Titanium Transportation Group Inc. (TTNM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 15, 2023
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, and welcome to Titanium Transportation Group's Q3 2023 Earnings Conference Call. On today's call, we have Ted Daniel, President and Chief Executive Officer; Alex Fu, Chief Financial Officer; and Marilyn Daniel, Chief Operating Officer. Before we begin, I would like to remind everyone that certain statements made on this call today may be forward-looking. In that regard, please refer to the risk factors and cautionary provisions outlined in the press release issued by the company yesterday as well as the filings made by Titanium on SEDAR. Please note that this call is being recorded today, November the 15, 2023. A replay of this call will be made available until midnight on December the 6, 2023. Details of the replay can be found on Titanium's website under the Investors section. I would now like to turn the call over to Titanium's President and CEO, Ted Daniel. Please go ahead, sir.
Theodor Daniel
executiveGood morning. Thank you, operator, and thank you all for joining us. The third quarter of 2023 marked a continuing turbulent period for the North American economy and our industry. Freight transportation faced substantial headwinds, including the adverse effects of rising interest rates, surging operating costs, persistent high inflation, overcapacity and global geopolitical conflict. Furthermore, freight volumes weighed down contractual and transactional freight rates. Against this backdrop, I'm pleased that we delivered another profitable quarter, generating $112.7 million in revenue and $13.5 million in consolidated EBITDA, a testament to the company's resilience and financial navigation systems. In addition to these results during the quarter, Titanium was able to take significant strides towards sustainable growth through the completion of the acquisition of Crane Transport. As mentioned on our previous conference call, the acquisition expands our service offerings to current and new U.S. customers and complements our existing freight brokerage services. With approximately 200 trucks in this fleet, generating roughly USD 60 million annually in revenue, we expect Crane to be a vital asset as we build a solid foothold for our U.S. expansion. Since closing the acquisition on July 31, 2023, our team has worked diligently on the new brand integration, which includes new authorities and systems. We expect this to last the new few -- the next few quarters, which will have a negative impact on margins. In the third quarter, on a consolidated basis, we generated revenue of $112.7 million, EBITDA of $13.5 million and EBITDA margin of 13.6%. We are pleased with these profitable results at a time when many companies find themselves unprepared to manage and in some cases, struggling to remain solvent. On a segmented basis, our trucking business continued to perform well. We delivered revenue of $62.4 million, a 13.6% increase when compared to the third quarter of 2022. The third quarter results were impacted by current economic conditions with volumes for the quarter down about 9% year-over-year and freight pricing also down nearly 8%, with a decrease in fuel surcharge being the main contributing factor. EBITDA margins came in at 18.9% and a 4.2% decline from Q3 2022. This was due to the segment absorbing the majority of integration costs from the acquisition of Crane. In addition, soft economic conditions also put significant pressure on our segment's margins. Although profitability of this segment tightened, we strongly believe that these are natural growing pains as we already -- as we ready the company for the next stage of growth and remain focused on controlling our operating costs to maintain strong levels of profitability in this segment for the remainder of the year and into 2024. As I mentioned at the start of the call, the current freight environment impacted the Logistics segment of our business. Despite these pressures, we performed in line with expectations, generating revenue of $51.5 million and EBITDA of $4.5 million. The pressure on pricing accounted for the entirety of the segment's 13.6% [ decrease ] in revenue as well as offsetting the 6.1% in volume growth achieved by our dedicated team. EBITDA margins for Logistics were 9.7% in Q3 2023 compared to 11% in Q3 of 2022. Overall, we are pleased that this segment was able to grow organically through its new locations despite unfavorable economic conditions. This is consistent with our core strategy of developing sustainable growth platforms across the entire company. Titanium's success is founded on the strength of our people, business processes and technology. With the acquisition of Crane as well as our new freight brokerage offices, we remain focused on maintaining sustainable profitability while building towards our future growth. We anticipate continued macroeconomic uncertainty for the remainder of 2023 and ideally positioned to weather these conditions and drive growth when the truck transportation industry cycle turns. During the second half of 2024, we expect the market to improve with reductions in supply to the freight market and enabling additional organic growth and driving value for shareholders. As a result, we revised our 2023 full year revenue guidance range to $430 million to $450 million and EBITDA margins of 10.5% to 12.5%. With that, I'll turn it over to Alex for a more detailed discussion of our financial results for the quarter. Alex, take it away.
Kit Chun
executiveThanks, Ted. In the third quarter of 2023, on a consolidated basis, Titanium generated revenue of $112.7 million compared to $113.4 million in Q3 2022. We delivered EBITDA of $13.5 million compared to $15.5 million in Q2 2022 -- Q3 2022 with EBITDA margin of 13.6%. Diving deeper into segment performances, the Truck Transportation segment saw revenue of $62.4 million, an increase of $13.6 million -- 13.6% over Q3 2022 and EBITDA of $10.1 million with an EBITDA margin of 18.9%. As Ted mentioned previously, this segment absorbed a significant portion of integration costs resulting from the acquisition of Crane Transport. We expect this to last the next few quarters. The Logistics segment generated revenue of $51.5 million compared to $59.6 million in the comparative period. EBITDA was $4.4 million compared to $5.8 million in the comparative period with an EBITDA margin of 9.7% compared to 11% in the same quarter in 2022. Titanium's people, processes and technology provide a solid foundation for our operations and platform for our future growth. Given the strength of our business and our confidence in the earnings outlook, we maintain our dividend, declaring a dividend of $0.02 per common share. Before I turn the call over back to Ted, I would like to highlight that we demonstrated the results of our strong capital allocation strategy by closing the acquisition of Crane without a capital raise. We believe in a strong balance sheet, which will continue to be our focus as we navigate these economic headwinds. I would now like to turn the call over back to Ted.
Theodor Daniel
executiveThanks, Alex. Good job. For the remainder of 2023, we expect that the North American economy will continue to be impacted by below-trend demand, elevated inventory levels and overcapacity in our industry. Despite these challenges, Titanium will remain focused on servicing our customers, investing in our technology and people, efficiently managing our expenses and driving profitability. With the closing of our recent acquisition, we'll unlock future logistics growth as we remain well positioned to capitalize on customer opportunities when the cycle turns. I would like to add that we are in full swing of integration and conversion of Crane to Titanium's proprietary processes and the new branding of Titanium American Trucking. We are very pleased with the process and excited to welcome staff, drivers and customers to the new direction and service offerings. Our diverse customer base and product lines provide us with consistency during turbulent times, we are confident that we will continue to capitalize on opportunities and make prudent investments, which will translate into sustainable long-term growth for our shareholders. With that, I'll turn it over to the operator to open the line for questions. Thank you.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from the line of David Ocampo of Cormark Securities.
David Ocampo
analystI appreciate the commentary on the revenue contribution from Crane, but I was hoping you guys could also speak to the margin profile. And on top of that, if you're seeing anything that could make the integration process a little smoother or bumpier versus your 12-month integration process?
Theodor Daniel
executiveOkay. Great. Thanks for asking, David. I'm going to actually -- Alex is going to take this one.
Kit Chun
executiveOkay. So the margin profile, like we explained when we originally acquired Crane, their margin profile is not to the same level as Titanium. So we are working to integrate that. One of the questions that may come up is that we're expecting Titanium's margin to drop on the Trucking segment, and it may not drop as much as anticipated. And that's because there's only 2 months of Crane, which is the lower margin profile, a couple of points lower than Titanium. And we have recognized some cost savings in the quarter, thanks to running our fleet better, and Marilyn will jump into that later. But overall, we're expecting the margin to slip a little bit more because there are transaction costs that's going to come into play in Q4, in Q1 of next year. So that's going to happen. This -- in this quarter, we only have about $500,000 of transaction costs because it's still really early in the earnout transaction -- sorry, integration costs because that's still really early in the integration. But as we go on and we incur these costs over the next few quarters, we are going to see some margin compression. But past that, we're expecting our integration efforts and getting on to our Titanium platform that the margin is going to turn around for Crane as well. And now I'll pass over to Marilyn to maybe talk about some of the integration.
Marilyn Daniel
executiveSure. David, just to clarify which -- what part of the integration process would you like to have information on just sort of where we are so far.
David Ocampo
analystYes, where you guys are so far and if they're on track for that 12-month target.
Marilyn Daniel
executiveSo yes. So actually, we're well underway. There's been a great team to work with from a human capital point of view. We've been very fortunate to have a good group to work with. We are deep in the process of rebranding and retooling as we normally do, changing authorities and so on. We expect our go-live date to be January 1 for physical integration and rebranding of all trucks and drivers, et cetera, in the normal course. From that point, we move to fleet optimization stage, which we expect to take the better part of 1 to 2 quarters at least to kind of work through and optimize our -- I guess, our synergies between the company and opportunities created. Crane has a new set of customers for us to work with, which is a growth area for us. There's a little overlap, but not a lot in terms of customer base, but product lines, definitely significant overlap. So we have an opportunity to really leverage that. So the 12-month target of our usual turnaround phase, we are on track for, and we're excited to work with the team this year.
David Ocampo
analystThat's great. And then maybe for Ted. I mean, if I take a look at the Truck Transportation's margins before you even completed ITS, it was in the mid-teens. And if I look at the post-integration phase, you guys were able to push margins into the low-20s. I understand that part of that is supported by a pretty good market environment, but some of it is probably attributable to some scale. So I was just curious if you're able to get the scaling benefits from Crane's that you guys are separated by a border there.
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes, absolutely. I mean we've always been a cross-border carrier. So this is nothing new to us. We have always experienced both markets. They are different. If you look at, for example, a local domestic Southern Ontario market is extremely different in terms of how it operates versus a, call it, a short -- short to medium to long haul environment in and out of the U.S. and throughout the U.S. So we're very experienced with that. We've definitely a high-teens target. We -- we also will benefit here from economies of scale. And one of -- there were only 200 trucks and our purchasing power as well will provide far more discounts on numerous levels. Our cost of operations is also a lot more efficient. And that's kind of counterintuitive if you think about it because overheads in the Canadian market are actually higher than the U.S. So we've got kind of 2 double positive [ Vinnies ] that we're going to be able to actually scale from in this environment.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Matthew Lee of Canaccord.
Matthew Lee
analystMaybe we can sort of the housekeeping one on margin guidance. Am I just correct to assume that that's not management definition of EBITDA margin in the context of it includes fuel cost and fuel revenue?
Kit Chun
executiveIt does.
Matthew Lee
analystOkay. That's helpful.
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes.
Matthew Lee
analystAnd then maybe just a follow-up on David's question. I mean, can you help me quantify the impact of the integration cost in the quarter, maybe as a percentage point or dollars? And then do you feel like Q3 margin in trucking are kind of a bit of a floor in that business or typically, more pressure coming?
Kit Chun
executiveI'll -- the second part of the question, I'll let Marilyn jump in. So transaction costs -- sorry, integration costs, like I said, we're still early in the stages, we're well underway, but we haven't incurred a lot of the cost yet. So this quarter, we have about $500,000. We are expecting quite a bit more in the coming quarters. As we move the trucks over, we got retail -- in retail, there's a lot of physical cost that comes with not computers and whatnot. But for now, we've $500,000, and a lot of it is -- we -- when we evaluate a new business, there are some inefficiencies that goes with the start of the integration. So that's what we're incurring right now, such as elevated borrowing costs from Crane themselves that we could have cut. But right now, we have to keep some of the other stuff includes insurance and whatnot. So there are pieces that will disappear in a quarter or 2 that currently, we just have no choice to carry on.
Theodor Daniel
executiveOkay. So I think to elaborate on that, when we originally bought Crane, we basically told the market that it's roughly somewhere around the 13%, 14% EBITDA. It is not technologically advanced purchasing power when it comes to things like fuel and insurance and so on, you know what, they don't -- they didn't get the critical mass that we've got the ability to do that. In addition, the navigation systems that we're going to be implementing that are going to go live Jan 1 and onwards are going to provide significant guidance in terms of both daily, weekly, monthly, et cetera. So from an IT and IS perspective, those are huge tools for us. We're extremely technologically advancing compared to, I would say, 90-something percent of companies that are out there. So from that perspective, we'll definitely see a significant lift. So yes, there's maybe a little bit of initial cost in terms of implementing some of these processes and streamlining of everything over the next few months. But once we get everything on our navigation systems, we believe that this is a tremendous opportunity. It's going to open up a huge market. The U.S. is almost $1 trillion market. It is absolutely incredible as to how many thousands of customers you can obtain in the U.S. that have 10x, 15x, 20x the amount of revenue that your small to midsized Canadian company would have. So from that perspective, we're actually -- we're very excited on that level. We should really see some economies of scale in the -- probably after Q1 of next year.
Matthew Lee
analystOkay. But is it fair to say that on an EBITDA margin basis, kind of Q4 and Q1 will kind of be similar or lower than Q3 was?
Theodor Daniel
executiveI would say given the fact that this year has been a pretty soft year, I think that Q4, we're going to sort of broach that subject. I'd say Q4 is going to be, in general, given the circumstances of the market, it's going to be more of the same. Q4 is generally not a good quarter from a seasonality perspective. It might even be a tiny bit lower, but it's been a soft year. And Q4, of course, you're absorbing in Canada in October, you're absorbing Canadian Thanksgiving in November, you're absorbing American Thanksgiving, and in December, we're absorbing the Christmas and New Year holiday season. So generally, Q4 is really not a great quarter for anybody quite frankly, it kind of has this busy little spurt in the middle just to sort of help out in the retail environment, but other than that, it's got a lot of challenges. I'd say Q1 as well is never a great quarter from a seasonality perspective just because you've got January and February, and there isn't a lot of good retail, things generally are soft. That's from a seasonality perspective. Now layering on top of that, the cyclicality aspect of what's going on, you've got, I think in general, regardless of what's going on in regards of the strategy that we're implementing, Q4, Q1 are generally not good quarters. But with the technological investments and the strategic investment that we've made with Crane in Georgia, we believe that we're going to see significant benefits from this acquisition.
Marilyn Daniel
executiveI'll also add just from an operational point of view in terms of Q1, especially. So once our integration, our physical integration and rebranding is really complete by January 1 or shortly thereafter, our push really is on the customer expansion. So we've already been meeting with customers that are new opportunities for Titanium with not just interstate freight, which Crane has been moving historically, Crane did not do any cross-border freight or any Canadian freight prior to Titanium, where many of these customers have those opportunities for us. So we expect the first quarter to be a farming time for us with our customer base to be able to leverage that. So it's not just a -- I wouldn't just look at the quarter from a revenue perspective, it's also a ceding ground for us.
Matthew Lee
analystOkay. That's perfect. And then maybe just lastly, in terms of your Miami location, I know it's a bit early, but I mean directionally that also is kind of performing as you'd expect?
Marilyn Daniel
executiveIt's Jacksonville.
Matthew Lee
analystSorry.
Marilyn Daniel
executiveAll right.
Theodor Daniel
executiveI wanted Miami, but -- so it's Jacksonville.
Marilyn Daniel
executiveGo ahead.
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes, Jacksonville is going really, really well. In fact, we're very excited. The -- we're like 90% done with the leaseholds, and we're starting with the interviewing process, and we are very excited that before the end of the year, it's going to be basically fully ready to run both physically and technologically. And we should start seeing growth quite albeit, I just said Q1 is never a great quarter, but that's a great time to go and look for people because everyone else is also slow so -- usually. So it's a good time. We're going to be hiring more and more people starting January and onwards, and we'll definitely see growth, and it is a growing town, it's a growing state. So we're actually really excited, and there's actually a Crane customer that's in Jacksonville as well. So we're definitely leveraging those relationships. So there's a lot of really great overlaps here.
Matthew Lee
analystThat's great. Sorry about the Miami thing. I think I just had the holidays on my mind.
Theodor Daniel
executiveWell, put a smile to our face too, it's all good.
Matthew Lee
analystYes. Fair enough. Take care.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Gianluca Tucci of Haywood Securities.
Gianluca Tucci
analystIf I can start off by asking about your margins. I'm wondering if there's anything in particular that you're doing on the trucking or asset-light [ reservation ] front in the context of the market environment we're presently in right now?
Kit Chun
executiveSo definitely, we have a lot of cost control measures, like we said, right now, the market is soft. So we can -- we have to do what we have to do. So there's a lot of cost control measures. We have recognized a lot of savings on our fleet operation cost that by just looking at some of our navigation system, and we found areas where we could improve on with a temporary move on at least to drive that or to maintain that margin on Titanium proper. You know that Crane is going to be a little different in terms of the margin profile. So there's a lot of that. Some of the savings that we recognize is completely -- it's a little out of control, fuel pricing, we have mentioned a couple of times that FSC has come down. That's one of the main reasons why our revenue was down. But that -- the good side of that is our fuel is also down. So there's a part saving on that end as well. Yes. So we do have savings on stuff that we can control and stuff that we can't control that drives the margin where it is. We are happy to pass that margin. But one of the big things is that Crane is only 2 months in, so we don't have a full quarter margin profile with Crane in there. And as we incur more integration costs, that's going to drive [ that 100 percentage ] as well. And then I'll just turn -- I'll pass it off to Ted to talk about how we are able to maintain our...
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes, I mean, we -- yes, we've got also some variable costs in the mix, in particular, you've got all sorts of cost structures that can scale up and scale down. Even -- I mean I just want to add one thing, for example, we've got a very new fleet, just first cycle back to trucking, a lot of the fleet has been refreshed. We don't have -- our average age of our truck is like 1.6 years now. I mean, 90-plus percent of our trucks are under warranty at this point in time. So we also have a very high cost control right now in R&M. So that's a really big one. So we do have a lot of areas where we've got cost of scale up or scale down relative to the market. Our technology gives us a lot of navigation and because the tech is very, very dialed into minute-by-minute transactions, and it gives us a lot of navigation, we're able to make decisions very quickly. Our margin profile is based on a lot of technological navigation. I mean it's -- think of it as our daily minute-by-minute navigation, our GPS navigation of where we're going, like GPS in your car, GPS in your plane, it's very robust from that perspective. So I think that gives us a lot of, call a lot of power from -- sort of from a profitability perspective and giving us the ability to weather the storm on a profitable basis given the circumstances, I think it's really -- it's more exciting than anything else in the sense that I know that as soon as the cycle turns, and it is in the process of shrinking right now. I mean if you look at the stats of your net new authorities on a monthly basis, the report that comes out, and we all look at them, whether it's FreightWaves or FTR or any other publications, we look at net new, and it's, of course, every month now you've got negative net news, so the market is shrinking. At a certain point, it's going to hit an inflection. As soon as it hits that inflection and you know what, our systems are just going to kick into overdrive and it's going to be a complete reversal of what's going on. As soon as that happens, you know what, I mean, people are going to see it coming.
Gianluca Tucci
analystRight. Yes. No, I totally hear you and I concur. And it's great to hear that the integration plans with Crane are on track and according to plan. I think Marilyn touched on this, but can you speak to the early new revenue opportunities you're seeing by having hard assets in the U.S. now? Are you at a point to be able to quantify a pipeline of new business opportunities at this point?
Marilyn Daniel
executiveCertainly, as we've said from the beginning, having assets on the ground in the U.S. is definitely a market opener for us, just as it was for us many years ago, when we started with our Logistics business and then added assets to the mix, that is certainly an opportunity. In these times that are unfortunately less robust. Having assets on the ground is definitely a key conversation piece with customers. So it is definitely an opportunity for us. And we do see it as a significant growth opportunity for us, both on the brokerage side with the opportunity coming from it and on the asset side.
Gianluca Tucci
analystOkay. And I appreciate that context. And like with all the capacity adds coming offline, particularly in the U.S., have you been able to capture some of that market share at this point or is it still too early to say?
Marilyn Daniel
executiveIt's still very early. We're just focusing now on their existing customer base, which is good and just leverage the information we have on that. We're just putting in our tools, so that's part of it. Once we have complete visibility of all operations, like with most smaller companies, there's a lot of offline paper processes that we need to automate and we're going through that right now. That's why I always kind of look at it as there's 2 stages, first is sort of your integration and that is your optimization. Once we get to the optimization stage, which will be in Q1 for sure, that will be where we really start to see a benefit.
Gianluca Tucci
analystAnd for Alex lastly, can you update us on your CapEx plans for the next 12 months?
Kit Chun
executiveYes. So very excited to share that our fleet, our truck side at least is completely done, where you can see from our MD&A as well, we're not buying. We don't plan on buying any trucks next year. So -- and trailers, we have caught up entirely, and going forward, it will just be maintenance. So you see that there's $170 million so far, and that's probably going to be the number for next year. Our fleet is pretty new, and that also reflects on the cost control because the R&M like Ted said is significantly lower. So we will maintain the fleet that we have now and just replace trailers on a needed basis. And that's it. So that's [ $14 million ] next year or in the next 12 months. And as needed, we'll probably do another [ $14 million ] a year after. Maybe we'll go up to 200 trailers, maybe 250 trailers, so it won't be too significant.
Gianluca Tucci
analystThat's great color [indiscernible].
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes. We're pretty happy and believe that we've pretty much done the majority of our CapEx replacement cycle.
Kit Chun
executiveAnd just to touch on Crane. So far, we haven't found anything that would require significant replacement. The trucks are pretty new and in pretty good condition as well.
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes.
Gianluca Tucci
analystGood work, talk to you soon.
Operator
operatorOur next question comes from the line of Benoit Poirier of Desjardins.
Benoit Poirier
analystYes. Just to come back on the opening remarks about the market that is poised to improve in the second half and also your comment on logistic, I was wondering about what -- when would you expect the logistic revenue growth to turn positive, especially as you expect the market to rebound at one point?
Theodor Daniel
executiveOkay. Yes, I love this question. So -- because I'm trying to navigate on a macro basis here to some degree, right? But yes, so interestingly enough, I mean there's really 2 components, I think to -- or 3 components really if you think about it to revenue in a broker to some, for the most part, I mean you could have other smaller ones, but, one is fuel, which -- fuel is somewhat of a flow-through, particularly in the brokerage market, it's an ingredient that if fuel goes up, fuel surcharges go up or it's whatever you need to give the subcontractor in terms of either a rate plus fuel or an all-in rate, it really all comes down the wash. So you're basically providing a margin with fuel, which we can't control, but that's really controlled by the fuel market. So putting that aside, the 2 other components is essentially the market, which is a matter of really supply and demand. So -- and those really 2 ingredients, last year, you saw -- well, let's just go back to 2022, which was still a really great year. There was a lot of profit. But really from a seasonal perspective, Q1 is not a great quarter. It's a challenging quarter for most carriers and especially most small trucking companies, of which, according to the ATA, 97% of which are 10 trucks or less. So that's a significant part of the hyper-fragmented markets. So last winter, people survived a lot easier than I believe they're going to survive this winter. So I believe that there will be based on supply and demand and an accelerated shrinkage of capacity that by the late spring, early summer, we are going to see an impactful shrinkage of capacity in the market. And that's why I believe the second half is going to be far more robust than it currently is from a pricing perspective.
Benoit Poirier
analystYes. Okay. Perfect. And obviously, we are tracking the net revocation authorities, but probably bankruptcy needs to step in also at one point to remove some supply, right, Ted?
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes. Yes, I look at that as well a lot. So it definitely gives me an indication of where we are in the market.
Benoit Poirier
analystOkay. And just with respect to -- in terms of change mix spot versus contractual rate, is there any big change in the mix for Truck Transportation and Logistics given the change in market environment?
Theodor Daniel
executiveNot really. We like to be in the contractual market when it comes to trucks and trailers. The reason being is because they are assets, I'd like to use the colloquialism that they are similar to real estate on wheels. So we like a certain steady as she goes, predictable. We like to have our trucks moving. Yes, certainly, there is a little bit of -- and we understand it, there is a little bit of pricing pressure in the trucking environment. And you do have a little bit of spot market in there just because it does -- it's not a perfect science in terms of even the contractual environment and just filling in a few of the small gaps, your spot market headhauls or your backhauls and stuff like that. So certainly, there's been a little bit of downward pressure there. So that's challenging. And as the market tightens, even those little fillers are going to get more expensive. So that's going to add more revenue to already your existing fleet. And because it's very, very new, I mean our balance sheet is never going to forget the purchase price of the truck, so the truck is there no matter what, whether the rates are down, whether the rates are up. So as rates improve, I believe in the second half of 2024, you're going to see, I think some real significant improvements. In terms of Logistics, our Logistics environment is more flexible. It definitely has more of a majority spot market environment. We help solve more of the immediate problems that our customers run into where they've got fluctuations in demand or production lines or what have you. And that's how we solve problems on a fluctuating basis. So you want to be more in the spot market there, right, so that you can adjust in terms of more of the immediate needs of your customers.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] Our next question comes from the line of [ Mike Horne of ATH ].
Unknown Analyst
analystI wanted to ask, first of all, on the macro outlook, you talked about an anticipated improvement in the second half of 2024. I guess I just -- apologies, I missed some of the call, if you've already addressed this. But I wanted to just ask, is that sort of based on the various industry sources and a consensus among those or is that your own internal visibility or how do you kind of substantiate a second half improvement versus maybe something earlier or even something later?
Theodor Daniel
executiveI don't believe earlier, but that could be my little bit of, I guess...
Kit Chun
executiveConservatism.
Theodor Daniel
executiveConservatism. Yes, exactly. I was, say, cautious. I don't even know if there's any optimism in that cautiously optimistic. But I definitely don't think -- I think that anything you have first half of 2024, even though Q2 is generally a good quarter, I don't think first half is going to be fantastic. I think it's just going to be too -- it's too close, and I'm just seeing way too much capacity still out there. But I mean it's a combination, right?
Marilyn Daniel
executiveI think to answer your question more specifically, where are we getting our opinion from I guess or where are we formulating our opinion from, definitely, some of the industry sources that are out there do have obviously a reason and we pay attention to them but then some of our industries within our own system. So what our customers are telling us, what our trends are telling us, what our data is telling us, seems to indicate that, that is what we are looking to. As mentioned earlier on the call with Benoit, we're tracking things like carriers leaving the space, carriers leaving the space, large and small, revocations of authorities, et cetera, that's all on the rise. So those are all granular indexes, truck rejection rates, new orders of trucks, et cetera. So if you put them all together, it helps us formulate our opinion as to when we feel the market is turning. So that's where we're getting our perspectives from.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay. Okay. So then let's just drill down. I was -- I read the [ $14 million ] of anticipated CapEx for 2024. And I was happy to hear about a similar level in 2025. So let's just assume EBITDA, I think your expectation for the year now is at the midpoint of around $50 million. Let's just say 2024 was flat or you get improvements from Crane integration, et cetera, what maybe the industry remains weak. Let's say EBITDA is flat at $50 million, but with only $50 million CapEx in the next 2 years, you'll be generating, I mean, call it, $30 million of free cash flow a year -- for the next 2 years, all else equal?
Kit Chun
executiveYes. So yes, we look at it from that metric. Yes. We've had this conversation before, Mike.
Theodor Daniel
executiveCan't you give us a [Technical Difficulty], we can take all the fun out of it.
Kit Chun
executiveSo yes, by a free cash flow measure, we will be very much positive. It is a positive story, don't get me wrong. But one of the figures that we look at internally is actually sustainable CapEx. The reason why is because, yes, we're now into a low in our replacement cycle because we have replaced most of our equipment. But we're going to get back into it again in a couple of years, which is going to be heightened spending and all of a sudden if free cash flow disappears...
Theodor Daniel
executiveBut not to the same extent, right? Because the extreme -- sorry, just the extreme was that we were delayed by 1.5 years to 2 years on trucks due to COVID.
Kit Chun
executiveYes, but there is that, whenever we are into a cycle, it will be that amount. So...
Unknown Analyst
analystRight. So...
Kit Chun
executiveYes.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. No, I was just going to say COVID got masked everything else for sure, and now you're in a low period and then you'll go into a higher period. So for our benefit, is -- have you guys ever sort of come up with where you think your sort of average annual CapEx number?
Kit Chun
executiveYes, we do, we do, we have that number. So our net of our disposal, our normalized CapEx is about $40 million.
Unknown Analyst
analystNormalized is $40 million, okay.
Kit Chun
executiveYes. Yes.
Unknown Analyst
analystBut as I said, I mean, the next 2 years are going to be exceptional. And I mean, $30 million is 30% of your market cap. So that said, your priority remains growth, growth in Logistics, growth in sensible acquisitions. Would you -- as a secondary consideration, would you have a preference between buybacks or dividends?
Kit Chun
executiveSo right now, our focus is that is reducing our debt. We don't have too much, but we do -- we are -- we have burned through a lot of our cash flow from -- with the Crane acquisition. It's a good thing, we didn't have to do a raise for it, but it did burn through a lot of our cash flow. So we are trying to repay the debt and draw it down. After that, then it goes back to our strategy of buying back, raising dividends. It depends on the market.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Okay.
Theodor Daniel
executiveSo if we generate on a no change basis with 0 growth, 0 impact for Logistics, let's say, $50 million in cash, we're going to pay off the check that we just wrote for Crane. But I think that as time goes on, strategically, we'll have to decide whether or not we want to increase the dividends or we want to do share buyback. And I think that's going to depend to some degree on growth opportunity at that point in time. So if we want to go and buy another Crane, let's say, to hit our growth targets over the next 3 years to 5 years, open up more logistics offices, expand the number of terminals that we've got across the U.S., then we'll have to make those capital allocation decisions from that perspective.
Unknown Analyst
analystYou guys have you ever expressed a target leverage ratio or a range you're comfortable with?
Kit Chun
executiveYes. So we are comfortable with a debt-to-EBITDA of -- yes, debt-to-EBITDA about 3.5 and a debt to equity about anywhere from 3 to 3.5. So -- but that has to be the right acquisition for us. We don't want to get to that 3 range, if it -- well, right now, we're in that 3 range because Crane is the right acquisition for us. But we -- generally, if we do buy, we would like to keep it under 3. But again, with the right acquisition, we'll go above that.
Unknown Analyst
analystGo above that, as high as 3.5, if I heard that correctly. Yes.
Kit Chun
executiveYes.
Unknown Analyst
analystOkay.
Theodor Daniel
executiveYes. But that's got to be strategic in the sense that as we said, we were in the low-1s on our debt before Crane -- we bought Crane. That put us in, call it, that [ high-2s ] to almost 3 range, depending on how you want to calculate it. We understand that that's a number that we don't like to be at that level, but we understand that we need it to be at that level in order to buy Crane. And it was purposeful because we know what this is going to do for our company. So kind of getting back to the question that you asked strategically, where do we want to go from here, we know what this is going to do for us. So assuming we don't grow, assuming Crane really has no impact, assuming we don't have a margin improvement program, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera, assuming we don't open up 3 more offices in the U.S. in brokerage over the next 18 months, like our goal is to hit 10 by the end of 2025. So we definitely expect this to have an exponential impact from a positive perspective. So we would like to generate the cash flow that you're kind of looking at, I guess, on a worst-case scenario faster. That's our goal.
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. Okay. So not to put words in your mouth, but just to summarize, I mean, it sounds like, number one, delever and accrete -- take down debt, accrete value to the equity. And then once that's at a level where you're sort of more comfortable that's been reduced, then you consider the next growth opportunity or capital return to shareholders depending on what the situation is at that time.
Kit Chun
executiveActually, I would say number one is probably organic growth for us, which is not that expensive and then we will go into repayment and then we will look for opportunities, that's more of our [ aim ].
Theodor Daniel
executiveThey're all kind of [ close seconds ] for sure.
Operator
operatorAnd there are no further questions at this time. So I'll hand the call back to Ted Daniel. Please proceed.
Theodor Daniel
executiveOkay. Thank you, operator. Regardless of challenge, the confidence that Titanium's team of hard-working people will undoubtedly rise to the occasion. We appreciate your interest in our company. I look forward to providing an update on our progress in all of our priorities discussed today when we report our Q4 results. If there are any further questions, please feel free to call us. Thank you for joining us on our call today.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, this concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for participating and ask that you please disconnect your lines.
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