TTS (Transport Trade Services) S.A. (TTS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello, everybody, and welcome to this video conference and first 9 months' results. I suggest we wait for another couple of minutes so that everybody can join. We will start at 5 minutes after. We are live now. Hello, everybody again, and welcome to our video call for the results for the first 9 months. I will briefly present the results, the market situation and some considerations regarding the perspectives and how we adjust to the future. And then we already have some questions. We will answer your questions one by one. As mentioned before and also in the 9 months report, we are in a recovery situation. And if you want, there is a basis effect with 2022, 2023, when Ukraine had a disruptive result, a positive one. They were exceptional. And of course, we capitalized on them. And the emotion, the evolution was correlated with the results with the basis effect. The 9 months revenues of TTS are equal, well, to the overall revenues of 2021, which was a much better year than 2024. In 9 months, we had RON 393 million. In 2021, we had RON 396 million in revenues, and we have an estimated at RON 479 million in the report. As a group, we have a similar situation, RON 589 million first 9 months of this year. And we had RON 598 million in 2021. Our estimate is RON 739 million to RON 749 million at the end of the year. Looking at the profitability at TTS level, it's almost double when compared to the period prior to Ukraine. In 2021, we had RON 32.6 million in profit the whole year. At 9 months now, we have RON 52 million. And the conditions are not as good as those in 2021. When talking about profit rate, we have a very good one for the -- 14.1%, and it's equal to the rate for the first 9 months of 2022. And let's remember that Ukraine was fully operational back then. And now we estimate for the end of the year, somewhere around RON 70 million EBITDA in 2024. EBITDA of the group, the rate is 20.2% in the first 9 months, a bit under the same period in 2021, and we estimate RON 137 million -- RON 135 million EBITDA for the whole year. It's very difficult to predict because there are technicalities. We have some vessels in Port Constanta, all are not announced, and we don't know when they will arrive. Here, we have some margin, and we cannot estimate. So TTS is today as opposed to 2021, a lot better equipped and very well positioned to keep on developing and evolving. Next year, we will continue to grow, but we will have a more realistic basis. And we will -- when compared to 2022 or 2023. If we look at the balance sheet, it's a solid one. At TTS, the net asset, it's RON 951 million when compared RON 184 million at the end of 2021. And at group level, we have RON 1,044 million when compared to RON 663 million at the end of 2021, 16% annualized rate. And what is already known, we have a low exposure to loans and a comfortable position in cash. This is the main situation currently. When looking at the markets we're active on, we already said before, but we will mention it again. What we all know, the grains from Ukraine have diminished. The volumes have decreased consistently, and very low to have a perfect storm. There are 2 harvests that were compromised by the drought in Romania. And in the summer, we could see that the sunflower and the corn. And on top of that, we will have the pricing on the international market that make the farmers not being able to sell because the prices are very low and the grains and if we look at the wheat because we have wheat, are currently in inventory, and they will come to the market when the conditions improve. And if we look at the steel industry, which is in a chronical state and the causes that we know of, we have the environmental expense very high, energy prices very high. And this -- and then we had the imports that distort the market from Ukraine and they cannot be as profitable in current conditions. So going forward, what we are doing, we are adjusting to the situation in the market. We cover more and more segments. There is a hedging aspect, new flows that compensate the deficits on a longer term, looking on the steel market, but also the deficits from the agricultural products because of the pricing in the international markets. In this context, it becomes very important, the Port of Constanta's situation. It's very important for us as a group level at 9 months, we already showed that port operating activities surpassed in value, RON 160 million, which was higher than RON 84 million that we operated in 2021. Talking about new flows of goods, new projects on a short-term basis in Q4 and 2025, we have 2 projects, one on port operating, one on transport with an estimated quantity, that we will know them exactly then. It's about 500,000 tonnes of goods. We are reactivating the long route to Germany and Austria. We have minerals, we have metals, we have fertilizers, and we expanded our services base. We have a hub in Constanta around Decirom. We can provide services, both of transport in Constanta and port operation. We have a multi-annual contract, which has also a transport -- a river transport component for metals in Constanta. The Decirom, again, is the one that provides the support because -- and the storage, of course, we didn't have that 2 years ago. We can see imports. We are also part of transferring them. We are talking about steel-based products to other countries that somehow balance the activity reduction in the steel industry. And we can see these import flows. We are looking at new flows of fertilizers. Of course, again, Constanta again, Decirom, it's a larger base of services. We entered a project with RetuRO about recycled glass. And we're using here. We are part of the logistics interface in various stages in the chain. We transport to the Danube, then to Constanta, then to the recycling plant. So this is going on for short term, it's not yet medium term. These are the main aspects that are very close to being achieved. Now we are discussing and we try to develop a multi-annual projects 2025, 2026 that have transport and operation sites combined more than 2 million in tonnes, 2.5 million, we'll see. So there are 3 projects in the beginning phase. This is the current context. Looking on the internal side, the operational adjustments that came with reducing the flows on the Danube, you will be able to be see in our margins gradually. And temporarily, we reduced to the minimum the CapEx, the conformity one. We are talking about recertifying the shipment, the vessels and the transport capacity. Already, our investments from 2023 some already have visible effects in cranes, in floating cranes. In Decirom, the investments will become visible more and more in the results starting with 2025. And the investments in extending the Canopus terminal. So we will attack and continue to develop this area also. This is the situation.

Do we have any questions? Yes, we have one question. Is the expected membership in Schengen in January relevant to your business? It would be helpful when moving the crew of the fleet, and the pushes from Romania to Bulgaria and from Bulgaria to Romania. For long distances, of course, we have to transit Serbia. And there will be some advantages, but they're not very considerable.

I have 3 questions. First question, how we will manage investments in the next period. Mr. Techera already answered. Aligning the investments to the current market conditions and the financial situation has started since June or July. We reduced to a minimum the investments in the fleet maintenance. We reduced the small investments that we already had ongoing. What is still ongoing? The investments in Decirom that we already started for modernizing the 3 cranes. Two are ongoing, one will be finished at the end of the year. And the second one, the process will be ending at the end of January. So 2 cranes of 20 tonnes have been modernized and another one follows. So of course, the funding was already allotted priorly. And of course, we need -- badly need these cranes. If you don't have the required equipment, you cannot operate. So we have the process of bringing the goods and the facilities that Decirom can provide. You can already see that, the effect. And we also need the technology required. So the other investment that we are planning, we have a program in Hungary, we stopped it. So we have also some environmental. We are not -- probably next year, we'll see with the grain traders and we'll see what we will do. And in Canopus, of course, this investment will not start prior to January. So we have the internal approval. So it's sustainable. The performance indicators are good. And the market based on our analysis is appropriate. Maybe at the middle point of January, but we'll talk more about it, and it will be concluded towards the summer of 2025. So otherwise, we don't have anything else planned. We have 2 barges that we want to finalize one in December, one in January. And we also have to carry out the residual payments for these barges. And I believe Canopus is conducting -- it's a combination of services. So the funding itself because you can't support it from own funds, the funding will be insured at least 1/3 from own funds, the rest from the bank, but Canopus as previous investments is self-supported.

The next question from the chat. How are you going to manage wages?

So indebtedness at company level and group level, we have an indebtedness decree of 5%, at company level, 11%. We have a positive net debt consolidated and individually. In terms of assets, more than 6% represent cash flow. So we believe that we have a pretty stable position in order to tackle what will come next.

I would like to add something here. The classification and distribution per branches, of course, Canopus has more resources because we want to support the investment, the investments that we talked about. And the situation is, let's say, Canopus is doing great in terms of working trading capital I know what the question related to. Next, can we fund by means of non-reimbursable partially funded by the U.S. if we can access funding? Unfortunately, there are not so many opportunities in this regard. So quota funded by the European Union can cover certain operations. For example, in Georgia, there were a couple of million euros involved in terms of non-reimbursable funding. The administration of river ports that is upgrading and refurbishing the entire area by means of developing the infrastructure with European funds collaborated. But otherwise, other funds that you can access, there's not so many opportunities. We tried for Canopus, for example, to participate in a certain initiative in terms of ensuring costs related to overstructures for grains, for Ukrainian grains. But unfortunately, the program is so restricted that we could not access it because one of the restrictions was to conclude everything by December 31 next year, but that is impossible for us. Otherwise, we have contracts in place with the Ministry of Transportation, with the European Union. We have consultants that are working and analyzing. We are discussing and we are analyzing the possibility of achieving funding for decarbonization purposes, but there's no program right now that answers our requirements.

And the last question, the budget. If we are going to revise the budget or not, are we going to come up with a new budget? I believe that -- so in August, sure, we could have changed it if it would have been required the margins, the differences in comparison to the budget weren't so significant. So they didn't justify a change of the budget. And now there's no time to change the budget. So it's impossible. No. That was the reason why we gave the highlights in the end of -- at the end of the report, and I want to restate them. So estimate of revenues for TTS, RON 479 million, RON 485 million by the end of the year, revenue estimate at the group level, RON 739 million, RON 745 million, EBITDA, RON 70 million, RON 73 million for TTS, RON 137 million, RON 144 million, the group level. These are the figures that you can find in the last part of the report. I'm simply reading them. So these are all the questions that I received on my phone. Are you able to control the size of the employee base and put a lid on wages in the current environment? What should we expect in terms of personnel expense next year?

I'm going to start. As I stated for investments, we want to protect cash. And of course, this applies also wages, and we are analyzing the situation. We don't want our employees to be paid under the market. But this Ukrainian issue has disrupted significantly the wage aspect, especially in terms of the fleet, number of employees and compensation for various activities. There was a period in Izmail, for example, when we had to pay people so that they could carry out activities that were complex based on that specific period. Otherwise, we haven't had any discrepancies in terms of activity. So there is a routine in place, so to speak. And in terms of the market, we had a situation in Navrom. So there was a lot of fluctuation in terms of staff, a reduction in terms of -- not a reduction in terms of wages, but a reduction in terms of employment cost. In October, you can see the difference as compared to the first months of the year. So we started in April. based on the market situation and on the financial situation. So I think we have achieved a balanced position right now. For next year, it's difficult to estimate. At least in terms of fleet personnel, the number of employees depends on the activity. It depends on the number of ships that are operated and used, and this can fluctuate, can fluctuate based on geographical aspects, activity-related aspects, volumes, the flows, for example, on long distance routes, Germany, Northern Austria and so on. These are large distance trips. So we are going to have certain activities that will increase in terms of frequency and complexity. So obviously, the number of employees will increase in that period. But it all depends on the activity that we are conducting. The number of employees depends on the activity. The total cost has decreased substantially. In September, especially, we can see a difference. Right now, there is a correlation that's happening between the decrease of revenues and the decrease of expenses. And next year will depend on the market and how it develops. At the same time, we are going to, of course, employ the same measures, but depending on the specifics of certain situations, we will tackle. We are going to have a minimum number of staffers ready to act in the new port. Maybe depending on drought conditions or lack of harvest, we will see what the final number will be. But we have employed measures up until now in order to ensure that the employee base is adequate and justified.

The next question, can you provide information about the price per ton for agricultural chemical or mineral products transported and handled? Or if not, could you elaborate on the price differences between these categories? Which category experiences the most significant price fluctuation? Price per ton, no, we can't give you a price per ton. For statistic sake, sure, we could come up with prices. For grains, we have 40 routes. And right now, as of July, actually, the activity for grains was on a spot basis in terms of prices. So these conditions entail hundreds of tariffs that change depending on the market from day to day. So it's very difficult to estimate an average tariff for the market for grains, for example. The biggest fluctuations are in terms of grains, then minerals. We still have contract -- 1-year contracts for minerals. Although for grains, we also have contracts in place. As of July, we could not actually conduct all of the activities we wanted. So we moved on to the spot-basis market because the situation was complicated. So of course, the most stable market or segment is the one related to minerals as compared to last year, sure, we have certain transportation routes in relation to which the tariff is 3x lower as compared to previous tariffs. Caius has a question. Thank you for your presentation. Can you please present per segment, the perspective of tariffs and volumes on the medium term for river transport and port operations. What does this mean medium term? 6 months. Okay. Mr. Caius I'll briefly reiterate. We presented a couple of elements that are included in our estimation for the short-term development of the company and maybe medium term as well. We have projects in place that we have been working on for several months. Some of them are more advanced in terms of negotiation and conclusion. And they are going to operate for many years. I don't know if they will be immediately functional. So right now, we are trying to consolidate our position on this market in the conditions that we are tackling today. We -- there was a lot of competition especially in terms of fleet services. The effects, of course, are not visible right now yet. But everyone will have issues. And depending on the power that they possess beforehand, they will see how we're talking about cash flow stability and so on. Some companies already entered the insolvency. Other companies are simply decreasing overall and other companies are maintaining efficiencies such as our company. So right now, we are playing on a market that isn't very clear. So we have contracts for cranes, for minerals. The mineral market is okay. The grains market is very difficult to estimate in terms of what will happen next year. This market has stocks of 5 million, 6 million tonnes of grains as per the reports of trading companies in the grains market, but they are not being sold due to market conditions. Farmers are also tackling issues right now, not only farmers in Romania, but farmers from other countries as well. Russian goods are so discounted. They are disrupting the market. So the market itself is undergoing a lot of issues. If something will happen, the market will function. But of course, but if nothing bad happens, the market will continue its trend as we see it today. So we are present on the market, and we are trying to build where we can build. And we are trying to continue our activities with our clients in terms of grains, the Grain segment. At the same time, and here is where the black swan intervened. Ukraine distorted everything related to the market in 2022 negatively than positively, and now we are simply tackling the aftermath. The Danube activity, economic activity is not related to this context. So we simply need to watch TV and realize what is happening around us. Now we are talking about peace in terms of Ukraine. Let's see what peace would mean. Let's see what geopolitical peace would mean. Of course, this would entail a rebuilding process, which is again complicated. What does this entail? We don't know. We can't even estimate. We, of course, are considering the fact that we will need steel for such a reconsolidation and rebuilding and the European Union will use these resources for the reconstructions in Ukraine. So there will be a need for steel from other sources. And it depends or the European Union will restart the metal industry. Maybe the ceasing of the war will stop this distortion in terms of prices and transportation overall. There were there were auctions for these services. And over half of the goods were taken over and operated by companies in Russia at huge discounts. No other country can offer such prices. And so grains trading is not conducted only based on market conditions. Logically speaking, in terms of Danube and overall economy, good flows will change after a peace treaty is signed, but we can't estimate right now. However, in terms of Minerals, you probably analyzed our report. This segment was great. There was -- in Q4, we have huge activity in this regard. Of course, it's less than we wanted and less than desired, but this trend will continue. We have estimates for the first half of the year. We are going to extend the collaboration that we have with the mineral plant facility. So we can say that at least in next year for the Minerals segment, the trend will continue. In terms of Grains, until we have the harvest, it's difficult to estimate. We have stocks, but we don't know what will happen with them. It depends also on future harvests as well and future crops. In June, we were convinced, we all were convinced that we are going to have such huge volumes, we won't be able to transport set volumes, and this was not the case. So we can say, yes, there was a great harvest, and we had great activity in this regard only after we see the results. And the legislation of the union in terms of environment will influence the market. especially in terms of metal plants because the taxation system will operate depending on the production of CO2 per steel ton. So all of the countries outside of the European Union will align to similar standards as producers within the union. We can't answer in terms of how we will be affected as transportation operators in this regard. But there will be a change in the market. Production may be encouraged to increase in the Union -- European Union, but this will start in 2026. Provide details about your current fleet? About the number of vessels, just as active vessels, 24 lines. So they are in conveys and they go 15 maneuver vessels, ancillary vessels. These ensure operation in the port, but also operation of short carrier. And at the same time, they serve Danube on segments for grains from Giurgiu to Bechet, you have the vessels that maneuver 800 horsepower up to 2,000, 3,000 horsepower. So -- and as a fleet, in the morning, we have a situation, 435 barges, bigger, smaller and some ships. More than half are covered, 225 or 230 are covered barges, and the rest are open. Of course, they're smaller, and they were built for maneuvering stone or charcoal or coal. So this is the vessel. Looking at the performance indicators of investments that you priorly talked about, which are these? If we look at Canopus here, we have to pay more attention. We will present to the BOD. There was an internal rate of return with 2 figures. And we had an increase in volumes of 60% when compared to our best performance up to now. In the past, you specified that you will not honor the contract that did not ensure a profit margin. Considering the result in Q3, did you change your mind? Can you comment on this topic?

Yes, I will answer that. We have to go to the prior calls, including those in 2023. We were cautious in communicating about the future. This summer, Up to the end of June, we considered that Q3 would be a classical one, a normal one. mainly due to the new crop of grains. The third quarter was -- of course, there was wheat, but it wasn't sold. And everybody, well, they're talking about river transport, all companies, if we don't consider or include Ukraine. Because now the prices do not cover their costs now. They are that low. So we had to choose between losses or cash flow. If we kept that contract that you talked about, to make other calculations about the profit and margin, we would notice that we would exit the market because there is a demand and supply game that led the pricing that did not allow the merchandise, the goods to move. So -- if we looked at the prices with a rational margin, so it was a very difficult decision to choose between the P&L. It's not a general rule. We are talking about grains, about the losses and cash flow. And we had to play in this game, in this model. And I want to state. And my perspective being -- I'm doing this from my whole business life. I'm very happy that we made this decision. And then we could see the other players in the market, the differences -- and it started from a need, to be honest, to see the market and of course, based on your needs. So we are now very stable. And our clients talking about grains are those that are stable also that slowly they did not disappear, but they are not as active on the market, both in the trading and in the operating. So this was an important moment, and we had to decide that we can work on certain activities even without the profit. Even in '22 and 2023, we did not give up the long contracts, the strategic partnerships that we have since the company has been established. We continue these routes, although Ukraine seemed -- the goods from Ukraine had a superior perspective.

I would also add briefly about what Mr. Ion Stanciu's comment. Our business model traditionally and that worked and was flexible was not based on the pricing competition. No, not this reason was the one that helped us growth. But in a crisis situation, you cannot stay aside and not consider the market context because you are forced to do things that you don't want to do because you have other offers, but the market forces you when you have an overcapacity to make -- to have pricing competition also. And of course, the market being very fragmented is not a solution. It's a problem for us. It's inefficient. Caius. From a strategic perspective, for 5 years, where do you want to position yourself? Which are the bets of development that you are willing to make? Which are the major drivers that you want to exploit? I don't know exactly how to answer. It's a hard question. It's an analyst from analyst to an analyst. If somebody looks at the evolution in the last few years. It's obvious that strategically, we are heading towards consolidation in the port. The port will become -- will be a very solid base for us because if you look at the flows, everything is connected to the port. If a vessel comes in the lane of the port, then it also entails transport operation. And from 2023, from the opportunity with Decirom, we strengthened our position there so that we can access and widen the range of goods that we can operate. Then you have the roads transportation. There are clients who need transport by roads. But if you come with the overall package, you can cover all the needs. So from a strategic perspective, this is a very important aspect for us, and you can see that in the evolution of the company. I would also add to making more accessible this transport by river to areas which normally don't access it. So we are talking about the Logistics segment. What we started to do in Constanta resembles with the logistical then it goes by sea, by train, by road in its transit, not only Romania. This is valid for the other countries in the region. We want to further expand this business model so that there is available to more categories of goods. And we try to use, and use more properly the port network at Danube. This is we are correlating with RetuRO project, which can go by road towards the factory or to the centers. We managed to make this process very efficient, and we have the truck in a port. The goods go to a vessel, then it goes to Constanta, then it goes to the sea level. So the water transportation is the most efficient, not only in terms of cost, but also from an environmental perspective. Can you comment on the oversupply of barges on the Danube? And how do you see it resolved in the coming months or years? Are the smaller operators waiting around for a deterioration in Ukraine that will resume volumes again? Unfortunately, there are no statistics that allow us to analyze this information in the public area. So if we look at the fleet in 2021 or 2022, it seems that last summer, it was 2 or 3x higher. I didn't hear anybody say 1.5x higher. It was between 2 to 3x bigger, but not new constructions. These vessels were bought secondhand from various places. So of course, the exchange owners -- and all came from the Rhine. Also, they do not have a very smooth operating. And we had some fleet vessels from [indiscernible] and came to the Danube that was able to get out of the Russian attack. So now a part tried to compete with the Danube routes. Another part is still waiting for another lots from Ukraine. But the biggest part of this fleet stays, does not operate. The assets in this fleet, barges or pushes or they came by increasing the assets of the companies that existed. Others were acquired by various traders of grains and some other came from companies for a profit reasoning. A part of them, a part of the vessels came back from where they came from in the Netherlands, in Germany. Another part is not operating. Another part is part of being displaced cut. So it's very clear that in the past following months, we can see a decrease of the active fleet in the area. And the one that comes from Ukraine, from Constanta or they go to Germany, this -- the number of assets is lower and lower. How much will it take for the market to stabilize? We don't see recovery of the transport of goods in Izmail. We don't see it. And we -- it should have been operating by now. We don't know. How do you see the evolution of tariffs in the following period? We look at -- we are talking about grains here. So yes, in the minerals, it's stable. In fertilizers, there were always fluctuations, but the decrease is not -- it wasn't as high as in the grains. We can see here a stabilization, low, of course, at very low levels. But this is what we are seeing currently. When talking about tariffs are closely correlated and rapidly to costs, of course. And these costs can vary in the short term. The market is not as stable as it should be for making estimates. [indiscernible], to what extent would the potential increase of flows of goods affect traffic in the area and on the Danube via the Piraeus port? So the Piraeus port serves the southern part of Europe. And the connection between Greece and the entirety of the Danube area is not necessarily direct. You can reach it via vehicle, via train, right? But not via waterway. So other goods and other good flows, we're talking about different things as compared to Constanta, for example. Piraeus is a Chinese investment after all in container logistics. There was an impact when the crisis started, of course, in terms of container activities, this happened also in Romania. There was an influence, but this is not something that is happening now. There are no other questions right now. Great. So in light of the fact that there are no other questions, we are going to conclude the meeting. Thank you. And we will wait -- we are eager to hear from you in the next conference with the preliminary results. Probably at the beginning of March, we haven't drafted out the calendar. Thank you, everyone, and have a nice day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]