Unite Group PLC ($UTG)

Good morning, everybody, and thank you all for joining the call. Since we last spoke, we've taken action across a number of areas and encouraged to see signs of early progress. And today, we will be updating on current trading, taking you through progress with disposals and flagging the appointment of an adviser to accelerate the repositioning of our portfolio and updating on our Q1 valuations for USAF and LSAV. So starting with trading. Overall, we are trading in line with the guidance we shared in February. We're currently 74% reserved for '26, '27 academic year against 76% at the same time last year. And these reservations are supportive of our rental growth guidance of the 2% to 3% range. Direct-let sales are responding to our productivity. We're currently tracking about 1 to 2 points above the direct-let market at this stage. And the market is competitive, but we are benefiting from our mid-market price points and our productivity on pricing. We're keeping our powder dry on incentives at the moment, but we could see some more promotional activity later in the year, and we are having success at selling beds that have been handed back to us by universities. Nominations are currently at 54%. We've continued to see lower-tier universities be more cautious in their approach and managing their financial exposure. It is fairly normal that we see ups and downs in nominations agreements at this stage, and we could see norms move further by plus or minus 1 to 2 points by the end of the cycle. On the positive side, high-tariff universities are wanting more beds and locking into longer-term agreements and top up for '26, '27. But as we called out in February, it won't be until July when we firm up numbers with universities with some further demand likely in August once they've also been released. We are confident that we will win norms when universities are ready to commit. Hello Student, our brand that comprises the Empiric portfolio is trading in line with the update provided at the prelims. Sales are starting to improve following our early interventions, and we are seeing acceleration we need. We're up 11 points since the prelims. We expect to reach mid-80s at the end of the cycle. We also continue to make good progress with the integration and delivery of synergies. We've now secured GBP 3 million of the GBP 9 million savings targeted for this year. Across Unite and Hello, our teams are fully focused on driving sales. Operational teams are incentivized, web bookings and international and virtual sales teams have all seen good pickup since we last spoke. We've seen good demand from Chinese students in particular. We're selling around 700 to 800 direct-let rooms a week at the moment and the next few weeks are really important to us. We will continue to see the value of our platform and our teams. And I can assure you that we are leaving no stone unturned. On costs, we are fully hedged on energy for this financial year and 70% for '27, and our interest costs are also fully hedged. So overall, progress is in line with our expectations, and we are reaffirming guidance at the lower end of ranges for occupancy and rental growth and for our adjusted EPS to be at the 41.5p to 43p range. Moving on to disposals. As you know, we've always been active recyclers of assets. We set out a target of GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million in November, double our previous run rate and highlighted that this would be a multiyear program. We're making good progress against this target with GBP 130 million under offer or completed with the St Pancras Way disposal to USAF expected to close in May. We have a further GBP 500 million of assets being marketed across a portfolio of lower growth assets, development land, nonstudent assets and from the Empiric portfolio. We recognize that selling assets in this market is not straightforward, but we are encouraged by the depth of investor demand and those looking at our portfolios of assets. We have over 70 investors currently in the data room for the larger portfolio. And given the quantum and range of assets being marketed, this means that we are well placed to deliver on this target. Delivering on these disposals would improve current occupancy by 3 points, improve nominations by 3 points and also improve our operating margins, showing the drag that the tail of the portfolio is having on our overall performance. We've also announced this morning that we've appointed advisers to accelerate the portfolio repositioning. As set out in November, this will enable us to create a higher-quality portfolio. We need to address the tail of the portfolio to align to further strongest universities where demand is and will be strongest and most resistant to further market changes. Our platform and relationships mean that we will be the first choice for both students in all years of studies and universities for the nominations and partnerships, and it will allow us to move faster to our target of 80% high tariff alignment and 60% norms. We believe that higher-quality portfolio offers the best way for us to return to more predictable growing earnings, consistent with our long-term track record, and we will work hard and fast to move through the process and obviously provide updates on our disposal strategy and portfolio shape and size over the coming few months. We will also update on reservations and disposals alongside our AGM in mid-May and further trading update in July. On the share buyback, we've made good progress with GBP 85 million of the GBP 100 million now deployed, and we expect to extend the share buyback program as we make progress with the disposals with proceeds being split roughly between -- roughly equally between existing capital commitments and share buybacks. On valuations, we have seen some softening of yields in Q1 with USAF at 9 basis points and LSAV at 13 basis points. This is largely being driven by outward movement in interest rates and sentiment in the sector, reflecting a tougher trading environment, and we've seen a widening yield differentiation based on the quality and operating performance of individual assets. At this stage in the sales cycle, there is limited rental growth being baked into the valuations, and this will become clearer in Q2 and Q3 valuations as normal. We expect a similar approach to be reflected in the group's wholly owned valuations at H1. Before opening up for Q&A, hopefully, you will see that it's clear that we're not standing still, and we are working hard to deliver on a clear set of priorities, which are: one, to drive operation and sales performance across Unite Students and Hello; secondly, to accelerate the repositioning of the portfolio so that we're the first choice for students across all years of study, nominations and partnerships in the best university cities. And thirdly, to maintain a strong balance sheet, allocating surplus capital to further share buybacks. Together, this will give us the greatest visibility of income and growth, consistent with our track record and enable us to deliver value to shareholders. On that note, we'll open up to Q&A. As stated, questions can be submitted online. Thank you to those already submitted. I think Mike will read out the questions, and then we'll allocate accordingly between us. So Mike, over to you.

Thanks, Joe. I'll start with Ana Escalante at Morgan Stanley, who's got a couple of questions. So the first one is on nomination agreements. Nomination agreements have fallen by 1 percentage point versus the end of February. What has changed since the full year results? Can you explain the flexibility that universities have in the reservations?

Yes. Thanks, Mike. Yes, it's interesting what we're seeing in the market at the moment. I was having really positive conversations with the high-quality university partners. So as I said -- as I mentioned, extending existing arrangements. We've been winning tenders versus other operators and seeing more beds from those operators. Where they're multiyear agreements, we've seen rental growth uplifts typical with what we've had historically. And I'd say a strong performance with those universities. On the flip side, those universities who are less confident on numbers are taking a more cautious approach. A number of those universities have been more active in the single year deals, and that's where we've seen those universities choosing not to renew those agreements or where they have the provision to have some flexibility in numbers, hand back some additional beds as well. It is fairly normal that we would see this movement in nominations rooms at this stage, particularly amongst those 1-year agreements. Where we have multiyear agreements at fixed numbers of beds, they don't have the ability to hand back. So this is really about the fluctuation in the 12% of our portfolio, which has single year agreements. And that is where we're seeing the movement in numbers of beds. And we will continue to see that through the next couple of months as universities get clear on what their final numbers will be.

Great. Thanks, Joe. Second question then from Ana at Morgan Stanley. Can you provide any comments on your previous EPS guidance for 2026? And any views on 2027 based on available information today? Do you see grounds for earnings to decline further in 2027? Thanks, Ana. If I start with EPS guidance for '26, as Joe said, we're reiterating the guidance for 41.5p to 43p of adjusted EPS for this year. So maybe dig into the component parts of that, we've obviously reiterated our income guidance for this academic year, and we continue to sell through. That's a key part of that 2026 earnings guidance. We're also delivering against our cost plan, so delivering the cost savings that we'd anticipated in the Unite business, and we're also making good progress in delivering those GBP 17 million of Empiric cost synergies, GBP 9 million of which will fall into this year and the full run rate will fall into '27. And then in terms of capital investment activity, property activity, that's progressing in line with plan and the '26 earnings guidance assumes GBP 100 million of share buyback. In terms of the 2027 earnings guidance, I think it's fair to say it's a little bit too early. Clearly, the outturn on this academic year sales cycle will be a key influence. As Joe said in his script, our focus is on getting back to growing earnings. Where we come out on income will dictate some of the choices we have to make in 2027, and we'll be thinking very hard about how we manage the cost base and how we allocate our capital so that we can look to get back to that earnings growth as soon as possible. But as I said, we'll be able to provide a further steer on 2027 as we get through the year, but it's a little bit premature at this stage. If I then turn to Tom Musson at Berenberg. Two questions from Tom. The first one here is on the direct-let bed reservations, can you give a sense of how the tenancy lengths are changing versus last year?

Yes. Thanks, Mike. I'll pick that one up. As I stated, we've been proactive on our rent setting. We are looking to drive occupancy and really holding optimizing price and tenancy length is one of the factors that plays into price, and we think about price more on an annual contract value rather than on price and the split of price and tenancy length. It really is determining where you're playing, which customer group that you're targeting. And U.K. undergraduate students typically want a shorter-dated tenancy, whereas internationals are more focused on longer-dated tenancies. So we have seen a slight shortening of tenancies. This has acted as about a 1% headwind to our overall rental growth rates and is factored into our guidance of the 2% to 3% rental growth over the full year. So we will continue to manage to the overall annual contract values of rents and tenancy length is one of the factors that we play with to ensure that we are optimizing the overall income for the business.

Great. Thanks, Joe. And then second question from Tom. How much of the Q1 yield expansion do you think reflects factors specific to the U.K. student market? And how much is driven by macroeconomic events? Can you give any sense of further yield expansion to come? Happy to take that one. So Tom, I think when we look at market data, it does appear that sort of U.K. real estate, we've seen a little bit of an increase in property yields in the first quarter, probably less than we've seen in our portfolio though. So it does feel that the student accommodation market has seen a slight widening in yields versus wider real estate. That's not really transaction driven. We haven't seen a huge amount of trade in the first quarter of the year. We think it's more valuers just being a little bit more cautious in sentiment, and some of that is due to the slightly slower occupational trends. I think in terms of the forward look on yields, very hard to say. We've got assets in the market. We'll be making disposals over the course of this year, so will others. And I think that will dictate where we see yields moving over the course of the next 6 to 12 months. So thanks, Tom. Now moving on to Marc Mozzi at Bank of America. We've got 3 questions from Marc. So the first one is, what is the current net initial yield of the GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million of noncore assets yet to be sold? I'm happy to take that one, Joe. Thanks, Marc. So as we set out at the time of the prelims, we guided that we thought the yield on the GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million disposals will be about 5.5% to 6.5% as a blend. What that includes is a mix of assets. So you've got lower growth assets in there, which are those sort of strategic disposals to help position the portfolio more towards higher tariff universities. We think they will be slightly higher yielding, more like 6% to 7.5%. However, we also have then within that GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million, the disposal of St Pancras Way, and we're also looking to sell some nonstrategic assets, including our build-to-rent assets in London and some of our development sites. So that brings the overall yield down slightly. Second question from Marc. To what extent is the later booking pattern we're seeing a return to normal versus a sign of softer underlying demand, particularly in international and post-graduate segments?

Yes. I think the later booking cycle we've seen over the last couple of cycles, we do feel is more around customers being aware of the fact that some operators have been offering incentives and lowering prices towards the tail end of the cycle and therefore, have been holding out for lower rents at a later stage in the cycle, as I mentioned. I think we are also seeing this shift around fewer international postgraduates in the market who have typically booked at the back end of September, and we didn't see that same level of intensity or pace in last year's sales cycle. So I think it is a combination of more beds being available, students seeing that they can wait. They don't need to rush into make those bookings, which ultimately, if we think about it, isn't actually the most healthy when students are having to book their beds so early in the next academic cycle. So rebookers are taking longer to do that. So I think it probably is a normalization of the cycle having had a couple of years when the student number growth was so significant that it was leading to real shortages of the beds, and there was an element of panic buying. So I think we've got a little bit of returning to normality to where we have been historically.

Thanks, Joe. We then got a final one from Marc on Hello Student. Hello Student reservations stand at 33% versus 48% last year at Q1. How confident are you that this gap closes? And what evidence should investors expect to see of progress over the summer?

Yes. So on Empiric, I think they did have the benefit of a large nominations agreement last year, a 1-year agreement, which has fallen away. That made up about 5 points of occupancy. They also had a systems implementation that went live in Q3 last year, and that led to a delay in their sales cycle. So they missed the first 4 weeks. So they were slightly on the back foot. At 33%, the direct-let sales, and that's effectively all direct-lets across their portfolio, it's pretty much in line with the market. It's only a few points behind where the market is. And so given the pace of sale, the fact that we have seen 11 points of improvement versus 6 points in our own portfolio, I think, goes to show that there is real pace that is coming and that we would expect to see those reservations trending back towards that 85% as we move through the summer. Empiric have typically booked later and their cycle has run later than ours. And again, that is because of a higher post-graduate component to their portfolio. So we will provide updates, and we will be tracking towards that level. And if we feel that we're not getting to it, then we will flag that as we move through the sales cycle.

Thanks, Joe. Next question is from Max Nimmo at Deutsche Bank. On norms, it sounds like there could be a bit of a quality upgrade to income if you can sign more multiyear deals with higher-quality universities. Do you think that's fair? And then the second part of the question, how much of the 54% of norms today is under option from lower tariff universities who may not take up this space?

Yes. Thanks, Max. That's exactly right. We are seeing that move up the quality spectrum. And I think that's been most pleasing about where we are in nominations for this sales cycle. So it is the high-quality universities who are coming back to us. They are more confident about their numbers. And where they're doing that, they are comfortable to be taking longer-term agreements in place. So the movement of that quality register for those nominations is something that we are definitely seeing. So we've set out a target of 60% nominations agreements and the repositioning of the portfolio is a fundamental part of allowing us to do that. And we believe in doing that, that we'll sort of continue to see a greater level of quality and income certainty that underpins those agreements. So we will provide further detail on that as it transpires at the end of this sales cycle. We're flagging that there is a risk of plus or minus 1 to 2 points on nominations at this stage and sort of that minus would be if the remaining flexibility and nominations are all taken up and the plus 2 would be if they're not taken up and we win further beds from additional universities across the spectrum as we go through the cycle. So that is the sort of the range of outcomes that we can see from the current level of 54%.

Thanks, Joe. The next one we've got there is from Rebecca Parker at Goldman Sachs. You've commented about planning to accelerate disposals, to what quantum could the disposal plan be raised to?

So when we're thinking about the quantum and timing of disposals, as I say, we've currently got a target of GBP 300 million to GBP 400 million of disposals, and we set that out in November as a multiyear program. I guess with that, announcing today an acceleration, it's a recognition that we can't take sort of 3 to 4 years to deliver against that disposal program. And we want to make meaningful progress more quickly and certainly by the end of 2027. So we are working up a strategy now, which will give us greater confidence on the quantum and timing and how we will take those assets to market, which we will share with you over the summer. And ultimately, we want to create a portfolio that is aligned to the best, most resilient universities. And we believe that those universities will be the ones that are most resilient to the changes in demand that we are seeing and will have the most enduring demand. We are seeing those universities act with confidence now, and we expect that to continue. And that's why the targets we set out of 80% high tariff and 60% norms and really narrowing the focus of the portfolio to 18 to 20 cities is fundamental to that repositioning and enabling us to get back to that more consistent predictable earnings growth that we really need to get back to.

Thanks, Joe. Next question then is from Neil Green at JPMorgan, still on the theme of disposals. Can you provide any more details of the type of investors that are interested in the on-market portfolio? That's it from Neil.

Yes. Neil, it's -- as you'd expect, the 70%, it's quite a wide range of investors who are looking at it. But probably the bulk of those investors are what we would see is value investors. They're buying assets in that 6% to 7.5% range, which Mike talked about. I think they see an opportunity to drive income, potentially reposition the assets and probably seeing that as a period of time when they can drive value from an asset which isn't at full value at this stage. So -- but as I say, we are really encouraged by that depth and breadth of buyers who are looking at the portfolio, and we'll start to get a sense of where initial views on value will be over the coming few weeks and months.

Thanks, Joe. Next, we've got 2 questions from Aakanksha at Citigroup. The first, just to continue the theme of disposals. Against the backdrop of declining valuations and the GBP 500 million of disposals being marketed, what's the range of discount you might be willing to absorb to get the disposals to your target levels? I'm happy to take that one, Joe. Thanks, Aakanksha. Yes, so we're in the market at the moment. We'll get feedback on pricing on those assets in the coming weeks and months. As I think we said previously, ultimately, we look at the returns we think we can generate from the assets at the prices at which they're likely to transact and then we compare that against our alternative use of capital. So that will inform our thinking on price. As we've said today, we think those lower growth assets will probably trade at yields of between 6% to 7.5%. But ultimately, the North Star is how do we get to a portfolio that is more highly aligned to those strongest universities and where we see prospects for predictable long-term earnings growth, which is in line with our history. So that will inform our decision-making around pricing and how quickly we move through our disposal plan. Second question then from Aakanksha is around promotional activity. So could you give some examples of promotional discounts for direct-let sales? Are there any differences between the United Empiric portfolio in terms of pricing?

Yes. So as I mentioned, we've been more focused on getting the underlying pricing appropriate. And where we've tested incentives has typically been at sort of the GBP 200 to GBP 400 cash back type offer or reduction in price, but we've seen that's had less of an impact in sales velocity and the overall take-up against those relative to where we sort of adjust the underlying pricing. So as we go through the sales cycle and we see competitors act differently, then we may need to adjust and we may need to respond to what we are seeing from our competition. But overall, as I say, we are feeling that we are winning through the approach that we're taking both from a -- to bring customers into our customer funnel, the conversion rates that we're having are performing well, and that is driving the improvement in performance around direct-lets. We are effectively going through the process of bringing the Empiric sales processes more in line with ours. And in terms of an incentives program, we are following the same approach. And where we've seen some of that benefit of the acceleration is, I think, us using our platform, our teams and processes to really drive and ensure that we are optimizing and maximizing those conversion rates across their portfolio. And I think that's encouraging us to see that we can continue to drive that through the remainder of the sales cycle as well.

Thanks, Joe. We've got a next one from Sam King at Covalis. What level of occupancy of the valuers assumed in the Q1 valuations? And has this changed? Is there potential for assumptions to be revised down? I'm happy to take that one, Joe. So Sam, no change in the occupancy assumptions that the valuers have made in their assumptions in Q1. I think it's fair to say, as Joe said, they are being slightly more cautious in reflecting rental growth, and we expect that to continue. So I think when they're thinking about income overall, they're probably being more cautious in passing through rate growth possibly because of that view of caution on where occupancy will be and the fact that it might be slightly below historical averages. I think we would also suggest that some of the softness we've seen in yield this quarter is slightly driven by sentiment on the occupational side. And it's not really down to specific trades that we've seen in the market. And arguably, we think the valuers are using a little bit of yield to adjust for slightly softer occupancy in the near term. And then we have a final question from Matt Saperia at Peel Hunt. Do you have any thoughts on how the impending Renters' Rights Act will change behavior among HMO landlords or pricing move in addition to a reduction in stock?

Yes. Thanks, Matt. It's certainly early days on that one. The Renters' Rights comes into play on the beginning of May of this year. So we don't think it will have a significant impact on this year's academic cycle as students were generally moving out by that stage. New tenancies that are signed for the '26, '27 academic year will start to be impacted. And those new tenancies, if you're a registered PBSA operator, you will be exempt from the Renters' Rights Act, whereas private landlords won't have that benefit. The 2 key impacts that means is that landlords won't be able to sign tenancies or students won't be able to sign tenancies more than 6 months before the start of the sales cycle. So that does mean that what is often a very busy period of time for those landlords where second and third years are signing up through November, December, January, they will either have to go down a route of signing some sort of commitment to enter an agreement or they will have to wait. So again, that will add a further barrier or headache for those landlords and potentially for students being able to lock into those agreements. And then the second impact will be that the students will be able to grant notice or give 2 months' notice to end their tenancy at any time. So that will give the landlords less certainty over the full year's cycle of when they will be able to generate income. So we know what the kind of the changes will be, how that drives and how that impacts student and landlord behavior will flow out. I feel that this is a continuation of the pressure that's been on those landlords over the last few years with some of the changes to tax rates and licensing arrangements, and we will continue to see a steady reduction rather than a significant fall at one moment. So I think it will put further pressure on those -- on that sector, and we'll see that unfold over the next couple of years.

Thanks, Joe. That's all we can see by way of questions on the Q&A. We are aware that we may have had a bit of a challenge in some questions feeding through to the list. So what I would say is if you have any further questions that we haven't taken on the call, please contact Joe, myself and Saxon, and we'd be very happy to speak to you or answer them offline. And with that, I'll hand back to you, Joe.

Thanks, Mike, and thank you all for joining us this morning. We know that there is a lot for us to do, but we are encouraged by the early signs of progress. And hopefully, you recognize that we're focused on driving the performance of the business and getting the portfolio to a place where we can return to that more consistent, predictable and growing earnings. So thank you again all for your time, and look forward to catching up soon. Thank you.