Union Pacific Corporation (UNP) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Greetings. Welcome to the Union Pacific's First Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference call is being recorded, and the slides for today's presentation are available on Union Pacific's website. At this time, it's now my pleasure to introduce your host, Mr. Jim Vena, Chief Executive Officer for Union Pacific. Mr. Vena, you may now begin.

Good morning, Rob, and thank you. Good morning, and thank you for joining us today to discuss Union Pacific's first quarter results. I'm joined in Omaha by our Chief Financial Officer, Jennifer Hamann; our Executive Vice President of Marketing and Sales, Kenny Rocker; and our Executive Vice President of Operations, Eric Gehringer. As you'll hear from the team, we had a solid start to the year. Our reported operating ratio was 60.7%, flat compared to last year, even with a 90 basis point headwind from fuel and leap year. We delivered record first quarter operating performance. Further, we had the strongest carload growth of the Class 1s as we work closely with our customers to meet their needs in an uncertain environment. Now let's discuss first quarter results, starting on Slide 3. This morning, Union Pacific reported 2025 first quarter earnings per share of $2.70, which reflects a $0.19 or 7% headwind from fuel and leap year. Our reported 2025 first quarter net income of $1.6 billion was essentially flat versus last year. Reported first quarter 2025 operating income was flat at 7% volume growth. Robust core pricing gains and strong productivity were offset by business mix, fuel and the leap year. Freight revenue grew 1% versus last year. And if you exclude the impact from fuel surcharge, freight revenue increased 4%, both first quarter records. Looking to the rest of 2025, we will continue to execute our strategy that emphasizes safety, service and operational excellence. Building on the strong foundation with our record first quarter operating performance, we are positioned to deliver. I'll let the team walk you through the quarter in more detail and then come back and wrap it up before we go to Q&A. With that, Jennifer, first quarter financials.

All right. Thanks, Jim, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with a walk down of our first quarter income statement on Slide 5, where operating revenue of $6 billion matched last year's level even with lower quarterly fuel surcharge revenue, a reduction in other revenue and the leap year comparison. Freight revenue of $5.7 billion increased 1% despite the roughly $70 million impact of having 1 less day in the quarter. Digging into the freight revenue drivers further, our strong volume growth in the quarter added 650 basis points to freight revenue. Fuel surcharge revenue of $565 million declined $100 million as the impact of lower year-over-year fuel prices more than offset the higher volume, reducing freight revenue 275 basis points. Core pricing was very strong and reached the highest quarterly level in the past 10 years. Further, pricing dollars net of inflation were accretive to our operating ratio. Despite these robust results, quarterly business mix combined with price for a 250 basis point drag on freight revenue. In addition to volume growth in our lower average revenue per car business lines, such as intermodal and coal, we had the additional dynamic of lower volumes in our higher arch businesses like petroleum, soda ash and finished vehicles. Wrapping up the top line, other revenue declined 19% to $336 million. Included in the year-over-year change are several items, including some that we have discussed previously, such as last year's intermodal equipment sale and the Metro transfer. Quarterly results were also challenged by reduced auto part shipments at a subsidiary and lower accessorial revenue. And finally, you'll recall that first quarter 2024 included a onetime favorable contract settlement of $25 million. Switching to expenses. Operating expense of $3.7 billion equaled last year as solid productivity gains and lower fuel costs offset volume-related costs, inflation and depreciation. Digging deeper into a few of the expense lines, compensation and benefits expense improved 1% versus last year as reduced workforce levels were partially offset by wage inflation. Record quarterly workforce productivity enabled us to limit first quarter cost per employee to only a 2% increase. First quarter fuel expense declined 8% on an 11% decrease in fuel prices from $2.81 to $2.51 per gallon. We also improved our fuel consumption rate 1% during the quarter as we continue to leverage optimization tools such as energy management systems on our locomotive fleet, enhancing train handling while reducing consumption. Purchase services and materials expense increased 3% versus last year, driven by inflation, volume-related costs and a favorable 2024 item, partially offset by lower costs at a subsidiary. Equipment and other rents increased 12%, driven by increased car hire for automotive racks, inflation and demand in intermodal and other traffic that utilizes foreign freight cars. Finally, other expense increased 1% as higher costs associated with destroyed equipment were partially offset by lower bad debt expense and environmental remediation costs. First quarter operating income of $2.4 billion was consistent with last year. Below the line, interest expense declined 1% on lower average debt levels, partially offset by a slightly higher effective interest rate. First quarter 2025 net income totaled $1.6 billion and earnings per share came in at $2.70, both essentially flat versus 2024 despite the $0.19 EPS impact from fuel and leap year. Similarly, fuel and leap year had a 90 basis point unfavorable impact on our reported quarterly operating ratio of 60.7%. All-in, the UP team produced a good quarterly performance and start to 2025. Before I go on, a couple of housekeeping items I want to mention. First is that we now estimate our other revenue will total about $325 million per quarter, reflecting our expectations for lower accessorial and subsidiary revenue. And a reminder that in the second quarter of 2024, our results included a $46 million benefit in other expense from the sale of intermodal equipment, and we have now lapped that transaction. Turning to shareholder returns and the balance sheet on Slide 6. First quarter cash from operations totaled $2.2 billion, up 4% versus last year. In February, we initiated an accelerated share repurchase program for $1.5 billion. And through the quarter, we made open market purchases of an additional $220 million as we more recently took advantage of very attractive share prices. That cash return plus our industry-leading dividend payout enabled us to return $2.5 billion to our shareholders in the first quarter. In the quarter, our net debt increased $1.7 billion as we issued $2 billion of long-term debt and paid maturities totaling $350 million, and this resulted in our adjusted debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 2.8x at the end of the quarter as we continue to be A-rated by our 3 credit rating agencies. Turning to the remainder of 2025 on Slide 7. As we look to the next 3 quarters, it is likely going to be a bumpy ride. In preparation, we've worked through scenario planning and we'll remain agile. Importantly, we will continue executing our strategy and are maintaining the 3-year targets set at our Investor Day last September. In particular, 2025 EPS growth will be consistent with attaining our 3-year EPS CAGR view of high single to low double-digit growth. Similarly, our views on accretive pricing, industry-leading operating ratio and ROIC as well as capital deployment plans still hold. Obviously, there's uncertainty in the marketplace, but the year is off to a good start, and we are delivering value for our shareholders. In fact, April volumes and service metrics were quite strong heading into the Easter weekend. Our focus on safety, service and operational excellence prepares us for whatever lies ahead, and we're confident in our ability to perform. I'll now turn it over to Kenny to provide you an update on the business environment.

Thank you, Jennifer, and good morning. Freight revenues totaled $5.7 billion for the quarter, which was up 4%, excluding fuel surcharges due to increased volume. Despite unfavorable mix, we saw strong core pricing gains, which, as Jennifer mentioned, was the highest absolute quarterly level over the past 10 years. This is a testament to our deliberate focus on maximizing price. Let's jump right in and talk about the key drivers for each of these business groups. Starting with our Bulk segment, revenue for the quarter was up 1% compared to last year on a 2% increase in volume and a 1% decrease in average revenue per car as business mix and lower fuel surcharge revenue was more than offset by core pricing gains and volume. Coal saw strong customer demand due to favorable natural gas pricing. Grain products volume was up for the quarter, driven by increased demand for feedstocks. Locating new customers on our railroad ensures long-term ratable demand and the newest facilities located in Nebraska and Kansas are now running at full capacity. Lastly, food and beverage volume declined in the quarter, primarily driven by consumer preference. Turning to Industrial. Revenue was down 1% for the quarter on a 1% decrease in volume. Strong core pricing gains were offset by business mix, lower fuel surcharges and volume. Petroleum shipments decreased during the quarter due to business shifts, while soda ash was impacted by weaker global demand. This was partially offset by increased rock shipments driven by strong customer demand, coupled with favorable weather conditions compared to last year. Premium revenue for the quarter was up 5% on a 13% increase in volume and a 7% decrease in average revenue per car, reflecting the mix impact of increased intermodal shipments and lower fuel surcharges. Intermodal volumes remained strong based on International West Coast import demand. Additional positive domestic intermodal growth was further supported by business development efforts. Automotive volumes experienced a decline due to reduced OEM production. Turning to Slide 10. Here is our 2025 outlook as we see it today for the key markets we serve. We've had a solid start to the second quarter with AAR carloadings currently up just over 7% compared to last year. Now starting with Bulk, continued challenges for food and beverage is expected primarily based on weakness in the U.S. beer market. We anticipate coal volumes to remain strong in the near term. However, there is always volatility in natural gas prices, so we'll remain agile as we move into the second half of the year. Lastly, we expect grain exports into Mexico to remain strong. For grain products, our intense focus on business development results is expected to mitigate market uncertainties in renewable fuels and associated feedstocks. Moving to Industrial. We anticipate petroleum volume to remain challenged due to business shifts and our commitment to balance the volume at the right margin. Our industrial chemicals and plastics markets will remain favorable based on customer plant expansions and our ability to win incremental volume in the marketplace. For example, we are excited to support Dow's expansion later this year at their Poly 7 facility in Freeport, Texas. And wrapping up with Premium, while tariff uncertainty remains a concern for automotive, we are closely aligned with our customers, providing guidance and solutions every step of the way. On the intermodal side, we anticipate a slowdown in International Intermodal as we move through the second quarter, and we expect decreased volume in the second half of the year due to the higher comparisons as customers diversify back to East Coast and Canadian ports. However, we remain optimistic about growth in domestic intermodal driven by our over-the-road conversions because of our strong service product and multiple channels to win. We are keeping a watchful eye on the market and potential tariff changes that could further impact overall consumer spending. While we navigate the trade policies and face difficult comparisons in the latter half of the year, our team has proactively taken action and hustling to overcome these obstacles. Specifically, earlier this month, we began moving volumes with Lower Colorado River Authority and will continue to ramp up throughout the month. The team's focus on business development is yielding positive results as we see incremental volume from new and expanding facilities across multiple segments like grain products and petrochemicals. In fact, we actively maintain an open pipeline of 200 construction projects, so business development through growth and expansion is always a priority. The team is also setting the stage for future growth. Hyundai Steel Corporation recently joined the Union Pacific Rail network, announcing their first-ever U.S. steel mill in Louisiana. Construction won't be complete for a few years, but this is a positive result of our current business development efforts. With our strong service product, I am confident that we will continue to win new business and take trucks off the road. And as I stated last quarter, our commercial team is crystal clear on acceptable pricing levels based on the service we sold, which is driving strong core pricing gains. I'm proud of the team's ability to deliver a 4% increase in freight revenue, excluding fuel. The team is focused, and I'm very comfortable with our current position. And with that, I'll turn it over to Eric to review our operational performance.

Thank you, Kenny, and good morning. Moving to Slide 12. In the first quarter, we continued to see meaningful improvements across nearly all of our metrics. This is a testament to our strategy and our steadfast focus on providing industry-leading safety, service and operational excellence. Starting with safety, which is the foundation of everything we do. Both personal injury and derailment rates continue to improve versus their 3-year rolling average. In fact, we achieved a first quarter personal injury rate that tied a quarterly record dating back to 2016. Our #1 priority remains returning all employees home safely each and every day. Freight car velocity, the best measure of fluidity on the railroad, improved 6% to 215 miles per day, a first quarter record. The primary driver was further reductions in terminal dwell, which improved 6% year-over-year and also set a new first quarter record. We are turning our customers' assets faster, a win-win as we support their growth initiatives while simultaneously generating future growth capacity within our terminals. On the service front, manifest SPI was 93%, a 6-point improvement, while intermodal SPI at 94% was essentially flat. Our buffer of resources, coupled with improved fluidity, I mentioned earlier, continues to translate into a very high level of service for our customers, and customers are seeing the benefit, rewarding Union Pacific with new business. As Kenny mentioned, we have successfully onboarded our new coal customer while also adding incremental growth coal sets beyond what we had originally planned coming into the year. On the intermodal front, we continue to handle historically high International Intermodal volumes, all while delivering a service we sold to our customers. Now let's review our key efficiency metrics on Slide 13. Throughout the quarter, the team was effective in our approach to asset management, leveraging our buffer of resources to inject assets only as we needed them. That approach paid off as you see improved efficiency metrics across the board. Locomotive productivity improved 1% compared to first quarter 2024. Notably, our active locomotive fleet only increased 3% against the backdrop of a 7% volume growth and normal winter weather challenges we historically experienced this time of the year. While the increased fluidity of our network enabled the performance, we also see the continued benefits from our work on locomotive dwell. Workforce productivity, which includes all employees, improved 9%. More specifically, our active train engine and yard workforce decreased 1%, demonstrating excellent operating leverage against the 7% volume growth. We will continue to support our training pipeline and provide the capacity buffer necessary to navigate an ever-changing environment. Train length in the quarter grew 2% compared to first quarter 2024. Further, we delivered improved train length sequentially despite lower intermodal volumes, which generally provide greater density to drive gains in train length. We will continue to leverage proprietary technologies like Precision Train Builder to safely grow train length while generating mainline capacity for current and future growth. Wrapping up, I'm very proud of the team and the results we delivered. We efficiently leveraged our resources to handle volume growth in a service-focused manner. As we progress throughout the year, we will remain agile and in constant communication with our customers as they analyze their supply chain options. I'm very confident in our ability to control what we can control, whether it be our service product, buffer of resources, asset utilization, et cetera. We are prepared. And as we move forward, I'm certain you will see our resiliency on display. Jim?

Just having a sip of coffee. You were way too fast closing that off, Eric. I thought you still had a couple of lines. Listen, thank you very much. And why don't we turn to Slide 15. Before we get to your questions, I'd like to quickly summarize what you've heard from our team. First, as you heard from Jennifer and Kenny, there are still a lot of unknowns related to volumes and the economy. But what I do know is that we are driving efficiency throughout our network and pricing for the strong value we provide our customers. Eric walked you through the records we're setting across safety, service and operational excellence. The network is fluid, and we are meeting the demands of all our customers. We are in a good position, and we will be agile and responsive as we move forward. We remain committed to the long-term guidance that we laid out at our Investor Day last September, and we are confident we will be the industry leader as we drive value for our shareholders. We have the right strategy, right team and the right focus on the fundamentals, all supporting our ability to unlock the great value of the UP franchise. With that, we're now ready to take your questions. Rob?

[Operator Instructions] And our first question will be coming from the line of Chris Wetherbee with Wells Fargo.

I guess I wanted to talk a little bit about 2025 guidance. So obviously, uncertainty is building here with concerns about maybe some slowing activity, particularly on the West Coast. You guys have talked about sort of growth this year consistent with the long-term targets. And I think that could kind of take a couple of different meanings. So I was kind of curious if you wanted to maybe put a little bit of a finer point, kind of think about what the potential outcomes could be either from an earnings perspective, maybe from an operating ratio perspective. Just want to see if you can put some framework around what you think '25 might look like just given the uncertainty that's out there.

Well, Chris, that's a great question and a great way to start off. So at this point, there's a lot of things: tariffs, economy, what the consumer does, what interest rates are -- what's going to happen with interest rates, what's going to happen with the tax package or the packages that the Congress is looking at doing. So all those things are up in the air. What we look at, at this point in time, we're very comfortable that we're standing by our guidance that we provided last year. Now is it a little muddier at this point than it was when we gave it last year? Absolutely. But at this point, what we're seeing, and that's why Jennifer mentioned, our carloads are pretty strong so far in April. And the mix is pretty strong. So we like what we see, and we just don't want to get -- because everything is so fluid, we'd be remiss to start talking about what's going to happen as we move through the rest of the year. For us, though, what we look at, and it's very key, foundationally, fundamentally, we have a railroad that's operating and we're able to be able to take a look at how we spend money on the railroad and what we're doing in a very efficient manner. And Eric took you through the details of how we're doing and how we're looking at things. And I think we've shown over the last few quarters and especially the first quarter, what's possible with this railroad. If you come in with a fundamental railroad that's operating in a very well -- in a good manner, what happens is, you can build from that. The reaction is what happens with all these items that -- these vectors that I've talked about coming in at us. At the end of the day, I'm comfortable. If we need to react, we will react. But at this point, I think it's so fluid. I woke up this morning to see when I woke up when I normally do. Went to bed last night at midnight after watching that bad hockey game that my team lost real bad, and woke up this morning to see what the news was, the latest. And at this point, it's a day-to-day, week-to-week reaction of what's happening out in the marketplace. So that's why, Chris, we're sticking to our 3-year guidance. We think if everything comes to a normal -- much more normal situation, I think, we will deliver that, and we're very comfortable that we have the opportunity to do that. Jennifer, anything you want to add?

No. I mean, I think you hit all the right points, Jim. And we are looking at it in a number of different ways, both in terms of what we think is going to happen on the demand side. But obviously, Eric and his team has to be prepared in terms of if demand does fall, what are the levers that we can pull. And so when we look at that in totality, we feel comfortable that we've got the right strategy. We're well positioned. And obviously, we want to take advantage of carloads when they're there. And I think we're doing a really good job of that today.

Our next question comes from the line of Tom Wadewitz with UBS.

I guess this is a question along the same theme, which you'll probably get even more after mine. But when we think about your framework for this year and kind of volumes are strong in April, but there are a number of segments that might be pre-shipping or fall off. So I guess if you say, in that kind of 3-year guide and call it high single-digit earnings growth at the low end, is there like a revenue growth or a volume growth assumption that you say, hey, we kind of need to be in this range in order to achieve that? And I guess, I don't know if that's the low single-digit revenue growth. And then I guess just from a year-over-year perspective, if you're flat in earnings in 1Q, but you do full year high single digits, what's the lever that accelerates? Is it just easier comps? Is it kind of volume accelerates? Just I guess, a couple more things of how we understand the frame.

Well, Tom, you know what, it's an interesting question. As you know, there's a lot of puts and takes. If you take a look at our first quarter, the headline, you would say it was a flat year. But if you look at it underneath with the impact of fuel and what we had, we had a pretty good first quarter, especially for a first quarter for Union Pacific that is one of our highest expense side with a lot of things that come in. Fundamentally, we're good. We like the business mix that we have. We like the way the quarter has started off. I am absolutely not sure what's going to happen. And if anybody tells you at any point that they know what's going to happen over the next few weeks, let alone for the rest of the year completely. And I think we'd be remiss to start changing our guidance. The easy thing would have been to come in this morning and just say, listen, there's so much noise, we're pulling our guidance. But we have a job to do, and our job is to react to whatever is thrown at us. At Union Pacific, we've been doing that for a long time. And I do have -- nobody sees it, but I do have a few gray hairs. So I've been around for a while, and I've seen the ups and downs. I think I'd never bet against the United States economy or the United States in general. So at the end of the day, I think we end up in a good place. Whether that's in a few weeks or whether that's in 6 months, but fundamentally, if we can operate the way we are, Kenny and the team are building long-term partnerships with customers, and we have the franchise that we have that handles so many products that Americans use every day, I'm very comfortable, Tom, and we are not going to come off of our -- how we do it. How do we deliver that high single digit, low double digit? Absolutely. It's how we price, volume, how efficient we are, everything that's in the mix that we can control. And I think we've shown over the last few quarters how -- whether we're doing a good job or not. I rate the team because I'm a hard marker, I'm like Walter a little bit. We're average, and I think there's more left for us to do, but I'm very comfortable of where we are right now.

I guess any thoughts on like threshold revenue growth or volume to get there or not?

Tom, first few weeks in April, we're saying, listen, we see a little bit of impact with everything that's going on. But at the end of the day, it's been pretty strong for us. Our Industrial, our Bulk, even the intermodal is pretty strong. But -- and I like to see the Bulk and Industrial where it is because, as you know, it's a different margin business. But I really can't tell you. And Tom, maybe you have a better idea, fill me in if you can, because I can't tell what's going to happen here in the next couple of weeks. But I think at the end of it, we'll see a reasonable position for the United States of America when it comes and will not impact. The worst thing that can happen is it starts to impact what consumers are doing and their thought process and how they spend money. We haven't seen that at this point, but that would be a worry. But at this point, we haven't seen it.

Our next question is from the line of Fadi Chamoun with BMO Capital Markets.

I have a quick question on the pricing. You mentioned the strongest in 10 years for a Q1. How much of that is reflecting maybe the lag impact from the inflation we saw in the last couple of years? And how much is driven by the better service performance of the network in the last year? If you can give some color about kind of what's underlying the strong pricing and how sustainable that is?

Yes, Fadi, thanks for that question. I'll start it off and then kick it over to Kenny. I do think it's important to recall back at our Investor Day where we laid out our vision that we were going to have accretive pricing going forward. And in that, we talked about the fact that we had some catch-up to do that we had the opportunity to touch more of our long-term contracts and that, that was part of what gave us the confidence that we were able to stand before you all in September and say that the pricing was going to be accretive. Certainly, Eric's service product helps support that when the team is going in and having those conversations. But this is consistent with what we were seeing and what we were expecting to see back in September, and we just believe there's more of that coming forward. So that's where you're seeing that confidence.

Yes. So you look at it, as Jennifer mentioned last year, we were price-accretive. We're starting off price accretive today. And it's really the mindset that we have as a commercial team. Eric and his team is providing us with a strong service product. We also have quite a few investments that we're making into the network. That gives us all the ability to really price to the service that we've sold, and we're pretty dogged on that. And so that's what you're seeing. You're seeing the results of that play out.

Next question is from the line of Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

Kenny, I know everything is volatile right now, but obviously, we have pretty sizable tariffs on Chinese goods here. I mean, I think our Treasury Secretary is calling a de facto embargo on trade with China. And we can see that there are going to be some higher blank sailings into like L.A. Long Beach, which has been a pretty big source of volume for you guys. So I guess maybe a 2-part question, a, have you heard from your international customers or any of your customers about plans for dealing with these very large tariffs? And then maybe just quickly for Eric, like how would you deal with potentially a big air pocket in demand on certain parts of your network, even if you're seeing growth domestically?

Yes, Brandon, thanks for the question. So first of all, it starts with staying close to the customers. I've been talking to customers this week, and staying close with Eric. And it's all about the agility. We've shown and proved that in the quarter, we were able to handle that business. You're asking a specific question about China. And yes, we do see, and Jim used the word normal patterns. We expect, as we move throughout the quarter to see a little bit more softness and then we have some tougher comps. The best thing we can do during that time is just have all the products that we have with the ramps, the matchback and the service product and stay close to our customers because we've been seeing these supply chain patterns change at the drop of a hat.

And Brandon, related to how we continue to maintain volume variable plus, for us, we're very prompt to being able to do that. When we think about what are we physically doing, what does it look like on the railroad, it's really your 5 critical resources with emphasis mostly on 3 of them. You adjust the amount of locomotives you have, the amount of cars you have and you adjust the amount of crews that you have. Now you do that inside of our transportation plan, which over the last year, we've got a big plus that we've added to that with a tool that we have that's called adaptive planning. That's taken our playbooks and made us even faster at how we're able to make those decisions. What used to take multiple days or weeks, now we can do in a matter of hours or even up to maybe at most a couple of days. So we have the ability to adjust. You've seen us demonstrate that many times over our history, and that's exactly what we'll do.

Our next question is from the line of Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

So if I take a step back and we have the best pricing in 10 years and volumes up 7% and headcount is down 3. I would have thought it could have been like the perfect storm of like record kind of margin improvement, when you just think about those 3 things and margins are flat. Is this just mix in fuel? And so what does this look like going forward? Maybe if the volume slows, but maybe now the mix turns positive, hopefully, the fuel headwind isn't the same magnitude. Should we start to see a lot more margin improvement just given this price as we get through maybe some of this mix headwind?

It's an interesting way to look at it is if we have -- you're saying if we have less revenue, but the mix is better, we end up with better margins. I look at it a little bit different. Yes, that's a win, but I'd rather have more revenue and drive to make sure that the margin is in the right place. We like all the business that we have. And the reason we are Union Pacific is because of the top 100 customers that we have that we move everything that people use every day in either the manufacturing at the end. So Scott, yes, you could say that if intermodal came down because of what's happening at the West Coast or the imports, that would help us margin-wise. But for me, I'd rather -- remember, we don't give OR specifics on purpose. If somebody would tell me that I could be a 55 operating ratio railroad and our revenue went down by X, I'd rather be a 57% operating ratio railroad with our revenue going up by X. So that's the way I look at it. Jennifer, anything else you want to add?

Yes. I just want -- on the mix part, I mean, obviously, mix -- price together and mix with record price together being down 250 basis points, that gives you an indication of the impact of mix to the quarter, and we also gave you what the impact was to the OR and EPS from fuel. So to your point, as we look ahead, mix should moderate. I don't know when it will turn positive, but probably should turn positive as we move into the back half of the year. We'll see how second quarter plays out. As Jim talked earlier, there's just a lot of wildcards on how that's going to play, but should improve nevertheless. You look at fuel, we see that as something that moderates through the year as well. And when we get to the end of the year, if fuel prices stay kind of where they're at, I think you look back and you say fuel was kind of a nonevent for us overall for the year. So I think you're looking at it right. The only thing I would say is, don't underestimate the mix impact to our margins in the first quarter.

The next question is from the line of Ken Hoexter with Bank of America.

So Jen, maybe just taking that to another step, and I know you don't give specific guidance, but if I think about maybe just historical averages, right? So first quarter to second quarter, maybe you could talk about what kind of level improvement you've historically seen. I think it's been about 100 basis points. So I just want to understand just to get to the EPS target that you're talking about, do we have to see outsized seasonal performance given, I don't know, whether it's the leap day and fuel impact you were talking about? Maybe I'll start with that.

Well, Ken, I love the question. You know that you asked me because you thought, for sure, Jennifer would say I don't give any guidance. But yes, we're historically -- we're going to historically see that improvement. At this point, we see it already with 3 weeks in the books that we look like we'll have that historical change that happens normally first quarter to second quarter and maybe even a little bit better because of how well we're operating. But still too early in the quarter to say anything specific about what it looks like. Jennifer?

Yes. No, I mean, the first quarter is where you typically have your worst margins for the year, then it typically improves second and third quarter because you've got kind of your beginning of the year cost out of the way, you see your volume improve and you're away from the winter weather. And so you've got that kind of mud behind you, if you will, in the first quarter that helps propel you in the second and third quarter as you see volume growth. Obviously, as we're talking today, volume is going to be the wildcard, but we're not going to use that as an excuse to not improve. In fact, we believe we will improve. And that's the task that the team has, and we're absolutely committed to it.

Wonderful. And Jim, you mentioned, last night was at the Oilers vs Canadiens, so are you really an Ottawa fan?

Well, listen, I'm an Edmonton Oilers fan, that was ugly. My dad is a Montréal Canadiens fan. He didn't like that. So there wasn't a lot of positive. I went to bed last night after midnight going, what the heck is this, okay? Now I normally go to bed at midnight anyways. And I had to laugh. I know this is a serious call, not a call about the NHL or NBA, but I think Kenny goes to bed at 9:00 and Eric goes at 8:30. So when I told them I was staying up till midnight to watch the game like I normally do, I think that just threw them right off. Jennifer said that's Vena. He only needs 5 hours sleep, so he's good. But yes, rough day, Ken. Rough day.

Our next question is from the line of Brian Ossenbeck with JPMorgan.

I'll get us back on track with something much more boring in this question. But I don't know if you appreciate, let me ask it first. But -- so maybe for Kenny, just the -- I know there's a lot of volatility with policies, but it does seem like there will be something on the Section 301 related to China ship loading and now they're talking about removing the harbor maintenance tax benefit from the Canadian ports. So I wanted to see what your initial thoughts are on that since we've been through 2 iterations of that with the U.S. TR. And then the past trade war, we saw a big impact in general for the U.S. export grain, particularly soybeans. So I wanted to see if that's something that we should also be considering here.

Yes. Thanks for that, Brian. So first of all, we've talked with quite a few customers. And I'll tell you that they need a little bit more clarity and certainty. Candidly, we've seen the tariffs come on. We've seen them come off. We need a little bit more certainty. They need a little bit more certainty before they are going to commit to making any significant changes in ports or traffic flows. I'd be remiss to say our commercial team is pretty intense or having pretty intense conversations about coming to the U.S., especially with our network that we have, especially with the service. So that's a focus for us. But bottom line, we got to make sure that these stick. The second part of your question on the grain piece. When you look back the first time Trump was in, we did see some of the traffic flows change, and we're seeing that as a positive today. Eric and the team have really done a great job of moving grain to areas like the Gulf and areas like Mexico. So yes, the traffic flows may change, but we still are able to have an agile network. The last part of that is just what I'll call fundamental growth in terms of the fuel side, so the biofuels, the renewable fuels. We still see that as a positive. We've been very aggressive, hyper aggressive about landing new customers, landing new origins, landing new destinations. We still think that, that's a good emerging market that's going to be in place.

Next question is from the line of Jonathan Chappell with Evercore ISI.

Eric, a question for you. Covered it a little bit, but I don't think we know exactly what the outcome is going to be, but I think with the blank sailings and some of the other comments around exports leaving China and what's going to come to the West Coast, Kenny already mentioned International Intermodal probably has some challenges in the back half of the year, but domestic seems to be set up pretty well. So how do you kind of manage resources for that volatility kind of within the Intermodal segment? Do you keep a level of resiliency in case things are kind of short-lived and kind of just focus on service and making sure you're prepared for the upturn? Or do you have to become a little bit more, I guess, drastic with some of the resource decisions that you make in the short term?

That's a great question, Jonathan, and a timely one. Let's make sure we're really clear about something. We always keep our buffer of resources, right? We always maintain the railcars, the locomotives and the crews that we need to operate to deliver the service product that we sold to our customers. Now let's talk a little bit more lower in the weeds about how we do that on the railroad. And we can just start with really practical things, but they're really important things. So with the increase in International Intermodal, we've obviously made changes to our transportation plan. Now you might think that that's just, well, we just add trains to the system. That's not what we do. We first look at how do we fill any latent capacity we have on existing trains. Then we look to say, how do we combo certain trains to be able to generate more capacity. And as a last resort, we add new symbols, that being new trains that we run. So when you're thinking about any type of reduction that may occur, you just work that in reverse, right? You first look at were there any trains that we added to the entire system that the volume just doesn't support running anymore. Then from there, you look and say, can I still combo with other trains so that we can continue to be productive and be volume variable plus. That's -- it's literally how we do it every single month when we look through our transportation plan and make adjustments to it. It's sounding like I'm oversimplifying. It's a complex thing, and that's why we use so much technology to inform our decision-making so that we can still deliver our service product, but do it in the most efficient manner.

The next question is from the line of Stephanie Moore with Jefferies.

This is Joe Hafling on for Stephanie. Eric, thanks for walking through that. That was very helpful, and I think helped answer a lot of those questions. I guess I maybe wanted to talk about something a little bit different under the surface, all the productivity initiatives you guys have been embarking on. As we think about 2025, what major projects do you guys have kind of under your barrel that you're working on that we should be looking forward to? And maybe just an obligatory how we should think about headcount throughout the year?

Sure. So taking on your productivity question first. As we think about projects, right, you kind of naturally want to trend towards talking about technology. Let's never forget, though, the biggest driver of our productivity is the fundamentals and how we operate this railroad day in and day out. You saw that in the first quarter, right, 7% volume handled, that being 7% higher volume handled and our operating expenses were actually down 2%, excluding fuel. You saw that in the record train length, record workforce productivity, et cetera. So you always want to stay most focused on your fundamentals. Now from a project/initiative place, now you really are getting into the technology. That's technology, as Jennifer mentioned, on the fuel conservation side with energy management system. It's how we think about Mobile NX inside of our terminals as we work to automate portions of the terminals. It's even the work that our engineering team is doing on how do you automate the distribution of materials. In total, we have dozens and dozens of these initiatives in different phases. So we're in a great position to continue to build on that. Now as far as the hiring side, as we've discussed before, every single month, we go through our hiring plan. And when we do that, we're looking to consider all of the different variables that we have to take into account, right? So those are things like attrition. Then to your question, the positive impact we get from productivity, changes in markets and the list goes on and on. We've already made adjustments this year to our hiring plan based on the changes in different markets, and we'll continue to do that. Joe, we're committed to make sure that as we look at our asset base, we continue to become -- continue to be volume variable plus.

Eric, the only thing I could add is -- and I think you did a great job of describing it. You make it sound easy, but it's very complex. But at the end of the day, the way we look at it and the nice part about where we are right now is, with us implementing NetControl, a new dispatch system that allows us to dispatch at the highest level and react to things as they're moving on. Our new NetControl will allow us to actually react in a real fast manner. It's all about touch points for the rail cars. If we can touch the railcars less to get them from origin to destination, we're not a linear railroad. We're very complex. When you come out of the L.A. Basin, we have intermodal containers, both domestic and international going to -- across this network of ours plus going east into the eastern part with our partners, east of the Mississippi. So the way we look at it is how can we use the technology that we've developed and the fundamental technology to be able to make decisions so we remove touch points. If we can remove touch points then we end up with a more efficient railroad and quicker and react to whatever is thrown at us. The nice part is we're hiring. We still have to hire, and Eric and the team did a great job when he talked about the headcount that we have in operations versus with the business that was increased, we were actually down. And we want to continue to be able to be as neutral as we can. And the first action we take always is we stop hiring or we slow down hiring if we need to, if we see there's something changing. And we take full realization that when we make a decision to hire, this is not a 1 day they show up and they're on the railroad as a conductor or as an engineering person or as a mechanical person or whatever. Listen, at headquarters, if we miss somebody 1 day, it's not that big of a deal. Somebody else will work an extra hour, and we'll fill that in. But when it comes out in the field, you need those locomotive engineers, conductors. So we make sure that we're very careful. But because we were hiring, we adjust that, and we'll adjust that down if we see things happen over the next few weeks on what we're going to do. But we're hiring now for 3 months down the road, 3, 4 months down the road. So we've already started to slow that down just because we've become more efficient, and then we'll take a look at it as we go ahead. Sorry for the long answer, but I love operations, so I have to get in the middle of that. Sorry, Eric.

Our next question is from the line of Jordan Alliger with Goldman Sachs.

This is Andrzej on for Jordan. My question is somewhat conceptual trying to frame the downside risk to freight markets that might be left out there in the respect that most of transportation has already been in a freight recession for 3 years now. How much additional absolute downside risk is there left to volumes or yields if in a worst case, we fall into a consumer-led GDP recession. Would a downturn be less pronounced in freight versus historical GDP slowdowns, given the already extended slowdown in freight that occurred post-COVID? Or would that be fair to say for some of your nonconsumer-facing businesses?

Yes. So I'll take a stab at that one. I mean, I do think you're point -- making some good points in terms of -- particularly when you think about the truck competitive part of our business, which we've been all talking about the fact that it's been in a down mode, maybe recessionary mode, the last couple of years, and we've just been bouncing along the bottom there. Over that time, we've made tremendous strides to improve our service. We've filled out our stable of IMC partners. And so we do think we're extremely well positioned to be able to capture business that's out there. And when I think about the UP franchise, one of the best things about our franchise is the diversity. And so with that broad diversity, that broad scope, our reach across a number of markets, we have historically felt that, that insulates us a little bit from what happens in one market versus the other. And you've seen that. I mean, you've got things last year, our volumes were up 3% when our coal was down 20%. Now this year, we have coal up and you've got other markets that are down. So we'll deal with whatever the markets give us, whether it's a softer landing maybe for us just because of what's happened in the transportation space, the truck space the last few years or not. I think that still remains to be seen. I think the good news is we're agile, we're ready and we'll respond. And with the work that Kenny and team have been doing in business development, the service product that Eric's team is providing them, I think we'll capture our share and more and we'll perform very well.

The next question is from the line of Daniel Imbro with Stephens.

Kenny, I want to follow up on the intermodal maybe volume and kind of revenue per carload outlook. I think you mentioned there's some international headwinds coming with the potential for more domestic strength from truckload conversions. I guess how did those domestic conversions trend through the first quarter as the truck market began to soften? And then related to that, I guess, with the favorable mix of more domestic versus international, but maybe a softer truck pricing environment, how are you expecting to see intermodal revenue per carload through the back half of the year just as we weigh those puts and takes?

Yes. So I'll just start off by just updating you on where we are through bid season and call it a little bit more than 1/3 going through the bid season. We're encouraged on where we are from a bid perspective. We're encouraged by the wins that are out there. Again, you hear me talk about the channels, the stable of private asset customers along with our own private box. We've seen wins in those sections. The over-the-road section -- part of our business is the one that we're most focused on. A strong service product will help you with that. We talked about 6,000 Lowe's with Uber that we won. That's all over the road. So that's how we're approaching that. From a price perspective, we have mechanisms in place to go out there and price with all of our customers. Again, with our rail asset, we're also able to compete in that marketplace. We've been in a lull, as Jennifer mentioned on our previous question for a while. That has allowed us to go out there and win and compete business during a challenging environment. As the market or if the market does improve, we expect to move in a more positive direction on the revenue per car side.

Yes. And the only thing I'll add there is if you think about, which we talk about mix within mix. So within Intermodal, there are different mixes. We talked back in September that International Intermodal is our lowest average revenue per car. And so if you see less International Intermodal, more domestic, that can be positive within that mix on mix space. So another thing to take into consideration.

The next question is from the line of Ari Rosa with Citigroup.

So I just wanted to ask a clarifying question. When you talk about EPS growth consistent with attaining the 3-year CAGR on EPS, just help me understand, that is not specifically a target for 2025 to be up high single digits to low double digits? Just wanted to clarify that point. And then we've seen some strength in coal in the second quarter to date. Just wanted to help understand what's underlying that strength and the extent to which you think it's sustainable?

I wish I could come here and tell you that what we see is a high single digit, low double digit for sure this year. There's just too many variables that we can't control going on right now. But we're very comfortable with the way the railroad is operating and that we continue, we're standing by our guidance. That's the way I look at it.

Just on the natural gas is really the driver there when you look at our coal business. But the other part of that is being able to capture that business. And Eric and the team have done a great job of being agile, getting the resources in place. We actually saw double-digit strength inside the quarter. So sequentially from February to March, we were able to capture that business. Year-over-year, you're talking sets that were added over 25%. So a great job there. I'm excited because you look at the natural gas part of it, but you also look at the business win that we have, and we've added those sets in, and we're seeing those up and running. Natural gas is volatile. We've seen it move around in the month, but the ability to be agile is what we look at.

The next question is from the line of David Vernon with Bernstein.

[indiscernible] here. I wanted to ask maybe, Kenny or Jennifer, when we're talking about the best pricing we've had in about 10 years, can you help us sort of understand kind of how much it has improved kind of either sequentially or relative to where we were sort of last year? What specifically has changed to drive it? Are we starting to see the benefits of a better service product? Like or is this just you guys are being more effective on capturing price in coal, for example? And then what are you thinking about the ability to sustain that best level of pricing in 10 years as we go through the rest of this year?

I'll start and if you want to jump in, Jennifer. So -- and I'm going to be a broken record here, but look, when you have a strong service product for what you sold to the customers, you can lead with that. When you have a strong service product plus the investments that you have, you can lead with that. We sit down with our customers, share the service performance index with them, and we know what acceptable levels of pricing are. And so we lead with that. Now I'll tell you, I think there was a question about -- I think it was about mindset or will it sustain? We will always have a mindset to go out there and price to the service that's sold. That won't change. The team is crystal clear on that. So there you have it.

Yes. Kenny, I really don't know that I can add to that. But when you walk through the drivers of our price, you hit on all of them. The only part of the market right now that's not supportive to our pricing is that truck piece, which we've been talking about. So if we can get a little bit of help from that, that could be further good news for us.

But let me -- if you just give me a second here, and I appreciate it. At the end of the day, what we've also done is, we've invested in being able to give more markets for our customers, whether it's what we did at the east end of the L.A. Basin at Colton with the new facility there, what we've done in Phoenix, what we're doing in Kansas City, but not just in Minneapolis, I could keep on going on that side of the business. But we've invested with our customers in the Industrial base and in the Bulk base. We've opened up new facilities. So pricing comes by being able to provide baseline service at a high level and consistent, not just customers and no one likes it if it's 1 week or a month, it has to be consistent. And I think we've been able to show that for the last few quarters that we're very consistent, and we have a good handle of how to operate this railroad. We went through -- we didn't even talk about winter. Some people like to talk about winter. We had winter. We had storms, we had floods. But at the end of the day, the resiliency in the way we operate the railroad and the buffer is real important to us. And the last thing is on the carload business, which is real important to us, especially when it comes to pricing and margin in the markets that they serve is we've expanded our fluidity. We spent a lot of money in that Houston area to be able to improve our hump yard, and we just about doubled the capacity of the place that removes touch points, and that allows you to give better service and allows you to open more markets for our customers. So it's a complicated decision-making in what we've done. So just to add on to what was already said by Kenny and Jennifer, that's the way we look at it.

All right. And then maybe if I could just tag one more on here. Have you guys seen any sort of change in cross-border Mexico volumes, either Laredo or Eagle Pass as we've been dealing with some of these -- the tariff imposition? I'm just wondering if there's been any noticeable sort of shift in that North-South volume.

Why don't you talk about what we've seen in the last sort of year or so and what we've seen sort of a balance against our competitor and then what we've seen more recently?

Yes. So if you look at it, and it does start with the fundamentals. It does start with the fact that we've got 7-day a week service that we've got the best route. We've got shorter miles. We've got a faster route. But if you look at Mexico, when we talk to our customers, and we've been there over 30 years, when we talk to our customers, yes, because I've just mentioned all those attributes, we know we can win and compete. But we're also selling the entire network. So it's not just one part of Texas or one lane that we're going in, we're moving and utilizing the entire network. You look at the last quarter, yes, there were stops and starts, especially when you look at our Automotive segment, you heard me say in my words, we really sat closely with our customers and focus on the fundamentals, which for us in Mexico is the service product, the interchange, making sure we have enough equipment. And where we see ourselves today, we certainly don't try to manage our business to a market share, but we feel good about where we are, and we know we're up a few points as we look at our market share so far this year.

The next question is from the line of Richa Harnain with Deutsche Bank.

So your execution this quarter was strong, all things considered. But clearly, just from the tone of some of these questions, there is a lot of fear out there. And a lot of that's related to your exposure. So maybe you can help those by sizing up your exposures a little bit. I was hoping. Like, for instance, with grain exports, I appreciate, Kenny, you saying that it is very strong given Mexico and speaking to the agility of your network. But can you tell us how much of that business is Mexico exports versus China? And just on International Intermodal, you said that, that's about 40% of total premium for 2024. Can you tell us how much is West Coast or China-oriented?

Yes. So we talked about the grain. I certainly, unfortunately, won't be able to give you any specifics and break out our grain network. What I'll tell you, though, is that I mentioned the strength in grain. We've been growing there. I mentioned the rail and physical infrastructure that we have on the origin side to grow that market. We're focused on expanding the pie even if it means, and that's why I wanted to emphasize that we are moving into different markets like the Gulf and in the Mexico. There was a question on International Intermodal, I think, where you wanted me to break out those numbers, and I'll stay away from doing that and just let you know that a strong service product, along with the new products that we have, we inserted a new product. Jim talked about it in the twin cities. And last year, we were able to have -- get a good win that will still continue into this year. We're seeing a little bit more growth into the new market, new ramp that we have on our -- in Arizona and the Phoenix area, and we've inserted new products going from the Gulf to other parts of our network. So we're going to be pretty aggressive about building out that network and not being dependent on one area.

Our next question is from the line of Jeff Kauffman with Vertical Research Partners.

Jim, I like your opening comment about how if you just look from 10,000 feet, revenues were flat, margins were flat, outlook is the same. No changes. The reality was anything but. I'm just kind of curious, if we look at your forward outlook today for whether it's groups or pricing as you were talking about core pricing, things like that, what's different today than it was, say, 3 months ago when you gave us guidance that's kind of been a legitimate surprise?

Well, the biggest surprise is the whole discussion of import, exports, tariffs and the effect on the business. And like I said, to start off with our biggest worry in what we look at, and it's not a worry. It's just I don't worry, okay? So that was a mistake by me. I don't worry. You have to react and be able to run the business and operate it in a smart manner is what the consumer is going to do. So far, we haven't seen a huge impact. And if anything, we really haven't seen it. Our carloads are up across the board in most places still from where we were last year. But that's the thing that we have to keep an eye on, and it's a daily exercise. Every day, we look at what's happening to the U.S. consumer and the market because that's who the final customer is for us.

If I take out the intermodal uncertainty part of it or the international trade certainty and you just look more at the Bulk or Industrial groups, what was the legitimate surprise there, positive or negative?

Well, I think -- I don't like to think about it as a surprise. The things that we can -- not been a surprise. We've done a great job this quarter. I give Eric and the entire team a pat in the back. They've done a great job. Jennifer has done a great job to set us up to handle financially anything that we need. You can see where our rating is 2.8x debt to EBITDA. You can see where our cash is. We're in a great position there. And Kenny and team have done a great job of pricing for the value of what we provide. The things that we can't control are the things that we have to look at very carefully. And just at this point, I think at the end of the day, we come to the right place as a country, but I think there's going to be some noise, and we'll react to whatever noise is thrown at us.

Our next question comes from the line of Oliver Holmes with Redburn Atlantic.

Just a quick one. Is there a scenario, perhaps maybe you're already seeing it, where Asia ex China and Mexico pick up share if the trade war with China continues, in essence, reducing the impact of Chinese tariffs? And maybe just a follow-up on that. Is this something you saw during 2018, '19 when tariffs were levied on China?

Yes. Thanks for that question. I think, Kenny, the question he's asking is, are you seeing more in terms of shifts away from China to Vietnam, Korea?

Yes. Okay. Good. So there's some good public data out there. And you can see, Oliver, over the last few quarters, a little bit of a change. We look at the [ Aena ] data, and you can see a little bit of a change from China going into the Southeast Asia piece. It's held strong, those volumes have held strong. We can see them coming up to us. We like the fact that there is diversity in that, and we're going to continue to take advantage of it.

Tariffs are moving target, though, and pressures of what's happening in the marketplace right now and what's happening to the trade will have an effect. It just takes a while for some of those things to settle down.

The next question is from the line of Jason Seidl with TD Cowen.

And Jim, I feel your pain on being down to nothing here. Jennifer, I think the question goes to you. You guys did a pretty good job of managing sort of salaries, wages and benefits per employee in 1Q. Wondering how we should think about that line item going forward? And then just to clarify, I believe you talked about that $46 million gain in last year's 2Q. Was that in other income?

Okay. So for the first part of your question, we laid out in January that we expected for the full year our comp per employee cost per employee to be up 4%, you're right, did a great job in the first quarter, only up 2%. At this point, we would stick with the 4% just because as we're looking ahead, we know that July 1 is another wage increase. We're obviously still negotiating with our unions. But as you know, we accrue regardless of if we started paying those wage increases or not. And then we also have -- we think this will be towards the back part of the year, but we also are working towards an agreement with our SMART-TD, our conductors union, in terms of work rest for them. So that's why we're holding with that 4% in terms of the cost per employee in terms of the outlook on a full year basis. In terms of your other question, that was in the other expense line in terms of the $46 million where that flowed through as a good guy last year.

Our final question is from the line of Jairam Nathan with Daiwa.

Just on -- we talked a lot about what you can do on the cost side and stuff, but I just wanted to understand on the balance sheet in terms of share repurchases. If things get long drawn or you see a bigger and bigger impact, how should we think of your capital return plan between share repurchase or conserving cash?

Yes. So thanks for that question. So off to a really strong start here in 2025. Our guide for the year in terms of share repurchases was $4 billion to $4.5 billion. At this point, I think we're at a little over $1.7 billion in terms of what we've returned so far, $1.5 billion through the accelerated share repurchase program and another $200 million in open market purchases. So in 1 quarter, almost halfway there, I'd say we feel very good about that range. Obviously, we'll watch it. If the situation changes, we can scale back. That is the flexible lever. We've got $1.4 billion on the balance sheet today. So again, we're reiterating the guide to the $4 billion to $4.5 billion, and that's our view for the full year and feel confident in that. But if the world changes dramatically for us, we can flex that.

This concludes the question-and-answer session. I'll now turn the call back over to Mr. Vena for closing comments.

Well, listen, I think the questions were spot on. There were questions that we ask ourselves every day. I think we've shown, as Union Pacific, what we can do and how we can react. And I think that's real important. At the end of the day, truly, it would be a boring job, I probably wouldn't be here. If you woke up every morning and everything was perfect. You get -- you see the quality of a company and you see the quality of the management when you see how they react to things. And I think the team did a great job first quarter, very excited with what we have going on fundamentally. And in the long term, I like where Union Pacific is. And so with that, let's sign off. I know we have our Annual General Meeting happening in May, and we'll be talking to our owners then. Thank you very much, everyone, taking the time to join us this morning. Have a good one.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your participation. This does conclude today's teleconference. You may now disconnect your lines at this time, and have a wonderful day.