Tomra Systems ASA ($TOM)

Earnings Call Transcript · April 24, 2026

OB NO Industrials Machinery Earnings Calls 47 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#1

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to TOMRA's First Quarter Results Presentation for 2026. My name is Daniel Sundahl. I'm Head of Investor Relations in TOMRA. We will, as usual, start today's presentation with CEO, Tove Andersen, giving you the highlights of the quarter, followed by a deep dive into the numbers from the CFO, Eva Sagemo. At the end of the presentation, we will take questions from participants in the Teams webinar. A link to the webinar can be found in this morning's stock exchange release. But without further ado, I give the word to Tove Andersen.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#2

Good morning, and welcome from me as well to our Q1 presentation 2026. We present today a quarter characterized by strong growth in Food and Collection, but with profitability impacted by short-term product mix effects in all segments and lower volumes in Recycling. However, the underlying developments in the quarter in all segments gives us confidence going forward that we are on the right track. Collection delivered record revenues due to deliveries in Poland and Portugal and growth in existing markets, however, with lower margins due to the higher share of RVM sales and the product margins in Poland. In Recycling, we continue to see low commercial activity, but progressing according to plan on the cost reduction program. In Food, the high commercial activity is continuing, however, with short-term lower margins due to a larger-than-normal share of third-party peripheral equipment delivered. Let me then take you through the business updates for the divisions and horizon. Collection had record quarterly revenues of EUR 208 million, up 15% currency adjusted. Revenue in existing markets was EUR 159 million in the quarter, which represents 5% growth, in line with our ambition. However, when comparing the revenue from existing markets in Q4 last year, it's important to remember the seasonal variations in our throughput volumes. New markets contributed with EUR 49 million of revenues in the quarter. In Poland, which was the biggest contributor, installation speed has picked up and deliveries will continue in Q2. By end of Q1, we had more than 4,000 machines installed. As communicated earlier, the initial market in Poland is estimated to be 10,000 to 12,000 machines with a tail, which is difficult to estimate, but can be 5,000 machines or more coming over the next years as collection rate increases. Portugal launched its deposit system on April 10. It is always exciting when a new country goes live. The initial market is estimated to be 2,500 machines, and we estimate that 2/3 of that market is done. By end of Q1, we had more than 1,000 machines installed in Portugal. We also had Singapore going live in April, April 1, where we have been awarded 1 of the 3 zones, representing roughly 350 RVMs. It is a small market, but an important reference for rest of Asia, and we are committed to make it a success. We have a great team in Singapore, and you can see some of them in the picture below together with the Senior Minister of State from the Ministry of Sustainability & Environment and the Ministry of Education. When talking about new DRS markets, let's look at the pipeline, which we have listed on the bottom right. I will only comment on U.K., which is the next big market to go live. The process towards the launch in October next year is progressing as planned. We estimate initial rollout to be 25,000 locations. Also in U.K., there might be a tail of sales in the smaller independent stores, but difficult to estimate how large that market will be as they don't have an obligation to take back beverage containers. There is significant commercial activity ongoing in the U.K. All of the large retailers are running or are about to run procurement processes for RVMs. And we expect most contracts to be signed this year, while the rollout will mainly take place as of next year. Based upon the experience from the last DRS rollouts, where we have achieved a share of the market in line with our ambitions, we feel we are well positioned to win our share of the U.K. market. Then to the last bullet on the slide, innovation. Innovation is key for us to ensure growth and to maintain our margins. In the quarter, we launched T100, the new version of our flagship model T9. T9 is by far our most sold machine, it's actually the world's most common RVM. So this is a big milestone. I'm confident that the T100 will be as successful in the future as the T9 has been for us in the past. Then over to Recycling. In Recycling, we had a significant drop in revenues in the quarter due to the weak market sentiment, which caused a decline in orders last year, and due to the lead times, this impacts the revenues in this quarter. As you will see from the bottom left graph, the order intake is also down compared to Q1 2025, but in line with second and third quarter last year. The market sentiment is stable, and it is as we have described in the previous quarters. We have a weak market in North America waste recovery and within plastic recycling due to tariffs, low plastic prices and general macroeconomic uncertainty. The metal market has remained stable. As you will see from the PET graph below, the PET prices had a sharp increase in the last weeks due to the increased oil prices and blockage of Hormuz. The increase in virgin PET prices has also lifted the prices of recycled PET, but not to the same extent. This is positive for our customers, but the impact on investment sentiment will depend on whether higher prices are perceived as sustainable. They need predictability of higher prices over time before the investment sentiment will improve. Key for us, given the challenging market, is to take action on the things we can control. The EUR 16 million cost reduction program is progressing according to plan, and there will be a gradual effect on our costs during this year and the full year effect will come next year. In Food, we had revenue growth in all main markets, resulting in a revenue of EUR 79 million, up 17% currency adjusted. We saw some decline in revenue from the potato segment, which has been our largest category. This was expected, and we have talked about this in previous quarters as well, as we are coming out of a strong investment cycle on potatoes. What is nice to see is that we are able to compensate this decline with growth in other segments, in other categories. Citrus has been particularly strong in the quarter and is now competing with potatoes of being our largest category. This confirms the robustness in our business model and the value of having a diversified portfolio in Food. Order intake in the quarter was down on a strong comparison last year. There will always be quarterly variations in order intake. And if you look at the trailing 12 months, the order intake is up 7%. The market sentiment overall is good and the underlying activity is strong. Innovation is also key in Food. And it's nice to see the 4C, which we launched some months back, has been well received in the market for nuts. This was 1 of the key segments that 4C was developed for. The positive response has confirmed our position as a challenger, well equipped to increase our share of that segment. This is part of our strategy in Food, to outgrow the market by gaining share in selected segments. Then to Horizon. Our portfolio of new businesses consisting today of c-trace, reuse and feedstock. After a period of investing into this portfolio, it's nice to see that the revenues are starting to build up. The Horizon portfolio delivered revenues of EUR 10 million in the quarter. And looking at the graph, the decline from Q4 is due to the seasonality in c-trace, which typically has a significant portion of the revenue in the last quarter in the year. The business momentum in the market c-trace operates in, that is the Smart Waste Management segment is strong, and we expect the company to continue their profitable growth journey this year. Reuse. It is the least mature in our portfolio. For the City Solution, the rollout in Lisbon is continuing, while the event solution is still in piloting phase, but with a good pipeline of opportunities. In feedstock, the focus is to ramp up the volumes at our Områ plant. We increased 2 shifts earlier this year and target to be at 2/3 capacity utilization by the end of the year. So overall, continued good progress in all 3 businesses. That concludes the business update, and I will hand over to our CFO, Eva Sagemo.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#3

Thank you for that, Tove. And let's dig into the figures, starting with Collection. Revenues came in at EUR 208 million, up 12% compared to Q1 last year and up 15% currency adjusted. The performance has been strong in the new markets with revenues of EUR 49 million, with strong contribution from Poland and Portugal. Our existing markets continue with solid performance with underlying growth of 5%, 2% up, currency adjusted. And looking at the overview per region, North America is seasonally lower in the first quarter on the throughput sales. But also in the quarter, we have added in Clynk compared to Q1 last year. Our gross margins in Collection ended at 39.5%. It's lower than our ambition of being more than 40%. However, explained by the business mix with higher share of RVM sales of the total sales and then as well as the lower product margin in Poland also impacting the gross margin for Collection. OpEx ended up compared to Q1 last year, now at EUR 50 million in the quarter, explained by the high activity, especially in Poland, but also ramping up in U.K. We have added in Clynk, and then we have also inflation in the period. This results then in an EBITA in Collection of EUR 33 million, and it's up from EUR 30 million compared to the same period last year. And then looking into the short-term outlook in 2026 and starting then with the revenues. And for existing markets, we expect mid-single-digit growth here in line with our ambition for the existing markets. For new markets, the momentum in Poland continues to be strong in next quarter, but the pace in Portugal and Romania is then expected to slow down, but continue to contribute throughout the year. And for U.K., there is currently high commercial activity, as Tove mentioned, and the deliveries to the U.K. retailers will start then in 2027. And for our profitability, our target is still to deliver a gross margin above 40% for the full year in 2026. Over to Recycling. Recycling came in at EUR 37 million, a decline of 19% compared to Q1 last year, following then a decline in orders in 2025. The combination of low revenue volumes, metal projects and also our fixed cost base results then in a weak gross margin of 40.5% in the quarter. OpEx ended down compared to Q1 last year, now at EUR 20 million. And we have also added in restructuring costs of EUR 13 million as a special item in the quarter. This results then in a negative EBITA in the Recycling of EUR 5 million, then excluding those special items. And looking at the order intake in the quarter, it ended at EUR 41 million, low, impacted then by the challenging market sentiment. The level is, however, in line with what we had in 2025, especially for Q2 and also Q3, but down compared to a strong Q1 last year. Order backlog ended at EUR 98 million. And then also here, looking into 2026, the short-term outlook, we estimate a 50% conversion ratio of the Q1 order backlog as revenue in Q2. And based on the current market sentiment, we do not expect the revenue growth this year. The majority of the order backlog that we have currently is estimated to be delivered in 2026. And also, given the current average lead time we have in production, we expect improved revenue visibility when we end Q2. And then gross margins will continue to be impacted by the low volumes, but we expect, already in Q2, a more favorable product mix in Recycling. And as Tove mentioned, the restructuring program is progressing according to plan, where we expect the EUR 16 million gross savings to materialize gradually throughout the following quarters and then with full effect in 2027. Then moving over to Food. Food revenues came in at EUR 79 million, which is up 13% compared to Q1 last year and up 17% currency adjusted. Performance was up in all main markets and also EUR 4 million better than estimated conversion ratio, mainly due to timing of deliveries. Gross margins for the quarter came in at 40.8%, which is then below last year's strong performance. And this temporary decrease was mainly due to the product mix with a higher proportion of third-party equipment sales linked to then large pack house projects that we had coming in as orders last year. OpEx ended up compared to Q1 last year, so slightly up, ending now at EUR 28 million, and that is mainly due to inflation. And this results then in an EBITA of EUR 4 million, up from EUR 3 million in the same quarter last year. And also here, looking at the order intake in the quarter, it ended at EUR 80 million, a decrease from same period last year, however, then on strong comparables. The underlying market activity is strong and the trailing 12-month order intake is up 7%. And the order backlog ended strong at EUR 137 million. And then looking into 2026 outlook, we estimate a 70% conversion ratio of the Q1 order backlog as revenues in Q2. And for the full year, revenues is estimated to grow mid- to high single digit. And as we have seen in Q1, the product mix effect is expected to continue also in Q2, but then to return to mid-40s in the second half of the year. And then we have a look at Horizon. Revenues came in at EUR 10 million, more than doubling from Q1 last year. We have a strong momentum in c-trace, but also here, we see now the positive contribution from Områ being now in production. Gross margins in the quarter of 48.4%, it's lower compared to Q1 last year, explained then by depreciations of our Områ assets. OpEx flat compared to Q1 last year of EUR 6 million. And that results in a negative EBITA of EUR 2 million, however, then with a positive EBITA for Områ. And then looking into the short-term outlook also for Horizon. C-trace is expected to deliver double-digit revenue growth this year with an EBITA of more than 20%. And for feedstock, as Områ is scaling up its production, which is then estimated to reach 2/3 of its full capacity this year, we expect a positive EBITA contribution from the plant this year and then going into 2027 with a positive EBITA. And then if you look at the whole Horizon activities, OpEx is expected to be around EUR 30 million to EUR 35 million for the full year and then CapEx of around EUR 10 million for the full year. And then combining the results from all of our divisions, the group achieved total revenues of EUR 334 million in the quarter. It's a 9% increase compared to Q1 last year and 12% increase if you adjust for currency. The gross margin was 40.2% in the quarter. It's down compared to the same quarter last year, explained then by product project and business mix, where some of those are short term in nature. OpEx ending at EUR 108 million in the quarter. It's up compared to same period last year, but that is mainly explained by then higher activity levels in new markets, we have added in Clynk, but also had inflation in the period. And this results then in EBITA of EUR 26 million for the group, in line with what we had in Q1 last year, adjusting then for those special one-offs. Cash flow and capital. Cash flow from operations of EUR 60 million in the quarter. It's down from EUR 65 million in the same quarter last year on the lower results and a higher working capital. Looking at cash flow from investments in the quarter, it's EUR 25 million, trending in line with the estimated run rate for the full year, which we have communicated to be around EUR 100 million, where most of those investments will be then into our core business divisions. Our working capital of 18% end of the quarter, it's up compared to same quarter last year, reflecting then the high activities in new DRS markets, but it's down compared to end of 2025, and we also expect that to come further down as orders are being delivered and payments being collected and especially in Collection. Our ROCE ended at 15% end of the quarter. It's down compared to same quarter last year. Then reflecting inorganic investments, but also the strategic business building that we are doing and also the lower profitability in Recycling. And also here, looking ahead, we anticipate an improvement in returns as we then get the positive impact from the investments that we have done, and we are also able to lift the profitability in Recycling. Financing. Our average debt maturity end of the quarter is 4.2 years with a liquidity buffer of around EUR 100 million in undrawn facilities. And our equity ratio at the end of the quarter was 35%. It's down compared to same quarter last year, but stable from end of 2025. And we still have a good headroom in the equity. Our gearing at the end of the quarter was 2.37x, up from same quarter last year and also up from end of 2025, which then reflects recent debt finance acquisitions. And then looking ahead, equity ratio is expected to be impacted by the dividend payments, which is now planned for Q2 in May. However, we will still be covenant intact and then also expect improvement in the following quarters of 2026. And then for the gearing, it's expected to be gradually reduced with the earnings and cash flow from contributions also here in the following quarters. And then this slide brings the outlook together, both on the short-term outlook, but also on TOMRA's long-term drivers. And I will not go through this since I just covered it on the previous slides, but just want to emphasize the strong long-term drivers for TOMRA being then decarbonization, regulation, modernization and optimization, but also demographics and resource scarcity. And with that, I will hand it back to you, Daniel.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#4

Thank you, Eva, and thank you, Tove. We will now move over to the Q&A in Teams. And I see we have a few questions coming in already, and we will start with Morayo Adesina at Barclays.

Morayo Adesina

Analysts
#5

Just a couple from me. So I just wanted to understand a bit more about the lower product margins in Poland. Just wondering why the margins are lower in this market? Is it something specific to Poland? Yes, just wondering what the moving parts are behind that. And then just continuing on this product mix subject. So obviously, you've mentioned for Recycling expecting it to be a bit better in Q2 and continuing for Food. So just wondering what the outlook is for Collection, if you're expecting those product mix effects to continue? And then just a clarification question. So the machine estimates that you mentioned for some of the markets, are those for the total market or just for TOMRA's share? So that's just on Collection. And then on Recycling, I'm just wondering what underpins the confidence for the 50% conversion ratio in Q2, given that the near-term challenges have still continued. Would that be seasonal effects or something else?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#6

Yes, I can start. So if we start on the margins in Poland, to approach this question is that it's important to remember that all the different markets that we operate in, in Collection is different. In Poland, we have talked about that we have had quite some price pressure, but nevertheless, given that situation, we are confident that we are going to deliver more than 40% gross margins in Collection for the full year. And then if you think about Q2 and the Poland impact, we are also going to deliver quite some machines into Poland in Q2. So this will also impact the margins in Q2 for Collection. You had the question on the margins also in Recycling and in Food. And of course, in Recycling, when you operate with lower volumes, you will have an impact on the margins, and the product mix has also an impact on that. So with the visibility that we have in the order backlog, for example, we are going to deliver more waste orders into Q2, that would have a positive impact on the gross margins in Recycling. And of course, with the market sentiment and the lower intake and the lower volumes that we have been trending on, this impacts the gross margin. But as we go along and we take out the savings and go into 2027, we will see positive effects also here because part of the savings is impacting the gross margin. And then if I just take the visibility on the conversion ratio for Recycling of 50% into Q2, that is based on the orders that we have in the order backlog that we are working on delivering to our customers. So we have quite some visibility into that. But as we always say, some variations can happen. And we have seen that, for example, as a positive thing now in Food in the quarter where we have delivered a bit higher than the conversion ratio. And that is really about the timing of the deliveries and nothing else than that. For Food on the product margins, we see a decline now in Q1. Q1 is always a bit lower because of seasonality and what kind of orders you are delivering into the market. But we see a negative impact this quarter because of the third-party equipment. And for those following TOMRA, they would remember that last year, we had quite some larger orders coming in early in the year, which were to those large pack houses that we have talked about. And there also, we are taking on the third-party equipment into our P&L, and that has an impact of the margin. Nevertheless, we're not going to say no to those orders because it's so important to deliver that to the customer according to what they need. And I think that was covering my part, right?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#7

Yes. And you had a question on market estimates linked to then the indications that we were giving on Poland and Portugal. So we estimate the initial phase in Poland for the total market, not TOMRA share, to be 10,000 to 12,000 machines. This is then typically the larger retail chains that will be early investing. Then after that, there are tens of thousands of smaller stores in Poland. How many of those that they will decide to have RVMs is very difficult to estimate, but that part could represent a market opportunity of at least 5,000 machines. Then also what we expect is and what we have seen in many markets is that also the larger retailers will potentially underestimate the capacity that they need for collecting beverage containers. So also you will expect to see continued sales into those. So as we have communicated for Poland for quite some time is that we expect our rollout here lasting at least 2 to 3 years. But the initial phase that is really happening now is then representing a total market of approximately 10,000 to 12,000 machines. And then for Portugal, the indication is that now in the initial phase is 2,500 installations. This is even publicly communicated in Portugal. And then we'll see over time if that again is an underestimation of the market. So there is also an opportunity for an additional sales there. And of course, this is always the initial phase and getting a large share in that initial phase is so important, because then you will get the opportunities of replacements. Some of these retailers are growing. They are changing stores all the time. That will create opportunities for sales and you are getting the service revenue that comes after.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#8

And the next question is coming from Elliott Jones at Danske Bank.

Elliott Geoffrey Jones

Analysts
#9

Just on Collection first, I'm just kind of trying to get an understanding of the -- I know we talked about it a bit, but the margins and the selling prices. So just kind of given the developments, is it fair to assume that whenever we have Poland as the majority contributor in a quarter, will we likely have gross margins under 40%? Or was there a more special mix within Poland this quarter that's kind of abnormal?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#10

Yes. Thank you for that question, Elliott. So when we have deliveries to Poland, we will have an impact on the margin around 1 percentage points, what we have seen now in Q1. But of course, the business mix in Collection also plays a role here. So when we are now seeing volumes on the throughput coming in later in the year, that will have a positive impact. But this is then specifically, when we talk about the product margin, specifically related to Poland.

Elliott Geoffrey Jones

Analysts
#11

Got it. And so just on that, like just linked to kind of selling prices in general, I mean, given this, is it fair to assume that your selling prices have dropped across the board? I mean, just frankly, I think that's what the market could assume? Or is that potentially not the case? I know you mentioned that you hope to have gross margins for the full year above 40%. So I just want some clarity on that, that would be helpful.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#12

Yes. Our target is that we should have a gross margin in Collection above 40%. And of course, as Eva said, there is quite some variations within our portfolio. We knew that there would be tough competition in the new markets. We knew that there would be price pressure. It is important for us to get a large share initially at the same time as we want to maintain our margins. So this is a balance that we are playing when we are then deciding our commercial tactics in the different markets. This doesn't mean that the overall price level is going down. This doesn't mean that we expect the gross margins overall to go down over time. But we will see quarterly variations. Also typically, we have lower margins on RVM sales versus service. So when you also have higher shares of sales of equipment versus service, you will see lower margins in that quarter.

Elliott Geoffrey Jones

Analysts
#13

Really helpful. And then just last quarter, you highlighted an order book of EUR 100 million in collections of February. Can you provide any highlights as to how this has developed since then?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#14

So when we talked about that EUR 100 million, that was firm orders that we were going to deliver into the year. And out of that, we have delivered -- we will deliver more of what we have delivered in Q1 now going into Q2. So I think that's answering your question, Elliott. And then, of course, we expect also orders to come in throughout the year, but not necessarily linked to that EUR 100 million that we talked about in Q1.

Elliott Geoffrey Jones

Analysts
#15

Got it. And then sorry, 2 more questions. Just down the P&L for Collection, I know we talked about gross margins, but could you provide any kind of color in terms of OpEx development just so we can get a link to EBITA margins versus Q1, for example?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#16

Yes. So for Q1, we have seen -- so first of all, we have added in Clynk, that has an impact on the cost side. We have had inflation in the period, but also that we are now -- we have had quite some high activity in Poland that also drives cost, and we are ramping up in U.K. with all the activities that are ongoing there. We had EUR 50 million OpEx in the quarter, and this is what we would assume would be the OpEx in Collection more or less in the following quarters as well for 2026.

Elliott Geoffrey Jones

Analysts
#17

Really helpful. And last question, just in Food. You mentioned the potato segment. Can you provide any kind of color as to how much the potato segment has been in terms of last 12 months order intake for TOMRA? Has it been a meaningful portion? Or is it more diversified now?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#18

It has definitely been a meaningful position, but also what we have worked on is really diversifying our portfolio so that we are not so dependent on some few categories. And as I said now, citrus is more or less at the same level as the potato segment was in the past. And we have worked very systematically now on really mapping the different categories that we are focusing on, mapping their investment cycles, so that also we can plan how do we allocate our resources into the different cycles, also then linked with our innovation pipeline.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#19

Thank you, Elliott. And the next question is coming from Daniel Vårdal Haugland at ABG.

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#20

I have a couple of questions. So just firstly, on Q1 in Collection. So if we kind of think about it in terms of ramping production in Collection, I'm just observing that the Q1 revenues was basically flattish versus Q4. So can you comment a bit more on this? Because I think many had the impression that there would be a step-up given the Poland rollout. So is there something that has happened here? Or is this just more machines in Poland going to be rolled out in Q2? That's the first question.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#21

Yes. So when we had the Q4 announcement, we talked about the weather situation in Poland. Quite some snow in the first month of the year and made it difficult to go in and do the installation and also for our customers to prepare the sites. So we have the backlog for Poland. We are delivering according to what we are able to deliver. So we're progressing very well, and we will have a strong Q2 on the Poland deliveries as well. So I would say it's according to what we would expect given the challenges that we had on the weather situation in Poland in the first month of 2026.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#22

And when you compare the revenue in Q4 versus...

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#23

Basically, it seems like it's more...

Tove Andersen

Executives
#24

Just to say one thing in a way, when you compare revenue in Q4 with revenue in Q1, you have to remember the seasonality in our throughput volume, if you're sort of...

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#25

Yes. Okay. And then on U.K., is there anything you can kind of tell on when you expect any kind of conclusions on tenders? We've already seen one of your competitors announce a couple of orders. So yes, on that. And also, can you maybe confirm whether you will announce orders in U.K. when you get them? Or is there kind of any dynamics with frame agreements, et cetera, that will make you not announce orders even though you're getting them?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#26

Yes. It's very exciting in the U.K. currently, a lot of commercial activities, a lot of tenders, tender processes are ongoing. We expect most of those to be concluded this year and to be signed this year, while most of the deliveries will happen next year. And then Eva can say a bit about our policy on announcing.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#27

Yes. So when it comes to announcing on the contracts, what we have done in the past and also we continue to do going forward, it's all about what is significant for TOMRA. And we have had kind of like that threshold of 1,500 machines more or less. But of course, we are evaluating this case by case if it's of importance for the market to know about contracts being signed. So that's also the way we will handle this also going forward for the U.K. market assessment case by case. But think about the threshold in combination with importance for the market.

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#28

And on the kind of -- can you confirm or disconfirm that you kind of have any big type of frame agreements that will be likely be drawn on versus kind of other markets, et cetera?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#29

No, we have -- of course, we have frame agreements with different large retailers in Europe. And in addition to that, typically, we will set up kind of sub agreements for the specific country.

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#30

And would you then kind of -- if there is a big draw on our frame agreement, would that kind of go in under the policy of 1,500 machines?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#31

Yes, typically, yes.

Daniel Vårdal Haugland

Analysts
#32

Okay. Okay. And then my last question is on Recycling. So I see the orders down again quite in Q1 versus -- you had a boost in Q4. So can you give a little bit more flavor on this? Because is it such that the customers have been more kind of on the fence given the macro situation with the war, et cetera, towards the end of the quarter? Or is there kind of anything else in that number?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#33

Yes, I can say a bit general and then you can add if there are some more details. When you look at the order intake, there will be quarterly variations. We believe underlying, because we also look at the whole pipeline. So we have a visibility of all projects being discussed, evaluated to be invested on. And based on our total kind of pipeline, so not only the orders that have gone into the order backlog, we will say that the market sentiment is stable. So that decline that you see doesn't really represent the underlying market sentiment. And then you can have quarterly variations because you could have, I don't know, a EUR 3 million, EUR 4 million order or 2 of those coming in one quarter versus the other, which will create some of those jumps.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#34

Yes. Nothing to add. It's more about the timing.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#35

Thank you, Daniel. And the next question will come from Markus Heiberg at SEB.

Markus Heiberg

Analysts
#36

So I might have missed the first one, but how much of the backlog in Collection have you delivered in Q1 out of the EUR 100 million? And how much have you added to that backlog intake in Q1? That's the first one. And the second one is, how do you assess your market share in Q1 compared with sort of your installations versus the market? Those are the 2 first questions, at least.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#37

Yes. So I can do the orders, and then you can talk about market share, Tove. So we communicated the EUR 100 million in Q4 going into 2026. And as you see from the presentation, we have had revenues of EUR 49 million in new markets. So we have delivered from that EUR 100 million into the Q1, but we will deliver more of that EUR 100 million into Q2. So that's the status of the EUR 100 million. And then we're probably not going in and communicate on what kind of will be added to that EUR 100 million. I think we will stop that here now and more communicate on the progress in the market as the quarters develop. But we will deliver more into Q2 from that EUR 100 million.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#38

And then on market share, as I said, we estimate this initial rollout to represent 10,000 to 12,000 machines. We have 4,000 machines installed by end of Q1, and the momentum in Poland will continue in Q2, in line with what we have done in Q1.

Markus Heiberg

Analysts
#39

And to follow up on that, do you expect still the first rollout to be done by Q2? Or will it go into Q3, Q4?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#40

It is sliding a bit. As Eva talked about the snow and that continued also into a bit early this year. And that also, as Eva said, out of the 100, we have delivered less than half of that in the quarter. So we see now things are pushing a bit out in time, but the majority will still be first half and then we'll go into additional orders coming in, as I talked about, as collection rates are ramping up, because when you launch a deposit, initially, there will be very few containers coming back to the retailers. As that volume is ramping up, the retailers will assess the capacity they have, they will come new orders and so forth. But this initial phase will mainly be done by end of Q2.

Markus Heiberg

Analysts
#41

And the final one for me is on other markets. So the backlog that you communicated last quarter was related to 3 specific markets, but then you also mentioned that the other markets will sort of step down. So that suggests to me at least that there are some revenues here from markets that was not in the backlog in the EUR 49 million in new market. So how much of the EUR 49 million was related to the backlog and how much was related to the other markets?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#42

Yes. I think giving specifics on that, it's very sensitive for the different markets that we operate in. But we have delivered less than half of that EUR 100 million into Q1 and then we'll deliver more in Q2.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#43

Yes. And we had contributions, for example, from Romania in the quarter, that is part of the EUR 49 million, which is continuing delivering quite some time after their launch date.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#44

Thank you, Markus. Do we have another question from -- we have one coming in from Adela Dashian at Jefferies.

Adela Dashian

Analysts
#45

Just 2 questions from me. First, on tariffs. There was a change to Section 232 earlier in April. Do you see this impacting your effective blended tariff rate at all?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#46

Yes. So we don't necessarily see that, that will impact significantly on how we operate, Adela. And then, of course, we are trying as much as possible to push the potential impact to our customers on the additional cost. But we will, of course, come back with details if it turns out to be significant for TOMRA.

Tove Andersen

Executives
#47

Yes. We don't have a significant tariff cost in our P&L, but of course, it's still impacting the investment sentiment. Yes.

Adela Dashian

Analysts
#48

Okay. I see. Do you know what your effective tariff rate was prior to this change? Because if I'm remembering correctly, 50% tariff on just the metals content and then there was an additional tariff on the remaining value. So I would assume that your blended rate would have been lower than 50%.

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#49

Yes. That's correct. And I'm happy to come back to you with further details on that after the call, Adela.

Adela Dashian

Analysts
#50

Great. And then also, did you specify what percentage of your revenues in Collection came from existing versus new markets in the quarter?

Eva Sagemo

Executives
#51

Yes, we did. So out of the EUR 208 million that we had in Collection, EUR 49 million came from the new markets and the rest from existing.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#52

I think that was -- do we have another question from you, Morayo Adesina? I see your hand is raised. So please go ahead and ask it.

Morayo Adesina

Analysts
#53

Sorry. Just 2 follow-ups. Just on the Middle East conflict, I know obviously, you mentioned the impact it's been having on plastic prices. I'm just wondering if there are any other impacts that you're seeing in terms of your business or if it's not really relevant. And then secondly, have you disclosed whether or not Poland is largely a throughput market versus sales and service in terms of the business model that's there?

Tove Andersen

Executives
#54

Yes. So Poland is mainly a sales and service market. On the Middle East situation, of course, this is impacting all businesses. We have done an assessment of both the direct impact and potentially indirect impact, which will be caused by higher inflation, energy prices increases, et cetera, and put in place mitigating actions to ensure that we are covering that risk. But of course, the main impact for us is linked to the investment sentiment and what will this do to the underlying GDP growth throughout the different countries. And the general investment sentiment is both in Food and in Recycling, a large portion of our sales is into CapEx projects. So currently, we don't see any kind of large short-term impacts. But of course, depending on how this develops, there is significant risk now, and it definitely is not helping to boost the recovery within Recycling.

Daniel Sundahl

Executives
#55

And with that, I believe we have reached the end of today's presentation. Thank you, everyone, for tuning in. The next time we will be here is on the 17th of July with our Q2 results. Thank you very much, and have a nice day. Goodbye.

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