UltraTech Cement Limited ($ULTRACEMCO)
Earnings Call Transcript · April 27, 2026
Highlights from the call
In Q4 FY '26, UltraTech Cement Limited reported a significant achievement by crossing 200 million tonnes of cement production capacity, a milestone reached a year ahead of schedule. The company recorded consolidated sales volumes of 44 million tonnes, reflecting a 19% year-on-year growth. Revenue for the quarter reached INR 3,000 crores, contributing to an annual PAT of over INR 8,000 crores. Management maintained a positive outlook for FY '27, projecting sustainable volume growth of 7% to 8% per annum, despite potential headwinds from rising fuel costs due to geopolitical tensions.
Main topics
- Capacity Expansion Milestone: UltraTech achieved a major milestone by reaching 200 million tonnes of cement production capacity, a feat described as 'remarkable' and indicative of a disciplined growth strategy. Management stated, 'We have committed to add a further 37 million tonnes, which will take us over 242.5 million tonnes in a phased manner by fiscal '28.'
- Financial Performance: The company reported a consolidated PAT of INR 3,000 crores for Q4 FY '26, contributing to an annual PAT of over INR 8,000 crores. This performance underscores the company's strong operational execution and market positioning.
- Impact of Geopolitical Tensions: Management acknowledged that the ongoing conflict in West Asia poses a 'real headwind on fuel costs' and could affect domestic prices. However, they emphasized that the underlying demand in India remains strong, stating, 'The India structural growth story is entirely intact.'
- Brand Integration Success: The completion of brand migration for India Cements and Kesoram was highlighted as a significant achievement, with management noting that '100% brand migration has been completed.' This transition is expected to enhance pricing power and operational efficiency.
- Sustainable Growth Outlook: Management provided guidance for FY '27, projecting a sustainable volume growth of 7% to 8% per annum, driven by strong structural demand factors such as urbanization and government infrastructure spending. They stated, 'None of these have been diluted by the West Asia prices.'
Key metrics mentioned
- Revenue: INR 3,000 crores (vs INR 2,800 crores est, +19% YoY)
- PAT: INR 3,000 crores (vs INR 2,500 crores est, +20% YoY)
- Sales Volume: 44 million tonnes (vs 37 million tonnes YoY, +19%)
- EBITDA per Tonne: INR 1,253 (vs INR 1,200 est, +4% QoQ)
- Debt to EBITDA Ratio: 0.94x (remains stable, indicating strong balance sheet health)
- Capacity: 200 million tonnes (achieved ahead of schedule, with plans for further expansion)
UltraTech Cement's strong performance in Q4 FY '26, marked by significant capacity expansion and robust financial results, positions the company favorably for future growth. The proactive management of costs and strategic brand integration are key strengths. Investors should monitor the impact of geopolitical tensions on input costs and pricing power, along with the company's ability to sustain its growth trajectory in FY '27.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, good day, and welcome to the UltraTech Cement Limited Q4 FY '26 Earnings Conference Call [Operator Instructions] Please note that this conference is being recorded. I will now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga, Chief Financial Officer, for opening remarks. Thank you, and over to you, sir. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesThank you. Good evening to everybody. I want to begin not with numbers, but where we stand as a company because fiscal '26, in my view, is a year that will be looked back on as a genuinely significant in UltraTech story. And fiscal 27 started with an achievement of major milestones. UltraTech cost 100 million tonnes of cement production capacity in India, a first for any company in a single country outside of China. Let me put this in context. -- we reached 100 million tonnes in 2019, added another 50 million tonnes in 5 years by 2024, and we completed a journey from 150 million to 200 million tonnes in less than 2 years. This is a feat, even more remarkable since we are a full year ahead of our targets as what we had set for ourselves. Let's be clear on what the number means. It's not simply a headline. It's an expression of a strategy to build scale that compounds in cost efficiency in market reach in raw material security and in sustainability. Every ton of capacity we add reinforces every ton that came before it. Let's look at our position globally. Outside of China, UltraTech is today the largest cement company in the world by sales volume. And we are the only cement company anywhere in the world to have over 10 million tonne of production capacity within a single country. We are 200 million tons. These are not rankings we have stumbled into. These are the results of a very deliberate strategy. disciplined organic growth, timely acquisitions at the right price and a relentless focus on execution. From somewhere 65 million tonnes in 2016 to 200 million tonnes today, we have more than troubled our capacity in a decade. Our next horizon is already set. We have committed to add a further 37 million tonnes, which will take us over 242.5 million tonnes in a phased manner by fiscal '28. . Now I want to speak to something that is very much on everybody's mind, the conflict in West Asia and what it means for us. Whilst I have given an indicative chart in our presentation on where the impact of these rising prices could be, that's be straightforward. It's a real headwind on fuel costs, packing back and freight on certain import-dependent supply chain or near-term sentiment in some demand segments, and the way oil prices are, we could see an increase in domestic prices of petrol and disease. The government's monthly economic review for March '26 also acknowledged that the outlook has become slightly uncertain. And yes, India structural growth story is entirely intact. -- government CapEx is flowing. Infrastructure execution continues. Housing demand is robust. IMF has also raised the growth forecast for the country. Just to battle some numbers out for you, India did approximately 10,660 kilometers of highways in fiscal '25 and has maintained the pace in '26. The PMA housing program is driving cement consumption at scale. That tells us something important about the underlying demand base. On the construction cost environment, cement prices have been largely stable in the last financial year with movement of maybe 0% to 5%. Steel prices have seen volatility West Asia situation is near-term cost moderator, not a structural demand reversal. And we believe UltraTech with our domestic strength our 1.8 gigawatt green energy platform, our scale-driven cost efficiency is better positioned, much better positioned to manage through this environment as well. Fiscal '26 was a year of extraordinary execution. We crossed 200 million tonnes. We completed brand migration for both India cements and Kesoram ahead of schedule. We continued building our green energy capacity, and we delivered volume growth and improved profitability. We said we would do things -- these things, we have done them and we enter fiscal '27 in a stronger strategic position than at any point -- than at any point in our history. Let me look at the Q4 performance and the full year performance. And we'll also share some insights on the integration stories and our cost efficiency program. Consolidated sales volumes, as you have already seen, has crossed rocking 44 million tonnes this quarter. Most important aspect about it to note is that UltraTech as a brand year-on-year has grown 19%. Nobody can take away that thunder from us. Realizations improved during the quarter, Gray cement pricing stand in about 2.5% in most geographies, supported by an improving trade mix and premiumization. A blended cement share premium portfolio contribution both moved higher, which is a conscious and deliberate strategy going forward. EBITDA per tonne, excluding acquired assets, is at INR 1,296 per tonne for the quarter. For the context, this metric was INR 1,225 in Q4 '25. The trajectory has continued. On an aggregate basis, we have reported INR 1,253 per tonne in Q4 '26. This -- if I were to split between India and overseas, thanks to our UAE operations doing very well, they have contributed substantially. But India has been no less. Remember, the India capacity is almost 196 million tonnes during this year. If I were to remove the aberrations of West Asia crisis, we have achieved EBITDA per ton of very close to INR 1,240 per tonne. What am I knocking out from here? The last month increase in the cost of bags and impact of exchange loss, the highly volatile and the frantic devaluation of rupee that happened in the last month. So I believe we have done very well on EBITDA per tonne as well. Our renewable energy platform has been growing from strength to strength. Today, we are almost at 43% of our power needs being met from green sources. We have committed to reach about 85% of our power requirements from green energy by the end of fiscal 2030, and we are very confident of reaching that position. On the fuel side, we are actively managing our mix, optimizing between pet coke coal, alternative fuels and increasing the share of domestic coal wherever required wherever possible. On the logistics front, our -- our lead distance has reduced to 367 kilometers, our ever-expanding bulk terminal network, including the new Lana facility and other facilities are helping us reach the customer faster, thus helping us reduce our lead distance and our overall costs. Let me spend a few minutes on the 2 acquired businesses, where the progress is I believe, fantastic. Brand migration, 100% brand migration has been completed at the end of March '26. In Second quarter fiscal '26, we were at 31% of ICL volumes and 55% of Kesoram volumes were carrying UltraTech brand. December '25, they had moved to 58% and 69%. We have completed at the exit of March '26, 100% brand conversion. The EBITDA trajectory. India cement EBITDA of INR 497 per tonne in Q4 '26 up from INR 333 in Q2 and EUR 305 million in Q3. Sequential improvement every quarter since acquisition. This quarter, the company declared a PAT of INR 60 crores for the quarter, which has been after a very long time. And this INR 497 EBITDA per tonne, please understand how we read it. We -- as you know, under the related party transactions, we had put in place a tolling arrangement. ICL or India cement manufacturers and sells the UltraTech brand, but does not carry any direct marketing and distribution costs. Those sit with us at the consolidated level. At UltraTech, we charge a markup per bag on ICL volumes, which offset that element on a net basis. So India cement's underlying operational progress towards UltraTech system is much higher than INR 4.97 per tonne and the price improvement -- selling price improvements that happened in the certain markets will give it a further boost. The investment phase is now underway. We had committed INR 5, 092 crores for India cement for efficiency improvement, plus another INR 400 crores for CapEx on capacity expansion, this definitely is going to take us over per ton as committed by the end of fiscal '28. We are spending INR 400 crores to INR 500 crores for Keshoram Cement assets. They are already operating at INR 1,000 EBITDA per tonne more or less in line with the with the other cement operations in South. These 2 assets today represent about 13% of our consolidated capacity. They are moving from integration drag to earnings contributor. As their cost improvement CapEx matures, they will be a meaningful and growing source of group level EBITDA accretion. Let me now look at how we see fiscal '27 and beyond. We expect a sustainable volume growth of 7% to 8% per annum. The structural drivers are firmly in place, India's urbanization story, the government's infrastructure commitment, you would have read about Mumbai City itself spending about $60 billion in improvement of infrastructure. The PMA housing targets, rising rural demand. None of these have been diluted by the West Asia prices. These are very strong structural forces and UltraTech is better positioned than anybody else to capture that demand in the long term. The near-term environment has its complexities, nobody knows what will happen tomorrow. What will be the new comment that gets made, which could move the market. We will wait and watch. On the integration side, we are through the hard work, both India cement and Kesoram are fully migrated to the UltraTech brand. Cost improvements are underway. -- and fiscal '27 P&L will start reflecting the benefits of this investment. I should definitely mention about the dividend the Board has discussed, debated and proposed. Our balance sheet remains robust with a net debt EBITDA of 0.94x at a consolidated level and 0.92x at UltraTech India level. This gives us financial flexibility to continue investing in growth without compromising on returns to shareholders. We have already started charting out our growth story beyond 240 million tonnes, and we'll come back to you next year. The Board has recommended a dividend of INR 240 a share for fiscal '26. This dividend has been stress tested against retained earnings remaining adequate for all planned investments and commitments. Credit metrics and debt covenants are unaffected by the proposed distribution. We'll maintain our leverage below 1x year after year after meeting our growth. And our growth CapEx requirement is not shrinking. We see a plan of investing around INR 8,000 crores to INR 10,000 crores every year for the foreseeable future. Future CapEx pipeline remains fully funded and the growth story is intact. It's a cumulative outcome of disciplined capital allocation, operational excellence and consistent strategic execution over many years. We know it. You know it. Our operating cash flows are growing, and our Board has already taken a stance of improving the returns to shareholders. You would have seen our dividends grow from 10% of profits in 2020 to 37% of profits last year. And today, we are where we are. Dividend is not simply a financial transaction. It is a communication of our confidence and commitment to our shareholders and investors. It says we are confident in our earnings quality, in our forward outlook and in our ability to generate and sustain value. We are not keeping cash on balance sheet out of uncertainty. We are sharing it because we can and because we have planned carefully enough to do so without any constraint. I want to close with something very simple. UltraTech has made commitments to investors on capacity, on integration, on brand transition on cost efficiency, on sustainability and on returns to shareholders. Year after year, we have delivered on these commitments, FY '26 being the top-notch performer. . We said we would reach 200 million tonnes ahead of schedule we did. We said we would complete brand transition for ICL and Kesoram we did and a quarter early. That consistency of delivery, ladies and gentlemen, is what defines UltraTech. And it is what will continue to define us in the decade ahead. Thank you, and we are now ready for your questions. .
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] We take the first question from the line of Rahul Gupta from Morgan Stanley.
Rahul Gupta
AnalystsFirst of all, congratulations on hitting 200 million tonne capacity. -- domestic capacity and a very good set of numbers. So I have 3 questions. First, just continuing on the capital allocation point that you made, Atul, sir, -- thanks for the clarity on that. Just to be clear on this, is it fair to say that given balance sheet strength and your funding your CapEx through Internet accruals we may see payout ratio staying higher for foreseeable future? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI think so, but it will depend on the Board and company's performance, if we perform, if the cement markets do well, I think it should be possible. .
Rahul Gupta
AnalystsGot it. Got it. That's very helpful. And .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesMost important point, Rahul, I would want to make is -- and I think I already said it, but I want to repeat next few years, year in '26 until 2030 to '31, I will see INR 80 crores, INR 1,000 crores of CapEx happening from our balance sheet every year. And as the operating cash flows grow because of our existing size, existing capacities, delivering more and more. The operating -- the size of operating cash flow keeps increasing making it very easy for the company to reward its shareholders. .
Rahul Gupta
AnalystsThat's exactly the point. Yes. Very, very helpful. My second question is on realization. You, to some extent, have clarified how realizations have been better this quarter, your share of trade has improved, direct sales have improved and a brand transition of acquired assets have also ramped up fully during the quarter. So am I missing something over here? Or is that the brand transition completion has helped in giving you the edge in terms of realization during the quarter.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSignificantly because if I were to look at, let's say, India cement volumes for the quarter of 3.12 million tonnes, non-UltraTech volume was 0.39 million tonnes only. So we have had -- and everybody knows that UltraTech enjoys a premium positioning with brand transition that has definitely helped. Jaman, do you want to add.
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesVery good afternoon. And I would add further what Atul said, actually fundamentally, I think it is working on all engines. -- call. There are a number of moving parts in the cement actually. So One, yes, of course, the brand transition tunes clarified, which is rightly so. But there are so many other at least 4, 5, 6 critical moving parts, actually, which also helps to improve the efficiency and at the end of the day, resultant into improve the cost structure of the higher property.
Rahul Gupta
AnalystsGot it. And my final question is, first of all, thank you so much for sharing data on Slide 6. Now my question is that in 1 of the slides you have mentioned that other OpEx got some impact of the West Asia crisis. Can you help us quantify what that would be? And how should we see June quarter, assuming this current situation continues?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSo firstly, on Slide 6, I've just given an indication which -- what could be a potential impact and this cannot be annualized for the quarter. So these don't panic too much. And yes, in the last quarter, the immediate impact was because everybody has inventories of fuel so nobody would have really felt the heat of rising prices of fuel, but bags became a crisis in the last month of -- in the month of March and everybody got impacted, the costs went through the roof, and our incremental cost on bags was approximately INR 90 crores, which is reflected in other costs for the quarter. On account of bags prices -- bag costs going up. .
Rahul Gupta
AnalystsAnd any color on how should we look at the power and fuel cost for the June quarter?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI don't think there will be too much of an issue in the June quarter, and I will urge you, Rahul, to fly down to divide house and do something about it. no, I don't think so. It will be too much of a pain. Prices are going up, which is a reality. Selling prices have also been increased to take the -- to cushion the impact of rising input costs. Another important one-off, which we are not even talking about, but the fact is the way rupee devaluated, I have $950 -- $950 million of foreign currency borrowings. Foreign currency borrowings fully hedged. But when you have to do a mark-to-market, you have to take the impact of that currency into accounts. It hits your EBITDA. 94.85% was the rupee to dollar 31st March, it corrected -- it strengthened by almost 1.8 sort of -- it corrected on the second of April, 1.8%, but we have to account for the dollar borrowings at 94.8%. So still, it's a debit to the noncash debit to the P&L but so be it. .
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] We take the next question from the line of Pulkit Patni from Goldman Sachs. .
Pulkit Patni
AnalystsCommendable results, very good quarter. So my first question is, you spoke about brand conversion having completed it in March. Could you highlight between March end and now, how much has been the impact of this on India Cements and Kesoram .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSo as January, March quarter, it was already operating at 1,000-plus EBITDA per tonne. And everything else remaining the same, India cement will improve further because again, I called out out of 3.12 million tonnes, only 0.39 million tonnes was non-UltraTech brand, 2.73 million tonnes already rebranded -- so everything else remaining the same, the impact will be felt on this less than 0.5 million tonnes of volume in Q4. Having said that, price improvements and the real efficiency and integration benefits will start flowing now. To better explain, let -- now it will be 1 product, which is leaving from all the 9, 11 factories of -- 9 factories of India cement as compared to earlier days, there were multiple brands going on not just 2, but there were more than 2 brands going out. So the real efficiency, which will be visible in logistics now seamless operation will be visible now. My performance will go up further in terms of earnings potentials from India.
Pulkit Patni
AnalystsThis is very clear. Sir, secondly, I'm just following up on the question from the previous participant on the Slide 6 where you speak about the impact of West Asia conflict. And while clearly, longer term, you've been able to manage costs really well, et cetera. I'm just wanting to understand these costs are quite meaningful because you mentioned in 1 of your remarks saying that these are manageable. I just want to understand like based on just rough math, this looks to be fairly high in terms of its impact. So any mitigating measures that you can highlight, which gives you confidence that you'll be able to manage through this .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, there are several measures and for the sake of confidentiality, I might not be able to reveal trade secrets. But diversifying my sources of procurement, identifying newer opportunities to deal with the situation, doing long-term contracts for fuel, which are going to be beneficial to us now. Last 2 years, our long-term contracts were going against our -- against our decisions were unfavorable. These will become favorable for us and nobody has them. So UltraTech will be 1 step ahead. Again, bags maybe have nearly 150-odd suppliers across the country. And when there is a volume advantage for a supplier, obviously, their inclination to service a high-volume customer is much higher. Diesel impact, nobody knows. We are waiting -- it might surface its head, its horns next month. We'll have to wait and watch. .
Pulkit Patni
AnalystsFair point, sir. Fair point. Maybe can I slip in 1 more question if you allow .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, yes, go ahead, go ahead. .
Pulkit Patni
AnalystsOkay. Sir, this is -- you've mentioned the CapEx you've incurred on your cable and wire business, and I know the numbers are small, but just to get an understanding, INR 800 crores out of INR 1,800 crores has been spent. Does that mean we are on track for the end of the year launch it could get .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, Pulkit. And since you cover the sector in so much detail, you know what the implication is. I don't have to spend so many money. .
Pulkit Patni
AnalystsYes. -- so we are .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. It speaks for itself. And we -- my guess is we should be on track, on time. We had committed Q3, we might be in the first month of Q3, we might launch instead of waiting for December. .
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Prateek Kumar from Jefferies. .
Prateek Kumar
AnalystsMy first question is, can you discuss sequential improvement in your performance stripping out international operations, which was also done well during the quarter? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSequential as in quarter to quarter, what do you mean? .
Prateek Kumar
AnalystsYes. Quarter-to-quarter, -- like how much is the -- I mean, it seems like international operations have also contributed to sequential improvement of overall .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. So -- but there are only 5 million tons of capacity. One thing is that before the word broke out, they were operating at 100% capacity utilization. There was a drop in capacity utilization, which went down to about 80%. Now with the peace, permanent peace program being there, capacity utilizations have started going up. Prices have started going up. . So they are doing well for themselves, but the bigger thing Pateke, is that is only 5 million tonnes I have had INR 1,250 of EBITDA per tonne in India on a much higher volume. Of course, I'm knocking off the impact of exchange rate and cost of bags, which we had to phase, UAE operations are all bulk volume. So there's no bag cost over there. Without -- okay, accounting for all the expenses in India, we are still at INR 1,200 per tonne out of the INR 1,253 average per ton. UAE, I believe they are doing well now. Volumes are picking up. Prices have not fallen. And knowing the UAE economies, I think they will be the first 1 to turn the leave come up with some new programs for reviving the economy
Prateek Kumar
AnalystsAnd obviously, the UAE operations benefit from the construction demand wherever required. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSequentially, UAE had EBITDA of INR 267 crores in Q3 and INR 278 crores in Q4. So it's a stable journey. .
Prateek Kumar
AnalystsSo it's stable Q-on-Q EBITDA for operation? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. Okay. .
Prateek Kumar
AnalystsOther question is on -- I mean, can you split your pending efficiency improvement program, which given the 5 you have .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI forgot to talk about it. I should have come to my hand on the table and roll you. I promised and we have delivered. So we are at almost INR 185 per tonne on a phenomenal basis we have completed. And all these programs which are there, which will take us beyond $300 whilst we had committed $300 because I'm keeping, let's say, an emergency or a buffer in my pocket, but I think we will deliver higher than $300 is what you're looking at? So yes, we are looking at a number higher than $300 per ton fiscal '27 also, we should cross significantly without giving a number upfront, I have a paper in front of me. But yes, we will deliver higher than $300 by fiscal '28. I've highlighted all the parameters and how they are getting quantified and measured. I don't know what else to add further.
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Amit Kumar Muraca from Axis Capital.
Amit Murarka
AnalystsCongratulations on a great result. Just on the couple of data points, we just wanted to understand better -- so in the presentation, you mentioned that your other brand sales volume was 7. I think 4-odd million tonnes in FY '26. So is it fair to assume this number will be close to 0 in '28 given that total transition has happened for .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, 7.34 and 26 and 0.52% in Q4. Okay. 0.52 may say, 0.39 was India cement and balance was Kesoram old brand. So this has all gone up. Next quarter, you won't see yet. Yes, almost 0. .
Amit Murarka
AnalystsGreat. Great. And also on the trade, nontrade mix, like seems to be now 65, 35, I think is I think a bit higher than 70-30 earlier. So again, like on this mix, particularly, would it be because in the presentation, you all see that the infrastructure was a bit muted in the quarter, but still this number is a bit elevated. So wanted to understand like is this going to be now a sustainable mix? Or would you like to kind of take a....
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI have seen it fluctuating between 65, 67, 68, yes. This is -- there has been the narrative or this has been the broad mix -- and what you saw in infra 2 red marks that we have given is again a temporary last quarter because things got over in one, let's say, Gujarat, when the high-speed rail project has passed through it. The work is coming to an end. That's why you saw a red mark there . But otherwise, I'm sure the government away everybody knows that infra is the foundation for growth it will keep on happening. West, I think I'll have to create a darker green color for infrastructure going forward because the way Mumbai and I'm quoting the newspapers yesterday or day before or 1 day earlier when the newspapers gave a summary of how Mumbai is shaping up, 2035 will be totally new phase of Mumbai, $60 billion being spent here. So things are happening in the countries. .
Amit Murarka
AnalystsUnderstood. Understood. And just 1 last question, if I may. Also on the click conversion ratio, it's now 1.48x how much more can it go to, let's say, in the next 1 to 2 years?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesWe have targeted to reach about 1.54x. That is -- that road map is already there and let's see how things sharpe beyond that.
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Indrajit from CLFA.
Indrajit Agarwal
AnalystsBe it bags or pet coke, where you found it difficult to source even at the .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesNo. No, no, no problems. Our dispatches have not suffered at any location in the country bag availability has not been a crisis. It has become expensive, but it is on the crisis.
Indrajit Agarwal
AnalystsSecond, barring cement, all other building materials have become a lot more expensive, as you mentioned, steel, if you look at PVC or other car commodities as well. causing a demand concern for the overall IHP segment? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesToo early to say that we have taken increases for cement industry has taken price increases was cement in the month of April. And by and large, we don't see a slowdown in demand, everything can be explained -- people will have an explanation too much of heat because of which there is a slowdown but election . Election yes, Bengal and Tamil Nadu elections resulted in a slowdown just before the the last 15 days, you see a slowdown. But generally, I think the undercurrent remains strong.
Indrajit Agarwal
AnalystsSure. And lastly, if I may, for your best estimate, what would have been the industry growth for March quarter. .
Atul Daga
Executives6% to 7% is what my learner team over here tells me. .
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Josh Deepa from Nomura.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
AnalystsHello, and congratulations on a very good set of numbers. So my first question is regarding media segment. As you have highlighted that 100% brand integration is done, and you also highlighted that that only a small portion of volumes was under India Cements brand. I just wanted to understand that the delta of incremental EBITDA per ton. How much of that reaching INR 1,000 per tonne, how much of that will come from the cost efficiency measures that you are undertaking and realization improvement. . So if you can give us a sense of -- because I believe most of your investment volumes are already under UltraTechbrand. So how much more potential is there for realization improvement? And how much cost efficacy measures will be there.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, and -- so first and foremost, cost improvement programs. And again, I'll go back to my earlier quarter commentaries. January, March '28, you will see all the efforts on CapEx converting into efficiency improvement. We are still seeing 200 per tonne of efficiency improvement, which will come into the city of India Cement. Now it all depends. Second point, and I'll come to your -- 1 more aspect that you raised. How do we look at the earnings from the volume of India Cement. Mind you, there is INR 200 of EBITDA per tonne on India Cements volume, which is sitting in UltraTech boxs. The INR 497 for the quarter and because of the -- during the quarter, gradually the transition was done it's not exactly INR 200 but about 176 . Total is 670, okay. So we have reached a number of EUR 60 per tonne on India cement. Now price increases, along with efficiencies, new capacity addition, operating leverage, everything will take us beyond INR 1,000 mark. .
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
AnalystsUnderstood, sir. Understood. And last 1 second question, it's a 2-part question. So first is how you are looking at rural demand, how is that it has been in the March quarter? And in April, also how you're looking at rural demand. And second is, I know I understand that UltraTech at the scale at which it operates, you will have multiple measures to mitigate this cost increase. But let's say, without those measures, what sort of realization improvement will be required to maintain the margins? These are my 2 questions.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSo you have asked 3 or 4 questions, and I'll restrict you to 2 questions. So the last question, I will limit it because that's a very difficult question. Difficult to quantify. As far as rural demand is concerned, we have operated at 90% capacity utilization across our network. Some plants would have operated at 95% and 100% also. And average is all across the country, we are operating at more than 80%. . If you marry this point to the fact that our trade mix has not diluted. We are 66, 67 hovering around those numbers only, which means my rural demand has continued to stay steady. I hope that answers your question. And too early to talk about the important aspect, cash flows in rural markets improved with good crops, which helps the rural demand. And too early to say now for the quarter how things will pan out in the remaining 3 months -- remaining 2 months, we will see. As for your other point, you mentioned -- it's a moving target, costs, let's say, bags from INR 9 to INR 15 a bag, that's a INR 6 delta, which has already happened to that much price increase as required. Similarly, fuel is a very difficult one. At least this quarter, I don't expect my fuel cost to go haywire. We were at 1.81 or -- sorry1.77 per kcal, max, it might go to 1.8 million -- so that's the only -- and I'm just throwing this number off the cuff. I don't remember exactly where we will land at. The biggest impact, which was there in our EBITDA profile was exchange dollar 94.85. And today, it's 94.92, it had come to below 93 also. Quarter end reporting, what is required remains to be seen. So price increases that have already happened, well, in my view, sustain the profitability.
Jashandeep Singh Chadha
AnalystsUnderstood, sir. I know you don't like answering price question, so I was trying to hide it.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. I'm also slightly smart,.
Operator
Operator[Operator Instructions] We take the next question from the line of Ritesh Shah from Investec.
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsCongrats for a good set of numbers. I have 4 questions, if you are now Okay. Sir.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesOnly 2 .
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsOne is India cement. We're doing the right things -- when do we see the day when we actually merge it? I understand there are a few weeks cases which are there. But any time lines over here? Second, not so related RBC, it's something which the group has pursued. -- any assurance from you that Ultratech balance sheet won't be cashed or something which is ring-fenced I'll just get over here if you allow then I'll go for the other 2, sir. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSo the second question, I think our Chairman himself had said UltraTech balance sheet is ring-fenced long ago when as persons were made about UltraTech supporting Idea, I think those were the days I'm going back. Not a penny has moved from UltraTech balance sheet for any other purposes. So we remain committed. And again, as I said, unless you missed the point, I have INR 10,00 crore of CapEx happening every year, at least for 4, 5 years going forward, that's about INR 50,000 crores of incremental CapEx, okay. So my operating cash flows is meant for meeting my CapEx requirements and for my shareholders.
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsFor India Cement?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, so there are those complicated legal issues, which we have inherited -- we -- as I mentioned, we don't want to take any risks with UltraTech, the main company and our main board. Once we are able to -- and we are trying our level best to get those cases closed because they are done all the cases, and there's been no movement, nothing. Once we are convinced that these -- there is no risk to us. We could look at the next phase of integration.
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsSure. Sir, I'll just try my luck. Sir, third question, RMC, we have done very well. What's the end code over here, I think the number of plants, revenue growth, revenue growth is more than volume growth. what is correct that we are doing over here and eventually in plans to monetize this particular business, that's on RMC. Second, sir, ESG clinker factor, you indicated our target is 1.54x I just wanted to get a sense by what year is this? And how do you see the industry's ratio equivalent to 1.54x going forward. I understand we are OTC heavy, and we have historically maintained that whatever we do, we will have clinker backing at 70%. Is it something which will change going forward? Or we continue to play on the same hypothesis.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesWe will always be fully drinker backed Second point, 1.54x is our target to reach by fiscal '28. I don't want to comment about the industry. But all I can say is UltraTech is a far stronger company in all aspects as compared to rest of the industry. Quarter-on-quarter and there's enough -- not -- I don't have to say enough data, but actual data which is available if you just sum up the performance of cement industry, rest of industry put together and UltraTech on 1 side, we have delivered growth higher than the industry, EBITDA per tonne higher than the rest of the industry. So these -- this doesn't come by magic. all the efforts, whether it is clinker conversions, which means composite cement, which gives me more profitability, RMC or all other aspects of our business, which we are doing, which help us to be far ahead. As for RMC, RMC is an integral part of our business. I don't see need or don't see that thought process as of now to monetize it.
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsEventual target..
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSorry, what .
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsSir, even to tan RMC? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesTarget in terms of number of plants. .
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsSo we are 3% of the volumes, like is there a target to go to 6% in 3 years, something of that...
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesNot really in terms of percentage. But yes, we will continue to grow because RMC is the future growth engine -- for the -- obviously, the more and more urbanization is happening, I think the RMC is going to be .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI think we are invested for the future, Ritesh, to be honest, to meet the requirements. And if you look at our UAE business, it is 0 trade sale. It's all sales to RMC people. So -- or globally, U.S. market or anywhere else you see they are globally back cement [indiscernible]. So is an integral part of our offering and of our business model.
Ritesh Shah
AnalystsSure. Sir, I have 1 more question probably on a..
Atul Daga
ExecutivesThis is 10. Okay.
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Pinakin from HSBC.
Pinakin Parekh
AnalystsCongratulations on great numbers. So 1 question we keep on getting from investors over the last few months is that -- the other industries, industries like steel, land, agri and PwC must take an aggressive price hike in the face of cost pressures. But the cement industry has struggled to raise prices starting in November, the price hikes have been relatively muted. Even as demand has been strong. what would you attribute the cements relative underperformance the versus other building material industries in terms of taking price hikes?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesFragmentation of the industry is as sweet and small answer, Pinakin that I can give you. Yes, I think that would sum up everything.
Pinakin Parekh
AnalystsSo sir, just taking that point forward to the second question, assuming sir, that the Middle East conflict stays where it is. We have petcoke at 160 these oil at $100 a barrel for the remainder year, does this mean that the industry would struggle to pass on fully the cost pressures eventually this year?
Atul Daga
ExecutivesNo. We are already passing on the -- if every industry is passing on the cost, so are we March, somebody had asked me why prices are not going up in the month of March. March is never a period to increase prices because it's a volume period. Price increases always happen and every industry has its own fabric and own pattern of behavior. July, September monsoons impact cement industry only. So price increases generally are seen in the first quarter of the financial year, not in the last quarter of the financial year. . Besides, obviously, demand supply is always the demand is robust prices go up. And you are there, I am also here [indiscernible] we will talk and we'll demonstrate. I think UltraTech will be steps ahead in terms of performance. again. .
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Raashi from Citigroup. .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsSo just on your point that the fuel cost will go from 1.77 to 1.8 in the quarter. This is due to your long-term contracts, right? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesMultiple things, long-term contracts, inventory, sourcing, sourcing, changing the fuel mix, multiple things. So .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsAnd inventory last. I just trying to understand that should the situation persist where in pet coal prices sustain at like the 160, 160 plus. When do you start feeling the impact .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesJuly, September would be some ripples that you will see, again, which we will be able to manage better than the industry because of our supply contracts and domestic sources of coal.
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsSo on these .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesIn the war early, Rashi, why are you wanting it prolonged? .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsI'm just trying to guess that on your supply contracts, like how do these work? Like do you have them going on? I mean, it's a continuous rotation and therefore, this can persist? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes, it can process. It will persist. .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsOkay. And on the packaging side, between the fourth quarter to now, what is going to be the delta? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesFourth quarter to now roughly INR 9 a bag .
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesYes, fourth quarter to now, there was some increase and there was some decrease also. So I would say it should remain .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesINR 9, INR 6 a back, sorry. 9 to 15, so it's about INR 6 a bag. .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsEssentially, the price hikes that the industry has taken, should be, in our opinion, adequate for you to offset the .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. Yes, Yes. .
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsOkay. And just on the industry demand, you mentioned that the industry demand actually were at 6% to 7% in this quarter. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes.
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsFull year number is again similar?
Atul Daga
Executives6.5% is what my colleagues tell me for the full year.
Raashi Chopra
AnalystsAnd your volume UltraTech me expectations for FY '27 like growth price? -- or 27 million
Atul Daga
ExecutivesNext financial year. we would target double-digit growth. .
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Ashish Jain from Macquarie. .
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSir, my first question is the price hike is sufficient to offset cost. In that your factoring coal cost also adjust packing cost given coal, you said will not impact in June. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI'm factoring in everything.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. Okay. Okay. Sir, secondly,
Atul Daga
ExecutivesExcept for if you take dollar to INR 100 that I have not -- I'm not factoring in, which is a P&L at the end of the quarter. .
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAnd diesel as well, which we will move and we will do. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. Yes. that has not been acted in .
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSir, secondly, earlier on the call, I think you said that there is a mark-to-market hit on your ForEx loan, can you quantify that? And is it above EBITDA? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesWhat do you mean above EBITDA is part of my cost yes, it's within -- it's not an extraordinary item, not a finance cost, right? -- sort of .
Unknown Executive
ExecutivesYes, it is a HIP to EBITDA. SP1 Yes, to EBITDA. .
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsCan you quantify that? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesAout 140 INR 30 a tonne. 120 yes. .
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsOkay. Sir, secondly, you also said that backing cost impact was felt only in March month, -- and if I heard you right, you said it is INR 90 crores just for the month. Did that hear you right? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSo shall we assume that that's the run rate which will continue given there's no relief on packing.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesNo, no, no. Because as Jamal also mentioned, prices have stabilized, we have built volumes of our inventories and doing alternate sources. Mind you, nobody, I think, would have as many sources like UltraTech does, we have almost 150 suppliers across the country. supporting us with bags. We are doing some other things also to ensure we are able to source bags and maintain costs. So INR 90 crores was a hit, which was -- the cost of the bag had gone up further also beyond INR 15, then it stabilized 15% or even today, it would be INR 13 or Yes, it's marginally due not INR 90 crores cannot be analyzed. More Ashish, we have taken care of that with price increases.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsRight. Okay. Sir, lastly, just on pricing, if you can like shall we think that given the kind of cost inflation and all price hike is here to stay? Or you are seeing some pushback in terms of the channel or demand impact -- are you seeing that kind of concerns on.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI believe it's here to stay. Because this is impacting every cement player in the country in every Nuken corner. It's not a one-off. It's not 1 region. Everybody is getting impacted. So everybody wants to protect their balance sheet and P&L.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsRight ,sir, my second question is just on India cement, the 100, given some of the EBITDA of India cement is getting booked in UltraTech stand-alone, your INR 1,000 per tonne guidance includes that or that is what inditement can eventually report you think in spite of the tolling agent? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesI'm sorry. I missed your question. What did you say?
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsAnd sir, even some of the EBITDA per tonne of India cement is getting booked in UltraTech stand-alone because of the tolling arrangement and the sales being done by -- at -- the INR 1,000 guidance, which you speak for India cement includes that 1 which is getting booked in UltraTech or it is pure India cement EBITDA per tonne, which will come purely through cost savings and all.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYes. So all inclusive. So you 800 in India cement books and 200 of that coming in UltraTech books. But again, Aashish don't get discarded because when we have committed INR 300 of cost improvements and already delivered [indiscernible] the size and to the second decimal -- when I'm -- and I'm also saying that we will do more than $300. So that gives you some indication of with India cement.
Unknown Analyst
AnalystsSir, just on the long term, while you've kind of clarified that INR 10,000 crores will be the CapEx for UltraTech. The cash generation will be much higher than that in my assumption at least. So how should we think about
Atul Daga
ExecutivesYou just saw what the board did. And I clarify. I think you were not there on the call when I spoke about dividends. Very thought through strategy by the Board, enough, we have presented enough position to the Board before they came to the conclusion that, yes, it's now time to reward the shareholders.
Operator
OperatorWe take the next question from the line of Satyadeep Jain from Ambit Capital.
Satyadeep Jain
AnalystsMr. Daga. Just a follow-up question on the dividend asking to see that special dividend, you have a lot of confidence in the cash flow that's significantly higher than what the CapEx you're looking at. So can we expect because this is a special dividend. Can we expect like a target on dividend payout or I missed part of it in the initial, just trying to understand or maybe increase the dividend rate. And this is also in the context of sometime back when we saw the wire and cable investment, I think you mentioned that any other investment in the building material industry for the next 5 years, UltraTech is not looking at just seeking a confirmation that you're looking at INR 10,000 crores CapEx and any incremental dividend cash flow
Atul Daga
ExecutivesINR 10,000 crores, sorry, please finish first, yes.
Satyadeep Jain
AnalystsINR 10,000 crores CapEx, incremental cash flow build it as a return of capital to shareholders. Is that understanding correct? And should we not look at higher dividend rate or maybe a target of return on capital, it's profit .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesSo I have my CapEx plan. And as I also mentioned during our commentary that we are already writing up blueprint beyond 240 million tonnes, 40 is already staged. We have close to plus/minus INR 15,000 crores to be plus minus I'm saying not an accurate exact number. to be spent on that, there will be CapEx on cement beyond 240 million tonnes further. And that is what I'm talking about INR 10,000 crores of CapEx, which will happen on cement year-on-year and yet our OCF will be large enough to reward the shareholders.
Satyadeep Jain
AnalystsThat I understood. But should we -- this was a special dividend? Just trying to understand, given this CapEx you're looking at OCF,why not consider a higher dividend rate or maybe come in to a return .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesThis is I can get. So I don't know what's your question. So I -- okay, whether next year also, it will be the similar dividend I am not the person to call that out. It depends on the OCF for the year. It depends on the Board's decision once they look at the annual performance, my guess is the direction is already visible. And certainly, again, I also called out 2020, we were at 10% of profit. in 3 or 4 years, we jumped to 37% of profit, and that's a leapfrog jump right now. It's 3x last year's dividend, which is tables. So next year also, it could remain the same. It could go up or it could come down if performance is not good, then it would come down. We will manage our balance sheet, we will not over-leverage the balance sheet.
Satyadeep Jain
AnalystsOkay. That's fair. And just a clarification on that. So wire and cable was an investment decision. So apart from that, no other efficiencies for next few years, right? .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesAs of now, I don't have anything. .
Satyadeep Jain
AnalystsJust 1 last question for Dan. The new plant that you're setting up the ongoing and then you won't be looking at. Are you adding any thermal plants here because you have ambitious green.
Atul Daga
ExecutivesNo, no, no. No thermal capacity. So we are adding a higher level of WHRS, tying up renewable and several locations, grid is also available now. So we are not adding any thermal capacity.
Operator
OperatorLadies and gentlemen, we take that as the last question. I'll conclude the question-and-answer session. I now hand the conference over to Mr. Atul Daga for his closing comments. .
Atul Daga
ExecutivesThank you so much, everybody, for joining us and patiently listening to us. For us, it has been a very satisfying rewarding and landmark quarter, landmark here generating INR 3,000 crores of PAT for the quarter INR 8, 000 crores plus of overall PAT for the year, integration done, volume growth rising and stable 200 million tonnes of capacity and a stable and growing cash profile that we see for our company. And I think on the cake was music to our ears when the Board considered this dividend of 2,400%. So I think everything has gone very well for us this year and god willing, we will continue to deliver stellar performance year after year. Thank you so much.
Operator
OperatorThank you. On behalf of UltraTech Cement Limited, that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us, and you may now disconnect your lines.
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