Tryg A/S (TRYG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. My name is Gianandrea Roberti. I'm Head of Investor Relations at Tryg. We published our Q4 full year results earlier on this morning. And I have here with me Morten Hübbe, Group CEO; Barbara Plucnar Jensen, Group CFO; and Johan Kirstein Brammer, Group CCO. Morten, over to you.

Thank you, Gian, and good morning to all of you. We start on Slide 3, where we reported pretax for Q4 of more than DKK 1.2 billion, up some 23% compared to Q4 last year. Clearly, technical result is slightly better, while most of the difference comes from the investment return. When we look at the technical result of the fourth quarter, it is 3.4% up year-on-year, whereas the full year technical result is up 8% year-on-year. Underlying claims for Q4 improved 20 basis points for Private and 60 basis points for the Group, in line with recent developments. In addition, large claims and weather claims are below normal, and we see an impact of the lower economic activity. Investment income was more than DKK 500 million in the quarter, well above the normalized level. Equity markets performed very strongly in the last quarter, increasing by some 14%. We are paying a quarterly dividend of around DKK 1.75 per share, bringing the full dividend -- full year dividend per share to DKK 7. Solvency at year-end of a 183%. And we really see that Tryg's business model has been very resilient in 2020, despite a difficult Q1, offset by a good recovery in all remaining quarters, and we see that our dividend policy remains supportive of TryghedsGruppen's membership owners. Last but clearly not least, we have announced a transformative acquisition in November following the recommended offer for RSA. Tryg's shareholders and RSA's shareholders have now both approved the deal with very, very strong majority, and we will have more details on this throughout the presentation. If we look at Slide 4, we elaborate a bit on the technical results for Q4, which was DKK 780 million or some 2.4% higher than the fourth quarter the year before. And as mentioned, the full year is up some 8% year-on-year. For the quarter, we clearly believe that the technical result of DKK 780 million in what is usually a seasonally difficult quarter, shows that the business is very healthy. The result has been driven by a strong performance, in particularly the Private and Commercial segment, while the Corporate figures are hit by a high level of large claims in the quarter, some DKK 201 million or 3.5% on the combined ratio. And then bear in mind that on the 30th of December, we had a very large landslide in Norwegian, costing NOK 132 million for Tryg. On Slide 5, we're very pleased that we reached a TNPS score of 72 against our CMD target of 70, because we see that increasing our customer satisfaction improves our loyalty, our retention and keeps our expense ratio low. And particularly, reaching that in a year where most of our employees have been working from their kitchen table and where there's been an unusually high number of customer reactions, I think this is particularly a strong result. The number of products per customer increased from 3.6 to 3.9. We did not exactly reach our target of 4 products per customer, close, but no [indiscernible]. But we saw that, particularly our high sales in the car dealer channel in Norway in [indiscernible], have pulled the number of products per customer down as this is a single product distribution. We have, however, seen that our up selling in Norway to single car customers is improving, and we will continue to focus on upselling to these customers. TryghedsGruppen paid the bonus to Danish customers at the end of September, beginning of October. And as expected, we saw a significant increase in the awareness among particularly non customers in Q4 with an increase of 18% compared to the same period the year before. On Slide 6, we elaborate on the COVID-19 impact, which coincidentally has had almost no impact to the gross figures for the full year. We saw, of course, a significant negative impact in the first quarter for travel insurance, and then we've seen gradual improvement in the following quarters due to lower economic activity in society. For the full year, we had a net positive impact due entirely to our travel reinsurance program. It is worth noting that it is the first time in 10 years that we've had a positive impact from our reinsurance for travel insurance. I guess it might be another 10 years before we see that again. From a customer point of view, I think very importantly, we actually saw additionally 250,000 phone calls due to COVID-19, and we saw some 100,000 more claims due to COVID-19, and we're extremely pleased that we've been able to help our customers in this difficult period. As you can see from the graph, there's been some lines of business where impact by COVID-19 has been higher than others, and also some different developments between Denmark and Norway. But for the big lines of business, we've seen an increase in the number of claims of approximately 5% but also reflecting a similar growth in the business throughout the year. On Slide 7, we are happy to see that the synergies from Alka continues to be delivered according to plan. And for Q4, DKK 46 million was achieved in synergies. We are still very confident that we will achieve the promised synergies related to the Alka acquisition. And we see underneath that the core of Alka continues to perform very strongly both when it comes to top line growth, customer satisfaction and improving the bottom line even further. On Slide 8, we elaborate on the strategic initiatives and happy to see that all strategic initiatives, which are significant drivers for reaching the technical result target was met, continue to harvest synergies from gradually using and extending our procurement power, improving our claims handling and improving our use of data while also benefiting from using Alka methodologies in other areas. Continue to see a strong focus on developing new products and services. 3 years ago, we targeted $1 billion in new sales for product and services. We reached DKK 1.06 billion, which I think we should be particularly proud of also given that through that, we are actually growing the market as such. In the digital part of our strategy, we reached DKK 120 million against a target of DKK 100 million. We also managed to meet our stake through processing targets, very important for the future, with 51% against a target of 50% amongst other things, through capitalizing on our claim system across Denmark and Norway. We also reached our self-service targets, even though it looked a little challenging in the middle of the year because we saw that, yes, customers were using our self-service solutions, but actually, they were still calling and using the phone in addition. We saw that due to further new self-service solutions, we managed to reach our target. But honestly, we are also very pleased that customers keeps on contacting us on the phone. We also managed to meet the targets for distribution efficiency with DKK 175 million against a target of DKK 150 million, and both Private and Commercial introducing new independent agents, one of many successful and important initiatives to reach this target. So when we look in the rear mirror on Slide 9, on the past 3 years, financial targets, we're very pleased that we have reached and met all of the financial targets launched at our Capital Markets Day in 2017. The technical result target of DKK 3.3 billion was exceeded at DKK 3.495 billion. Our expense ratio target of around 14% was met with 14.1%. Our combined ratio target at or below 86% was reached, and more than met, with 84.5%. And even though we suspended our ROE target in the spring, when we saw unprecedented capital markets volatility, we actually reached an ROE of 22.5% post-tax and more than the original target of at or above 21%. As you probably noticed, we've moved the Capital Markets Day from January 21 to the Autumn as we'd like to be able to form a new strategy and new financial targets, including the Codan Norwegian business and the Swedish Trygg-Hansa business and of course, the related synergies, assuming that the acquisition is completed and will get all the necessary authorizations in place. It would have been natural to give new targets for 2023. But given that this will be completed in the Autumn of '21, we expect to give targets for the year 2024 instead, which also coincides with the year where we have the peak of the synergies in the acquisition. On Slide 10, we keep on having a very, very strong focus on shareholder remuneration, which is key to our investment case and will be so in the future. We are pleased that in a turbulent year, we've been able to continue our positive dividend development, paying a Q4 dividend of DKK 1.7, bringing the full year dividend to DKK 7 after having paid DKK 5.25 in November. This is, in fact, the ninth year in a row where we are increasing our dividend per share. And of course, the dividend continues to support TryghedsGruppen's membership bonus and the overall activities of Tryghed net spend some DKK 650 million a year in charitable and prevention-like activities. And over to you, Johan, on RSA.

Thank you so much, Morten. And on Page 11, we will double-click a bit on the recommended offer for RSA. So the next 3 slides are essentially recapping the November announcement related to the recommended offer for RSA and it is a transformational acquisition for Tryg, which will create the largest Scandinavian non-life insurer, diversifying both our top line and our earnings of the company. We disclosed in November that we have identified DKK 900 million worth of synergies to be delivered by 2024, and that still stands. Shareholders of Tryg and RSA have already approved the deal, as well as antitrust authorities in Norway and Sweden. We still expect the deal to close in Q2 2021, while we anticipate to move ahead with the rights issue during the spring. Slide 12 just recaps some of the points previously expressed and shows the size of Tryg, new market shares and new pro forma technical result diversification once the acquisition is completed. We've shown this slide in November presentation also. So I'll not spend too much time on it, maybe just highlight the uplift in gross premiums of around 45%, the uplift in technical result of around 100% and the #3 market positions we will obtain in Sweden and Norway. Moving on to Slide 13. And by that, the financial rationale behind the proposed acquisition. We have, as mentioned, identified synergies of DKK 900 million per annum to be delivered fully by 2024. Approximately 80% of these are cost related which covers operating expenses and claims, including procurement. And the knowledge and expertise we gained from the Alka acquisition in 2018 gives us great confidence in our ability to realize the full synergy potential. The transaction will generate an ROI around 7% and a high teens EPS accretion in 2023. And it is important to highlight that the full run rate synergies will be reached in 2024, further improving the financial metrics from here on. We expect to report a solvency ratio above 170 at the end of 2021, which we see as a robust level, considering that we will complete the most, but not all transaction-related costs in 2021. Finally, we clearly aim at remaining a core dividend stock and this proposed transaction does not alter that. Our earnings capacity will virtually double, and therefore, longer term, we expect our dividend capacity to follow a similar trajectory. And for that, I'll hand over to you, Morten, for a detailed outlook.

Thank you, Johan. And on Slide 14, we're publishing a detailed outlook for 2021, not something we've done historically. Not something we'll do in the future either, but for a onetime only. As we've reached all of our financial targets for 2020, but we've not published new ones and we have postponed our CMD to the Autumn. So we bring a more detailed outlook for the year 2021. But please note that going forward, that is in future annual reports, we will refer to the new Capital Markets Day targets for 2024, and we will not publish annual earnings guidance. But for 2021, we see a standalone technical result between DKK 3.3 billion and DKK 3.7 billion. The range largely driven by the natural volatility in large and weather claims, and the guidance for investment and other income and cost is unchanged to previously. Relating specifically to RSA, you can see in the annual report that we've published the last 3 years of earnings and geography split from RSA in the Nordic countries. Now bear in mind that these geographical numbers is taken from the SFCR report, which for instance, means that [indiscernible] in Denmark and [indiscernible] in Sweden are not included in these geographical earnings numbers and should indeed be added. We continue to expect some DKK 4.4 billion of transaction costs. Most of these will be booked in '21, but some will end up in '22, as is required by accounting principles. We also explained that some of the costs will hit the P&L, while others will be on the balance sheet. Additionally, all transaction costs are not necessarily tax deductible apart from restructuring. We continue to expect a healthy solvency ratio of above 170 as per year-end '21, as we communicated previously. Last but surely not least, we expect to pay dividends between DKK 2.6 billion and DKK 3 billion in '21, which is well above the 2020 level, which was also what we communicated in November with the shaded bar in '21 being higher than 2020. A new Capital Markets Day date will be announced later in the year, but it will be an Autumn event. And who knows, maybe we might even be allowed to have you. So back to you, Johan, on premiums.

Thanks, Morten, and I will jump into Slide 16, where you can all see that top line growth was 7.4%, driven by growth in all segments. And Private being the most profitable and least capital consuming area and therefore, we are very satisfied with the growth in this segment of 9%. The growth in this quarter is a continuation of what we've seen in the last quarters. And again, we see very high-growth in Norway, while still somewhat lower growth in Denmark, primarily due to profit sharing with partners booked under bonus and premium rebates. Adjusting for the high level of premium rebates, growth would have been 7.4% instead of 4.1% for Private Denmark. We continue to see a strong development in Denmark with cross-selling and sales through our strong partner agreements with FDM, Danske Bank, but also from our independent sales agents. In Norway, we've seen a very strong sales performance, in particularly the car channel, NITO and OBOS, but also an increased level of cross-selling. Furthermore, in Norway, we were also helped by financial troubles of smaller competitors that had to stop their activities during the year. Commercial had a growth of 7.2%, which was a combination of organic growth in Denmark and in no way driven by price increases for larger commercial customers. And Corporate showed a slightly positive growth with 2% and was impacted by price hikes in Norway and a reduction in the portfolio, while the Danish corporate portfolio was positively impacted due to high acceptance of price increases, around 10%. And also in Sweden, we saw high acceptance of price adjustments. Sweden showed a growth of 5.6%, driven primarily by price initiatives in motor to improve profitability, but also strong sales for the inbound and niche channels for boat and motor insurance. If we look at Slide 17, adjusting prices in accordance with claims inflation is very important and a key focus area for us, and we, therefore, closely monitor the development in average prices. Profitability improvement is a combination of claims initiatives and price adjustments. And the average price development is also impacted by changes in large partner agreements. And in Q2 2020, we saw a drop in the average price per house in Norway, which can be ascribed to a reduction in prices for a very big partner agreement constituting approximately 1/4 of the portfolio for Private Norway. This also impacts the development in Q4 2020, and therefore, low average increase in price per house in Norway. Moving on to Slide 18. Customer focus is extremely important and customers' view of Tryg is best monitored through the retention rates. For Private Denmark, we see, as expected, a drop in the retention rate as a consequence of a drop in the Nordea portfolio. We are satisfied that we have a net positive impact when looking at the Nordea and Danske Bank portfolio due to very strong sales to Danske Bank customers. But the new sale does not impact the retention level. Excluding Nordea, retention rate was almost unchanged, but slightly impacted by the high inflow of new customers in the last years, which always have a higher churn in the first few years. In Norway, we are very satisfied that we continue to see an improved development with the highest retention level in 10 years. And for Commercial, we saw a slight improvement for Norway despite high level of price adjustments and in Denmark, the retention rate was flat for the Commercial business. And with that, I will hand over to you, Barbara, for claims and expenses.

Thank you very much, Johan, and good morning to you all. On Slide 20, you can see the development of the underlying claims ratio, which continued the trend seen in previous quarters. Group underlying claims ratio improved by 60 basis points and Private by 20 basis points. Please remember that when we look at these numbers, the underlying claims ratio does not include the impact from COVID-19 claims. The main drivers of the improvement are price adjustments and the claims excellence program, including claims synergies related to Alka. The strong growth in our private business had, as expected, a modest negative impact on the underlying claims ratio as new customers, in general, have a frequency approximately 3% higher than the portfolio in general. We're very satisfied that we can see that, in particular, the initiatives in Corporate Norway support the improved underlying claims ratio. And in parallel, we also see an improved profitability in the Danish and Swedish Corporate business, which Johan just described. Please turn to Slide 21. COVID-19 is continuing to have a huge impact on our lives, and we have included this slide to provide you some background information on the development of COVID-19 cases in Denmark and Norway specifically. In the fourth quarter, the situation deteriorated, and we have seen a high increase in the number of cases in both countries. In Scandinavia, the lockdowns in March were mild compared to most other European countries, and this is still the case for the situation now. Since December, new restrictions have been enforced, the financial aid packages continue to play an important role and vaccination programs have been initiated across the Nordics and for now restrictions are set to last till end of January for Norway and the 7th of February for Denmark, but this is for now. Please turn to Slide 16, and I'll go through the financial impact in more detail. As Morten mentioned earlier in the presentation, the total gross impact from insurance was close to 0 however, after reinsurance for travel, we had a positive impact of approximately DKK 140 million. The financial markets have recovered fully in 2020, so we do not include these as part of the COVID-19 impact. One of the main points from this table is that lower frequency for especially motor, property and accident had a positive impact, mitigating the loss on travel insurance. In the third and fourth quarter of 2020, we also had a smaller impact from a number of large claims in Tryg Garanti reported under other. In general, Tryg has a very extensive reinsurance program, and therefore, a low-risk in this area. Hence, our business model has proven to be resilient in circumstances like this. Please turn to Slide 23. Due to a high level of large claims in the corporate area, Q4 of last year had a much higher level compared to Q4 2019. The overall level of large claims for 2020 was around DKK 500 million against an expected level of DKK 550 million. Weather claims were also at a much higher level in Q4 2020 compared to Q4 2019 with a total of DKK 148 million. This was primarily due to the landslide in Norway, which had an impact of approximately DKK 100 million. For the full year, weather claims were more than 11% lower than in 2019 with a total of DKK 369 million against DKK 416 million in 2019. What is worthwhile noting is that both these years have ended lower than our expected annual level of DKK 600 million. The discounting impact in Q4 '20 was much lower than in the same period prior year due to the generally lower interest rate levels. When comparing the current interest rates to the levels experienced when presenting the CMD target in November 2017 for the year of 2020, the lower interest rates have had a negative impact of approximately DKK 200 million. Finally, the runoff result was somewhat higher with 5.5% in the fourth quarter 2020 of the combined ratio compared to 4.7% in Q4 '19. However, for the full year 2020, the runoff was somewhat lower with 5.1% compared to the full year 2019 with 5.5%. Please turn to Slide 24 regarding the expense ratio development. The expense ratio for the fourth quarter was 14%, and for the full year, it ended at 14.1%, fully in line with the target for 2020 of around 14%. In Q4, expenses were positively impacted by a lower level of travel-related expenses, but a higher level of expenses related to distribution, particularly in Private Norway, where we have experienced very high growth. The result is that we continue to see that more efficient distribution to a large degree continues to finance our IT investments. Given the good momentum and hence, higher business volumes and a decision to in-source certain IT resources, we also saw a slightly higher number of employees in the fourth quarter. If you turn to Slide 26, you will see our usual investment slides, including the split of our DKK 40.5 billion of investments. The free portfolio is the capital of the company and amounts to DKK 12.4 billion, whereas the match portfolio, which is matching our insurance reserves, amounts to DKK 28.1 billion. The overall asset mix is virtually unchanged. On Slide 27, we have included an overview of the movements in the fourth quarter. Capital markets continued to perform very strongly, and our total investment result was a record DKK 513 million in the year. This is almost 5x the normalized annual result. Following an extremely challenging first quarter, we have seen that a very robust recovery has followed in the remaining part of the year where Q4 mentioned on a high note -- ended the year on a high note. In Q4, the free portfolio benefited from equities returning more than 14%. And corporate and emerging market bonds, two relatively small asset classes for Tryg also delivered strong returns. The match portfolio posted a small positive result, thanks to a modest narrowing of Nordic-covered bond spreads. Other financial income and expenses was less negative than normal due to a periodization of costs between quarters. On Slide 28, you have details behind our solvency position at the end of the quarter where Tryg reports a capital solvency ratio of 183%. Own funds were in this quarter primarily impacted by: one, the reported net profit; two, the deduction of the full year dividend, including the 9 months dividend per share, which we announced and paid in November as well as the Q4 dividends to be paid on January 29; and three, a positive development in relevant currencies, which increased the value of our subordinated loans in the balance sheet, thereby helping the own funds. The SCR moved upwards, driven by the higher capital requirements for equities driven by the market rise in Q4. In general, leaving aside market movements, Tryg solvency ratio should remain stable and predictable as it is primarily a function of profits and dividends. Please turn to Slide 29. Adjusted for the dividend payments, this last slide is pretty much unchanged to past quarters. Our debt capacity is more or less unchanged. Currently, we have a haircut of approximately DKK 150 million on our Tier 2 funds, while we have a modest capacity of around DKK 250 million of Tier 1 funds. On Slide 30, we have now added a new slide with details on solvency, which shows the buildup of the SCR and provides a little bit more detail on the component of the market risk model. As we have previously disclosed, we only use our internal model on the insurance risk, meaning non-life and health, whereas all the rest is on the standard formula. In the chart at the bottom right, it should not be a surprise that equities with a higher capital charge and spread risk with covered bonds being our biggest asset class by far are the 2 biggest components of the market risk. On Slide 31, we're showing the solvency ratio in a long-term perspective. I would like to highlight the stability of the figures in general, bearing in mind the dividend payments as well as leaving aside the capital increase related to the acquisition for Alka. Finally, on Slide 32, our last slide on solvency, we show the sensitivities to our Solvency II movements in capital markets. Note -- and nothing new to report here. The biggest sensitivity remains to be the spread risk, which stems from the fact that the vast majority of our fixed income instruments are covered bonds due to our matching methodology. Overall, we believe our solvency ratio is rather robust when it comes to sensitivity to movements in the capital markets. With this, I'd like to hand over to Morten, to end our presentation today.

Thank you, Barbara. And on Slide 33, we reiterate the outlook for the year, completely in line with what we showed in the beginning of the presentation. We just wanted to repeat the main moving parts of the year that will be somewhat different from the relatively boring and stable track. And then bear in mind that we will indeed return to using 3-year targets at the CMD in the Autumn, where we will give out targets for 2024. And as always, we finish off at our favorite quote on Slide 34 from John D. Rockefeller on dividends. And with that, we are ready to take your questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Asbjørn Mørk of Danske Bank.

I have a couple. One relating to your guidance for 2021. And I'm glad to see your guidance, glad to see that it's going to be a onetime event. But anyway, if I take your 2020 numbers, and I just pull weather, large and runoffs, we're basically down to around DKK 3.2 billion of technical profits because after all, Q4 was not that benign, but in general, 2020 was. If I pick the midrange of your new guidance, so DKK 3.5 billion, and take your assumptions for large and weather and use the midrange on new runoffs, I get to around DKK 3.7 billion of, you could say, underlying technical profits for 2021. If I then add growth and I add Alka, it's still around 80 basis points improvement to the underlying claims ratio, it appears. And then I don't know what kind of assumption you put in for COVID-19, but I guess that will be some sort of headwind for 2021. So I'm getting closer to 100, 120 basis points improvement. So I'm just basically trying to understand what you see as the building blocks for the DKK 3.5 billion mid-range for 2021, and I guess we can call it a DKK 3.7 billion underlying.

Yes. Thank you for that, Asbjørn. I think the starting point should be that when you look at what we delivered in 2020, we did have some tailwinds in that year. You mentioned yourself adjusting for large and weather claims, you also point out the effects of COVID. But as we went through in the presentation, it's also important to bear in mind the impact of the interest rate levels and the currencies that actually gives us, you can say, some extra to deliver. So in general, that's something that you need to adjust the 2020 delivery on. So if you look at it, I would actually say the outlook that we give for 2021 with a range between DKK 3.3 billion to DKK 3.7 billion, I would say, taking into account the volatility that we have seen and experienced on large and weather claims, it's probably fair to start with the midpoint of EUR 3.5 billion, which also takes into account the continued improvement of Alka and the underlying claims ratio development that we expect to continue to improve. We don't take into account any particular COVID-19 impact for 2021 because we simply don't know how it will impact our business throughout the year.

But then I simply just don't understand the lift to the technical profits for 2021. If you have around DKK 141 million of headwinds, which more or less will be offset by Alka, but then we're still showing quite a decent growth if we adjust for the -- for weather, large and runoffs. And I guess, discounting, as it looks right now, is going to be more or less neutral for [ 21 versus 20 ] basis points, right?

Yes. But I think you should see this -- again, we give the guidance with the range. So we allow for the volatility in those large items because as you've seen historically, in the last couple of years, we have benefited from lower-than-anticipated weather and large claims, but we have also seen years with significant larger claims in this area. So we need to allow ourselves to have a little bit of wiggle room when we do it 1 year at a time.

No, I fully understand the range, and nobody knows how big the large claims and weather claims will be. But I was just more wondering the mid-range which I guess should be, when you say DKK 3.3 billion to DKK 3.7 billion, I guess, DKK 3.5 billion should be what we would aim for. And then you're expecting quite high large claims and weather claims and quite low runoff claims compared to 2020. And so that will give you a lot of headwinds. So I'm just really wondering how you can deliver that underlying -- or maybe if I can ask another way, do you see upside in 2021 to the 60 basis point underlying claims ratio improvement that you're delivering at the moment. Should we expect that to be more than 60 basis points for 2021 when we adjust for Alka?

No, I think the 60 basis points is a good starting point. And then as we've talked about, Alka will be doubled compared to what we had anticipated in the DKK 3.3 billion. The run rate is expected to be DKK 300 million in '21 compared to the expected DKK 150 million we had embedded in the target for 2020.

Bear in mind Asbjørn, that of course, we see a healthy top line growth in the Retail business in Private and in Commercial. And of course, with that comes a higher technical result in addition to the underlying improvement and what we see as a current run rate of around 60 basis points. But the reality is, if you look at the volatility of large claims and weather claims, they can easily deviate DKK 300 million in a year. If you look at the volatility from interest and currency, that can easily deviate DKK 200 million, DKK 300 million per year as well. And that's why, honestly, we see that 3-year target has much more value in terms of guiding what we're trying to achieve than a more detailed 1 year guidance, which really can be impacted by a number of these rather volatile factors and doesn't really give you a very good picture of how the underlying business is developing. But now you have the full year guidance and then by the Autumn, you have a 3-year guidance instead.

Okay. I actually had adjusted for growth in my 82 to 100 basis point improvement. But anyway, progress is good. So let's hope that we continue that. So okay. Just 1 question on the dividend for '21 and the whole -- the DKK 4.4 billion of transaction costs and the tax element of this. So now you mentioned DKK 2.9 billion is not tax deductible. You didn't give us any quantified number at November, but it sounds like this is less -- I mean, you got to have lower tax deductibility than you thought in November. Is that sort of correctly understood?

Yes. I think we have got more clarity on some of the items that we had back at the time of the announcement of the deal.

Okay. Fair enough. And then a question on the RSA deal. First, on the amortization that you mentioned on the intangibles. So I guess this means that you have identified non goodwill intangibles of something like DKK 6 billion to DKK 8 billion, if you're going to amortize over 10 years. Is that correct? And how much do you expect in total intangible assets? And then in connection with that, the DKK 900 million of synergies for 2024, could you just remind me how much of that relates to the Codan Denmark business?

To start with, if we look at the intangibles, I don't think we have provided any guidance on the total number. So what we guide is that we expect the range between the DKK 600 million to DKK 800 million to impact our numbers from 2022. So that is, you can say, what we need to adjust for in the results going forward. Regarding the synergies, I think it's important to highlight that we don't take any impact from Codan Denmark. We have synergies related to the current, you can say, organization with the regional setup they have. But otherwise, what we have included in our synergy is relating to the Swedish and Norwegian business. I don't know, Johan, if you have further comments to that?

No, that's correct. The majority is coming -- of the synergies are coming out of Sweden and Norway. There's a little plot coming out of Denmark and Group, but it's not Codan Denmark, is our own Tryg operation in Denmark and Group services delivered out of our operation here. There will be no interaction or synergy reaping in Codan Denmark at all from our side.

All right. Those are very clear. So just a follow-up on the intangibles. You are going to amortize over 10 years, right?

Yes. That's the current assumption, yes.

Our next question is from Jakob Brink of Nordea.

Just on the dividends, now you say, DKK 2.6 to DKK 3 billion in 2021. Could you maybe help us understand how would the dividend path be looking after 2021? I'm especially thinking if you're mentioning -- or you did mention the high teens EPS accretion by 2023. Should we see the dividend accretion in the same way? That was the first question, please.

Jakob, I think that's an excellent question, which we're not going to answer. But I think we're looking at a very, very healthy dividend outlook. Clearly, 2021 will be this sort of strange year where we will only own the assets for a shorter period. We will have more shares after the rights issue, but only for part of the year, et cetera. But when you look, as you say, beyond 2021, we are looking at a pro forma doubling of the earnings capacity. No doubt that we will also, looking into 2024, have ambitions for the development of the business and therefore, the results. And as Johan put it, we will, all other things equal, be able to double our dividend capacity. I think you'll have to wait until the Capital Markets Day to be more specific on how will the years until '24 develop, how will the dividends develop. But a roughly doubling of the dividend capacity is what we're communicating. I think that's very, very positive. And you'll hear the more detailed version of that when we have our Capital Markets Day in the Autumn.

And I guess the doubling that by '24 or '23, maybe it's a part of that?

'24.

Okay. And then the next question, just on the time line. Is it on purpose, I guess, it is that you have approval in Q2 '21 and rights issue in H1 '21? Should I read that as if the rights issue happens before the approval? Or can I not read that into it?

I think what you should read into it is that, obviously, we want to have our financing in place in order to be able to close the deal. We don't have full visibility or control on the regulatory approvals, which is the outstanding item as it is. But we will decide on a, you can say, a comfortable time to launch the rights issue as we look into the coming months.

But you will be -- in the second where you get the approval, will Tryg then take over the risk of Codan? Because then, of course, the money needs to be there? Or could there be some interim phase after the approval where RSA will still be carrying the risk?

I think you should anticipate that we want to have the financing in place in order to take over the assets at the time of the approval because that is when we will see the closing of the deal.

Okay. Very clear. Then the third question on Codan Denmark. Could it be a scenario where Tryg will actually keep as part of the mid-market or large corporate industrial part of Codan Denmark's business, which I guess won't be too much of an issue from an antitrust point of view? Or will all of it be sold?

I think [indiscernible]. And we're very clear that Tryg will drive the operations. Tryg will drive 100% all strategic decisions including all dialogue with competition authorities. We are extremely happy with the market position we have currently in Denmark, and we've not wished to tempt or make more challenging the process by testing if we should own part of Codan Denmark or remain with part of a segment or a business going forward. That would have made the whole thing much more complicated and it would potentially have jeopardized the entirety of the transaction. So no, we do not believe that, that is a likely path, Jakob.

Okay. And then last question from my side, on the weather claims in Q4. If I adjust for the impact of the landslide, then weather claims in Q4 was very, very low, right? I can't, in my model at least, that it has ever been that low. Is that just a coincidence? Or is it something related to COVID, which I can't see? Or what exactly happened here? Or is there any -- I guess, what I'm asking, is there any risk that due to some changed patterns, people just haven't found out yet that their cabins that had a water leak in Q4, and you'll get it back in Q1 or something like that?

I think, to be honest, Jakob, you can blame COVID for a lot of things, but I don't think that the weather is one of them. So this is simply due to the climate that we have experienced. And as you've seen in the Nordics in the last couple of years, it has been very mild Q4 and Q1 that we have experienced. We have then, on the other hand, also experienced snow in Norway in Q2 last year. So it's more down to climate change or at least climate impact at this moment, but I would not relate that to COVID in any shape or form.

And honestly, it's tempting to adjust the weather claims forecast downwards because we've seen several years with lower weather claims. But the reality is still when we look further backwards then we see some years where weather claims were substantially above also the expected or normal. But it is clearly -- we are clearly into a period with a very positive trend on weather claims.

Our next question is from Mads Thinggaard of ABG.

I'm Mads from ABG here. The first one is on the high premium growth. And I just wondered here if you could help a bit with the premium growth outlook for 2021 for Tryg on a stand-alone basis.

Mads, I think we've never really given a premium growth outlook. And I guess it's because growth -- top line growth as such is never a target in its own right, but it's a means to create a stronger business that creates earnings growth. But what is quite important and clear to see is that we have a strong momentum at the moment. We saw in the fourth quarter, a top line premiums growth of 7.4%. We see that very positively. So it's particularly driven by our Private and Commercial SME business, whereas we have negative growth in Corporate Norway, slightly positive in Corporate Denmark and net-net close to 0 and Corporate total. So we have a very positive momentum where I would say that the Private Norway growth is higher than what is likely longer term. We are looking at around 12% in the fourth quarter. That is unusually high, driven, of course, by the new strong partnership agreements as well as a very strong development in our retention rate and then we've talked about for long wanting to increase the amount of new products sold in Private Norway, and that is actually now starting to happen, again, lifting up the growth. We've seen in Private Denmark, a growth of around 7% in the quarter, actually being pulled down a bit by the higher than usual premium discounts. Actually before that, we're above 8%. And that has been the case for a longer period of time. So I think when you look at the outlook, I would expect a continuation of high-growth in private lines. Expect the number in Private Norway to fall down somewhat, but more stability in the Danish number, but they were both behind and continuation of a positive development also in Commercial Denmark top line growth. And then it's fair to say that in Commercial Norway, the focus is really more on increasing prices than focusing on growth. And then I think we'll continue to have a close to 0% growth in Corporate, in total pulling down the average. But I think very strong momentum at the moment, and we expect that to continue into the new year.

Okay. Great. That was quite clear. And actually, my second question is a bit on the bonus and premium discounts that you also touched a bit upon because, I mean, I got the impression that there were a large accumulation effect Q4 last year with DKK 224 million in these discounts. But it seems it's actually higher with DKK 240 million here in Q4 this year. Is there something -- I mean, is there an accumulation effect again this year that was unexpected or something unusual in this DKK 240 million number?

I think the short answer is no. But we see -- we do see a number of the underlying agreements with partners where the claims development is particularly strong. And we also see some differences in how the development of COVID has hit the various partner agreements, some with a lot of travel, some with very little travel. So the positives and negatives of COVID-19 have hit the partner agreements slightly differently, and some of them very positively, resulting in higher than normal premium discounts. So that's the main development underneath.

Okay. So it's above normal? That is -- I mean yes...

It's above a normal run rate because we've seen particularly strong underlying development. But again, I would say, if we look into the future, hopefully, it's not the last time we see a very strong underlying development in the various partner agreements. So basically, when we see these impacts, it's a positive because it's a signal of sharing some of the strong claims development with some of the partners. And as we continue to create better and better results, in Private, we will see periods where this happens but it is above a historical normal.

Our next question is from Jonathan Denham of Morgan Stanley. We'll move on to the next question. Our next question is from Per Grønborg of SEB.

A few questions from my side. New dividend guidance, DKK 2.6 billion to DKK 3 billion, taking into account that you need to issue a number of shares bringing your share count to [ 900 million ] before any dilution or before any discount. This implies that where you're on Page 2 of your [indiscernible] saying that you have the ambition to pay an increasing ordinary dividend. Your guidance -- your new guidance must imply that the ordinary dividend will be down [ 21 ] or [ 20 ] per share. Is that a fair way of looking at your numbers?

I think that as we put it, it will be a slightly unusual year in the sense that in some periods, we will own the current assets and in some periods, we will own the new assets, but only part of the year. We'll have to take a part the countries, which will actually only happen in the Spring of '22. And only in some periods, we will have the large amount of shares. I think in many acquisition cases, you would not pay a dividend at all in a year like this. For us, it's been very important to pay a clear and strong dividend but you're right that the dividend per share growth will be resumed in the coming years and not in the year of '21 as such.

I'm not complaining. I just want to be sure that I read your guidance...

So that is -- we see more moving parts than usual in a year like '21.

It makes totally sense to cut EPS because you won't have the earnings for the full year. So that context, I just wanted to be sure that I read your guidance correctly. On the deal, the timing has been addressed a couple of times on the next step. When you look at the guarantee agreement with the banks, you have to start taking an additional fee if you haven't fully -- haven't finalized share issue by beginning of April. What is the timing? What are you waiting for to launch the share issue? Or is this solely to get the full year numbers you published today into the prospectus then we could expect this to run within the next 1 or 1.5 months?

I think in general, Per, I think it's important to highlight also, as Morten has mentioned a few times, but there is a lot of complexity in this year. We are looking into a closing of a global deal, where it is not just an audit geographies that needs to be in place. We need to have regulatory approvals for the global view. So that also includes, let's say, jurisdictions like over U.K. We need, of course, to follow that very closely in terms of progress and in terms of expected final approvals of all these interactions. And then obviously, we need to take that into account when we decide when we go for the financing. So there's quite a few moving bits, you can say, at this point of time in the process. And obviously, if there are added costs to the underwriting, that's one thing, but also bear in mind, if you raise the financing, it needs to be in an account at a negative rate, that is also a cost. So there's a lot of pros and cons that you need to take into account when deciding what is the appropriate timing for launching the actual rights issue.

I'm sorry, I was just going to add that, of course, there's also the practicality of making sure that we have access to the right accounting data from RSA in the right windows to do the rights issue. And then most likely, some of the authority approvals will still be outstanding when we do the rights issue, but we would like to see that to have come as far as possible. So it's putting all of that into the same cocktail and then making sure we make the best possible decision in terms of timing.

So what you are promising, more or less, is that we will get additional data on the business you're acquiring in the prospectus?

I would think that's a fairly right assumption, yes. There are some obligations also in terms of what we need to disclose in the prospectus.

Of course. My final question. Norway combined ratio on a country basis, Q4, pretty far from impressive, extremely far from what we saw against the report last week. Any comments?

I think 1 comment is that mirroring against the Norwegian combined ratios would be fantastic. So I think that would be a great aspiration. I'm not sure it would be very likely, but thought it would be great. I think if you ask them to mirror our Danish combined ratios, that would be a good aspiration for them as well. But all kidding aside, clearly, what we saw, we saw the land flight -- we saw 2 things in Q4. We saw a significant property claim in Corporate Norway. And so Corporate Norway was looking really great for the full year until we saw that large property claim in Q4. And secondly, we saw on the 30th of December, this really tragic landslide in Gjerdrum in Norway, hitting actually all 3 business segments in Norway. And for Tryg, the impact was NOK 132 million, which is a very sizable impact to the total combined ratio of Norway, some 6 percentage points or so as far as I can see. And also a claim which caused the evacuation of more than 1,000 people. And actually, 10 people died, and it was really quite a tragic event. So those 2, Per, were a bit on the stochastic side and both hit Q4 and both hit Norway.

Our next question is from Steven Haywood of HSBC.

Just a couple of questions. On your 2021 investment income guidance of DKK 0 to DKK 200 million, the 0 part of it just seems a bit wrong when you are normalizing for investment returns. Can you provide any more information on why you've hit the bottom of the range of 0, please?

Yes. I think a very fair question when you see -- you can see the development that we have experienced in the fourth quarter last year. But if you look back in time and if you look, you can say, on a regular basis, you can be in a position where it is not the levels that we have seen last year that apply. And that's sort of why we put out the range of DKK 0 to DKK 200 million. I think the key point is also for us that the core focus is on our core insurance business. That's where we focus, that's where we have, you can say, a very strong opinion on our results. But in some shape, you can say that the investment results are a little bit out of our hands. We have our investment profile, which we are happy with. But as such, I think 2020 is a testimony to how dependent you are on the actual sentiment in the market in terms of what we deliver.

Okay. And then just finally for me. You said earlier that new customers have a 3% higher claims frequency. Can you sort of give any more information how this develops from year 1 onwards? So in year 2, does it come down to a 2% higher claims frequency? And year 3, down to 1% or something like that? Or do you take into consideration that after year 1, these customers will be having additional products added on, and so therefore, the claims frequency comes down as a consequence of being a bundled customer?

I think, of course, very relevant question if we can sort of put a mathematical projection on it. But you can say it all depends on what are the new customers you take in? Are they single product customers? Do they come in with a portfolio from a partnership agreement? Or what is, you can say, their entry point? So you will see quite a key dynamics over time. The 3% is a guidance because we can see historically that, that is the trend that we have been experiencing and continue to see. And you should expect like a gradual improvement, but it all depends a little bit on the profile of the new business that we've taken.

Our next question is from Martin Gregers Birk of Carnegie.

Two questions, both in relation to the RSA transaction. I guess the first one is that we have seen a number of antitrust approvals now intact as we received one in Canada. You have received one in Norway and Sweden. But I have not seen any filing in Denmark yet. And if I go on the [indiscernible] website, I can't see it in there either. So could you please give us an update on where you are on Denmark? And what's -- is there any time line for an approval? That will be my first question.

I think the best way to answer that is to say that the dialogue has been initiated with the Danish antitrust authorities. It's driven by our Canadian partner, Intact. And the process is in motion, and we still expect the deal to close in Q2. This is a very dissimilar process to the one we saw when we went through the Alka motions. This is an acquisition where we are essentially at Tryg a financial host. If anything, we have no controlling interest in Codan Denmark, whatsoever. And we believe that Intact will go through this filing of the motion and approval so we can close the deal in Q2.

But why do you think they haven't filed yet? I mean it seems weird that the transaction has been ongoing for so long and one of sort of the key antitrust approvals, they don't seem to have done anything about it, at least not on paper?

It's a very common methodology but it takes a little time before you formally file your application. So this is just according to plan and what we expected to be on. This is how it's normally done with antitrust authorities. So the date of filing is never the same as the date where you start the dialogue.

Yes. Okay. Very clear. And then on to another regulatory approval in the U.K., which I guess is still pending, and it's also an important one for Intact, what should we expect? What should we -- is there any time line on that approval? And in terms of COVID-19, is there any possible for a delay of U.K. antitrust approval?

I think in general, as Johan was saying before, we have all the processes started and initiated. Again, the dialogue with the PRA in the U.K. is a matter for Intact. And as Johan just described, there is a long process ahead of a formal filing, and that also applies to the U.K. market. But again, we haven't got any signals that, that will delay the closing. So all that is in process and moving forward with an anticipated closing in the second quarter.

Okay. Maybe just a follow-up on that. Because on the regulatory frontiers or antitrust frontiers, what kind of signal or what kind of probability would you have to put on an approval from Danish antitrust and U.K. antitrust before you are able to go forward with the rights issue?

I think it's not a matter of putting a percentage or a likelihood. It's a question of the general progress, and you can say how advanced the dialogue is with the various authorities. So there will be some kind of subjective judgment call when we decide to go to the market.

And I guess it's fair to say that authority approval, we need to be respectful that it takes time. And we need to be respectful about its several jurisdictions. And it is never as fast as you would like, and that's only natural. But we also know that it is more process and time than it is uncertainty. And we just need to respect and deal with the fact that, that takes time. And that's why we said closing expected in Q2. Pleased that we're seeing some of the approvals already, not unnatural that, for instance, the U.K. is one of the things in waiting because that is where you see more complexity. But it looks like Q2 is the right time frame. And then we just have to be a little bit more patient than we like. And that's as it always is.

I think if I can add a last comment, you asked if we see any impact of COVID-19, and the answer to that is no. The dialogue is taking place as it would, I would expect, if everyone were in the offices. So in this particular area, we don't see COVID-19 delaying or impacting the dialogue that is taking place in those jurisdictions as of now.

Our next question is from Li Dunlop of JPMorgan.

Just a quick follow-up to the regulatory updates you provided, which are very helpful. In your reference to the competition approvals, is the countries for the financial regulators, is that the same status of the antitrust like you've received? Sweden, Norway and U.K. and Denmark are outstanding. Is that correct?

No. We have a separate dialogue going on with the, you can say, the FSAs in the various countries. So that is a separate process that runs in parallel with the antitrust. But as such, I would say that the FSA approvals are more formalities than I would expect the antitrust. They are more focused on the actual business that we are taking over as such.

Okay. And have any been actually been received, approvals or they're all-in discussions?

There is -- as far as I'm updated, it's all in process. So we haven't received any formal approvals as of yet.

Our next question is from Paul Walsh of Field Gibson Media.

Just 3 from me, please. On the subject of the dividend and the decision made there, could you possibly talk about your justification behind the decision to [indiscernible] dividend. Secondly, obviously, we are still largely in a sort of remote working environment. So with that in mind, are there any operational risks you foresee about that environment continuing? And lastly, could you perhaps give some comment on your preparations for IFRS 17, please?

Let me take the first one. I think on the decision to pay a dividend, that decision was largely taken in December, where we accumulated 3 quarters of dividend to pay the DKK 5.25 for 9 months and then adding the DKK 1.75 for Q4 is a natural continuation of that and what we announced in December. I think in the bigger scheme of things, we discontinued the course of the dividends or suspended it in the spring of 2020 when the outlook was really tricky for the entire world. I think what we've seen throughout 2020 is that our business model is very resilient through the crisis, also COVID-19 crisis, and that our earnings ability and thereby also our dividend-paying ability has been unchanged. And that made it a fairly easy decision to resume paying dividends again. I think the operational risk -- I guess, the starting point was moving from 600, 700 people being able to work from home to getting to 7,000 connections because some employees needs to, that was the first and biggest operational risk. We managed that. Particularly difficult was to get the call centers up and running from home. I think in the U.K. market, that was a huge challenge for many insurance companies. And then, of course, it has enhanced the IT risk and security risk. So we spent quite a lot of money investing and further tightening our IT security to make sure that, that operational risk was handled well. I think the current biggest operational risk is probably that the longer our staff stays at home, the more people get lonely and depressed, not being able to see colleagues. Hopefully, we will manage through that, but I think that's probably the biggest operational risk as we see it now.

Absolutely agree. So you can say in terms of the working environment and running our business is very much status quo. The important part was when we had to mobilize the whole organization to work from home, as Morten said, when COVID hit us in the Spring.

And just to -- can I just follow-up on that? You talk about that sort of the mental health side of things, are Tryg taking any steps to sort of mitigate those risks? Are they taking any steps to possibly get involved in improving mental health of employees?

The measurement we did on this was just a week ago. So we monitor this quite closely. And then we are doing lots of things in the various departments to cheer up employees, celebrate virtually, send things home to employees, do as much as we can to create variation and cooperation and the feeling of being together as you're at home. So we are doing a ton of stuff on that. And most of it actually works. And we got the highest employee set ever in the Autumn. So I think we are pretty successful in this.

And you can say we support that by continued surveys of our staff. So we monitor, you can say, the employees well-being on a very frequent basis. The last point you asked about was the progress in terms of IFRS preparations. And I guess, like the rest of the sector, we are heavily engaged, you can say, in terms of preparing the accounts that we're able to report as intended on 1st of January, 2023. But I think also what you should bear in mind is that in the P&C part of the insurance market, the impact will be less than if you look to the life insurance part of the sector. That's not, you can say, diminishing the impact because there will be an impact on the way that we report. So we are well progressed, you can say, with a dedicated team working on ensuring that we will be ready when the new regulation comes in place.

Next question is from Derald Goh of Citigroup.

Just a couple of questions, please. Firstly, I guess this one's for Johan. It's around the synergy target that you've disclosed. So you've kept the overall figure stable at DKK 900 million, but I'm just wondering if you have any new insights based on additional studies you've done since the last update? And specifically, I'm interested to hear what you're trying to do with the Swedish product, especially? And then my second question is on the general renewals. Could you please give an indication of maybe the rate that you've seen in absolute terms and also relative to prior years? And also maybe an indication of the level of profitability that you're at? And how much more is there to be done in terms of pricing?

Thank you, Teik. Maybe I'll start with the synergy question. I think it's fair to say that we are, of course, very focused on reaping the synergies that we laid out, the DKK 900 million, by 2024. And at this stage, there are no insights that indicate that we are changing our synergy numbers. We are expecting DKK 500 million of our synergies to be coming out of the Swedish market, and 80% of the total synergy target of DKK 900 million to be coming of cost but at this point, there's no changes to that synergy targets nor to the timing of them. So we are just reaffirming the synergies as we laid out back in November. And when it comes to your question on renewal 1st of January, that's a particularly important renewal date for Corporate as roughly 50% of our Corporate business renews 1st of January. It's been a good renewal. In all 3 countries, the Corporate price increases on 1st of January has been more than 10%. Denmark's slightly more than 10%. Norway is somewhat higher than Denmark and actually Corporate Sweden with the highest increase 1st of January. I think it's been received well. Customers have understood. And also majority of the customers have stayed with us, even including these increases. It's a step in the right direction, but the reality is that this is a journey that will continue in the rest of '21 and also into the years following that.

Our last question is from Jon Denham of Morgan Stanley.

Morten, Johan and Barbara, one of your competitors are talking quite openly about looking at M&A opportunities in Denmark. I was just wondering how Codan Denmark works, if it comes to sale, i.e., how do you and Intact evaluate sale prices for Codan Denmark? And when could any sale be announced given the logistics of the demerger? Is it the kind of 2Q '21 expected deal closing or the demerger in 1Q '22? And just secondly, given your dividend expectations, I guess, the implications for TryghedsGruppen and how do you expect that to impact your competitive position either in Denmark, either in the prices you charge or the rebates you give?

Maybe I can start off with answering your question on the dialogues and the pressure on M&A interest in the Danish asset. I think it's -- we can answer that very clearly to say that Intact, our Canadian partner, is the controlling owner of the Codan Denmark asset, and it will be in their sole discretionary interest to figure out what strategic initiatives they will pursue. I'm sure they're also reading the Danish press and they will pick up on the interest that is communicated there, but it's not within our ramps to actually drive or influence this potential sale of the Danish assets, those strategic alternatives rest with Intact, our partner.

And I guess it's quite important that we own the company 50-50, which means that the economic interest of finding the maximum value solution is in the interest of Intact, is in the interest of us. But as Johan put it, Intact is entirely running that transaction. And as you rightfully put it, of course, the separation puts some complication into the question of the Danish asset in terms of timing and process. So bear that in mind. But I think any additional questions on that in more detail, we will have to put to Intact. I think when it comes to the dividend for '21, I think that TryghedsGruppen is very pleased with the medium-term dividend capacity with a doubling of the earnings, with all other things equal, a doubling of the dividend capacity. And as for '21, we've had a good strong dialogue with TryghedsGruppen all along. So this is not something that will be a big surprise for them. And also not something that we expect to impact our competitive position or our market position as such. So I think we look forward to getting into the improvement of earnings zone, improving from the synergies and moving towards the doubling of the earnings and increasing the dividend capacity. And we have TryghedsGruppen alongside in that process.

And sorry, maybe about the competitive position, 2022 onwards when you're talking about the doubling of the dividend, if you think that will impact your competitive position in Denmark?

Well, I think that -- no, I don't think so. I think the -- what we'll see is that our earnings capacity will increase largely from Sweden and Norway. And then planning a further healthy development in Denmark. And then as we increase our dividend capacity, TryghedsGruppen will get more dividends from us. And then they will make their decisions on how much to spend on bonus, how much to spend on TrygFonden or the Tryg Foundation and how much to spend on buying back more Tryg shares. And they clearly announced an intent to buy back more shares in Tryg, that's very positive, and they will do that over the coming years. And our increased dividend will, of course, help them on that journey.

There are no further questions. I'll hand back to Morten for any closing remarks.

Well, thank you all for participating, slightly longer than usual, but only natural in the light of the RSA transactions and a Q4. But thanks a lot for participating. Thanks a lot for your good questions. And we will see you out there. And if you have any additional questions, please don't hesitate to call Gian or Peter in Investor Relations. Thank you.