Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield SE (URW) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, and welcome to Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield's half year results presentation. I'm pleased to update you on the positive business momentum we have seen during the first half of the year. While the macroeconomic environment has become more challenging, we have performed well. This performance has translated into a higher adjusted recurring earnings per share, our core metric of underlying performance, leading us to increase our guidance for the year. As anticipated, sales across our retail assets have recovered and are at an exceeding levels for the same period in 2019. This has resulted in an increase in sales based rent with leasing demand driven by quality of our assets and our affluent customer base. We have also seen increased demand across our office portfolio as major tenants shift to our higher-quality buildings with strong sustainability credentials. Our Convention & Exhibition division enjoyed a significant recovery with net operating income trending towards pre-COVID levels. And we continued to progress both our European and U.S. disposal programs, delivering a reduction of our net debt. During the period, we also raised EUR 1 billion of long-term mortgage debt. The solid performance across all business divisions resulted in EBITDA up 48% versus H1 2021. And adjusted recurring earnings per share, up 53% to EUR 4.95 per share. This operating performance translates into improved key credit ratios with net debt to EBITDA down from 16.6x to 11x since H1 2021, while our interest coverage ratio has increased to 4.5x from 2.9x during the same period. This improvement has been supported by our net debt reduction as we progress on our deleveraging program. Let's look at our operational performance by region. Here, we show sales and footfall by quarter as well as monthly sales in local currency. The overall picture, traffic is steadily increasing. Our malls are busy and they are driving business for our retailers. Sales are consistently higher than 2019 in the U.S., are reaching and exceeding 2019 marks for the first time in Continental Europe and approaching 2019 levels in the U.K. Going forward, while our traffic still shows some lingering impact from the pandemic, we have room to grow. Even when considering the current macroeconomic environment, we'll continue to recover visits generating further sales opportunities for retailers at our malls. Before going deeper into performance for each region, let's have a closer look at our U.S. portfolio and its performance. Flagship assets, excluding our central business district locations in New York and San Francisco represents 74% of our overall U.S. GMV. These assets saw extremely strong performance in the first half, with sales at 114% of 2019 levels and footfall at 93%. Our regional assets which are predominantly of better quality and perform above the U.S. market average represent 14% of our U.S. portfolio and performed strongly at levels close to our flagships. Our 2 central business district locations, Westfield San Francisco Center and Westfield World Trade Center in New York continue to be affected by the slow return to offices in major markets. San Francisco Center has also faced a range of specific challenges related to security unlike some other major cities, the broader deterioration of the operating environment in the central business district. The solid sales performance we see in the U.S. speaks to the high level of traffic and activity across our centers. Like-for-like shopping center NRI increased by almost 15% supported mainly by lower debtors, thanks to improved collection and the positive effect of our leasing strategy, which has enabled higher sales-based rent, up 77% versus H1 2021 and over 4x H1 2019. This like-for-like NRI growth is also driven by the return of commercial partnerships activity. A number of product launches have been organized by prime brands in the auto, fashion and luxury sectors, including Van Cleef, Vinfast, and Burberry. And advertising sales were especially strong, up 139% versus H1 2021 with major campaigns for leading brands like Chanel, Cartier, Tiffany and Dior. Retailers are attracted by the energy and dynamism of our assets, which has led to a 60 basis points improvement of U.S. vacancy to 10.4% at improved conditions for long-term deals as commercial retention returns. Rent collection is steadily increasing at 94% for the first half. We expect this metric to improve over time, as demonstrated by our continued collection of 2021 rents, increasing from 80% when first reported to 94% today. We see a similar pattern in the performance of our urban portfolio. Like-for-like retail NRI is up 48%, thanks to the end of COVID-19 rent discounts and lower doubtful debtors as well as higher sales base rents, which at EUR 24 million are above 2019 levels when accounting for the impact of disposals. Commercial partnerships delivered over EUR 25 million of revenues, up 91% compared to H1 2021 and up 25% compared to H1 2019. This has been driven by the new media brand and data partnerships division we announced at our Investor Day in March. Media advertising specifically is trending towards 2019 levels, up 77% compared to H1 2021. Rent collection is steadily improving, reaching 96% in H1, up from 93% at the time of the Q1 trading update. And again, we are seeing a continued improvement in 2021 collection rates. The overall EPRA vacancy rate for Europe was 4.9%, in line with the year-end 2021 levels. The MGR uplift for deals above 36 months has increased to 8.6%, up from 0.8% in H1 '21, demonstrating the growing commercial tension at our flagship destinations. Looking at leasing next, where activity is strong and the proportion of deals longer term -- longer -- sorry, than 36 months, has increased to 59% from 44% from the first half of last year. We are confident in the recovery of our assets and the pragmatic decision to sign a higher proportion of shorter-term leases during the pandemic has proven to be right. We protected long-term asset value, kept leasing momentum and created the conditions to compensate for the MGR we gave up with sales base rents. In the first half of 2022, we have almost doubled 2019 SBR levels, reaching EUR 55.5 million. With a high level of MGR uplift on long-term leases highlighted previously, the overall uplift is at almost 2.7% in H1 compared to minus 6.5% last year. At our Investor Day, we showed you that the winning formula for retailers is omnichannel with a strong drive to store strategies and that having the right stores in the right locations is vital to profitability. This trend is supporting our leasing success with our top 50 European retailers signing leases with us in H1 for stores that are on average 12% larger than their current size. We have seen a further acceleration of drive to store strategies in recent months with leading retailers like Inditex, pushing consumers to stores by charging for online returns. In the current macroeconomic environment, another element to look at is the evolution of online retail. Pure online players and marketplaces are facing major challenges to their business model with higher cost of capital and margins compressing due to increasing cost of labor and logistics, we are seeing them offer less aggressive discounts, limit free shipping and charge for returns. This is effectively eroding the prime drivers of their original appeal and driving customer acquisition costs even higher. For DNVBs, digital native vertical brands, this is increasing the vital importance of physical retail in their expansion strategies. Those who are not yet open stores will, and those who have opened stores are expanding faster like Swedish apparel brand NA-KD, we recently signed a lease at Forum des Halles, their first store in France. For online marketplaces, specifically, higher costs are also forcing them to raise fees on their sellers hurting the businesses that ultimately are the engine of their product assortment. This context, combined with the recovery of physical retail explains the decrease of online penetration as seen in the U.K. where Internet sales are as a proportion of total retail have fallen to 25% from 38% at the peak of the COVID pandemic. And Green Street research in the U.S. shows that brick-and-mortar growth has remained above e-commerce growth since Q2 2021. It is clear, physical retail in the right locations will continue to grow in an omnichannel environment and Unibail-Rodamco-Westfield is best positioned to gain market share. Retailer and customer appetite for assets is based on the quality of our properties, their easily accessible locations and the affluence of their catchment areas. The concentration of our portfolio on flagship destinations and the quality of those assets is well understood. In Europe, it is significantly weighted towards the best cities and catched areas with 83% of centers in the top 30 cities and the GDP per capita of the catchment areas where we operate, almost 60% higher than the national weighted average. In the U.S. household income in our portfolios catchment areas is doubled, the national average, and 60% of our GMV is in California, the world's fifth largest economy by GDP. In the context of inflation, our customers have a higher purchasing power, making them more resilient to the current macroeconomic environment and consequently, more attractive to retailers. Our ability to attract on retail leading tenants is also enhanced by our proactive asset management approach, where we evolve and adapt our assets to create additional value while meeting both tenant and consumer demand. We know where and how to repurpose existing retail space to high-growth alternatives, ensuring commercial tension that benefits our wider leasing activity and introduces new uses that drive traffic. The former House of Fraser location at Westfield, London will be repurposed into a premium co-working space by the ministry, including a multistudio fitness, a rooftop bar and restaurant. Scheduled for delivery in 2024. This is a vibrant and dynamic addition to the center that will be financially accretive and reduces overall retail GLA to add to the customer appeal of the destination. In other cases, we focus on retenanting space to extend the offer. At Parquesur in Madrid, we anticipated the potential departure of El Corte Inglés in 2024 and started to work on the alternative offer. Ultimately, we decided to negotiate an early departure and secure termination income. We are now 49% pre-let and target to open at 100% let in H2 2020. Another opportunity is to retenant and reshape an area that is not performing to its full potential. This is what we are doing at Rue de la Boucle at Westfield Forum des Halles where we are creating a new shopping district in food hall that also connects to the largest cinema in Europe, the UGC Cine Cite Les Halles which are over 3 million visits in 2019, 90% pre-let. This project is expected to be delivered in the course of H2. Talking about development, we delivered 2 projects in H1, representing a URW total investment cost of EUR 0.2 billion. The office building at Gaîté Montparnasse which we handed over to [indiscernible] co-working operator, [ Roja ]and the Westfield Topanga extension on the site [indiscernible] in Los Angeles with an offer that will open in phases and started with a new AMC theater in June and will be followed by a food hall at the end of the year and the luxury district, including a Hermès flagship store in 2023. Since December, there have been changes in the delivery dates of various projects, notably due to supply chain disruptions and labor shortages linked to the crisis in Ukraine and the lockdowns in China, which have also increased URW TIC. We added the Ministry coworking project with the controlled pipeline for an expected TIC of EUR 60 million and move the Lightwell project from control to committed for an expected TIC of EUR 140 million. All this together led our pipeline to move from EUR 3.2 billion to EUR 3.3 billion, out of which, EUR 1.4 billion has already been deployed. In development, as in everything we do, our Better Places 2030 commitments are at the core of our activities. Looking at 2 of our urban regeneration projects for which leasing is open, our sustainability commitments and their environmental credentials are a critical element driving demand. In Hamburg, the largest active city center project in Europe, the retail component is now pre-let at above 60%, up from 47% at the full year and the first of 3 office buildings to be delivered in 2024 has been fully let to Shell for its German quarters. At Lightwell in project La Défense, our energy-efficient retrofit of an existing building, we have signed a 9-year lease with Arkema, a global leader in specialty materials for 80% of the [ GMV ] at prime rent with lease incentives below market leverage. For these projects and orders that we are leasing, sustainability is increasingly a decisive factor in tenants decision-making. We also continue to make progress on deleveraging. In Europe, we have completed 80% of our target and are on track to secure the remainder of our EUR 4 billion disposal program. We continue to streamline our U.S. regional portfolio. We sold the Promenade Mall for $150 million in H1 at a 60% premium to the latest GMV. And we are actively engaging the market on these regional properties on an individual asset basis, which has generated a good level of activity. The strong performance and unparalleled quality for our flagship assets, along with the sensitivity of the loan-to-value ratio shown on the table here underpins our confidence in our ability to deliver the company by radically reducing our financial exposure to the U.S. by end of 2023. I will now hand over to Fabrice to take you through our results in more detail.

Thank you, Jean-Marie, and good morning, everyone. As operating conditions normalized in the course of H1 2022, we saw a clear recovery in terms of tenant sales, operating performance and results. This, combined with the ongoing debt reduction from our deleveraging plan drove a progressive improvement of the group financial ratios. Adjusted recurring earnings for H1 2022 was EUR 4.95 per share, a 53% increase on H1 2021. EBITDA, the key indicator that we presented to you during the Investor Day increased by 48%, supported by a solid like-for-like performance across all activities. I will now take you through the various drivers on the following slide. The main driver of adjusted recurring earnings growth was the improvement in shopping center results following the end of COVID-19 rent relief representing EUR 1.25 per share. Excluding rent relief for both shopping centers and airports at group share, AREPS growth was 18.1%. This growth comes from the underlying operating performance of standing shopping centers. Assets delivered in 2021, including the Westfield La Part-Dieu extension and Westfield Mall of the Netherlands also contributed to the net rental income increase of the shopping center division. The growth also includes the recovery of the convention exhibition net operating income, representing $0.69 at 100% and $0.35 at group share. This performance is partly offset by the mechanical increase in taxes and minority interest as well as the $0.28 impact of disposals. And these growth drivers are totally consistent with those presented at the Investor Day. Moving now to net rental income for shopping centers. On a like-for-like basis, NRI was up almost 40% in the first half. This includes a 24.8% contribution resulting from the absence of COVID-19 rent relief. Excluding this factor, the like-for-like NRI is up 12.8%. This is made up of 3.3% of sales base rents, mainly in the U.K. and the U.S., reflecting positive retailer sales evolution and the group's effective leasing strategy. The other category increased by almost 12%, thanks to lower doubtful debtor provisions in H1 2022. The reversal of provisions made in prior years as well as income from parking and commercial partnerships. The positive rent effect in Continental Europe of 0.6% includes an indexation contribution of 3.8%. Excluding the key variable of COVID-19 rent relief, regional like-for-like performance was plus 13% in Continental Europe, plus 16% in the U.S. and minus 2.6% in the U.K. U.K. figures were down as a result of higher utility charges in H1 2022 and a positive insurance claim in H1 2021. Moving to rent collection, which is now at 96% and is nearing pre-COVID collection levels of 97% for the group and 98% in Europe. In parallel, we collected EUR 211 million of unpaid rents relating to 2021 in the first half. This led to an improvement of 2021 rent collection from 88% in February to 92% at the end of July 2022. This translated into a reversal of provisions of EUR 33 million, positively affecting H1 2022 accounts. This is a good demonstration of our conservative provisioning approach in the context of last year as well as our ongoing efforts to collect rents. Bankruptcies declined further in H1 2022 and were down over 50% versus the first half 2021. The 102 stores affected by bankruptcies across the group's portfolio represent just 0.9% of total stores. This figure was 1.8% in H1 2021 and 2.4% in 2021 for the full year. The total leasing revenues, including service charges, which remain exposed to tenants currently in some form of bankruptcy procedure amount to just 0.3%. And once again, thanks to the quality of our assets, tenants remain in place or were replaced in the majority of the cases, representing 82% of the units affected. Moving now to vacancy. Overall group vacancy continued to track downwards and is now below 7%. Continental European vacancy rate is 4%, in line with year-end 2021 levels after the usual seasonal uptick of vacancy that was recorded in the first quarter. U.K. vacancies decreased from 10.6% to 9.7%, with high levels, mainly at Westfield London that are being addressed by proactive leasing efforts. U.S. levels continued to decrease at 10.4%, down by 60 basis points from December and 360 basis points from June last year. U.S. flagship vacancy decreased by 100 basis points to 8.3%, close to pre-COVID level of 7.9%. Higher occupancy was driven by the dynamic and effective leasing strategy deployed in recent years, focusing on short-term deals to reduce vacancy while protecting asset values with long-term leases. This strategy has paid off as we've seen with the significant year-on-year vacancy reduction, particularly in the U.S. The group is now focusing on deals of better quality both in terms of rental values and duration. This translated into a higher MGR side in H1 2022 versus previous period at EUR 211 million plus 29% compared to H1 2021 and plus 12% compared to H2 2021. In Continental Europe, we saw a continued increase of MGR side, up plus 48% year-on-year at EUR 114 million and a 24% increase in number of lease signed. In the U.S., we signed $70.9 million of MGR this half year compared to $65.3 million last year from fewer deals. In total, the proportion of long-term deals continue to increase, reaching 69% of the MGR side in H1 2022 compared to 54% last year. On a volume basis, this is 59% compared to 44% in H1 2021 with major increase in both the U.S. and in Continental Europe. This testifies to the ongoing appeal of our centers for retailers in a normalizing market as vacancy decreased and net sales improved. This leasing improvement is also visible in the rental uplift achieved. In terms of MGR impact, this leasing performance delivered a total uplift on long-term and short-term deals of positive 2.7%. Last year, it was negative 6.5% overall. Rental uplift was plus 8.6% in Continental Europe, driven by strong reversion in Spain, Central Europe and France. It was slightly negative in the U.K. at minus 3.6%. The overall uplift was minus 3.4% for U.S. shopping centers, but positive 8.2% for our flagships. There was a negative contribution from U.S. central business district assets where vacancy has increased significantly in H1 for the reasons mentioned by Jean-Marie. This overall performance is supported by the higher proportion of long-term deals as well as the higher uplift on long-term deals plus 11.8%, particularly in Continental Europe and in the U.S., driven by flagship assets. Short-term deals showed a negative uplift of minus 11.7% compensated like last year by increasing sales base rents in the U.S. and the U.K. In the U.S., the sales base rent on 2021 deals amounted to $10.1 million for H1 2022 and are expected to offset for the full year, the minus $26.1 million of negative uplift on these deals. Moving to offices where NRI amounted to almost EUR 34 million. This is a 6.5% increase, thanks to further leasing at Trinity and the delivery of Pullman Montparnasse, and get offices. This was partly offset by the disposal of Solna Centrum and Les Villages. On a like-for-like basis, this was up almost 56% in France and almost 30% on a group basis. Leasing progress in Trinity contributed to this like-for-like progression. In 2022, we signed 2 leases taking over leasing of this asset to 74% at an average rent close to higher strength for La Défense. Regarding development projects, an annual lease was signed in H1 on 25,000 square meter on the Lightwell building in La Défense, representing an 80% pre-letting of this project. Works will be launched in the second half of 2022 with 85% of construction costs being secured. And as mentioned by Jean-Marie, URW signed an 8,000 square meter lease with Shell, representing almost 1/3 of the office space in Westfield Hamburg to be delivered in 2024. This demonstrates the appeal of well-located assets with high sustainability ratings and URW's know-how in this respect is a key asset. Now to Convention & Exhibition. So Q1 still impacted by COVID, C&E activity seen a strong recovery with 272 events held in H1 and 292 bookings and pre-bookings for H2. Bookings for the full year reached 83% of 2018, the last comparable year. This figure increases to 89% when taking into account pre-bookings, a progressive improvement from 81% at the full year. This is above the rental income that we had budgeted for the period exceeding our expectations. And this supports our projection of a return to normal activity in 2023 when we also expect to benefit from the buildup to the Paris Olympics from H2 2023 onwards. The return of convention exhibition activity is reflected in our H1 results. Recurring net operating income amounted to EUR 95 million compared to minus EUR 2 million in H1 2021 and EUR 81 million in H1 2018. H1 '22 figure include a EUR 25 million contribution from the French state to compensate for pandemic-related payers of closures. Excluding these subsidies and restated for the [indiscernible] shows had in H1 2018 and H1 2022, Convention & Exhibition H1 2022, NOI was minus 6.8% below H1 2018, the last comparable year. Moving now to our portfolio values, which stand at EUR 55 billion, a 0.9% increase versus year-end 2021. This primarily comes from EUR 0.9 billion of positive FX impact, thanks to the strengthening of the U.S. dollar. CapEx spend compensated for disposals achieved in H1 2022. H1 portfolio value saw a decrease coming from non-like-for-like revaluation, mainly due to the project cost increases as we field Hamburg. There was a negative like-for-like revaluation of EUR 172 million, mainly attributable to retail, which I will provide more detail on. The like-for-like value of the retail portfolio decreased by 0.3% or EUR 122 million over the last 6 months. In Continental Europe, which represents 68% of the gross market value of the retail portfolio valuations are up 0.8%. Valuations in Continental Europe are bottoming out after an 11% decline since December 2018. These valuations are supported by the disposal prices achieved on the sales side or completed in 2021 and in 2022. U.K. valuations, which represent 5% of the retail portfolio, so a limited 1.4% decline in H1 2022. After an overall decrease of 42% in the past 3 years, due to an increase in discounts and exit cap rate of 190 basis points and an 18% reduction in exit year NRI. This 190 basis point increase assumed by appraisers is higher than the 100 basis points increase in U.K. 10-year government bond over the same period. U.K. assets -- or U.S. assets, sorry, were down 3.1% in H1 2022 and 23% since 2018. Over this period, appraisals increased the discount rate by 50 basis points and kept the exit cap rate unchanged, while U.S. tender government bonds increased by 30 basis points over the period. In parallel, appraisals decrease of NRI exit year assumption by 14 basis points -- 14%, sorry. This decrease is minus 6.3% for flagship assets, while tenant sales and occupancy recovered or even exceeded the 2019 levels. Looking now at URW's debt exposure to rates evolution. As you can see on the graph, the group's financial debt is fully hedged over the next 5 years based on the group's disposal plans. We are fully hedged either through debt kept at fixed rate also hedge instruments. The recent increase in rates and spread led to a positive mark-to-market of the debt and the financial instruments in H1 2022. As a result, the net disposal value NAV, which includes this mark-to-market has increased significantly, up 38.6% in H1 2022 compared to December 2021. Here, we provide an update on the impact of the rate increase on the recurring financial expenses, which is limited, thanks to the hedging instruments we have in place. In total, this only represents 7% of the H1 2022 financial expenses and half of that percentage on a full year basis. The graph shows the increase in URW's financial expenses resulting from an increase in rates compared to December 2021 levels and is consistent with what we presented at the full year. URW is fully hedged over H2 2022 with an exposure mainly on the Euribor rate due to hedging through caps. Since December 2021, the 3-month Euribor has increased by 77 basis points as of July 22. And even if this 3-month Euribor increases further, the impact on the group financial expenses will be limited to less than EUR 20 million. The sensitivity of the debt in other currencies is minor. Looking now at the net reinstatement value. It stood at EUR 163.4 per share at the end of June on the back of the slight increase in valuation. The 2.4% increase is mainly driven by the retained recurring results and positive currency moves, partly offset by negative revaluations as discussed earlier. Moving now to financial ratios. IFRS net financial debt decreased from EUR 22.6 billion to EUR 22.1 billion over the course of the first half. This EUR 0.5 billion decrease is mainly a result of EUR 0.6 billion of disposals, EUR 0.7 billion of retained earnings partly compensated by a negative FX impact of EUR 0.3 billion as well as EUR 0.4 billion spent in CapEx in H1 2022 as we continued our disciplined investment approach. This debt is EUR 21.6 billion on a pro forma basis for the additional disposals signed to date. Following the slight increase in values mentioned earlier, the loan-to-value ratio decreased from 43.3% to 42%, and this falls further to 41.5% pro forma for the disposals already signed but not closed as of 30th of June 2022. The pro forma LTV would be 45.3%, including the hybrid. And as Jean-Marie showed, URW's key credit ratios demonstrated a massive improvement in the first half, thanks to the operational recovery described earlier. And as our debt continues to decrease and EBITDA recovers, we expect to see continued improvements in these ratios. We continue to access credit markets in H1 2022 with a focus on mortgage debt, raising EUR 302 million on Westfield Carré Sénar in the context of its partial disposal and EUR 700 million at 100% through an ESG-linked mortgage refinancing for Central. The group's average debt maturity stands at 8.5 years. We have a strong liquidity position with EUR 2.2 billion of cash at the end of June and EUR 2.7 billion, including the signed disposals covering the EUR 2.3 billion of debt maturing in the next 18 months. This includes the EUR 1.25 billion hybrid maturing in H2 2023. In addition, we have circa EUR 10 billion of credit facilities, allowing the group to decide when to access the debt market and to pursue its deleveraging program in an optimized way. In total, cash plus the credit facility stands at EUR 12 billion at the end of June and EUR 12.6 billion pro forma for the signed disposals. This amount covers the group's funding needs for the next 36 months and this without any additional debt or further disposals. Deleveraging remains the key financial priority for the group and we made further progress in H1 2022 on each of the pillars that were presented to you last year in February. As Jean-Marie commented, we remain totally committed to delivering the company through the radical reduction of our exposure to the U.S. by the end of 2023. CapEx amounted to around EUR 1.4 billion over the last 18 months with EUR 0.4 billion spent in H1, consistent with the group's commitment to limit its CapEx to a maximum of EUR 2 billion for 2021 and 2022. Before I hand back to Jean-Marie, I'm going to now to share a quick update on our EUR 4 billion European disposal program, which is now 80% complete. Since 2021, we have completed or signed EUR 3.2 billion of European disposals at a 5% premium to last suppress values. The EUR 1.2 billion disposals completed or signed in 2022 were on average at a premium of 3% to last suppress values, providing comfort in the valuations. The latest disposals announced are all noncore assets sold at 100% to institutional investors across various geographies. This includes Gera Arcaden in Germany and Almere Centrum in Netherlands, Carré Sénart Shopping Parc in France. We also sell -- and we will also sell an additional 27% stake in Aupark, in Slovakia. A number of discussions for disposals are ongoing and give us confidence in our capacity to deliver our EUR 4 billion disposal target in Europe. That's all for me. Now back to Jean-Marie for some final comments on outlook.

Thank you, Fabrice. As announced at the start of the presentation, we have raised our guidance for 2022 to at least EUR 8.90 based on the operational recovery seen in the first half, achieved in a challenging macroeconomic environment. This guidance also reflects the positive impact of a number of one-offs, including a fine state subsidy for the C&E division. This improved guidance also incorporates the benefit of our hedging program, which will limit the impact of rising interest rates on our financial expenses. In the context of the current macroeconomic environment, this updated guidance does not fully embed, the harder-than-expected sales recovery experienced in Q2 '22 for Continental Europe and the current level of U.S. sales or any further increase in rent collection rate above the level seen in the first half. We also assume no major COVID 19 or energy-related restrictions or any other major disruption to the macroeconomic environment. To summarize, we are confident in our outlook for the 3 following reasons. Our leasing revenues are sustainable and have further growth potential, thanks to higher sales intensity, the role of stores in omnichannel retail, lower vacancy and a favorable commercial tension. Our portfolio is weighted towards the best catchment areas in Europe and air-rated malls in the U.S. where consumption will be less impacted by cost of living increases given higher purchasing power. And while we continue to closely monitor the macroeconomic environment, inflation effects are mitigated by rent indexation in Continental Europe and the turnover rent component of our leases. Let's now open the line for questions. Please limit your questions to 2 at the time to ensure we have time to address all of them. Thank you.

[Operator Instructions] We have a first question from Florent Laroche-Joubert from ODDO BHF.

Yes, thank you very much for this presentation. So 2 questions for me. So first question is on the guidance. Could you please tell us what are the assumptions taken regarding the disposals to be done maybe in H2? The second question. So on the reduction of your financial exposure as the U.S. So we understand that you are confident to reduce this exposure for U.S. flagship by the end of 2023. So -- how are you committed to this time line?

Maybe I will start with your first question on the disposals that have been incorporated in the guidance. So the disposals are -- for H2, obviously, the disposals have already been signed and secured. And in addition to that, we have included disposals to secure our EUR 4 billion disposal program in Europe and some assumptions as well on some regional assets. But nothing about the radical reduction of exposure to the U.S.

And when it comes to the commitment and the -- some of the target that we have to have radically reduce our financial exposure to the U.S. market. As we said, we're confident in our ability to do it by the end of 2023.

Next question from Sander Bunck from Barclays.

Two questions from my side as well. The first one is just trying to get an understanding of which parts of the businesses are not yet kind of at its optimal run rate, i.e., how much upside is there still to be captured if you compare some of the businesses that are performing now compared to pre-COVID, i.e. for C&E, for shopping centers, et cetera? Just trying to understand like how much upside is still left? And the second one is on Slide 31 on the interest rate sensitivity, which is a very helpful slide. I was just wondering if you could say anything on how that would look for FY '23. Is the impact broadly similar? Or should we look at very different numbers?

First, on the level of business. I think that the level of sales in our shopping centers and has been accelerating over Q2 particularly in Continental Europe and the U.K. In the U.S., we remain very high in terms of sales and even June being higher than the other months and higher -- being the top highest month since the recovery that we saw last year. But that's -- then there is the lagging effect. We still have a vacancy that is higher than what we had pre-COVID and we are on the way to reduce this. So I would say that to answer your question, this is what we said during the Investor Day, we're confident that over 2023 we will reach the NOI or the EBITDA that we had pre-COVID and that you will see the full effect in '24?

And when it comes to the financial expenses...

Can you just remind me what that EBITDA is that you would expect?

We said that for Europe, it was the EUR 1.9 billion of EBITDA that was presented during the Investor Day.

Okay. And that's for Europe, okay, fine and for the U.S.

In the U.S., we in fact gave the guidance for 2023 to 2024 regarding just Europe in view of the radical reduction that we expect to complete by then. And for the rest, in terms of NRI, you have the NRI for the U.S. assets and the financial -- the admin expenses are around 1/3 of the EUR 110 million of financial expenses on a half year basis. So that would be the NRI minorities, I mean expenses.

You should really look at us like a pure European play end of '23.

Sure. Sure. Okay. Yes. And then my second question on the interest rate sensitivity slide.

Yes. So in total, so the cost of debt in H1 2020 was similar to the full year 2021, so at 2% in total. So with this increase in the financial expenses mentioned in Page 31, it is likely to increase to 2.1% around. And so you'd have a sort of a similar effect in 2023.

Okay. Fine. So the hedging for '23 is probably similar as it is for FY '22?

Exactly more or less, it's 10 basis points may be different.

Next question from Markus Kulessa from Bank of America.

Very quick question on confirmation about your asset like-for-like growth of minus 0.3% is before any FX effect? And then as you seem very confident on the U.S. reduction, maybe if you can update a bit on the U.S. investment market, what type of buyers you currently see? And on the 4.2% cap rate for your U.S. portfolio, which looks low, if you have anything -- any relating ongoing or something which could lift this cap rate upwards?

Just on your first question, effectively, the minus 0.3% includes any FX effect.

Includes?

Excludes. Doesn't take into consideration.

Excludes. Okay, sorry.

And when it comes to the U.S., we told you previously, we worked on the several options that we have in front of us. So we see a series of different type of buyers. And we commit to confident that we will reduce our exposure radically to the U.S. market by end of 2023.

Reduction meaning disposal?

Yes, it includes disposals, but really the financial -- the reduction of our financial exposure to the U.S. disposals.

Next question from Jonathan Kownator from Goldman Sachs.

If I can come back on the U.S. disposal, could you give perhaps given the context today, the increased interest rate, the lack of appetite interest rate, for shopping centers in the U.S. What actually makes you confident that you can achieve this disposal in 2020 -- by 2023? What have you observed that gives you that confidence? And maybe if you can give a bit more color on specifics, you said different type of buyers, what kind of assets are they looking at? And specifically, if you take San Francisco, which you highlighted has a lot of issues currently, is this an asset where you could potentially have to give back the keys? And are there other assets in which you could compensate to give the keys in the U.S.?

Thank you, Jonathan, for this question. Here, again, the confidence starts by the level of -- when you look at the appetite of the consumers for our assets, the level of recovery since last year, [ 114% ] sales versus 2019 -- June 2019 in our flagship assets. We see that we have the appetite of the consumers. We have the appetite of the retailers as well. You see the decrease in vacancy and with the flagship assets being almost back to where they were before '20 or before the pandemic, and we have very good volume of negotiations -- a good volume of negotiations ongoing. So we're confident that we'll continue to reduce that vacancy. You've seen as well on the flagship, and we shared that the level of uplift that we are able to achieve on the long-term leases. So that's create the confidence. From there, we are totally confident that we would be able to achieve our radical reduction of our financial exposure to the U.S. by the end of 2023. When it comes to the foreclosures on some very specific situations, we are monitoring them and look at the different options. We may, in 1 or 2 occasions, have to give back the keys, but this would be very limited. We have done the job already in Florida.

So just to summarize then, the -- your confidence stems from the current operating performance of the assets as opposed to discussions with potential buyers -- and just on -- also on the operating performance. I mean, how does July look like? Because obviously, you're talking about backward-looking performance. And given the sort of recession that is perhaps coming over the next month in the U.S., I mean the environment is likely to change substantially, and that would obviously have you assume a negative impact on your confidence...

I cannot make a speculation about what will happen. I can look at again June. If I look at the performance in June of our assets and I think that the consumer confidence was already done. We have not today experienced what the market is apparently expecting. So that's if you look at -- and this is across our geographies. If you look at the month-to-month sales in Europe or the Continental Europe, in the U.K. and in the U.S., you see that months after months, we do more -- and that month after month, we have more traffic in our centers. We're at 89% to 2019 levels or pre-COVID levels in France, in Europe globally and we are now at 94%. We still have room to grow through the increase of our traffic, which will generate more sales. I see as well this concentration of the retailers on the best location. I see the effect of this inflation costs, in particular, when it comes to gasoline, logistics onto the online players in the marketplaces. And I see that we have a huge opportunity to gain market share over the next months. And I think that everyone will show that or see you that, sorry.

Maybe just one last question, if I may. Just on vacancy. I mean, obviously, you're describing a pretty strong environment for your assets and your vacancy is flat during the half year. So what does that mean? So -- are you able -- do you think to reduce further that vacancy? Or if you see any deterioration in terms of environment, is this already challenging to maintain at the current Level?

This is where you see that we are already a pure European play because if you look at Europe, we're stable. But if you look at just at the U.K., we've done from what, 10.6% to 9.7%. So vacancy is going down. We were at 14% in H1 last year in the U.S. We are at 10.4%, yes, I was mixing the 10.6% and 10.4%, but 10.4%. And again, we see this reduction as well on the flagship assets. It's just an effect of the weighting of Europe vis-a-vis the rest of our geographies. And in Continental Europe, we are confident that we'll continue to see this vacancy level decreasing over time.

Just o 1 follow-up on that, on the U.K. The vacancy reduction is that linked to the House of Fraser being put in the pipeline or is that [indiscernible] decrease in vacancy?

No, Jonathan, sorry to go too fast to answer the question. But no, House of Fraser was still operating. So we're just shutting down the House of Fraser and then turning this asset into a co-working space. So it was not part of the vacancy.

And next question from Jaap Kuin from Kempen.

First question on footfall and the second on the U.S., if I may. Starting with this footfall, what is your view on the, let's say, difference between the recovery in footfall versus retailer sales? Do you think that there's a permanent disconnect, could be connected to working from home or other factors, will be interesting to see your opinion on whether that should converge or not and whether that should worry us. And then the second question on the U.S. 2 years ago, '23 seemed like a long time into the future. But we actually kind of getting more close to that deadline. So if you don't see the right price for your assets, would you be willing to extend the time line?

So on the footfall, you see we have been recovering but what you have seen since the beginning of the crisis, the pandemic crisis this kind of gap in between the level of traffic and the level of sales that was on an average basis and no signs beyond that, but like 10 points. This has reduced. If you look at the performance of the group in H1, we are 94%, 99% of the sales of 2019. So we'll recover that. There may be a kind of a lingering impact of the remote working. So we may not be back to 100% of the traffic on the same basis than what we had pre-COVID, but our conviction is that our assets are gaining market share. Again, when you look at what the retailers are saying, they close stores -- they open new stores, but they close stores globally and they reduce the footprint in terms of number of those, maybe not in terms of GLA. But with us, they extend and if they do that, it's also for the sake of the profitability. So they closed the nonperforming stores and larger or expand the performing stores with us, meaning that we'll gain market shares to get additional traffic. So I'm confident, as we said, during the Investor Day that over time, our traffic will recoup to 2019 levels and go from there. And for the U.S., again, I think that's here, we see the improvement of our operations going forward, and we're confident that we'll achieve our radical reduction of our U.S. financial exposure by the end of 2023.

Okay. So should we interpret that, that there's not going to be any discussion about potentially lengthening the deadline?

We're very confident that we'll be able to do it by the end of 2023.

Next question from Alvaro Soriano from BNP Paribas.

Just 2 quick questions from my side. On Slide 19, the column Other, could you provide a little bit more color of what exactly those figures reflect because [indiscernible] is the main driver of your NRI performance?

Yes. The other category includes, as I've mentioned, the other variable income on top of the sales base rent, so that would be a commercial partnership, that would be parking income. So that would be the main component of that. And in particular, in the U.K., you see the decline, which is connected, as I mentioned, to the fact that we had received an insurance claim, we had a positive income from an insurance claim in 2021 -- H1 2021, which explained this, but the other income is again mainly connected to this other variable income, plus also the service charges evolution.

Okay. So from now on, those partnerships are going to be part of the like-for-like disclosure, if I understand well?

Yes. In fact, the definition has been consistent over time. So we'll continue on that basis to provide the same type of information.

Okay. And then 18% in the United States is also linked to commercial partnerships to events and those kind of things.

Yes, as you've seen, there was a significant increase in terms of commercial partnership evolution. There's also a recovery of the parking activity. So these are the main elements that explain this evolution.

Okay. Understood. And the second question is on your EUR 210 million of rents collected from 2021 what I can see the impact on the cash flow where you seen your -- in which part of the accounts, I can see it. And then with those EUR 210 million collected, how the rent collection in 2021 looks like?

So regarding the rent collection for 2021, we have said that it has increased from 88% to 92% between February and July of this year. So we saw this reductions or this additional collect in the improvement -- the massive improvement in rent collection between February and July. And when it comes to the accounts where you can see it, these are the accounts of receivable, where you can see this improvement and as well in the working capital. So these are where you could see that. I think what is also interesting to mention is that the reversal of provision that came from this EUR 211 million of collected because, in fact, this is effective cash that we have collected. You see that we had booked some provisions, but we have been I would say, realistic. And I would say, we have taken the appropriate provisioning policy. And this is what is EUR 211 million of cash -- additional cash received and collected led to this EUR 33 million of reversal of provision for the 2021 range.

Okay. So just last question, a follow-up. So in the cash flow, in which line I can see that change of those EUR 210 million, just out of curiosity.

That would be the working capital that improves by around EUR 100 million. Of course, you have other elements in this line, but that's why you would see that.

Got it. Got it, the EUR 19 million working capital change.

Next question from Bart Gysens from Morgan Stanley.

Regarding retail sales, you're broadly back to 2019 levels, which is good, but that's in nominal terms. And over the last 3 years, the cost base for your tenants will have gone up quite a bit, higher input costs, salary costs, rising fast, even higher rents do you monitor what has happened to the margins of your tenants? Is there a way you look at that? And how do you think about that going into a weaker macro environment?

Well, as I said previously, but what you see is that the strategy of the retailers is to close the nonperforming stores. When you look at the sales density in our assets, the level of margin is pretty high. And there are some cutting costs and improving their operating -- or the profitability or the operating cost by just extending the stores with us while they close the nonperforming stores. So that's the way they can then somehow offset part of the inflation cost. And you see this demand and this commercial tension that has been recreated the inflation of cost is not something that is happening for tomorrow. It has started yet, already, sorry. And then when you look at the level of uplift that we have been able to achieve it's 8.6% for our all-in activity for Continental Europe. If you just look at the flagship or the long-term leases that we've signed is 12.1%, I think. So that's what we see. And I think that we'll see even more of this in the coming months with nonprofitable stores being closed and profitable stores being enlarged to accommodate as well the drive-thru store strategy where you see the retailers pushing their customers to go to the stores and set to deliver at home. When you look at Amazon, what Amazon announced, they put this surcharge fee of 5% for the sales on the distribution of their product. They are also increasing their Amazon Prime membership. So that's what they do. And in fact, all this is pushing the retailers to -- one, open stores with us and push their customers to our stores, which will mean higher traffic, and each visit to a store can be termed in another 1.5 visits in the U.S., average of store visited per visit is 2.5, 2.6 and it's almost 2.4 stores in Europe, where the average of the number of stores visited per visit is 3.4. So it's additional opportunities for us to improve the sales of our retailers. It's more a chance to do it. It's also higher traffic hence, higher media advertising revenues. This is why we're confident as well and what we announced during the Investor Day that we do EUR 75 million of net revenues from our media advertising business in Europe in 2025.

And next question from [indiscernible] from Barclays.

I see that one of your hybrid is coming up for a first call in May 2023, and it's a chunky one with EUR 1.25 billion outstanding. Can you please provide guidance on how you're thinking about refinancing it or if you're planning to extend that hybrid?

So as we mentioned, we -- this is part of the EUR 2.3 billion of debt maturing in the next 18 months. So in terms of liquidity, we have the liquidity available to refinance that and when it comes to the way we'll refinance that, I think this will be dependent on where we stand in terms of deleveraging. But in view of the expectation that we have to progress on the deleveraging of the company. By that time, we expect it to refinance it with normal debt.

We have no more questions by phone.

Great. So then thank you for attending this presentation. Thank you for your questions. And obviously, looking forward to seeing you in person or by DC during the road shows that we do over the next 5 days. Thank you so much.

Thank you.