Ultragenyx Pharmaceutical Inc. (RARE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 9, 2020
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystI hope everyone can hear me. Welcome to the session on challenges and opportunity of rare disease drug development. I'm Yigal Nochomovitz, I'm the biotech analyst at Citi. As always, if you have questions during the session, you're welcome to email me at yigal.nochomovitz@citi.com or showcase feature on the video to assist in answering questions that way. So it's my great pleasure to have with me this afternoon 5 English CEOs of rare disease companies. From Applied Therapeutics, Shoshana Shendelman, CEO; from Dicerna, Doug Fambrough, CEO as well; from Eiger, David Cory, President and CEO; from IMARA, Rahul Ballal, CEO; and from Ultragenyx, Emil Kakkis, President and CEO. So thank you all so much for joining this afternoon.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystMaybe as a -- just as a broad high-level question. I'd love to get your thoughts on design considerations for rare disease trials. What should be avoided when designing rare disease trials? What are the pitfalls? And also what aspects of rare disease trial design should be emphasized and encouraged? Anyone happy to kick it off or I can call on people? All right. Well, Rahul, do you want to give it a shot?
Rahul Ballal
attendeeSure. First of all, thanks, Yigal, for having me. It's a pleasure to be here. I think -- as we think about clinical trial design for rare disease indications in ours or sickle cell, beta-thalassemia, a couple of considerations for us, specifically. Number one, it's the balance of open-label style design where we can actually see the types of biomarkers that we're interested in from a surrogate standpoint and potentially that could portend to clinical outcomes and balancing that with randomized control trials that actually allow us to see clinical effect and outcome specific to placebo. And so in sickle cell, where there are more patients in the U.S. that have the disease in other rare indications, I think for us, we try to balance the benefits of open-label design trials that can get us to answer as quickly to see if we actually have a signal and understand that signal with the complement of randomized controlled trials that actually prove that we have the signal and actually design those in tandem, so we can get data readouts at frequent visits. I think some of the challenges in sequential trial design, in many previous examples, is that you have to wait a long time to get answers. And one of the important things from the open-label part of our programs is that you can see data more real-time and that could inform randomized controlled trials, which, by function, had a longer life cycle.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystOkay, very good. Doug, do you want to give us your thoughts?
Douglas Fambrough
attendeeGiven the severity and rareness of rare diseases and the flexibility that the FDA often affords to development of rare disease, there are real opportunities to have strategies that cut a lot of time out of clinical development. We, for example, in our primary hyperoxaluria program, purge the FDA at a pre-IND level and proposed a development plan that went directly from a single-dose Phase I into a Phase II/III registration trial and achieved agreement with the FDA on that, proposing a single-dose in the Phase I for modeling and simulation. And then essentially having the first few months of the registration trial serve as a multi-dose safety in the evaluation and continuation with no pause in dosing. That sort of compression of time line saves a tremendous amount of time. And it's not something that is permissible in certainly less severe and more common indications.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGot it. David, do you want to offer your thoughts on how you approach the progeria development? And what you avoided and what you emphasized in the studies?
David Cory
attendeeYes, sure. Every rare disease, and everyone on this panel knows, is unique. And Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome is certainly no exception. The initial studies with lonafarnib in progeria patients looked at -- these are children who die of advanced cardiovascular disease, usually by 14 years of age. So we were looking at pulse wave velocity and other endpoints, including weight gain, ability to thrive and ultimately generated good data. But I think the comments related to working with the FDA are really important. Our discussions with inborn errors division led us down a path to start analyzing an open-label study of patients to look at survival and ultimately, matching a control group of untreated patients, leading to significant survival benefit in the lonafarnib-treated patients, which has led us now to an NDA filing and a PDUFA date in November. So we're very excited about really, really good collaboration with regulators, which I think is critical given how unique each one of these diseases are and certainly progeria.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. Shoshana, do you want to talk a bit about how you've developed the galactosemia program and what you've avoided in terms of trial design and what you've focused on to improve chances of success?
Shoshana Shendelman
attendeeSure. I think galactosemia, as it's similar for a lot of rare diseases that companies are working on usage, we were the first into the disease. We're the only people working on the disease that we're aware of now and that provides a lot of opportunities for development, but there's also a lot of challenges. And I agree with everyone on the panel that there's an opportunity specifically in rare diseases to approach the agencies, FDA and EMA, early on to talk about the specific rare disease and make sure that your program is really targeting elements that are specific to that disease. In our case, our drug is an inhibitor of an enzyme that converts a substrate or product, and that product is toxic. And it's actually an enzyme that's involved in a few rare diseases. So galactosemia is the first that we're targeting, but there's 2 rare diseases that follow in close concert. And it's not the case in every disease, but when you're targeting an enzyme, it really speaks itself to a clear biomarker-based approach. So the enzyme converts galactose to galactitol, you're blocking that enzyme and so galactitol is a natural biomarker. But setting up the program and ensuring that we had everything aligned with the agency to get to that point, and how we would look at that biomarker-based endpoint, how we would tie that to outcomes in our case in the animal model, really involves a lot of close collaboration and close discussion with the agency. And that does seem to be, I think, a common trend with all rare diseases, that it's best to approach them even pre-IND and talk about the disease on how you'll approach it in the clinic? What your end points look like? So that you're not just entering into a black box of development and not knowing what's coming down the road.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. And Emil, you've had decades of experience designing rare disease trials in multiple companies. What are your words of wisdom to those who are trying to develop rare disease products? What should be avoided, what should be emphasized?
Emil Kakkis
executiveI think a lot of the comments people made, I certainly agree with. I think the one thing I would argue for is to develop more dynamic models adapting trials and dosing, particularly. A lot of people are still focused on cohort dosing and fixed doses and the fields depreciate the heterogeneity that exists in all rare disease patient populations. And we generally design programs which have titration -- force-dose titration dosing and allows us to capture more individual dosing strategies and allows you to get to optimal dosing more rapidly. In -- as an example, on our Crysvita pediatric study, we didn't know what the dose should be in that study. We designed a study. We started with different cohorts, but rapidly allowed them to titrate to an optimal. In this case, we had a good biomarker in phosphate. By doing that, we allowed everyone to optimize to their correct dosing within a 3-month period and allowed us to get optimal efficacy. And that design was sufficient to file and get approval for the kids as part of the indication in a single trial, where we didn't even know the dosing we started. We tried to build in this optimization of dosing because it's one of the areas where you can guess wrong and then find yourself with short either in safety and efficacy and have to figure it out on the fly. So whereas the dosing and other things, I strongly recommend people think about adaptiveness in their trial design, so they don't have to make a mistake that could have been avoided and allow themselves to evolve and optimize. And I think, particularly, and dosing is the one I recommend people realize it dosing for every patient. There's not 1 dose for any drug. There's often a range of doses that will have different safety profiles and efficacy profile for different patients.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. Next question I wanted to touch on was how you -- the selection process in rare disease. How you decide what rare diseases to pursue? Is there an algorithm that each of you uses to decide? What are the factors that go into the decision? Are there certain rare diseases that just don't make sense because of the biology or the geographic distribution of the patients that doesn't make sense to pursue? Just talk a bit about what are the factors that go into those really important decisions about what rare diseases makes sense to target and develop drugs for. Emil, you want to start?
Emil Kakkis
executiveSure. Happy to. I think it's a really important part of getting -- having a good success rate is picking well. In general, I try to pick things where there are -- it's a soluble protein or factor that we're dealing with rather than structural proteins or factors. The reason is that for most soluble proteins, whether it's an enzyme or a hormone, you're blocking the potency and ability to make large changes or sufficient changes is much greater than in structural proteins or other things that are much more, say, difficult. So for a lot of enzymes, for example, a few percent of normal for an enzyme is enough to catch up the substrate and get success. Whereas in other disease, where you're got more structural proteins, you have to get 20%, 30% of normal to actually get anywhere and that threshold of effect creates a barrier to success. And so we look for soluble targets and ones that we think were small percent of improvement or increase or decrease, will have a big effect on the disease. And I think that's the best way to get a higher probability of success.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystInteresting. Doug, what are your thoughts on the selection process?
Douglas Fambrough
attendeeI think for Dicerna, many of the criteria we apply are somewhat specific to what specifically we do, RNA interference. We have a technology that turns genes off. And for its first generation, it turns genes off specifically in hepatocytes. So that localizes you in one particular tissue where you could treat hepatocytes and provide benefit. And also limits you to a subset of rare diseases where you can actually provide benefit by turning things off. As I think everyone's aware, many of these rare diseases are loss of function. And sometimes there's a compensatory mutation silencing that can occur. But often, those are only treatable by adding something back, not by silencing. But there are specific cases where all this sort of Venn diagram of opportunities overlaps, what we can do in the tissue that we can do it in and the biology of the disease. Now within that much more refined set, we really want well-understood biology and a biomarker that we can track. Well-understood biology is probability of clinical success factor and the biomarkers practical operational factor. When all those things are going for you, really appears to be a high confidence, straightforward development plan that you can execute on. We can -- we're a small company, we can only do a few things. And so as long as we have a few of those, we have, I think, a very good selection to work with.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGot it. Shoshana, do you want to talk a bit about how you decided on galactosemia?
Shoshana Shendelman
attendeeSure. It's sort of a merge of, I think, what we've talked about so far. So I agree that valuable proteins where you understand the mechanism of disease really well, and you have confidence that in targeting that specific protein or enzyme or whatever your focus is that you can have an impact on the biomarker that you're looking at and that, that will also correlate to disease outcomes. And so all of those pieces fitting together really is what drove us towards galactosemia as a starting point. It's very clear that loss of a certain enzyme causes galactosemia and that this substrate is then converted to a toxic byproduct, in our case, galactitol. And we had a lot of confidence that this mechanism of disease was valid. I think that having animal models and -- in not all cases, animal models are possible. So sometimes you have to resort to things like cell-based models. But for us with galactosemia, having a really good animal model of disease that validated the mechanistic target and allowed us to get outcomes in the animal in a way that you don't always have possibility to do in clinical studies in a short concept period of time, was really important to us. And so being able to look at the animal model of galactosemia, which have the biochemical characteristics of human disease and the same clinical outcomes, things like cognitive insufficiency, developmental delay by motor cells, those are things that are really difficult to look at in humans in a short period of time and really require longer studies. And so having a good model that drives the biomarker to the outcomes and lead you to a higher probability of success when you get into the clinic, I think, is a really important gating event because you want to set yourself up for the highest probability of success when you get to the clinic. And then just the last thing I'll say, I know it's a little long-winded, is having a PD biomarker. I think, is so critical in almost all rare diseases because it allows you to select the right dose based on that PD biomarker in a lot of cases. And then know that, that biomarker is tied to the outcomes and be able to look at the percentage change that you have in humans and sort of know that, that will give you an effect on long-term outcomes over time. So for us in galactosemia, it was as tied together, all of those things: good mechanism of disease, soluble protein, good animal model that tied biochemistry to long-term outcomes. And all of those things lead you into the clinic in the sort of the best position that you can going into a rare disease.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. Rahul, did you want to offer some thoughts on this question regarding selection of diseases?
Rahul Ballal
attendeeNo, I think my colleagues summarized it well. I'll just add the concept for us in fetal hemoglobin induction is a well-validated biomarker that is approachable through small molecule, which is kind of one of our areas of expertise in finding ways to treat patients in a way that actually enables them to take the drug for a long time in sickle cell disease. Specifically, in beta-thalassemia, an oral once-a-day drug, is transformative for a number of reasons. And as we think about the calculus that gets us to the disease choice, these particular indications lend themselves to simpler format drugs that don't need long-term cold-chain transport or don't need to give refrigerated drugs that could be given easily in a number of different environments, both in the U.S. but also across the world. So if you think about the calculus beyond the biology, I would just add that we think about the actual delivery of the drug and the actual attractability that patients would need when they take it.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat, David, did you want to add anything related to progeria, and how you came to select that indication?
David Cory
attendeeSure. For Eiger, progeria was serendipitous. We founded Eiger to develop treatments for hepatitis delta virus. And it was based on a publication in science in 1992, that showed that there was a potential druggable target on the hepatitis delta virus. Back then, delta was not well-known endemic throughout the Middle East and throughout Asia. Now from migration, delta is a rather large orphan disease in the U.S. and Europe. But back then, we didn't have a drug. Prenylation was the target on the HDV genome that we believe that we could target. Prenylation inhibitors were in development at the time for Ras prenylation in hopes of curing some forms of solid tumors. It wasn't until 2009 that we were able to actually access a drug called lonafarnib that had been well characterized, tested in multiple oncology trials. And we were able to take lonafarnib as an oral prenylation inhibitor straight into Phase II to prove concept in HDV. In that process, we dosed over 170 patients and have now, thankfully, advanced lonafarnib as the first oral agent into Phase III for hepatitis delta virus infection. The really cool twist to the story is, during this process, we were introduced to the Progeria Research Foundation, Leslie Gordon and Francis Collins at the NIH, identified the gene responsible for progeria. And identified progerin as an aberrant protein that was a prenylated protein that integrated into cell -- membranes of cells in these children and ultimately led to premature aging and advanced cardiovascular disease. We completed multiple studies. And as I mentioned earlier, demonstrated a survival benefit by blocking prenylation in children with progeria, and are now on a pathway towards our first NDA approval for this patient population that otherwise would be looking at a life expectancy of 14 years. Many of these children are now young adults. On lonafarnib over 10 years, into their late teens and early 20s. And so we're extremely thankful and excited for what the future holds.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystOkay. Great. I want to shift gears a bit and talk about 2 features of FDA interaction that I think are relevant for the rare disease pipelines. And that is breakthrough therapy as well as the priority review vouchers. So to the extent that you can comment, I'd be curious to learn how significant is break -- getting breakthrough with the FDA in terms of your dialogue and progress with regulatory milestones. And then with priority review vouchers, how much does that really matter? How much does that go into your calculus in terms of the development strategy? So Emil, you want to kick that one off?
Emil Kakkis
executiveWell, we all hope we're going to get breakthrough therapy. So it's still hard to plan for it. But okay, we -- I think breakthrough therapy is I think an opportunity to accelerate the discussion with the FDA and the commitment from them to show the flexibility required to get to the end and do it promptly. In our case, with Crysvita, getting breakthrough allowed us to press ahead with filing off of Phase II peds data rather than waiting for Phase III peds, which allowed us to file a year earlier. And I think having breakthrough designation is certainly a part of that calculus that happens with the agency about accepting the importance of the therapy and moving ahead. The PRV program, I think, is something that, first, getting it reauthorized has been a challenge, but it's certainly, for us, we've had 2 PRVs, one we fully owned and one we shared. And those 2 generate a substantial amount of money for us, around $170 million, which is a significant capital infusion for simply doing the work we were going to do anyway, I think, in terms of development. But it does have an impact on some of the ultra-rare indications and one like Mepsevii, for which we got a voucher. Essentially, the voucher covered the entire development program and then some -- and does allow sometimes those ultra rares to maybe make sense if you can get them through promptly in a capital-efficient way. So I do think there is a real value there. And I think if it's not a long-term program, though, it's going to be hard to have impact on what people choose. But over time, I think it's infused a lot of additional capital in the earlier stage companies. So I think it's a benefit. So both have been a helpful program for the rare disease community.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystDoug, I know, I think you have some thoughts on breakthrough, love to hear that.
Douglas Fambrough
attendeeBreakthrough has been really beneficial for us. The drug that we're developing, Nedosiran applies to 3 different diseases. Now they were all primary hyperoxaluria's types 1, types 2 and types 3 and they had some related biology. But there's distinct diseases. And they're kind of a decreasing order of when they were discovered and [indiscernible] natural history basis. And so while the initial indication PH type 1, it's fairly clear what the FDA wanted to see with PH type 2 and PH type 3. It's really required a dialogue with the FDA to reach common ground. We're still in process on PH3 and having the frequent communication that BTD has enabled -- has really facilitated those interactions with the FDA. So I think we're in a far better place with BTD than we would have been without the ability to have such a regular interaction with the FDA. The PRV has little bit of a different story. When we first started the program, we didn't understand we'd be eligible for PRV. There's been some adjustment to how eligibility criteria are interpreted. It'll be nice if we get one, and it will be a nice infusion of capital. But it's kind of a nice to have and wasn't part of the planning initially.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystAll right. Very good. Anyone else want to weigh in on those 2 topics, breakthrough and PRVs.
Rahul Ballal
attendeeI'd just say I kind of concur that the BTD designation is an important aspect of development for us. And we certainly think as we pursue fetal hemoglobin as a surrogate for accelerated approval that, that would be a helpful path for us to take as we generate the data to support it.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystOkay, good. And David, did you have any comments related to the PRV or breakthrough with respect to progeria?
David Cory
attendeeYes. We're in a, I think, an enviable position. We have actually 4 breakthrough therapy designation programs in our pipeline across HDV, progeria and post-bariatric hypoglycemia. And 2 rare disease designations, one for progeria, the other one for congenital hyperinsulinism. And so I would echo what the other participants have said and that is that this breakthrough therapy designation is definitely beneficial. We value the interaction. We -- the more interaction we have with regulators, the more progress we make. And so we value the ability to reach in through breakthrough therapy designation. The priority review vouchers are certainly appreciated. They're not the reason that we pursued these indications. But I do definitely believe that they are valuable in terms of helping companies ultimately get across the finish line in these rare diseases where they otherwise may not.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystAnd Shoshana, not to leave you out with this one…
Shoshana Shendelman
attendeeDon't worry. No. I think that the PRV program has really supported rare disease development in a lot of places that might not, otherwise, have made a lot of commercial sense. So I really echo Emil's sentiments. And we have PRV designation on galactosemia and, hopefully, well on our other rare diseases as well. And it does just help to provide additional capital to literally fund the entire development program and then other programs that might not have the designation. So it really just does help companies that want to work on these rare diseases that have a pediatric element really get to that point and be able to help the patients that they're hoping to help. A financial piece of that, I think, is very supportive from the company perspective.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. Thanks. So maybe we could turn a little bit to some commercial considerations and sort of a 2-part question. Obviously, rare diseases occur in multiple geographies all over the world. So I'm curious as to what the right strategy is for global development of rare disease drugs. Emil obviously has had a lot of experience in that regard. And then secondarily, in terms of pricing, how do you think about pricing? What are the factors that go into optimizing the price for a rare disease drug? It's obviously multifactorial, but just some high-level comments as far as what are the considerations that are important in that regard?
Emil Kakkis
executiveDo you want me to start, Yigal?
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystYes, sure. Sure. Go ahead, Emil.
Emil Kakkis
executiveWell, I think pricing in the global environment are tightly linked to each other. And pricing in the U.S., while under a lot of public pressure, is still relatively easier to manage. And in a lot of other territories getting a lot harder, and there's a lot more pressure on their systems, whether you're talking about Latin America or Europe or anywhere else. So in terms of our philosophy with pricing, we've tried taking a different tactic toward thinking about or worrying about leaving money on the table by pricing too low. Our view is that you leave money on the table if your pricing is too aggressive, and the access is restricted or takes incredible amount of time to achieve. And we need to all be thinking about what the access part of the story is because revenue comes not just in the price, but by how many patients ultimately get treated. Good to position, for example, Crysvita to moderate the price point, even though the efficacy was excellent. But we are concerned about adults getting access to therapy, not just in the U.S. but everywhere. And we knew there would be limitations if the price point was extremely high for -- to capture the peds benefit, we might lose a lot of adults. And adults account for 3/4 of the patients and maybe even more of the kilogram since it's a weight-based dosing. In this case, we took attack in the U.S. of talking with payers about our price point. I think the more moderated price point, but with the proviso that we wanted to see from them policies that supported adults can be treated. I might seem naive, and I think [indiscernible], but it was a bold step forward. And with the rules now, you can talk a little bit more about pricing or payers ahead of approval. But in doing that, we're able to get understanding and in fact, the policies have a lot of adults get treated. We're now starting with 40%. And now almost half the prescriptions are for adults. Strategy allows patients to get policies that will allow them get treated and maximize the revenue. And even though our price point was lower than for others, we're still able to achieve a revenue growth in the U.S. that was on par with some of the best rare disease launchers yet. I hope that can be a trend that we can think about pricing intelligently and getting more patients treated is something that, as an industry, we need to think about. That price point, ex-U.S. has actually gone pretty well, too, because it was more moderated compared to other prices, we're able to get, for example, acceptance by NYCE on the first pass. And we are also getting reimbursement in Canada, it's beginning in Latin America, and it also is working in Europe as well. So I think for Crysvita, you'll see a global uptake of the product at a price point less than other rare disease price products, but at a much better value point, it's a line that we think to get better access across the broader spectrum of patients. So as generally, our view right now is thinking hard about global environment and achieving maximizing revenue rather than just thinking about price. And I think, as an industry, we need to think about the impact of our choices on the health of patients. And that just getting revenue is not good enough if we've treated very few of the patients. In many of the places, we're commercializing purely for financial reasons. We have to think about implications. Because the more we disregard that, the more political solutions will come forth that may not be the right thing either, take care of our patients and make sure the commercialization is doing that.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystVery interesting. Doug, do you want to offer your thoughts on the pricing in ex-U.S. commercialization?
Douglas Fambrough
attendeeWell, I was going to start with ex-U.S. development. I mean, it's been really critical to do a global development program for us. There are a whole series of trials that need to be done, different age groups as well as different states of kidney healths and our indication and we have more than one company enrolling in the population. So it's has been really critical to do this globally. It certainly introduces operational challenges, and you never know what's going to happen. We had a hospital close to the detonation site in Beirut, for example. It was a rolling site for us. We are able to keep those patients on drug, fortunately. So I think one has to really have a global perspective, when one is thinking about to link development in this population. So when it comes to pricing, I would really agree with everything that Emil had to say and the philosophy that he approached it, access is key. We're developing these drugs, yes, we're a business where we want to make money, but a lot of what we want to do is ameliorate the disease and benefit the patients. And so access is a really critical part of the equation. And of course, total revenue is access, not price. So there's 2 variables there.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGot it.
Rahul Ballal
attendeeYes. I would just build on Doug and Emil's point. I think for us, on a global development, we have 50 sites in 13 countries for sickle and 50 sites in 14 countries for beta-thalassemia. So the operational logistics in developing a global program force us to do a couple of key things. Number one, harmonize definitions across different sites. So our VOC definition for vaso-occlusive crisis is harmonized across sites. Number two, we use a lot of local infrastructure, including boots on the ground, which has its challenges, but nevertheless, it's important. And I think the one thing that's often lost is -- in global development, is to engage the local community. And we have a KOL advisory board that's specific to African development. And so as we think about the nuances for treating patients in Africa, we've kind of leveraged local insight as to how to actually do that in a productive way, in a supportive way for the community. And for us, it's a unique proposition in terms of pricing because where sickle is rare in many parts of the world, it's endemic in places like Africa and same with beta-thalassemia in places like Asia. So we have this obligation as a company to find ways to enable oral therapies in places that obviously could afford it and where the disease isn't rare, while obviously having a premium pricing in places like U.S. and Europe, where it is, in fact, rare. So that in and of itself is a unique conundrum for us.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. Any other -- anyone else want to chime in?
David Cory
attendeeThis is David. Go ahead. Go ahead, Shoshana.
Shoshana Shendelman
attendeeI'll keep talking. So I think that, obviously, what has to be taken into account and is an important consideration is whether there are other therapies in the space, is that a competitive space? Do you need to be thinking about pricing of other drugs? And so I do think that the way that you approach pricing in disease indications where there are options already available, might be a little bit different from a new entry into a space where there are no drugs available. Because it also takes an additional sort of clinical development push to be the first in that space. And what we've seen in galactosemia and now with SORD deficiency or hereditary neuropathy that we're moving into the number of patients really does sort of drive the value from a market access perspective and also what you can offer them in terms of outcomes in the long term. And if you're having a really significant effect on the disease, and you can really offer something beneficial, then I think you have a lot of opportunities open to you from a pricing perspective. And then to Emil's point, it's just the responsibility of the company to do the right thing. And to make sure that you price responsibly and that there's access to the population as a whole and the patients aren't restricted from getting the therapy that they need. Sorry, go ahead, David.
David Cory
attendeeNo, no, it's okay. I was just going to comment. We're close to, we believe, an approval for lonafarnib in what may be the most ultra-rare orphan disease in Hutchinson-Gilford progeria. We've identified 172 patients around the globe in over 40 countries. Clearly, the commercial opportunity in most of those countries does not exist, and we know that. We've submitted an NDA in the U.S. and an MAA in the EU. But we've set up an expanded access or a managed access program that we believe will reach every identified patient in over 40 countries. So we're trying to recognize the value that lonafarnib brings to patients with progeria, and in this case, survival, we believe, is a significant benefit. At the same time, access is everything. We want no child, no young adult to go without therapy. And so we're working painstaking hours to ensure that we deliver on that promise, but we're proud of the work we're doing and excited about it.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystOkay. Great. So we have 9 minutes left. So I'm going to try to squeeze in one company-specific question for everybody. So try to keep your answers relatively tight, if possible. So Shoshana, for you. Obviously, you have the NDA filing for galactosemia in the first quarter of 2021. So tell us quickly, what's your strategy for identifying galactosemia patients? And what progress have you made so far in identifying the patient population?
Shoshana Shendelman
attendeeSo we're really fortunate in galactosemia that there's mandatory newborn screening in the U.S. and most EU countries. And I'm still glad you asked that question, Yigal, because September is actually newborn screening awareness month. So there's all campaign going on in the background for why this is so important. So galactosemia is really a place where prior to newborn screening, almost all of these infants died at birth. And once newborn screening was implemented, not only were their lives saved, but we know who all of these patients are. So the 100% of the patient population is identified because they would have died, if they weren't caught on newborn screening. But what that also means is that the population is skewed in age. So most infants, unfortunately, prior to newborn screening, died at birth and newborn screening was implemented in the 1980s and 1990s. So most of this population is young adults. By young, I mean like under 40, I think that's young and children. So we are in an extremely fortunate position to know who 100% of these patients are and there's a lot of enthusiasm on the patient and family front because there have been no drugs to treat this disease yet. So I think that really sets us up for success moving forward. But I know that that's not the case for every company. And in the next rare disease that we're moving into SORD neuropathy, those patients are grouped under Charcot-Marie type 2 disease. So that's kind of the opposite scenario where you'll actually need to identify those patients that have that genetic form of disease. And that can be an interesting challenge to undertake. And maybe I'll let that be the transition to your questions for other companies.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystAll right. Thanks. Doug, for you. Obviously, you have the PHYOX2 trial coming up next year, the pivotal trial for primary hyperoxaluria. Tell us just briefly about the design of that trial? And what are the key factors as you see it that are positioning that study for a successful outcome?
Douglas Fambrough
attendeeYes. PHYOX2 is well underway for its enrollment. We should wrap up the enrollment this year. And it's a 6-month placebo-controlled trial, treating patients with PH type 1 and PH type 2. So when we wrap up enrollment on schedule, we should have top line middlish next year. And actually, the COVID has met our nonclinical and CMC. It's ahead of schedule relative to clinical since clinical has slowed a little bit. So we should be able to turn around the NDA filing efficiently next year. This trial is looking at PH1 and PH2 together, and we have agreement with the FDA on full approval based on the data, of course, in both of those indications, based on a combined analysis of type 1 and type 2 patients. And that allows us just to enroll as the type 1, type 2, not worry about the ratio and just bring them in to middle of the trial. So it's going to be very exciting for us, a rare disease. I mean we're in RNAi. We could have gone after a non-rare disease as our first indication, but rare disease is personal. It's been really motivating to have patients come in and have it be so tangible. And we can maintain control. And ultimately, we can commercialize this, hopefully launching end of '21, beginning '22, commercializing in the U.S. on our own.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. And David, for you, you mentioned, I think, 170 or 172 progeria patients identified. What's your strategy for finding more of them? I understand that worldwide prevalence is about 400. How are you going to find the others?
David Cory
attendeeYes. We actually now have a brand name for lonafarnib, which is Zokinvy, specific for progeria and also progeroid laminopathies, which is a more heterogeneous group, but clinically, similar to progeria patients. And so in total, prevalence estimates are roughly 400 for progeria and 400 for progeroid laminopathies. That 172 patients includes both of those patient populations. What we have found, maybe not so surprisingly, is that as we continue to educate on the availability of a drug that is near approval for these disease states, patients are being discovered. And that's probably one of the most rewarding aspects of the work we're doing. We recently had a patient in Morocco genetically diagnosed with Hutchinson-Gilford progeria syndrome. And we're extending our managed access program in that direction. And so patient by patient, that's our goal is to find them one by one. And like I said, that's one of the most rewarding aspects of the work we're doing at Eiger.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystGreat. And Emil, for you, obviously, you're advancing 2 important gene therapies into Phase III next year for both OTC deficiency and GSD1a. Can you talk a bit briefly about the learnings from the Phase I/IIa programs for those 2 indications that have informed the design of the Phase III and what's positioning the Phase III for a successful outcome?
Emil Kakkis
executiveSure. So the 2 gene therapy programs are an AAV gene therapy vector for ornithine transcarbamylase or OTC and the second glycogen storage disease type 1a or GSD1a. Both programs are metabolic biochemical diseases. There are involved soluble proteins that are enzymes and catalyze changes. And in both cases, only a few percent of normal enzyme is sufficient to correct these patients. So they sort of fits the choice we put forth before. Because they're biochemical diseases and you have good biomarkers to manage there. In the case of the OTC, it's a ureagenesis defect in ammonia metabolism, and you can look at ammonia as a validated surrogate from the FDA standpoint as a primary endpoint. We're also going to look at ureagenesis. Their capacity to make urea from ammonia, which is a better measure of how well the patients can sustain an illness or other insult to their metabolism. And we'll look at other cognitive and other supportive endpoints as well. But because ammonia has been used before, it is a solid way to use a biomarker and get it a full approval for OTC. And we expect to enter in Phase III in 2021. And the Phase I/II data so far show that we can correct OTC in 6 of 9 patients and multiple patients there have complete responders, where they come up all their drugs, all their diet restriction and have good ammonia control and really a change of life for patients real metabolic cure at this point. So we're excited about how that's looking for OTC. In the case of GSD1, they're missing an enzyme that releases glucose from the liver, so they can't maintain their own glucose. So their -- the thing that saved them is that they're taking oral starch. They take cornstarch orally every few hours, as sort of an oral glucose replacement therapy. They've been doing that from when they were little kids. And if they hadn't, they would have died as little kids, but many of these patients doing it for decades. And are in the clinical study. What we've shown in that situation is giving a gene therapy contain that enzyme, where you only need to take 3% of normal to correct the problem. So we've gotten all 9 patients to have improvements in their glucose release and the amount of cornstarch they need to take their oral glucose replacement were substantially reduced. And a number of patients are more than 80%, 90% reduced heading toward complete independence from oral starch. So we're impressed with the degree and potency of that gene therapy and change in the future for those patients. And if you've ever had to take a therapy every 3 hours, all day and at night, that means wake up every night and have to think about that if you miss your nighttime dose, you could die or have a seizure. Every single night of your life has a gun to your head. And the great thing about the therapy it takes that away and provides ability to make glucose themselves and not have to feed themselves glucose every few hours for their entire life. So we're excited about that one entering Phase III, looking at how much cornstarch reduction, how much can we reduce that lifeline of oral glucose replacement as a primary endpoint, and we'll look at their ability to tolerate hypoglycemia, continuous glucose monitoring and other clinical endpoints and how they feel and how they respond to treatment. Both programs should be in Phase III, randomized control Phase IIIs next year. So it will be a busy year for Ultragenyx.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystVery good. And the last, but certainly not least, Rahul at IMARA. Tell us a bit about the design of the Phase IIb for 687 and sickle cell and more specifically, how did you incorporate the learnings from the Phase IIa and designing your Phase IIb?
Rahul Ballal
attendeeYes. Thanks, Yigal. We -- the Phase IIb has 2 important organizing principles that were called from data in our Phase II interim analysis. Number one, we needed to go up on dose. And so we've created a scheme where we could push the dose higher, actually building on a number of the different points were raised at the beginning of the discussion today, in terms of being able to push the dose to a place where you can understand the PD effects and hopefully see the biomarkers tell the story you want to. The other nuance, which was unique for us is vaso-occlusive crisis are usually measured on an annual basis, but a lot of the competition, including recent approvals have looked at the 6-month time point. So again, in that theme of adaptive design, our primary endpoint is powered at 6 months to patients continue on through a year of treatment, so we can capture the annual VOC changes over time. And so what we're hoping is that, that adaptive design, unlike our Phase IIa, which ended right at 6 months, will allow us to backfill some of that data that's really important on clinical outcomes. And ultimately marry it with the field hemoglobin induction we hope to see at the prior endpoint.
Yigal Nochomovitz
analystVery good. Well, thank you all so much for participating. Best of luck for the rest of the conference. And for -- more importantly for your clinical and commercial development. Thank you.
David Cory
attendeeThanks, Yigal.
Emil Kakkis
executiveThank you.
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