U.S. Bancorp (USB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

All right. I will read my disclaimer and then we'll get into it. For important disclosures, please see Morgan Stanley research disclosure website at www.morganstanley.com/researchdisclosures. The taking of photographs and the use of recording devices is also not allowed. If you have questions, please reach out to your Morgan Stanley sales representative. Okay. With that done and dusted, we are excited to introduce to the room today, Andy Cecere, Chairman and CEO of U.S. Bancorp.

Good morning, Betsy.

Thank you. And John Stern, Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer.

Good morning.

Thank you so much for joining us today.

Thank you. Good to see you.

We were just chatting a little bit up here before we went on the live mic that this is our 15th Annual Morgan Stanley Financials Conference, which I was the instigator of. And Andy Cecere, you should be getting a gold star frequent flyer pin because I think you've been to every single one of them.

Yes, I'll wait for it.

Thank you. Thank you so much for joining us this year again. Really appreciate your contribution to our understanding of USB.

It's great to be here, and it's great to see you back as well.

Thank you so much. So John, why don't we kick off the conversation here with you. Just to talk about what's going on with the quarter. So with most of the quarter, behind us, could you provide us with some update on what you're seeing in business trends and in the operating environment?

Sure. Absolutely. Good morning, everyone. Good to have you all here. In terms of overall economy, we feel that the economy is quite constructive at this time and resilient. On the consumer side, spending levels remain healthy, although they are normalizing. On the commercial side, businesses are still uncertain about the outlook. And so loan growth has been more or less tepid. But overall, it's very conducive to our soft landing view in our base case where interest rates and inflation are normalizing. And so we feel good about the economy. Obviously, there are risks with that. As it relates to guidance and thinking about the quarter and the full year, there is no change to our guidance for either the quarter or for the full year. It's coming in as expected. So what that means from a net interest income standpoint, for the second quarter, is we're going to be relatively stable on a net interest income standpoint, with the first quarter, which is about $4 billion. On a full year basis, we'll be between the range of $16.1 billion and $16.4 billion for the full year. And then as we think about fees, we continue to make great progress on our fee accounts and building deeper relationships and growing with our customers. And so we continue to anticipate mid-single-digit growth on a core basis on a year-over-year basis. Now where we land in that range is going to be dependent upon a couple of things, principally in underlying trends in capital markets activity as well as consumer spend. So those are the things that we'll be watching out for. As we think about expenses, we continue to expect $16.8 billion or lower for the full year from an expense standpoint. And then as we think about charge-offs, we will -- we anticipate for the second quarter being in the high 50s from a net charge-off perspective in the second quarter and approaching 60 basis points as we get into the latter half of the year.

Okay. Great. Well, we're going to dig into some of those items as we go through the question list. So thanks for that overview. I appreciate it. Andy, maybe we could shift to strategy. 2023 was a year of integrating Union Bank and achieving your strategic goals post merger, cost saves, for example, none of -- which have been achieved, right? That's...

Correct.

A 100%...

Completely in the run rate.

Right, completely in the run rate. Okay. And it would be helpful if we could go through what from here, your top 3 strategic priorities are for 2024 and beyond?

Sure, Betsy. I think you said it up well because what we've done the last few years helps us in the priorities as we go forward. And one of them is the Union Bank successful integration of that achieving the cost takeouts, adding 1 million customers that have a great opportunity to expand. We've really invested in our banking payments ecosystem, our digital capabilities, our tech platform has simplified the organization. So all those things that we've done in the last few years allow us to focus on 3 things as we go forward. Number one is revenue growth. We have a great opportunity to leverage those unique businesses that John referred to. 40% of our fees are our revenue derived from fees and a lot of fees that are very unique to U.S. Bank payments, corporate trusts, fund services, commercial products. Secondly is leveraging on the revenue side, leveraging that Union Bank opportunity. Again, great loyal customer base, very affluent, but underpenetrated in terms of product and services. We can leverage that with our payments capabilities and such. And then number 2 is we've been investing a lot in the company. And we are now flattened on that expense curve and that investment curve, and we're in the payback mode of those investments. Part of that investment was to drive that revenue growth, but part of it is also to drive efficiencies. So really focusing on positive operating leverage and efficient growth. And then thirdly is doing what we've always done, which is risk management, being good at financial discipline and risk management, credit underwriting. So those are our 3 priorities, which will drive the top line growth, bottom line growth and a high tangible return on common equity.

Okay. And so that's the go-forward plan.

It is.

And how should we be thinking about how that rate of change evolves over the next several years?

So as we talked about, I think we would expect to have positive operating leverage in the second half of '24. And importantly, as we go into '25 and beyond. John will talk about net interest income, but as that sort of moderates and starts to grow slightly, modestly, all those things would drive positive operating leverage and an increase in the return on tangible common equity as we go forward. I think we have great opportunity principally because of that top line growth and that efficiency from the expense standpoint that I talked about.

Great. And the acquisition did add, what, a net $75 billion in assets, bringing you to $650 million plus in total average assets, right? So based on your outlook for -- or our outlook, not yours, it's my outlook. For a 3% asset growth, we're expecting that you would migrate organically to Category II sometime in 2027. I mean it's several years out, right? But I wanted to understand how you're thinking about the march towards this Category II status? And what your preparation is for that as we've heard from regulators that, yes, as banks approach the next level, we're going to expect that they're going to be getting ready, which to me doesn't sound like anything new like all along, it's been happening like that. So I'm sure you have in your planning, long-term planning horizon, this expectation? And I wanted to understand how you're preparing for it?

Yes. So first, I'll say your outlook is about right, Betsy, in terms of the modest loan growth, 2% to 3% GDP plus would get us there sometime in '27. Remember, you have to be at $700 billion for 4 quarters on average. So your outlook is about right. We're well prepared for that. And maybe, John, you can talk a little bit about that.

Yes. In terms of preparation, we lived in a pre-tailoring. We had a lot of the same regulatory expectations in terms of daily reporting or any of the AOCI, taking that into consideration for capital, we've lived with all that. And so we have all the infrastructure. So we don't expect a lot of build-out or additional expense as we migrate or march toward from Category III into II over time.

Okay. So really, your current operating platform can handle it?

It can. And importantly, also, Betsy, we are creating -- we generate 20 to 25 basis points of capital on a net basis on a quarterly basis. So 80 to 100 basis points a year. We expect a migration or a runoff, burn-off of AOCI, 25% or so -- 25%. So all those -- all the math on that will allow us to get there in a very comfortable fashion.

Okay. Great. All right. Let's move to fees. So you indicated that you're expecting the mid-single-digit growth for the full year. And it would be useful for folks in the room, if we could dig into the biggest drivers of that because one of the questions we do get from investors is, how are you going to hit that with some of the businesses being slower growth right now due to like mortgage and things like that, not so robust. But let's talk about where the robustness is coming from.

Right. Well, step back, we have a very unique set of businesses that will drive that growth. I'll start with payments. We've invested a lot in payments, talech, Bento, merchant processing, tech-led that combination of banking plus payments in that ecosystem, that's going to be one of the key drivers of growth. We have 1.4 million small businesses, tens of thousands of commercial clients, that we can sell more to in terms of payments capabilities that already are banking clients, and we've seen great progress on that already. We have a great commercial product set. We can take a customer from cradle to grave. We can offer them the lending capability, the bond issuance, we can be the trustee and the bond, offer them FX protection as well as interest rate protection. We have a great set of businesses in fund services and corporate trust, which are very unique, very steady, very annuity based. So we have, like most banks, commercial banking fees and consumer banking fees, but we have these set of businesses that allow us to differentiate and really extend the relationship with the customers, that will drive that growth.

Okay. Great. And can we talk a little bit about merchant processing. How is that going? How are the wins going? How are you...

So merchant processing -- first of all, let me take a step back. That's an area that we've invested a tremendous amount over the past few years. I talked about that investment. We spend about $2.5 billion a year in investment, probably the #1 category has been merchant processing. And one of the great advantages of the company is this interplay between banking and payments and really bundling those capabilities into one comprehensive service. We've also invested a lot in tech-led. In other words, integrating the merchant processing into the software that runs the company and help them manage their cash flows, their payables and the receivables. So it is a key initiative for the organization. One of the benefits of having merchant processing as part of a bank is that ecosystem component and the fact that we have 1.4 million small business customers and tens of thousands of commercial customers that can use that comprehensive capability to help them run their business.

And so when you go to market with realizing that other banks do have payments as well, but what is it about your platform...

Well, I think, we're a little unique in having merchant processing as part of our core capabilities, our own core system, unique to U.S. banks. Some others use the third party to that. And I think we can really take a comprehensive view of it and intermingle it the navigation, the offering with our banking services. And that is a little unique. There aren't many banks who have merchant processing as the core capability.

Right. Okay. So on payments, it's really a merchant processing...

Merchant card issuing is terrific as well. And then corporate payments is another one that's unique. We have a great government relationship. We -- T&E card, fleet card, that all help again, companies run their business in the money movement component.

Okay. So as we round out the discussion on fees, any other areas that you'd want to...

Those are the key areas. Again, I would continue to focus on those differentiated set of businesses over and above traditional consumer fees.

Okay. Great. Let's turn to net interest income. So the outlook for the full year is $16.1 billion to $16.4 billion, very nice, tight range. Maybe you can help us understand what are the assumptions differential between the low end and the high end of that guide?

Sure. Well, I can take that. And so as I think about net interest income for the full year, the biggest drivers are going to be and probably in this order, would be deposits and how the migration or rates change in that area, then I would say, on the asset side. And then anything else after that. So interest rates, Federal Reserve actions, I think quantitative tightening things of that variety. So if I think about on the deposit side, we have seen migration out of DDA and lower interest-bearing into higher interest bearing. That has been slowing. We continue to see that stable -- that continue to stabilize. The faster that stabilizes, the more likely we're on the higher end. If it continues to linger, then that would be more on the -- perhaps on the lower end. But then deposit rate paid, we continue to see a little bit of creep up in deposit beta, but that has been, again, normalizing very much slowing down. We can definitely see that. Again, a speed up or slowdown will dictate the type of range that you're in. And then on the asset side, we continue to expect positive rotation in our fixed rate assets, and we continue to expect positive mix in terms of what's coming on the balance sheet versus what's leaving. So those are kind of the key drivers on the loan and on the deposit and asset side of things. And then in terms of rates, not as much of a big driver between here and the end of the year, but we do -- we continue to plan for a variety of interest rate scenarios. Of course, the one that would be more favorable would be more of an upward sloping curve. But we continue to operate and are very comfortable with our range in any interest rate environment at this particular point in time.

So just to put a pin on it, higher for longer, right? That's how forward curve has migrated over the past several months. What does that mean for you?

So what that means is and why we utilize interest rate risk simulations and try to understand all the different types of scenarios that can happen. In a higher for longer scenario, you're going to have perhaps a little bit more deposit creep in terms of rate paid. You may have a little bit more rotation. But the asset side will benefit from that because you'll have a higher interest rate on the back end of the curve or the belly of the curve, and that will help us with our repricing, whether that's in the investment portfolio or mortgages or whatever the case may be on that fixed rate side. So those things offset. And that's why we try to position our balance sheet to weather any type of environment in that.

Okay. All right. Let's talk a little bit about loan growth then. We all know loan growth light at the industry level, basically plus or minus 1%, depending on the week. And you have a skew to C&I and resi in the loan book. Anything that we should be thinking about here with regard to those books for you, should we be anticipating here at industry level types of growth? Or is there anything you're doing specifically that would drive out performance?

Yes. Broadly speaking, we're going to be right where the industry is in terms of loan growth. So the H8 data is a very good indicator, both in terms of overall levels, but within the subcategory. So a little bit more strength in cards as an example. We're seeing some areas of growth in the commercial and industrial or C&I book, although it is quite modest. And then there's not as much strength in terms of commercial real estate and mortgages are relatively flat. So those are kind of the areas that we're at. And auto would be in another area where we're not as big in just because the spreads aren't there, the returns aren't there for us to be as much of a competitor in that space right now.

Yes. And that's interesting because we hear from others that it's a little bit richer. But maybe that's because you are high end only in auto, you're prime, super prime.

Yes. Prime, super prime. So the spreads are very tight and it's hard to make that return in this environment. That's gotten better over time, but it's still not in an area where we have -- where we feel it's appropriate to put -- place that on the balance sheet.

And then what about on the commercial side, thinking about opportunities there and what do you see the -- how do you compete with private equity if you do at all?

Sure. Well, actually...

I should say private credit.

Yes, private credit. Yes, we operate very well with private credit. They're not as much as a competitor on credit side because the credits that they're into is not as much in our credit box so to speak. And then we partner with them. Andy referred to this in terms of some of the ecosystems on the private credit side. We have great partnerships with a number of those clients in terms of trustee capabilities, helping their underlying clients with banking products administrative activities, things of that variety. So capital markets activity. So we provide a very nice form of services and breadth of services, and we're not a direct competitor to them. So they view us as a very friendly partner in that sense.

Okay. Any -- as we think about the second half of the year moving into round out, the discussion on loan growth. Are there any asset classes that you're thinking of leaning into more or pulling back from? Are there any geographies that are outperforming?

No, I think it's going to be very much similar to how I just described. I think C&I will have some opportunities perhaps. I think commercial real estate is going to be pretty muted from here on out. I think in terms of credit cards, payment rates continue to be -- or spending levels continue to be quite strong. And so we'll see the benefit of that in terms of loans but then auto loans, as I mentioned, just not there. So I think you take the thrust of it, and we expect very modest, nothing heroic in terms of loan growth. So a lot of things canceling out each other effectively.

And John, that's all built into our projections, 16.1% to 16.4%, because what drives a lot of that opportunity because that implies an increase in net interest income over the next 2 quarters, 3 quarters, and that's principally driven by the asset repricing.

That's right. And maybe just to go into that a little bit. I mean the investment portfolio will accrete anywhere from 7 to 8 basis points on average because we have $3 billion or so that's rotating in and out every quarter. We have mortgages that will reprice 5 to 6 basis points positively on average per quarter. And then auto loans, retail leasing, all those things, those -- any fixed rate asset will be beneficial to us going forward. And that's all embedded within the guidance that we provided.

So at this stage, your asset beta is working to your advantage clearly and deposit beta? Is anything happening there or no?

I would say that's slowing as expected. So it's -- we have seen that slow over the last couple of quarters -- several quarters really and has continued that trend for sure.

So we could see a NIM drift upward?

We're seeing -- all that is dependent upon where rates and everything like that. But in terms of the net interest income, as Andy pointed out, we expect this stabilization here in the second quarter and then growth in the back half of the year.

I think simply stated, Betsy, where we were 60 days ago, it's pretty much playing out as we expected.

Got it. Okay. Very good. I want to spend a little time on expenses. You talked earlier, Andy, about the operating leverage that you're anticipating. And I believe your expense guide is $16.8 billion or less, which is down from January 17. So a little bit better. And maybe you could talk to what drove the incremental cost saves here? And is there any more to come?

Sure. So first of all, as you mentioned at the beginning, we've already incorporated the entire savings, $900 million of Union Bank, and that is in the run rate. So that has started already in place. Number 2 is we've invested a lot in the company. Part of that investment is in digital capabilities and backroom processing. We also centralized operations into one group. So the opportunity to leverage those investments in a comprehensive way is one of the key drivers of that. That, coupled with third-party spend, offshoring activity around properties and space, all drive us to believe that we'll be able to keep that flattish expense or actually down a bit into 16.8% this year.

And flattish to down is total expenses, right?

Total expenses, correct.

And then what about technology expenses? I think you mentioned recently that you're now at the part of the curve where technology expenses are flattening out.

That is correct. So we increased dramatically or substantially in the last 5 or 10 years versus where we were -- and we're at about $2.5 billion of spend will continue to be at that level, but it's flat and that's important. The other important component is we were spending about 60% on defense, we've put that around to 60% on offense. And what I mean by that is product capabilities, payments and things I talked about earlier. So that spend level now is in the run rate. We do not expect an additional increase. And the payback of that spend is now coming forward.

So that's clearly key to operating leverage improving.

It is. And that's why we're comfortable with this concept of positive operating leverage, particularly as we go into '25 and '26 in the future.

And where does AI fit into your tech investments [indiscernible] expectations...

Yes, we just said -- we established a center of excellence with AI in the company. We're following the model that we did with digital, and we did a great job with digital, which is this concept of having expertise in a central location and business line connections to have a problem that you need to solve. And while we, as a banking industry, have been using AI for a while, I think there's a step function occurring with Generative AI, things like fraud prevention, customer service, net specs action, marketing effectiveness. So those are all areas that we're very focused on. I do think having a structure in a company that allows expertise in a central location with business line connections is the way to go.

Okay. And you've been a leader in digital for quite some time. So the opportunity set from AI still enables you to do even more.

I think AI is a step function in a new direction. But the structure that we use with digital is the way we're going to organize the company around the opportunity.

And so is it also another element of the efficiency goal outlook?

It is. And I think areas that would be prime for that are fraud prevention, which is an expense driver for sure, customer service, call centers, contact centers and the ability to really solve the customer's problem without having to have a call being made.

And what kind of time frame do you think we're talking about?

Well, there are components. I would say that the expense opportunities for AI are probably more immediate than the revenue opportunities, although those will come as well. But a lot of the operational efficiencies are the use cases we're working on right now.

Okay. So next 3 to 5 years is...

I would say, on the expense side even sooner than that.

Okay. Great. Super. Well, let's turn to credit. It's a topic that we continue to talk about, but we don't see much of it.

That's okay.

Now that said, credit in the industry is normalizing towards pre-pandemic levels. And to your point on the guidance earlier, John, I think you said high 50s...

High 50s, yes...

And 60s and beyond that. Could you help us understand what's driving the upward slope there?

Yes. I think just to reiterate so we expect high 50s for the second quarter in terms of net charge-off and then approaching 60 basis points. And that's just going to be combination of normalizing, as you mentioned, it's coming in as expected. The areas that, obviously, we watch quite a bit, would be in the commercial real estate office, in there, we have a very small book. It's only about -- it's less than 2%, 1.8% if you want to be precise in terms of our total loan book, and then we have a 10% coverage ratio on it. So we feel very appropriately reserved. We don't feel like it's a P&L story for the bank going forward, even though it's going to take a number of years to kind of walk through that -- the office with our clients and getting them through this environment. And then credit cards will be the other area that we're watching. We've continued to see charge-offs normalize. We're now kind of right at or a little bit above where we were pre-COVID levels at just north of 4%. In the second quarter, we would anticipate being a little bit higher, and that's a seasonal driver. And then we would be back to first quarter levels, kind of the third and fourth quarter. Again, that's all kind of embedded into the guide that I just provided overall in terms of net charge-offs.

Importantly, in the end John talked about credit cards, if I work in as a step back and say, we're getting all back to normal. It's sort of pre-COVID levels normalization. We have a little higher credit card mix in our books, so that our overall charge-offs are a little higher, but nothing out of the ordinary. And importantly, as we see -- look at delinquencies, both early and late stage, they are flattening, and that's a positive. So they were sloping up to normal. We weren't sure what would happen when they got to normal and they're flattening, which is a positive sign.

In card?

In card. That's right.

Okay. How should we think about C&I? Because this is one asset class that feels like we have only just started to normalize, but that's me looking at the net charge-offs moving up from like 14 basis points, 5 quarters ago to 36 basis points this most recent quarter. And to me, based on your history, that looks normal, but you tell me how normalized is that?

I think it's -- we're at that normal level basically. We're at a very low level, as you mentioned, kind of pre or post-COVID, just kind of coming out of a lot of stimulus. And now the level has been climbing back up, but it's now at a normal level, and we expect it to be kind of at that level going forward.

Okay. Great. Any other notable trends in the other asset classes in, for example, auto or [indiscernible] mortgage that you want to call it?

Yes, there's nothing notable. The 2 areas, again, credit card and office, and we talked about both of those, and that's again, embedded in the guidance that we just provided.

And resi just looks fantastic, right?

Home valuations are high still. And so that is -- I don't expect any stress there.

Okay. Great. Let's turn to capital. And I know we have a few things going on out there. We've got CCAR and Basel III game that we're looking forward to when we get that final rule coming through. And I know you're focused on building CET1. Let's just start off with CCAR. The scenarios look pretty similar year-on-year. How should we be thinking about any nuances for you in that test?

So I think there are -- the scenarios are similar. You're right. One of the differences for us versus last year is Union Bank. So last year, we had not achieved the full $900 million of cost takeouts. That's now in the run rate. That's a positive. And last year, the last couple of years, we had $1.4 billion of merger-related charges that are now behind us. So those should be 2 normalizing factors that are positive inclinations for the results. Other than that, we're not expecting anything out of the ordinary.

Okay. And on CET1, you're going to be accreting there from earnings less dividends, right? And you've also got some RWA mitigation that you had been doing. Are you still doing those RWA mitigation efforts? Is that...

For the most part, those are behind us, and most of our capital accretion now will be from earnings. And as I mentioned, 20 to 25 basis points a quarter. We're at 10% in the end of the first quarter. We'll continue to accrete. And we'll finalize our capital levels once we get through both CCAR and importantly, the Basel III Endgame final rules and then we'll set the target.

And then on the AOCI piece, there's a pull to par portion. There's also hedging strategies, et cetera, that you employ. Is there anything there that you want to call out on the hedging strategies side?

Yes, I think it's very similar to how we've discussed in the past, but just maybe as a reminder to folks, we continue to expect our AOCI to burn down. We expected kind of in that 25-ish percent area between here and the end of 2025 just as a relative benchmark. We continue to utilize interest rate hedges, particularly pay fixed swaps on the securities book. It's probably in the high 30% range in terms of our total fixed rate book that we hedge with those pay fix swaps. And then to help offset that, we have received fixed swaps on the C&I loans to help and down rate protection. So those are the kind of things that we do to help continue to -- going back to the interest rate risk discussion we just had is just to kind of get us back to normal. So those are the -- those are kind of puts and takes as we think about those securities book.

And when you're allocating capital, are you allocating it based on the CET1 regulatory definition? Or are you bringing in that AOCI or not?

From a business line perspective, yes, we're just looking at it from a regulatory view. That's kind of how we view it.

All right. Got it. And then just a final one here on dividend strategy from the lens of capital accretion. How should we be thinking about dividend strategy here as we're migrating over the next several years?

So dividend growth is important to us. If we think about the priorities for the company, reinvestment in the business, dividend growth and then buybacks. And those are all going to be components of it. When we finalize -- when the rules are finalized, and we have more clarity in terms of what the capital levels will be, we'll actually then describe our capital allocation or distribution strategy, which include both dividends and buybacks at some point in time, but we want to just get clarity on the rules.

Yes, makes sense. I have a few other questions just to round us out here. One is on the decision, Andy, that you made recently to have Gunjan Kedia, move from Vice Chair and Head of Wealth, Corporate, Commercial and Institutional Banking to President overseeing 3 lines of business. So could you help us in your thought process there? And what are you looking for from Gunjan now as we are moving forward and looking forward to seeing how the opportunities are going to present themselves...

Sure. So Gunjan has been with the company about 7 years and she has been just a terrific leader. And about 1.5 years ago, we merged together the wealth and institutional with the corporate and commercial bank. And the absolute opportunity around the team coming together with a customer in the middle and offering this broad array of products and services, one, U.S. Bank sort of thinking was tremendous. And I'm great confidence she's going to do the exact same thing with the entire company. So we think about the payments ecosystem with business banking and overall banking and bringing wealth together with institutional and corporate and commercial in this whole life cycle. The ability to have Gunjan at the point on that and bringing the company together with the customer in the middle is what I'm looking forward to, and I have great confidence that we'll be able to drive that capital efficient growth because of that holistic view.

Super, and I'm looking forward to your Investor Day coming up.

We are, September 12, we'll -- we're looking forward to as well as our first one since COVID so we have a good story to tell.

Great. That will be fantastic. So last question as we wrap up here. Is there anything else you'd want to close out with? What did I miss in my question list?

I don't think you missed anything, Betsy, but -- I'm certain you didn't miss anything. So -- but I would just reiterate what I said. I think what sometimes is underappreciated is this unique set of businesses that we have, they're de-oriented, capital efficient, which drives the growth that we've talked about, which will allow us to have a high tangible return on common, which is really important. And it's interesting because it's unusual fee categories that are different cycles than traditional lending and deposit taking. And that ability to have those businesses, which are hard to replicate, corporate trust we're #1 or 2 in the country, payments, you can't build the payments that we have from ground zero. So this ability to have these set of businesses and intermingle them with the banking components is what our key competitive advantages.

And what are investors missing on the stock?

I think we need to drive top line growth, positive operating leverage and high tangible return, and we will.

Okay. Very good. Thank you so much, Andy.

Thank you.

Thank you, John.

Thank you so much.

I appreciate your time this morning.

Thank you.