Tokyo Electron Limited (8035) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Now it's time for us to start Tokyo Electron financial estimate and announcement for fiscal year ending March 2021. Thank you very much for joining us despite your very busy schedule today. I am Yatsuda of IR department acting as the moderator for today's session. We do appreciate your cooperation. Now let me introduce the participants for today's meeting. Mr. Tetsuo Tsuneishi, Representative Director, Chairman of the Board.

I'm Tsuneishi. I'm very happy to make announcement of our financial estimates today. I believe you have been waiting for this for a long time.

Next, Mr. Toshiki Kawai, Representative Director, President and CEO.

I am Kawai. Thank you very much for joining us.

Next, Mr. Yoshikazu Nunokawa, Corporate Director, Executive Vice President and General Manager, Finance Division.

I am Nunokawa. Thank you.

Before starting the presentation, let me explain the flow of today's meeting. First of all, Mr. Kawai, our CEO, will give a 10-minute presentation. After that up to until 5:30, we'll take questions from the floor. The presentation will be given only in Japanese, but for questions, we'll take both English and Japanese questions and both questions and answers will be translated. [Operator Instructions] And this is a meeting for the institutional investors and analysts. I would really appreciate your understanding that we just receive questions from institutional investors and analysts as before. For this meeting, the Japanese and English audio will be uploaded to our website later. So now Mr. Kawai, our CEO, will make a presentation on our business environment and financial estimates.

Once again, I am Kawai. Thank you very much for joining us in our web meeting despite your very busy schedule. We are currently experiencing the unprecedented event in the world. We'd like to extend our sincere sympathies to everyone in the world who has been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. We also want to express our sincere thanks to all the people, including medical professionals on the front lines of the response for their tremendous efforts taking this opportunity. For the post-COVID-19 world, it's necessary to build strong and resilient society. ICT need to be promoted and implemented in the society. Essential businesses, including communication and medical services, require semiconductors and FPDs. They are essential in our world. By promoting our core businesses, WFE and FPD production equipment, we are prepared to make some contribution to the development of society and in the industry. And our corporate policy is to contribute to the development of dream-inspiring society through our leading-edge technologies and reliable service and support. Now I'd like to talk about business environment and financial estimates. Let me start with business environment. The WFE capital investment in calendar year 2020 is expected to increase by around 10% on a year-on-year basis. Though we need to carefully watch the trend of macroeconomy, there are strong inquiries at present. Even including the consideration to the impacts of the COVID-19, it is possible to achieve 10% increase, and we expect the WFE market will grow to the biggest size in its history. Capital investment in FPD production equipment for TFT Array Process. In calendar 2020, capital investment is expected to grow by about 15% on a year-on-year basis. Capital investment in large size panels for TVs is expected to continue. Investment in OLED for mobile application is likely to recover. Next slide shows the WFE market and business opportunities by application. Logic and foundry investment is expected to be as high as that in the previous year. The demand for both leading-edge devices and mature previous devices nodes are expected to be strong. DRAM. The investment for DRAM is expected to increase by 15% to 20% on a year-on-year basis. Non-volatile memory. The investment for non-volatile memory is expected to rise by about 50% on a year-on-year basis. The customer's investment for capacity and enhancement will be accelerated. This shows the financial estimates for this year, fiscal year. The full year net sales are expected to be JPY 1.280 trillion, 13.5% increase on a year-on-year basis, hitting the record high as the net sales. In both SPE and FPD business, the year-on-year growth ratio of our net sales is expected to outperform the market growth. The operating income will be JPY 275 billion, 15.9% increase on the year-on-year basis. Next, this slide shows the SPE new equipment sales forecast by application. Due to the recovery of memory investment, the full year net sales is expected to increase by 15% on a year-on-year basis. As the proportion of the sales for memory customers increases, the sales composition will be in general 50% for logic/foundry, 25% for DRAM and 25% for non-volatile memory, so 50% and 50% between memory and logic proportion. This slide shows fiscal year 2021 R&D expenses and CapEx plan. In order to capitalize on our future growth potential as much as possible, the R&D investment and CapEx will be record high, JPY 135 billion and JPY 56 billion, respectively. These figures remain unchanged from those that we reported in April this year. To achieve our midterm management plan, we will continue investing actively for future growth. Finally, this shows the dividend forecast for this fiscal year. Based on the financial estimates that I explained earlier, we expect to pay full year dividend per share of JPY 660, in line with 50% of dividend payout ratio. Thank you very much for your kind attention. This concludes my presentation.

We'd like to take questions until 5:30. [Operator Instructions] We really appreciate if you ask very concise questions because your questions will be translated into both English and Japanese. When we receive English question, questions in English, the translator will translate them into Japanese, and the -- our people will answer to your question in Japanese. The Japanese answer will be translated back into English. When I say [Foreign Language] or please, please start your question. So first question is from Mr. Wadaki of Nomura Securities, please.

Thank you very much for a very powerful, very productive presentation. At present, I'm afraid the Huawei risks are more dangerous than COVID-19 risk. So I want to ask some questions about this particular issue because some -- IC vendors are not able to take overseas orders from Huawei. So what happens to those players? And some player or IC vendors start trying to set up the factories in United States by taking up the consolation of the American government. So what happens to the -- so some of the Chinese IC vendors also take orders from Huawei. So from the viewpoint of the WFE or SPE, what sort of kinds of things will be happening and what sort of timing do you envisage?

Mr. Kawai, if you can answer to this question, please.

Thank you very much for your question. This is the very first question I expected in today's meeting. And I'm afraid my answer is not a kind of great question -- great answer to some extent because we are not in the position to answer specific issues about the political issues between the United States and China. We are not in such position. And also, it's so difficult for us to give some answers about specific customers or specific company. But when it comes to the COVID-19, geopolitical issues, some frictions in the world, as you know, it's been about 1.5 months ever since the financial announcement back in April this year. So I'd like to answer to your question by incorporating all the factors which might affect our businesses. Earlier this year, as you know, one American competitor said the WFE market is expected to grow by about 10% -- more than 10%, very close to the 20%. And I said to that forecast given by the American company that I don't find -- I don't feel anything uncomfortable about such kind of forecast. But after that, we scrutinized the situation in the market, and today we said WFE market is expected to grow by about 10% this year. That's our conclusion. As of today, the difference between 10% and my previous comment earlier this year is because of the various factors that we are now facing right now. So in addition to IoT, AI and 5G, now we are being affected by the corona -- the COVID-19 crisis, and we are forced to seek the new normal right now. But amid those circumstances, it is really important for us to implement ICT, information communication technology, more aggressively. And semiconductor will become more and more important in such kind of circumstances, and semiconductor's performance is required to increase furthermore. I'm sure that our customers will continue their investment in any case. And as far as our company is concerned, we must be prepared to maintain our very strong innovation capability. I'm sorry, Mr. Wadaki. I'm not able to give you a direct answer to your question, but I just share my idea of the current situation right now. Thank you very much.

I have one follow-up question. Were there any cancellations or some large size pushout? If any, could you share that with us, please?

Nothing so special or significant at all.

Thank you very much for your question. So next question is from Mr. Yoshida of CLSA Securities, Japan.

The other day, SEMI announced 2020 forecast. And according to SEMI's forecast, WFE market is expected decline -- expected to decline by 4%. And DRAM and logic negative growth is also expected. But earlier, you said you're expecting 10% growth in the WFE market. Could you let us know the reason why there is a difference in perspective between SEMI and your company? Do you see any increase in demand quite recently?

So in respect of -- what we're thinking right now, as you pointed out, there is some difference between our estimate and SEMI's forecast, which is true. And you saw some of those, [ you ] had a question about that particular issue. Maybe you are interested in the probability or likelihood of our estimates which we announced today. It is true that it's different from SEMI's forecast, so let me just make some comments on that issue. So as for the first half of this year, fiscal year, we -- 100% equipment orders are the basis of this forecast. And for the second half of this year, our customers' investment activities was -- as I said earlier, maybe because of the effects of the COVID-19 and because of the further development of ICT, I think the customers are prepared to continue their investment throughout this year. So there have been no changes -- there will be no changes in terms of the customers' investment plan so far. So under those circumstances, I'm talking with top management of many of our customers -- top management of our many customers for their further collaboration or cooperation in the future. And we've got commitment from our customer about their investments for the future. Based on that sort of, I would say, information, we announced today's forecast for the WFE market. And I don't know why there is such a difference between ours and SEMI's forecast but this is how we arrived at a 10% increase of WFE market.

I have one follow-up question. You said earlier your performance will outperform the market growth. And is that because of the customer mix, your customer mix help you to increase your share? Or are there some other reasons for that?

When it comes to our strategy, business strategy, we try to -- we are trying to focus on 3 areas. We are the -- number one, where the -- our technology can provide some value added; number two, where the technology innovation can be expected; number three, the area where market is expected to grow furthermore. And that's the reason why we decided to focus on etching, thin film, deposition and cleaning areas, in addition to our very strong area of coder developer. And so therefore we are trying to introduce our products and service to the area of the market which are expected to grow furthermore. Because of this strategy, it is quite natural that our growth will outperform the market growth. And also for the Field Solutions business, we are very happy to say our Field Solutions business is going very well and achieving more than JPY 300 billion. And although last year, the market was declined, our Field Solutions sales increased, and same thing will happen this year as well. So these are the factors that we can achieve the better performance than the market growth as well.

Thank you very much for your question. Now we have JPMorgan, Mr. Moriyama of JPMorgan Securities.

I have a question about your sales increase ratio and income increase ratio in your guidance. When we look at the numbers, the top line is expected to grow by 13.5%, while the operating profit is supposed to increase to 15.9%, so almost a comparable figures between the top line and operating profit. When you take account of your marginal profit ratio, however, you can achieve a little bit higher operating profit. But could you let us know the assumptions to arrive at this kind of figures? When you compare first half and second half of this fiscal year, in the first half of this year, the year-on-year sales increase is 21.9%, while the second half of this year, there is some slowdown and year-on-year sales increases, about 6.7%. Once again, could you let us know the assumptions that you used to arrive at those figures?

So I -- your question, the point of your question is maybe we could increase the operating profit margin a little bit more, but actually we are planning to invest JPY 135 billion for our R&D. That is a record-high size of R&D development -- R&D investment. As I said by answering the question given by Mr. Wadaki, although the market itself will grow by 10%, but I think there is a huge potential in the market itself. So it's important for us to follow or support the ICT development furthermore by introducing high-performance devices. That's the reason why we must not stop or we must not suspend the R&D investment under any circumstances. Although the top line is affected by COVID-19 and other factors, we must continue the record-high R&D investment. That's the reason why this fiscal year profits are affected. This R&D investment is essential to achieve our midterm management goals. So before answering to your second question, let me add some more comments on your first question. So this is [ what we envision ] for the mid-term business plan announcement meeting and as we -- there is no changes in our mid-term business or management plan. And the financial models are -- when I look at our financial models or mid-term management plan, we are planning to invest JPY 400 billion for R&D within 3 years in the area, focus areas. So this is our second year of this plan, and we are determined to implement this plan, especially for our future. This is the investment period [ essential ] for us to capitalize on our growth potential as a company. For your second question, maybe you wanted to say the -- our numbers for the second half is too low. We can -- it could increase furthermore. But actually because of COVID-19, there are quite a few restrictions in logistics or traveling. So we are being affected by those factors. Having said that, the WFE market is still expected to grow by 10%. Meanwhile, there are some delays in our sales in this fiscal year, and that portion will be shifted to next fiscal year.

Thank you very much for your question. Next, Mr. Sugiura of Daiwa Securities.

I am Sugiura of Daiwa Securities. Although you said something about this issue, but I'd like to once again ask a very simple question about the memory itself. Earlier this year, multiple memory manufacturers announced that they are going to decrease their CapEx, capital investment for this year, because after that, because of COVID-19, the bit growth, there is increasing uncertainty in the bit growth in the market. Accordingly, the memory vendors, memory manufacturers are still trying to reduce their investments. So -- but on the other hand, your expectation of memory business is rather positive. So why there is some difference between the memory vendors' guidance and your prospects in the future?

So in the data centers, there is increasing data traffic in the data centers. Therefore, we must kind of, say, meet or fulfill, to take care of the demands properly. And there is no changes in the customer capital investment plan, also the -- and customer need to prepare for the future demand increase at the earliest stage. As far as inquiries, our inquiries we receive at present, there are no major impacts on manufacturing inquiries because of the strong demand of the data center and PCs. In addition, we have the future potential for the 5G mobiles. Our memory customers are currently investing to prepare for the future 5G mobile. Therefore, despite of the circumstances, the markets, there have been no changes in customers' investment plan. And there is a small gap between customer distribution and the customers' announcement about their plan. And we don't know why there is such gap, but based on the inquiries we receive right now, we feel very comfortable about those figures we presented today.

There are some concerns among some investors. The PC manufacturers and data center operators have been building up their memory inventory. As a result, the inventory level is getting very, very high. In the second half of this year, accordingly, the memory sales will be slowing down. As a result, memory price is expected to decline. Accordingly, the incentives or motivation for capital investment is about to decline, but when you discuss with memory manufacturers, in their discussion, do you detect some concerns as such?

No, there is no such concerns at all.

Thank you very much. So next question is from Mr. Yasui of UBS Securities.

I have a question on the America-China relations. What will happen to the investment, capital investment in China in the future? That is a major point of my question. Because of the U.S.-China trade frictions, currently the China customers are investing more than expected of plan. For example, SMIC is getting much support from the Chinese government. So how would you see the trend or circumstances of Chinese market? Are there any difference from your view from the early this year and now?

So the China market has been very big and still very big, and I believe China market will continue growing in the future as well. I already talked about various impact due to COVID-19 impact earlier. And I don't -- and when you ask about the trend of the Chinese -- of the capital investment in Chinese market for this fiscal year, and I think there is no major impacting factors which directly impact the plan of investment for this year. But it is necessary for us to carefully and closely watch the situation from next year and on.

And my question, next follow-up question is, is there any difference between the capital investment for logic and memory? Could you share your idea with us, please?

When it comes to the size of the investment, I think memory's investment is much, much bigger than the one for logic. I hope this answers to your question.

The next question is from Mr. [ Shimon Ishinosuno ].

I have one question regarding COVID-19. Because of the COVID-19, the data traffic has been increasing by 30% to 40%. And I think this data traffic increasing trend will remain unchanged in the future. And I want to understand the impact of this increase on the overall picture. I think the data traffic growing trend has been changing. What sort of impact does this increase of data traffic have on the semiconductor investment?

I quite understand -- quite agree with you on that viewpoint. Last year, if my memory serves, semiconductor device market grew to $412 billion. In year 2030, the $1 trillion should be the level of the semiconductor market size. But what we have in [ Tokyo ] was so far transistor -- it's been 70 years, 7-0, 70 years ever since transistor was invented. And by taking 70 years, the transistor or IC market grew to $410 billion size. But when we look at next decade, next 10 years, the size of the market will be doubled or more than doubled. So we will see another same size of market in the future in addition to the current one. Based on this background, in the future, more and more and more increasingly, the technology innovation is required. I think technology innovation is the kind of driver, a very essential driver, to grow the market. And higher value-added will be required, including higher storage, higher reliability, higher speed and lower power consumption. Those need to be fulfilled properly. And because of the COVID-19, currently, people's transfer or traffic has been restricted to some extent. However, data traffic is and will be accelerated furthermore. So it's necessary for us to enhance the ICT technology further more in the future. For example, for the autonomous driving machine-to-machine applications, much higher speed will be necessary, and that trend will be accelerated. Therefore, I think there is no [ can I say ] factors to go against the current trend. I think current trend will be accelerated furthermore. And market will -- is expected to be furthermore driven by the increase of the demand and needs of the technology innovation.

Thank you very much. Now it's time for us to close today's meeting of financial estimate announcement.

We are sorry about -- very sorry about the poor connection during this meeting. Thank you very much for joining us today despite your very tight schedule. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]