uniQure N.V. (QURE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
September 29, 2026
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorGood morning, and thank you for standing by. My name is Jenny, and I will be your conference operator today. At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the uniQure Phase I/II AMT-130 Huntington's disease Program Update. [Operator Instructions]. I would now like to turn the conference over to Chiara Russo, Senior Director of Investor Relations.
Chiara Russo
executiveThis morning, Unisenounced additional data on patients treated with our investigational gene therapy. ifezuntirgene inilparvovec or AMT-130 in our ongoing Phase I/II clinical trials in Huntington's disease, taking place in the U.S., EU and the U.K. This update consists of data on clinical endpoints and exploratory biomarker and safety and tolerability. Joining us for this investor event and webcast are Matthew Kapusta, our Chief Executive Officer; Dr. Walid Abi-Saab, our Chief Medical Officer; and to provide a clinician's perspective on the experience of patients with Huntington's disease. Dr. [ Vifor Song ], Professor of Neurology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, UAB, Director of the UAB Huntington's Disease Clinic and a clinical investigator in this trial of AMT-130. Kylie O'Keefe, our Chief Commercial and Strategy Officer, will be joining us for the analyst Q&A at the end of this presentation. The slides included in this morning's webcast have been filed with the SEC and will be available on the Events and Presentations page of uniQure's website shortly after the conclusion of this webcast. Please note that we will be making forward-looking statements during this investor call. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements. They are based on management's beliefs and assumptions and on information available to management only as of the date of this webcast. Our actual results could differ materially from those anticipated in these forward-looking statements for many reasons, including, without limitation, the factors described in uniQure's quarterly report on Form 10-Q, filed on July 29, 2026 and other security filings. Given these risks, we should not place undue reliance on these forward-looking statements, and we assume no obligation to update these statements even if new information becomes available in the future. Now I am pleased to introduce Matthew Kapusta, uniQure's CEO.
Matthew Kapusta
executiveThanks, Chiara, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on today's call. This morning, we announced additional data from our ongoing study of AMT-130 in Huntington's disease. These results continue to provide evidence of long-term meaningful slowing of disease progression and support the primary analysis underpinning the license applications we submitted to the FDA and MHRA. . To date, no other program in Huntington's disease has demonstrated long-term disease modification after a single administration. AMT-130 does. As pioneers in this space, we are blazing a new trail in [ HD ], learning and deepening our understanding with every data point we generate. And at 48 months, we continue to see meaningful treatment effects. Huntington's disease is relentless and progressive there is nothing available today that changes its course. Our aim now is to bring forward the first disease-modifying treatment for people living with Huntington. The data we announced this morning include analyses at two time points. The first is a 48-month analysis based on the first 12 high-dose patients that have reached this time point. The second is a 36-month analysis reflecting all 15 patients, including 3 additional patients who have reached that time point since last year's update. Starting with the 48-month data, we continue to see treatment benefit across both cUHDRS and total functional capacity or TFC, with particularly significant effect on TFC demonstrating a 61% slowing of disease progression and stable treatment benefit at 48 months. TFC is the most direct measure we have of what patients and families care about. It captures whether someone can hold a job, manage their own finances and perform the daily [ tasks ] that allow them to live independently. It is also the agreed upon primary endpoint of our confirmatory study. While the primary [ cUHDRS ] analysis did not reach statistical significance in 48 months, we believe the trends are positive and meaningful for [ HD ] patients. [ HD ] patient lives are defined by moments in a year of meaningful moments is something no patient should have to give up. There is also an important limitation in the new updated external control. 53% of the external control data is missing at 48 months. While [ nice ] is inherent to long-term natural history data set, the patients who left the control were declining markedly faster than those who remained. So over time, the comparator increasingly reflected a healthier population than at baseline. This bias cuts against AMT-130, not for it. It understates treatment benefit and make statistical comparisons at the 40-month time point more difficult. As we advance as leaders in [ HD ], we will continue our collaboration with key stakeholders to assess the most meaningful way to evaluate long-term treatment benefit. When comparing to cUHDRS at 48 months across doses, we do see clear dose dependency, with the high dose showing a 1 point favorable effect on cUHDRS compared to the low dose. Importantly, this is an internal comparison that does not depend on the control and is what you would expect to see if there was a genuine treatment effect. Turning to the updated 36-month data. This is an important from a regulatory perspective as is consistent with the BLA primary analysis in our planned confirmatory study. Including the 3 additional patients, the 36-month data demonstrated an even stronger treatment effect. We now see 80% slowing of disease progression on cUHDRS, 67% slowing on TFC and favorable trends across all other clinical subdomains. As a reminder, the 3 additional patients at 36 months are not included in the 48-month analysis. In summary, we strongly believe AMT-130 has the potential to deliver meaningful long-term benefit to people living with Huntington, and we will continue to work tirelessly to deliver this treatment option to them. Patients and loved ones have waited long enough for a therapy that changes what this disease does to them. We firmly believe AMT-130 is that treatment. As we move forward, we remain laser focused in the near term on three areas: first, continuing to degree with the FDA and MHRA as their reviews advance; second, timely execution of our confirmatory study targeting initiation of patient screening before the end of this year; and third, advancing our commercial preparations so that we are ready to deliver this therapy if and when approved. With that, let me hand it over to Walid to walk you through the data in more detail. Walid?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveThank you, [ Mac ]. Good morning, everyone. Before I go over to the updated analysis, let me set the stage by reviewing the 36-month analysis from last year. This is the study design and statistical analysis plan supporting our recent regulatory submissions to the FDA and MHRA. Our primary endpoint is the compounded unified Huntington's disease rating scale or cUHDRS. We compare a change from baseline at 36 months against an external naturality cohort enrolled ACA using a [ property ] score methodology. At the time of [ last ] years analysis, which we presented to you in September 2025. 12 patients on the high dose has reached 36 months of follow-up as of the data cutoff of June 30, 2025. The main takeaway from this analysis was that AMT-130 high dose showed a statistically significant slowing of disease progression at 36 months. 75% slowing on [ cUHDRS ] and 60% slowing on total functional capacity or TFC. I draw your attention to the decline of the matched naturalist [ recover ] after 3 years. This corresponded to an average decline of 0.5 point per year on [ cUHDRS ] and 0.3 points per year on TFC. I will come back to these numbers later in my presentation. Today, we're updating you with the results of the analysis based on the data from the June 30, 2026 study data cutoff. 12 patients have now reached 48 months on the high dose and 12 patients have reached 40 months on the low dose. In addition, 3 more patients have reached 36 months on the high dose, making the 36-month time point fully representative of all enrolled patients at the high dose factoring in the 2 patients who dropped out at 12 and 15 months. There is an important comparator update that I would like to explain to assist in understanding the interpretation of both the 36 months and the 48 months data. The 48-month protocol and statistical analysis plan, which we submitted earlier this year, respecify the lowest current enrolled [ HD ] data set released in September 2025, We'll refer to this as [ enroll B ] throughout this presentation. Last year's 36-month analysis used the January 2023 release data set, which we'll call [ Andro ]. And on [ HDV ] contains everything [ in a roll HCA ] plus more than 2.5 years of additional follow-up on those same participants and 6,000 additional ones. It is the largest and most contemporaneous longitudinal natural history database available. It also overlaps in time with recruitment and follow-up of high-dose Cohort 2 in our Phase I/II studies. The [ Siphraneous ] controls are an FDA preference, and that was a significant factor in the choice. Our primary analysis follows the same plan as a 36-month analysis in 2025 that supported the BLA public. The primary endpoint compares the change from baseline in [ CVS ] at 28 months in the high dose against a propensity score mass control group from enrolled HCB. TFC is a key secondary endpoint. This slide shows the high dose in orange and the low dose in purple across all patients. The panel on the left shows all available data. The panel on the right show data from the 12 patients at the high dose and the 12 patients at the low dose for whom we have results up to 48 months. Since last year's update, these 24 patients accrued data from month 36 to month 48. There are several key observations worth noting on this slide. First, there is a softening of approximately 0.5 point between month 36 and month 48 on the high dose. Two components of the HRS drive this. [ SDMT ], which declined somewhat after month 36, perhaps a regression to the mean following relative stability between month 34 and 36; and TMS, which was noisy, with a few patients showing very large swings between month 36 and month 42. Second, we see those defendants across 4 years, adjusting a [ chain ] effect. This observation matters because it does not rely on a mass external control. The high dose, which is 10x higher than the low dose shows evidence suggestive of disease slowing when compared to the low dose. Third is, after 4 years, the low dose, which can be considered as some placebo, meaning it's expected to produce a lower therapeutic effect and could serve as an internal reference; shows a decline of approximately 2 points of cUHDRS. That is in line with the 0.5 point decline per year in the [ Maccenecontrol ] in the 2- and 3-year analysis reported over the last 2 years Okay. The results at 48 months are still missing the 3 patients who have not yet reached the 48-month mark in the study and at month 36 showed a slower rate of decline than the 12 patients who reached that time point a year earlier. As noted, our primary analysis uses enroll [ HDD ]. On the left panel, that analysis shows a 44% slowing of disease progression on cUHDRS with AMT-130 high dose compared to the match controls, not statistically significant at [ P 0.144 ]. It is noteworthy that the decline of the match controls at month 48 is 1.6 points which is only slightly more than the 1.5 points at month 36 that we reported last year using the matched control from enrolled [ HTA ]. I will address this topic later in my presentation. On the right panel, we show the results with TFC. TFC is a key functional endpoint. It is the most direct measure available of what patients and families care about. It captures whether someone can hold a job, manage their own finances and live independently. TFC is also favored by regulators and the primary endpoint for our confirmatory study. In this primary analysis, TFC shows 61% slowing compared to the [ Matrix ] under control with a nominal p-value of 0.008. Similar to cUHDRS, the decline in the match controls from enrolled [ HDB ] is lower at 0.94 points at 48 months on TFC compared to 0.88 points at 36 months and last year's analysis using enrolled [ HDA ]. These graphs show the time course for both endpoints. Again, I'll point out that the 48-month data do not reflect the complete high-dose data set as the 3 additional patients included in 36-month data has not yet reached this time point. Both cUHDRS and TFC show continued treatment effect through 48 months. These are the results for the other [ cUHDRS ] components. All show favorable trends relative to external controls. The [ true ] test remains strongly positive with significant nominal P values. As mentioned previously, [ GT ] showed some softening between month 36 and 48 and [ Otomoto ] score is relatively noisy. Let us take a closer look at the enrolled [ HDB Mass ] controls. Participants with longer follow-up tend to decline more slowly, which enrich natural history comparators, with slower progressors over time, a known phenomenon in [ naturals ] studies in many different rare diseases. The graph on the left clearly illustrates this point in the cohort of participants [ matin ] 30 highdose. Participants with last data point was at year 1, declined 0.91 points per year on cUHDRS. Those remain 3 years or beyond, declined by 0.41 point per year, less than half the rate. And the effect compiles over time, with each additional year of follow-up selecting for slower progressors. [indiscernible] roll HDB was also greater than enroll [ HTA ] exceeding 50% at year 4, which we believe further accentuate survivor bias in the data set. The graph on the right shows the consequence. Enroll [ HDD ] declined 20% less than enrolled HTA at 48 months. Notably, enrolled HCV begins flattening after year 2 inconsistent with men disease biology, while enrolled HTA continues a linear decline consistent with expectations for [indiscernible] atients. We believe these factors understate disease progression and tester control and therefore, the treatment effect of AMT-130 and that this bias compiles with longer follow-up. Given our observations on Enroll HDB's underestimation of disease progression, we conducted a post hoc analysis using Enroll HDA, the data set used in our regulatory submissions to the FDA and MHRA. On the left, this graph shows 54% slowing at 48 months in cUHDRS, nominally significant with the p-value of 0.041. I draw your attention to the fact that in this analysis, the level of missingness is lower than enrolled HTV as more than half the patients matched at baseline remained in the study at 2 months. In addition, the decline in cUHDRS at month 48 and the control group is 1.94 points, which is closer to 0.5 point per year we have reported in the prior analysis. On the right, we show the results for TFC with a 68% slowing and a nominal p-value of less than 0.001. The data appears to be robust. Patients who received the AMT-130 high dose showed very little decline 4 years after dosing on this measure of real-world functional abilities. For many of these patients, that means preserving a greater degree of independence, the ability to work and to care for 1 cell, which is highly clinically full. This slide shows the time course over the 48 months compared to the match controls from the enrolled HTA and the dashed gray line from the post-hoc analysis. The solid gray line shows the match controls from the primary analysis for reference. Let's turn to the results at 36 months. the time points used for our primary DNA submission and pre-agreed with the FDA for the confirmatory trial. These are the data we shared last year, the original 12 high-dose patients through 36 months shown in the orange dotted line. Adding the 3 additional patients who have since reached 36 months shown in the solid orders line, we see they're progressing more slowly than the original 12. They will be affecting the mean change from baseline for both cUHDRS and TFC. The gray line is the matched natural site control from enrolled HDD as prespecified in the primary analysis. These are results at month 36 from the primary analyses. AMT-130 high dose showed a robust 80% reduction in cUHDRS decline and a 67% reduction in TFC decline with nominal p-values of 0.005 and 0.011 respectively. Now that the analysis includes every patient who received the high dose in the study, we believe these data further strengthened the September 2025 analysis that form the basis of our regulatory submission. Across the other components of the cUHDRS, AMT-130 high dose showed favorable results ranging from 59% slowing on total [ motor ] score to over 120% slowing on the 2 cognitive endpoints as [ DMT and through ], both with nominally significant p-values. Turning to neurofilament light chain or NFL. From months '18 onwards, both doses trend near baseline. At the 48-month cutoff, mean change from baseline in CSF NFL was 4% above baseline on high dose and 8% below baseline on low dose. For context, healthy subjects aged 40 to 60 matching our population typically show a 1% to 3% annual NFL increase. while untreated early manifest HD patients show a 10% to 15% annual increase. Therefore, we believe the baseline NFL levels after 4 years are well below what would be expected as an effective treatment. Let's look at safety next. AMT-130 was generally well tolerated. The most common adverse events related to the administration procedure, all of which resolved. Since September 2025, there have been no new treatment-related serious adverse events in cohort 1 and 2 at either the low or high dose. As previously disclosed, since our September 2025 update, there was 1 treatment-related serious adverse event in Cohort 4, the lower volume cohort. CNS inflammation in on high-dose patient fully resolved with a short course of corticosteroids. There was also 1 suicide in a low-dose patient, approximately 5 years post-treatment, assessed as unrelated to therapy. Unfortunately, people with Huntington's disease experience a 9x higher risk of suicide [indiscernible] population, making it 1 of the [indiscernible] leading causes of death. This table provides the full adverse event data supporting the summary on the prior slide. In summary, AMT-130 continues to demonstrate meaningful slowing of disease progression. With all patients have reached 36 months, we again see a substantial treatment effect refarming the basis of our BLA submission. The 48-month analysis shows continued evidence of meaningful slowing of disease progression as measured by both TFC and cUHDRS. The dose dependence observed between the low -- high dose across 48 months supports evidence of biological activity. We believe survivor bias and missingness and the updated external control likely understates both disease progression in this population and the treatment effect observed with the AMT-130 at 4 years. Overall, AMT-130 continues to be generally well tolerated. To conclude, we believe that there is clear evidence that AMT-130 has the potential to slow disease progression and provide people living with Hunting's disease, the opportunity to maintain a higher quality of life for longer, which is incredibly meaningful to this community who have no approved disease-modifying treatment options. Before I turn over this presentation to Dr. [ Fong ], I want to say that these data will be presented at a future scientific meeting. We continue to make progress towards bringing this potential therapy to patients. We have submitted the BLA to the FDA and expect acceptance in the fourth quarter. We also submitted the MAA to the MHRA, which has since validated the submission. We are committed to Italian execution of the confirmatory study. Preparations are on target. We expect the first patient to be screened before year-end. We'll also be readvancing commercial preparations and look forward to providing more color on loss strategy early next year. With that, let me turn it over to Dr. [ Strong ], who will provide his take on these results. Victor?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeThank you, Walid, and good morning, everyone. I'm Dr. [ Victor Son ], Director of the Huntington's Disease Clinic at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. And I'm pleased to be here today to provide a clinical perspective on this additional data for AMT-130. My comments are based on my own clinical expertise and experience with AMT-130 as a site investigator on this study. Since the [ HT Gene ] was first sequence over 30 years ago, we have been on a quest to find a therapy that can slow the progression of the disease. But today, there is still nothing. There are currently no FDA-approved therapies to slow the progression of Huntington's disease, the biology is one of inevitable progressive decline. With that backdrop, the data from the AMT-130 program remain encouraging to me. On their own, they provide stronger evidence of a clinically meaningful effect over 4 years. a trend that continues to point in the same direction on both cUHDRS and TFC, 4 years after a single administration is a pattern that I want to keep watching closely. But my impression is that the totality of the data point toward a meaningful treatment. I think it would be helpful to underscore at least two factors in my evaluation of the data. First, I think it is worth revisiting and emphasizing that the 3-year point remains the time point that is the grounding for the BLA and confirmatory study for a reason. Three years is long enough to see a measurable difference in disease progression, but short enough to align with an individual patient's research participation window. I certainly welcome uniQure's production of longer-term data to provide additional context but it is not necessarily the case that longer-term data are more indicative of benefits than 3-year data. Second, as a clinician working with patients with this disease, I think of the data in terms of its real-world significance. When I look at an external control that appears to decline more slowly in patients with longer follow-up, that would be contrary to my impression and knowledge of how the disease typically progresses. It is also contrary to how I see my patients progress in their disease. This speaks to why TFC matters clinically. And in my assessment of the data at 36 and 48 months, it isn't just another statistical score. It tracks whether a patient can still hold employment, manage finances, perform tours and care for themselves. In the real world as opposed to statistics patients can either do these things or they cannot. The sustained treatment difference on that measure through 4 years suggests to me that the treatment effect may be translating into real functional capacity for these patients despite a less than conclusive primary analysis. I'm also encouraged that the confirmatory study will be grounded in measure that relies on real-world function as an assessment. A deeper look at the data and an eventual full panel at 48 months may help understand the longitudinal clinical profile a bit better. but it is relatively clear to me that if the performance presented today were reproduced in the wider patient population that would still constitute a meaningful improvement for patients and their families. We will slow this disease before we stop it. And on balance, I believe this data represents a meaningful step toward doing exactly that, and I'm happy to reflect on it with you today. And now I'll pass it back to CEO, Matthew Kapusta, to lead the Q& A.
Matthew Kapusta
executiveThank you very much, Dr. [ Sun ]. With that, operator, we're ready to open the call to Q&A. .
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And your first question comes from the line of Morris Ryder with Guggenheim Securities.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is [ Marion for Debjit ]. So assuming AMT-130 does receive accelerated approval perhaps for both the UniCare team and for Dr. [ Sun ], what do you think will be the impact of this 4-year data on AMT-130 ability to gain market share? And maybe just one quick follow-up, could you just clarify which data at this point has actually been submitted to the FDA and MHRA? Is it just the unequal 12 patients? And is it compared to [ rural ] HD A or B?
Matthew Kapusta
executiveYes. It's Matthew Kapusta. Thanks for the question. Let me take the second question first. So the data that's been provided in the BLA submission is the data that we presented last year. That was the data that was agreed to with the FDA, that could be the primary basis of the BLA submission. And that data incorporates 12 patients at the high dose, and it's compared against Enroll [ HDA], which was the enrolled HD data cut that we presented last year. For the second question, I'll pass it over to Kylie.
Kylie O'Keefe
executiveThank you very much for the question. I think one of the things that's important is we remain highly confident in the ability of AMT-130 to meaningfully slow disease progression, which is a profound importance to [ HD ] patients who currently have no disease-modifying treatments. . As Dr. [ Sung ] said today, we think the 3-year time point is incredibly important because it balances the ability to show meaningful slowing of disease and also balances the natural history components as well as the elements of research participation for patients. So we think this is -- this 4-year data is additional longer data that helps demonstrate that meaningful slowing of disease.
Matthew Kapusta
executiveYes. And I just want to add -- I want to add one thing. I mean, when you step back and you look at 4 years after a single administration, these patients haven't even lost a full point in cUHDRS, they haven't even lost 4 points in total functional capacity. This is clinically meaningful for patients. And I think with the additional follow-up data we believe that this is -- there's a significant unmet need here that needs to be filled. Dr. [ Sung ], do you want to add any comments?
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. I mean my main comments like you were alluding to, Matt, is just that in a setting where we have no approved therapies that can slow the progression of the disease the 48-month data still offers that we are still slowing the clinical progression of the disease. And from the perspective of my patients that are that have been treated and are in the study, they're still holding very stable. So I think that's kind of the lens that I look at at all, is we don't have anything else that can slow the progression, and this is still doing that at 4 years, which is still significant.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Joe Schwartz with Leerink Partners.
Joseph Schwartz
analystThanks very much. It's pretty striking how TFC holds up better than cUHDRS even against the updated control data set, which is plagued by survival by us. Why do you think that is? And then what led to using the updated enrolled [ HD ] cut? Was this an FDA request or your own choice do you think the FDA will rerun the 36-month analysis and -- with the updated data set? And do you think that, that could constitute a major amendment?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveAll right. So this is Walid. I'll take the questions or a bunch of them. So look, TFC is the endpoint that matters most to patients, to clinicians and also to regulators. It measures function. And any decline there actually has immediate consequences to people's quality of life, whether they're able to hold a full-time job or take care of themselves. And that's why it tends to be much more relevant. It's very impressive that after 4 years, as Matt indicated, we -- the 12 patients that reached that time point only does 0.3 points. cUHDRS tends to be a little bit more sensitive. It picks up on some of the cognitive endpoints and the motor scores we've had some noise in the motor score. And the cognitive tests sometimes show variability and performance could change based on what's happening on that given day. Whereas TFC is better -- it gives you a much better sense of what's going on overall with the patient. So I think it reflects more how they're doing in general. And I think that's what we're seeing here. In terms of [ flight ] we use the new cutoff enroll HD, well, [ Enroll HD ] is an ongoing study. CHDI releases data updates as over time, every few years. And they released a data update in September 2025, which was between the last time, we did the analysis on the 3 years. At that time, we used the most updated enrolled [ HD ] data cut. And now it was time for us to evaluate the 4-year data. we did what was the right thing, which is to use the most recent enrolled [ HD ] data cut that provides 2.5 more years of follow-up on the existing patients and 6,000 more participants has more contemporaneity compared to our study, and that's really what regulators usually look for. It's difficult for me to speculate what will FDA do, whether they will rerun the analysis with the new data cut or not, that is something that we will deal with if the FDA assets to run it or if they are in themselves.
Matthew Kapusta
executiveYes. I mean, I will add that we have rerun the 36-month analysis with [ Enroll HDB], and the results continue to be very meaningful. The divergence between enrolled HDA and B, really become more striking at 48 months. They're starting to diverge it 36 months, but it's more modest. And so the impact on that analysis, even if it is rerun, is not incredibly meaningful. .
Unknown Executive
executiveI noticed there was also a question about major amendments. If we add the data, it's really very difficult for us to speculate. If the FDA asked for the data, we definitely will provide it. and it's at their discretion whether they believe this is a major amendment or not.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Paul Matteis with Stifel.
Paul Matteis
analystIn the past, you've commented in RollHD patients at some of the earlier time points like 2 and 3 years performed fairly similarly on these endpoints as compared to some of the other Huntington's disease natural history studies. Is that still the case with Enroll HDB? And is that still kind of the case at 4 years? Sort of, I guess, taking a step back, I mean, I guess the reason why I ask is I think many of us are trying to think about what are some of the sensitivity analyses FDA might do. So one logical one would be to kind of look at other natural history cohorts that are out there and available. So maybe that's one piece. And then really just on that other side of that, like what other sensitivity analysis here do you think might be relevant stress test of the data that the agency could do? And how many of these have you done yourself?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveWell, thanks, Paul. First, on [indiscernible] HD, and I think I mentioned this a little bit in my presentation. We have started sharing external -- comparison to excel control, starting with the 2-year time point, if you recall, at that point, we compare it to track and predict. And at that point, again, it was equivalent to the match controls are declining by 0.5 point on cUHDRS and 0.3 point of TFC. Last year, when we updated on the 3-year analysis, just because over time, there's not enough patients in track and predict to be able to be matched at the 3 years. They suffer from significant level of [indiscernible] -- we switch to nalHD, which is more robust., And again, it showed that at 3 years and actually throughout the year 1, 2 and 3, 0.5 point of cUHDRS and 1/3 of a point on TFC. This is the first time that we see with enrolled HDD. And as we showed in the presentation, there's a break between starting to see a Tier 2, very evident by year 4, where you see a significant break from this linear progression, In the end, averaging about 0.4 points on cUHDRS, which is 20% lower. So we do think that the data overall support the previous analysis., And the other piece that I want to say is that if you look at our internal control itself on the low dose, even if you assume that there's no efficacy whatsoever on that dose, they also declined about 0.5 point on cUHDRS. So I do think that the overall analysis do support the fact that beyond 3 years, enrolled B is really suffering from this survivor buyers and underestimating the decline in the natural history cohort. In terms of sensitivity, we've run a number of sensitivity analyses ounces, more than 10 approximately, which were prespecified and included in the SAP. And across all of those, across the majority of those, I should say, we have better percent slowing of disease progression, a higher level of decline under control, getting closer to that 2.0 that we talked about, And we reached statistical significance and more than half of those. In fact, the primary announcement that we shared with you was the more conservative of the group. So I think that kind of answers your question.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Joseph Thome with TD.
Joseph Thome
analystMaybe just the first one, can you talk a little bit about the consistency of response in the high-dose patients? I think Dr. [ Sam ] mentioned that overall, his patients seem to be relatively stable. So is a decline between year 3 and year 4 driven by a few patients? Or any context around that? And then maybe for Dr. [ Song ], if you could just talk a little bit about if this is approved, maybe what proportion of your patients you think would be good candidates for therapy kind of like within the first year or so of launch?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveThanks, Joe. Yes, the data overall are very consistent. There's little changes from an outlier. Maybe 1 exception on cUHDRS, which is driven by that [ TMS ] that I mentioned. There was some noise in the data, and there was 1 particular individual that probably was pulling the average down significantly compared to last year. We're following this with the site. But overall, if you look across the remaining patients, they're all showing [indiscernible] results and particularly TFC, they're all continuing to progress or not progress actually the case it is between years 3 and year 4. And I'll turn it over to Dr. [ San ] for the second question.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. I think for the first thing, I feel like the TFC is more representative of what I'm seeing in my patients. I really didn't see any drop-off between year 3 and year 4 mine are still holding steady. So I think as Walid said some of this may be statistical noise by 1 patient. And I think TFC kind of is more truly representative there of that stability. As far as if this were to be approved, what percentage of my overall patients do I think would be good candidates? I mean I think in the -- I mean it's complicated because 2 would be -- who I think medically would be good candidates combined with who would necessarily want a brain surgery for it and and who would be able to afford it and those kinds of things. But I mean, I think it's going to be in that -- obviously, this is really better in the early mild stage, so in the kind of 20%, 30% range of my patients, I would consider strongly as a candidate for it, but I think that's still a pretty sizable population overall.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Ellie Merle with Berkeley.
Eliana Merle
analystI guess just given the lower interpretability of the external control data from year 4, how should we think about the meaningfulness of even longer follow-up data at 5 years and beyond? And has the FDA given a stance on how they view the quality of external control data at these longer time points? And also, I guess, is there any way to mitigate statistically the survivor bias in the external control?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveYes. Thanks, Eli. Yes, you bring a very good point. I mean I think there is an optimal point beyond which natural history becomes very difficult to rely on because, again, they lose a lot of patients and you have significant missing this and survivor bias that really underestimates a treatment effect. So we are working with experts to see how best to analyze the data beyond year 3 because in order for us to be able to interpret the results, we need to have a robust methodology. Now statistically, there are ways by which one can do this. However, those are never really foolproof. And you always -- they can attenuate some of that a little bit, but not to the full extent. So we're going to be working with experts in the field to really use what is accepted as a state-of-the-art way of interpreting these kinds of things. and we will look forward to sharing that with you. In terms of the regulators, they did not say anything specific about this topic nor was there a reason for them to do so. So I cannot add anything to that point. Maybe I can remind you that the primary analysis of the 3-year, that's the basis of it. And as was mentioned before, we believe that is sort of the sweet spot, so to speak, between having enough decline in the natural history that we can compare to and show that the drug actually is slowing disease progression, that this is a length that we can -- that the patient can participate in trials and still find an acceptable to be part of trials. And this is the optimal length potentially for a natural history like enroll beyond which it becomes a bit more difficult. That's why in our confirmatory study, 3-year time point is the primary analysis. And in that study, of course, we're comparing to a randomized open-label internal control standard of care.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from Luca Issi with RBC Capital Markets.
Shelby Hill
analystThis is Shelby on for Luca. Maybe for Matt, we've obviously seen that [ Kari McCall ] will be speaking on Monday as part of the cell and gene therapy conference by the Alliance for generative medicine. And we're all eager to hear what he will say more broadly. But what's your take on how he will approach your application specifically? Do you think he'll rely simply on his staff? Or do you think they'll have more of an active role in the ultimate decision, similar to what we saw in the past with Peter Mark for DMD? Overall, just curious if you've met with the guy and your thoughts on his regulatory approach. Any color there? Much appreciated. .
Matthew Kapusta
executiveYes, Shelby, Matt here. Thanks for the question. Honestly, I think those are questions that are probably better suited for Dr. [ Mitel ] directly. It's not appropriate for me to answer questions about how he'll interact with the team or behave on our review. What I will tell you is what I've said now for 1.5 years since some of the organizational changes at the FDA that we are focused on our data. We strongly believe in our data, and we strongly believe that what we've demonstrated in 4 years, quite frankly, is unprecedented and that this data demonstrates that we can significantly slow disease progression. And it really doesn't matter who's leading [ Sber ], who's the Commissioner of the FDA, who's on the review team. We're relying on is the strength of the data and the incredible unmet need here that exists with [ HD ] patients and their families and the lack of options that they have.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Salveen Richter with Goldman Sachs.
Salveen Richter
analystCan you just remind us why there was data missing in the original enroll HD data set? And why it's believed to be higher in the updated data set? And as you think of rerunning your prior analysis here, how do we think about the 36-month data cuts still being [ stat sig ] using the new enrolled HD?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveThanks, Salveen. Look, data missing this is a well-known phenomenon in any longitudinal natural history. This tends to be biasing against us in this case, of course, because it underestimates the degree to which these controls are progressing. When we looked at the [ Enroll HD ] previous data cut, where we're calling [ Enrolled HDA ], which was released in January 2023, and we examined the effect of missingness over time, those effects were modest and not as important as what we've seen now with Enrolled HDB. And as a result, we did not -- we were not concerned about doing the 4-year analysis using an updated data set from that same study. Now seeing it the way it is right now, of course, it's an issue and we need to go back and evaluate what is the best way to analyze the data going forward. Despite that, as you saw and thanks to the results from all the participants, all 17, right, so 15 reached year 3, but the analysis includes also the 2 that dropped out early. All of these data at month 3 with enrolled HDB continue to show 80% slowing on cUHDRS and more than 60% slowing on TFC. I think those are driven mostly by the fact that these patients at that time point, our patients who received anti-130 high dose show remarkable stability. So whether you analyze them with this new data cut of [ roll ] HD, which underestimates the progression at 3 years or the previous data cut, you're having a very robust effect. Now the question is what do we do going forward, and that's a separate question. But I'm very heartened to see those results. And I do think that they indicate that treatment with AMT-130 is effective as slowing disease progression. The exact percent is always at or about around these estimates. But at the end of the day, these people are gaining significantly longer periods of stability, and that's going to translate to to meaningful clinical benefit for these patients.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Yanan Zhu with Wells Fargo Securities.
Yanan Zhu
analystGreat. was wondering, again, on the [ Enrol HDA ] and B cuts, is the missing data at [ ultra ] years, is that a result of more severe patients dropping out of the study? Or is it the result that more patients simply haven't reached a longer time point and therefore, at longer time points, you will naturally have more missing data? Related to that, I was wondering whether Dr. [ Zhang ] can comment, could the shift between the A cut and the B cut be due to changing standard of care and reflecting of that? And lastly, if I may, TFC is the confirmatory endpoint or proposed confirmatory endpoint. Is there any way that it can be given more consideration for the primary endpoint?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveOkay. Thanks for the question. So to answer your question, whether the -- with the new database cut for [indiscernible] whether the participants would not have had enough time to reach 4 years, that is not possible because we select the patients to have the opportunity to finish 4 years. We call it an effective enrollment period because otherwise, we end up with a situation that you mentioned, and we end up inflating this missing this. Now these missing this year, what we don't know exactly why, and we're working with CACI actually to better understand why is there a difference between the missingness with the previous enrolled HD data cut and the new more recent data cut. But what we do know for sure is that those for whom we have data up to 1 year, progressing -- are progressing much faster than those for whom remain in the trial at 4 years and beyond. And it's the difference about twofold between these 2 types. So clearly, those who are having a more severe progression they are dropping off early, and therefore, they're biasing this. I'll jump to the TFC bit, and then I'll give the floor to Dr. [ Sun ]. The primary analysis that we agreed to support the data submission was cUHDRS. But that is an intermediate clinical endpoint that is reasonably likely to predict the meaningful clinical endpoint, which in the art of the FDA is TFC, Now in rare diseases, when you are evaluating the data sets that you have, in general, regulators evaluate the data from all various endpoints that you have in the trial, and it's their prerogative to use the data from TFC, even if it's not prespecified as the primary, and it's secondary. Even with that, I'll remind you that TFC was specified as a key secondary. And in our hierarchical testing for the 3-year analysis, it was statistically significant following cUHDRS, both in enrolled HDA, which was the analysis we submitted to the FDA, and in this updated analysis at 3 years. So from that perspective, I don't think regulators will be constrained to a great extent by what we chose. But regardless, both of them are static. And with that, I'll turn it over to Dr. [ Sun ].
Unknown Attendee
attendeeYes. I wanted to briefly address. I think the tone of your question really is, is there something with [ Enroll HD ] where this data is not there between year 3 and year 4. Enroll HD has been going on for over 10 years. We've been at site for over 10 years. So there's lots of data in there, but it's as Walid just said, there's just this thing with all natural history databases that patients drop out more over time. And as far as why there's a difference between enroll HDA and B as far as missing this in particular. There's things that we speculate about. And as Walid said, we're going to discuss that with CHCI further to get some color there. I have my own thoughts on that, but I think it's all speculative at this point. And then to address your question, has there been a change in clinical standard of care that could account for the difference between [ NOLA ] and B. I would say no. I don't think there's any new medications that have come out or treatments that would cause especially in a mild group like this all of a sudden for them to deflect and stabilize between year 3 and year 4. And I don't think it's that. I think it really is the missingness of the data, as we've discussed.
Operator
operatorYour next question comes from the line of Patrick Trucchio with H.C. Wainright.
Unknown Analyst
analystThis is Cynthia for Patrick, For the same 2 high-dose patients and the same match controlled methodology, what is the month 36 to 48 cUHDRS treatment effect bridge? Or what are the individual high doses -- high-dose cUHDRS trajectory show between months 36 and 48?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveCynthia, can you clarify, do you mean the 12 subjects who completed the 48 months? How did they look at 36 months versus 48 months? Is that what you're asking?
Unknown Analyst
analystYes. basically for the same 12 high-dose patients using the same match control methodology. Could you maybe walk us through the -- how the cUHDRS treatment effect change month 36 from month 48, including changes in the treated and control groups?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveWe have not conducted a statistical analysis model only on the 12 completers. The matching is done on all of our AMT-130 treated subjects. So all I can tell you is that the observed difference from baseline, which we show on our slide at year 3 for the 12 patients on cUHDRS was 0.38 and at year 4 is 0.9. And that is the difference that we see in those 12 patients. I'm not sure if I'm answering your question correctly, but that's as best I understood it.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] And your next question comes from the line of [ Liconhambery Brown with WilliamBr ].
Unknown Analyst
analystSo maybe just sort of following up to a degree on that last question on the sort of discordance progression between CO HDRS and from month 36 to month 48. Walid, I think you were saying earlier, that's driven mainly by sort of noise from maybe 1 or 2 patients on other parts of the COGS. Can you maybe just confirm that I heard that correctly? But b, what are those patients? Like what does that actually look like clinically? I mean you've highlighted that TFC is sort of what matters. So what does it look like for a patient that's pretty stable on TFC, but declining more on cUHDRS in the real world?
Walid Abi-Saab
executiveYes. So let me be very clear. The TFC ratio, as we see -- we think that the decline or what we see in the subcomponent mainly driven by 2 of the scales: SDMT, where a number of patients have shown a decline between years 3 and 4. This is a cognitive test; and TMS, which tended to be noisy with a couple of patients showing really significant change versus the previous 1 previous measure, which is not really consistent with also how they were doing on TFC as well. What I can tell you is that I believe that, again, TFC measures almost how a patient has been doing and is doing with a little bit of more going back over time a few weeks or a few months. Whereas when you do the cUHDRS, which is an evaluation of cognition, cognitive test and TMS, those are sort of time bound. So what -- however you were feeling that day or they -- sometimes could depend on the effort that you put in and so on and so forth. So cUHDRS to be more sensitive to pick up certain things, but it's also more variable because it doesn't have that what I like to call area under the curve, like how have you been doing in the past few weeks? Because if you're not able -- if you've lost your job or you're not able to function because you're losing performance, then that will be reflected in TFC. If 1 day, you're a bit off and the way you're performing on a cognitive test that will be reflected directly on cUHDRS. So that's how I can best respond to this question.
Operator
operatorLadies and gentlemen, this concludes today's conference call. Thank you all for joining. You may now disconnect.
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