United Microelectronics Corporation (2303) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. So maybe thank you UMC for the discussion. And I will now have my first question. And if you could just discuss your view on a scope of this business cycle within the high teens decline in first quarter. Do you expect it to mark the low? Or do you see or expect given the demand and inventory for the correction into the second Q?

Okay. So last year, we had presented unprecedented demand as well as the results last year. Our revenue actually grew more than 20% ASP. We saw a lot of tremendous strides. That was from a very nice low product mix. And also, our fab usage rate maintained very, very high loadings. So last year, the results were earnings per share, we accomplished a little bit over $7. As far as the current cycle, I think based on the customer forecast as well as the inventory outlook, the whole correction, I believe, started in somewhere between Q2, Q3 last year. And we remain very resilient despite the weakness in overall demand. As for our -- what we see right now, we expect that it will be a very challenging year for 2023 and alluded to are reflected by our quarter 1 guidance of 70% utilization. But most importantly, we firmly believe that our position have dramatically changed, where we expect pricing will remain firm because of our differentiated technologies as well as our enhanced product mix driven by the improvement in our clientele. So we expect that window of demand will come down given the elevated inventory correction. But all else pricing like-for-like basis will remain firm.

Okay. Got it. No, understood. And I have a follow-up. Just can you give me a little bit color of the, like the business outlook by the end markets? And do you see any areas getting closer to the stabilization especially or inventory level is already getting down? Yes. Could you give us some color on this end market?

Sure. So for the end markets, I think the most stable remains is in the automotive segments as well as industrial. We've seen weakness in demand from the communications as well as the consumers. That's also reflected very consistent with the -- and sell-through data as well. As far as the inventory, I think a lot of clients have already stepped in and become very, very conservative in their approach as far as managing their inventory levels. So we hope that inventory will continue to wind down in the next few months, and everybody has taken more caution in terms of how they perceive the current near-term outlook.

Got it. So the -- we know that all the business appears to be a key focus for UMC. And given the relatively strong demand for auto at this point, will we see some like the downside risk or inventory correction in this relatively strong segment, like auto or industrial and we see consumer rebound? But what about the auto and industrial, will see some downside risk here?

Well, for now, I think the demand for auto, the business for industrial has been very resilient. And they appear to be the most strongest, most stable segments of the end market outlook. But even though the automotive, they had been continually very strong. Well, we also, at the same time, will receive customers rolling forecast, and we can react dynamically in real time to see how the market unfolds in the next several months. But for now, automotive seemed to be the most stable sector of the business.

Got it. Got it. Very clear. So for the overall semi cycle, not just about the UMC, will we have a bigger picture on the semi cycle, for example, like the first half 2023, where we see like a bottom and we see bottom out from the second half like this cycle. Could you give us some picture?

Okay. So we believe that the overall semiconductor industry will hit its bottom, it is trough, probably in the first half, most likely in the first half. Because based on the current inventory depletion and inventory in terms of days of inventory from all the supply chain as well as the customer forecast and for the second half, we expect that the trough will be first half 2023.

Got it. So let's move a bit to the pricing. And you just mentioned that the pricing kind of stable from our side. But will we see some pricing downside or downturn? Going forward, we expect to the any like the unreasonable pricing action from the competitors. And so will we see some downside here and into second quarter?

So we'll be able to guide pricing 1 quarter at a time. And as far as what we see in the first quarter, ASP will remain firm. And given the overall outlook and our change in position, our relevance, we've gotten definitely more important as a foundry supplier, as a foundry partner for our global leading customers. And we are offering in terms of providing differentiated specialty customized technologies have also added to our business stickiness. So from that aspect, our customer clientele has broadened and the business has gone much more predictable. So all in all, we expect that pricing for Q1 will remain firm. At the same time, it is our job to continue to provide more value proposition to our customers to elevate their competitiveness, not just from a pricing aspect, but also from a yield success, also from a sizable capacity offering, as well as being able to diversify our manufacturing base across various geographic regions. So I think there's a little bit more to enhancing customers' competitiveness besides just the pricing portion.

Got it. Understood. Let's follow up on the pricing side. If we -- why don't we look at the overall pricing dynamics versus compared to the pre-pandemic level, where we see like the higher level versus pre-pandemic period even despite the downside.

Yes, I think there's a lot of transformation that actually changed within the company pre-pandemic to now. Pre-pandemic, all about pre-2020. At the time, I think our customer mix was not as diversified. Our technology offering was not as grown and as well as our capacity offer. . So when we engage with these customers, number one, they'll look at what we can offer them in terms of technology. Does this work? Do we -- and is it fit their future product road map? Number two, they want to understand the capacity that we can offer. Can we satisfy their 2-, 3-, 4-year demand forecast? And then most importantly, you don't talk about the commercial terms. So number one, number two has to fit their criteria for us to discuss pricing. So all in all, I think we're ahead of -- the company has really kind of transformed itself versus pre-pandemic. And that can be a testament to the hard work from the management, how they need us and the rest of our 20,000-strong employees.

Okay. Got it. Got it. So my next question will be on the CapEx. We know that $3 billion number, given that we are running at the downturn -- into a downturn. Could you talk a little bit about what is the primary, like the mostly 28-nanometer and some Singapore-related expansion. But could you give us a little bit more color on the $3 billion CapEx comprises of this year? What is the composition?

Sure. So for the $3 billion CapEx, it's mostly dedicated towards our expansion in our China 12A flagship, 12-inch fab as well as building the infrastructure in place for our Singapore expansion. And these 2 sites will drive future 28- and 22-nanometer capacity that has been signed off by our clients via long-term agreements. So the long-term agreement extend as far as 6 years. And because we have been endorsed by our customers due to our reliability, predictability in our services, they're willing to sign their long-term agreement with us. So the $3 billion mainly is dedicated towards our near-term, midterm as well as our long-term vision we have to support our customers' growth as well as our internal growth for 28- and 22-nanometer capacity.

Got it. Got it. So okay. So $3 billion this year. So will we see, given the endorsement from the long-term side by the customers, will we see that being relatively stable or even expansion into this $3 billion number going forward to the next few years?

It all really depends how quickly we can build out. Right now, I think the $3 billion is within our internal expectations. Last year, the CapEx was about $2.7 billion. And then the $3 billion again is just a cash-based CapEx from a budget standpoint. And we'll see how the spending and how the delivery of the equipment comes in and then we'll see what happens. But for now, I think it's fair to say that 2023 cash based CapEx will be $3 billion budget.

Got it. Got it. Okay. So will we have some like the potential reduction of the capacity in the current downside or it is endorsed and resilient? Or we can see -- we can like this thing, it is way this firm in this year. So we will be non-related to the current down cycle anymore?

Well, the $3 billion is -- a large part of that is endorsed by our customers. So for now, I think it's safe to say that it's been fully supported by our customers. But we can arrange some adjustments of macro uncertainties to worsen, or there's other event-driven uncertainties or unpredictabilities. It is a dynamic situation. But all in all, for now, I think it's a number that we put out for '23 budget.

Okay. Got it. Got it. Clear. So maybe a little bit more about the capacity expansion. So beyond 28-nanometer, could UMC talk about back to your plan for the feedback capacity expansion in the long term? Yes.

So right now, I think the current production we have for our leading edge is 28%, and then we have some production on 22-nanometer. We expect for 28 and 22, that will be the key focal point as far as for our expansion, for our CapEx, for our growth in the near term. As far as 40-nanometer, we have received inquiries from customers that will need -- will require 40-nanometer in the future. But the most important priority that we have right now is to successfully expand additional 28 and 22 and capture that near-term growth. And when we continue to grow and scale up, we will definitely consider 40. But the most important priority right now in terms of our capacity expansion as well as our CapEx plans are 28- and 22-nanometer technologies.

Okay. So just want to get inside for this part, so for the expansion. Could you give us some, like the plan for the key application to focus on?

Yes. For 28 and 22, it's both for -- we have specialty technologies. 28 now migrating to 22 for CMOS image sensor complementary. They're called ISPs, image signal processors. In addition, we also have specialty technologies for our OLED display drivers. Because you guys are aware, we see a higher penetration rate of OLED displays adopted by many customers around the world, not just in smartphones, but other aspects computing as well. So that's also picking up. In addition, we also have many market demand for as far as connectivity for 28/22-nanometer. Also, there's a lot of opportunities in storage, in NAND controllers. Also in future migration, we expect that more will be involved in consumer products, laptops, notebooks, TVs. So there's a lot of demand on 28 and 22. And also, I think there's also automotive applications as well. So it's -- there's a very broad end market play right now, demand from a lot of our design wins.

Sure. Got it. Very clear. So my next question will be regarding to the utilization. We know that this is current down cycle and during the downturn of the macroeconomic headwinds, where we have further like the color on the utilization trend this year will be more like sticking to the seasonality or will be a bit different to previous cycle?

I think what we can see now is we had a really nice level run in the last couple of years, and then it kind of corrected itself in Q4 as customers kind of tightened their inventory management. In Q1, I think demand will continue to fall by the low teens in terms of winter shipment. We expect that Q2, it shouldn't be too much different. But we expect that the trough in this current cycle will bottom out in the first half 2023, given the customers' confidence in the second half. But we'll wait and observe when that timing comes because there is a minimum of 2- to 3-month lead time in terms of our wafer starts versus wafer out shipment to our customers.

Okay. Got it. So just want to clarify that we kind of like to expect that Q1 will be the bottom given that we own or that many customers, their overall end demand is kind of sequentially up in second quarter and all quarters in this year?

Well, we'll see. But it's more uncertain times this year. Right now, we're in some uncertain times at this present. In Q1, we expect a decrease in our Q4 wafer shipments down again, down in the high teens. So we'll see how Q2 plays out. But we expect the bottom from this current cycle will be first half 2023.

Got it. Got it. So just have a little touch on the Samsung side, our customer. Is UMC concerned about the risk of potential in-sourcing from any like OLED DDIC, given that we have some expansion plan or the current business exposure to this?

Well, I think we are very, very cautious in terms of providing new technologies. And we are very, very proactive in terms of upgrading our solutions with our low cost versus our strong transistor performance in our 28 and 22 nanometers. So the current production plan is going to be 28, and then some products will transition to 22. But as far as our customers, we can't really comment too much. But we are doing our technology exploration on future technology beyond the 28- and 22-nanometer nodes.

Got it. Got it. Clear. So back to the pricing side. We have seen that the leading like the boundary in Taiwan to have some pricing upside to the customers. What is our view on this? And do you think the implication to the overall foundry industry, is it a positive sign? Or there's some potential risk? Yes.

So the pricing based on various foundry sites, right now, the pricing we have right now for various sites still will remain consistent, although the input cost as well as the start-up costs at various sites will vary due to the current inflationary pressures experienced globally. But I think the current pricing scheme we have in place will be pretty much same unless it's for these new capacities. So for the new capacity that we will ramp in our 12-inch flagship, 12-inch fab in Tainan, as well as our Singapore fab, there will be based on a long-term agreement pricing scheme, which is different from the current market price.

Okay. So my next -- my final question will be about the -- going back to some deeper site to the long-haul customer. Will we see post Chinese New Year, will we see any demand dynamic changes to -- versus pre-Chinese New Year? Will we see the demand pick up? And also to the wafer start, any like the color you could provide to us?

Well, I think we don't really look at like a pre-Chinese New Year, post-Chinese New Year. But I think the inventory levels are very, very -- even though they were elevated 1 quarter ago, 2 quarters ago, they're being worked out now. So for the end -- overall end demand remains very blue corn and remains very soft. So in the near term, again, back to our narrative in terms of the short-term outlook, we don't expect anything to pick up significantly, especially in the quarter 1 and quarter 2. So we expect that demand will be soft in the week for the first half, both quarter 1 and quarter 2.

Okay. Got it. So thank you for your clear guidance and also the clarification of investors in all questions. And eventually, do we have any closing remarks to the customers or the audience?

Sure. I think UMC has transformed itself versus a few years back, led by our management team. And we are more cautious in terms of expansion, given that our capacity that's endorsed by our global leading customers partners. And that is -- includes a loading protection as well as a firm pricing based on their product SKUs as well as their volume commitment. And UMC has also provided a differentiation in our 28, 22 as well as our other 12-inch technology nodes. That includes embedded high voltage, power BCD for the 5G evolution. In addition, we have embedded [ non-value haul ] membranes for many of our MCU customers. And also, we have a lot of new RF SOI solutions as well. So this is a very exciting time for our customers, for our shareholders and for -- and our customers really look forward in UMC providing this value-add to as a foundry supplier. But we appreciate your support, your long-term support, and we'll look forward to speaking with you soon. Thank you.

Thank you. Thank you, David.

Thank you.