TTS (Transport Trade Services) S.A. (TTS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Hello to the guests present here today. I'm going to start the video conference by listing the main aspects in the report. And then we're going to move forward with your questions. So the general picture for the first 9 months was characterized by 3 factors: a difficult market context, the same volatile flows that we are accustomed to, continued pressure on tariffs throughout the entire period and unfavorable hydrological conditions. I believe throughout the first half of the year, -- so in July, there was an interruption in terms of navigational activities. So 10 days, no navigation on the day. The second factor in this context was our focus on what we could actually do. So cost discipline. And secondly, the 2 factors related to goods and segments mix, port operations and continuation of diversification of the cargo mix. So in Q3, Q3 was the best quarter in the past 18 months. We had a moderate revenue growth. It wasn't a spectacular growth, but we managed to fully recover losses from the first half of the year, almost fully, mainly due to a reduction of OpEx. And in Q3, we had the most reduced OpEx level, RON 147.4 million at consolidated level, and this was reflected in the best profitability in the past 18 months. In terms of commercial mix of goods and segments, so the first significant aspect for the first 9 months, minerals and chemical goods exceeded agricultural goods flow, almost 10% -- approximately 10% more when compared to the volume in the first 9 months of 2024. Similarly, port operations exceeded river transport in terms of volume, 4.62 million tons versus 3.34 million tonnes, and it was lower by 14.4% compared to the first 9 months of 2024, but this decrease is mainly due to the latest months in 2024 when we still had significant volumes of Ukrainian export goods. So that's why there is a decrease in terms of figures between the first 9 months of 2024 and the same period in 2025. So what's important for us, the third quarter confirmed the activity for the first half, and we have a basis, a foundation for a sustainable recovery in 2026. Moving towards results. First off, here on the chart, you can see that the profitability indicators in Q3 are better than Q2 2024, Q2 2024 when we still had Ukrainian export goods. EBITDA was increasing. We reached RON 37.9 million better than Q2. And we had an operational profit of RON 19.1 million. So expenses are the main items here, a reduction of RON 4.6 million expenses with salaries and RON 7.2 million revenues were added on top of these. So that's why net profit was RON 14.3 million with an EBITDA margin in Q3 of 22.8%. In what concerns individual results. So for the first 9 months because the previous discussion related to Q3. So after incurring -- so operating profit, RON 7.7 million, reduction of net loss, RON 4.6 million. EBITDA margin is 15.5% for the first 9 months of the year. Individual results. We had a net profit of RON 19.1 million revenues RON 13 million. EBITDA margins revolve around 9.2%, 9.3% when talking about Q3 and the first 9 months. Profit margin, 6.4% for Q3, better than the average for the first 9 months, which was 6.1%. And what concerns our financial position at consolidated level, especially, I want to add something. So we have a solid financial position, as you can see from the figures. Increase in the balance of borrowed amount, significant at group level, but it has 2 main sources. First off, a loan, an investment loan amounting contracted to finance the Canopus terminal expansion, EUR 9.82 million. And the second source was the classification of long-term lease contracts as per IFRS 16, which led to an increase in terms of borrowed amounts a surplus of RON 37.6 million. To continue in terms of costs. Here, you can see a general presentation of costs, nothing spectacular. Costs continued to show decrease in terms of certain segments. There were increases in terms of port operation segment, for example, increase justified by the activity level. So the market share, our fleet was more affected due to navigational conditions because we have longer routes. So our market share moved from 36% to 29.1% measured for bulk cargo. Now moving forward to volumes. We want to start with minerals. They were down by almost 500,000 tonnes. This is explained by seasonality. And you can see this reflected in the development of last year. Q3 is usually slower, but there are no overall differences and we achieved 3.38 million tonnes in the first 9 months for mineral volumes. Moving forward, chemical products, we had a one-off decline in port operations. It was unexpected. It's not huge, but it's reflected in the chart as compared to Q2. But overall aggregated chemical volume for the first 9 months, we remained steady at 10.4% compared to the first 9 months of 2024. In terms of agricultural products, the crops, the harvest reflected the growth. The volume increased significantly in Q3 compared to Q2, but the volumes were affected. In September, that blockage of the market started to make its presence known due to prices on international markets. And there was also the navigation interruption that came precisely in the high of agricultural product flows from the new harvest. So that was something that influenced our activity. The levels were lower compared to Q3 2024, although the harvest overall was better when compared to 2024. Moving forward, so aggregate group aggregate around 2.7 million tonnes. In terms of port operations, it's over river transport in terms of volumes. We had an increase of 5% compared to Q2 and 0.7% compared to Q3 2024. And a more pronounced increase is reflected in port operations. Aggregated volume, the main effect came from the level of Ukrainian goods from the first 9 months of 2024. And if we analyze this year individually, the deficit of 1.58 million tonnes as compared to the figures from last year was actually recorded in the first half of the year. To conclude, we adjusted our financial projections for 2025. The adjustment was mathematical in nature due to the decreased volumes related to the agricultural products, starting with September. This is also reflected in Q4. Right now, our estimation is between RON 640 million and RON 660 million for consolidated turnover. EBITDA consolidated between RON 96 million and RON 100 million, individual turnover RON 406 million, RON 416 million and individual EBITDA, RON 37 million, RON 39 million estimated. This would be it in relation to the report. And now we are open to hear your questions.

Congratulations on your results, and we appreciate the fact that we are looking on a quarter-on-quarter basis individually. There are some questions about minerals and chemicals, which had a solid evolution. It was a favorable context or is something that we can see going forward in the next quarters. The second question about the agricultural products. We saw recovery in Q3. There were some blockages in this market. And this recovery comes from -- can we see -- is it an exceptional case or the market has recovered and we can see a normalization beginning with next year? And the third question about the IFRS 16. Is this something new? As far as I know, some contract, these contracts, the companies were compelled to register them as such. Is it something special there? Or why did you recognize the contract as such?

Talking about minerals and fertilizers, there are some projects we worked on for years and now are beginning to materialize. We have an increase in the minerals. And we're talking about the flows going upstream that ensures the loading of barges upstream. In fertilizers, we can see again an increase from an aggression in the market in the past and in the present that are showing. And we're trying to have some flows that priorly were operated or transported by other fleets, especially the ones from Serbia. So for fertilizer, the destination was Serbia. At the same time, going back to the project, we have flows that the transfer relations goes as far as Germany, and we managed to enter in the downstream merchandises, laminated products. We can now talk about grains. Although we had a good harvest, there was that period with low waters in depth. We had upstream merchandise, and there was a blockage. Then the market fell as the Russians goods and Ukrainian goods were sold at dumping prices. But in the last period here, we also managed to have the flows of merchandise. We tried to ensure a full on transport in the lower basin of the dam. We didn't have empty barges. We had full onboard goods. We had fertilizers going in and grades going out.

I would like to add. When looking at the estimates, the budgeted ones, we had a note in minerals and also in fertilizer, a large amount is outside of the EU. So Serbia is the main market. In the EU, the minerals is going to 0, and this will continue.

Let's talk about IFRS 16. As Decirom entered the group, meant a change in the recognizing manner of these long-term contracts. These contracts have a significant value. And after Decirom joined the group, there were performance objectives, new ones to the port operating contracts, and we waited for a time line to see if they can be achieved. They were achieved. And of course, we recorded the new contract as per IFRS 16. So the land is state-owned. It cannot be registered and we have some rights for renting and they are managed by our criteria, performance criteria.

There are no further questions. We will wait for a couple of minutes. And Mrs. Daniela Popov, please. We cannot hear her. Some technical issues. Now should be okay.

When can we expect stabilization of the agricultural flows.

It's a very important question, million points question. This is the second year in a row the third time going on with the same market situation. Of course, it's war related beside the fact that we used that the Russian goods to decrease the pricing in the market. But now this phenomenon was accentuated. We had the drought from last year, which reduced the harvest. We had a very large reduction in corn and sunflower almost 0. So the summer harvest had good volumes in 2024, looking at wheat and red seed. So corn last year was not that important as I could see. So we had 700 million hectares less corn product. This year, wheat was a record harvest per hectare and overall red seed also a very good harvest. There are summer harvest with large productions. So the heat in the summer had the same impact on the corn production at the limit of the internal consumption rate. So this autumn, we can see a step further from this process. And we will see a decrease the surface that will be seeded with corn. So we have disruptions also for the farmers. So they will harvest wheat from the field and a lot of wheat at the end of June, July, by September and then we had the corn export something close to 0. And the farmers were reluctant to harvest. So the consequence is that the inventory for wheat are very high. So if 1 million of wheat is exported per month, we will have exports up to next summer. There is a lot less merchandise on the market. And this leads to the increase of the competitiveness of the trucks. The trucks very important competitor to the fleet because they load in Constanta. They don't need to go to the port and in these conditions, export conditions, a flattening of the highs, the trucks are being used for transporting the goods towards Constanta. And to have the big picture, it's very hard to estimate the next year conditions. As Hungary did not have a very good harbor this year, Serbia had some meat, but it's the third year in a row where we see the situation. The Serbians want to buy the corn from where, we don't know. And also sunflower. So it is contaminated. So the climate changes led to major changes in the quality, quantity of the products that are being harvested. And in Romania and in the Danube Basin until the war in Ukraine stops, we do not see any change for the better for the market. This is how we see the context.

There are no other questions for now. So let's give it 2, 3 more minutes and if no other questions appear. So we have a question. You mentioned that you couldn't benefit fully from the harvest due to difficult or deficit in terms of navigation conditions. So part of the agricultural flow was taken over by trucks?

Yes. So for that 10-day period in the Zimnicea, Giurgiu area, there is dredging in the area. But unfortunately, there was a stop in terms of -- a deficit in terms of transportation. Not only our fleet, but when the entire fleet couldn't take over the goods that came over from the harvest areas, we had a higher number of trucks that started to take over these good flows. And the overall quantity, the volumes decreased in terms of goods that went to the port. So 10 days of full stop, but they were preceded by a period of difficult navigation. And of course, after this 10-day period, navigation continued to be difficult. So routes were difficult. Barges were not fully loaded. It was difficult overall in terms of navigation. So this 10-day stop was difficult, then a longer period also produced -- yes. So this was the longest period in terms of difficult navigation, 120 days in total. So the barges couldn't be loaded fully. They were loaded less than their full capacity. So the same number of barges came forward with less goods, less volume. So that's why we had issues. So it was a chain reaction, let's call it, situation that triggered another situation that triggered another situation and overall leads to a reduction in terms of volumes. In addition, the farmers need coherence, consistency and predictability in terms of transportation from silos to Constanta. So our ships are huge. And if the goods don't reach the ship in time, there are delays. So everyone wants to have predictability in terms of transportation of volumes, and they choose the easiest solution to coordinate. Mr. [indiscernible], so supply with fuel could be an issue in the following months? No. We have no negative information in this regard. Navrom has its own fuel supply system. They input fuel, they use it for their own garages, of course, based on -- so we have no information that there will be issues in this regard. In Constanta, cranes are supplied with fuel regularly via trucks. We don't want to give out the names, but...

So there are no questions now.

Mr. [indiscernible]. Congratulations for the results. When will you -- when will the dredging project on the Danube be finalized? And can we increase the volumes processed by a port operation?

Okay. So the Danube is dredged by 2 entities, [indiscernible], and this activity is constant. So Calarasi downstream and another portion towards Turnu Severin. And we also have the Bulgarian AFDC that is doing its activity from Galati to Calarasi or they should be covering this area. In the past years, they've had interruptions. But the area is so wide and there is no hydrotechnical platform in place, infrastructure in place. The activity is continuous. So that's why both entities are overwhelmed. Fairway projects, the fairway project is a hot topic and has been for 10 years, if I'm not mistaken. But yes, it has various components, but I'm talking specifically about -- so it's an experiment. So for this activity, so in European discussion, there is no framework. Fairway is a project that aims to regulate these activities by means of special constructions. But unfortunately, it hasn't been implemented. As a flexible alternative, the European Commission with DG MOVE started this subfairway project or initiative, and it's an experiment, if you will. We are part of this experiment. So we have slabs that are loaded with stone and sand and so on so that we can ensure a variable level, and they are placed in various locations on the Danube so that we can then measure the debit of the Danube, the flow so that we can see if this flexible barrage influences positively. And I think right now, they are currently installing the first 2 barges in the Romanian area, and there's another leg of the project in Croatia. So the idea is that Fairway 2, let's call it Fairway 2, by means of the AFDJ, it aims to create a natural drainage system, dredging system. So this dredging we are accustomed to entails useless labor because each year brings new issues. So you have to do a continuous dredging activity. What it aims, and we hope it will succeed. So this experimental phase will last up to 2026. So they want to narrow, artificially narrow certain difficult areas. This artificial narrowing of the flow, this will lead to an increase of the water flow speed. And this increase in speed will hopefully lead to a natural dredging system that won't require consistent dredging works. Romania is involved, and I believe someone else -- so in 2 areas we are involved in Croatia and in the Zimnicea area. The project has started. The first barges are in position, and they are currently being adjusted. You have to see. How low should they go. And of course, as things will develop, we are going to update you with any news.

Second question, how can we increase the volumes processed via the Romanian Naval Authority?

Yes, that's a consistent preoccupation that we have. I don't know if you were at our conference in the previous years. So you can't throw a football in Constanta because you will hit the maritime vessel. So over 60 vessels continuously operating in the past. Now we have 18 ships. They are small, 3,000 tons, 5,000 tons. So there are no flows of goods. The basis, the fundament was always the mineral segment, big vessels, small vessels, however, with aluminum or whatever products they operated. So the entire metallurgy area that seems to work -- so metallurgy overall has disappeared in [ Tulcea ]. They all use trucks. The goods that come forward sheets, concrete. They come from Turkey, South Korea. But imagine we are talking about finished products, 1 ton finished products and raw materials compared to raw materials, which entails tenfold volume. So this is the situation. The only unit still working is Severin, but it doesn't bring forward the finished products via Constanta. We're at half as of 2021 in terms of volumes. So they either go upstream or go to the former [indiscernible] region. What we mentioned before, we have volumes coming from Serbia downstream, and they appeared this year recently. Fertilizers, yes, they're coming. But if we don't export grains, it's useless. We have farmers who did not use fertilizers this year. Why use fertilizers if there's no rain. It's useless. It's futile. So that's why there is a reticence due to mathematical constraints, nothing else. So things are overall complicated. Besides a part of the fertilizer sector comes from Russia, and that's very complicated in terms of analysis based on sanctions applied to companies from Russia and so on. And we see that this traffic is starting to stall. So it's complicated. The chemical industry is currently developing. We don't have a chemical industry right now. But Hungary is starting to develop its chemical industry. There are imports coming from Austria directly via barges moving through Turnu Severin, [indiscernible]. So the flows, the volumes are changing right now due to geostrategical factors, decrease on the Danube, huge fees made certain volumes that we have -- we had this year in Constanta to move to other ports, Serbia, Croatia. Vukovar port in Croatia, for example, was a tempting port. We wanted to buy it several years ago due to traffic via Constanta. But now there's almost no flow via Constanta for this port. What we operate towards Serbia, which started to increase for the Adriatic seaports are impacted by costs related to the Danube and costs related to the transportation itself. All the fees are growing. So things are very complicated. In Constanta, every operator is private, except for one terminal, and they invested a lot of money in their development regardless of what they transport. We're not referring to bulk or liquid volumes or no, regardless. And they can't recover their investment, for sure, some have profits, smaller or higher. Containers are the only ones that work via Constanta. Bulk goods or finished products are suffering right now, all of them.

Is their platform of Romanian Naval Authority that can publish the offer of each port operator.

There is no such platform in this market. There are private market free markets. So we don't have that. How does the transporter know how to work with an operator, the transporters transport and the operators operate the merchandise. It can be a trader or a price and it carries it to another place, load and unload. And the port operator loads from his own client. It's very seldom that there are operators that has also the river and the port operations and rent them. And even us, we do not always choose our operator. There's only one we're very delighted to cooperate with them. It's the only one that can operate raw materials in Constanta. When we transport goods, we go where the client tells us to. It's not a direct relation.

And from a practical perspective, there are a few thousand so that there is a platform where the market needs. There are a couple of players in Constanta. You do not look at those transport liquid or containers, you reduce the number and you will have a fair share. And we're talking from the perspective of the person bringing the goods. And from that universe with a couple of calls, you will see the best price. So we're not in a situation, in a market situation with a lot of players where it makes sense to have such a platform. It's very diverse of the goods. One is crop, one is fertilizers and so on. It's not very standardized and there are not a lot of players so that we have the need for transparent platform.

Investments in port operating in Moldavia.

No.

Considering that Moldavia wants to join the EU and probably the goods -- the flow of goods will increase.

It's a complex issue. We don't have such investments.

There are no further questions. Okay so considering there are no further questions. Thank you very much for joining our call, this video call. Goodbye and happy holidays. And we will meet again after the early results at the beginning of March. This will be our next conference. Thank you, and have a nice day. [Statements in English on this transcript were spoken by an interpreter present on the live call.]