Travis Perkins plc (TPK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning to you all, and a warm welcome to our full year results presentation for 2022. As usual, I'm joined here by our Group CFO, Alan Williams, and many members of the group leadership team and senior leaders in the audience as well, and you're all very welcome. In the normal way, Alan will shortly run through the financial review, and I will return to recap on the operational and strategic progress that we've made, after which we'll take any questions from those in the room only. 2022 was a year of resilient trading performance amidst rapidly changing market conditions, which saw, through diligent pricing management, robust revenue growth of just under 9%. Solid performance in our merchanting businesses, which saw share gains and an overall improvement in underlying operating profit of 3%. And we made further progress in Toolstation with good growth in H2 after challenging comparatives in H1, and we continued our investment program to drive future growth. And our disciplined focus on the delivery of the strategy has grown value-added services now to 16% of our revenue, all the while being agile in the face of rapidly changing market conditions, preempting expected volume declines with proactive cost actions taken to underpin delivery in financial year '23 and beyond, ensuring overall that we are well positioned and well prepared not only for the year ahead but to continue to deliver our strategy. I'll hand over to Alan for the financial review, and I look forward to sharing our strategic and operational progress with you in due course. Alan?

Thanks, Nick, and good morning, everyone. So as Nick mentioned, the group has delivered a resilient performance against the backdrop of rapidly changing market conditions. Revenue growth of 8.9% reflects good management of further elevated levels of materials cost inflation on top of double-digit inflation in 2021. And whilst reported adjusted operating profit was 16.4% lower than 2021 at GBP 295 million, this reflects GBP 24 million lower property profits than the exceptional level we recorded in 2021 and also a GBP 15 million restructuring charge, to which I'll return a little later. Excluding these elements, Group underlying operating profit was 6.3% lower year-on-year. Adjusted earnings per share on a reported basis, so inclusive of the restructuring charge, were 11.8% lower, reflecting also a lower share count following the buyback program in 2022. Cash flow management was good despite the impact of inflation on working capital. Operating cash conversion was 67% and at 1.8x IFRS 16 net debt to adjusted EBITDA, we are around the middle of our target range. Finally, the Board is proposing a final dividend of 26.5p per share to take the ordinary dividend distribution for the year to 39p per share, and that reflects our ongoing confidence in the prospects of the group. So on Slide 7, looking at the revenue performance in more detail. This highlights for you the significant impact of the elevated levels of manufacturer inflation. In early 2022, inflationary increases reflected primarily supply-demand imbalances and availability challenges. As the year wore on, further increases were experienced as the impact of higher energy prices in the conversion process fed through to finished goods. Lower like-for-like volumes were experienced following an exceptional 2021. In the first half, this was primarily driven by the normalization of trading patterns in Toolstation; and in the second half, lower volume reflected the slowdown in merchanting end markets, in particular, private domestic RMI. The growth from the change in space is primarily driven by new branches in Toolstation and the General Merchanting business, together with the addition of Staircraft. It's also worth noting here 2 fewer trading days from additional bank holidays. So moving to Slide 8. I've broken out for you the year-on-year drivers of operating profit performance. The growth in gross profit was driven by the effective pass-through of pricing more than offsetting the impact of lower volumes as the business has also set out to recover inflationary impacts and overheads. These overhead inflationary impacts were driven, in particular, by salary inflation, energy costs and fuel costs. Given lower volumes, savings were made in variable overheads of around GBP 22 million. We remain focused on disciplined execution of our strategy, and we continue to invest behind our strategic priorities, principally the expansion of Toolstation and larger, more capable branches in the General Merchant network. I've also split out for you the impact of the 2 fewer trading days, the reduction in property profits from GBP 49 million to GBP 25 million in '22 and also the restructuring charge. So if I now turn to performance at the reporting segment level, starting with Merchanting. The segment again outperformed its markets with revenue growth of 10.3%, driven by price recovery. The financial performance was creditable given the high levels of inflation and the rapidly changing market conditions with underlying year-on-year profit growth, as Nick mentioned, of 3%, taking into account the restructuring charge in Q4. Underlying operating margin reduced by 60 basis points, driven by the dilutive effect of very high input cost inflation and customer mix towards larger accounts. While the cost-to-serve ratio was held flat as the business responded in an agile manner to the deterioration in market volumes and high levels of overhead inflation. And as mentioned in Q4, we undertook a number of cost reduction actions to ensure the cost base appropriately reflects the trading environment. The GBP 15 million cost of the reorganization was taken in adjusted operating profit and will deliver approximately GBP 25 million of annualized savings in 2023. The actions included the closure of 14 smaller general merchant branches together with 5 stand-alone Benchmarx branches as we continue to co-locate the Benchmarx kitchen offer in our General Merchant branches. Across the branches and support functions around 400 roles were removed from the business. And Nick will return to the theme of operational agility later. Moving to Toolstation. Overall, 2022 proved a challenging year for the business as financial performance reflected further significant investment in networking distribution capabilities to build the business for the future, together with lower DIY-related volumes, following exceptional sales during the pandemic. Performance improved in the second half following challenging H1 comparatives with H2 revenue growth overall of 9% and 7% growth in the U.K. U.K. operating profit fell to GBP 21 million, given the H1 volume impact and the significant investments we are making in both the branch and distribution network capability to provide a strong platform for future growth. With a significant proportion of space yet to reach maturity and customers responding really well to the overall proposition, we remain very encouraged by the prospects of the business. In Europe, revenue grew by 13% to GBP 104 million, with the slowdown experienced in DIY volumes in the Netherlands more than offset by strong growth with trade customers, notably in France, where the business grew by 50%. A further 35 branches were added in the year, together with additional distribution capability for the Benelux business with a new 200,000 square feet warehouse dedicated to branch fulfillment, which we opened in the second half. The operating loss increased to GBP 30 million as a result of the continued investment in capacity. For 2023, I would expect a similar level overall of losses in Europe with losses narrowing in the Netherlands as critical masses reached, offset by the annualization impact of those 2022 investments in France and Belgium. So as I mentioned, free cash flow generation in 2022 at GBP 95 million showed good operating cash conversion of 67%. Over the last 3 years, we've delivered an average cash conversion of 97%. Given the significant inflationary impacts on working capital, in particular, the debtor book, this was an encouraging outturn with debtor days reducing by a day despite the mix towards larger customers. Stock was well controlled with a double-digit reduction in volumes held reflecting an easing of availability challenges, the deteriorating economic situation and disciplined management. Creditors reduced as a consequence of the reduction in stock and lower year-on-year accruals. Looking at the breakdown of capital expenditure, around 2/3 of our base CapEx of GBP 110 million was spent on our strategic priorities specifically investment in Toolstation capacity and distribution capability and larger, more capable merchanting branches, particularly in larger conurbations. So for example, the new general merchanting branch at Bristol St. Philips, a new Keyline branch in Birmingham, a larger CCF branch at Loanhead in Edinburgh, and a full refit of our flagship London TP branch in Vauxhall. Maintenance CapEx returned to a more normalized level post the pandemic with investment focused behind maintaining a modern sustainable fleet. Freehold activity was lower overall in 2022 as this also reflected in lower property profits, albeit with a net investment in sites for future growth within the General Merchant, and I will return to property activity a little more on the next slide. At this stage, given the uncertain economic environment, I would expect base capital expenditure for 2023 of around GBP 100 million. The year-on-year reduction will be driven principally by the 2022 investments and distribution capability in Toolstation, dropping out of the number, and a slowing of branch rollouts following heavy investment over the last 3 years. So on Slide 13, some further details as to how our management of the property portfolio underpins the strategic delivery in our Merchanting businesses. In order to achieve our ambition to be the leading partner to the construction industry, it is imperative that we have a well-located network of safe and high-quality sites able to stop project quantities of the products needed every day by our customers. The freehold mix is between 40% and 45% of merchant locations by value. And since 2010, we've grown the market value in use of the freehold portfolio to over GBP 1 billion, while generating average property profits of GBP 23 million per annum and a net cash inflow of over GBP 100 million. We have very adept at recycling capital into key trading locations, in particular, in the top 50 conurbations. And in line with our strategy, since 2019, we've reduced merchant branch numbers by around 15% through site consolidation. We've improved operational efficiency with higher sales per branch and improved returns on capital and most importantly, have a safer network for our stakeholders. The balance sheet remains in a strong position, providing flexibility to the group and underpinning our ability to deliver the ambition in the medium term while simultaneously growing returns to shareholders. On an IFRS 16 basis, net debt to adjusted EBITDA leverage was around the middle of the target range at 1.8x. As a reminder, that target range is compatible with investment-grade debt metrics and hence an optimized cost of funds for the group. Given the uncertain economic environment, we intend to operate towards the lower half of the range for the time being. It's also worth noting that in 2022, we opportunistically bought back GBP 120 million of the September 2023 bond maturity and secured a 5-year GBP 75 million term loan on attractive terms. While the remaining GBP 180 million bond maturity this September can be fully funded from existing resources, we will continue to look at attractive refinancing opportunities. So in terms of the outlook, we are mindful of the current macroeconomic uncertainty. And as we have built our plans for 2023, we have assumed a decline in overall market volumes in line with industry forecasts in the mid- to high single-digit range. This will no doubt vary across end markets with private-domestic new build and RMI more challenged, while the commercial, industrial and public sectors are expected to remain more resilient. We expect product cost inflation to moderate, particularly as we reach the second half, albeit we would expect mid- to high single-digit inflation overall, driven by the rollover of prior year increases and further new increases already announced so far this year. Overhead inflation levels will remain elevated, given underlying inflation in the economy with this mitigated in part by the cost actions taken in Q4 '22 and continued tight cost control across the business. Whilst the expected market dynamics point to a challenging year ahead, we continue to anticipate delivering a performance in line with current market expectations. The actions taken to create a more agile business with broad end market exposure enable the management team to remain confident in the group's ability to outperform our markets and deliver attractive returns to shareholders over the medium term. And with that, I'll now hand back to Nick and look forward to taking questions later. Thank you.

Fantastic. Thank you, Alan. We remain clear on where, when and why we're investing capital and our long-term focus on growth and value creation for our business and the communities we serve is the basis for our strategy. We're confident our strategy remains valid irrespective of the short-term conditions we're navigating, deepening our relationship with customers to ensure we're the simplest and most convenient partner to do business with to get a greater share of their business and elevating our relationship with our customers to add more value and help them reduce cost, complexity and carbon while leading the decarbonization of our industry and providing the next generation of skills required in our business. Our priorities have not changed. We're able to navigate rapidly changing market conditions because of our operational agility and our discipline in capital allocation. These investments are prioritized to continue the evolution of our merchant model and maximize the growth opportunity that is Toolstation in the U.K. and Europe and to grow in the attractive markets that we serve. I make no apology now for repeating that one of the core strengths, indeed the beauty of our business, is the balanced exposure to the breadth of the U.K. construction industry where the long-term fundamentals remains strong and enduring. The U.K. needs more new houses that meet higher building standards. And this demand is serviced by our Keyline, CCF and General Merchant businesses as well as Benchmarx and Staircraft, all at different stages of the build process from the -- below the ground to the finished house. At 16% of our revenue, this segment is important and the long-term demand remains robust, but we're able to offset short-term demand fluctuations with our balanced exposure across the rest of the industry. Our existing homes need to be repaired, maintained and improved and importantly, to be retrofitted to enable greater energy efficiency for the way we live today. We recognize that in difficult economic times, the I, the improved segment of domestic RMI remains more discretionary than repair and maintain. But we do see our customers continuing to invest in their homes for the long term in kitchens, in new space, in insulation and we expect to see this recover quickly as the economy improves. And this forms 45% of our revenue base. Our communities need safer and more efficient public buildings, the social infrastructure that is the backbone of our society and where there is ongoing investment through central and local government to ensure schools, hospitals and social housing are efficient and fit for the future. The public sector covering social and economic infrastructure as an important and growing 20% of our revenue and strongly backed by government policy, primarily serviced through the group's BSS, Keyline and Travis Perkins Managed Services businesses. It's an exciting segment for us with ongoing investment in road and rail projects that we support, such as High Speed 2, upgrades to the A66 and the M25 and schools and hospitals and social housing. Adam Brooks and soulFit hospitals, build-to-rent developments in Glasgow and housing associations such as Golden Homes and their 8,000 properties across Kent, all requiring long-term upgrade, maintenance and retrofit for energy efficiency and providing balance in our revenue profile. The requirement for flexible and high-quality commercial, industrial, logistics and data centers continues. At 19% of our revenue, this market represents a robust pipeline of work now and into the future. This balance across the full breadth of the construction industry provides resilience, both in the short and the long term. So where are we on our journey from being the largest materials distributor to becoming the leading partner to the construction industry? Progress in our Merchanting businesses: BSS, CCF, Keyline and our TP General Merchant business, has been positive and in line with the plan. We clearly see the value of additional differentiating services to our customers. For example, we're really pleased with the Staircraft acquisition and how this is additive to our TP GM customers with leading innovation in systems that reduce waste, reduce cost and complexity. And we've made great progress in strengthening the positions of our specialist businesses to lead in their markets. Keyline as a civil engineering partner, civil infrastructure partner; BSS in social and commercial infrastructure; and CCF on energy-efficient building fabric expertise. The modernization of TP General Merchant continues through the focus we've given on our customer proposition, operational agility and colleague capability over the last 4 years, delivered through an optimized network of 800 merchant branches. Quite simply, we've done what we said we would do, focusing on giving our customers the best proposition and experience demonstrated by attaining an excellent [indiscernible] score of 4.7 on for TP General Merchant. And the results are great. Delivering for our shareholders through driving returns on the investments we've made. Operating profit up 18% versus 2018. Capital employed reduced by GBP 95 million. ROCE improved by nearly 300 basis points. And value-added services, as a proportion of our revenue, at 16%. And we continue our strategic journey through selective deployment of capital into our network to create destination branches, continued development of our digital channel to make us simpler and more convenient to work with and adding value through services that reduce complexity, cost and carbon. So just to bring that to life briefly. Here's an example of a new destination branch in Metro Cheltenham, combining heavy side and light-side products with higher and benchmark services, another example of our network investments, alongside those branches that Alan mentioned a few minutes ago. Our app, providing convenience and access to products and services literally in customers' hands every single day. Digital models to optimize the design and systems upgrades such as the work BSS is undertaking with NHS trusts and universities today or the provision of innovative timber engineering solutions for regional builders through TP General Merchant and Staircraft. Our ability to provide this for customers exceeds what our competitors can do, giving us the opportunity to drive further benefit for shareholders, customers and colleagues. So to Toolstation. We chose to strategically invest in Toolstation in the U.K. and Europe to benefit from the significant growth opportunity that represented by this light-side distribution model. Toolstation's strength lies in its strong trade customer proposition, coupled with its market-leading digital channel, then combined with the convenience and speed of its branch network and its ability to deepen relationships with our core trade customers whose response has been tremendous. Our confidence in the validity and benefits of this investment remains, and our EU network has continued to grow, doubling in 5 years. As a result, we've seen strong results. U.K. revenue up 90% versus 2018. U.K. revenue per branch up 13% versus 2018. EU revenue doubled versus 2019 levels, demonstrating value and future opportunity for shareholders. And we've made significant investment in our distribution capability, digital platform and the network to ensure the business's success and growth in the long term. And we've continued to improve our trade relevant ranges to deliver a truly trade-first proposition, not just for small trades people, but increasingly in collaboration with our Travis Perkins General Merchant managed services customers to customers like water companies by providing local convenient, rapid, digitally enabled replenishment of everyday essentials. Customer satisfaction with our digital channel is really strong, and that serves trade credit customers and many more non-trade as well. 50% of our branches are yet to reach maturity due to the rate of expansion over recent years, which creates the platform for strong sales growth in the future and operating margin improvement. And we maintain our first-mover advantage in Europe, transferring capability in digital tools from the U.K. to the Netherlands, Belgium and France as well as providing more distribution capacity for the future. We see encouraging trends in higher purchase frequency and bigger basket spend from our trade customers in these relatively new markets. Again, to bring our investments to life. Here, you see on the right-hand side, our distribution center, which will become fully operational, as Alan mentioned, in the second half of 2023. This upgraded capacity and automated capability will help us serve our small trade and general builder customers that are our core. And our market-leading digital app pictured there, conveniently presented through our app, giving customers choice on product and fulfillment options in a simple, convenient format augmented by their trade account. So as we deliver our strategy, we remain very focused operators. Our operational agility enables us to flex our cost base in order to continue to modernize the business, deliver long-term strategy and adjust to the prevailing conditions quickly but thoughtfully, alongside discipline in how we allocate and recycle capital to drive long-term returns, backing our leading businesses and their teams to deliver. As Alan mentioned earlier, too, we continue to chew in our OpEx and CapEx investments in line with conditions remaining focused on long-term strategy delivery all the time. All the while ensuring our investment thesis is underpinned by strong cash generation and careful working capital management. As a result, I'm really pleased with the profit performance of this business this year, given the rapidly changing environment we operated through and we continue to be confident in our ability to progress our strategy and modernize our business. At the heart of our purpose and our strategy are clear long-term goals: decarbonizing our industry, modernizing construction and creating the next generation of skilled people for our business and the industry. And this focus is creating competitive advantage for our business. We are taking complexity, cost and carbon out of customers' construction processes, innovation through Staircraft being a great example. Our industry-leading carbon reduction road maps, coupled with our use of carbon data for customers, is helping us win public and private sector contracts where customers are looking to work only with those partners who can help them reduce carbon and demonstrate social value. In 2022, we reduced our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 34% through investments in alternative fuels, electrification and low-carbon fleet technology. And this year, we're launching Scope 3 targets across each business unit. Likewise, we've seen that our long-term drivers in our markets are going to increasingly need skills that the industry does not have enough of today. This is why we've invested in our industry-leading apprenticeship program. In 2022, we've also extended our offering to the wider industry. And I'm so proud that our 1000th apprenticeship has now -- apprentice rather has now graduated. This program will continue to facilitate sustainable growth by upskilling the next-generation workforce in our sector. I'd like to take the opportunity to thank all of our colleagues for their continued diligence, hard work and above all, exceptional focus on delivering what is a very strong set of results despite the intense pressures in a year where we've had to face many, many changes in the conditions we operate within. We recognize that the impact of the sharply increased cost of living on the U.K. is having on our colleagues, and we've offered financial well-being support and additional benefits where we can be -- where we can as well be maintaining a strong focus on building a culture where everyone returns home safe and well every day. The outcome of these actions is articulated in our robust investment thesis: driving outperformance through market-leading businesses, driving attractive earnings growth, converting cash and allocating capital wisely, recycling cash through the cycle to drive further returns and maintaining a robust balance sheet, optimizing returns for shareholders, and we are committed to this at the heart of our strategy. So we continue to navigate choppy waters, but we're well prepared for the year ahead, able to respond quickly to changing conditions yet concurrently create new products and services to benefit customers and realize our strategy, always staying true to our purpose, with balanced exposure to a wide range of markets that have strong long-term fundamentals. I'm really pleased with the performance of the business, and we're confident in our ability to outperform whatever the weather, creating long-term value for all of our stakeholders. So thank you. With that, we will now take questions from those in the room. Do we have a mic? Perhaps Aynsley first?

Aynsley Lammin from Investec. Just 2 questions, please. Firstly, on Toolstation. I was wondering if you could give a bit more color what's driving the losses for this year? And particularly, if I'm trying to think of kind of how do those losses go into 2024? Is it lots of one-off OpEx that disappears? Or is it just you put an investment in that actually you expect to kind of get a higher revenue base in '24 to reduce the losses? And then secondly, just on the guidance, obviously, you're seeing kind of volume fall expected to be offset by price inflation. And presumably, you're kind of expecting gross margins to be flattish. So just trying to understand, is there a lot of kind of overhead operating cost inflation that you don't expect to recover this year? Because obviously, you're kind of maintaining the lower consensus expectation, but you've got the GBP 25 million of cost savings. So just trying to get my head around that a bit more, please.

Super. Thanks, Aynsley. Why don't I kick off on Toolstation, Alan will pick up the second one. I'm going to assume you're talking about Toolstation Europe, Aynsley. So look, let me start in the Netherlands, and we'll pivot through the countries if we may. We are now, as we've said, for a number of sessions now, we're now approaching over 100 branches in the Netherlands. And we've really seen the strength of the format there, particularly for our trade customers. And we expect as planned to break even by the end of this year and then be in profit ongoing. So we know that the model as we scale both our branch network, our trade proposition. And as I said, that we've ported the Toolstation app from the U.K. now into Europe, and that's been really well received by customers, the convenience of having that app on their phone we know that we can drive this business to profitability, and we see the maturity of those stores progressing as planned as well. and we will continue to open in the Netherlands. In Belgium, we've seen the strength. Again, we service a lot of that from the Netherlands from the distribution just across the -- distribution center just across the border. But we've seen the success both digitally and through our network of branches. So again, we remain confident about the trajectory. In France, we have continued to invest to really seize the opportunity that we've discussed a number of times. The size of the country, the spend in domestic RMI in particular, the way in which the trade work in France is deeply compelling and we have and we have had first-mover advantage. So we've continued to invest we've really understood the locations now that work well for our trade customers, small towns outside major conurbations where the trade live as well as augmenting that on major arterial routes into major conservation and we really have understood much better now how to attract, retain and really increase the spend profile of our French trade customers. So we remain really confident in the progress of our French business. We continue to invest because of the size of the price. The market there is at least the size of the U.K., and we are the first in. So we continue to invest there with confidence that we're going to be able to lock and unlock as we attract those trade customers and in the same way as we have done in the U.K. continue to progress the kind of sales maturity of our stores to make the progress that we made. So we are -- we envisage ongoing losses in France to make sure that we maintain the advantage that we have. Alan, do you want to pick up the guidance point?

Yes. So Aynsley, on the overall guidance for 2023. I think we put in the statement, mid- to high single-digit volume declines. That's in the market. That is based on industry projections from our most respected industry forecasters for where volumes are going. I don't have a better view than those forecasts. Since they were published, I think things feel slightly better. But I think it's still very early days for calling that. From the inflation piece on selling price inflation, I think I've set out what we expect across the year: probably low double-digit inflation in the first half in selling price or cost of goods, rather, from our manufacturers, which we'll need to pass through falling to a low single-digit -- low- to mid-single digit by the time we get towards the end of 2023. That's just the -- to do with the timing of the increases dropping in and out of numbers. From an overhead inflation point of view, we're planning things on around 5% to 7% overhead inflation. Remember that we have over 3/4 of our colleagues who on the frontline earnings, say, GBP 30,000 or below. And therefore, whilst they -- we're not a national living wage payer, we pay above the national living wage. We do want to index and continue to increase our salaries in line with the national living wage at the frontline. So that's 1 large component of the inflation that we're seeing come through. So if you put 5% to 7% into the model, the -- you get some overhead saving from lower volume, but then you get the GBP 25 million annualized saving on top of that, really to underpin the delivery in line with where consensus sits today, which is why we've made the statement that we're very comfortable with expectations.

Thanks, Aynsley. I think Ami was next and then Will.

Ami Galla from Citi. Just a few from me. The first one on outlook, if I could get back to that. Is there any -- as we kind of think about the overall volume outlook, is there any key differences that you can point out between, say, smaller builders and large contractors as you see in 2023? And versus the regional footprint and the city centers, do you expect any big divergences to pan out? My second question was really on social housing and the energy retrofit potentially that could come in the future. What are the bottlenecks that you're facing -- are you seeing today? And the conversations that you are getting from, say, housing associations and local authorities in terms of the pace at which this take-up is going through? And the last one, really on Toolstation, U.K. versus France, when you compare the basket of goods being purchased, are there any key differences in the kind of products that French customers are going for versus U.K. at this stage?

Super. Thank you, Ami. Let me take the first couple, Alan, then will pick up. In our outlook, key differences between small and large. Perhaps it's an obvious statement, but like many, none of us have been immune from the impact of the mini budget in September and its effect both on mortgage rates and consumer confidence. So clearly, through Q4, as we've said, we saw that impact the small trade typically served through our General Merchant as well as Toolstation and the kind of robustness of their project pipeline. Now as Alan said, actually, perhaps consumer -- the outlook for consumer confidence is slightly better as we sit here today than it has been over the last few months. Mortgage rates coming down, perhaps the economic impact of all of what last few years of thrown at us not playing through in the way that many predicted. So it might be that as people feel more confident than actually they get on with some of the projects that might have paused or postponed, particularly in the improvement part of RMI as I was saying, because that's always more discretionary. Actually, we continue to see very strong levels of activity in that space. But notably, people are more cautious about commissioning work in their home over the last few months. Larger customers working in, as I was saying, kind of commercial and industrial space, social and economic infrastructure, they are maintaining robust pipelines. The key issue for them is actually availability of skilled labor. So actually, the funding is there, the need to get those projects done is there. In some respects, we're still playing a little bit of COVID catch-up in some areas and actually we expect to see the robustness in those pipelines continue, which is why the kind of beauty of our business and the spread across the whole of the construction industry gives us that resilience that many of our competitors lack. Social housing specifically, many of our customers are really progressing that retrofit work as quickly as they can. Again, some of their biggest issue is around the availability of skilled labor to do the work. And so thus, our emphasis -- our continued emphasis on apprenticeships, but not just for our business but working with partners, customers as well as others in our space, to really ensure that we're training people in our industry, not just young people, but people in our industry to have the right skills to be able to take on those retrofit projects. We're encouraged by what we see in terms of the desire of those customers to get on retrofit. It's complex. And actually, in many respects, you've got to wait for those units to be available to actually have access to go and do the work. But actually, there's plenty of opportunity and the pace is picking up, specifically to your point about pace. So we look forward to in that segment and see not just a strong ongoing pipeline of work around kind of upgrade and maintenance but the retrofit looking to -- and starting to increase over the years ahead. Alan, do you want to pick up?

Yes. So Ami, on Toolstation U.K. versus France and the basket of goods that people buy. I think the bigger difference that we're seeing at the moment between the U.K. and France is just the overall proportion of trade customers in France is higher than the U.K. The reason for that is we set the business up specifically with the learnings from the U.K., from the Netherlands to really go after the trade opportunity in France. I personally think the trade are woefully underserviced in France with the light side offer that they get, and that's why I'm so positive about the opportunity that's there. The basket size in France, the average ticket, if you like, is much higher than in the U.K., 3x or 4x higher. That has a lot to do with travel times and also the weighting towards the trade. So the network is less dense than the network that you would find in the U.K. And hence, when customers do go out, they want to stock up rather than having the proximity to be able to go on a daily or even twice daily basis as we see with some of our U.K. customers.

Super. Will?

Will Jones from Redburn. Can I start with just the bridge for last year, please? I think within the revenue and profit there's about GBP 80 million extra of gross profit on around GBP 400 million of extra revenue for the group, so about a 20% drop-through, which might be less than we'd ordinarily expect. But is that really about normalization from the prior year or is there anything else to be aware of there? And then perhaps secondly, just 2 parts around Toolstation U.K. you've put the number out there, if I think of potential GBP 300 million maturity benefit over the next 5 years. But could you help us with what the benefit was in '22 and what you think it might be in '23? And then just secondly, on the U.K. there, just the rollout plans for this year. I think you talked about 10 branches for 2023, which feels like a change of plan versus 6 months ago and understandably so. But is that just macro led or is it something around the industry and the capacity that's behind the thinking there as well?

Brilliant. Thanks, Will. Alan, do you want to start on the first 2 and I'll pick up?

Yes. So Will, on the drop through, the 20% is not a bad number, I think, given the level of overall product inflation that we're seeing and the pricing activity that we had to push through in 2022. So I wouldn't read too much into to that. Overall, I was pleased with the approach that we took. And certainly, as I was saying earlier, the fact that we were able to put through more than the pricing that we needed to hold gross profit pounds flat was all about recovery of the overhead inflation in the year, which was obviously important given energy, salary costs and everything else we know. Could you clarify your point, sorry, on the second part of the question?

You mentioned the GBP 300 million number that might be of benefit in the next 5 years, but whether you had a figure in mind for what it was in '22 and what it might be in '23, just a bit more short term?

So it's really difficult to pull out a 2022 number. The revenue was essentially just a bit better than flat in Toolstation U.K. and overall in 2022. You've got a deceleration in DIY volumes coming out of the pandemic, but offset by growth with trade customers during the year. So I think that was a bigger feature for us than we saw -- than annualization of branches. So even in the mature branches, given how DIY performed overall, you saw some reduction in volume of DIY customers, again, offset by overall growth with the trade customers. Looking forwards into 2023, I think the key starting point is to look at the Q4 revenue performance in the U.K., 7% growth in the business. I think we had a really good autumn-winter catalog and ranging, and we've seen that continue to give us benefits through into 2023, alongside everything that Nick was showing you around the tailoring of the offer towards the key trade customers. Why do we do that? They shop more frequently and they buy a bigger basket. So they're the right target customers for us for the medium and long term.

And Will, then to your final question. No, it's no change of plan, but it is a sensible tuning of our plan, as we said. What you got to remember is that we've opened more than 140 branches in the U.K. in the last 24 months, plus a nice big shiny distribution center that we showed you there, all of which is major investment, plus ongoing propositional developments. And as we said, we've got 50% of our network that's still to reach maturity. So this is about tuning, this is about sensibly tuning in the face of the conditions that we operate in. And we always said that actually, we would go hard when it made sense to do so. And actually, we might tune the other way when it made sense to do so. So no change of plan. You're just seeing us being rigorous in our allocation of capital. Thanks, Will.

It's Priyal Woolf here from Jefferies. I think I've got 3. So the first one is just with regards to pricing. I think you talked about specifically manufactured goods is somewhere where you don't expect to see deflation anytime soon. I just wonder, do you have any sense of what proportion of sales come from manufactured goods versus more commodity types of goods? and within that, presumably, those manufactured goods have labor is a big cost base, not just energy and raw materials. Could we be in a scenario where actually the cost if those manufactured goods could be quite sticky over the longer term as well? The second question is just, are you seeing any signs yet of any suppliers at all prioritizing market share over pricing? And then the last 1 is just with regards to the volume outlook. You framed this as market volumes being down mid- to high-single digits. I just wondered if that left to open-ended that you would perform just in line with the market this year as opposed to over the midterm you want to outperform?

Alan, do you want to take this?

Yes. Thanks, Priyal. So on the pricing, I don't have an exact figure, but my sense is what I'd describe as commodity versus manufactured goods, it's probably about 25% commodity-related, 75% more manufactured. I do think on the manufacturing goods side, it's going to be more sticky and for longer rather than seeing the deflationary elements because there is more going into the mix when you take into account the conversion process. So labor costs and energy costs rather than just the pure raw materials. So take a boiler of the cost of the steel might go down, but I'm not sure the cost of the inputs to the overall process to manufacture are going to reduce. We're not seeing any particular change in -- that I would detect in supplier attitudes market share versus pricing I think whether that's supplier or distributor, the activity around pricing still remains very orderly given the high absolute levels of inflation that we've seen? And then on the final question on, I have been deliberate about market volumes, but Nick and I have also both been very deliberate about our absolute confidence in our performance over the medium term. I see that in '23 and beyond.

Thanks, Priyal.

Christen Hjorth from Numis. Three -- well, 2, I think -- well, maybe 3. First of all, on gross margins, just to confirm, would you expect price inflation to be in line with COGS inflation in '23? And then sort of related to that, is there anything around stock gain reversal, for example, from 2022 that we need to be aware of? And then just finally, on your medium-term plans in Toolstation Europe, do you have any sense when breakeven is targeted now?

Do you want to start on the first one, please?

Yes. So Christen, on price inflation in line with cost inflation roughly, I don't think that's pushing -- I think it would be wrong to say we pushed through 100% of cost price inflation into selling price inflation. But we will certainly continue to act to pass on those increases in an orderly manner to our customers. And given the level of absolute overhead inflation that we've talked about, I think it's incumbent upon us to also look to recover some of that overhead inflation in the model overall. From a stock gains perspective and reversal, I don't see a huge challenge to gross margins from that there's a little. But I think within the overall mix of what we're doing and also the mix between the 2 segments where Toolstation is a higher gross margin, the growth that we've talked about in value-added services, which have grown to 16% of the overall mix in the group and continuing to grow, those are accretive to our operating margin in the group overall. So we will continue to work on those elements to maintain the overall margin mix in the business.

And Christen, perhaps to -- just to repeat some of the points earlier, I mean Netherlands moving into breakeven by the end of this year and there into profitability gives us real confidence. It's following the model from the U.K. where we've got real confidence. And we wish to seize the opportunity in France. As I said, there's a real opportunity given the size of the market, the propensity for trade customers and consumers to spend on their property. And it's notable that our nearest competitor from the U.K. is now entering that space. So actually, where is not putting a number on the medium term, we look to continue to invest and seize the opportunity that France represents, given that the confidence we gained from the U.K., from the Netherlands, from Belgium, plus now the introduction and the porting of data capability and app capability to really open up the market-leading digital channel there, again, just gives us an opportunity. We don't want to miss. Thank you. Ben?

It's Ben Wild from Deutsche Bank. Three questions from my side. Just firstly, on the restructuring charge in Q4, maybe some more color on what you've done, what the impact is likely to be next year? Whether we should expect any impact on your volumes overall in Merchanting because I know you closed some branches? Secondly, in the Merchanting outperformance, you've spoken about this before, I just wanted to clarify. Are you continuing to outperform in Q4? And from your perspective, is that outperformance a function of the breadth of your exposure across the construction end market or something strategic that you're doing? And then my third question on Toolstation U.K. H2 EBITDA was much stronger than H1 sequentially. I'm thinking about 2023 and then through to the end of 2024. Are you still happy with that GBP 1 billion sales figure that you provided previously? And maybe some color on how we get there through to the end of '24?

Brilliant, I'll start, Alan. The restructuring charge, Ben. Yes, look, as we talked about, we expect that to deliver somewhere around GBP 25 million worth of benefit this year. But actually, those branch closures are all part of the plan that we started back in 2019. We accelerated through 2020. We've always said that part of the development -- part of the deepening the relationship with the customer in all of our businesses, but in the general merchant is about providing destiny -- larger destination branches where we combine our heavy side and light-side offering with benchmarks, with higher and where the digital channel works seamlessly alongside and that's what we've continued to do. So we have closed at the back end of last year, a small number of branches. But again, all a part of really recycling that capital and putting it into our large, best destination branches, where we know we get a much better customer service level, much better return on the capital deployed on behalf of shareholders. So all continuation of the plan, no knee-jerk just sensible flex in the light of changing market conditions. And we continue to outperform, as you say. It's -- as we've said before, it's quite hard to kind of read quarter-by-quarter into the data. What we do know is that in our General Merchant through the year, we grow ahead of the market. We continue to see ourselves outperforming our nearest competitors. And that's down to a number of factors. It's the fact that we've invested in our branches. As I've said, we've invested in our colleague capability. We've invested in our digital channels. We've invested in thinking really carefully about the depth and range of our light side and heavy-side products and where and how we put them on the ground for our customers. So I think it's all parts of the plan coming together to really enable us, both locally and nationally, outperforming our competition. Alan, do you want to pick up Toolstation U.K.?

Yes. So you're right, Ben, Toolstation U.K. better operating profit performance in the second half than the first half. I think that reflects primarily the volume mix between the 2 halves and the different customer segments. We still stand behind the GBP 1 billion-plus sales figure I don't think that's going to be 2024 given where we are now. But I think it's still a very tangible figure to get to over the next couple of years. I don't want to put an exact year on it and see that in writing at this stage, but it's certainly a medium term, very achievable with the network that we've now got. So as Nick said earlier, we're going to add 10 branches this year. That's a call on the overall economic environment rather than a change structurally in what we see the target should be or the capacity that's needed in the U.K. So the 650 branch target remains, the GBP 1 billion sales figure remains and also the mid- to high single-digit range is still intact as well in the thesis for the business. The one other thing to remember in 2023 is, of course, we are adding to the operating cost of the business by opening the [indiscernible] distribution center, but that will give us the capacity we need for the next 10 years within the business from a distribution capability point of view. The thing you do see about Toolstation and this is relevant to the earlier response Nick gave on Europe as well. We put in a certain amount of fixed overhead. The branches we open and they tend to be relatively modest on an individual basis. And within -- depending on the market within 12 to 30 months, we go through a contribution breakeven into positive contribution from the branches. From time to time, you will continue to have a step up in fixed overhead to support the distribution within the network overall. But once you've got that, and this is particularly relevant to, say, the Netherlands, once you achieve that critical mass point, the profitability will come through pretty quickly from there on in.

It's Emily Field from Barclays. I've got 3, please. The first one, just on the new Northampton DC in Toolstation U.K., do we need to think about that as being incremental cost for this year?

Sorry, can you just repeat that question?

Sorry, I've got 3 questions. They're all on Toolstation in U.K. The first question is just on the new distribution center in Northampton. Is that incremental cost for '23 and '24 or do we see it sort of being offset by something else elsewhere? And secondly, on this sort of transition to the trade in Toolstation, I realize it's sort of slightly difficult to know because DIY has obviously sort of fallen away post-COVID. But do you think you're seeing benefits from it already? Are you seeing trade customers order more or more often or is that a sort of successful strategy? Or do you think there's more that you need to do there to sort of make the trade aware that Toolstation is now more for them? And then sort of thirdly, just on the sort of transition to trade, do you worry slightly that it sort of stops Toolstation being as differentiated as it once was versus its bigger competitor sort of how does Toolstation differentiate itself in the future? Is it purely on price or are there other things that you think you can do?

Brilliant. Thank you. Alan, do you want to take the first and I'll pick up the second 2?

Yes. Emily, on the [indiscernible] question, reference my response to Ben just earlier. There are incremental costs associated with opening the distribution center. We have announced our intention to close the smaller Bridgewater DC later this year, which will offset some of the cost increment from opening the new center, but there will be operating costs associated with a new DC. I think also within the mix for Toolstation, year-on-year with revenue growth expected gross profit drop through from that revenue overall within the operating profit, that will be a contributive factor as well in the year.

Brilliant. Thanks, Alan. I'm tempted to enlist my Toolstation colleagues at the back there who would wax lyrical on the second 2 parts of your question. I'll try and do you justice guys. Are we pleased with the transition to trade, are we seeing the benefits? Absolutely. Absolutely. We made tremendous progress in the last year with our trade credit with the app and the simplicity of the app, we're seeing much greater frequency of shop by trade customers, greater basket size and the benefits to them of the really convenient and simple proposition. We always said we wanted to be absolutely relevant to the trade by having our branch locations sort of 20, 25 minutes from where they were working. So that rollout of the network is proving invaluable, but the app is also proving invaluable and the way in which the team have diligently kind of ranged trade essentials at the front of the branch always in stock really home the ranges to be very trade-specific has been tremendous. Does that stop us being differentiated? Absolutely not. We are still delighted to serve non-trade customers and do so every single day in our branches and through our app. The Net Promoter Score for Toolstation remains absolutely in a class of its own. Everyday low price and our differential to our nearest competitor remains. There's been rumors that, that has been closed. We don't see it at all. The ease of our proposition for both trade and non-trade customers remains at the forefront. I was just having some -- getting some feedback actually from trade customers over the weekend, would you believe, who were telling me that actually ours is much, much quicker, more convenient, more legible. We still have our catalogs available, which they love. All of these points are really, really important for our trade customers, and we really do index on them very importantly. And our range improvements. So we have been known for selling the cheaper end in some cases, that has changed out of all proportion. And so we are known now for the trade capable ranges and always in stock. So again, do we regret? Do we see the benefit? Absolutely, we're seeing that improve every single day. And we think we remain differentiated. Bear in mind that actually for the group as a whole, our core customer are the trade, and that's where we will continue to focus. Thank you for that.

It's Annelies Vermeulen from Morgan Stanley. I have a couple of questions as well. So firstly, you called out some of your end markets and customers seeing challenges with availability of skilled labor. I know you've talked about raising wages this year. But if you could comment a little bit on your vacancy rate, churn and attrition and how that's developed versus the very tight labor market we saw in the U.K. over the last couple of years, whether that has eased? Then secondly, on the 16% in Merchanting of value-added services, how do you expect that to develop going forward? Do you think that's the right kind of level and those services will grow in line with the rest of Merchanting or could that be higher? And if you could talk a bit about how -- assuming it is going higher, how you would achieve that, whether it's acquiring other capabilities or training of your people? And I think also, Alan, you mentioned that business was -- or that part of it was margin-accretive. If you could comment a little on how much more margin-accretive relative to the rest of Merchanting? And then lastly, just on potential full returns to shareholders. I appreciate the timing might be tricky, but in terms of how you think about when you would do additional shareholder returns, is it leverage falling below a certain level or would you just need to see more of an improvement in the underlying market and more confidence in the outlook before you would make that call?

Good. Thank you. Let me start, Alan maybe pick up the last one. Yes, we both called out. I certainly called out the fact that actually one of our -- one of the biggest constraints for the industry is the available of the skills and talent that we need for the future. And that's precisely why we've taken and put ourselves over the last few years to kind of develop our own. And actually, many of our future leaders of the business are sitting around you in the room today, and it's great to have him here. The 1,000 apprenticeships is no mean feat to our industry. So really, we're finding that we're able to retain the people that we want in the business by investing in their development and by using the apprenticeship levy to do so. And actually, as I said, what we're now doing is we're turning that kind of infrastructure that the team have so amazingly built to benefit the rest of the industry. So we're partnering with others to ensure that the industry as a whole has the skills that we need. We haven't seen a discernible pickup in churn. In fact, that's reduced over the period. And I think in large part, that's because we are continuing to invest in people and they recognize that, and they want to stay with us. The value-added services is an absolutely critical plank of our strategy. This is the piece where we talk about elevating our relationship with our customers to add more value, takeaway, complexity, carbon and cost, and we're really pleased with the progress we've made. We've diligently invested in some of our core services like Hire, Benchmarx and Travis Perkins Managed Services over the last few years, more so than previous years, and we're really starting to see the penetration rate increase within our customer base. But what we're really excited about alongside that is the benefit we're now getting from some of those things that we started in 2021 before we talked about them at the CMU using digital models and technology to model customers' assets so that we can with them value engineer, future upgrades, anticipate, planned maintenance, respond much more quickly to reactive maintenance and allow low-carbon efficiency in systems and materials to be deployed. All of that capability is now accelerating the growth of our value-added work stream with customers which we're really pleased about, working with regional house builders to optimize the models of their housing to have a much more coherent kind of offtake of materials through the construction process, making them much more efficient and making us much more efficient for them. So this is also taking a different set of skills, which is really exciting. So we've had about 80 people in our business now graduate through a data literacy apprenticeship. Who would have thought, right? A few years ago that we would invest in that sort of capability, but we continue to invest, and we're accelerating that. And that's a true differentiator for the industry and against our competition as well. So it's too early to say for us. Actually, we have great expectations of our value-added services. It's too early to put a number out there as a number of these services move from kind of proof of concept and selling into customers to scaling. But certainly, we see 2023 and 2024 as being years in which we will see the benefit of that. And obviously, we'll talk about it more in due course. I hope that covers all of the first 2 questions. Alan, do you want to pick up the rest?

Yes. So Annelies, on returns to shareholders. The first point I'd make is, do note that we increased the dividend both at the interim stage and the final stage reflecting the Board's ongoing confidence in the prospects for the business. I think we've got a very clear target range for leverage. The first thing, and our duties to judiciously invest in the business where we can see attractive returns. We talked about the -- some of the larger, more capable branches in the General Merchant. I can see those branches delivering on a lease-adjusted basis, high 20s, low 30s returns at maturity for the business. I know Toolstation branches on an incremental return on capital basis will deliver similar returns as well. So that's my first priority. And we've always said, when we drop towards the lower end of that target range, we will return any surplus capital to shareholders. We're not a particularly acquisitive business. I don't believe in the existence of large cost synergies, whether within the U.K., cross-border synergies across businesses in the sector, I don't see that. And therefore, once we've invested appropriately in the business, the next and only priority assuming that we have leverage in a target range to stay investment grade, that will be to return any service capital to shareholders. Now what is the trigger on that? I said earlier that at this stage, I want to stay more within that lower part of the range given the uncertainty as uncertainty lifts and assuming we're towards the lower end of the range, we should have another conversation.

Great. We have time for 1 more question. Will? Sorry.

Sam Cullen from Peel Hunt. I've got 2, and then just a clarification. Just a clarification first. On the value-added services, should we think about this is now an organic story, for me to say, or kind of an acquisitive story? I take your point, Alan, that you don't see it yourself as a particularly acquisitive business, but interesting to see where you're going from here. Secondly, on competition, particularly the smaller end, if volume is down high-single digit or even double digit, do you see any risk that some of your peers become less disciplined on price and try to kind of make it up on volume in the back end of the year? And then just the last question on Toolstation U.K. You have the credit account and you have the 5% everyday discount, which is half of one of your peers in the market, is 5% the right number? Do you need to go further? Do you need to get less?

I hope you're benefiting from that. So look, on value-added services, organic, yes, principally. We're acquiring and developing capability. That's at the heart of it. But actually, where it's attractive to do so, we will look at inorganic growth. So Staircraft is a good example of that. Some of the work that we do through Staircraft now, as I mentioned a couple of times, is absolutely in the sweet spot of adding additional value, taking cost and complexity in carbon out customers' construction processes. And that was an acquisition we made in Q4 '21. We're very pleased with the way in which that is developing. And we're very pleased with the kind of the way in which the innovative culture from that business is starting to flow over into other parts of our business, enabling us to look at very different solutions, particularly in the kind of modern methods of construction modular space for customers in the future. So that's really exciting. So it could be both. And as these solutions accelerate, as I say, from the kind of proof of concept now into the kind of scale up, we're going to keep a weather eye on what capability we need to accelerate that growth. Competition risk of pricing becoming kind of weaponized in the market. We haven't seen it yet. We haven't seen it yet. We've been really, really clear along the way that we have chosen, particularly in our specialist businesses in Keyline and CCF, not to chase low-margin volume. But that's less about the dynamic changing now, that's just about actually choosing our customers and choosing those segments we wanted to play in diligently in the market. But we haven't seen evidence of that yet. That's not to say it couldn't happen, but we remain very competitive and the market as far as we can see at the moment, remains rational. Alan, do you want to pick up the credit account point?

On Toolstation U.K. Sam, I suppose the thing to remember is that our pricing to start with is cheaper than the competition. We've got an EDLP strategy, and we're not wavering from that. So I'm very comfortable with where we are. We don't see -- I think credit is important, but it's not the first thing that the Toolstation customer is looking for, what they're looking for is really high availability, an outstanding gap with a great click-and-collect offer. And then they're recognized as trade customers through the discount. So I think we're very comfortable with the package that we've put together overall for the trade customer.

Thank you, Sam. Fabulous. A real pleasure to see you all here today. Thank you for your questions, and thank you for listening. I'm happy to take any questions off-line with Alan or myself? Thank you, otherwise, refreshments outside, I think. Super. Thank you all.