Transport Corporation of India Limited (TCI) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

January 27, 2022

National Stock Exchange of India IN Industrials Air Freight and Logistics earnings 49 min

Earnings Call Speaker Segments

Operator

operator
#1

Good evening, ladies and gentlemen. I am Komal, the moderator for this conference call. Before we begin with, I would like to extend my warm welcome to all of you for joining us today. On behalf of the management, we have with us today Mr. Vineet Agarwal, Managing Director; and Mr. Ashish Tiwari, Group CFO. [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I would now request Mr. Ashish Tiwari to embark on this meeting. Thank you. And over to you, sir.

Ashish Tiwari

executive
#2

Thank you, Komal, and good evening to all of you, and I am extending my sincere thanks to you for joining this call in between your busy schedule of results and call season. We will begin with the highlights for quarter 3 and then followed by the question-and-answer session. Now I'm inviting Mr. Agarwal for his opening remarks and highlights. Thank you. Over to you, sir.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#3

Thank you, Komal. Thank you, Ashish, and good afternoon. Good evening, actually, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you again for joining us today to this quarterly investor call. Since many of you already know a lot about the company, I will not get into very specific details, but we'll take you through the broad highlights and look forward to your questions and answers. The company recorded -- record profits in this quarter in terms of its businesses. We have been able to grow the businesses, both in the revenue side and on the profitability side quite robustly given that there were -- in the quarter 3 of FY '22, we did see those towards the end where things started to slow down a little bit. Overall, the strength of the company, which is a diversified offerings of logistics services, has definitely helped the -- to mitigate many of the challenges that are there currently from a logistics perspective in the environment. The company has also been able to manage its liquidity quite well, and we've been able to reduce our debt levels, which were at INR 400 crores about 2 years ago to virtually 0 -- to about INR 50-odd crores, but we also have about INR 50-odd crores of cash on the books right now. Given that and the fact that supply chain related and logistics-related interest has been increasing in the last few months, we definitely see that the next few quarters to be quite interesting as well as rewarding. If you see this particular slide, quarter 3 was marginally higher in terms of revenues, but we'll go back to that later on. I'll go specifically now to division-wise, where I'll talk about specific activities that have happened in each of the divisions. The Freight business has grown by about 8%. I think while we have to take in view that quarter 3 of FY '21 was very strong because there was a lot of pent-up demand coming from the first wave, and we saw a lot of push towards inventory stocking, et cetera. Some of that did happen in Q3 of FY '22 as well, but we did see that around Diwali things tend to slow down, but it did pick up towards the end of the year -- end of the calendar year. Margins have been maintained. Our guidance towards the FTL-LTL split has been maintained. I think we should definitely be higher than last year in terms of the FTL-LTL split also. Overall, freight across the system has been moderated only towards the end of the quarter because of the excise cuts that happened around Diwali. But otherwise, freight rates have tend to move up across in many areas right now. With the division being completely asset-light and only working capital as the capital employed, we see that the ROCs will continue to improve as the mix is also changing in that business. The next division I'm talking about is supply chain decision. Here, this is a business that has recorded negative growth between the quarters -- between last year the same quarter. Again, we had a very, very strong pent-up demand that pushed heavy sales of the automotive side of our business, be it the automotive industrial or automotive mobility side in the quarter 3 FY '21. Some of that, as you all are well aware that with the crisis in the semiconductor sector as well as the fact that there has been several elections that are coming up in the Northern states, agriculture-related automobile movements or tractors and so on and so forth have been quite less. The division also had a negative EBITDA growth. However, the margins have been maintained at the same levels. Over the full 9 months, of course, the business remains stable with its profitability. The receivables have also been very well controlled, and it is at a nominal level as it has been in the past. In terms of the demand that we are seeing is that there are customer interest has started to increase now when we are seeing that they're looking for the next financial year. So we are seeing there is a demand coming up in the next few months. In terms of the warehousing space, I have repeated that currently, we are optimizing the space that we have. We're trying to see how we can best utilize this space for our clients rather than going for expansion so that they also get the benefit and we are able to create stickiness with them. Though few yards, et cetera, have been added in the last quarter, but we will see some of that impact more so towards the end of the financial year. We recorded record results in our CVS business. It has grown by almost 50% in the last quarter and, of course, by more than 50% in the 9 months. The margins have also more or less doubled because of the -- essentially, the [ cargo ] business that we are getting from Myanmar. It is quite unpredictable because the earlier in the extension that happened until 31st March for pulses to be imported from Myanmar. We do not know what the status that will be there in FY '23. But currently, we do see some visibility in Q4. However, it is limited. We also have several of our ships that will be under dry dock in this month in this quarter. So we cannot really predict what will happen with Q4. But in terms of Q3, the fact that there was -- although we did have 2 ships that went for dry docks one after the other, we were able to still make up the margins in the quarter itself. On the West Coast, we've seen some increase in freight rates, and that is certainly going to help us going forward as well. Shipping prices internationally, as we know, have moderated a little bit, but they still continue to remain very, very high, which means that ship prices and container rates are also extremely high that this acquisition of containers is very, very high. So that has helped -- that has actually led to deferment of our CapEx plan also in this financial year as it is just completely not viable to acquire those ships at those rates right now. We are confident of achieving our goals for the quarter of the year in that business. In terms of the JVs, all the JVs have been doing relatively well. CONCOR joint venture, we had a slightly negative growth. Last year up to this period, we had good growth because of the first wave where cargo shifted from road to rail and to sea. But we are seeing that the -- some of the demand that had become permanent continues to remain there, and we will see growth coming in the next few months now also in this business. The Cold Chain business has grown quite well at about 78%, and our Transystem business has grown by 50-plus percent in terms of its revenue, and profitability has also been maintained and grown also. Overall, for the 9 months at a consol level, business is up by about 23% and profitability that is PAT level is about 143%. It has -- we have exceeded last year's full year numbers, of course, at a consol level also. At the stand-alone level also, the profitability is at 137% growth over the last 9 months of the previous financial year. In terms of an outlook, as I had also indicated in the last call that we are a bit cautious depending upon the third wave. We do maintain the revenue and the profitability guidelines -- guidance. But I think, clearly, we are much higher than that, and I do hope that we are able to keep up this momentum. But we do see a little bit trend towards a slowdown right now with demand in some sectors, but that remains to be seen. I already mentioned that there is the deferment of CapEx before the financial year related to the shipping. These are all our comments. We'll be very happy to take questions. Thank you.

Operator

operator
#4

[Operator Instructions] So the first question is for Mr. Prit Nagersheth.

Prit Nagersheth

analyst
#5

Yes. Am I audible?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#6

Yes, it's good.

Prit Nagersheth

analyst
#7

All right. I think terrific numbers. So I think you've kind of given an update on all the things I would have liked to know. But my question is more on in terms of future trends. I think be it IoT or be it other technologies that are coming into play. Can you give a sense in your view how you see the landscape changing over the next 2 to 3 years and how TCI could well be positioned to take advantage of that?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#8

Sorry, I was on mute. I'm saying from a technology perspective, a lot of things seem to be quite hygiene when it comes to tracking or to use of IoT in our various applications, whether it is Cold Chain related or whether it is related to other applications. However, a lot of movement has also happened towards mobile. So a lot of our applications, import for internal workflow management as well as for external customer interface, does exist on through our mobile apps. Other than that, the other things that are being built from a supplier management perspective or from, again, detailed customer relationship management, whether it is control towers or whether it is a single window solution for them, are all operational and continuously being developed or rather expanded as I would say. So there are -- certain base things are there, which are all hygiene from disaster recovery to the right kind of cybersecurity to the -- having the right databases like Oracle, MongoDB, et cetera. And then on top of that, of course, all kinds of applications are being built.

Prit Nagersheth

analyst
#9

Sir, within the point being is that -- do you see all these initiatives leading to more market share gain from the unorganized sector?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#10

Well, certainly, I think unorganized sector, I think, is not just because of technology, but also because of compliance. That is a major factor where business tends to shift. There are companies who were working with unorganized sector and are wanting to now work with organized companies because either they're looking for input credit in some cases or they are looking for ensuring that if they are sending their eBay bills, it is all through companies like ours where there is a certain semblance of compliance. So that is a big confidence. And the second aspect of shift from unorganized sector to the organized sector like ours is also national network. That is very critical because also the people have been working at the -- more at a regional level. So that has helped us also to attract some market share.

Prit Nagersheth

analyst
#11

Great. Okay. Lastly, the last thing I would like to know is that do we see us being able to at least stay on track for the kind of Q4 we normally have because of the third year of being impacting, especially in January and some slowdown? Do you see that kind of momentum continue as Q4 is normally the best quarter for the company?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#12

Yes, I think it's a little difficult to say right now because we do sense a bit of slowdown, especially in the automotive side. Clearly, demand gets hit at the moment, some wave starts because any kind of discretionary spending tends to stop. So that can have an impact on both consumer durables, consumer products and, of course, the automotive sector as well. So some of that can be there, for sure. I do believe that the other sectors should be normally robust. Maybe not as much as Q4 last year, but certainly should be better only from last year.

Operator

operator
#13

The next question is from Mr. Alok Deora.

Alok Deora

analyst
#14

Sir, congratulations on great numbers. Just a couple of questions. So first is on the margin. So we have seen that even in the second quarter when -- which actually got reflected in the third quarter as well, that we have been able to maintain very strong margins because of the CS division. So you mentioned about that some ships will now go into dry docks and even the return load might not continue. So if you could just provide some sense on the Q4 margins in the -- especially in the CS segment. So that is question number one.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#15

Yes. I think I have to be a little careful here not to give forward-looking statements specifically. So I can say that, yes, the Myanmar kind of business is active until the 31st of March. I think that's what the government has declared. And if the -- if it gets extended after that, certainly, we can continue to get that benefit. The -- we had 2 dry docks that happened last quarter, and the margins were maintained. We have 2 dry docks in this quarter. So I don't think the impact should be extremely large or negative from that perspective.

Alok Deora

analyst
#16

Sure. And also, if you could just throw some light on the 3PL segment because that is like one of the segments, which is kind of not really performing for us. So when do you see that kind of picking up? Because while other segments are doing pretty well, it's just this segment which kind of been a drag.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#17

Yes. I think we've been very careful not to buy revenues in this division because it's very easy to go ahead and get business, but at virtually no margins or at poor margins. Even at loss, some companies are taking businesses in the supply chain kind of business at loss. We are avoiding that completely because we want to protect our margins. Clearly, there are challenges with the automotive sector today with semiconductor crisis, and we know that as we see with the other OEMs today. Consequently, there is a challenge with the Tier 1, Tier 2 suppliers as well. Simultaneously, there are impact on the warehousing side with companies like -- that are in the consumer durable side. So they are also facing some challenges. And then simultaneously, you're seeing a demand crunch right now because of the third wave. So given all of that, it doesn't bode too well for the sector as a whole, but there is a lot of pent-up demand as we know with the automotive sector. There is -- all the OEMs are talking about a large gap in terms of demand and supply, which means that as and when the crisis, the semiconductor crisis gets resolved or is getting resolved, we are seeing that on the production side. Production logistics has started to increase, and we are seeing that already. So that will push the growth in the next few quarters, followed by the final product deliveries in the next few quarters. So I think the trends are now -- I think we are hitting the lowest points, and it's all going to be positive from here.

Alok Deora

analyst
#18

Sure. Just one last question from my side. So based on the discussion, we understand that the new shippers is -- we are not looking to buy it any time soon. So we are already clocking nearly INR 150 crore sort of quarterly revenues in the CVA segment. So based on the existing ships, which we have, how much revenues we can kind of do in -- assuming we don't go ahead with the new ship in the next year as well?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#19

So as is basis without the new ship, we should definitely -- and so there are lots of assumptions in that. One is, of course, there is no new ship. The second is, of course, that the Myanmar business continues as is. The third is that the freight rates continue to be stable, and -- which is a consequence of also, to some extent, bunker prices. So given all of these assumptions on an as-is basis and the fact that we would have possibly, I think, 1 or 2 ships less, definitely, I think only 2 ships versus 4 ships in this financial year with that might go for dry dock. So given all those assumptions, I think we should be able to -- the margins will definitely come down, but not to that extent.

Alok Deora

analyst
#20

Sure. Actually, I was asking about the revenues. I mean, how much growth...

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#21

I think revenue is also -- again, assuming the business from Myanmar continues, it might go on. But -- so it's a large assumption there since it is a significant portion of our profitability.

Operator

operator
#22

[Operator Instructions] The next question is from Mr. Rakesh Sethia.

Rakesh Sethia

analyst
#23

This is Rakesh from HDFC Mutual Fund. My question is regarding the CV division. I mean, obviously, a lot of revenue seems to have come from -- if I just look at last 2 years' number from the shipping division. What I specifically want to understand is in the scenario, let's say, the Myanmar volumes goes down, what is the kind of sustainable revenue and the margins we would be doing from this business?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#24

Yes. So margins and revenue are at a pre-Myanmar level. We're at 25% EBITDA levels. And so if you can see even last year -- Ashish, if you can just put that on full screen. So if you see over here, the 9 months last year was at 28% EBITDA. I think those are the kind of numbers that are quite reasonable and without Myanmar numbers. So 25% to 30% is what we've always maintained. I think the additional benefit we have is that because we've been able to get good cash flows, we've been able to pay off all the loans related to our shipping business. So we have no interest that is being incurred here. So that is the other benefit that we will see. So I think this maintenance of 25%, 30% gross EBITDA margins without any Myanmar business is quite reasonable. Secondly, the dry docks are going to be lesser next year. So that's the other advantage that we see. And -- yes, yes.

Rakesh Sethia

analyst
#25

So just to understand this better. So if I look at your -- this quarter's numbers, so let's say, shipping has done roughly about INR 148 crores of revenue. And the last quarter -- last year same quarter, you had about INR 104 crores. Does the incremental revenue has largely come from the Myanmar portion? Would that be a correct understanding?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#26

No, not exactly. I think it's a combination of the fact that the rates have also increased as you add between the last year and this year on the West Coast. As well as on the East Coast also, some rates have increased. So there is a benefit of value growth and also a certain amount of volume growth that has also happened. We've been able to turn around the ships better also. So I would not attribute the entire excess revenue. The increase in revenue between last quarter, last financial year and last quarter this financial year.

Rakesh Sethia

analyst
#27

Any color you want to give on how the volume and the value growth has been ex Myanmar just to understand how the shipping division doing, let's say, relatively speaking, on a year-on-year basis?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#28

I think it sometimes gets a little difficult to do that because sometimes the other ship is going, let's say, on the East Coast all the way to Port Blair and then dropping off containers and going to Myanmar and bringing back containers, right? So that could also happen on -- sometimes on the return cargo. And sometimes, the ship goes directly to Myanmar and comes back. So difficult to split that all the time, but I would possibly think that there was an equal amount of increase in terms of both volume and value growth.

Rakesh Sethia

analyst
#29

Okay. And one last question on the supply chain division. When should we expect the growth to pick up again? Because when I look at, let's say -- when I look at your numbers in this quarter and go slightly far in the history, the number seems to be largely flat. So any particular reason you would want to attribute? Or what needs to change for this growth to sort of accelerate?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#30

Well, I think we've been hit by the auto sector to some extent in the last few quarters. One was, firstly, the changeover from BS to BS-VI was one trigger that happened pre-pandemic. And then subsequently, once the pandemic hit, there was issues, then we had some growth because of pent-up demand. And now we have the semiconductor shortage. So it's been a series of a lot of macro events that have really impacted that division. And I think it possibly will continue in this quarter. But I think Q1 onwards next financial year is what we are also getting an indication from all the OEMs that pent-up demand is so high that it should start catching up. And we're also seeing interesting developments in the EV sector, for example, where we're also doing work, and those growth will also -- we should start capturing.

Rakesh Sethia

analyst
#31

And just a follow-up to the same, ex of automotive, what growth one should expect? Or what are your plans regarding the SCM business?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#32

Yes. So automotive itself is quite diversified, as you know. In the automotive side, we have a 2-wheeler, 3-wheeler, 4-wheeler that is commercial vehicles, agricultural equipment, earthmoving equipment. So -- and then the Tier 1, Tier 2 suppliers, et cetera. And in the nonautomotive consumer durables, chemicals, the pharmaceuticals and the FMCG, retail, all of those sectors are there, and we do expect that growth to be definitely a lot faster than -- well, I wouldn't say faster in terms of perhaps percentage-wise, maybe faster. But quantum wise, of course, a 10% increase in our automotive business is a substantial increase on the non-auto side. So I think quantum-wise, it might be the same increase. But percentage-wise, it might be lower in the non-auto.

Operator

operator
#33

The next question is from Mr. Krupashankar.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#34

Am I audible now?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#35

Yes.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#36

Sorry, I was on mute. Okay. I had a couple...

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#37

Your audio is very low. Can you be a little louder, please?

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#38

Is it better now, Vineet?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#39

Yes, yes.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#40

I had a couple of questions from my side. First on the price segment side. Can you do -- so you've seen that curve in margins have improved sequentially. And while the FTL to LTL mix has [indiscernible]. My question, who would you light on -- what has driven this margin improvement?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#41

Sure. So I think one is that the mix is maintained. And in fact, the mix is changing. So towards -- I think we should definitely reach 34% this year. And the other factor is capacity. Overall, there are hubs that are there and the utilization has increased with business volume increasing as well. Some contracts have been quite favorable for us as well. So overall, the business has picked up, and I think that helps us to maintain the margins overall. Some places, freight rates, as I said, freight rates don't have a direct impact because we don't have a negative impact. Sometimes they do have a positive impact. But I wouldn't attribute much to freight risk, more so to volume increase.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#42

Usually, LTL [indiscernible] from capital's typically 100% from hub to hub. And in addition to this, while on a sequential basis, while the LTL [indiscernible] mix has been similar, still I'm not that clear as to what has driven 3 basis points in EBIT margin improvement.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#43

Yes. It's essentially the -- see what happened in the first few months of the last year compared to last year, the volumes are not there. And hence, there was -- the ratios came down quite unfavorably. If you remember, the first quarter of the pandemic year 2020 and the second quarter because MSMEs were badly hit. We saw volumes come down. In fact, that ratio had gone down substantially from 33% to perhaps around 30-ish percent. And that started to pick up from Q3 onwards FY '21. And then we saw that growth happen. So that is exactly what is getting reflected here also that in the last year, we did not have that kind of volumes in the LTL side of the business also. So that had an impact on the EBIT margins.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#44

Okay. Moving on to the automotive...

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#45

I can't hear you. Mr. Krupashankar, could you be a little louder, please?

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#46

I'm sorry. Is this better?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#47

Yes, yes.

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#48

Okay. Moving on to the [indiscernible]. You did mention that there's going to be automotive rig addition in the third quarter, but the updated [indiscernible] otherwise. Is there addition coming in this year? What is your general view on the CapEx for this year?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#49

On the CapEx, you said?

Krupashankar NJ

analyst
#50

Yes, that's right.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#51

Right. Okay. So yes, in this year also, the -- this -- we have a plan to add 1 more rig that should happen possibly in the next 2 months. And in terms of the CapEx, we don't have any major fleet additions that are being planned right now. Perhaps next year based on contracts and based on replacement so that we will plan out in the next month or two and then release that. But yes, the crisis with the automotive sector is a little bit -- is much more than what we had thought it would be. We were expecting better demand -- better supply, rather, and then for better movement. But unfortunately, that did not happen. So we got hit in Q3 for the supply chain business.

Operator

operator
#52

The next question is from [ Mr. Srinivas Seshadhari ].

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#53

Yes. So I just -- I had a couple of questions more centered around the JVs. So the first is on the cold chain. Maybe if you can just update on your plans there because the current year, we've seen a good ramp-up and probably growing ahead of the plan that you indicated for this business. So broadly, what's happening? And how do we kind of -- are we looking at a more rapid scale up than the 25%, 30% kind of a group target that we had in mind earlier. That's the first question.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#54

Yes. I think, see, it's -- a lot of changes has started to happen in this business generally. And the reason by -- well, one is that our business is still very small in terms of its size. So the growth numbers do look quite large. The opportunity is large. There is a lot of customers who are looking for solutions. And I think the quality solutions that we are providing has definitely given the market confidence -- given the market a lot of confidence that we can pick up large accounts and large businesses. So -- and then the addition of the joint venture has now started to also help us with -- that they also do bring in certain clients and discussions on with many of them. So we do see that the business should keep up its momentum. Typically, many of these businesses in our experience has been that you'll see a huge amount of growth in 1 year and then it will taper off a little bit. And then again, we'll see the growth pick up because you tend to consolidate some of the new business that you get. So I think the growth plans are similar in terms of what we have said, about 25% CAGR for the next 3, 4 years. I think we should be able to definitely maintain that.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#55

Okay. And could you also kind of provide some a little bit more detail on what are like the top 1 or 2 segments as they are developing today and where the potential is to grow here?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#56

Well, we do work, as I said, mostly in the FMCG side. We do a lot of work. We do work on the dark kitchen, dark cloud, the cloud warehouses also. We do work on the -- some chemical companies also, and -- but less on the dairy and less on the fruits and vegetable kind, which is typically tends to be a little bit more low value. So we are a little bit more focused on the higher value items, including QSRs. We do work with several QSRs.

Unknown Analyst

analyst
#57

Okay. Great. The second question is on Transystem. Now this JV has surprisingly bought their train in terms of -- I mean, as I understand it, it is also a bit of a supply chain-type business. Though I mean, generally, the industry has been slow on the automotive side, but this JV seems to be being quite well. So maybe some commentary there on whether they are -- it's more driven by the anchor client who has been doing better. Or is it that you're also winning some meaningfully new business synergy?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#58

You're bang on. I think it's an anchor client. It's Toyota in this case. And Toyota, as you know, has done much better than any of its competitors, not just in India, but also globally. And that has helped us to ensure that we've seen growth. So that's -- again, I think I cannot reemphasize the importance of the diversified offerings that we have and the diversified customer reengagements that we have. It's not that some of our competitors, where 50% of their business is coming from one company and the volumes and business tends to get affected because of that. Yes, we are the large dominance in the automotive space, but it is also diversified clientele base, which -- and diversified clientele base, apart from the fact that it's not just in 1 type of business, not like only 4-wheelers. It's other things as well. So I think all of those factors help us to sort of have balancing trends when it comes to our overall business.

Operator

operator
#59

The next question is from Mr. Prateek Kumar.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#60

My first question is on diesel prices. So after this 10%, 15% odd cut, which we saw in November. So how was that passed by company to customers across segments? Or was that to retain, which also benefited our margins?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#61

In what, sorry, 12%, 13%?

Ashish Tiwari

executive
#62

Diesel price.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#63

Diesel price, okay. No, no, it's a pass-through, not diesel price. We cannot keep -- it's a cost to us. So we have to pass through. And you're seeing the fall in price, sorry.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#64

So the fall in price, like, for example, in safe segment that you have 30-odd percent is LTL now. So is that LTL segment at least not so much susceptible to price changes when it falls?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#65

Yes. Well, customers are much smarter than us. So they obviously demand for lower prices as soon as these diesel prices also come down. We're able to maintain it to some time. But then ultimately, you do have to pass it on back, whether it is LTL, whether it is FTL.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#66

And the bunker rates in shipping segment, have they also remained inflated for the freight prices or they also saw some softness after -- I mean, I don't know if the price work are there.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#67

No, the bunker prices are more or less stable items. I haven't -- they've not been cut much. There's marginal, I think, impact. We can put out [indiscernible], Ashish.

Ashish Tiwari

executive
#68

Yes.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#69

Okay. And you mentioned about there's some slowdown in some sectors of late, which may be due to the Wave 3, which you've also heard from some of the other companies. So is it possible to like just detail a bit more that like the whole jammer is like sort of a very slow or like [indiscernible] now things may be normalizing, so things are better.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#70

Yes. Well, I think, certainly, the consumer discretionary kind of sectors have seen some impact, whether it is apparel, whether it is consumer durables, automobile, of course, we know that. But -- and I think this will possibly continue as and when there is a lot more confidence that we can go ahead and spend. I don't see any kind of major festival season also coming up that can drive some kind of a push towards consumption, but I think let's see what the budget comes out. But nevertheless, I think, overall, it is -- the positive news is that the CapEx -- the -- some of the industrial sector kind of movements do continue because the government spending continues in the sectors overall, whether it is on the infrastructure side or some completion of projects, et cetera. So that is pushing the industrials to some extent, and I have not seen any kind of major slowdown or any kind of orders that have been cut there. Steel remains more or less, okay, not softening yet too much, again, I think driven by infrastructure spending. So yes. So I think, overall, some areas we are seeing a bit of slowdown, but I'm hoping they will start catching up towards the end of the quarter. March is typically the best quarter also because I think a lot of the Indian companies are trying to close their books. So there's a push towards sales.

Ashish Tiwari

executive
#71

Yes. But last year, we had a really high base of INR 900 crores of revenues for Q4 for consolidated operations. So when we say a slowdown, it's like on year-on-year growth, which anyway is like looks slow for this quarter because of a better base. So Q4 may have a slight dip also in that sense. So when we say like the sequential slow down, so I think we are running up for a very high base comparison on exporters.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#72

Truly, I mean, I think you're right, the base is high, but I think the -- there is a certain momentum in certain businesses. I think we should catch up some of that growth also -- and that's why I think in Q2, when we were discussing how Q3 and Q4 will be and when we are moving towards a little bit more moderated growth, I think those questions came up, why is so moderated. But I think this base effect is going to play out a little bit.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#73

Okay. And one question on CapEx. So we have incurred INR 19 crores. So what is the number for this year now, including rig investment and other...

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#74

I think we should look at around INR 50 crores to INR 60 crores in between that number. Possibly we have certain CapEx that is underway right now, and hopefully -- and they are -- they will come out in Q4. So we should hit close to INR 50 crores.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#75

And when we say that shipping prices are very high, which we know. So we are looking to spend INR 60 crores to INR 80 crores on ship. So what would be like current spot prices, which are like really trend for us to buy that particular ship?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#76

Three to 4x more than what we paid for the same ship. So it's just absolutely insane. It just doesn't make sense at this current levels.

Prateek Kumar

analyst
#77

So INR 250 crores or the INR 200 crores, INR 250 crores odd, it would be...

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#78

No, I think -- so if it was INR 50 crores, INR 60 crores you're talking about, yes. So easily INR 150 crores, 20 crores, the same. I think the ship that we bought for 6 million is available for 20 million.

Operator

operator
#79

The next question is from Mr. Alok Deora.

Alok Deora

analyst
#80

Yes. Sir, just a follow-up question. So this -- looking at the way you just mentioned about the ship price being almost more than 3x. So any -- do you see any chance of buying a ship even in FY '23?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#81

Yes. I think so because I think some of this pricing will tend to moderate as we go forward because -- well, the global expectation is that post the March, April, things should start slowing down a little bit in terms of pricing. It might still remain higher. It will remain higher for sure because the capacity that is new capacity that has been ordered by the shipping lines, et cetera, will only come on stream in FY -- end of FY '22. That is a calendar year. That is the end of FY '22, December or early next year. And so that will have an impact a little more slowly. But pricing will perhaps come down hopefully by 20%, 30%, 40%. So it might be a little bit more attractive at that time.

Alok Deora

analyst
#82

Sure. And also, a slightly broader question. Over the next -- over the near to medium term, how is the competition you're looking at in -- across key segments if you look at the freight segment or even the 3PL? What's the competition like, which we are looking at? And how is it now also in terms of pricing pressure or some of the other aspects, if you could highlight on?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#83

Yes. Competitive pressure always remains. I think in both -- in all our businesses, the market overall is quite fragmented. So on the freight side, we do work with -- get hit by competition on both the FTL and the LTL side. On the supply chain side, there are 2, 3 companies that are active and also now looking for IPOs as well. So they are getting more aggressive in terms of revenue buyouts versus really maintaining profitability. So we do see challenges there. And on the seaway side, a little bit less competition now with -- I think everyone has enough on their plates and are quite happy in that sense. So I think competitive pressure is slightly lower. But yes. But I would say -- if I have to say, the highest competition does remain in the freight business and secondly, in the supply chain business.

Alok Deora

analyst
#84

Sure, sir. Just last question since you mentioned about the IPOs and some of the companies, which are getting listed in, say, 1 or 2 quarters. So how are we seeing that competition from their side? I mean do you think that will kind of reduce or it will further intensify, especially in the 3PL side?

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#85

No, I don't think -- I think, ultimately, on the 3PL side, what we see is that the quality of your services is what matters because these are longer-term contracts. These are contracts, which have a very specific performance clauses built in or has a requirement of intensity with the client, which comes by experience and which comes by working with multiple types of customers. They're not just working in -- with 1 segment. So I think that means that the intensity will remain. However, I think we would be cautious to not go in for -- to maintain our margins. I think, for us, that would be important. And then growth will come simultaneously also with our offerings that we have today.

Operator

operator
#86

There are no further questions. Now I hand over the floor to Mr. Ashish Tiwari for closing comments.

Ashish Tiwari

executive
#87

Thank you, Komal, for moderating this call. My sincere thanks to all of you who are joining this call. Take care and stay healthy. Thank you.

Vineet Agarwal

executive
#88

Thank you, everyone. Thank you for joining.

For developers and AI pipelines

Programmatic access to Transport Corporation of India Limited earnings transcripts and 32,000+ others is available through the EarningsCalls.dev REST API. Plans from $24.99/month — full transcripts, speaker segments, full-text search, and the recently-added /api/v1/transcripts/recent polling endpoint for ETL pipelines.