UBS Group AG (UBSG) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everyone. I'm pleased to be joined by Sergio Ermotti, CEO of UBS this morning. And Sergio, thank you for being with us and welcome. So -- but before I start with asking you questions, let me ask yet another polling question and this one is UBS specific. So what do you expect in terms of long-term return on CET1 potential for UBS? Below 12%, 12%, 15%, 15%, 18% or above 18%.

Okay. Interesting split. We can go back to that. But my first question, of course, has got to be on capital. So what can you tell us about your conversations with the Swiss government and what the market can expect to learn in May?

Well, I think nothing has really changed compared to what we communicated back in February, early February. I think that the plan seems to be the one of opening a public consultation process towards the second half of May in respect of how to address the proposals of the investigating commission's findings. And there -- the expectations are still quite uncertain because it depends if this goes through an ordinance process in which then you can see the process of public consultation then translate into a fairly quick implementation or I mean, relatively quick implementation or if any part of the proposals have to go through a legislative process, then of course, that would also mean it takes much longer, a couple of years. It's a political process. So we are not really in control. So that has to be clear in respect of our interactions. We do our -- what we are supposed to do. I think that we are contributing to the discussions. It's not a negotiation. As I mentioned a few times, it's all about making sure that all decision-makers can take a decision based on facts without any emotions or wrong assumptions. And so we will see. So we are also waiting and seeing that. But I'm not so sure that in May it is going to be crystal clear, the outcome. And so -- but we're probably going to see a little bit more of a reduced uncertainty by May.

And if I can follow up, UBS has announced a 3 billion buyback for this year, 2 billion of which is contingent upon what remains there on the capital -- of the new capital regime. But given that potentially the most punitive part has been postponed by a couple of years and -- does this mean that, well, we will see what we learn in May. But can this mean that we can -- the chance of having a 3 billion buyback for this year has increased? And then also for next year, you may stick to the original plan, i.e., '26 buyback above '22. And then when the parliament votes, the regime may change and therefore, the capital distribution policy at that point may change.

Well, look, I mean, I think that for -- going back to the first question, I think that, of course, one of the condition that we are putting around capital returns is not only keeping our 14% CET1 ratio and delivering on our financial targets, we are going through 2025. It's a very delicate moment under which -- I think, in our integration. So we have a huge migration of the Swiss platform and then that's where we're going to also unlock the next of the big chunk of synergies. So this -- all things are playing together. And in that sense, so we will also dictate how we do it in terms of financial performance. This -- we believe that the momentum we have is pretty good. We are confident enough that we started the share buyback program. So we executed half of the 1 billion that we were forecasting for the first half of the year. We do expect the second part to be done in the second quarter. And as we start now very soon the migration of Swiss clients into the UBS platform, we will reinforce our ambition to execute the second part of the share buyback. So I do believe it's credible. Unless we have an unexpected immediate outcome from this review of the load, I think that we can remain confident about 2025 plans. For 2026, nothing has changed. That's still an ambition. And as every year, we will determine and talk about how we implement our strategy early on in 2026. So nothing is changing because in 2026, again, we are going to see the conditions that I just mentioned are still valid. So we will -- we cannot jump start and trying to anticipate what's going to happen in 2026. I believe that we are on a good path in terms of achieving our financial targets. We are executing on the strategy. I'm confident that also the business model develops in the way we were expecting. So there are no reasons for us to change our ambitions but we are not in control of the full lot here.

Clear. So if now we talk about the integration process instead. In '24, you achieved many important milestones, the merger of the legal entities, the first client migrations. So if you look into 2025, what are the milestones that you're most looking forward to? And perhaps what is keeping you up at night? What worries you the most?

Well, look, every -- since we started exactly 2 years ago, the journey, we always thought that the first or the next challenge will be the most significant. Having say that, now we are in the last one, the most delicate one. I mean we -- it's more of a logistical challenge than it is a integration. I mean, if I go back into 2023, 2024, it was all about getting -- stabilizing the franchise, being -- our new colleagues but also the UBS colleagues, stabilizing clients, restructuring the balance sheet, taking down noncore assets, merging legal entities. So to some extent, we were able to address this issue in a way that was a mix of issues that contributed to our success. Now we are going into a big chunk of -- a big chunk of the next phase is driven by IT migration. So we successfully migrated 15 petabytes of data outside Switzerland. So in terms of client migration of -- in Hong Kong, Singapore, Luxembourg, Japan and so on. But now we have 95 petabytes of data that needs to be migrated. So 1 petabyte of data, many of you know, is 500 billions of A4 pages. And so we are migrating 1 million clients in 3 ways, between the end of this month and the first part of 2026. So although I believe that the team is doing a great job in planning, this is a very delicate moment. I'm very convinced that we're going to deliver on that. But the real issue is not if we deliver or not, are we delivering on time and within our cost assumptions. That's the real challenge. So again, that's the reason why it's the most delicate part of the exercise, is the one where clients will start to feel that we are making a change because for many of them, it means changing their relationship, their account numbers. And so there is a complication but I'm confident that we have a good plan but we cannot be complacent about this. This is really unprecedented migration.

Perfect. And so if I can follow up, you mentioned costs. UBS has already achieved 58% of the gross cost savings ambitions. So where do you see the additional cost savings coming from?

Well, that part I just mentioned is a big chunk because de facto, although we achieved all the mergers at legal entities, we are now running, as a bank from a legal entity standpoint of view. When you look at -- in the Swiss business, we are still running 2 separate systems and infrastructures. So I mean, the fact that we are still running a big chunk of a systemic bank in 1 country, 2 of them under the same roof, there is a lot of the synergies and costs that will be eliminated by migrating clients into 1 platform. So that's a big one. So again, then we have another chunk of costs to be taken out in noncore and our real estate footprint is clearly there. As we go into the end of 2025 and 2026, we can start to disconnect the data centers, the servers. We're also going to be able to implement further headcount optimizations. So it's a different blocks but I would say the biggest one by far is IT decommissioning and servers and data centers. And so then that's the delta of 5.5 billion of cost savings that will come out of that.

Perfect. So let's talk about the business now. There is a lot happening from a geopolitical perspective in the U.S., in Europe, in Asia as well. So how is that impacting your client, your business? And perhaps if you can give us a comment on how the year has started, how the client sentiment is?

Well, I think that I'm, not surprisingly, consensus that we saw towards the end of '24 and beginning of 2025 has turned out to be totally wrong. So in that sense, it's quite important and continues to be very important for us to stay close to clients and help them to navigate this very volatile environment. We do see that clients are looking for mandate solutions. They are also keen to diversify even more in this environment. So I have to say that in this environment, our business mix, our geographic diversification plays out very well. So I'm -- it's almost like another time of a validation that at times of uncertainties, clients seek advice and solution. They do appreciate our diversification and our ability to serve clients in a different way, in different places in the world is very good. So I'm not going to go into commenting on the first quarter other than saying that I'm pretty confident that we are able to fulfill our targets and not only in terms of cost and -- but also in terms of how we grow the business and how we will then contribute to achieving our targets of mid-teens returns on capital and below 70% cost/income ratio.

Perfect. Let's talk about the most important division, Global Wealth Management. And maybe I would like to start with the U.S. because you have presented a new plan to increase PBT all the way to 15% and there were a lot of details around how you're going to get there. So how has this been received internally? And how is the progress year-to-date?

We are making good progress. The journey started a few quarters ago. So I think that we have been more clear about how we execute on the strategy. But when I look at -- our goal is now to -- and I always say, it's unlikely that we will be able to close the gap to our U.S. peers for different reasons. But for sure, we are able and we will be able to narrow the gap significantly in terms of how we perform. So we are working across different dimensions in order to achieve a first level of minimum profitability, is this 15% and so that we then can jump into the next ambition. But there are no silver bullets to achieve that. So that's the reason why we need to leverage better our current franchise in terms of very good penetration with ultra high -- ultra clients and family offices, working closer together also with the investment bank in the U.S. is very important, not only in banking but also in solutions and markets activities. We can fine-tune our penetration of high net worth clients. It's not a revolution. We are not changing the strategy. This is quite clear also in the way we have been communicating where we see a potential change in composition of our asset base. We are working on cost. We are working on giving our adviser better tools to enhance productivity. We are working on product capabilities that the national charter will allow us to have a broader set of deposit capabilities and also be more competitive on credit. So there are different areas where we really work on in order to achieve our targets. I'm very happy with the way things are moving on and there is a good momentum but still it's a marathon. It's not a sprint. It's not going to be something that we're going to fix in a few quarters. But it's very important to show continuous improvements.

Clear. And if we look at GWM outside of the U.S., UBS is the clear leader in Asia, in EMEA, Switzerland, LatAm and you're targeting PBT margins above 40% there. So let's start with Asia. How do you see the prospects for growth in this region?

Well, I think I have to say that we were very pleased with the strong results we achieved last year despite the fact that our people in Asia were quite immersed into the integration. So the integration is now over. So the first -- and so I'm pretty confident that we can -- confident that we can now tackle the topic in terms of growing and enhancing productivity in a more focused way. We still see good momentum in terms of wealth creation. I think the most recent positive developments in the Asian markets and China in terms of market performance, will bring, I'm sure, monetization opportunities, which is very constructive for our business in terms of asset growth. So one of the big engine of net new money in our business globally but also in Asia, is monetization. Of course, if we don't see the return of capital markets activities and IPOs and so on, it's very difficult to just grow only based on GDP and wealth creation. But -- so across the board, I do see a lot of opportunities and also the need of Asian investors to diversify is intact. And so there it's pretty good. So in Switzerland and Europe, we also see good momentum. I mean, if I go back only on growth in terms of net new money last year, even in Switzerland, which was definitely a very competitive market for us, we were able to grow net new money. And so it shows that we still have engine of growth and clients do appreciate our capabilities and our comprehensive offering.

I was actually going to ask about EMEA and Switzerland. Covering European banks, it seems to me like, it's -- the wealth space in Europe is incredibly competitive. Everyone wants to do more wealth. So how are you navigating the competition in this region?

No, look, we -- of course, we take very seriously the competitive dynamics. Fortunately enough, it takes more than an ambition to build up a wealth management franchise. It takes years and it takes capabilities. So in a sense, we are still benefiting from the fact that we are the leader and we are able to have a comprehensive offering. But of course, when you look -- you go down at domestic levels, local banks are quite competitive in being able to offer a more focused business in terms of maybe credit access linked to wealth management. So we are trying really to make credit a tool to facilitate a wealth management relationship and not the other way around. So that's the most challenging part in competing with more traditional commercial banks that wants to expand in wealth. That's -- we But we stay focused and we are still going through a rationalization of our capabilities in Europe in terms of leveraging our platforms and focusing on the next phase of growth. The most recent positive developments in Europe may bring back a little bit of momentum, hopefully, in terms of growth and we'll -- we are prepared to capture that.

Perfect. And then if we move on to the Investment Bank instead, I would say Q4 was a standout with the underlying PBT double, what consensus was expecting. So do you see this momentum continuing? And perhaps more strategically, how do you get to that 15% return on capital?

Again, I have to say that we are very pleased that post the first phase of the integration in 2023, in 2024, we already saw a significant improvement in our market share across all dimensions where we want to compete. Of course, we are not competing on every single aspect of the investment bank business. But in these areas where we want to compete and be a leader in equities, in FX, in capital markets activities and in many industries in banking, we see significant improvements of our market share. And now, I continue to see a good momentum in that sense. So of course, now if I look at markets, so basically, in equities and fixed income, the situation is quite different than the one we see in banking. Banking fees are year-to-date down high single digits. And I believe we're going to be more or less aligned with that kind of numbers. For us, it's very important to continue to perform with the market and improve our market share there. In terms of everything else in markets, in equities and fixed income and FX, we see very good momentum in gaining share of wallet and market share. So I do -- when -- in order to get to the 15%, of course, we need to have a more vibrant or normalized capital markets environment. So if the expectations that we had towards the end of 2024, early part of '25 would have materialized in the first quarter, we would be able to get to that kind of returns.

Already?

Well, I mean that's -- it's a big chunk of the extra -- of the next 5 points of returns because we were at around 10%. So if we want to get to the 15%, it's going to come with banking being able to execute on a very promising pipeline. The problem is no longer do we get mandates, do we get access but it's all about, is the market there to execute. And so if the market opens, we're going to be part of it. So I'm -- but this is not a game that we are in control of. What we can control is share of wallet and market share and this is where we are very determined to continue to do what we announced as our strategic priorities.

Perfect, clear. If I can ask about instead of the Swiss Bank PCB. So their NII, net interest income is expected to decline, although the curve moves. So I was checking this morning, now it's expected at 50 basis points maybe. But with rates heading lower, how can you mitigate the negative impact of the drag essentially on NII, on the bottom line?

Well, I'm afraid that like we saw in the last cycle, it means that we're going to have to put more efforts on fee-generating non-NII lines. I think that's if -- when rates goes down to 0 or close to 0, is inevitably clear that part of the profitability -- the banking system will probably try to find other ways to offset this reduction of revenues by recalibrating the pricing of our product capabilities. So that's one way to do it. The other one, not to be underestimated for us is that there's still a level of distraction having 2 banks in Switzerland, not fully integrated and not fully able to leverage the opportunities that we see out there. So I do see that in the second part of 2026, when the merger of -- the logistical merger is over, people will be able to focus on that. Short term, as I mentioned before, the migration is a distraction but it's not an excuse. So I do believe we will continue to deliver on our trajectory of -- that will bring the business at delivering below 50% cost/income ratio post migration.

Thank you. So before I ask more questions, let me just see if someone in the room wants to ask a question.

I have 2 question. The first one is, I don't know if you will be able to answer but there was a comment from the Chairman of the FINMA yesterday, which was open about allowing a long transitioning phase but with the full [ deduction ] of participation in foreign subsidiary. Any view on that? And my second question is whether there is a risk of Credit Suisse client attrition once the merger, the IT -- once you have 1 IT platform?

Yes, of course, well, on the first one, I really don't want to comment. I don't think it's appropriate for me to make comments or speculation about this, what has been said. I think that's having a longer term -- other than saying that having a longer transition doesn't change the substance. On clients attrition, I think that, of course, we may see -- when a client is facing this issue of having to change their account numbers and relationship, they may have a temptation maybe to change the bank. I think that's -- it's fair to say that the clients that wanted to do that already done it, many of them. But I don't think this is going to be an element of -- that's it's going to be material. And on the other hand, I'm pretty convinced, as I mentioned before, that once the transition is over, our people can refocus on growth. And so the 2 will more than offset. So we will make every efforts to make this transition journey for our clients as smooth as possible and minimizing any disruption. But I don't think it's the most important topic for us.

Perfect. There is another question.

So this is the second time you come back, although you never left. And it's a long time since we've seen the rest of the world potentially doing better than the U.S. and the U.S. dollar not being the leading currency. If you have to put key metrics for your group of how you would be successful in potentially that transition, whether it's discretionary mandates, whether making sure your CIO office gets the right allocation, whether it's equities. I mean, how do we assess that you've been successful in that potential transformation of asset allocation?

That's -- look, at the end of the day, I believe that it's our ability to continue to grow our asset base well above GDP growth. So from our standpoint of view is retaining best-in-class capabilities. I'm thinking here about not only in the traditional asset allocation but also, for example, in the space of alternatives. That's very important. It's very important for us to be seen by clients as a place where you can get the best products available at the most attractive conditions. And this is possible because, for example, through the unified alternative group that we created, we established the fifth largest alternative LP provider. And that, for example, brings us the capabilities to differentiate ourselves in a way that no other big wealth manager can do. So growth in terms of product capabilities but also in terms of geographic diversification will continue to be essential. So narrowing the gap in productivity and profitability in the U.S. remains crucial. Reinforcing our leadership in Asia, it's important, reinforcing our position in every single market we are operating with, it's very important. So I do believe that it's -- to achieve that, it's very important that we keep the synergies between our Wealth Management and Investment Bank very, very close and leveraging the best-in-class capabilities we have. So as I mentioned before, growing assets without seeing a lot of activity in capital markets will be more challenging. So that's the one thing that I would say is -- can make a big difference for us is normalization of capital markets activity is a huge boost of growth.

Perfect. Let's see if there are -- yes, Ian here. It's coming.

In the U.S. Wealth Management business, could you talk a little bit about client origination funnels? It's something that some of the competitors have worked quite hard on to reduce the dependency on the relationship managers and to broaden the scope of where the clients come from and therefore, to perhaps have the brand on the unit economics more than the relationship manager, which is something which I think you do exceptionally well outside of the U.S. but evidently so far has been more challenging in the U.S.

Yes. I mean this -- as you mentioned, is not more challenging only for us in the U.S., is a -- if you go back historically, it's fair to say that when a client adviser leaves UBS, on average, we retain more than 80% of the assets. And that was also quite interesting to see on the Credit Suisse front despite all the turmoil and all activities, we saw the client loyalty and the ability for the combined bank to retain assets was extremely high. In the U.S., it's almost the other way around. It's coming down. And the way you really reduce this kind of -- or enhance your retention rate is by institutionalizing relationship more with credit, with banking services that ties the client relationship closer to the bank. The other topic is, as I mentioned before, is diversifying slightly the mix of -- the client mix. So if you -- there is definitely a higher degree of retention when you go down to the high net worth and affluent business than you have with the bigger ultra or family office clients. So that's the reason why strategically, we need to just do a little bit of shifts around different dimensions to product, client diversification and business mix is going to help to do that. But that's really much a U.S. business model and it's not going to change in the foreseeable future. So I do not expect this number to go anytime soon, any closer to what we have outside the U.S.

Do we have other questions? Okay. Let me ask you one on artificial intelligence. How is UBS approaching artificial intelligence? And do you have any use cases that you can share with us that you are most excited about?

Well, look, we have been, like I'm sure many of the people here already quite advanced in using the first and second generation of artificial intelligence in our day-to-day business. So I think that we currently have internal tools that allow our client advisers in Switzerland, Singapore and Hong Kong to have access to chatbots especially, around 20,000 people using easy to access capabilities in order to get insight on products, services. And in the Investment Bank, we are already deploying artificial intelligence for monitoring, not only business trading activities but also on M&A ideas. And we are now -- we are rolling out the largest deployment of Copilot licenses in the banking industry, 50,000 licenses. So basically, every other person at UBS has a Copilot license. And this is not in itself transformational but it gives the incentive in the organization to start to experiment and use artificial intelligence to bring us to the next level. What we are focusing now is definitely how can we further accelerate and embrace the next generation of AI into our business. And our focus right now is 80% on improving efficiency. 20% is improving top line. So roughly speaking, that's where we want to really tackle the issues. It's absolutely critical that we continue to invest in this area. And I'm totally convinced that it's also not only necessary in order to get better efficiency but also the effectiveness of how we, for example, monitor processes in the bank, in the AML space, KYC and in the way we generate -- we monitor our treasury operations, in the way we monitor our risks in the organization is quite transformational. And so this is where we believe that we can achieve both efficiencies but also a more -- an even more resilient operating model.

Clear. And I want to go back to the alternatives, the 250 billion that you mentioned. So what is the penetration at the moment in your wealth management client assets? And where do you think it can go when it comes to alternatives and perhaps private credit specific, if you can comment?

Well, by now, they are almost [ 300 ], almost [ 290 ]. So I mean it's quite an important engine of growth. I would say that when you look at penetration, it's mid-single-digit kind of number. I think that we believe that over the cycle, this can go up to 10% of -- in an asset allocation portfolio diversification, it will go up probably around 10%. So in the next few years, we see a lot of opportunities. Again, our unique position with GPs allow us to offer our clients best-in-class capabilities. I'm very excited about the idea that it's not only something that we can do with our wealth management clients, this unified capabilities also allow us to be a best-in-class provider to wholesale clients and institutional and pension funds. So that's where I see the 2 engines of growth and coming for the UGA business.

Perfect. Thank you. Let me see if there is -- we have time for one last quick question, if anyone has Okay. Then I'll ask you my last one. On asset management, which we -- well, we have talked about the alternatives but we haven't talked about the division. I thought Q4 was quite a strong delivery, given costs down 15% quarter-on-quarter, cost/income already at 72% versus the target to be below 70%. And in my understanding, the integration is basically done in that division. So can we -- so that was a smooth delivery. Can we assume that you get to 70% much faster than the exit rate in '26 [indiscernible]?

Well, thanks. But unfortunately, it's not over. And it's -- I think that, as you know, it's almost like the last mile is always the most difficult to run, right? So I think that still, we are at 70-plus cost/income ratio. I do believe that we have a good plan on how to bring it below the 70% and still is a mix between growing but also reshaping the portfolio of businesses. And so I'm very happy. I think the team is doing a fantastic job in managing this integration while growing assets. I mean I'm sure many people here in the room realizes that when you put together 2 asset managers to be able to grow 45 billion in net new money in the same year you're going through the integration was quite an achievement. So I think that it was possible because we were lucky or good but we had very little dissynergies at the top line in terms of product capabilities, very complementary businesses and -- but still the ability to drive efficiencies by streamlining the way we operate from an infrastructure standpoint of view. I still believe that we're going to see growth also this year and as we then execute this streamlining. So accelerating, compared to the current plan, it will be challenging. We are focusing on having a sustainable business model that allow us then to go into the next phase of growth.

Perfect. Thank you very much, Sergio.