TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, good afternoon, if you are connecting from Europe. Welcome to TotalEnergies' Strategy & Outlook Presentation 2025. We are live from Manhattan in New York City. You can also follow us live from our website, totalenergies.com. The program today will start with the strategy and outlook presentation with Patrick and the executive members -- the Executive Committee members for a bit more than 1 hour. And we will then move to a Q&A session where, of course, you will be able to ask all the questions you want. As usual, we have a dedicated line for the people who could not attend the event. We should be moving to the lunch around 11:30, 11:45. The lunch is just next door. Your table number should be on your badge. Remember that this afternoon, starting at 2:00 p.m., we have now our traditional roundtable sessions. You should have all your program with you, in case, just ask. I think we are now ready to start. And as you know, safety is a core value at TotalEnergies, and we are always starting our meeting with a safety moment. So I invite now Namita Shah, President, OneTech, to join me on stage for a sequence on safety.

Thank you very much. Good morning, everyone. I'd like to use the safety moment this morning to talk to you about how we can use technology and technological innovation to reduce the exposure of our people in high-risk situations. As many of you know, a lot of our work involves entering into confined spaces like storage tanks or the hubs of our FPSOs to do regular investigations on asset integrity and in particular, with respect to corrosion. Technological advances have happened over the past 3 years that we have combined to try to expose the risk that our people have while entering into these confined spaces. As you know, drone technology has advanced significantly, and drones are now smaller, lighter and more easily maneuverable in confined spaces. Camera technology has greatly evolved to be able to take high-resolution images in places where there is probably not enough light. And artificial intelligence has evolved to be able to interpret images that we take in -- via our drones in these confined spaces. Let's show you a video to show you exactly what I mean by what we've done. [Presentation]

So as you may have understood while it might not completely eliminate the need for our people to go into confined spaces, it greatly reduces the number of times they need to go in by using remote technology to do the first scans and then to identify the very precise locations where people then need to go in to conduct further investigation on corrosion. Just to continue on safety. You can see that on this slide, the safety journey at TotalEnergies has been one of continuous improvement, whether or not we want to follow it by the total recordable injury rate or the number of events of primary losses of containment, the improvement that we have made versus 2015, over the past 10 years, has been significant, and we continue to work to reduce both of these incidents. And we can definitely say that we are among the best-in-class with respect to our peers. As you know, our objective remains zero fatality. Unfortunately, we have had one fatality in 2025, where we lost someone in Angola as a result of some drilling casings that were not properly secured on one of our supply vessels. Two people were injured and one of them succumbed to their injuries. He was 51 years old. He was married, and he was father to a young son. Our objective will continue to protect our people and diminish their exposure to high-risk environments, and technology is definitely one of the ways in which we want to push forward to be able to achieve our zero fatality objective. Thank you very much. And I now hand over to Patrick.

Good morning, everybody, everybody in New York or wherever you are. So I'm happy again to welcome you with the Executive Committee of TotalEnergies. You have four colleagues on the scene, which will contribute to the presentation this morning, Bernard Pinatel for the Downstream, Nicolas for the Upstream, and Stephane for the LNG and Integrated Power. In the room are present not only Jean-Pierre, our CFO and Namita, but also Aurelien Hamelle, our Strategy and Sustainability President; as well as Vincent Stoquart, our Refining & Chemicals President, who will participate -- all of them, to the roundtables. I don't participate to the roundtable. So I know they will work this afternoon while we have all the fun. And the only person which is not here today because she just joined the Executive Committee, we'll have the opportunity to meet her, is Catherine Remy, who is now in charge of people and social engagement, so -- and also of global services in the company. You will have opportunity to meet her next time if you join us. So we are happy to be with you for this traditional strategy outlook of TotalEnergies. Before to engage and to enter into the presentation itself, some few introductory words. We probably surprised you last week because the Board has -- we have made a press release with the decision of the Board regarding the shareholder returns. We've done it voluntarily in advance compared to this presentation because this presentation is about the strategy. It's about the assets, the operations, and we were thinking that -- we didn't want that presentation to be only about buybacks and other elements, which are, of course, very important for you. We don't minimize shareholder returns, obviously. But we thought it was time to, I mean, answer to what we observed. In fact, in end of July, we made the decision at the Board level to maintain our buybacks at $2 billion per quarter. For the third quarter, the market -- clearly, the share did not react very well. So we have to listen to what the market thinks. The net debt increase was denting, I would say, the shares. So we decided to listen and to adapt ourselves, to adapt as well by providing you the scheme, and I will come back on it. [ We are ] somewhere -- buybacks are linked to the price environment, not only the oil, but also the, I say, refining margin, but also petrochemicals and also the dollar-euro exchange rate, which has an impact on us because the dividend is expressed in euro. So obviously, it's -- when you have $1.2 per euro instead of $1.1, it's an additional -- almost $800 million for us of -- to allocate to the dividend in dollar, for the benefit, by the way, of our U.S. shareholders, which are looking today to a higher increase of the dividend than our European ones. But that, I will come back, of course, on this, and I'm sure we'll have questions about the return to shareholder scheme. Board also insisted, of course, that priority is given strongly to the dividend. You know our long history. We'll come back on it. But today, I want to insist, in fact, more and of course, through this presentation, so the way we execute our strategy is, the two words I want to use, is consistency. We will not be surprised. It's not a revolution. There are some few evolutions, but we are considering that our differentiated strategy is -- and growth strategy will deliver results. It's beginning to deliver results from '25 with an increase of production of more than 3%. And we have a trajectory, on which we will come back, which is even comforted compared to last year, as almost 95% of the production expected by 2030 is already sanctioned and under construction. So we'll come back on it. And the other word I will use is efficiency because we are, of course, progressing in the way we execute our strategy. And so we can do the same growth and -- but with, I would say, less CapEx and OpEx. So we have implemented -- we are implementing a cash saving program of $7.5 billion. So same with less, that's the idea. We control, as you know. And why do we do that? We do that because we have some uncertainties about the environment in which we are working. Price of oil is $10 lower than last year. It's still $70, still good one, but there are some few uncertainties, including on the macro environment, et cetera, which we think is good to anticipate and to take actions. So in the company, since I'm CEO, I always say we are -- we must be strong on what we control. It's what we control in this business, in particular, is the -- of course, the use of our assets in order to deliver production and refine productions, but also what we spend. And so that's why we will introduce that. So the news is that we can do with -- around $16 billion guidance of CapEx. So that's the part. So consistency and efficiency. The other objective this morning, I know that you love 2030, but you have -- sometimes you prefer to know what will happen tomorrow morning. So we'll give you some more -- I received some message, which, of course, we take into account. So for this presentation, we intend to give you some middle points, '27, '28 -- '27, so that you have a shorter-term perspective on the way we intend to deliver. And it's not -- everything is not back loaded. You will see that most of the free cash we intend to deliver will be -- half of the free cash, in fact, we intend to deliver, so $10 billion additional free cash by 2030. Half of it will be delivered in the first half of this '24, '27 journey. So that's the other important message I think we will go through. So again, no revolution, but some evolutions in terms of how we could deploy the model in a more efficient way. The other message, by the way, is that, yes, we are consistent with our differentiated strategy, including the diversification in electricity because we progress as well on this one. And you will see that we can do -- reach our objective of growth more than 100 terawatt hour, with also less CapEx. And Stephane will come back on the way we are, I would say, focusing our strategy on some key major, I would say, markets in Europe, U.S., Brazil and streamlining what we do in renewables outside, I would say, of these key markets. So that's the global message today. And our objective, of course, is to maximize the free cash flow despite this more uncertain environment. So the environment first, just to come back on the fundamentals, which drive the strategy. On the oil markets, we continue to believe that there are strong fundamentals supporting bullish prices, I would say, even if in the shorter term, we see some uncertainties. The shorter term, you know it as well as me, we have quite an abundant supply because in '25 and beginning '26, we have some non-OPEC supply growth coming from the U.S., from Brazil, from Guyana and others. And we have also in this market, the OPEC+ countries, which are willing to maintain a certain level of market share, which are unwinding their voluntary cuts step after step, surely but slowly -- slowly but surely in that direction. So of course, quite a strong supply. The demand on the same time, because of the, I would say, economic uncertainty, the trade tariff, in particular, in Asia is, I would say, more softened. It's quite soft. So -- but in the demand side, you have also an element of -- which has to be taken into account, it's the stockpiling from China and potentially the U.S., SPR replenishment, which takes place. And we also know when the price is going down, U.S. shale oil production is quite reactive. So that's the short term, and we can see on the chart that we have some -- six quarters in a row of, I would say, inventory builds, even if global inventories still are at, I would say, 60 days, which is not so high. But the fundamentals on the oil market for us are positive because, in fact, this non-OPEC supply growth, we don't see it beyond, I would say, '27. We see -- most of it will be done. And in particular, if the price is softening, we know that the U.S. shale producers, the decline is higher. So if there is -- generally, when the price is lower, the CapEx is also lower. So it does not contribute to fight the natural decline. The IEA just discovered again that there is a natural decline of 5% to 6% per year. So it's good. That's the fundamental of the supply market, oil markets. But I agree, even they increase it. So I mean, I was using 4% to 5%. It's 5% to 6%, so that means that the challenge is even more. And the other trend, which is supportive of these oil markets, of course, is that what we observe everywhere in the world is that -- from the demand side is that there is a slower shift to low-carbon alternative because customers are prioritizing affordability. This is very clear everywhere. Despite the governmental policies in Europe, in the U.S., we observed that trend. So we are, I would say, quite bullish on the oil market on the medium term, even if on the short term, we have to -- we could face some uncertainties. Having said that, price is still quite stable, in fact, at between $65, $70 per barrel, even $70, I think, today. On the gas markets, we observed two phenomenon on this slide that I want to comment. The first one on left is, I would say, back to normal, sort of normalized volatility. It's quite clear that '21, you can see there on a yearly basis, the evolution of the European gas price, the TTF along 1 year. And you can see the range of -- I would say, the evolution of TTF in '21, '22, '23. '22 was exceptional, but '21 was strong, and '23 still was strong. And in fact, what we observed in '25 is more back to normal, which, of course, explains that we don't have these exceptional market conditions with high volatility out of which a trading business was, in fact, quite, I would say, easier to make very high margins and very high results. So we have -- back to normal that we have to take into account. Even if in the absolute price in Europe, in particular, we'll have, I think, an average price in '25, $12 per million BTU. The forward is still $11 -- around $11, $12 for next 2 years because, in fact, so we still see, I would say, quite a tight supply. We will see the beginning of new LNG capacities coming in the market in '26, but some projects are delays in that business. So we are quite confident to have, I would say, to benefit from -- for '26 and even '27, some absolute good price even if the volatility is lower. In particular, in Europe, you observed the political debate about banning Russian LNG from '27, more from '28, which, of course, will add somewhere some tension in that market. So having said that, beyond all of these projects -- of LNG projects, to which we participate, by the way, in some of them, in Qatar, in the U.S., will come on stream. So from '28, there is no doubt that we'll face a wave of supply of LNG. We experienced it -- and this is a chart on the right. We experienced it, I would say, almost every 10 years in this business and where we are quite high. It's very cyclical business when the price is high, people are planning to new plants. As soon as the price is softening, we stop taking FID of new plants. So we'll have to absorb this wave. It took generally 2, 3 years to absorb it. It's generally, of course -- lower prices are fostering demand, in particular, in Asia. And the gas-to-power -- I would say the coal-to-gas switch for industry in Asia is encouraged by the lower price, and the elasticity to the price is quite high. So we are optimistic that we'll be able to absorb the industry. We'll be able to -- market will be able to absorb this wave of supplies. We plan 6%, 7% of demand increase per year. You can observe that it was, in fact, higher than that when the price is lower in the previous two waves. So that's the situation, but we have to take into account in the planning. So bullish, I would say, on the oil, a little more cautious on the gas. But again, with no doubt that these lower prices will foster demand and will absorb these new LNG capacities, and the cycle will come back again. On the power side, I will not comment long because Stephane will comment that slide. Just to tell you that, in fact, it's continued to grow, more than 3%. It was about 3.4% last year. We announced 3.7% for 2025 according to statistics. It's driven by a lot of things, including digitalization of the world, not only decarbonization. And we need to have, in fact, more capacities, including a lot of flexible generation, but Stephane will come back on it. So these fundamentals are there, are strong, and they are supportive of the -- I would say, of the strategy that we have in electricity. So I told you we are facing, potentially, some uncertainties in the short-term, macro uncertainty. We need to keep agility. So we decided to put in place a plan to take actions in different point of view in order to deliver the free cash flow growth that we have announced and to maintain the strong shareholder returns, but also in the same time, keeping agility, keeping a healthy balance sheet. So at the center of this slide, we -- of course, we want to deliver, and we have the portfolio of core accretive projects. So we want to deliver the growth. So there is no way for us to, I would say, renounce that growth. These projects are good and all are very resilient. As you know, we sanction a project in upstream if we have CapEx + OpEx lower than $20 per barrel. So they are low breakeven. And we are already -- it's not only a growth for 2030, we are beginning to deliver that growth, I will come back on it, in '25, and to confirm, in '26. So the 4% per year energy production growth, oil, gas, electricity throughout 2030 is confirmed. We will do it by being more efficient from, I would say, cash spend. So we have a capacity after -- in the portfolio, and we'll come back on that to streamline the CapEx. So the guidance was $16 billion to $18 billion. It will go down to $15 billion, $17 billion, even $16 billion in '26, just to show you that we not just -- it's not [ truest ] word, but we are executing the plan. And we have also, on the OpEx, over the next 5 years, I would say, $500 million per year of OpEx savings in the different businesses, I would say, upstream, refining and chemicals, marketing and services. The only one which is not -- which is still growing is, I would say, electricity business where we are more growing than -- but even if we are serious about OpEx. So -- and then the last pillar of this action plan is to adapt or to adjust, I would say, the shareholder returns, in particular on the buyback price. Again, the Board considered that the dividend is sacrosanct. I was surprised by -- we were surprised by some comments in July that maybe the dividend could be at stake. In fact, we've never been at stake during 40 years, even during the COVID. This dividend is really -- completely secured. And it will be fueled by, of course, buyback, but also by cash flow growth as we've done it in the last 3 years. We also want things to be that what means a healthy balance sheet, maintaining the gearing lower than 20%. We plan that to have it more around 15%. But in order to give a guidance, which we didn't have until now, this is what we'll -- I would say, the guidance given to you. And adapting the buybacks. And in $70 per barrel, which is our environment today, it's a reality. In fact, at the end of the day, this year, we'll make cash flow from operation more of $27 billion, than $29 billion as planned. And the difference is coming from one side on the fact that we are expecting a higher volatility on the gas price environment, which is not the case. So there is -- there will be a difference in terms of cash results from the -- but Stephane will come back on that on the gas business. And we have also downstream margins, which are under pressure, I would say, on petrochemicals. Refining margins are better in the second half of the year, at least the third quarter, but the first year -- first half was quite, in fact, quite, I would say, very low. We are, in this downstream market, facing some overcapacity somewhere, globally in the world. And that's even if you could have some support, for example, for the diesel today because linked to the Russian disruptions, I think it's a normal -- it's an environment we need to take into account. So that's the action plan. So coming back to the fundamentals of the -- I would say, the next 5-year business plan. First, growing energy production. This slide is almost the same than last year because we are still there. We are -- the oil and gas, we are big in oil and gas, I would say, growing this production by 3% per year. It will be the case in '25. It will be again the case next year with this, obviously, very good portfolio of accretive projects, and Nicolas will come back on that. On Integrated Power, the business model is confirmed, and we will deliver as well more than 100 terawatt hour, which is more or less 20% of the energy production by the end of the decade. So a global growth of 4% per year of energy production. We'll do it with, I would say, less CapEx. So this is, I think, the important update of this presentation. We are revising the guidance CapEx, reducing by $1 billion, so $15 billion to $17 billion, but $16 billion as an average and $16 billion in 2026. It's not done. This CapEx, it's a net CapEx. So -- but the M&A part is almost neutral, in fact, on the period '26, 2030. In '26, there is $1 billion more divestment than acquisition. And we'll come back on it. So that's important. We have the flexibility in case of very low prices to go down to $14 billion if we need to do it, like we've done during the COVID period, by the way. So there is -- but again, the important point there is that we can deliver the growth with an average of $16 billion. You can observe that on the low carbon businesses, we are allocating $4 billion per year, mainly to Integrated Power, $3 billion to $4 billion, $3.5 billion as an average, and we'll come back on it. So the revision of the guidance, I would say it's half on the low carbon business, half on the oil and gas business. So this, Nicolas will come back, so I will not insist on this one, even if I'm insisting on one major point, which is 95% of the 2030 production started-up or is under development, under construction. So it's not just figures. You can see that the pre-FID ones is quite light on the top of it. When we say it's accretive projects, you can see that this project will deliver at $60 per barrel, $25 per barrel compared of our base portfolio of $15 per barrel of cash flow from operations. So it's not only [ scaled ] figures, which explains why we have an increase of a quicker increase, by the way, of the cash flow from operation and the free cash flow at the end as we maintain the CapEx through the period. It's cost efficient [ against the rules ] of less than $20 per barrel for each project and OpEx -- upstream OpEx will be maintained under $5 per barrel. And it's diversified in terms of geographic thematics. So when we look to the world where, I would say, there are a lot of -- more tensions, geopolitical tension, I think our answer, which is to have a diversified geography, is from this perspective, offering some way to manage these geopolitical uncertainties in our portfolio. The LNG is also growing quickly. We are strong. We have -- our sales were around 40 million tonnes in 2024, 30 million tonnes coming from our equity or supply portfolio, 10 million tonnes from the spot business. The base of 30 million tonnes will grow to 45 million tonnes in the period -- over the period. You have the list of the projects and some of them will be put on stream, and you can see the beginning of the increase by 2028. ECA, the Qatar NFE, Rio Grande Train 1 to 4, NFS in Qatar, Marsa LNG. And then on the second part of the period, we'll have Ruwais LNG in Abu Dhabi, Mozambique LNG and Rio Grande Train 4 that we just sanctioned. A word about Mozambique LNG. So we are moving on the -- everything is ready. In fact, we are remobilizing on the ground, but we have the last -- the last piece of the -- I would say, of the decision to officially lift the force majeure is that there are discussions to -- government of Mozambique will approve the updated development plan because we need to have to update it with a new target in terms of starting operations. It will be 2029, but we plan to start up the operations. And of course, updating the budget with the impact of the force majeure. So that is currently being assessed, and we'll move, I think, very quickly on that. On the security side, we have been -- we had very -- we have been, I would say, reassured by the strong commitment of the government of Mozambique, including, with the government of Rwanda. There was an important agreement signed by both countries in end of August, which is securing -- considering what we were -- considering underground. And we know that on our side, we have moved to what we call the containment mode, which is, in fact, the peninsula of Afungi, where's we will execute the project, which is a very large peninsula. It's completely under control and all the contractors working and all employees working for our projects will be in this peninsula, working, living, transporting, and we'll be able to have a secure construction phase. We assess that, of course, with our colleagues of ExxonMobil as well, and we are aligned in close cooperation on the fact that we can restart the operation quickly. So that's for this one. Having said that, on this portfolio, not only we have, I would say, an increase of our production and development with very competitive U.S. supply, in particular, Rio Grande Train 1 to 4, we have also -- and Stephane will come back on it, worked hard, and we installed that last year in order to -- as we are more bullish on the oil and potentially on the LNG spot price, linking -- transforming our Henry Hub supply into oil-linked sales. We -- I think we signed for almost 8 million tonnes of contracts. So it's quite a big effort. So we are fine. And we are also, as you have observed, and we make a new announcement this morning, continuing to, I would say, reduce the exposure to the Henry Hub by integrating upstream gas value chain as well in order to -- in case of hike in Henry Hub because a lot of LNG exports will be protected from this risk. So -- and that's an important piece of our future free cash flow. Integrated Power, I will -- the message there is that we can do the growth by again, streamlining CapEx. We plan $3 billion to $4 billion. In fact, and Stephane will come back, we consider that now we progressed, and we can see what are the markets where we can deliver not only the growth but also the profitability. The objective is to reach 12% return on capital employed. And these are markets where we can really integrate the value chain like the U.S., ERCOT, PJM markets, like Europe, Germany, U.K. and [indiscernible] France, potentially other countries. Stephane will come back on it. And so that's the best way to -- and on the other ones, having observed many markets, we know what we want to do on some markets, and we intend, in fact, to streamline some renewables countries and then divesting them in non-core markets. The key point there is, there is a logic in all that, is a gas-to-power. We need more gas-to-power. That's the logic of the integration within the company. We need more flexible energy to cope with the intermittency of renewables, and we need also to accelerate [ BESS ] development. So Stephane will come back on this presentation. We confirm that we'll be net cash positive by 2028, and -- but then this business will contribute to the dividend. So that's, I would say, the most important slide from investors' point of view. Growth is good in terms of volumes, but at the end, it's value which is important in terms of free cash. So on the left side, you have what we said, the reinvestment rate, which is how much CapEx do we plan to present as a percentage of our cash flow from operations. So you can see that, yes, today, we are in '24, we are reinvesting almost 70%. If we go down to 50% and then 45%, which means that we have more room to, in fact, return to shareholders. And in terms of absolute figures, there you have an intermediate point, 2027. The growth of the free cash between '24 and 2030 at a normalized price, which is $70 Brent, $8 per million BTU. For the gas is around $10 billion. And by '27 and midpoint, we will deliver almost half of it, let's say, $4 billion to $5 billion. This free cash is coming from one side, of course, from the CFFO growth itself, but also for the fact that we have streamlined the CapEx for $1 billion. So that's, I would say, the figure you keep in mind. So I will come back on it, but there is more room to return to shareholders in the coming years. The life does not stop in 2030 because there is -- in a company like an oil and gas company, we know that we have to prepare the future and to anticipate. I'm very proud that this company has been able to maintain this reserve life index of -- above 12 years of proven reserves. I think there are only two companies among the majors. We managed to do it. I'm proud to be at the same level -- the large -- #1 in the industry. It's fundamental. We continue to develop valuable optionality in our portfolio. We have Namibia to which we progress on the first development with Namibian authorities. We have also, in our portfolio, some -- if we are so keen on Mozambique, it's because we know that there will be additional phases beyond this Phase 1, and we will work to make it in an optimal way. We have the Papua LNG options. We are looking to some Canada Pacific opportunities. We have also established a base in Malaysia. And you'll notice that after the first acquisition, and I think Nicolas will come back on it, we have been very active to grow this portfolio, both on exploration and on [ DROs ] in order to grow this new hub. Exploration, by the way, I just mentioned exploration. We continue to maintain these exploration efforts. $1 billion in exploration appraisal since 2015, we're almost stable. I think it's important. Our teams have been quite good, like discoveries with Suriname, in Namibia. So they paid, I would say, these efforts. We have been quite active to renew our portfolio of licenses either in Nigeria, some new license, the first licenses acquired for 10 years in the Niger Delta. Here, U.S. onshore, offshore, where we want to invest together with Chevron and Congo, Suriname as well and more frontier prospects in Algeria, Indonesia, Liberia. So that's also preparing the future. On the Integrated Power, the pipeline does not -- we have a large pipeline, but life does not end by 2030. We consider that we'll continue to deploy the strategy and from 100 to 120 terawatt hour by 2030, probably to go to around 150 terawatt hour by 2035, with the capacity and the progress of a better understanding of these markets and to continue to deploy the, I would say, capital for the benefit of shareholders. 2030, what is important for all the execution of all this strategy, it will be my next -- last message is, of course, our people. Because our people are at the end, I would say, of the -- human -- the success of this strategy -- of the execution. I prefer people [ than ] human resource. Personally, it's our people. We are recruiting, continuing to recruit and very -- the company is attractive, I would say, we have more than 150 applications for each position open. We are recruiting all over the planet, more than 40% women, by the way, on our recruitment, including in electricity, where we are considered as a very serious players, and we attract a lot of talent, but also in oil and gas. So the business model of the company remains attractive. And even we have engaged employees. We have the last survey we've done, '24, '25, at the worldwide level. We are very proud, and you can compare to the benchmark of the oil and gas benchmarks given to us by the people who are making these type of surveys. They are trusting -- they have a good confidence in the strategy. They are engaged. So that's very good. That's, I think, [ really ] at the heart of the success. And not only they are engaged and happy, I would say, but they are committed shareholders. They are spending -- I would say, they receive more like $600 million of dividend per year, global, all our shareholders -- of our employees, shareholders. And they reinvest more than $500 million of it in the company every year. So in the last 10 years, we moved from 5% of employee shareholding to almost 9%, 8.9% and with annual capital increase. So I think it's a good demonstration of their trust and it's, I think, the best way to align interest of shareholders and employees this -- I would say, employee shareholding that we promote actively. So I will not be longer. I will give the floor to Nicolas now, which will speak about oil and gas.

Thank you, Patrick. Good morning to you all. So let me now focus on our upstream business. And as Patrick just shared with you, we can confirm our target to grow our production by 3% per year to 2030 in a cash-accretive manner and thanks to our pipeline of projects that is particularly reached. The growth is already visible today. We've entered this growth trajectory. So we'll grow by more than 3% of production this year in 2025, thanks to the ramp-up of the projects that we started last year, Mero 3 in Brazil, Anchor, but also thanks to new start-ups that we've seen this year. In Brazil, with Mero 4 and again, in offshore U.S. with Ballymore. And the growth this year is also supported by the acquisition in Malaysia that Patrick mentioned and that I will comment a bit further, and by our position -- the position we took in U.S. shale in partnership with Lewis and EOG. Next year, it will continue. Next year, we expect again to grow our production by more than 3% with basically 3 key start-ups. The first one is the first phase of our integrated gas growth project in Iraq, the first phase of the Ratawi, in fact, oilfield development, expected to start in the first quarter of next year. The second key project for next year is NFE in Qatar, which shall start up mid-2026 for the first train. And the third one, which is rather towards the end of the year is our major development in Uganda, and I will come back to that. And then you see for the remaining part of the decade, the growth will continue with more to come, both in oil and LNG. In oil, with production from the projects we sanctioned over the past couple of years, Suriname, GranMorgu, Kaminho in Angola, Sepia 2, Atapu 2 in Brazil and the second phase also of our Ratawi development project in Iraq that was launched just a few days ago. Same in LNG with further trains in Qatar, NFE and NFS, Mozambique LNG and Ubeta. And we also have some -- a few promising pre-FID projects that can support our upstream production, which are indicated on that slide, Ima in Nigeria to supply gas to NLNG and Cronos in Cyprus. So more importantly and moving to the right part of the slide, we are growing for value. We are growing in a cash-accretive manner. And when we look in 2028, we committed that the growth of our upstream production would generate a growth of -- cash flow from operation by more than 8% based on the same price deck as 2024. So outpacing the production growth, and we are well on track to deliver that and to generate a higher cash margin per barrel in 2025 compared to last year. Now by 2030, the cash flow from operation of upstream is expected to increase by $5 billion compared to 2024 based on the same price deck and even using a lower gas price assumption at $8 per million BTU, more conservative than what we had last year or this year, in line with our macroeconomic expectations that Patrick outlined just before. And importantly, this cash flow growth, you will not wait until 2030. By 2028, we expect to generate $3 billion of additional cash flow compared to '24, again, at $70 per barrel. So going into a bit more detail on our projects. You can see here the list of our 18 key upstream projects. And you saw the same list last year. We have added 2 projects in that list, Ratawi Phase 2 in Iraq, launched a couple of weeks ago and Ubeta in Nigeria, which is an integrated project to supply -- gas project to supply NLNG. So in upstream, today, our focus #1 is to deliver those projects to support our production growth and cash flow growth, the one I just showed to you before. We operate about half of these projects. The other half is operated by third parties, but all of them by robust operators. A year ago, when we were here, only 2 of those projects have started. Today, 3 additional of those projects have started, Ballymore, Mero 4 and Fenix. And next year, we expect, as you see on the table, and as I mentioned just before, 3 major start-ups. Ratawi Phase 1. So Ratawi Phase 1 will increase our oil production from Ratawi field from 60,000 barrels per day to 120,000 barrels per day. The project is well on track, and we expect to start in Q1 2026. And I have to say that the successful execution of this project, which was launched, in fact, 2.5 years ago. So it's a project that will be delivered in less than 3 years, is a good demonstration of the ability of the company to deliver projects that bring even in remote location such as Iraq. The second one in the table is our project in Uganda, a major development, 230,000 barrels per day of production. Progress today, you can see that 60% for the upstream part at 70% for EACOP pipeline. I was looking just before that meeting, we've welded 950 kilometers of EACOP pipeline, and we are doing about 5 kilometers per day. So given the size of the project, today, the plan is that we're going to start Train 1 next year and Train 2 in 2027 and Train 1, second half of next year. And then we need a bit of time, about 2 months, to fill the pipeline on the terminal before first export. So we expect production and cash from that project in the last quarter of next year. On the third one, which is key for next year is NFE, in Qatar, well on track to deliver first LNG mid-2026 for the first train, which will be the first of 4 trains that will all be producing before mid-2028. So as I mentioned, we are doing that not for production, but for value. I'm moving to the graph on the right, which shows the upstream cash flow from operation in $1 billion. And you can see in the bars the dollar per barrel for our oil assets and gas assets. And what you can see is that we're adding volumes with margins in dollar per barrel, which are significantly higher than our existing portfolio. In oil, our current portfolio generates cash flow from operation of $22 per barrel at $70 per barrel price deck. And the new projects deliver above $40 per barrel, so almost double the existing portfolio. In gas, our current portfolio is at $12 per BOE, CFFO. On our new projects, those in the list here will generate above $15 per BOE. So definitely, we have a strong portfolio, but also clearly accretive portfolio with higher margins. And this portfolio, in fact, now if you -- again, if you look at this chart, will represent about 1 million barrel equivalent per day of production in 2030 and not far from half of the cash flow from operation of upstream. So this portfolio, moving beyond the projects, is sustainable, resilient, diversified, as Patrick mentioned, sustainable because we managed to maintain and even increase our reserve life, and this was commented by Patrick. I would just add that last year, our reserve renewal ratio was above 150%. So this helped us to -- it's behind the uptick in reserve life that you see in '24. And we managed to do that because we kept our focus on oil and gas. We continued exploring, discovering, developing and also capturing attractive opportunities through M&A. Second, on it's -- I can tell you, it's another area of strong mobilization of the upstream teams in the company. We are keeping a strong drive on our production cost to keep them at the lowest level amongst our peers. Last year, we delivered on our target, which was to keep our OpEx below $5 per BOE, and we expect to stay at the same level this year. We are working every day to offset inflation basically. And as I explained to you last year, we are working on lean operations and particularly on leveraging AI and digital to unlock efficiency gain, and you've probably seen our recent partnerships with Cognite, to deploy an industrial data platform across all our sites, all our operated assets and with Emerson also for advanced process control, which are all designed to foster efficiency gain and to further improve our industrial performance and decrease our cost. And we're also working, of course, on our supply chain and to adapt the structure of our affiliates and particularly our mature affiliates, adapt the structure to the evolution of the activities. Diversification, we -- you see here basically the split -- the geographic split of production of various companies in 2024. This diverse portfolio protects us against uncertainties, as Patrick mentioned, related to geopolitics, but also to supply chain or fiscal regime. And as an illustration, the five largest producing countries for our company represent only 50% of our overall production, which is actually the best position among the group. So let me now share with you two focus -- on two areas where the company is stronger and two areas that will be important in delivering this cash flow growth to 2030. So the first one is Middle East and North Africa. It's one of the regions where we believe we stand out compared to our peers, with not only a strong historical presence, but also very large developments ongoing currently. On this region, Middle East, basically, it's a great combination of low-cost, very long-lasting oil assets such as our assets in the UAE and Abu Dhabi and in Libya, very well positioned on the merit curve, very resilient, ensuring the longevity of operations. Second, LNG projects with a long plateau, low cost, which are well positioned on the merit curve, with operation of over 25 years, among the most competitive LNG suppliers globally. And third and a bit particular, our contract and our project in Iraq, which is based on an innovative contractual scheme for the region, and which is enabling us to capture price upside. So in the Middle East, our target is to increase our cash flow from operation by $2.5 billion between '24 and 2030 based on the price of 2024. And this will be coming a lot, in fact, from the LNG developments in Qatar and our gas growth integrated project in Iraq. So this demonstrates that MENA is -- so I'm talking here about free cash flow, that MENA is not only a place with a low-cost, long plateau production, but also a place where we'll be able to generate significant free cash flow. The second focus I wanted to share with you is deepwater, a strong area of the company. And for us, deepwater is assets and projects in West Africa, of course, Angola, Nigeria, Congo, but also in offshore U.S., in Brazil and now in Suriname. The company has been recognized for its experience, expertise in deepwater for many years. And I think our recent exploration successes in Suriname, in Namibia demonstrate that deepwater opportunities are still there, and that technical expertise is a key driver to unlock those opportunities. The key characteristic of those deepwater assets is the contracts, generally production sharing contracts, which are attractive with high margins and the ability to capture very largely the price upsides. Our growth in deepwater is based on the developments we've seen in Brazil, in the U.S., in Suriname. But not only also it's going to be based on our ability to capture and benefit from profitable tieback opportunities around our existing assets, particularly in Angola, but also in Nigeria in the future. In Suriname, you saw that we just started two tieback developments in Angola, Begonia and CLOV 3. And these projects, of course, benefit from [ all in ] our existing processing capacities and hence, a very low marginal cost, and they are highly profitable. So this portfolio of deepwater developments will deliver an increase of free cash flow of $3 billion in 2030 compared to 2024. And you can see if you look at the right part, which is the free cash flow at $50 billion on the orange, which is the free cash flow at $80 billion, I think it illustrates pretty well the price upside of those deepwater assets. Now third focus is on Malaysia. And let me share with you quickly the status of our development in Malaysia. We entered in 2024 as an operator acquiring SapuraOMV, 4 TCF of reserves. A brand new development, Jerun, that started in the second half of last year, a production of 50,000 barrel equivalent per day for the company, low cost, low emission. But also this acquisition of SapuraOMV for us was the acquisition of a platform for future growth coming from both development of existing discoveries and future exploration. So now this year, we've materialized, I would say, step 1 of this growth ambition in Malaysia, we acquired 12 blocks -- interest in 12 blocks in partnership with Petronas. On those 12 blocks, they are a combination of discovered gas resources and exploration opportunities. So we have 2 blocks holding 4 TCF with a potential development named Kenyalang, which is expected, in fact, to be launched to [ Feed ] Malaysia LNG from 2030. So this development of Kenyalang will basically double our size in Malaysia with another 50,000 barrel per day equivalent of production in company share. And of course, we certainly work to unlock more through exploration. We are just setting up an exploration hub in Asia, in Kuala Lumpur, to be close to our stakeholder and partner, Petronas. And all this is a good illustration also of how we can leverage on a partnership -- on a strategic partnership with a company like Petronas, our operator capability, our exploration and development track record to establish a new profitable position. Emissions, while growing our production, we are continuously working to reduce our emissions. You see here our Scope 1 and 2 greenhouse gas emissions for oil and gas, so not only upstream but also refining and chemical. And what you can see on the chart is that we've reduced the emissions by 36% last year compared to 2015 through energy efficiency improvement, through a very significant reduction of our flaring, through electrification and use of renewable power when it's possible and when it makes sense economically, and through the optimization of our processes, our operations, our equipment on all our assets. So -- and in downstream with the gradual usage also of green hydrogen in our refineries. So let me -- I went a bit too quick because methane is a very important area of focus on the company. On methane, we had a target to reduce our methane emission by 50% in 2025 compared to 2020. And we achieved that target last year, in fact, with 1 year in advance. So now we are tightening the objective. This year, we expect to achieve a reduction of 60%, and we've maintained our target to reduce by 80% our operated methane emissions in 2030. One point of significance I want to mention is that we've decided to roll out a very large program of permanent monitoring of our methane emissions on all our operated sites. So currently, we're installing methane emission detector and equipment on all assets, all sites. So more than 13,000 of this equipment. So that we'll be able to detect immediately any methane leak, any fugitive methane emission and react and fix it. And last, we are certainly committed to eliminate routine flaring. We're almost there. It was done in Gabon last year, and we are on track to reduce also our overall flaring by 90% in 2030 compared to 2010. By the way, all our new projects are designed for zero flaring with close flare installed and incorporated in the design. I will now hand over to Bernard for the upstream part -- downstream part.

So thank you, Nicolas, and good morning, everyone. What I would like to do now is to show you in the next few slides how downstream is going to generate and contribute with one additional $1 billion of cash flow from -- free cash flow to the company targets in a new, more challenging environment marked -- as Patrick explained, marked by overcapacities in Refining and in Petrochemicals. First of all, in downstream, you remember, we continue to execute a strategy, which consists of aligning our refining throughput and oil product sales with the upstream production level. By doing so, we progressively build a more balanced integrated value chain. And you see that we are well on track to be balanced by 2030. Over the last few years, we have done already quite a lot. We have reduced our refining capacity by 15%. We have reduced our product sales by 30% by concentrating on the most profitable part of the portfolio, and all in all, we will be on target by 2030. How do we grow these cash flows by business segments? I will come back on this. But in a nutshell, in Refining & Chemicals, after the recent years where we have enjoyed, I would say, very good margins, we are back to a so-called new normal environment with overcapacities, as I mentioned. So the key word there is, of course, is going to be the asset optimization, restoring the excellence in our operations in refining, concentrating on growing our most competitive assets in petrochemicals, which are the ones benefiting from the cheap feedstocks in the U.S. or in Middle East, of course. And of course, we keep rationalizing our European footprint. I will come back to this in a few minutes. Regarding Marketing & Services, the priority is to keep, of course, improving our margins with a strategy of value over volume, which is paying off, and I will come back to this as well in a few minutes. And all in all, for all our downstream activities, we keep a permanent focus on the cash savings in our operations, in our support functions. And of course, we keep a permanent approach being selective in our CapEx spendings like in the EV market, where we adapt our spendings based on the actual market dynamic. I will come back on this as well. So all in all, at the end of 2030, downstream will contribute by $1 billion of free cash flows to the company target. Let's turn to Refining & Chemical. First, our European operations. Here, the priority is to take the best from our assets. As Patrick explained, we do not control our environment but we control what we do, the way we operate. It means that we need to keep improving our assets availability, and we are progressing on our utilization rate, which is up compared to last year. It means also delivering cash savings, of course. We are streamlining our CapEx to focus on mandatory turnarounds and cash savings. For example, we're extending for 3 more years the energy savings plan, which we started in 2023 with a target of generating an additional $100 million of annual savings and reducing the CO2 emissions by 1 million tonnes. And of course, we are working on reducing our fixed costs through the digitalization of our operations and by improving the efficiency of our maintenance processes, for example. In petrochemicals, we also have some work to do. The market in Europe is facing an oversupplied petrochemical market. And here, we have taken action, as you all know, by announcing by the end of 2027, the closure of 1 of our 2 steam crackers in Antwerp in our Antwerp refinery. The second area where we need to adapt is on a worldwide basis, the petrochemical market, where the net capacity increases faster than the demand. I've just mentioned the action we are taking in Europe but we also adapt by investing, redeploying in regions where we can benefit from a competitive production base, namely the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. In this region, we can access to cheap feedstock, cheap energy costs, which put these assets in the top quartile in terms of the industry in terms of competitiveness. And in this region, the U.S. and Saudi Arabia, we can leverage our large integrated platform. You know that we have a large platform in Port Arthur in Texas and in Jubail. We've set up refinery in Saudi Arabia, where we are progressing well on the project Amiral. And you see that we are today -- as of today at 50% completion rate and the start-up expected by the end of 2027. All of these projects are done in partnerships to benefit from what I would call a low equity approach. And for example, with Satorp and Amiral, we do it with our colleagues from Aramco. The third market where we also need to adapt is the market of bioproducts. This is a growing market but facing 2 challenges. The demand is largely dependent on the regulation, which may change. And these bioproducts are more expensive to produce than biofuels. So we must address these 2 challenges in a pragmatic way to stay flexible and competitive, and this is what we do by leveraging our existing refining capacity to benefit from a low-cost, low OpEx basis. And I would like to spend just 1 minute on the co-processing example, which is a good example of this pragmatic approach where we produce SAF in our existing refineries by incorporating the bio feedstock with the jet fuel into the jet fuel processing units. We produce a blend with up to 10% of SAF, which is more than enough, by the way, to fulfill the European mandate by 2030 and even beyond. The beauty of this co-processing process is that it's a very competitive production pathway at marginal cost and requiring a limited upfront CapEx. It's a good example, as Patrick explained a few minutes ago, how we can grow without spending too much CapEx. And this is our priority to increase the co-processing capacities, and we are already able to produce SAF by co-processing in our Normandie and Antwerp refineries and tomorrow in Leuna. When it comes to producing pure SAF, the other choice we have made to be competitive is the retrofit of our existing refinery into biorefineries as we have done in La Mède or Grandpuits. And you know that by doing so, our CapEx intensity is, of course, much lower compared to the large greenfield project. And I'm sure you have all in mind the latest announcement of the large greenfield projects being postponed or even canceled. A last comment on the feedstock. In Europe, we have secured a competitive source of feedstock through partnerships with SARIA, which is the leader of the animal fat collection and which is our partner in our joint venture in Grandpuits and the same for the UCO where we have struck a deal with Quatra, which is the European leader of the collection of UCO with a 15 years supply agreement. If we turn now to Marketing & Service, which is also a steady cash flow generator. As I said a few minutes ago, our strategy is in one sentence, it's a strategy of value over volume. And you see on the chart on the left -- on the right-hand side that we are able to grow our cash flow despite the reduction of our sales volume. A good example is last year, where we have been able to generate more cash flows than the years before despite the divestiture of our retail network in Germany and in Benelux. To grow these cash flows, we build on our strengths on the 3 main business segments that you see on the left-hand side. On retail networks, we concentrate on the geographies where we are the leader. It means in France where we're #1. We leverage our network to grow notably our nonfuel revenues, shops, food, wash, card services. In Africa, where we're also the #1, where we keep growing on the continent enjoying a growing demand. And we exit the countries where we have a marginal position and the latest announcement we've made where Brazil and Pakistan, 2 countries which we left last year. Lubricants. So lubricants, it's a good business, a profitable one. We want to boost this business and to do it, we have changed this year. The branch organization, moving away from a regional matrix structure to create a dedicated global lubricants business unit. This business unit is organized by end markets to be more focused on the high-end applications, and by doing so, we also have been able to streamline the marketing and services branch support functions. On the EV field, we have also a very pragmatic approach. We adapt our deployment and CapEx spendings on pace with the EV market penetration. We allocate our CapEx in priority to the fast charging hubs, whereas we streamline our CapEx for the slow charging points segment, the so-called industry charging. And we are doing it by developing a low equity approach with partners and leverage exactly as we do for our renewables project. So as you see through these few examples, the downstream segment is adapting to in a pragmatic way to market conditions which are changing, evolving. And we execute a clear road map in order to deliver by 2030, an additional $1 billion of free cash flows. And now I would like to leave the floor to Stephane.

Thank you, Bernard. Good morning, everyone. So I will go first through our integrated LNG business, starting by our portfolio. As Patrick explained, our LNG portfolio is going to grow by 50% to reach 60 million tonnes in 2030, and this growth is going to come from our own production and the expected increase of our third-party offtake and spot activities. This growth will enable us to strengthen the 3 main competitive advantage we have, competitive advantage of our portfolio. First is size. With 60 million tonnes, we will keep our 10% worldwide market share. Second, the diversity of our supply with notably 40% in the U.S. will stay pretty stable, 20% from Africa, 20% of Middle East, both increasing and the rest coming from Asia and Europe. And the third main competitive advantage is the flexibility of our sales. If I look at it from a production side, we can decide to take our U.S. production in Europe or in Asia, as you can see on the dotted row, depending on what is the best market. If I look from the sales side, as Patrick mentioned, with the 8 million tons we signed in Asia recently, we are covering more than 70% of our sales with long-term oil index country, mostly in Asia. And we can decide to serve those contracts either by our own production or from the market. So if I try to summarize our LNG portfolio, what we have achieved is actually transforming Henry Hub in Brent, while we are keeping the arbitrage opportunity between TTF, the European index and the GKM, the Asian index. If I move now to the U.S. as the U.S. is going to be our largest supply region. We are going to grow in the U.S. our production by 7 million -- more than 7 million tonnes, essentially from 2 competitive projects, Costa Azul on one side and Rio Grande on the other side. Why I say they are competitive? Costa Azul because it's located on the Pacific Coast, so well located to supply Asia and Rio Grande because the liquidation fee is very competitive. At the same time, we know that our U.S. production and U.S. supply, sorry. And by the way, as well our CCGT production exposes to Henry Hub price, as you can see on the right chart for nearly 3 Bcf per day of gas. Hopefully, we have worked on that to reduce the short exposure, and we've done that in 2 ways. The first one was when we sell gas in Asia, when we sell LNG in Asia to blend the index on which we sell by coupling Brent and Henry Hub, reducing our Henry Hub exposure. That's one. And second, by integration with our Upstream portfolio. And you've seen this morning that we have had actually another acquisition in Anadarko Basin from Continental Resources. So with all that, actually, we are able to lower this Henry exposure from 3 Bcf to 1 Bcf before this morning and actually even a bit less than 1 Bcf, and we are going on to try to continue to manage that exposure. I move now to the prediction in terms of cash flow. And you can see the increase on the left side of our sales on one side, the blue bar and of our cash flow from '24 to 2030. Actually, it could have been '25 because '25 is going to be quite close to '24 -- as Patrick mentioned, we were hoping for a more volatile year but it has not been the case. So if I look at that growth, we have 70% increase of the cash flow, which is above the 50% increase of volume because it's going to come from projects that are more competitive. And actually, we have made the distinction between what is coming from Upstream, the growth of our production and what is coming from our enhanced portfolio. And as you can see, the large part of the growth is going to come from our top-tier LNG upstream projects, which are already under construction and should deliver production by '28, '29 and '30. And a smaller part from an enhanced portfolio. And as I explained, enhanced portfolio, by that, I mean better supply coming from the U.S. and more flexible sales in Asia that we have been able to sign in the last 2 years. That's for Integrated LNG. I will move now to Integrated Power, starting by the context and coming back to the slide that Patrick has shown with 2 main ideas, 2 main trends in the power market. What do we see? First, growth. 3% growth per year in the last 10 years and a trend that will continue with strong driver for that data center, digitalization, decarbonization of industry and EV rollout and in our market, heat pumps or air conditioning. What is interesting is that the market we address, U.S., Europe, Brazil, India and a few other represent 1/3 of the worldwide demand, and they are going to grow as well by more than by 2% as we see data center pushing demand, notably in the state starting in Europe and as well EV penetration. So on one side, growth. The second main theme is volatility. Volatility is increasing in all those markets and with volatility, the price of flexible assets. Why volatility is increasing? Because renewables are developing fast. And as we all know, they are intermittent. Second, because in many markets, we decommission flexible assets, notably coal as it is the case in the U.S. and in Europe. So we are more depending on the weather. We are more depending on, I would say, heat or cold wave event. And just to give you one figure, 7 days out of 10 now in Europe, you've got the price difference between the lower price in the day and the higher price of the day, which is above EUR 50 per megawatt hour. That was 1 day out of 10 only 5 years ago, just to give you an idea of how volatility has progressed. And that's exactly what we want to address with our strategy to focus on key deregulated markets where we can deploy our integrated model. There are 3 countries we have chosen to do that, 2 main zones, U.S. on one side, Europe and Brazil, and they should represent 70% of our production. So why is the U.S. And actually, it's not the U.S., it's ERCOT, PGM and CAISO because there are 3 markets fully deregulated, where demand is growing fast, more than 6% in Texas and that's going -- that's continue, where you have a strong demand for corporate PPA and where we can deploy our full model with a strong base of assets, renewable on the other side. And by the way, we don't have any problem to continue to develop that pipe at least until '29. And where we have as well CCGT assets, notably in Texas and peaker in California and where we have battery in operation under construction. So that's for the U.S. Then Europe, where here you have strong support through the CO2 price for flexible assets and where we have already a strong base of flexible assets that we want to continue to develop and where we have as well a nice renewable pipe, notably in France, in Spain, in U.K. and in Germany with the acquisition we made last year. On Europe, it's clear that we -- there are markets on which we want to focus, notably Germany and U.K. because there are countries where power prices are very high and the demand for flexibility is important as well. Short comment on Brazil, low-cost renewable, the best wind and the best hydro in the world. We are #1, thanks to our partnership in Casa dos Ventos, and we are convinced that we can grow there a very profitable business. So that's the main focus, 70%. And then we have, I would say, 2 other zone, oil and gas countries where the idea is through our renewable activity to support our oil and gas production to support E&P in their discussion with those countries or to help them -- so like, for example, Qatar, Iraq, Libya or to help them to decarbonize their consumption like in Argentina. And then there are a few countries where because of the specificity of the market, we can reach our target of 12% but that's not countries where we are going to deploy our integrated model and I can state India or South Africa. We want to divest all the other country, and we want to do that by monetizing our pipe in the most efficient way in the coming quarter. I finish by the cash flow. So as you can see, we are generating $2.5 billion in '24, should be pretty much above $2.5 billion should be pretty much the same in '24, '25. And we plan to grow that one point, we are asking -- you are asking for more detail. So we have split that cash flow between 2 different activity. One is production. That's really what is coming from the sale of our Electron in renewable and CCGT. That's one aspect. And the second aspect is what we call sales, which include trading and our retail activity in Europe. And we will publish that breakdown from now in the next quarters. As you can see, we are generating the 2.5, roughly 50-50. And those cash flows are going to grow for production with the volume. So we plan roughly to double that and at a slower pace for trading and retail. With all that, we should be above $3.5 billion, $4 billion in '28. And as Patrick mentioned, given the level of CapEx, that activity will start to contribute to the dividend in '28, and we should reach up to $4.5 billion by 2030. At that time, we will have a return on capital of 12%, which is equivalent to the return on capital of upstream oil and gas in a $60 environment. Obviously, you don't have the upside to oil. But at the same time, you have the advantage that, that return on capital is completely immune to the oil cycle contributing to the company resiliency. And you could even state that there is some potential upside as it will be a bit sensitive to Power price. And with that, I finish on Integrated Power and hand over to Patrick.

Thank you, Stephane. First, by the way, I think it's an important message, this one part of the differentiated strategy on electricity is clearly bringing us more resiliency out of the oil and gas cycles. I think -- and we didn't claim that before because we wanted to demonstrate that the model is successful, that we can continue to deliver. The more we progress in that business, the more we are, I would say, confident that we reach this level of free cash soon and of return on capital employed. So we can claim it. And by the way, again, I was looking to the return on capital employed of the major companies end of the third quarter. We were #1 with more than 12% and some of our peers were lower than that. So I think we are -- this resiliency has to be -- is an advantage for the future of this company. And as Stephane showed you, we begin to give you more insights on the model by giving you from now the split, how do we manage to make this cash flow and these returns because I know people are asking questions to themselves, so we'll split between production and sales step after step more -- because we are more confident on this capacity to deliver. So I want to summarize the investment case of TotalEnergies as a conclusion. First, again, more energy, less emissions, delivering superior free cash flow, and we have increasing shareholder returns. That's the fundamental message. The low -- less emissions was described by Nicolas but I want to insist that in fact, we are not -- we are managing to -- with this strategy, in particular, to lower the carbon intensity of our sales. We will reach minus 25% by 2030, probably more, in fact, with the ambition on electricity. Even if seen in the presentation of Stephane, there is more gas to power flexible assets but it's a reality. And by the way, I'm more comfortable being an oil and gas company to be more integration between gas and electricity in the execution of our strategy. And this additional free cash of $10 billion. At the same time, what do we do with it? Again, and I'm coming back to the decision of the Board. We -- I'm repeating that we are using a strong word sacrosanct dividend. It's guaranteed. It has been the we demonstrated for 40 years. And it will grow. It will grow, of course, because we have growing cash flows. The payout above 40%, I would say, is bottom. It's full cycle. That it's a floor. And that means that we will apply it at $50 per barrel. So when I will have a question at $50 per barrel with this floor, buyback will continue $1 billion, $1.5 billion depends on the environment. The other message is that it's not a target 40%. In fact, when I'm looking to the guidance we gave you at $70 per barrel and what we will apply in the fourth quarter, $1.5 billion of buyback, applying that through '26, the payout will be more in the range of 45% to 50%, so reaching 50%. So that's again, it's not a floor. It's a protection, this 40% for cycle for our shareholders. By the way, the dividend, when you calculate it in U.S. dollars, it's more than what we mentioned that 25% will be 11% increase. But at the same we need to maintain and preserve the balance sheet. This is the second message that we -- and we received the message from market. We took it for ourselves. So we have this new guidance for '26 in terms of buyback. At $80, we maintain the $2 billion per quarter. We an environment at $60, $70 and an exchange rate of dollar per euro, we'll move -- we'll give a range of $0.75 billion to $1.5 billion per quarter. Just a comment for you, $0.1 per euro cost us $800 million. We expressed the dividend in euro when we move from $1.1, which was the case last year to $1.2 where we are today. the allocation to the dividend in dollar is an additional $800 million. And I commented already the $50 per barrel case. Of course, we gave a guidance only for '26 because with the growing cash flow, we've seen some figure for '27. We will rescale the buyback levels according to the delivery of additional cash flow. It will depend, of course, on the energy price environment. So I will not -- but I don't want to -- we didn't want to give -- it's not a guidance for 5 years, will be very strange from us. It's for '26, and then we will adapt this guidance to price environment and again, to the cash flow growth that we will deliver. This cash flow growth is coming there, by the way, just on the next slide, this is an important one. We made it on '26, 2030, so 5 years cumulative cash flow from operations. The first column is at $50. At $50, by the way, we would apply more discipline capital discipline. So you have a little less CapEx than at $70. I gave you the range before. At $70, this $80 billion of generation of free cash flow. You can see that there is quite a lot of free cash available above the capital investment and dividend of 2025 dividend over 5 years. So there will be space to increase the dividend to make net debt reduction and to increase -- to come back to higher share buybacks. You have even the figure of $80 per barrel, it's an additional $15 billion. You have also at $50 per barrel, you can see that, in fact, our breakeven is clearly -- post dividend is clearly lower than $50 because we have some cash available but if we are maintaining the 2025 dividend equal. So you have also on this slide, the sensitivities we do not change compared to previous years, $2.8 billion of $10 per barrel Brent. By the way, for those who were asking why do we have a spread of $3 billion potentially between the $70 case and the $60 case on the buyback. The answer is just this one. At $70 $10 per barrel, we have a difference of almost $3 billion that's coming from there. So if I summarize the cash allocation, I would say, first, the dividend, again, the first priority, sustainable, secured through cycles, and I can only insist -- it will be future growth will be fueled by share buybacks and underlying cash flow growth. And the Board will take decision, of course, in February '26, we'll see where the price environment will be, but it will be supported, obviously, by the buyback performed in '25. The CapEx, we gave you new guidance, $14 billion, $17 billion full cycle, $16 billion next year. The balance sheet, maintaining gearing under 20%. We expect with Jean-Pierre to have by the end of the year to be next to 15%. So that's as planned as it was normalized gearing by end of first half. And surplus cash flows, we gave you the new guidance for the buyback, the way we will execute buyback in 2026. So -- but I would say this scheme is updated now. And with, again, strong commitment that the cash payout will be above at least 40% full cycle. The last news, which is important for us, of course, is which has been confirmed by the Board last week. So we initiate officially the process to the SEC. In fact, we make the notification is to convert these ADRs into ordinary shares on the New York Stock Exchange. There are different reasons to do that. First, we can do it in 2021. It was not possible 40 years ago. We introduced the ADRs in 1991. You could ask ourselves why the European companies did not do that by that time. In fact, because by that time, the accounting system was not the same. There was differences. We were not in IFRS, we not recognized. All that has been done. And in 2021, you have a lot, I would say, of digital capacity to move shares from the Paris to New York during the night, et cetera. It's blockchain, it's not papers, all that. So there are a lot of evolution. We have done quite -- teams have worked quite, I would say, efficiently in less than a year with different players, Euroclear in Europe and DTCC in the U.S., NYSE in the U.S. and Euronext in Europe to make it possible. Probably the company is paving the way by doing this transformation of ADRs into shares. Why do we do it? Because we observe an evolution of our shareholder base. You can see that this quarter, by the way, more than 50% of our institutional shareholders are on this side of the Atlantic. In the meantime, we have -- in the last 10 years, we've increased quite a lot, again, the company employees, 9% and the individual shareholders as well have increased their share from 10% to 16%. So we have 25%, I would say, of individuals, which, of course, are generally quite stable. So we like them like all corporations but we have also to adapt to institutional shareholders, and you have the split there. The second idea is that ADRs and just a figure, we dig into the cost of ADRs today for ADRs holders was around $12 million per year. The cost of holding the same shares will be $2 million to $3 million per year for the same holders. So we eliminate that cost, which was limiting some interest for the ADRs. We heard that without any additional obligation for us because, in fact, in the U.S. system, securities are covering ADRs as well as ordinary shares. So the obligations and we have had many questions about it, all the obligations we had under the ADR schemes are the same under as ordinary shares. So for us, it's reinforcing attractiveness, and we hope to attract additional AUM, I would say, to the ordinary shares. But it will be only -- so it's not a double listing and all that, forget. It's one single class of TotalEnergies shares. Just extended trading hours from Paris to 9:00 a.m. to New York 10:00 p.m. from a European point of view, with shares transferable from one market to the other market. And there will be absolutely no impact for all ordinary shares listed on Euronext, which will remain the introduction market. So I think it's a move, which demonstrates our appetite to continue to attract shareholders where the market seems to be more inclined to oil and gas, which is beside of the Atlantic but I hope that we continue to work, of course, hard to convince European shareholders to maintain trust in the company. And that's the last slide to conclude. I think through this presentation, I speak about consistency, I speak about resiliency. I would say we see our capacity of adaptation. The example which was given to you by Bernard about this idea that we make co-processing instead of new greenfield or brownfield biorefineries is a good example. The other example he mentioned to adapt our EV deployment to the reality of the market. This is what I think is important for us. Part of the streamlining CapEx is also just to observe at which pace this energy transition is taking place and to cope with, I would say, the -- I mentioned that we see more -- the affordability part of the equation was more important than just the sustainability part for many customers. And so we need also to adapt this transition strategy to the reality of the market. It's also true, by the way, on integrated power, the adaptation, which was described by Stephane, is just the reality is that investing only in renewables, more intermittent if we don't have in our portfolio all the flexible assets to capture this volatility will make little sense, in fact. So that's also what we are willing to do by adapting our transition strategy to the reality of the demand and to what the customers want in order to continue to provide reliable, affordable and sustainable energy. So this slide summarized, I would say, the investment case. I will not be longer than that but we'll be happy to answer to all your questions. Thank you.

So we are moving now to the Q&A. So raise the end. So we start maybe with Duke, if you have a question, please. We have mics coming in.

It's Doug Leggate from Wolfe. Patrick, you've mentioned a couple of times that the market appeared to be sending a message with the share price given what happened to the balance sheet. So my question is, -- to get to the 15% gearing level, is that then a level you're comfortable with? Or if the oil price did end up being higher, what gets the first dollar, the balance sheet or the buyback? That's my first question. And my follow-up very quickly, could you address incremental asset sales that are embedded in your production targets, specifically, I think there was some speculation recently about the North Sea potentially exiting there.

Just to be clear, we didn't set 15% gearing, but lower than 20%. So we are comfortable we're lower than 20%. So there's no impact if we are at 15%, 16%, 17% on the scheme I described to you, okay? We as the Board consider that less than 20%. Again, I think we'll -- according to Jean-Pierre and his team, we should land around 15%, 16% by the end of the year. But if we are comfortable, we look at it. And so if we were reaching more than 20%, which we are with the guidance we gave you, we don't anticipate that to be clear. We have some margin, and this is the point. Of course, we have to execute the CapEx program as it is, the $16 billion, all that is consistent. And so I'm -- but again, balance sheet is a priority. This is the message I receive. So we test the market. We have a clear answer. So the balance sheet is a priority but we are comfortable with that level, which will position us in a competitive way compared to our peers. Divestiture, what is planned? First, we need to execute divestiture of this year, and then we'll continue to do it. Again, in the plan, acquisitions are balanced by divestment, and we continue to rotate the portfolio. So in this year, most of the divestments will come, by the way, by Q4, but the proceeds of the divestments, we have -- as you noticed during the year, we have decided and it's part of streamlining the CapEx. But when we had participation or nonoperating interest in projects like Bonga or Gato do Mato, where -- which was not fitting, in fact, with less than $20 per barrel. We decided rather than continuing to contribute with 10%, 15% to just divest the asset, not to be a problem for the operator. So that's 2 divestments well done, and we'll have other examples of that. We have just -- we will just made another one in Norway, a small one where again, it's very mature. It's not fitting with our best allocation criteria CapEx allocation criteria. So we decided to divest when we did not fit because again, we have a large portfolio. So we don't need to -- it's not a question of marginal bars. We prefer to stick within the guidance we gave, and we consider it the best way to have a reliance portfolio in the future for the coming years. We have -- I mean -- and of course, part of the divestment is also the recycling of capital on the renewable side, which is important. This morning, we have announced we have announced that we have in the U.S. made with KKR. It represents almost more than $1 billion globally, $1.2 billion, if I remember well. So it's quite big. It's a way to recycle the capital and it's part of the capital guidance and the business. So that will continue because, in fact, in renewables, as we have reached more or less, we will continue to divest 2 gigawatts per year -- for the time being, these markets, I know there are some doubts but we are quite successful with the assumptions that we can farm down 50% with good returns. We will have done it in the U.S., in Greece and in France in 2025. And for '26, we have the same type of program to continue it. So that's what is embedded in the plan. On the Upstream part, we will see when we -- you will see what we'll do when we will announce it. I don't want to give more details today.

Lydia?

Thanks for the presentation.

Sorry, Lydia, just to continue and Dough to be clear, the divestments that we plan are in the growth figure behind the numbers. Just to be clear.

It's Lydia from Barclays. And just to continue on the growth theme. If I go back to where you started the presentation, it was really that you can do the same or more with less. So can we just go through a little bit more detail as to how? Is it the technology is enabling more cost savings? Is it just that there were things you went, this isn't going to add a return? I just want to understand a little bit more how. And then the other bit was, I think, fascinating when you showed more of the geographic diversification of the upstream business because that is different to where the peer group is. In a world where U.S. shale oil probably isn't growing as much, do you think that's actually much more important than where it might have been for the last decade?

Okay. First point, I think there are 2 sources of this $1 billion. One is clearly on the low carbon business. You've seen it. It was 4 to 5. We said 4, 3 to 4. So why? Because first, 2 ideas. Again, co-processing, there is less CapEx on biofuels than in the previous plan, just because we have a technology way to do it. So let's do it. Let's not be stable. EV, again, it was $200 million per year. I think today, it's more $100 million, $120 million. So because we adapt the pace to the customer demand. So there are a few ideas there. And on Stephane side, it's just that now we know what we want to do in which geographies to be more focused. And in order to -- we will be able to deliver the same, I would say, in terms of cash and with -- in terms of growth and cash rather than just continuing to. That's an adaptation. We progress on the understanding and we streamline, we focus the CapEx. So that's $500 million, I would say there. The other part is coming from the oil and gas, again, decision to divest some marginal nonoperated interest where there was some CapEx in the plan where we consider it's better to focus on the core assets without impairing, by the way, fundamentally the trajectory. That's the other part, I would say. So it's -- the $1 billion is coming from these 2 parts. It's also, I would say, some -- yes, maybe a little more efficient. But there is no -- I mean, it's not a matter of technology there. I would say it's more a question of choice of portfolio of assets, maybe unless I'm wrong and...

No, no, you're right.

Okay. No, no but you can complement because I don't know Everything about it. You are right. But the technology is more on the OpEx, I would say, where we expect. And I mean, we have done a strong push. We are investing, by the way, quite heavily in these data platforms within Nation and Emerson, with Cognite in Upstream. So I think it's time to have really -- to organize the company. Today, it was until now, it was a bits and pieces, I would say, some pilots, it's time to move quicker to react to invest in programs to have the data platforms and to be able to deploy tomorrow AI in a more smarter way, et cetera. So this is a big effort, which is investment, but also it will contribute to the efficiency on the OpEx side, I would say, in the future. Your other -- I think the second question was about diversification. I think it's -- honestly, it's for me something, which is important. And I consider that in that world, the world is completely changing. It's a world where fundamentally, politics are more important than economy. It's for a global company like us, a huge change. You need to see that. And I think we are leaving the era from the -- after the second world war. It's, I would say, the idea that the global world is good. No, it's -- and we want it or not, it's a reality. It's a reality not only here in the U.S., but it's a reality in many areas of the region. So of course, that means from this perspective, having some diversification and optionality, I would say, diversification optionality is very important in the portfolio. And people could say it's more complex. Yes. It obliges us to be even more local, I think, to be next to local stakeholders, which is, I think, a good strength of this company. The way we are deploying our people in the company in different countries, yes, we have people there in order to be very local. And I can tell you what we have just achieved in Iraq is quite impressive in less than 3 years. We have been able not only to confirm the contract but to sign all these EPCs. And we've -- it's quite -- it was quite a challenge. It's possible because we have a capacity to be very close. In fact, all the stakeholders, our teams are there. And that's, I think, a strength in this world, which is more spread. Okay. That does not mean that I don't want to invest in the U.S. It's part clearly, when we said that we have this exposure to [indiscernible], that means investing more in shale gas here. And we will study -- we have made already 3 JVs, nonoperated JVs. We'll see if we could accelerate on that in the coming months and coming months. So that's, I would say. But my view is that it's becoming an interesting asset of the company, this diversification and having optionalities in different countries.

Okay. So we go to Chris.

Chris Kuplent from Bank of America. Patrick, I'm going to try and be lazy and ask you to do my job, which is upfront. If you think back last year, 12 months, a lot of things have happened. You just mentioned comments on global politics. What else is standing out to you where we'll meet again today, 12 months later, where you think the most significant changes have occurred in what you're presenting? And as an observation, this is meant as a compliment that I think most of what you've presented today is very similar to what we heard 12 months ago. But maybe you can think about whether it's project news, whether it's politics or whether it's commodities. And while you're thinking, maybe from my end, I asked you last year, what do you feel more bullish about? $80 Brent or $8 TTF. And you said $80 do you still answer $80 Brent?

No. So you know I'm already wrong on commodities. No, I think part of the change clearly has been and you -- I've seen some comments after my comments on the third quarter results that people were considering that market was considering I was more bullish but I'm just observing what happens. Honestly, there have been a big push. And I would not have bet 1 year ago that the OPEC countries will have and win their voluntary cuts because for me, we are in a world that where we need more $70, $80 per barrel to balance their budget. They are doing it for different reasons, politics, by the way, clearly, politics are interfering today in our world of commodities. It's a reality. Commodities in both sides. On one side, you have clearly the U.S. President wants the oil price to be diminished to have a good gasoline price for the midterm elections. On the other side, you have the Russian war, which is, of course, fueling the other trend. It's very difficult for us to assess it. And that's why, by the way, for trading business is more complex today because you have some elements, which are not just market led by supply and demand, and I would say, what you could expect to rational behaviors. You have other elements in the world which is more political one. So that has changed. That has also changed. It is the reason why we take actions because I want to be sure by anticipation. I'm not sure we'll see the price going down but I want to take actions before. It's not so easy in an oil and gas company when we are in a $70, $80 a barrel environment to say to our colleagues, okay, we need to be focused on that but it's also part of what the leadership of the company should do. And again, I'm not betting on that. I just say we observe and I observe that this tariff war has an impact on the, I would say, macro environment, the demand you see -- look, I was not anticipating 1 year ago that the dollar could be weakened. It's weakening. And maybe it's not the end of the weakening. It has an impact on our balance of dollars and euro-dollars. I mentioned it. So I can -- maybe we'll be at 1.3 next year. And when we meet, I'm not impossible with the pressure on this part of it. So this is a world which has changed from this perspective, more short-termism and more politics. So that's what we need to take into account. Having said that, coming back to your first comment, the fundamental of the strategy should not change and cannot change. We have a very strong portfolio of projects, so we must find a way to execute them, coping with this uncertainty. And I think that's why we are consistent, and we want to inject today, I would say, some elements of being more resilient in case of commodities price. The markets are not. I must also contrast that I'm very -- my short term, I'm observing the cash flow, which we will generate in 2025 at $70. We are planning, '29 will be more around $27 billion. So I need to manage that. That means that also we have to fix some issues. And I know Vincent is there, he could speak about. We have 2 assets which are not delivering what we expect, Donges Arthur and Port Arthur. So he's working on it. He managed to fix what was happening in the cracker in Normandy is done. It's behind us but we suffered during the first half of the year. I think we are taking it. So we have also some work to be done in terms of our own efficiency. But I would say my comment.

If I may, just one quick one. How worried -- I know we're talking about 2030 today but how worried are you about the buildup of more LNG coming into the market from just adding up all the permits, the FIDs post 2030?

I am a little worried, but we -- to be honest, I'm observing that. I was quite happy, in fact, with the previous freeze in the U.S. today, it's a little accelerating too quickly. I'm a little surprised that all these projects will find markets, I mean, offtakers and financing. Maybe it's not fully done, to be clear. Let's see. Because I can tell you with Stephane, when we launched Rio Grande Train 1 to 3 to find -- of course, we were the marketers, so we know. But even to find the financing in the U.S. for a $10 billion project financing, we had to work hard. And so I'm waiting to see if all these projects, which are today authorized, they seems to find quite a good appetite of marketers, I mean, offtakers despite the risk that people take. There are probably some politics behind it. We see some Asian players clearly offtaking because it's part of the tariff bill. Let's see if they all find the financing for all these projects. That's the next step. So having said that, on our side, I mean, that's why we have decided to sanction Train 4, but we will not participate to Train 5.? Because again, the clear advantage, and it was mentioned, as we are aware, we made a deal 2 years ago with NextDecade's Rio Grande. We are also a shareholder of NextDecade. So it gave us an advantage of the liquidection fee. And for us, it's just fundamental. Sorry.

Jason Gabelman from TD Cowen. I wanted to go back first to the cost cuts, and it was an impressive jump in guidance. I think last year, you guided to $500 million cost cuts. This year, you're guiding to $500 million per year. So wondering, one, if there's any inorganic component of that or if it's all organic? And two, given you have highlighted several times that upstream costs are already below peers, should we assume most of the cost cuts are coming in other parts of the business? And I have a follow-up.

For me, last year, what we told you it was $500 million for E&P but there was also a program for Refining & Chemicals part, including, I would say, some energy savings. Can you remind the figures that we had? And so we extended it from '27 to 2030. So for me, it's not just extension of the OpEx efficiency program. Maybe you can comment, Nicolas and Vincent.

For Exploration & Production, we had $500 million over 3 years, which is what we have shown last year. So now we've extended that to 2030.

$1 billion.

So which gives more $1 billion.

$1 billion.

And then it comes on top of this, there is a Refining & Chemical program.

Okay. And then as Bernard told you, they are becoming to work -- he has worked on his side to support services in M&S, and we intend to extend that to different branches. So the $2.5 billion are calibrated, will be delivered year after year. The idea is around $500 million per year. It's mainly organic to come back to your question.

Great. And my follow-up just on Namibia, which I think last year, you had hoped to get started up by 2030. Now it seems like it's pushed out a little bit beyond 2030. Can you just talk about what's going on, in that project and what you need to see to get Venus over the finish line?

I would say it's possible by 2030. It depends when we'll be able to take the sanction. Namibia is a new country to oil and gas. So we are working with the Namibian authorities to progress. We have given them a development plan, which needs to be approved. We are, by the way, working with contracting industry, and we are beginning to resign some interesting offers, which confirm the budget around $10 billion to $11 billion for these projects, which is to deliver more or less -- we have a debate with on the -- just to clarify where we are. Because of the low permeability of the field and the necessity to reinject gas, it's limiting our capacity of plateau production to 150,000 barrels per day despite the fact that we have more or less the same reserves that in Suriname, 750 million barrels of oil. But at the same time, in fact, we need to extend if we -- this plateau could be much longer. So we have a discussion, but extending the license in order to have a good profitability for the project and to recoup at 150,000 barrels per day, we need a longer period, obviously, than in Suriname, we have 750 million barrels of oil, we are making a plateau of 220 million. So I mean, it's quite obvious. So it's just a matter of math. So this is a debate, let's say, discussion we have with the government. In fact, today, it's new authorities, new to oil and gas. So we need to give them time to understand what we are requesting in order to launch these projects. We are working. So I cannot be -- it's just the beginning of a discussion. The authorities would like that project to be on stream by 2029. So that means that we should be able to take the FID in the coming 6 months. We'll see if we can achieve it or not. It's very important that everybody, all parties will be comfortable and trust each other if we will launch such a project of $10 billion in a new country. So are we in the case of Suriname, where we managed to expedite very smoothly, thanks to very trusty and very counterpart in, I would say, in Staatsolie and all these guys. Or will it be longer like in Uganda? It took 5 years. I hope it will be more the Suriname case than the Uganda case. We'll see. It's part of our business. But again, clearly, there is -- we are able, TotalEnergies to launch the first deepwater projects in Namibia in good conditions if we get a common understanding of the conditions to reach it.

Michele?

So consider it's an upside for 2030, '29, 2030. It's not in these production lines.

Patrick, 2 questions, if I may. I wanted to start with the dividend, and congratulations on the best track record amongst European oils. Last year, I think you were indicating a 5% growth. This year, it feels like there's 2 competing forces. On one side, there's the huge confidence on growth, 4% per annum plus the buyback. On the other side, the 10% plus appreciation of the euro versus the dollar clearly has taken a toll. And I was just wondering how you think about those 2 competing forces in effectively setting the dividend per share growth for this year and in the coming years? And then secondly, I wanted to come back to the gas market. There as well, there's 2 competing forces. There's relatively low inventories going into this winter, but then we also have the start-up of incremental exports, at least from the U.S. starting this winter and then it compounds with Qatar from the second half of next year. I was wondering how you're thinking about the risk reward, maybe a bit more volatility than what we've seen in the past 6 months? And also when you think the oversupply in the gas market brings us to kind of below mid-cycle European gas prices? Is it still 2028 you're thinking about how the date has moved?

Okay. Many questions. First, honestly, the Board has worked hard during 2 days reviewing the strategy, managing to land on something which is a strong scheme, repeating on the gearing, on the buyback. So I'm afraid that -- honestly, on the dividend, we postponed the debate later. Having said that, it's clear that we have a differentiation compared to the others. By the way, most -- we made a lot of benchmarking. All our peers are at 4% growth per year. So I don't know if it's -- so if we make a difference, 5% is not bad. We'll have bought back 5%. So there is a debate about this euro-dollar, which honestly is 1% more or less is not -- that hasn't changed so much. So my view, we'll have the debate beginning of the year. I don't know if we'll be at $70 per barrel, if we are still there, I think [indiscernible] of 5% is probably the right one. But it depends where we'll be on the energy price. Sometimes short-termism also affects the boardrooms. So it's a matter. But I'm confident. And again, we are confident on delivering this cash flow growth. So this is a driver. So we have adapted the buyback. I'm not sure we should adapt everything. So we want to keep that differentiation, I think. We'll see. Again, I cannot commit for the full Board before February. But honestly, I think the debate on dollar-euro was more important on the buyback level. It was taking on board $1 billion extra rather than the dividend. So I don't see that debate on the same intensity, just to answer your question. On the gas, -- we can speak with Stephane. I would say '28, yes. I think '28, I don't change. I don't I don't move forward because these projects are -- I see some slippage there and there. And also, you have this decision of the European Commission. If it's confirmed that they want to ban the LNG from Russia from '27, that means 20 million tons, you have to find there. So it creates a tension, not optimizing all the flows like it is today. We'll see where this LNG will go. So that's -- I think it's an element of the of the puzzle. '26, honestly, I would be surprised to see -- there are not so much -- so many tons, and you have 30 million tons according to my records, which come in the market, not so big. It could be absorbed quite easily. So '26 with this tension, with again, all these news about Ukraine-Russia, which continue to disturb the market, maybe -- and the forward, say, 11, 12, we are there, I think we are confident. A little more volatility. My traders will love it, but I'm not fully sure to be honest, when I look to that. Now what -- by the way, a comment we should do, which is important and which explains as well what are the difficulty we face from LNG business. The arbitrage that we had, the U.S. LNG was very well located to make an arbitrage between Asia and Europe. In fact, today, most of the flow is coming to Europe. There is not much arbitrage possible between the Asian LNG. The JKM and TTF is also more closed, which, of course, impact. In fact, on the first order, when we'll see that we are analyzing the results of the LNG business, this arbitrage, which was open, today is completely closed because most of the flows are going to Europe. And that is a new thing, something we need to think about it. Will it remain or not? I think it's not clear, but this is important to understand when we analyze the results. So that's what I can comment to you.

You have a question?

[ Victor Swistzakk ] with [ Loso ] in Montreal, Canada. My question is on the buyback specifically. Since 2021, you've spent, if my numbers are correct, $33 billion in buybacks, including this year. I'm curious how you look at 3 things: a, why you're doing it; two, how do you assess its efficacy? In other words, how do you know that you -- the money you're spending is money well spent? And three, how does it fit within your countercyclical narrative that you apply to acquisitions?

Why? There was 2 fundamental reasons to make buybacks. First one was consider the share price is quite -- could be higher. So it's a right time. It's better to be -- to buy back shares when the share price is low than high. The second was an economic calculation, which is quite easy. We borrow bonds at 3.5%, and we serve a dividend yield of 6.5%. So from a pure economic point of view, company point of view, buy back shares, you can make the math. It's quite at $53 or even $60 per share or EUR 61 per share, it's attractive from a -- having said that, is it efficient? Not really because I didn't see the price -- I mean, the share price went up and down. So I'm not sure it's efficient from a pure -- no, but it's not efficient from a pure share price point of view, but from saving, I would say, from a dividend point of view, it's efficient. Because with this policy, we managed to increase the dividend by maintaining the, I would say, what's another objective. We managed to increase the dividend and the cash out from the dividend has been stable. So in fact, for you, as shareholders, it's efficient, I think, because you've seen an increase of the dividend without having a higher burden. We have the dollar euro already today, but let's put that aside. So is it fitting with the countercyclicality? Again, we were historically, it's a 2022, which was exceptional, where suddenly we've seen a drop of gearing ratio lower than 10%, which could give some margins. I think if you read what the -- and you probably read it, I'm sure the press release of the Board, he said we want to maintain some flexibility, agility and maintain some capacity, which means, yes, we could have the situation, and we have -- but we don't have so many -- our portfolio is good. So our countercyclicality acquisition, we don't have so many targets, to be honest. We have one, which is U.S. gas, shale gas because we need to manage this exposure to Henry Hub. So again, we'll -- that's part of the, I would say, of the equation. And that's the reason why also we have decided to adjust this buyback scheme to introduce a price element in the scheme like we propose in order to adapt and to keep some flexibility in the balance sheet. Yes. But I know it's a permanent question. But it's again, yes. Okay. I understand. The share could go down if there is a price going down and then you will have to buy less. Yes, I know, but it's -- you cannot do everything at the same time. And the priority today is the dividend, and we are strong on the dividend because when I discuss with our shareholders, they all phrase that. Second, we have a nice portfolio of projects, so let's make the CapEx, $16 billion. We are efficient. And then between the balance sheet and the buyback, we'll -- the balance sheet, we want to keep balance sheet healthy.

Irene, please?

Irene Himona, Bernstein. When I compare your Slide 11 on CapEx with the equivalent slide last year, it's clear that the whole of the CapEx reduction, the $1 billion is low carbon and most of that is Integrated Power. So I had a series of questions on Integrated Power, if I may. First of all, can your existing portfolio or pipeline actually deliver the targets without any additions? And what happens to those targets if you're not able to find and add CCGTs? That's the first question. The second question, in oil and gas, obviously, we talk of Brent and TTF. And as we saw today, that drives CapEx and distributions. What power price should we be thinking about across your portfolio, which will be behind the 10% returns improving towards 12% over time once we add trading, et cetera? And then finally, can you clarify whether your Indian interests are included or excluded from the power targets?

Okay. I will begin, Stephane will complement it. No, your assumption that it's not only low carbon, it's $500 million. Last year, the [indiscernible] integrated was $4 billion, we say $3 billion to $4 billion. So $3.5 billion makes $500 million. So you don't have the full $1 billion. In this guidance for CapEx, it's net CapEx, let's be clear. We have organic CapEx, but we still have M&A within the portfolio, within this guidance for Integrated Power. So we have the room, at least in CapEx to make the acquisition we need to do in order to have more flexible assets. So it's embedded. And I would say you have more or less an average of $1 billion per year, I would say for -- it will not make $1 billion per year because it's not linear. So we'll see the way the opportunities we might have. Last year, we -- this year, we acquired the West Burton, last year in the U.K., we continue to study different projects in Germany, obviously, and in other countries. In the U.S. today, it's quiet because CCGTs are expensive. So we were countercyclical. So we are quiet on this side, or this side of the Atlantic, we'll see. Let's be a little patient. So you have $5 billion embedded in this guidance for CCGTs. I mean I think it's -- there are enough opportunities to be able to execute that, I think. So just to be clear. But it's important. Of course, it's part of the strategy. And I think Stephane has been quite explicit. We need to do that. On the other side, on the renewable part, I consider we have almost all what we need to have. We made an acquisition in Germany this year. So it's not a priority, to be clear. We might look to reinforce our trading house or trading capacities, that's possible. That might be a Renewables, we might be opportunistic more in terms of pipelines, but not big large acquisition. I'm not -- today, as soon as we see. We see there are good opportunities. The U.S. might be a good opportunity area, by the way, because today, we see the valuation of this type of assets diminishing in the U.S. on the pressure of the administration. So just -- so what price drive 10% to 12%. That's for Stephane, this one.

Actually, the power price assumption is to stay at the current market level. So the improvement of the ROACE from 10% to 12% is not linked to any improvement of the current market level. So we -- if I take European level, you are at, let's say, EUR 80 per megawatt hour in Germany as a reference. And then you need to go market by market, but Texas is around $50 per megawatt hour. The improvement of ROACE will come from the growth of the portfolio, as I've shown. And if you look at 2 metrics, one, which is net result per terawatt hour, as the price are not moving, actually, it's slightly improving, but not that much. But you have the capital employed per terawatt hour, which is improving along the next 5 years because we are growing, we are amortizing assets. There are pipes that we bought that are coming on stream and that will clearly help to decrease the capital employed per terawatt hour. So that's where it's going to come from. And as well, we are clearly benefiting from higher return on capital of the flexible assets, which are clearly contributing.

Yes. In fact, we have quite a number among the capital employed, there are some unproductive capital employed today in the denominator of Integrated Power, which will be activated with the development of pipeline, just to clarify. So we are at 10% with part of some burden in the capital employed, which will streamline. India. India, yes, it is not growing, even diminishing. In fact, we have this -- our position in India. We have this famous -- we have 2 parts. We have the shareholding of Adani Green. We'll see. It might evolve. We have -- we were at 20% or 19%. Initially, it was -- in our plan, it's more keeping 10% to 15%. But again, it's not primarily that. And then we have the famous JVs we have together. We don't intend -- today, we are fine. We have no growth. Adani Green could grow, but we have no growth. So India, yes, we believe in that market for the reason which was mentioned by Stephane, which is the low...

Yes, low-cost renewable and high growth. Why it is not an integrated market just because the flexible assets are coming from coal and we don't do coal. So that's as simple as that. So we can focus on renewable because it's, as I said, low cost, high growth. But at the same time, we do it through AGEL, which is a self-financed company and today is generating enough cash flow to free this growth.

Just to clarify my comment, we invested $2 billion in Adani Green. Today, it's worth $8 billion almost, $6 billion to $8 billion. So if I was able to sell 1/4 of my shares to recoup my $2 billion and to be neutral, I would be very happy. So we are looking to opportunities. But again, it's not -- to be clear, Adani Green is a very good company, growing. So it's not -- it's just that we are looking to what are the financial interest of TotalEnergies, and we support Adani Green development.

Alastair Syme at Citi. One more question on Integrated Power. Can you just quantify the strategic review in terms of percentage of capital employed or some sort of context for how big it is that you're trying to scale down? And secondly, Canadian LNG came up a couple of times. What are you trying to achieve as you look to build out that business? And do you think you need to back integrate into supply like you're trying to do in the U.S.?

I'll let Stephane answering the first one. On the second one, no, we don't need the same. I mean our view on the AECO index is that it's low for long, very long. So you don't need necessarily the same integration. We don't see -- and the capacity of export from Canada is not at all the same than what is happening on the Gulf Coast in the U.S. So the tension we could see on [ Via ] because of all the transmission, et cetera, on the system in the U.S., we don't see at all the same -- we don't perceive the same tension in Canada. So in Canada, it's just an idea. You look to the map, you see that the Pacific is -- the trip from the Pacific is shorter from Canada to Japan, Korea, other customers. You don't have to go through the Panama channel, which is becoming an issue you have today compared to where we were. So it's the idea, okay, we have -- we are strong on the Gulf Coast. If we want to continue to grow in North America, maybe it could be good to see. If we have opportunities, we have taken -- it's an option today. We invest -- we have taken some percentage in Western LNG. I don't know if this project will come, will go to end. We'll see. It's optionalities, which from a pure geography point of view. And again, we have a very cheap source of gas in Canada. But we studied if Canada could be an area of shale gas in Canada to invest, including to, I would say, hedge our position on the Gulf Coast, it's not a good edge because there is no link between both. AECO could remain low, while [indiscernible] could go up. So we don't see that interest. So we still look at it, different opportunities. We concluded it was not the right way to move forward, and we have 2 different topics.

Sorry, I will take 1 question online. Just...

Maybe Stephane should answer the first question.

Yes. On the first question, we are talking less than 10% of our completely employed and perhaps closer to 5%. But that's not really the point. The point is that it's, first, an interesting portfolio that we can value because there are a lot of projects that are under development and which does not translate in capital employed, but which translates in value. That's one. And second, we want to do that because as in the other branch of the company, we want to focus so that we can lower our costs. And today, we need to decrease the number of countries where we are, which will be part as well of why we are doing that.

Okay. So we take 1 question online, Matt Lofting from JPMorgan.

hope you can hear me okay. Two questions, please. First, I wanted to ask you about the $10 billion underlying free cash flow growth target 2030 on Slide 15. I think the headline is very consistent with what TotalEnergies showed 12 months ago. Clearly, though, you're now framing lower costs, more efficiency. So I wondered if you could summarize the main areas where the pathway or the route to that $10 billion growth has perhaps changed from what was presented in the past and in particular, any areas where divisional CFFO that you're assuming is perhaps now more conservative than in the past? And then secondly, on the downstream business, how satisfied is the company with underlying performance? I think you mentioned earlier a lower CFFO contribution to this year's expectations. There was perhaps a similar dynamic in 2024 outside of Normandy, what areas of the portfolio need to be further addressed?

Okay. On the first time, in fact, we are -- to be clear, there is no growth of trading in this plan. It was the case last year. There was some assumption, but -- so we are conservative on the trading assumptions. We consider we keep it stable through the cycle, through the years. We are more optimistic about the volume, et cetera. But so we'll -- just to be clear, so that has eliminated part of the CFFO, which has been replaced by less CapEx. So I mean just -- otherwise, for the rest, I would say, Integrated Power is maybe a little lower than planned in terms of CFFO as well. It's still, to be clear, net cash positive by '28, but the target in 2030 is lower than that it was, just to be completely transparent with you. That the 2 areas, but also linked to the fact that we streamlined the CapEx. All that is quite consistent, but we reach our targets. In terms of production, the value will be different. On the downstream, I mentioned 2 other assets where -- but maybe Vincent can comment. 2 other assets of today where we have a concern. One is Port Arthur in the U.S., where clearly we are not at all at the level we are expecting. The cracker, petrochemicals, the cracker is fine, not the polymer side, but the cracker is okay, but the refining has difficulties. And the other one is Donges, where we have invested. We are waiting to start the investment next year or this year. Maybe Vincent, you can comment on these 2 assets. What are your plans to have a better efficiency on both of them?

Yes. So first on Port Arthur, we had issues with a specific equipment, which we call the reformer producing gasoline. We are currently in the big turnaround of the refinery. So we are fixing the technical issues. So it should start in 2 weeks' time, and we should be in better shape in Port Arthur, I hope. In Donges, before the end of the year, we will start this big project in order to get gasoline which less sulfur, which is an issue in Donges is that we produce gasoline, which is not anymore on spec for the European market. So we have to export with a big [ premium ]. So the new unit will produce gasoline with less sulfur that we will be able to valorize. And here again about the reliability of the plants, we have an action plan and the team today is delivering on these items where we had reliability issues. That's the 2 main sites where we had issues. If you look at the refineries in North of Europe, Antwerp, Germany, Netherlands, they are, as a matter of fact, producing very well. And in September, they have captured the good margins.

I must also say that something in Europe, which happened, which is a reality in the figures. We had suffered a huge inflation in Europe in '22, '23, which was translating in wages. We like it or not, but that's the reality of what happened in our European companies. And in fact, when I look to the figures of, I would say, the salary mass, you have almost an increase of 15% in the next 3, 4 years, which we have to absorb. And it's also part of why the breakeven of the refining system has almost increased by $10 per ton. There is another element in refining in Europe, which is the CO2. We should never forget that today, we pay and we -- in '26, we will face less free quota allocation for refineries in Europe. That's the reality of what happens. So when you combine this increase of inflation on wages plus the CO2 impact, that's why I'm trying to advocate a European level, maybe we should make a pause on the CO2 price because we are completely disconnect from the rest of the world. But we have some -- at the end, we have increased the breakeven of almost $10 per ton. And I mean, in the plan, what we were thinking of $25 a ton moved to $35 and maybe $45. So we have really a question of managing the cost of these refineries, which -- and finding ways to continuously be more productive is not so obvious. So I mean it's just the reality of the figures at the end, we have this -- and I know that one of my colleague is very strong, and I'm happy that the U.S. CEO is supporting the poor European CEOs because maybe they have more impact outside that internal CEOs when you go to Brussels. It's good to see that, yes, there is a question of competitiveness in Europe for heavy industries and for industries. It's true for chemicals, it's true for refining. And I'm not sure the European leadership is taking that into consideration. But at the end, we'll have to take actions, which might be difficult. Shutting down a cracker in Antwerp is part of the answer, and we'll see if we need to do more in order to cope with this situation. That's a question of European competitiveness for heavy industries.

Paul Cheng, Scotiabank. Patrick, 2 questions. First, you're saying that in your presentation and also in your prepared remarks, you are actively below the upstream portfolio because you want to grow beyond 2030. So if we look at your upstream spending, is it -- why is it the right number? Should it be higher or that is being constrained either by the desire to keep the balance sheet to be better or is by the organizational capability limit or by industry capability limit or by just simply the opportunity set. So trying to understand how you're coming up, this is the right number and not somewhat higher. The second question is that you have said, I mean, the world become even more political and that it impacts your business in a big way. So if we're looking -- and you also say that the volatility is lower going forward. With that, how that impact the way how you manage your trading operation? You say you expect the trading result will be relatively flat over the next several years. But based on what you said, should it be actually be lower in your trading result going forward?

No, I didn't say there will be a concern. I said the assumption is that we didn't take any benefit from growth. I mean they are working hard to make it better, and they have increased. And again, we don't see -- should it be diminished? I'm not yet there. I mean, even if in the year -- in fact, in what we plan, under control of Stephane. But for me, what we expect from the gas and LNG trading is more or less in '25, same result than '24. We were hoping to have a better result because if you remember, the last quarter of '24 was quite good. So we are hoping to have this trend, and we were planning on the trend of the last quarter '24. We are optimistic. So at the end, it's the same type of results, which is higher than what we were doing in 2019. So we should not -- in the meantime, we have progressed and same on the old trading -- same on the old trading. So I'm not yet there to think that it could diminish. What is also true is that you have more competition in trading. In fact, that's true. Just I'm observing that landscape. After the financial crisis, the banks have exited this commodity trading, most a lot of banks. So in the end, on the old trading, you didn't have many players, the 3 European majors, some few trading house, I would say, 5, 6, 7 players. And then it results attracted many people. So we see national companies moving to trading, Aramco, ADNOC and others having -- and you see also, by the way, some U.S. colleagues who want to make more trading. So you have more people in the same basket, I would say that probably has an impact as well on the capacity to grow. It's an observation. Upstream, I think upstream, again, it's not a matter of -- I mean, we have a -- we have been first to be able to grow by 3% per year in a market which is growing globally by less than 1%, oil and gas, 1% is quite a challenge, remember. So I mean, to think that we could maintain -- I don't know if we maintain 3%, 2%, 3%. I remember figures when we were 20, 15 years ago, we were speaking about 5%. We never made the 5%. So I mean, it's back to where do we want to invest in which type of project. The only constraint we have is the one which I -- clearly is strong, if we want all these projects to be less than $20 per barrel CapEx plus OpEx or less breakeven lower than $30 per barrel. This is a constraint. But this is a question of resiliency in terms of low cycle. I want -- I mean, this is what we confirm. And I would say what we are demonstrating is that we can grow at 3% having that constraint. So I think does it limit? Yes, that means you will not see TotalEnergies investing in certain fields that we have exited, for example, oil sands in Canada because we are thinking that not fitting with this criteria. And so can we continue to grow with this constraint? I think then yes. But again, we never, at the Executive Committee level, stopped the project and refuse to allocate capital if the project was fitting with this criteria. So we are not constrained by the absolute number of CapEx. I think it's fine. But we just -- if projects are fitting the criteria, we move on. We move on. We are good on oil and gas, and we can appreciate the capacity to have -- today, again, I consider that the capacity of the company to grow by 3% on oil and gas is quite a strong proposal of the investment case of TotalEnergies. So maintaining it beyond 2030, I think, is a challenge, but we'll continue to work on that.

There is a question there for a while, please go ahead.

Okay. It's Mark Wilson from Jefferies. It's kind of related to what you were just answering. You've got a remarkably consistent reserve life index over the last few years that you show yourselves versus peers. The first question is, what do you feel has contributed to that? Is it the geography of your assets, the efficiencies you put in? Is it exploration or even M&A? And then the second question is, given the growth that you're projecting the 3%, where do you feel that reserve index will be, higher or lower by the time we get to 2030?

The answer is quite easy. It's a permanent focus on that parameter. As an oil and gas company, I mean, maybe because it was part of my previous job when I was at the head of the strategic growth in E&P during 5 years. For me, it's absolutely essential to keep an eye on this reserve life index. So -- and there are 3 things that when I became CEO. First, LNG is good because LNG, if you build an LNG projects, you have very long -- you build an LNG project on very long plateau. So if you can identify good reserve, long reserves, that's good for helping your reserve life index. That's why we are working hard on Mozambique. It's not only that project is beyond. So that LNG is a good from this perspective, it is contributing to it. Second, exploration, yes, don't advocate on exploration. I mean, keeping $1 billion. We have -- and remember, we reduced the budget from $1.5 billion to $1 billion, and we are more efficient. So it's part of it. And then having access to discovered what we call DRO, discovered resource opportunities either by being -- the Middle East, obviously, is part of it. I mean when we decided, I think first decision I took was to maintain to extend this concession in Abu Dhabi, yes, and Iraq. So you go where you find long reserves with all cheap costs. I mean, so it's fitting with all the criteria. But again, for me, it's essential. And even if we have a strong transition strategy, and we are strong on building this electricity business, we never defocus on oil and gas. Because first, this is -- again, most of our shareholders are buying shares of TotalEnergies because it's a nice oil and gas company, delivering results first. It is where the cash is coming from. Even if we have from electricity, it will come from '28 and which will fit. So it's just the organization is focusing on that. And by 2030, the objective is to maintain this 12 years, 11, 12 years. And it's just a question of continuing. The life continues. So we'll continue to look for more opportunities in the different geographies. And we went to Brazil because these giant fields, they have a shorter life, but at the end, it's also contributed. So it's, I think, really for me, it is one major criteria of the sustainability of the oil and gas company in the future. And that's why we are focused on it, and we'll continue. And we deliver up to us.

We have Lucas here, please.

Lucas Herrmann, BNP. I guess we've got to the stage in proceedings where the questions become a little more abstract, but 2, if I might. Stephane, the first to you, just battery. Is it more important now or less given the way that the strategy is moving? And does that mean that the level of spend or the intensity, et cetera, the capital intensity of your business in ways increases because it's not so much build out of power, it's also build out of storage. And the second, sorry, is around LNG and project financing. And I mean, there's a lot going on in terms of liquefaction growth. And maybe it's to you, JP. I'm just reminded of when Yamal came on stream all of those years ago, and I think we were all expecting -- this is a modeling question, but we were all expecting quite a lot of cash flow. What happened in the end was we got quite a lot of cash flow, but an awful lot of the cash flow went to pay down project financing. So it's just to understand with projects like Mozambique, for example, when we come to think about the cash flows into the future, how much initially is going to be absorbed by the project financing associated with the many liquefaction projects that you're building out. I said, it's that stage where it becomes a little more abstract. The questions that is.

The battery, you can go to batteries.

Yes, battery are more important because we see that especially when you have solar production in the country, that's a very useful tool to play the energy arbitrage. So in the plan, we are planning to grow battery. We have nice pipe in Texas. We acquired as well 4 gigawatt of pipe in Germany with Kyon 18 months ago, and we are deploying that. On the other -- and it's fully included in the $3 billion to $4 billion CapEx. What is interesting with battery is that you can clearly apply the same capital-light model than for renewable, and we are actually on it where you toll the battery, you give a guaranteed revenue to the battery and you are able, one, to leverage with nonrecourse debt, the battery and second, even to farm down. And we have currently launched a process to do that with a lot, a lot of interest on the subject. So we will basically apply the same model to the battery than to renewable.

To be honest, on the second question, I will have all the details of the project. I have just one figure, and only Mozambique by 2030, if it starts in '29 is an additional free cash flow CFFO for us of $500 million. So the cascade of how does it bring that? I don't have the details, but just to give you a magnitude. And just the first year, so probably it better. So -- but I think our teams can better come back to you. So at the end, it's okay. I mean I'm not fine. I'm fine with that.

Henri Patricot from UBS. Two questions, please. The first one, going back to LNG beyond 2030, you highlight a few potential opportunities in Mozambique LNG future phases, Papua, Canada Pacific, but also that quite a few projects are going ahead already for the late kind of 2020s, early 2030s. Do you see a market in which there will be room for more than one of these? Or would you be much more selective in terms of which LNG projects go ahead in that time frame?

When you sanction a project -- a new project in 2030, you are in 2035, '26. So I mean, on the contrary, I think the beauty, if you are able to be countercyclical because you have good opportunities, it's better to anticipate if the price is low by 2030. So I think -- and the Mozambique Phase 2 might be the obvious case, in fact. So I think you can then be proactive in ways. So that's an idea, for example. But there are room for more projects, and we just gave you ideas to tell you that the story does not end in 2030. We think we begin to think to what happened beyond. So it's just a message coming back to reserve life index and things like that.

Understood. And second question on the disposals and the SPDC Nigeria disposal. Is that something that's still in the...

It's active. Nigeria is always a nice country. We will -- we have accelerated on divestments of Bonga. It was not planned last year. SPDC, the previous buyer has difficulty to give us the money. So I want the cash. I will not lend in the money like others have done just to have a headline. I want real cash. If I'm just receiving $100 million and then I just lend the money to him and I'm still there, I'm not there in this type of deal. TotalEnergies is not there, to be clear. And I refuse to do that. So either they got the money and I got my value or I prefer to keep the asset. But I'm not there just to make a sort of -- I don't know if you qualify it just lending money to give it. So that's the difficulty. But again, it's Nigeria. I'm -- we have other potential buyer, and we will come. We are working on it actively. Nicolas has that on his personal objective. He loves Nigeria. But I'm helping him to be clear. I'm helping him as well. Now again, that's a reality. That's life. So we moved quickly. So in the divestment proceeds, we will have Bonga and not this year, but we are working on it.

Okay. So let's go online. Peter, if you are still there, if you just ask your question.

The first was just on the LNG target. Can you clarify what that assumes for the volumes that you have been lifting from Yamal? So do you expect those will continue if the EU does ban imports of Russian LNG from 2027? And then the second one was just more broadly, you've got quite a lot of growth coming through over the next few years. Can you talk a bit about the execution risk you see around that and kind of how confident you are on kind of delivering on the growth profile you've outlined today?

Okay. Second question is very good because now everything is sanctioned. We need to execute properly. On the LNG side, on the Qatar part, I would say I'm confident. We have close discussions not only with QatarEnergy, of course, France, but also with Technip Energy, which is -- and we see the first train middle of the year and then new trains every 6 months, more or less. So I mean the plan is there. It's true for NFE. NFS, we'll see later, but we have -- will come beyond. Rio Grande Train 1 to 3, I would say we are in advance on the execution plan when I'm looking every month to the progress of the plan. Bechtel is very dedicated to that. And we have no -- today, we don't see -- we are not in a red zone. We are even in advance. So I would say on this one. It's -- by the way, we have an idea maybe to propose to some of you if you are interested to visit this plant in construction. It's always spectacular to see a huge plant in South Texas where it's in this new area. So that's what I can -- Yamal, first, in fact, there is an assumption there that Yamal is not there in 2030. I don't know. We are precautious about it. So in fact, we don't know exactly either what the European will do. Either it's just banning Yamal LNG to come to Europe, but not taking sanctions against Yamal. If there is no sanctions against Yamal, I cannot execute the force majeure to be clear. I am partner. I have some commitments. Up to me to take the LNG and to bring in somewhere else than Europe, maybe to Turkey,, to India. Turkey is not far from Europe. It's not in the EU, so we'll see. That's part of the difficulty. So we don't know exactly what will be the regime. Today, they are more speaking a ban to Europe, EU, ban to EU rather than sanctioning. So 2 different configurations. Of course, if there are sanctions, then end of the story, we have to stop and we'll stop and we execute the force majeure. So that's why in our plan, we are cautious. We have a view that maybe the sanctions will come 1 year if the war lasts. But I hope it will not last until '27, '28. I'm not at all a decider there. So we'll see. So that's for Yamal, I would say. So in our figures, Yamal somewhere is offset from '28. It's a worst case, I would say worst. We don't know. We are waiting to see what the political leaders will do. But the last draft we've seen, it was not sanctioning. It was more banning, which then we have to take care of the LNG of Yamal. And we are working on it to see how we could manage it from a commercial point of view. Remember, [ Train ], Yamal, we have -- we are contract for 5 million tons, 2 million to Europe and 2 million to Asia and 1 million is not geographically led. That's where we are. So again, that part is not in our hand. We are following the decision from European political bodies.

Questions?

Did we exhausted all of you? Doug has another one. We can make another round, okay. So Doug?

I appreciate the follow-up. I wanted to come back to exploration, Patrick. And there's 2 parts to my question. When you have a lower risk exploration or development area like Iraq, margins tend to be lower. So I wonder if you could speak to what the PSC looks like, how those margins without specifics, obviously, compared to the broader improvement in the cash margin you talked about. My second part is you did add 25% of Block 53 in Suriname, which already has a discovery. What is the plan for Krabdagu and future exploration and development, including Block 53?

Okay. The second one, honestly, is quite easy. It was an opportunity from CEPSA. They wanted to divest. They are exiting upstream next to door. So it's an easy connection. But for me, it will help to maintain the plateau longer. So this is a discovery. It's not a big one. We speak about 30 million, 40 million barrels of oil. So it's not major, but it's easy to connect. And entering will avoid a difficult unitization process. So we'll be in, so it will be easy. Apache is in. We are in. We have PETRONAS, but we will help to do it. And so having a longer plateau, just to be clear, so it's extending the plateau. So it was a very -- an easy case to take. It was not very expensive. So it's good. Iraq, exploration in Iraq, not much. I prefer to have access to our existing fields. No. Honestly, the contract we have is quite -- it's not a low margin. It's a good margin. It's accretive. It's contributing to the $25 per barrel at $80 okay? Otherwise, no. Iraq, we were quite pioneers to come back there in 2022 when 2020, during the COVID, all our colleagues were exiting Iraq. We came back. And we said clearly, there is an Iraqi risk. I mean, so we said to government, it's risk and reward. So I can come and invest, and we've done it in an easy way, but we need to have the clear rewards. So no way to accept any service contract to be clear. So we need to have an incentive to the oil price. We set it a contract, a new type of contract. I think some of our peers now are coming back to Iraq. I made the Prime Minister recently told me thank you for having convinced your peers. I want to keep a space for me. I don't give them everything. Now today, in Iraq, and we had a discussion with him, by the way, I told him, look, you still have quite a number of discovered resource, which are not developed. So to invest in exploration, so I prefer just which is a longer cycle, why don't we try Ratawi, was undeveloped. So there are other fields like this one. So we are looking to where could we, in fact, even in the interest of Iraq to increase the oil production, it's easier to come on something which is discovered and we try to accelerate. This field Ratawi, in fact, we took it at 30,000 barrel per day, 60,000, 120,000, 220,000. At the end of the cycle will be we signed the final '23 in 5 years. So it's a shorter cycle than going to explore and then to find. And then you have to find the pipelines because we do with the discovery. So I'm not -- maybe we'll do it because the government wants, but honestly, our priority is think even for the country, it's better if we can quickly grow production of existing fields. There are some giant fields where clearly we could improve the production. It's a question of -- but what we are demonstrating to the authorities is that we can work together with BOC, oil companies in a scheme where Total operates, we have some secondaries and all that is good for the benefit of the country. So can we repeat the scheme? We'll see, more my priority. But clearly, it's -- when we go to these countries, like the rewards needs to be consistent with the risk that you take. But again, by the way, the situation in Iraq today is fine. And I visited that, even it's better than we thought. I was -- so it's surprising, but the country is going to a form of normality. There are elections, so we'll see what will happen with the elections. On our side, the fact that we have been able to award all these EPC contracts with this government is really a strong achievement, and I'm proud of the teams who have managed to do that.

Any last question? Irene.

Just a follow-up on Integrated Power. You retained the volumetric targets. You retained the target for cash neutrality by 2028. You have cut the CapEx, and I just realized you have also reduced the targeted CFFO from that division. I'm not sure I understood why the cash flow is lower this time around. It used to be over $5 billion in 2030. It's now between $4 billion and $5 billion.

Yes. Because there is this CapEx? The volume in net production, not in capacity. In the previous scheme, there was 100 gigawatt of renewable capacity growth. Here, you have only 80 gigawatts of renewable capacity. So we have adapted that because we need more of flexible assets and less of renewables. So in fact, the reality is that the way it's produced is not exactly the same. And it's also adapting to the markets we are targeting where we are more comfortable to invest. In fact, the decision which has been taken we have -- is you have key deregulated markets, one priority, 70%. The oil and gas country where we see some synergies, Iraq, Libya, where we see some synergies helping, by the way, to have access to contracts on the E&P side. And then the other countries, what we call the renewables one, where honestly, we inherited a lot of countries where we will -- it's not a priority of the company to be a pure renewable developer. We are not a renewable developer, fundamentally. So we inherited from that from different acquisitions. And when we put all that on the paper, we said, okay, what do we do with all that? And there are too many countries, too many CapEx being spread there and there. And so what we intend to do is to keep some ones where we think there is a capacity to grow it efficiently of India, South Africa, a few ones or to do it with partners. So we are looking to find partners, and you will see soon why I'm saying that if we conclude what we are working on. Or we say, okay, these are projects which are good, let's divest them, let's stop. So there is part of cleaning the pipeline, which was not done last year. And again, that's why I think you need to accept that we continue to progress year after year and refining, I would say, the business model, which is supportive of Integrated Power. And again, the more we move, more we are comfortable on the way we see the perspective, okay? But don't tell me that you are unhappy if we spent $3.5 billion instead of $4 billion. I would be surprised. Okay. If we are more efficient, we are looking for efficiency. Okay. So it's clear that we are -- we will have some portfolio management to be done, and we intend to do it in '26.

Any last question? 1, 2, 3. Patrick?

So thank you. Thank you for this session. We spent 3 hours together. So it's a normal standard, it's okay. I hope we have answered most of the questions. But again, I'm sure we will have more. Thank you for the attendance. And again, I hope you -- we continue to this presentation. There is no revolution. It's just giving you an evolution of the way we deploy our strategy and being more resilient, being agile and continue to focus on free cash and return to shareholders. Thank you.

Thank you.