UBM Development AG (UBS) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you, Darwin, and good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Thank you for listening in and joining us in the presentation of what was a very strong Q3 as promised. If I had to choose a headline for the presentation, it would be UBM is different, and I guess I've made this comment today in the morning on LinkedIn already. . Just have a look at Slide 3, our summary. Even in an almost toxic environment like the real estate business today, we can present you with a major achievement in halving our half year loss within 1 quarter. We have increased our cash, increased our cash position to more than EUR 0.25 billion, and our equity ratio still is at healthy 30% even after our revaluations. Together with the fact that we have further built out our industry-leading position regarding ESG, our sober outlook might be slightly easy to digest through this. The weak market, we believe, is going to continue, and it is survival of the fittest without exaggeration. Let us have a more detailed look into what I just said. Please go with me to Chart #4. We already talked about our success with the F.A.Z. Tower and the acquisition of the Timber Marina Tower in our last call. I'm not sure if everyone, however, is aware of the building permits, which we have been granted in Q3 and the beginning of Q4 for LeopoldQuartier, the former Willy Bogner headquarters in Munich and the project opposite Olympiapark underground station in Munich called Pelkovenstrasse. This means, in other words, that one of the biggest risks in our business, the timely granting of billing permits does not exist further for three large-sized projects. On the bond side, we have not only witnessed us raising money as late as in July, believe it or not, but also reliably repaying at the due or step-up dates. Next slide, please. Slide #5. If you wondered what the new projects with building permits are going to look like, just have a look at the right-hand side renderings. I think they are also aesthetically fulfilling our promise of more, now 72% of our pipeline from this, of timber construction with the number rising. This represents roughly 3,300 apartments and 12 office projects. You think we are great? Not at all. We are producing what is desperately needed in our markets, a roof over your heads, and office space, which invites people to return to the office regularly and with pleasure rather than fear. Germany and Austria still represent 90% of our pipeline, and the mix between office and resi is approximately half and half. Let me now hand over to Patric, who is going to present the real highlights, the financial highlights in the best sense of the word. Please, Patric?

Thank you, Thomas. Good morning, everybody. Please turn to Slide #6. During the first 9 months of 2023, the transaction market remained stagnant, showing no significant changes. It's undisputed, the real estate industry is experiencing an existential crisis, despite the fact our Q3 standalone was a positive one for UBM when it comes to our P&L numbers. Just as a reminder, UBM issued a profit warning in August due to updated valuations by our surveyors, resulting in write-downs of EUR 31.3 million and a negative impact on our half year results, leading to an EBT of minus EUR 31.6 million. Our goal was to reduce this loss by half. The chart illustrates that our EBT has improved by EUR 14.2 million in the third quarter of this year still leaving us at minus EUR 17.4 million EBT at the end of the third quarter. As promised in the last call, we have managed to cut the loss in half. The reason behind this positive impact was the closing of the Bauberg deal as we received the construction permit for the timber factory project in Munich, which is a great success, but also a child of its time. Equity stood at EUR 418 million, reflecting an increase compared to June 30, but compared to the year-end figure of 2022, it is still a reduction. This is attributable not only to the negative net income in the first half, but also to the premature repayment of the 2018 hybrid bond in March affecting our equity ratio as per IFRS accounting standards. Our equity ratio is currently around 30%, still within our target range of 30% to 35%. LTV is also down with 44% compared to the last quarter, but has risen in comparison to full year 2022. In summary, our balance sheet exhibits resilience, providing UBM with some flexibility on the time line, waiting for the revival of the transaction market. Let's move on to the next slide, looking at the key metrics that we monitor daily. There is no doubt that cash is the most crucial asset at present. We are working hard to preserve our cash position and therefore -- and are therefore proud that we have been able to increase liquidity by EUR 39 million in the third quarter. Overall, the cash reserve was at more than EUR 250 million by end of September. In the third quarter, there were essentially two significant factors for the increase. Firstly, the successful issuance of UBM's first green bonds; and secondly, the closing payment from our partner concerning the timber factory, Baubergerstrasse triggered by the granted [indiscernible]. Let me also mention that we nevertheless did something for our project pipeline also in 2023. We acquired the Timber Marina Tower in Vienna as well as close the transaction of the Timber Port project in Düsseldorf. Additionally, we have repaid a hybrid bond prematurity. To sum it up, our current cash position is solid, managing cash remains our top priority for the foreseeable future. Let's now go to Chart #8. Let me start with the left-hand side of the chart. We are talking here about the refinancing on project level, giving the banks in charge of the security of the asset itself. This is very different to the right-hand side of the chart where we talk about unsecured loans. The projects behind the numbers are the LeopoldQuartier in Vienna, Amras, the residential project in Innsbruck, the Sugar Palace in Bogner. These projects have one thing in common, their financing term ends on the 31st of December this year, and all of them are prolongations and not new business for the banks in charge. Sugar Palace is a development financing in its nature. Since the transaction market also in the asset class hotel remains stagnant, we decided to go for a prolongation. As we are now having a standing instead of a development, we need to accept an LTV in the range of 50%. In the LeopoldQuartier, we are entering the phase of construction soon for the plots A, C and also D and therefore, the low changes from a land plot financing to a development financing. In Bogner, we need the prolongation of the land plot financing, but have the advantage that we received through construction permit and because of the fourth quarter. Same is true for Amras, with the difference that we have not yet received the necessary permit and therefore, need to prolong the financing of the land plot. All the mentioned project financing are in the final stage, and all our bank partners will stay on board. This is business as usual, and it is fair to assume that the contracts will be signed in December. Does that mean we will receive the full amount? No. Since some of the project financings are changing their nature or being simply delayed, we will have some shortfall compared to the current credit amount. As mentioned on the chart, we are talking about approximately 10%. Let's now turn our attention to the right side of the slide. As already mentioned in the last call, we took the window of opportunity in a very challenging market environment in June and issued UBM's trust green bond. We are satisfied with the retail market's demand for our new product allowing us to place EUR 50 million. This demonstrates that despite the highly challenging times, we continue to have access to the capital market. After initiating a tender offer for the redemption of the 2018 bond in November, the redemption amount has decreased from EUR 120 million to EUR 91 million in the fourth quarter of this year. Yet the most crucial point from this graph is the absence of repayments from the fourth quarter of 2023 to the fourth quarter of 2025, I think a real advantage compared to other competitors. I also want to emphasize our focus on green financing. This will remain an important point for us in the future and leads us to the sustainability-related content of our quarterly presentation. Please, Thomas.

Thank you, Patric. Another request that we have is do not make the mistake to underestimate the power of sustainability. Our industry leadership continues. We belong to the top 1% of all companies assessed by EcoVadis, and we have even further improved our score. What will help us in the future is a brand-new lease framework, which changes the dynamics between the landlord and the tenant completely. This is in so far relevant for you and UBM as the landlord is the investor who buys our projects. And my expectation is that the combination of wood construction and green lease agreement is going to be almost unbeatable. As mentioned before, UBM is in a pole position once the transaction market opens up again. One more slide on ESG because it is going to be there when all the current crisis is gone, Slide #10. At UBM, we are once more setting industry standards. We have started to measure our full corporate carbon footprint. Adding up Scope 1, 2 and 3 sources, we produced more than 26,000 tons of CO2 equivalents per year. 26,000, I was surprised, based on an external reader, by the way. By measuring our current footprint, we are not only helping our ESG rating and meeting reporting obligations, we are also making sure that we identify our hotspots and avoid any suspicion of greenwashing. What is new to the industry is that we have introduced near-term targets. By 2030, we are committed to reduce our Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 42%. Now Scope 1 and 2 are only "representing 9% of our total emissions and 91% behind Scope 3". So what is Scope 3? Scope 3 represents all sources outside our own control other than emissions from third-party energy supplies. This is Scope 2, by the way, in other words, all activities which can be linked to our core activities such as transportation or garbage as well as emissions of our project once we have sold them. With our timber construction geothermic initiatives as well as the other measures, we are confident to reduce Scope 3 emissions by 90% in 2050 compared with 2022, which is the reference mark. Let me come to the end of our formal presentation and ask you to please turn to Slide #11. We expect a loss for the full year, and this should not come as a surprise to you. It is the result of revaluations and affects the entire industry. Markets will remain volatile, at least for the first half of 2024. This is at least our expectation, and I'm afraid to say we have been proven right in the past for too many times, as we see more bankruptcies and expect a recession in our core markets. The recovery will be slow, but it will significantly benefit the survivors. With UBM's range of products and are almost ruthless orientation to sustainability, we believe to be first choice for the first addresses of real estate investors. This is further fostered by the fact that the undersupply of projects will meet a growing demand. It's always dangerous to draw conclusions from the past. However, it is almost a law of nature that an imbalance of demand and supply leads to changes in prices. With the majority of projects being canceled or postponed in the market, this should impact those positively who still are in a position of executing projects like UBM. With this, I would like to thank you for your attention and open the lines for questions.

[Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Stefan Scharff with SRC Research.

Stefan here from SRC Research. My first question is about the permit from Munich, Baubergerstrasse. Your initial plans were that it's mixed also with a part of residential, and now this project will just be commercial. So what does this mean for your costs? And also what does this mean for your revenues? This is the first question. And the second question is about Düsseldorf. You acquired the Timber port project about 1 year ago with 10,000 square meters in the Düsseldorf media harbor. Perhaps you can tell us a bit more here about your schedule here for this important project, which is -- which has almost the same size like Timber Pioneer in Frankfurt.

Excellent questions, Stefan, and thank you for them. Let me answer the first question by saying one thing that is for sure, it had a positive impact on the purchase price, the change in mix. Because we also got a high-rise building permitted, which is office space. And therefore, we got more money than was originally anticipated because of this improved and extended use. We strongly believe in resi in Munich. Otherwise, we wouldn't start that Bogner project as soon as possible. And we are also confident that the new products that we are developing, which is this trade company mix there, if you want, [ Mittelstand's ] company there, the ones that didn't find a home in Munich is a lag in the market and will be under huge demand. But there is very little evidence at the moment that we can produce from our own experience. We know that the prices have risen over proportionately for these areas. And it's going to be interesting how our marketing efforts are going to influence these prices. In summary, cost-wise, it is a positive one, because it's simpler, it's more simply to build this commercial space. And on the leasing side, we are pretty confident knowing even from our own shareholders that they are looking for such space and couldn't find any in the last 3 years, and kind of friendly pressure that we got from the [indiscernible], from the [indiscernible], I believe that this is going to be under a lot of demand. And as I said in my presentation, demand and supply commands the prices. So we believe if there is an impact it should be a positive one. Overall, because of the office space, and we don't expect any reduction in the profitability from that side, from that side. On the second question, which is our Timber port in Düsseldorf, also a very good one. The project got a bit delayed because we had to swap properties, very small properties in order to get an ideal layout. This is done now. And again, while the Düsseldorf market regarding office space in general is not as good as the Vienna or Munich market, which is one of -- the two are one of the best, we believe that there is a demand, particularly in the median half and particularly opposite the Tobago headquarters, so that we are also pursuing this project and do not want to delay it artificially if this was a little bit behind your question. You're not quite right because Timber Pioneer is 16,000 square meters, and this is just below 10,000 square meters. As I said, it is a significant project, and we are very much looking forward to do a development in the capital of North and West Austria where we haven't been present for a while.

Is it true? I could read somewhere that you already rented 3,000 square meter in Düsseldorf -- to the city of Düsseldorf?

No, that would be too good to be true. And usually, what is good to be true is not true. But we are in talks, interestingly, now not only for this office this project, but also for other office projects. Because with so many office projects having been canceled, okay, there seems to be a lack of supply. Now these are loose talks, and we have to see once we execute it. And it's a narrow path we are working at the moment because we don't want to conclude any rental contracts for not even started projects now as we see that the rent levels are going to outperform in the next 3 years.

Okay. Okay. And speaking about rental contracts, how about Frankfurt, the Timber Pioneer where you have some square meters to rent?

Look, the short answer would be difficult, okay? The long answer is, bear in mind, we are still holding the record for the single biggest lease transaction in Frankfurt in the first 9 months with 10,000 square meters. Now we have 4,000 square meters of office space left. And as it always is, if you have one very dominant tenant, it will be probably small lessors that are looking for this space. And that means a completely different cloud tail to look for. And we have on the ground floor, 1,600 square meters that are about to be concluded with a food retailer and a gym. So we believe that we are making progress there. But we can't say it's fully rented out, and we go into the marketing phase to sell it.

We have the next question from the line of Simon Stippig with Warburg Research.

Some questions, a couple from my side. First one would be in regard to project financing, and thank you for a detailed explanation. In your presentation, you saw the interest cost increase, and that was mainly coming from project financing. Here my question would be, can we expect that this has plateaued? Or maybe differently asked, what were the -- or what are the current indications? And then also in regard to those loans, you expected or you will most likely close in the end of this year, could you give an indication also on the duration of the project financing? And then if you could comment on the capital -- the total capital allocated to those EUR 157 million in project financing. And then I will ask my other questions.

Okay, Simon. Quite some questions. So to the first one, why did the cost increase? Predominantly because the Euribor increased as they are our normal project financing, and that has not changed dramatically, it's a variable one. And therefore, as the Euribor is changing also the project financing is increasing. Does that mean that the basics behind it, so the interest rate which is going to the bank is not increasing? No. And it's also increasing. We see that the risk margin of the projects, the banks are taking a little bit more, but it's between zero if we are lucky and something like 60 to 70 basis points if we are less lucky on the prolongations of any kind of project financing. On your question regarding the EUR 157 million, how much of this is in terms of peak, normally, we are talking here about levels of LTV like 50% to 60% -- or let me say, 60% financing and 40% equity. If it is an office project in development, if it is a resi project, it's a little bit better. Normally, it's 70% to 75% of project financing in the rest of gig, and the rest is equity. The second question, can you remind me on this one, please?

It was -- one was on the duration.

Yes, duration, correct. So what is the duration on the prolongations? I mean the duration, if we, for example, take the Sugar Palace where we are going into the standing financing I was talking about, that is, for example, a 3-year duration. If we go for a duration like Amras, where we are in the land plot financing and waiting for the development, it's more 1 year. So that depends on the nature. If it is a pure development, we are normally going to 4 years and a bit. Because we want to have no stress in selling it on. But that hasn't changed dramatically to the policy we had before. That was always our policy to be a little bit longer in the development financing than the excess date. So normally, we talk about half a year or a year later where we are -- need to prolong or either have sold the project. These are the two options we have there. Question answered?

Question would be answered. Just one quick or short follow-up on that because then, all in all, also is some of the project financing now comes to your standing financing. So it moves from variable to fixed. And it's more likely that interest costs will have plateaued for the next couple of quarters.

Correct. So if we go into fixed ones, that happens also that either the bank is asking for it or we say we are going for it, so have a fixed time instead of a variable one. We are talking about the plateaued cost item. If the Euribor is increasing still. I don't know, we maybe see also increasing still interest rates on our side or interest costs on our side. If we assume that it has plateaued, we are basically there where we are.

Yes. Okay. Okay. Great. And then second question would be -- second topic would be in regard to revaluation. And in your notes, we can see that there is some additional negative revaluation. Maybe you can comment on that. And one additional question in regard to this is the equity ratio. It's at the lower end of your target range. Just going forward, is it -- are you feeling confident with that? And then do you expect that this -- you will stay at maybe at the lower end or maybe you can proceed into the range again over the next, let's say, 4 quarters. Just a little bit of understanding how you see your target range.

Okay. Revaluations, third quarter, so the predominant one was a shopping center in Poland, where we have seen data points around us that the current multiple on selling a shopping center is more in the range of 10 than what we assumed before. So we had to reevaluate that due to the data points, as I said, around us. And therefore, that was a predominant effect in the third quarter regarding revaluations. On the equity ratio, you are right with the lower end. What do I expect at year-end? If we are not seeing major revaluations, which I can't exclude, but I also have no indication to say there are some, it's simply glass ball reading. If we are not seeing them, I would say the equity ratio might be -- even get a little bit of tail wind because of the shortening of the balance sheet. And regarding increasing the equity, that is a little bit a difficult one, if you are not selling things, right? Because without selling, you won't make any profits. Without profit, you won't make any equity. So it's coming from a shortening of the balance sheet, and the biggest effect on the shortening is that we paid back the EUR 91 million. Do I see that the equity ratio is increasing further? As I'm saying, that depends predominantly on how we're able to sell and what is the selling price we are assuming at the market or what can we materialize at the market when we sell. So that is a very difficult one, but we are at the lower end, and I expect we stay there for quite a while.

Sure. That's helpful. And last one would be in regard to the dividend. Do you have any update? And as I know, you paid the dividend continuously since 2003. And I mean, with your cash of EUR 250 million, not adjusted, of course, for the bond outflow and your small shortfall, but -- your small shortfall in revaluation and you got the project financing. But is it -- can you give any indication in that regard, do you intend to pay a dividend, or do you rather say, okay, it's unclear what's happening in 2024? But also some comments would be helpful here.

Well, Simon, let me try it. I mean the standard answer would be it's too early to talk about the dividend, but I don't want to escape this question. I have a slightly different look at it. I don't look at the cash, I look at the profitability. And my conviction is if there is no profit, okay, there's nothing to distribute. This is unfortunately also true for my bonus and the bonus of the guys sitting around me, and this is the way the cookie crumbles, I guess. This is how you phrase it in English. But too early to talk about it. And you mentioned something interesting. Because we said we have a dividend policy of continuity, always make -- always having made clear that it, of course, depends on the overall profitability level. And it is also a result of what we expect in the future. And our outlook is a sober one for 2024. If we believe that the markets are turning anytime soon because we are seeing a turn, not the plateau, a turn in interest rate, we would have a different situation. But if you ask me from today's view, and if I were the one to decide the dividend and not only to suggest it, I think I would -- it's difficult to answer the question positively. The fact is you will get this information on 11th of April. And before this, everything is speculation, but I think you can read between the lines of what I said.

Thank you. There are no further questions at this time. I would now like to hand the conference back over to Thomas Winkler for closing comments. Over to you, sir.

Thank you, Darwin. Thank you bearing with us. I hope you also have such a beautiful day as we have in Vienna. And as I said, I would have never believed that I would be excited about the negative results of EUR 15 million, but I can tell you, this time I am. In a market, as we are seeing right now, it is all about relative strength. And from this point of view, we've been very satisfied with the third quarter. I hope you are, too. And I hope you are kind of having as much trust in us as we see with all the other stakeholders. And with this, we have a pretty long break this time because we have 5 months until the next conference call, but the last felt like 6 weeks ago. So from that point of view, I also take the opportunity to send my season's greetings to you for those with whom I'm not going to have a conversation before Christmas. And goodbye from everyone on our side here.