TKH Group N.V. (TWEKA) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

November 12, 2024

Euronext Amsterdam NL Industrials Electrical Equipment earnings 51 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Hello, and welcome to TKH Q3 Market Update Conference Call. My name is George, and I'll be coordinator for today's event. Please note this conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] I'd now like to hand the call over to your host today, Mr. Alexander van der Lof, CEO of TKH to begin today's conference. Please go ahead, sir.

J. van der Lof

executive
#2

Good morning, everyone, and thank you for being in the call. Yes, we will update you about the Q3 results and also our forecast for the rest of this year. Yes, we saw that in Q3, the turnover decreased, almost in line with what we actually expected, EBITA with a decrease of 13.8%. Smart Manufacturing performed quite strongly in continuation of the previous quarters. And Smart Vision also had a quite good performance, especially when we look at the challenging market circumstances, and we are on the route to gain market share, especially also if we look ahead and our position for the coming quarters. Within Smart Connectivity, we had a negative impact in the short term, and that was kind of unexpected in relation to the postponement of ramping up the serial production for the inter-array cables for offshore wind in the new plant in Eemshaven, some small technical issues with equipment where we decided to partially stop the manufacturing, and I will come back later in the outlook what the current position is. Destocking at digitalization, we saw in a specific -- a few end markets that at specific customers, a huge stock has been created and that led to the fact that they almost stopped giving orders and first take away the inventory -- to use the inventory. What is very good is the high added value. We see, I believe, for the third or fourth consecutive quarter that the added value is about 2 points, 2.5 points higher than that it was previously. It is related to the strategic focus that we have, the innovations that we brought in our portfolio in, yes, I would say, even recent years, which is supporting to get a higher added value. And I believe that is very important for the future in respect of the returns -- the bottom line returns we can achieve and the bottom lines can improve, can improve especially because of the fact that we are positioned for growth. And with the high utilization, we will get a better cost ratio. And yes, that will, of course, help them to increase the return on sales. The initiated cost saving program is running on track. We might be even looking in the last months of this quarter to further see if there are additional cost savings and especially also related to the cost ratio where we want to see an improved situation. We had a good order intake and especially the sales funnel is looking quite well for the coming quarter and beyond that for a very high order intake. And that would lead to the fact that although we have in some segments, a very high turnover that we have a good order book by the year-end, that is around the order book we had last year. And then, yes, the outlook, of course, is based on a very strong Q4, and that Q4 is about in line with our previous expectations and will be substantially higher than Q3. And the outlook has been adjusted, but that is mainly to reflect the Q3 results and the effect that we saw within Smart Connectivity, that negative impact. We saw really good progress in preparing for growth and accomplished most of the milestones. And the milestones are, let's say, the main milestones are related to gaining market share, for which we invested quite a lot of money in respect of the commercial organization and in the solution selling, which is also an additional opportunity to go beyond and to gain market share and to grow our business. And what is also very important is the strong order book that we want to build by the end of this year for not only next year, but also for the coming years in the offshore wind position. And that looks also quite good. The sales funnel is very, very high. We mentioned in the previous update that we are working in 52 tenders with more than 9,000 kilometers of cable in these tenders. And yes, that -- it looks like that we will be further growing this opportunity of the sales funnel. And what we also mentioned in our press release that we believe that in the short term, we can translate a part of the sales funnel in interesting projects to have a strong order book for next year and the coming years. So that is the update on Slide 3. I move to the next slide, where we see the different segments. Smart Vision is a 7.9% organic decrease. So still continued challenging market circumstances. We even saw that the VDMA, which is a German organization who is following the market situation, that, for instance, in Germany, the market decreased by more than 15%. And a big part of the 2D vision activities of TKH is related to the German market. And there, we even saw a modest growth. The decline was mainly in the 3D vision and also in the Security Vision, 3D, especially because of the weakness in the battery and solar end markets. We see that we are positioned for other markets and also don't believe that the battery and solar end markets will be very attractive and positive in the coming quarters. But the good news is that we see in other end markets that we are positioned well and also growth opportunities are in place. And then within Security Vision, we saw that due to the timing of projects, the third quarter was somewhat weak. But yes, also there, the outlook is much more promising for the fourth quarter and also going beyond. Smart Manufacturing had a, yes, really, really good performance. We also have to take in mind that the third quarter is the vacation period. So there are less working hours. But yes, also compared to a strong Q3 last year, we did a quite good job and especially on the profitability side, the implemented efficiency improvements really continue to pay off. And then we had another divestment in Q3 after in Q2, we announced HE Systems. And now in Q3, EKB was closed as -- or the divestment was closed as part of the Accelerate 2025 program. And then within Connectivity, yes, the organic decrease was the highest with 10.8%. I already mentioned the 2 main areas where we saw the decrease. I believe the good news is that the ramp-up postponement is not -- is also a postponement of the timing of the manufacturing. So we will still be able to manufacture. It's just postponement of the order book that we could have manufactured and we are well prepared to further move up the capacity. And at the same time, we have decided to have as a plan B, additional capacity from our existing plant in Lochem to compensate the small issues we have, for which we have a delay in the ramp-up in Eemshaven. Yes, I already mentioned, we expect larger projects to be signed in the short term. That is really good news. We are almost already there with the utilization target for '25 that we have said earlier and communicated. And as I mentioned, the sales funnel is growing and yes, it's confirming the really attractive offshore wind potential. The outlook, I believe I should not go through all the details there because you have been able to read that. I already mentioned in the beginning that we had to adjust the forecast for the whole year from EUR 210 million up to EUR 220 million, now to EUR 200 million and a range of EUR 200 million and EUR 210 million. And yes, if you then look at the Q4 result that we have to achieve, it is a really strong Q4. And yes, that is actually my last comment about this presentation. I'd like to hand over for questions.

Operator

operator
#3

[Operator Instructions] Our first question today will be coming from David Kerstens calling from Jefferies.

David Kerstens

analyst
#4

I've got 2, please. With regard to the targeted revenue from the Eemshaven facility, I think in June, you indicated this year, you would be at around EUR 75 million to EUR 80 million in revenue. How does that number look now? And do you still expect the ramp-up to EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million next year with the incremental EBITA margin of 40%, so about EUR 40 million in incremental EBIT, but maybe coming in a little bit later? And then the second question on Smart Vision. When you say higher revenues and EBITA in the second half of the year versus the first half, is that an organic statement, organic guidance? And does it imply that year-over-year, it will be lower? And I think in August, you indicated that profitability could recover in Smart Vision to 18% to 19%. Is that still feasible with the continued organic revenue decline in Q3?

J. van der Lof

executive
#5

Yes, I take the question for the Eemshaven. So the turnover will be lower than the EUR 75 million to EUR 80 million. That is related then to the postponement, probably between EUR 15 million and EUR 20 million lower than that we had -- we had on in June. And the EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million is still feasible for next year. And there's some self-help in respect that also partly of orders have been shifted to '25, and that makes the base easier to achieve. And then with Smart Vision, organic growth is not related to last year. And perhaps Elling can take over this answer.

Elling de Lange

executive
#6

Yes. The second half indeed has revenue and EBITA growth on an organic base. So the acquisitions which we did had a relative small impact compared to the delta we're looking for.

David Kerstens

analyst
#7

Yes. So that's versus the first half, but not year-over-year, year-over-year will be lower.

Elling de Lange

executive
#8

That's more or less indeed, correct. And when you talk about the 18% to 19%, that's something definitely which will be back in the quarters to come.

Operator

operator
#9

We will now move to Chase Coughlan of Van Lanschot Kempen.

Chase Coughlan

analyst
#10

Yes. I have 2, maybe do them one at a time, if that's okay. Starting with Vision, you, of course, speak to the large order that you have booked in Q4, which should support earnings there. But could you provide a little bit more commentary and color perhaps about your sort of expectations for the underlying demand there also, that primarily to do with the 3D business? Is order intake inflecting there? Or how are you looking at that also going into 2025?

J. van der Lof

executive
#11

Yes. The large order is, of course, helping in Q4. And some of these orders, they continue even in '25. So that's already a sound foundation for '25. And what we see is that the underlying demand, I already referred to the VDMA report that is not looking to be improved. And I believe it's a good confirmation for us that we invested further in our innovations and in our market position. And that is supporting us to see also new end markets where we are positioned to support growth in the coming quarters. And I believe a better perspective than that we have had or have seen this year as this year, it was still -- our performance was also still too much related, especially in the first 6 months to the difficult market circumstances that we see in the Smart Vision market.

Chase Coughlan

analyst
#12

Okay. Great. And then my second question regarding the fiber optic space. You've, of course, spoken to some destocking here and some price pressure and I suppose some weak underlying demand. And I guess, sort of a similar question to my first, but how long should we expect these several factors actually weigh on the results? Is that also going to extend into the first half '25 or do you expect destocking to destock relatively fast or how are you looking at that?

Elling de Lange

executive
#13

Well, I think one of the elements in this market segment is, of course, the lack of CapEx being deployed by the customers. We've seen that, of course, interest rates have a substantial impact on further deployment. And of course, that's the market which we see gradually coming back as interest rates have dropped. The destocking effect, some customers have substantial stock levels. So it takes a while before they have eaten up that part. But at the same time, we have a lot of self-help, of course, by what we announced at the middle of the year, closing down our fiber optic manufacturing activities in the Netherlands and consolidating everything in the new plant, plant which we opened at the end of last year in Poland. So we are able to compensate some of these effects. And therefore, we believe that we will have a slightly quicker benefit of this than what probably some of the other market parties will have to face with. But we are not talking about the next couple of weeks. It's more that in the first half of '25, the second part of the first half.

Operator

operator
#14

We'll now move to Ruben Devos of Kepler Cheuvreux.

Ruben Devos

analyst
#15

Yes. I just had one follow-up on the sites at Eemshaven. Just want to better understand the decision to slow down the production ramp. I think you mentioned the technical issues with equipment, but could you maybe provide a bit more granularity on that decision? And then considering the combined capacity at Lochem and Eemshaven, were the subsea cable sales actually down year-over-year in Q3? That's my first question.

J. van der Lof

executive
#16

Yes, to come back to your last question related to the Lochem plant, we are today manufacturing even long length cables there, and that is quite unique, and that is having a quite big impact on the output, but it's a good compensation for what we see in the Eemshaven. And we are at a lower turnover than that we were last year in Q3. And yes, the technical issues are really minor issues, but minor issues can have a big impact during your manufacturing. And we choose to have 100% stable manufacturing with no risk of, let's say, waste. And also the timing of the projects gives us this room. And the small issues can be solved quite rapid because there are really small issues, but the small issues can have a big impact.

Ruben Devos

analyst
#17

Okay. And then regarding Smart Vision, how much exposure do you currently have to the solar and battery markets? What is still left there? I understood you're still not very positive on those end markets. You've been targeting new end markets. But yes, how could we think about also maybe projects spilling into second -- the first half next year? So obviously, you have good growth in Q4. I think you mentioned in the past a large order in airports. You also talked about a timing effect in Security Vision, but what is sort of the risk of maybe some projects spilling into first half next year in Smart Vision?

J. van der Lof

executive
#18

I believe the basis is better what we have today than 6 months or 12 months ago. The battery and solar business, it looks like it has been a kind of one-off opportunity. It might be that, that business comes back. But today, it's only a few million turnover that is left in the TKH activities. So the exposure there is very low, more upward potential than downward potential. But again, we have not planned that, that market will come back quite rapid. And yes, the new end markets are really supporting and also driven by our technology position where we can differentiate. And it's the whole package of USPs that is working quite well. And it's also kind of protecting in these markets with the complete service level we offer in the market in combination with the software proposition where most of these systems are plug and play and where we are really unique with what we can offer.

Ruben Devos

analyst
#19

Okay. And then just final question. Was the actual book-to-bill in the last, let's say, 6 months, yes, ahead of your sales or order intake higher than your sales in the last 6 months for Smart Vision?

J. van der Lof

executive
#20

Was around, let's say, 1. And -- but we also have to take into account that the delivery times are really short, and that has an effect on, let's say, also your order intake and the order book. We can now supply within sometimes even days, with weeks instead of 6 months or 9 months in the previous period. And that has an effect on the order book. So you cannot just look at the ratio. And I believe if you normalize, then you would even see that the ratio of orders coming in, in relation to turnover is looking better.

Operator

operator
#21

We'll now move to Martijn den Drijver of ABN AMRO.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#22

Yes. I'd like to come back as my first question to the Eemshaven. So based on what you see today, would it be fair to assume a single-digit EBITA loss for subsea? And in relation to that, you didn't quite answer the second part of David's question, EUR 160 million, EUR 170 million, EUR 180 million might be realizable. But is that EBITA margin of 14%, 15% also realizable? And then my third question on subsea is, is there any impact that you see now? And I realize it's early days, but that the Trump election could do something with your order book and sales funnel?

J. van der Lof

executive
#23

For the Eemshaven or...

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#24

For subsea.

J. van der Lof

executive
#25

Okay. I don't believe that will have a negative impact, but we have to see how everything develops. I believe it's for many still a big question mark what the effect of the elections will be, the result of the election. Yes, coming back to Eemshaven, the margins, we are developing in a sound way, and we will be able to achieve margins above what you just mentioned in the current plan for the coming year, and the order portfolio we see related to that with the, again, EUR 170 million to EUR 180 million turnover.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#26

Okay. And then so to rephrase it, should we -- in terms of the delta between the 2 years, a loss in 2024 versus what you just mentioned for 2025, that's realizable, that's realistic? Just want to get a sense...

J. van der Lof

executive
#27

We have -- to be honest, we have put a kind of plan B to derisk, and that is that we have at least organized that Lochem will be available during the first quarter to support to grow as quick as possible to at least 50 kilometers per month production. So that's kind of derisking. On the other side, there's also cost involved. But the overall picture is that we will be able to achieve higher than 15% margins there. And that, yes, we are making this year a loss, and it's close to double-digit.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#28

Got it. And just one follow-up on that Trump remark. Obviously, we don't know the impact, but let me rephrase, how many projects do you have in the U.S. in your backlog, if any?

J. van der Lof

executive
#29

You also have to realize that we have local manufacturing in the U.S. that for the Vision Group, we can quite quickly organize what is necessary if there would be import duties. And we see besides that, the tire manufacturing business and let's say, the Smart Manufacturing is positioned in the U.S. and it's a quite unique technology where there is no local manufacturer at this moment. And we believe that we can -- if there will be import duties that the customer will pay in the anti -- the import duties. And in that respect, we don't see a big impact.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#30

Okay. Clear. Moving on, you mentioned progress on cost savings. The target was EUR 15 million. How much do you think you will have realized in 2024?

J. van der Lof

executive
#31

In '24, it is a very small percentage of the EUR 15 million. And Elling already mentioned with the fiber optic. So we have decided plant in the Netherlands. That is all, let's say, prepared and announced internally. And -- but that will kick in, in the second quarter of 2025. And there, we have in total for the Connectivity business around EUR 10 million saving. And I would say that you take into account that, that will come in, in the second quarter and not yet in the first quarter and not yet in this year. And savings have been realized, but that is around EUR 2 million, EUR 3 million on an annual basis that will also kick in, in Q4.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#32

And that's predominantly obviously in Smart Connectivity?

J. van der Lof

executive
#33

Yes.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#34

Okay. And my final question, also about Smart Connectivity. You don't mention anything about onshore energy destocking and demand projects being delayed or slowly getting back up. Where do we stand today on that onshore energy part of the business?

J. van der Lof

executive
#35

I believe there has been made a comment in the press release in the outlook that the onshore business looks better in Q4. And we also have to -- have been able to secure #1 position in several tenders. So that is a good confirmation. I'm not that positive about the market that it will be a strong recovery in 2025. We start about 12 months ago now, this further activities outside of the Netherlands, and that is actually where we see the growth for next year and only for a small part in the Netherlands. And we have received good confirmation about, especially in the high-voltage market that there are opportunities, especially because of the fact that there is a shortage in supply. So yes, that is in our current budget now for '25 to get in the end on a growth path for onshore. We have the capacity available. And yes, we have good facilities that are also rewarded in a very positive way from the potential customers that we are in talks with.

Operator

operator
#36

We will now be going to Michael Roeg of Degroof Petercam.

Michael Roeg

analyst
#37

I have 2 questions. The first one is also on Eemshaven. Can you provide us with some sort of a time frame for those start-up costs and technical issues to be fully solved, say, will that be in the first half next year, second half next year? And in addition to that, when do you expect the full operational efficiency of the Eemshaven plant without having to also operate that second plant in Lochem?

J. van der Lof

executive
#38

Yes, the good news is that we are making good progress and that the current situation that we are running. And -- but we have seen that in August kind of the price came up with a small issue that in the end has a big impact. And so we cannot give 100% guarantee if there will be no other small issues, and that is mainly related to the [indiscernible] in the [ eating ]. You need to have higher utilization and more [Technical Difficulty] to be manufactured to have the certainty that everything is running smooth. Our current projection is that it could be running smooth in the first half year. And my current guess is that it might take in the end, the smaller issues, but not completely disturbing the output, but let's say, for less impactful situations. And again, with the additional capacity from Lochem, we should be able to manufacture the 50-kilometer.

Michael Roeg

analyst
#39

Okay. But you mentioned first half next year largely solved. Will that mean that during the entire year, you will keep Lochem as sort of a backup facility with sort of a double cost structure? Or will you start scaling it down a bit in Lochem?

J. van der Lof

executive
#40

Planned for the first half year. And if we see, let's say, if the manufacturing continues as it is doing now, we can, of course, bring down the capacity at an earlier stage. It could also be that at first, we even want to manufacture higher -- more than the 50-kilometer to have also a kind of buffer situation. And so there we're more optimistic. The target is to get to the EUR 170 million, EUR 180 million turnover that coming year. And the impact is about EUR 6 million to EUR 8 million additional cost that we have to bear to achieve that. And there is no upside at this point of time related to the cost, it's more a downside opportunity if everything continues to run smooth.

Michael Roeg

analyst
#41

[Technical Difficulty] costs, if I look at your quarterly numbers on sales, gross margin and operating profit, excluding exceptionals, then I can calculate your underlying operating costs without exceptionals. And in Q1 and Q2, they were fairly similar around EUR 177 million per quarter, and then they suddenly dropped to EUR 160 million in Q3. What happened? And is there more potential? Well, you mentioned the EUR 15 million program, but I think that's probably more for your cost of sales instead of the OpEx. So what is happening there exactly?

Elling de Lange

executive
#42

Well, we always have a little bit of that kind of pattern. Third quarter has a little bit of a different profile in terms of working days. So that has some impact on some cost items. But of course, also here, we had the divestment of EKB. And of course, also through the period of H1, we had gradually the divestment of HE as well. So in the like-for-like, these are items you have to take into account as well. Indeed, the EUR 15 million, that's much more, as Alexander also mentioned, towards [ '25 ]. So that's not the reason why OpEx is down. And of course, the fact that revenue is at a lower level, also that affects some cost items that you see it back in a lower OpEx.

Michael Roeg

analyst
#43

Okay. So there's a little bit of variable explanation. But if I look at, for instance, Q1 sales and Q3 sales, they're not hugely apart. And of course, there's always some M&A impact. But then EUR 177 million versus EUR 160 million seems like quite a steep drop. So yes, that's what got me thinking what's happening. So this EUR 160 million, it's not necessarily the new normal going forward or for Q4, when you expect a good, very good Q4, let's say, sales-wise as well versus Q3, then you will not automatically have that EUR 160 million in your OpEx.

Elling de Lange

executive
#44

It will be nice if that would happen, but that's not how it works. There is still a relation between the revenue levels and some of the OpEx, which we have. And of course, as I said, I mean, we did a lot of steps in order to bring down on the structural level, the OpEx, but that's not yet in the second half of this year. So it's -- third quarter OpEx is not a good revenue, but it's not a good reference for the coming quarters.

Operator

operator
#45

We'll now be taking Maarten Verbeek of The Idea.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#46

It's Maarten Verbeek from The Idea. Firstly, you mentioned that you expect your order book to be more or less the same level at year-end '24 compared to '23, if I understood you well. Have you taken account in the statement the signing of these new contracts in -- for Eemshaven to be signed shortly?

J. van der Lof

executive
#47

Yes, we have taken into account that we have there.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#48

Okay, but -- okay, fine. But then more or less, the order book of SES will increase that more or less also would indicate that your order book for Smart Manufacturing will come down a little bit compared to last year. Is that a fair conclusion?

J. van der Lof

executive
#49

That could be possible, yes.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#50

Okay.

J. van der Lof

executive
#51

[Technical Difficulty] really high because of the fact that we had built up the order book, [Technical Difficulty], let's say, delivery. So that one-off effect we had by the end of last year, that will be, let's say, normalized and that could be because of that, then the order book in the Smart Manufacturing is somewhat lower. And we did 2 divestments there. We also have to take into account.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#52

Normally, you already provided your backlog full year and half year, and as of first quarter, you also mentioned the backlog in absolute terms. This quarter, you did not. So are you willing to disclose your order book at this stage at the end of Q3?

Elling de Lange

executive
#53

No, I mean, if you look at the current scope of our activities, we have more and more projects coming in, and we will disclose more about the, let's say, order intake also in the subsea with the specific projects which we acquire. We have decided that it's better to do this on a half year basis in terms of disclosure and during the half year to give you an update on the actual project intake. We see a lot of, let's say, in the year signing contracts within a period of September to October. This kind of effects, I think, will get a little bit out of balance or taken out of context. And that's why we have decided to move towards a half year publication. But in the meantime, as I said, we'll have some more disclosure on the wins during the quarter itself.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#54

Okay. Concerning your funnel of 52 projects over 9,000 kilometers of inter-array, that has been unchanged compared to the previous quarter. Is it also fair to conclude that you were not working on any contract in the Swedish orders?

J. van der Lof

executive
#55

No, not on these contracts. Now the [ 13 ] you mean, that have been canceled.

Maarten Verbeek

analyst
#56

Yes, correct. And then lastly, from my side at this moment, apparently there's also a kind of delay in producing those inter-array cables. Is there a chance that you might -- are you still able to deliver on time? Or is there a chance that you might be faced with a penalty for late delivery?

J. van der Lof

executive
#57

At this moment, [Technical Difficulty].

Operator

operator
#58

Next question will be coming from Thibault Leneeuw of KBC Securities.

Thibault Leneeuw

analyst
#59

I'm just looking towards the guidance, the outlook for full year '24. If you basically look at the currently year-to-date achieved EBITA, then basically for the fourth quarter, you basically expect an increase at the low end of the guidance of around EUR 20 million in the EBITA. That seems quite a lot. So that basically would mean that you're very confident on the projects in the Vision segment and in the Connectivity.

Elling de Lange

executive
#60

I can look at it in different ways. I mean you can -- you're quite right, actually, if you use a certain reference point in the bandwidth. The other point is, of course, that the delta, which is partly caused by a poorer third quarter, leads, of course, to a substantial uptake for the fourth quarter. But that's on the back also of what we discussed earlier, some of the larger projects, which we have anticipated to be in the fourth quarter as well. So from that point of view, I mean the fourth quarter, as you can see from the previous years as well, carries a fairly high EBITA ticket. And we have some help this year with, of course, the -- as disclosed earlier, the larger contracts, which are going to be supplied within the Vision segment in the end of the year.

Thibault Leneeuw

analyst
#61

And then second question is with respect to the gained market share. You mentioned on the onshore segment that there you seem to be getting some market share. Where exactly are you gaining market share and what is the statement based on?

J. van der Lof

executive
#62

This is related to...

Elling de Lange

executive
#63

Onshore...

J. van der Lof

executive
#64

Yes, the international position where we have not been very active because we had 100% utilization of our capacity. And there are big opportunities. This is a multibillion market. And we are not looking for EUR 1 billion turnover. We are looking for, let's say, EUR 30 million to EUR 50 million turnover to make a big step in our utilization, and that looks quite promising.

Thibault Leneeuw

analyst
#65

And then a final question. given a lot of divestments and investments in 2024, how should we look at the depreciation levels in '24 and '25? What do you think should be a normalized depreciation level going forward? Just a small bookkeeping question.

Elling de Lange

executive
#66

Well, we're not guiding on individual cost line items. But of course, if you look at our CapEx program, clearly, we have completed by far, the strategic investment program already earlier this year. So from that point of view, there is on the CapEx side, a more normalized level going forward. And of course, with the newly established facilities as part of the strategic investment program, there will be a further uptake in divestments. But I'm not going to give you a specific line item on the depreciation, for example, of the Eemshaven, that goes a little too far.

Operator

operator
#67

We will now go to David Kerstens calling from Jefferies.

David Kerstens

analyst
#68

I'm still struggling to understand the guidance for organic sales for full year '24 to be relatively stable. You already indicated that Smart Vision in the second half will likely be lower. Smart Manufacturing, I think the comp in the fourth quarter will be even more challenging than in Q3. Does it mean that the recovery should all come from Smart Connectivity and you would actually have to assume quite a big delta to get to stable organic revenues for the year? Can you give some indication on how you see that in the second half year-over-year, please, not versus the first half?

Elling de Lange

executive
#69

Well, if you look at Smart Manufacturing, there, of course, year-on-year, the upswing, which we have seen in the last couple of quarters and also the fact that we have -- and you might have seen that maybe in the outlook, we have a little bit more positive tune to the outlook on the Smart Manufacturing in the sense that it's slightly lower. And at H1, we mentioned lower. So there is a little bit more positive delta coming in that particular area. I think that's one of the areas where maybe you might be a little on the low side.

David Kerstens

analyst
#70

And what do you assume for Smart Connectivity in Q4 organic growth to get to stable revenue for the full year?

Elling de Lange

executive
#71

Well, if you look at -- not again on the individual quarters, but if you look at Smart Connectivity then in the second half, top line is more or less with some bandwidth in line with the first half. I hope that gives you enough information to make your analysis on this. Of course, the largest delta as a result of the divestments have been within Connectivity. We have disclosed in the press release and one of the footnotes, the exact details on how much that has been.

David Kerstens

analyst
#72

No, but I was referring only to organic growth. So you're guiding for flat organic growth for the year. So organically for the fourth quarter, you would need quite a big improvement. And you already indicated that Smart Vision will likely be lower in the second half. So the increase there in the fourth quarter is maybe only 8% at best offsetting the decline in Q3. If you compare Smart Manufacturing in Q4, it's even more challenging than in Q3. So the minus 0.2% in Q3 will likely be worse in Q4. And then to get to flat for the year, you need to have a huge uptick in Smart Connectivity. Is that realistic to assume?

Elling de Lange

executive
#73

But David, on your first question about half an hour ago, you referred to the full year comparison in Smart Vision. And on the full year comparison, it's slightly lower. But that means that H2 this year is substantially higher than H1, and especially Q4, because that's where also the [Technical Difficulty] are going out.

Operator

operator
#74

[Operator Instructions] Our next question now will be coming from Martijn den Drijver of ABN AMRO.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#75

Yes. I just wanted to come back to Smart Manufacturing. Can you talk a little bit about the order intake in the quarter and perhaps also the behavior of your customers? It's not like they're not facing some challenges with OE volumes down and lower EV growth. So can you talk a little bit about the behavior of your clients in Smart Manufacturing order intake?

J. van der Lof

executive
#76

Yes, nothing has really changed compared to the previous quarters in respect of the behavior. We have already seen for a longer period, I believe it's more than 12 months, 18 months that the Tier 1s have not been very active, and that has not changed. I believe even in your report, you made a remark about that. And so the Tier 2 and Tier 3s are doing quite well. And for the whole year, we are still looking at a very high, let's say, order intake for the year, probably a little bit lower than the whole year last year, but also still some very exciting projects that we have never seen before. They are not yet in the book. It's not yet 100% that they will come. But also that gives a quite good perspective if we would be able to win one of these bigger projects that are coming from also even new customers.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#77

And are those related to the UNIXX lineup or is that just a mix of the...

J. van der Lof

executive
#78

That's a mix.

Martijn den Drijver

analyst
#79

That's a mix. Okay. And is there anything else you might like to add about the UNIXX and the developments, more customers testing the unit? Or anything that could help us understand that transition into the full commercialization of that product?

J. van der Lof

executive
#80

We're making really good progress, especially also with respect to the modules that we are, yes, penetrating further and further in the industry with a lot of [ pride ] to do these investments. And yes, we are making very good progress with one key customer and others are in the pipeline.

Operator

operator
#81

[Operator Instructions] We do not appear to have any further questions coming in at this time. Mr. van der Lof, I'd like to pass the call back over to you for any additional or closing remarks. Thank you.

J. van der Lof

executive
#82

Yes. Many thanks for your attendance and the good interaction we had in this conference call. Yes, I'd like to wish you all a successful day and hope to see and speak to you in the coming months.

Operator

operator
#83

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this will end today's conference call. We thank you for your attendance. You may now disconnect. Have a good day, and goodbye.

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