Tokio Marine Holdings, Inc. (8766) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for waiting. My name is Ishiguro from the IR Group. Now I'd like to start the telephone conference regarding the fiscal 2020 results and fiscal 2021 projections of Tokio Marine Holdings. As for the proceedings, I will be using the presentation material and the new release posted on our website to give you a presentation for a little over 10 minutes. Afterwards, I will be receiving questions from the audience. I hope you are okay with the proceedings. Prior to starting the telephone conference, I have a disclaimer to make. Please be noted that the presentation we make today contains business projections and forecasts which accompany risks and uncertainties. Please be informed in advance that the actual results may differ from the projections. This meeting is offered with a recording service. Now I'd like to move on to the main points of fiscal 2020 results. Please turn to Page 3 of the materials. First, let me explain about net premiums written, which is our top line. For fiscal 2020, it was plus 0.2% year-on-year. And without the FX effect, it was plus 2.7% growth in top line. The breakdown is as follows: in the Domestic P&C business, impact of COVID-19 and CALI rate cuts were offset by rate revisions for auto and fire insurances as well as expanded new policy sales. Domestic P&C had a year-on-year positive 0.6% growth. In the Overseas business, decline in premium due to COVID-19 and profitability-focused underwriting was offset with rate increases and expansion of disciplined underwriting at each entity. On a local currency basis, net premiums written increased by 7.7%. Now I'd like to talk about projections for fiscal 2021, where we project year-on-year plus 4.3% growth from fiscal 2020. Excluding FX, we are projecting plus 2.2% growth in net premiums written. The breakdown is as follows. In the Domestic P&C business, there will be some impact of CALI rate cuts, which will be offset by rebound from COVID-19, rate revision and product division as well as execution of growth measures, which should make fiscal 2021 to be flat from 2020. In the Overseas business, we are planning on rate increase mainly in North America and will be more risk taking, assuming hardening of the market. We should expect net premiums written increase by 6% year-on-year on local currency basis. As you can see, our recent business situation remains to be well. Next, I'd like to talk about life insurance premium. For the fiscal 2020 results in the Overseas business, life insurance premiums grew by 6.5% on local currency basis due to brisk sales performance of TMHCC medical stop-loss products. Domestically, we saw brisk sales of new products, which was countered by surrender in corporate insurance. And life insurance premiums fell by 4.5%. Overall, life insurance premiums fell by 2.7% year-on-year. Or excluding FX, it declined by 0.7%. For fiscal 2021 projections, Overseas will be almost flat year-on-year excluding FX impact. And domestically, we expect continuation of surrender in corporate insurance. Therefore, overall, we are projecting year-on-year minus 2.6%; and excluding FX, negative 4.9% year-on-year is expected. Next, I would like to talk about bottom line, which is consolidated net income according to financial accounting. Please turn to Page 4. In fiscal 2020, we recorded consolidated net income of JPY 161.8 billion, declined by JPY 97.9 billion year-on-year. On top of the COVID-19 impact, fiscal 2020 was largely impacted by technicalities of various reserve requirements, results being lower than the original projection is also due to the same reason. Now I will explain the important point by breaking it down to each business. In Domestic non-life business, brisk growth of top line continues in private line of insurance. And there was also some improvement of loss ratio as part of the COVID-19 impact. However, there was a bigger burden of reserve provisions, more than the improvement amount of net incurred losses. Therefore, on a year-on-year basis, we saw product decline by JPY 7.1 billion. In the Domestic life business, new product sales was brisk, and there was also some decline in systems development costs. So they saw JPY 11.8 billion year-on-year increase in profit. In International business, in fiscal 2019, there was provisioning of reserve after PHLY to counter the impact of social inflation, and there was a reaction from that in fiscal 2020. There were also some other factors leading to increase in profit, such as some rate increase and newly consolidating Pure. But COVID-19 was a major impact and saw profit decline by JPY 106.9 billion year-on-year. As for adjusted net income, which serves as the source of shareholder return, we take the financial accounting net income and deduct catastrophe loss reserve, which was a factor for a decline in profit for the domestic business and also impacted goodwill. Adjusted net income was positive JPY 49.9 billion year-on-year and up plus JPY 4.1 billion versus the plan. As I have explained, fiscal 2020 has a lot of one-off factors and was impacted by some technical factors, which make it a little difficult to understand the underlying situation. Evaluation of the underlying performance of the business will be explained in more detail next week at the IR conference. But for today, as you can see, with the Others part of the adjusted net income, it is obvious that our underlying capability is improving, although we still have some issues to tackle such as Domestic fire insurance. Let me now take you through our fiscal year 2021 bottom line projections. Please turn to Page 5. Financial accounting-based consolidated net income is expected to increase by twofold year-over-year to JPY 315 billion. The breakdown is, while investment for growth is to be increased in domestic non-life, increase in income of JPY 64.4 billion year-over-year is expected, owing to the continued increase in income trend coupled with reactionary impact from COVID-19 in the previous year as well as increase in reserves. For domestic life, initial cost will increase due to sales growth, but steady income contribution from in-force policies increase of JPY 0.7 billion in net income year-over-year is expected. In International insurance business, the impact of COVID will be felt such as decrease in reserves due to lower yields and drop in investment income gains as well as minor but outstanding COVID-related claims. However, profit growth of Pure and improved profits due to rate increases together with reactionary impact of COVID recognized in FY '20, increase of JPY 95.2 billion in net income year-over-year is our guidance. Next is our capital resource for shareholder return, an increase of JPY 24.3 billion year-over-year in adjusted net income, which deducts impact of various reserves, so financial accounting-based results is expected. From the perspective of improving transparency and comparability, changes in definition such as provision of underwriting results for the first year and deduction of provision of catastrophe loss reserves remained strong fiscal '21. Please refer to Page 36 for details later. For your reference, under the former definition, fiscal year '21 projection will be JPY 451 billion without provision for nat cat underwriting reserves and reversal effect of provision for underwriting results for the first year. Page 6 shows impact of COVID-19, and Page 7 shows natural catastrophes in fiscal year '20 as well as budget for FY '21. Please refer to them later. Lastly, let me cover our capital policy. Please jump to Page 30. First of all, our medium- to long-term target, as you know very well, is adjusted net income of JPY 500 billion or more and adjusted ROE of around 12%. Needless to say, our capital policy underpins our efforts to achieve this target. This time around, in order to better represent our investment in shareholder return capacity, we've revised our ESR to exclude restricted capital and set the new ESR target range as 100% to 140%. Page 31 shows our recent ESR level, 127% as of end of March 2021, which is an appropriate level. Therefore, while our policy to prioritize growth investment to achieve our medium- and long-term target remain unchanged, we will not seek growth for the sake of numbers. We will be selective in deals that are conducive to enhancing corporate value. If there are no good deals, we will implement shareholder return. As such, a disciplined capital policy will be implemented. As for shareholder return, in this context, our basic policy is ordinary dividend, and our stance to increase it sustainably in line with profit growth has not changed. Ordinary dividend in FY '21 was JPY 215, up JPY 15 per share, making an increase in dividend for 10 years in a row. We will continue to stick to a steady EPS increase. As for capital level adjustment, as described in the press release, the company has decided to set an annual budget to ensure greater transparency. Budget for FY '21 is set at JPY 100 billion. And this sum improves an amount for small- and medium-sized M&A such as bolt-on acquisitions aligned with their policy to prioritize growth investment. Capital level adjustment will be made flexibly during the term without necessarily waiting until the end of the year. Having said that, however, the company will execute M&As if there is a prime opportunity. The sum may exceed the budget. The company also plans to positively consider large M&As regardless of this budget. In other words, our recent ESR is within an appropriate range. Flow income will be allocated to investment and return while seeking to achieve our medium- and long-term target of over JPY 500 billion in adjusted net income and around 12% in adjusted ROE. The amount of the budget is subject to change with any substantial changes in the environment such as financial crisis or significant changes in economic circumstances. Shareholder return will be explained in detail at the IR briefing for the first half scheduled for next week. Lastly, but not least, the periods covered by the previous midterm plan was challenging for our business with natural catastrophes, COVID and low interest rates, to name a few. What did we learn? And what do we achieve in spite of that? What initiatives will the company implement? And what outcomes will we aim for quantitatively in the new midterm plans? This will be covered thoroughly in the IR briefing next week. Make sure you keep yourselves posted. At any rate, the company will steadily implement the business strategy to achieve the midterm goal and strive to respond to the expectations of the capital market. Your continued understanding and support is greatly appreciated. That is all for me, and I am happy to take questions in the remaining time.

[Operator Instructions] From SMBC Nikko, Mr. Muraki, please ask your questions.

My name is Muraki. My first large question is regarding shareholder return. So ESR, 127%, that's what you have now. Why in the second half for the -- why did you skip the capital adjustment in the second half and also for this new fiscal year? For capital adjustment plus investment budget, why are you only setting JPY 100 billion? Because if you go with the speed, when your ESR is 127%, 1 year later, it should be as high as 133%. Why are you trying to raise ESR? That is my first large question. My second question is about domestic auto line of business. How should we interpret the trend of its profitability? For fiscal 2019, '20 and then in fiscal 2021, the level of the underwriting profit for auto and also the catastrophe loss reserve plus the -- by adding the initial underwriting balance for the initial year, when you add those in, what does your profitability look like for auto?

Thank you for your question. On the first point about the shareholder return, in the second half, well, we had 127%. We skipped the adjustment in the second half. And then why we decided on this JPY 100 billion of budget for the new year, Gojo-san from the corporate planning will be answering your question.

From the corporate planning of Tokio Marine Holdings, my name is Gojo. To answer your first question, so in the second half of the year, we did not do the capital adjustments. And why did we skip doing this is your question. And within that, what will be the trend of the ESR going forward? So that was my interpretation of your question. So this time, as we enter into the new midterm plan, and next week, we will be explaining more about this midterm plan, which will include details of our shareholder return policy accompanying the new midterm plan. But from my side, as of today, I would like to speak as much as I can. So as we have news released, so as long as ESR is sitting within the target range, basically, we wanted to prioritize business investments. And therefore, capital adjustment in the first half and second half, so 2 times a year looking at the market environment, business investment opportunities and other factors comprehensively, we wanted to do the capital adjustment in a flexible manner. On the other hand, regarding this policy, we have spoken with various stakeholders and exchanged views. And this first half versus second half 2-times-a-year timing, the various expectations that people have and our decision were something in line with what the market expected. Sometimes they were not necessarily aligned. And some people pointed out that it was difficult to understand or difficult to estimate. And so we did have an understanding that they had some issues. So that is why this time we wanted to enhance transparency. We wanted to have a better understanding by the market. And therefore, we have decided to change the way we set the policies for the capital adjustment and have decided to allocate a budget each -- for the year to do the capital adjustment. And so first half versus second half, it is true that we skipped the second half, but that borderline was reviewed versus -- the first half versus second half. We have one budget for the whole year, and that's what we plan to spend for capital adjustments. Therefore, the budget we have for the capital adjustment, which is going to be JPY 100 billion, was decided. And we will be spending it on -- both on top of M&A and other capital adjustment measures. As Ishiguro-san mentioned for the flow profit for the medium-term, anything over and above what we expect to see, we would allocate that for shareholder return in a prioritized manner. As for ESR, while we have 127%, and if this continues with the same speed, it should accumulate more and more profit. So if 127% becomes 133%, that's what you mentioned, but I do not have the same number according to my calculation, but I just wanted to explain what we are thinking of doing in terms of shareholder return. So shareholder return, there was ordinary shareholder return by dividend payments and this dividend payout, and we take the average adjusted net income to calculate the dividend payout. And based on that, we decide on the dividend amount per share each year. And while we did that, according to our projections for the adjusted net income, we calculate the average adjusted net income. And within that, as Ishiguro-san mentioned, the average adjusted net income, that has to be -- that will be spent for the medium -- the short- to medium-term business investment and shareholder return. And as you questioned, as we have shown with expected dividend payment for this year, out of this budget about half is going to be paid for ordinary dividend payment. And therefore, the remainder is going to be business investment and shareholder return other than dividend payment. And so we want to do some good business investment. Also under the new midterm plan and also M&A, we will continue to be proactive. So based on such views, what we spend this year is going to be JPY 100 billion, and that is what we are setting as budget for fiscal 2021. As for the movement of ESR level of the adjusted net income, for example, there will be some gains from sales of business-related equities. That's already part of the asset. And so that will not be counted as increasing the net asset. And that's a little bit of a technical matter that will be involved as well. That concludes my answer to you.

So profitability of the auto insurance, '19, '20 and '21, what's the growth underwriting balance? And also by excluding the reserve, what is the underlying profitability of the auto insurance? I'd like to answer that question. My name is [ Okada ] from the corporate accounting department. And so the actual underwriting profit from fiscal 2019, JPY 97.1 billion, '20 was JPY 78.7 billion, '21 was JPY 108.6 billion. And underwriting balance of the initial year and also excluding various reserves, 2019, it was JPY 88.6 billion; fiscal '20, JPY 172.3 billion; '21 was JPY 84 billion. That concludes my answer to your question.

So regarding the first point, originally, when the ESR level was raised, then instead of amounting more and more internal reserve, I believe it was being adjusted in the past. And so there was a high level of reliance to how you adjust your capital. However, it is right now over the year 127%. And if you simply spend JPY 100 billion, I think your ESR is going to go up. And when that happens, would you be spending more than JPY 100 billion for capital adjustment? And will that happen within this new fiscal year? So can we just continue with how you have done it before? So this is just to enhance transparency. And you are showing JPY 100 billion as a starting point, but you are not tied to this number of specifically JPY 100 billion. I just want to confirm the point in your stance for capital adjustment.

Again, my name is Gojo from corporate planning of Tokio Marine Holdings. So thank you for your additional questions. So compared to what we have done in the past, so we look at the level of ESR, do the capital adjustment. We do that more meticulously now. And so as the name suggests, this is to adjust the capital level. And so there is no change to our policy that we constantly look at the level of the capital and do adjustments. As you all point out, if this budget -- for example, if there is bigger profits that we make this year than what we expected, so if we end up seeing bigger profit than what we expect and although we have this JPY 100 billion of budget, and if we lack any opportunities for doing M&A this year, then that should raise our ESR level. So you have a correct understanding on that point. So if ESR continues to go up, then what do we do? Our activities will not change. And so the ESR level is higher, we look at the market environment. We look at the business opportunity -- investment opportunities, and then when we set the budget for next year, those factors will be considered for setting a new budget. And if ESR exceeds 140% level, then similar to what we have done in the past, in case we go over that threshold of 140%, then we have to be implementing some investment. Or if we cannot find a good M&A opportunity, then we would have to be spending that capital for capital adjustment. So that can be a promise to you.

Next question is from Mitsubishi UFJ Securities, Tsujino-san.

Well, to start with shareholder returns. During the term, how should we interpret based on opportunities for bolt-on, you say, but we have like 6 months until November, for example. Like we've seen in the past, will you be suggesting of a particular amount? Or since the budget is only JPY 100 billion, will you be able to make some kind of a decision within that budget? It's just that you're making this decision at this moment, 127%, JPY 100 billion. In the next few years, if profit significantly grows or if nothing changes or when nothing changes over the next few years, I guess you will raise that budget. But if the market improves and for other reasons and if ESR exceeds 140%, there will be good thing -- big things. But otherwise, the largest amount, the budget maximum is JPY 100 billion. Now we learned that, and Gojo-san's explanation, I didn't quite get his point. And my next point is adjusted underwriting profit is increasing. Excluding nat cat, it looks like it's going to deteriorate quite significantly. So auto in fiscal 2020, somewhat improvement. And of that improvement, how much is going to recover according to your estimate assumptions? That is my question.

Thank you very much for your questions. The first question on shareholder returns, to be flexibly implementing during the term, but how is it going to be implemented, that's your question. And also after fiscal 2020, how should we -- how should you look at the budget? Let me ask Gojo-san from the corporate planning department to respond to those questions.

This is Gojo from corporate planning department of Tokio Marine Holdings. Tsujino-san, thank you very much for your questions. So this is a related question. Now the JPY 100 billion, the newly set budget, how it's going to be used in terms of our actual operations. If there is no possibility of bolt-on type M&A towards the end of the year, how will we be operating the JPY 100 billion in budget? Well, to respond to that question, this is the very first time that we are implementing, and although we do have some ideas, we're thinking of going through a trial and error process. And as you correctly pointed out, the timing of bolt-on type acquisition is, for example, being able to have visibility 1 year in advance. That is not the case with bolt-on type M&A's. And therefore, when it comes to capital level adjustment to be conducted within this budget of JPY 100 billion, in light of taking into consideration accumulation of profit and the business environment, the business investment that we have visibility on and conduct a capital level adjustment is sometime during the year. And let's say to the second half of the year, a certain level of bolt-on type acquisition deal comes out, then we could exceed JPY 100 billion of the budget. I guess that is your question. When that kind of situation comes out, we will be implementing business investment, and this business -- this JPY 100 billion in budget is not only for business investment. Maybe same time next year, when we look back, the capital level adjustment that we implemented this year and the bolt-on acquisition, medium- and small-sized investment that we make, the total amount could exceed JPY 100 billion. Yes, it could exceed. That is a possibility that we will bear in mind. That is all for me.

And I think there was another question which was about beyond next year?

Yes. Yes. Next year -- beyond next year, will you be, I guess, tied up with the JPY 100 billion, calling for a maximum of JPY 100 billion in budget unless ESR will surge above 140%? You've said that the share buyback maximum amount is going to be JPY 100 billion. That is the message, I guess, primarily speaking.

Well, thank you very much for your question. This is a newly introduced idea, and we will continue to get the feedback from the market participants like yourselves. And its approach that we are going to introduce has proved to be effective, we will continue. But as for the amount of the budget and how to implement it, we look forward to receiving feedback so that we can make some amendments beyond next year. The second question, adjusted net income for last year and this year is fluctuating, but -- Okada-san from corporate accounting department will take this question.

In the earlier question, I think you said auto insurance, and therefore, I would like to respond by referring to auto insurance. In the earlier question from Muraki-san, underwriting profit for fiscal 2020 was JPY 78.7 billion, for fiscal 2021 is JPY 108.6 billion. This is the actual amount, JPY 180 billion. And excluding the reserves, JPY 172.3 billion for 2020, and 2021 it's JPY 84 billion. So as for the trend in underwriting process, fiscal '20 to '21, what is significant in impact at the end of the day is excluding the provisions and reserves, various reserves, there is a reversal from net incurred losses in fiscal 2020. The loss ratio of 54.3% was a loss ratio. And 2020 was 61.1% -- is 61.1%. So 6.7 percentage points of reversal is expected. 60.8% was in fiscal 2019. And our projections for 2021, basically, it's quite similar. It's an increase by about 0.3 point. But for fiscal '21, we're expecting the loss ratio to return to the same level as back in 2019.

I see. I think you are including nat cat. But excluding nat cat, under the new definition, without nat cat, I think it was JPY 194 billion, JPY 192 billion or JPY 200 billion. It's an improvement of JPY 40 billion year-over-year -- JPY 49.3 billion year-over-year. And is this primarily from auto? This is my question.

So what you're referring to is the -- in relation to impact from nat cat?

I wanted to look at the numbers, in actual numbers instead of percentage, and your explanation doesn't give me confidence. So JPY 192 billion, JPY 192.4 billion, excluding nat cat, underwriting profit for 2022. For the fiscal year 2020 was JPY 293 billion. So it's an improvement or deterioration of JPY 49.3 billion year-over-year. And is this primarily coming from auto? That's my question.

I see. So from 2020 to 2021, the deterioration, the large part is from auto, the increase in net incurred losses, basically, a reversal impact from COVID-19. This accounts for the large part.

From Daiwa, Mr. Watanabe, please ask your question.

My name is Watanabe from Daiwa. I have 2 questions for you. The first is about the adjustment of the capital level. As for the timing of executing this, the calculation of ESR was done first. And then I believe you decided on the capital adjustment. But if you don't need to regard that, then it's not just the first and third quarter, so but you should have the flexibility to be able to do the capital adjustment anytime in any year. Is that correct? Most recently, SLL (sic) [ SSL ] company, the investment to SLL (sic) [ SSL ] was announced. Is this part of this JPY 100 billion? And as for the impact of fiscal 2021, if I judge from Page 5, I believe it is about 315 -- or JPY 31.5 billion. So is the amount going to be about half of what you had last year?

As for the timing for the capital adjustment and also whether if SSL is included in the JPY 100 billion or not, Mr. Gojo will answer your question.

Watanabe-san, thank you for your question. As for the timing for doing the capital adjustment, yes, up until now, it was done first in first half and then second in second half. And those are the 2 timings in any year to do the capital adjustments. But as you commented, from fiscal 2021, we will be doing this within this budget, and we will have more flexibility with timing. So it's not necessarily just the one is in first half and then again in second half. We are not tied to those 2 timings in a year to do it. The second question regarding Standard Security Life company, SSL, that we have announced, is this already included in JPY 100 billion budget or not was your question. So the total budget that we have announced this time, we have considered any deals that we have disclosed already in setting the budget. And so the consumption of the budget is going to be anything that may occur from today, which is the timing of the announcement, until the end of the fiscal year. And therefore, the Standard Security Life acquisition case that we have already announced is not included in the JPY 100 billion budget that we have announced in news release today.

Second question about the COVID-19 impact for 2021, Mr. Tao from the corporate accounting of Tokio Marine Holdings will be answering your question.

My name is Tao. If you go to Page 5, if you look at the adjusted net income for 2021, I guess that was your question of the impact of COVID-19. If you look at this waterfall, you were asking whether if the impact of COVID-19 for 2021 was JPY 31 billion. The way you look at the waterfall is that JPY 31 billion, I guess, is for both Domestic and International put together. But as you can see here, for 2020, there's going to be -- this is going to be a reaction to the impact of COVID-19. So this is not the pure impact of 2021, but this is indicating the lack of COVID-19 impact that occurred in 2020. So a pure COVID-19 impact in 2021, expansion of the pandemic, worsening of the pandemic is indeed happening. So fiscal 2021, it's very difficult to single out the factor of COVID-19 and estimate any number. And so we have a plan not to single out the COVID-19 impact and tell you some kind of a number. But I guess people ask whether if we have any impact from COVID-19. For Overseas prior to the pre-COVID-19 situation, lowering of interest rate, the slowdown of the economy, there is a realized losses from investment, et cetera. Those will procrastinate going forward. And those impacts, if you look at the consolidated net income for the Overseas business, there will be some additional provisioning to be made at some overseas sites, et cetera, we'll incur in 2021. But as I have said, for fiscal 2021, we will not be showing you a single figure as COVID-19 impact of full fiscal 2021. That concludes my answer.

Let me just confirm something. So on the first point as for the timing, so first quarter and third quarter will not necessarily be the timing. But then you might announce some buyback in Investor Day, for example. Is that possible? And on Page 6, for fiscal 2020, the impact was JPY 63 billion. If you look at Page 5, this -- it's going to improve by JPY 31 billion. And so if you take JPY 63 billion and then deduct JPY 31 billion, the impact is going to be about half. Is that the correct way to understand it? And then event cancellation in the domestic market and also with the trade credit insurance, do you have any major policies that might give you a negative impact in 2021?

This is Gojo again from corporate planning. On the first point, yes, as you said, timing, we are not tied to the first quarter, third quarter financial results announcement meeting. I don't know if the timing is going to be Investor Day or not, but we will take the necessary steps, and we can execute on the capital adjustment in a flexible manner in terms of timing.

As for the COVID-19 impact, the way you look at the waterfall, this is very detailed. But if you look at asterisk 3, it says the difference from consolidated net income is due to deduction in the provision of various reserves in connection with COVID-19. And so on Page 6, for 2020, we have impact from COVID-19 by JPY 63 billion. And then there is a rebound from that. And then on consolidated net income, there is a JPY 40 billion included from the reversal effect of provisions of underwriting results for the first year. Because we had lowering of the loss ratio, there was additional reserves to be made. But that is going to be reversed in 2021. And so that -- or those are all included in the 2021 projections. Other than those, as COVID-19, we are not factoring in any other factors. And so in fiscal 2021, we are not estimating any claims to be paid specifically related to COVID-19 for fiscal 2020 at least as part of this waterfall explanation. So low interest rate, additional reserves being required, in a similar manner to what happened in 2020, that might continue in 2021, but those are included in the Others section. That concludes my answer.

Next, from JPMorgan Securities, Otsuka-san, please?

This is Otsuka speaking from JPMorgan Securities. I wanted to ask 1 question and get an answer. My first question is a confirmation. On the 23rd of March, a release was made from your company, BCC. With regards to BCC, this is a question on greenfield. If there are any updates, I would like to receive your explanation. That's my first point. And the impact is limited according to your press release dated 23rd of March, and therefore, I understand that there will be no impact in fiscal '21, but is my understanding correct? That's my first question.

Thank you very much. Your first question is related to greenfield. Slide 16, in terms of fiscal 2020, Asia-Oceania year-over-year, minus JPY 27.2 billion year-over-year. A majority of this is from trade credit insurance in Australia. This is IBNR that is recognized against the overall understanding. And the greenfield-related losses on the -- as we've written in the press release dated 23rd of March, there is no impact on our earnings. That I can say. And as for forecast for 2021, likewise in 2020, incurred losses to greenfield will not be -- there will be no exposure in fiscal 2021. I hope that answers your question.

Yes, indeed. And my second question is also a very simple confirmation. The guidance from the company, the medium-term target of profit, I guess, JPY 500 billion in adjusted net income and 12% in adjusted ROE. Next week, when a briefing will be held, I think you will be covering the topic of how to interpret or how to look at the midterm target, I assume.

This is Gojo speaking, and thank you very much, Otsuka-san for your question. The medium-term target, adjusted net income above JPY 500 billion and adjusted ROE around 12%, this is indeed a topic that will be covered next week. My answer is, therefore, yes. In the new midterm plan that is currently compiled. So actually, CEO Komiya talked about the adjusted net income of JPY 500 billion and adjusted ROE of 12%. By the end of this midterm plan, we want to be able to have a better visibility in achieving that. That was explained by our CEO earlier. And next week, I think our management will share with you how confident they are in having better visibility in achieving those targets. And that will be also combined with various capital policies and so forth. And therefore, those are topics that will be covered by our top management next week.

I'll be looking forward to the briefing next week.

Next from Jefferies, we have Ban-san. Please ask your question Mr. Ban.

Shareholder return, capital adjustment, I have some questions. So based on what you said today, so regarding the share buyback, shareholder return, how would you be handling communication? So for example, any mix of small-sized bolt-on type of investments or M&A, is it within this budget or outside of the budget? So when you announce M&A, would you be saying specifically that this is going to be paid as a part of the JPY 100 billion budget? Or going to be paid outside of the JPY 100 billion budget? Would you be saying that? And we have talked about timing and allocation. So as of the midterm, if you need to do capital adjustment and if you consume the entire budget, you might have to still pay for M&A in the second half, so maybe you return a half of that. And then without any business investment opportunities in the second half, would you be spending the remainder of the budget to shareholders? So what is the definition of mid- to small-sized M&A? And also, how would you be allocating the timing for the consumption of this budget throughout the year?

This is Gojo from corporate planning. Ban-san, thank you for your question. About the capital adjustment, we have received the 2 questions from you. On the first question, so when we do the bolt-on type of M&A or small- and medium-sized M&A, is it going to be within the JPY 100 billion or outside JPY 100 billion? Will we be announcing that when we announce the M&A? Well, at this point in time, we didn't really have such a specific plan on how to make announcement. Our idea is that, looking at the past cases, typically, bolt-on type of M&A is about 100 billion -- or USD 100 million or so. And it happens once in every few years. And our maximum is about $200 million to $300 million. And so that will be the typical size of what we call a bolt-on type of M&A. And on the second point about as of the midterm, if we complete spending this JPY 100 billion and in case we want to do bolt-on in the second half, we will not have any budget left to spend in the second half then what do we do, that was your question. On the point, as we have mentioned briefly, this budget of JPY 100 billion is for capital adjustment. And timing of the bolt-on type of M&A, we never really know when it's going to occur. It may come in the second half. And so for example, if we finish spending JPY 100 billion in the first half -- so if we completed spending JPY 100 billion, but beyond that, in the second half, if there is a bolt-on type of M&A we want to do, we will still be productive in executing such M&A. So on combined basis, by the end of the year, we may exceed JPY 100 billion. And that's how we want to be managing it. And so it's not that we intentionally leave some part of this JPY 100 billion behind as of the midterm just so that we have more money to spend in the second half. We will not be doing that. Thank you very much.

Next, Sasaki-san from Bank of America.

I am Sasaki. My first question is with regards to your comment on greenfield. At this point in time, there will be no exposure, no impact on this year's guidance. That was already mentioned. But according to media reporting, it seems like it's becoming a very unique situation. Do you see that there will be some risks associated to greenfield? That's my first question. And my next question is bolt-on type M&A. Share buyback from -- is it possible to implement the share buybacks? That is my second question.

Thank you. This is Ishiguro speaking. I would like to take your first question on greenfield. On greenfield, I understand that there's a lot of media coverage. We determined, like greenfield, making comments, and that is being covered by the media. And as for our trading business with greenfield, we are looking at the validity of the cover. This surfaced in May of last year, and therefore, we are using outside experts in order to check the validity of the coverage. And based on the outcome findings, we will be implementing measures appropriately. And as a result, we've made a decision that it will not have any impact on our earnings in fiscal 2021. However, as you pointed out, this situation is subject to change, and therefore, we will continuously closely monitor any development. That's my answer to the first question. And with regard to your second question, the relationship between insider trading and bolt-on M&A, let me ask Gojo-san to take that question.

Tokio Marine Holdings Corporate Planning Department, I am Gojo. Please hold on for a moment, please. This is a legal matter, and I would like to be accurate in taking this question. I do not want to easily take that question lightly. And if it's a deal that is subject to insider trading, of course, we will take measures in compliance with regulations. And whether bolt-on type M&As will fall under that category, I don't have a thorough understanding to be very accurate, and so please let me get back to you.

Understood. I would appreciate if we could talk again on this topic.

From Mitsubishi UFJ Morgan Stanley, Tsujino-san, she has a second round to ask more questions.

I will make it brief. So natural catastrophe, for Japan, it was JPY 70 billion. It was JPY [ 65 ] billion, but you exceeded that. And now you raised it to JPY 70 billion. And that was pushing down your profit forecast. Other than that, the hedging cost, so natural catastrophe-related hedging cost, I'm sure, is increasing. So compared to last year, how much additional reinsurance hedging costs are you paying? And also what is your stance for the natural catastrophe in general? Compared to the past, are you on the policy to regain more risk, but are we seeing any changes to your stance towards more risk retention on your side? Has that been changed?

And so hedging cost and also our stance towards natural catastrophe risk retention. So about this hedging cost, Okada-san will be answering your question.

So on your question about the hedging cost for 2020 -- so for 2019, 2020, we had a lot of natural catastrophes. And as of April 2020, when we had the renewal, we saw increase in reinsurance cost. The actual cost went up. And for 2021, in a similar manner -- this is not just for natural catastrophes but also part of this COVID-19, so hedging cost in general is on the increasing trend for fiscal '21. For the specific figure, I would like to hold that back. But for the renewal towards fiscal 2021, when we renew the policies for fiscal 2020, we did have some large natural catastrophes, so there was a major increase for fiscal 2020. Compared to that, there is a lenient increase for the hedging cost for fiscal 2021, and I apologize if I cannot say the actual figures in yen terms. That concludes my answer regarding reinsurance.

The second question about the natural risk -- natural catastrophe risk retention policy, I'd like to answer the question. This is Ishiguro. As we have been saying, the insurance arrangement, whatever we arrange we lose and they win. And so relative to the term of the insurance, and so we can only even out the term. And so the main way to deal with this is to diversify the portfolio in a global manner. So tech cover, yes, we do buy. But then for the earnings cover, we make the decisions with the economic rationale. And so that stance or that policy has not changed.

We're approaching the end of the allocated time. Therefore, I would like to make the next question the last question. Sato-san from Mizuho Securities.

Let me ask a very simple question. JPY 215 dividend, dividend payout ratio, the standards has changed. And therefore, I would like to ask that as for its standards. And as for ESR, you were restrict -- excluding restricted capital, but I would like to confirm why you've raised the top of the range?

Thank you for your questions. I'll ask Gojo-san to answer your questions.

The first question, forecast dividend per share. With regard to that question, based on the new criteria, the payout ratio, the average payout ratio is 43% under the new standard. And payout against the financial accounting basis is 47% according to our calculation. And another point with regards to the ceiling of ESR from the time compared to when we had 130% when we excluded restricted capital, but that has been raised by 10% to 140% this time around. I think your question pertains to that. In the previous midterm plan, without restricted capital, when we had that policy, the ceiling has been dealt with in a different way. This time, when we exceed the ceiling of 140%, we will -- we are committed to take action. Before, when we had the ceiling at 130%, we didn't commit that we will make some kind of an action when ESR exceeds that 130%. So the meaning of the ceiling is a bit different. And that is why -- that is reflected in the fact that we've raised the ESR ceiling from 130% to 140%.

Thank you very much for attending our meeting today. We would like to conclude today's session. If there's anything that is unclear to you, please feel free to contact us. Thank you very much. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]