.5%, which, on a full company basis, on a blended basis, can help me to increase the overall EBITDA by another 1%, 1.5%.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Great. And my last question is just from a revenue guidance -- I mean, just based on all these orders and the ramp-up of these orders that you talked about and the other business that's happening, would you say that the next 2 or 3 years, which are going to be quite a steep ramp-up, are you kind of saying that -- what do you think would grow at over 30%? Or is there a number...
Anil Agarwal
executiveAs of now, I would not be in a position to give you a guidance, but if you see the company has been continuously increasing its top line, if you see the trend in this year, it's still the June quarter, we were at 400, September quarter, we were at 600, and for December quarter, we are at 800, roughly 800, 770. And I think that the company is taking all the steps to ensure that we reach to a reasonable run rate. And going forward, definitely, there would be -- there should be an increase that the company is working towards. And -- but even by a simple multiplication of the December quarter result, that gives you a revenue of almost like INR 800 crores per quarter, which is INR 3,200 crores per year. So that's considering the benchmark for the December quarter and while the company is taking a lot of effort. So I think the revenue should grow reasonably.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And this INR 800 crore is you're saying the base case and if we're sitting 6 quarters out or 7 quarters out...
Anil Agarwal
executiveI would not say this is the base case of anything, so primarily because we have sufficient orders in hand. The execution now is more or less stable. So I don't see any region that my run rate of INR 800 crore or more, INR 800 crore should go down due to any reason because the -- more or less everything is stable. The only thing good thing can happen is that my overall output increases and accordingly, my turnover increases.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Good. And can I ask you one more quick question? So what do you see as risks to this -- it's a great story. You've got a government intent of wanting to execute. You've got orders out there that are being floated. You can see your position as well positioned in the market. So where do you see the risks just from your own [ memory ]?
Anil Agarwal
executiveAgain, considering the overall size of the business, which we are targeting and also the fact that all these projects are a new, new, new line of business or the new product for us, so there would always be a concern about the execution. Execution risk is always there for any kind of a project. But considering the credentials of the company, the management bandwidth and everything, I think we would be able to manage that, and we don't foresee any big risk. But again, you are running a business, and no business can run without any risk. So -- but I don't see a major piece of challenge going forward.
Operator
operator[ Sonia ] and Akshay, you guys want to ask questions. [Operator Instructions] For now, we are taking [ Sonia ] followed by Akshay, which will be the last.
Unknown Analyst
analystJust last question from my side. So just recently, we have got Vande Bharat order and this order. So is there any other particular tender for which we have like this kind of tender for which we have submitted a bidding?
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, no, no, so there are no such large tender, but yes, there are some few metro tenders, tenders for the metro rolling stock supply in which we are part of...
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. And roughly by when they are expected to come out?
Anil Agarwal
executiveVery difficult to say. But again, hopefully, next 2 to 3 months, I think we should get a clarity.
Operator
operatorAkshay, you want to ask?
Akshay Kothari
analystYes. So just one question. So that 100 trains tender, which you mentioned about aluminum coaches of Vande Bharat, which came out, we didn't bid for it. What was the precise reason considering we also have capability to...
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, although we have the capability, but we don't have the eligibility.
Akshay Kothari
analystOkay. So what is the eligibility for it?
Anil Agarwal
executiveSo there were some -- so the first 200 trains, the design is being provided by the Indian Railway. But in the second tender, the design has to be off your own and that must be like a proven design, which has run into the network and all that. So there's a lot of stringent criteria, which we were not able to meet.
Akshay Kothari
analystUnderstood. And sir, the remaining 700, would it be in -- same as the last tender?
Anil Agarwal
executiveNo, you don't know. You don't know because unless the tender's announced, it's very difficult to predict what would be the eligibility criteria.
Operator
operatorAll right. [Operator Instructions] Okay. If there are no further questions, then thank you so much, Anil, sir, and Saurav for taking your time to interact with investors. And thank you, everybody, for joining. Have a good day. Cheers.
Anil Agarwal
executiveThank you, everyone, for joining this call, and we hope we have been able to answer your queries to some extent. So we have engaged EY as our investor relationship agency. And we have -- we have our colleague, Mr. [ Dinesh Arya ], who's full time involved in this work. So for any further clarification, you can be in touch with them. And in case we would also like to organize a plant visit for the investor in the second week of April, if anyone is interested to do the plant visit, would request you to please coordinate with the EY team or Mr. [ Dinesh Arya ], please. Thank you, everyone.
Saurav Singhania
executiveThank you.
Operator
operatorThank you, sir. Thank you.
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