UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon, everybody. Welcome to UPM Capital Markets Day 2024. So happy to see you all here. So kind of a big group of people. This event is also being live webcast and there's probably even bigger crowd there. So welcome to all of you online as well to this event. Let's start with the agenda of the day. So we have 2 sets of -- 2 parts to the program today. So first of all, we will hear about UPM corporate strategy and capital allocation, presentations by our CEO, Massimo Reynaudo; and our CFO, Tapio Korpeinen. And after that, we will have our first Q&A session of the day. Then in the second part of the day, we will dive deeper into the growth businesses of UPM with some sustainability highlights as well. And there will be another second Q&A session at the end of that part. Here, you can see the QR code to Slido. This is the way how you can record your questions throughout the event, and this is especially for the online audience. Of course, here on site, you don't need to use it. You can simply raise your hand in the Q&A session and wait for the microphone to arrive to you. In either case, please state your name and company before asking the question. Briefly about safety. So in case there would be any emergency, the 2 exits are on either side of the stage and then go to that direction to the end of the corridor, there is a Red Stairs sign with a fire exit sign as well. That's the way out of the building. Without further ado, let's get the event going with our CEO, Massimo Reynaudo.

Hello. Good afternoon. Thanks for having my time in your agendas to come and join us today, either in presence or for the people that are there, thanks for joining us remotely. Today, over the next couple of hours, we are going to be sharing with you what our ambitions and visions are for UPM in the future. But where do we start from? Today, the most common definition of UPM is that is a Finnish forestry and paper company, which is what we are, and we're proud of that. We are however much more than that and beyond that. If we look briefly backward to the journey the company has been into and the transformation it has undergone over time. You will see that if we take a point in time here, it is some 15 years ago, kind of 2/3 of the revenues were coming from paper, communication paper, graphic paper. Now if we fast forward and come in to where we are now, that still represents a significant part of our portfolio. It's about 1/4. But meanwhile, 3 quarter of the revenues are coming now from a number of other businesses. It is either businesses that have been created during the time span from scratch. So completely new businesses or businesses that in the majority of the cases, during these years have grown to be the scale of a mid, sometimes a large-scale company. And in the majority of these businesses over time, we've built #1 or #2 positions in those markets. So this is why I'm saying we are what I said we are, but we are much more. But then let me also share another dimension here. If we go back same point in time, 3/4 of our sales were in Europe. Now almost half our revenues are coming from outside Europe and U.S. from Americas, from Asia, from other parts of the world, and that proportion is growing. So today, we are a truly global company. We have today, let's say, either operations or a commercial presence in 43 countries. We have 86 nationalities represented into our UPMers employee group. So this is what we are, what we became during the transformation over the last -- the last years. But if this is what we are, this is how we have achieved it. It is sustainability. Sustainability in its broadest sense has always been a core value for our company, which meant that it's something that we felt like pursuing not just because there is a legal or there will be a legal requirement or there can be a commercial return from doing it. But because it's the right thing to do. This is what has always animated our actions and our principles. And this has made in the segments where we're competing, we are normally recognized as being a front runner in this area. And this is not just recognized by our customers. This is recognized and certified by a number of globally renowned independent bodies that normally rate us at the top of their ratings. This is -- has been important, and this will be fundamental, and we will continue to maintain this as part of our priorities and values going forward. But during the same time span I've described before, the company has undergone this profound transformation while maintaining good discipline, a robust balance sheet and delivering solid robust return to the shareholders, 14% per annum. So I'm sharing these elements because this represents the foundation upon which we want to build the UPM over the next -- the next years. When we will characterize or if we try to characterize the next year, a simple way to put it is years of growth. That is what we will be pursuing. But where and how, let me share now. First, and before we dive into things, I'd like to share with you this, which is a new way, which -- of characterizing what we are, which I think it is important because it better helps us to explain or to describe what we are. Today, we are a global company, which has a portfolio of businesses that includes products and that are, let's say, critical for consumers for applications into well-established businesses. But it also contains products and solutions with a high technical and technological content, highly innovative, which are critical to serve the need of a world that is looking for a more sustainable future. Let me give some more content about this. If we talk about graphic paper or communication paper, well, I think we have covered it. This has been part of our past, it's part of our present, will be part of our future. When we talk about renewable fibers, so it's our definition of, say, to capture what we do in the pulp business. That is a space where in the last years, we built through investment, we built a position of #3 player in the world in scale. We are the #1 in that space as a multi-fiber provider. And this is an area where we see significant growth opportunity still. Then there is this other area, we call advanced materials, it's a definition that includes a variety of materials for a variety of applications. It includes labeling materials and laminates from Raflatac for applications and let's say, in the labeling space. It includes specialty paper and barrier materials developed by our specialty business. It includes the variety of plywood for a multitude of different applications. So what these products have in common is, let's say, is the result of our investment in research and development that gives them a technical content, which represent a value creation opportunity. But not only these products or this space, a space that is represented by these products is such that we still have a lot of untapped opportunity even if over time in each of the business that I've mentioned will build a #1 or #2 position, either globally or in Europe. And this is definitely an area where we will be looking for or we are looking for the growth of the future. And then up there is what we call the carbonization solution. Again, it's a clustering of things we have and other things that we may be adding over time. This cluster is made of solutions that have as an objective to respond clearly to a demand from our society to alternative to fossil-based solutions. And it includes, for example, energy. We are a large energy producer. We produce -- we have a capacity of 12 terawatt hours annually. CO2-free electricity in a world that requires and will require more electricity and CO2-free electricity. It is about biofuels. It is about biochemicals and we are at the very eve of the entry into that market. But it can be tomorrow more. It can be what is called the big definition power tweaks. Because if we look at these different businesses, this is not just an arithmetic sum of different business -- independent businesses. First of all, this business is all leaned today on a common base. And even more tomorrow, this common base of sustainable renewable feedstock will be important. Because if the world has done the transition from fossil fuels to alternatives from the use of oil, coal, gas to something else that will require a quantity of feedstock that will make feedstock a bottleneck in the future. We have today a presence, capabilities in the management of feedstock, and we see renewable, sustainable feedstock as the base of creating a competitive and distinctive advantage in all these businesses. But it's not just that, we have interdependencies between different businesses that, again, can build into competitive advantages. Because, for example, in this area, there are, let's say, side stream of pulp production that can become feedstock for other businesses. So if we take lignin, sawdust, bark and so on. This can be valuable side stream there. This can be valuable feedstock for the production of biofuels or biochemicals. If we take the biogenic CO2, which is produced here, that can become once again a valuable feedstock for production of the fuels in the future, for example. But not just that, the biochemicals that we produce here can be utilized to produce the filmic applications for Raflatac to replace with renewables sources fossil-based films today utilized in the market. So this is to indicate the connection between these different businesses. But now if you bear with me and go ahead into looking at what we do today with these new lenses, it will be very visible of our portfolio today is very balanced. So this is a representation in numbers of our portfolio. But if we take a look here in the middle, today, well, actually, this is the average over the last 5 years. But today, the 4 segments contribute in almost an equal way to the profit generation of our company. And that is -- and that's been a critical element because this has ensured performance across all business cycles, the fact of having a balanced portfolio. And of course, there have been different investment levels behind the different businesses to build these positions. And that will soon -- will illustrate more where our investments have gone in the past, the generation, the return from those investments and with the same lenses. But here, what I would like to do is to focus more on the opportunity going forward represented by these businesses. So 3 out of these 4 segments are insisting on markets characterized by growth. If we talk about renewable fibers, we can assume growth in the, let's say, in the scale of the GDP growth. But the GDP growth on a huge existing market, it means every year the creation of a huge profit pool that we want to tap into or continue to tap into. If we talk about advanced materials, they are typically beyond, let's say, the fluctuations of these recent years, but we are typically talking about market segments with a growth rate historically and projected into the future in the scale of mid-single digit. So important growth, an important markets in scale. And then if we talk about the carbonization solutions, the growth potential there is really exponential. Now to capture that growth, that growth investments are needed. And the type of investments that are needed are different. There are segments where the capital intensity is high like pulp. And normally, investment cycles are very long. There are -- and that is partly common to the decarbonization solutions even though the scale of the investment there compared to the renewable fiber is much smaller and the cycles are shorter. Then when we talk about advanced materials, those are segments where the level of capital needed is very low, where we had historically excellent return on the capital employed. That generate a good level of profitability and where we are going to be tapping into for the future growth. So what this is describing is a mix of growing opportunities where we want to focus upon, investment, let's say, cycle and scales which will give us the possibility to distribute and modulate the focus, the investment to seek a growth that maintains the portfolio balance as a way to ensure continued, predictable, growing earnings going forward. But very briefly, I will be giving you a couple of elements for each of these segments because then in the second part, today, there will be a deeper dive in each of them done by the different colleagues. But let's start with the base there, graphic paper. What will we be doing there? Well, we will continue to do what we have been doing. And that's something which I think we have done pretty well. There, we have a clear #1 position in Europe, where most likely the biggest player globally there. We have, during the past years, despite a declining market, we have been able to run our ecosystem of assets in an efficient way. We have been very disciplined in taking away unused capacity when demand has declined. We have evolved also the way we manage the commercialization of those products. We have made the choice at the base of everything to stay in this market in times where that was not obvious. A number of companies have decided to leave. And if we look at what we have achieved in the last 5 years, it is EUR 1.9 billion of cash. And by the way, and comparatively, it was EUR 1.9 billion, also the 5 years before in a larger market. So the change of the market structure has enabled the fact -- the ability to generate robust cash, which has contributed to the transformation we've seen before and which we believe will have to contribute to pursue the transformation and the growth we pursue in the future. If we talk about renewable fibers, there, we have basically 2 different platforms. We have a platform in the northern hemisphere in Finland, and we have a newly well, not newly -- some years, but newly created a more recent platform in the Southern Hemisphere in Uruguay. The situation in the 2 platforms is different. The Northern platform has always delivered exceptional level of profitability over time, but it's now under some stress linked to the, let's say, constraint on wood availability following the ban to the import of Russian wood. It remains a good platform, but there, while we think about the future, we also need to manage the present, and we are managing the profitability of that platform to protect the profitability there. And likely in some time, we share more about that. But we will also share bit more about Uruguay, the other platform, where today, we have 60% of our capacity. And it's a platform today that is world-class in terms of cost base, today. And we still have important room for optimization and further value extraction. Through optimizing, fully optimizing the investment we have just concluded. We just reached capacity in quarter 2. We have plenty of optimization still ongoing. But then we do regard Uruguay as an overall platform for further development also beyond that. But don't want to steal the thunder from Aki's presentation. He will cover that in more detail. Next, advanced materials. I said about the positions that have been built in these businesses over time. These businesses have been a bit off the main radar in the past because in the previous capital cycle, you need to make decision about where you allocate resources, and they have been greatly allocated. But here, when we look at the future, we have considerable value that we can create and capture through organic growth but also the structure of these markets, the level of fragmentation, the existence of, let's say, realities that can be integrated with substantial value creation through synergies makes that we do regard this area as a place where potentially to invest to trigger growth also inorganically. Why we do that? We focus on sharpening our competitiveness, which is a critical prerequisite. And then -- it is -- in this segment, demand has recovered from the lows last year, but it's still not at the top reach in 2022. So we have the full potential. We have still the full capacity there available. We are set to capture the rebound of the demand, and this, we will make sure that we will capture the fair share of the rebound or possibly more. And then when we come to the decarbonization solutions. Looking forward, we have, let's say, last year started to operate, the operation started in the Olkiluoto 3, which has increased in a sizable way, 50%, our capacity in terms of electricity generation. Now extracting the full value of that investment is the priority. When it comes to biofuels, we have a presence there. We have a mill in Lappeenranta in Finland. That business has been delivering excellent returns and margins that until the market situation changed toward the second part of the year. The profitability of that business is more under stress right now. There is focus and activities to turn it back and there is confidence of the ability of turning it back to good margin levels in the close future. And one of the actions to achieve that, well, not the only one, is the accreditation process, which has started for the production or the commercialization of sustainable aviation fuel, which will open up new opportunities and opportunities for more sustainable margins in the future. But last but not -- definitely not least, the biochemical market. I said it before, we are at the eve of entering that market. Everything is on shadow to start production at the end of the year. And of course, let's say -- well, the commercial pipeline is robust. There's a lot of market interest. We are, at the same time, very prudent because it's entering into a new market and so on. But we are also very optimistic about that. And going across the ramp-up of production and the ramp-up of the business, having validated all the hypotheses and assumptions that need validation, we see further expansion in the biochemical market as an opportunity. Because there, we have a competitive advantage that comes from the combination of, let's say, unique technology, own technology and the expertise that we have gathered in this year that give us a lead on anybody else that will be looking into this market. And we consider it as, let's say, a distinctive advantage and a few years of lead compared to others. I did not mention before, I forgot, but when we talk about biofuels despite, let's say, the fluctuations of the market in the short run, we do regard the biofuel market as being an attractive perspective in the future, providing that we get to develop a competitive proposition that, in our view, is going to be based, once again, by proper development of our proprietary technology that we know we have. We know it works. We just need to scale it up, combined with own feedstock. But again, Winfried soon will bring us more into this area. So -- and to recap to putting all these actions together, if we visually or figuratively represent our businesses, this is the scale of each of these businesses. And if we project ourselves in the future, we see growth coming in the fiber, renewable fiber area, sizable growth. The trend there is on the rail. This refers to maximizing and optimizing the investment in Paso de los Toros and further extracting value on the platform in Uruguay. But then in parallel, the cash generation from paper, the additional cash that will come from this investment will give us a number of options and possibilities and investment in terms of opportunities that we can make to grow the advanced material, our position in advanced materials and then into the decarbonization solution. So that over time, we do maintain this balance portfolio that we have that I said, has been the base for delivering consistent performance across cycle. And by the way, yes, we do see the graphic paper business getting smaller. But as said, we have the confidence that it will continue to deliver substantial cash. Just before we wrap up my presentation, we just want to introduce a further direction for development. If we look at the same businesses from a geographical standpoint, what you will see here that the different businesses today have a different dispersion or different distribution of their revenues globally. We have businesses like decarbonization solutions that today are mostly European businesses. Whereas the other businesses have elements of presence in other parts of the world. Advanced materials is a pretty global business. So then when we project ourselves into the future, this is again figurative, but we see growth coming in every part of the world. We see, however, this process of globalization continuing so that we can capture the value that is there in Europe. But also we -- as we are talking about, let's say, segments, with growth in certain areas, the growth is bigger in other parts of the world. And we are building plants, we will be building plants to capture the growth opportunities where we are. So -- and to recap, growth is what we pursue, balanced, progressive profitable growth by investing with discipline like we have always done on to large-scale opportunities with long-term and solid fundamentals and where we have a clear -- we call it right to win, a clear element that makes us different and give us the confidence that we have something unique to offer to that market that will support the return on the investment we make over there. By doing that, we aim to create a stream of earnings that will sustain and support the generation of attractive dividends, attractive, predictable and growing over time. But here I stop and leave stage for Tapio that will provide more color and more content about these specific elements.

All right. Thank you, Massimo, and good afternoon on my behalf also for everyone here in London and online as well. The UPM investment case for shareholders has been, I would say, very much based on 3 fundaments in terms of how we run the company. Number one is focus on performance, which means robust cash flow. Number two is disciplined investments and profitable growth. And the third point is sharing the returns in terms of distributing cash to the shareholders. And I think we have a solid track record on all these 3 points to show. And in the next 15 minutes or so, I'll discuss how the case looks today and going forward as well. Looking at the sort of history here quickly first and the sort of the past 5 years, let's say the world has been impacted and all businesses in the world have been impacted by external shocks like COVID lockdowns, supply constraints after the COVID time, Ukraine war, inflation surge, you know them. And that is the reason why we have seen a period of unusual volatility when it comes to the UPM bottom line during the past 5 years, including, let's say, a record year of profits in 2022 record by some distance. But different, let's say, from the history of kind of a sequence of improving returns. But again, let's say, after this sort of unusual period of volatility, our target is to resume earnings growth. And I would say that after the investments that have been completed or are about to be completed in Uruguay and in Leuna, the biochemicals business, structurally our capacity to generate earnings and returns is better than before. But then on top of that, in the short term, there is sort of operating leverage or potential in the existing businesses of UPM, let's say, starting from the positive side, obviously, as Massimo already was pointing out, we have now the benefit of the new Paso de los Toros pulp mill running at capacity in Uruguay. But then in addition to that, in other businesses as well as markets continue to recover, we have capacity to benefit from that recovering demand. Then on the sort of headwind side, where we need to and expect to turn around the business in a sense is that in Finland, we do have a tight wood market, as said already, because of the stop of imports of wood from Russia. I would say that the industry is still -- the industry as a whole is still sort of in the way of finding a healthy response to the new situation, the new sort of market realities, structural problems require a structural solution, we believe. We have efficient operations in Finland, so we can manage our assets in Finland for profitability and cash flow in the circumstances to come. Then looking at biofuels, as said also by Massimo, we are in a situation of sort of short-term turbulence in the biofuels market. So after a number of years, of quite attractive profitability now in the first 6 months of this year, the biofuel bottom line has been negative in terms of EBIT, about EUR 31 million. But we do believe that, let's say, the longer-term outlook for the business is positive. And we do expect that we will see a sort of normalization of the market and margins going ahead in the biofuels business. And then finally, we have been investing in building the new refinery for biochemicals in Germany in Leuna. But in top -- or on top of the capital expenditure, obviously, starting up a new business means that we have been also investing in building the business platform. So therefore, we do have a OpEx sort of headwind or load of about EUR 34 million in the first 6 months of this year. And obviously, now when the business goes online at the end of the year, it means that after these investments in building up the business and in building the refinery in Germany, we start to generate income and return on the investments made. Then about the strong cash flow, this is a look over the past 5 years of the cash generation and profile of the different businesses of UPM. Of course, the first point here is that all UPM businesses are cash generative when it comes to operating cash flow. So quite, let's say, diversified base of source of cash for UPM as a whole. Obviously, in renewable fibers, in pulp, we have had the project in Uruguay. So in terms of free cash flow, then that's where the, let's say, focus of CapEx outflow has been and therefore, free cash flow during the past 5 years on the negative side. Biggest project in UPM history. But then looking at advanced materials, strong operating cash flow, less capital-intensive business. So therefore, actually, the biggest contributor in terms of free cash flow for UPM as a whole. Decarbonization solutions, energy biofuels, there also operating cash flow quite strong than the recent investment outflow to Leuna visible in the free cash flow. Graphic Papers, as Massimo already pointed out, a valuable asset for UPM, almost EUR 4 billion of free cash flow over the past 10 years. We are coming to the end of historic investment cycle for UPM as a whole. Now the CapEx is turning down. Operating cash flow from these investments will be obviously now rolling in. So with the lower CapEx, we are coming to a bit of -- like just pointed out here, harvesting period during the next 2, 3 years. Balance sheet is strong and will likely strengthen. Then we have had a kind of a baseline of predictable, attractive sharing of cash with the shareholders in terms of dividends, which is illustrated here on this chart as well. So obviously, you can see from here, sort of positive, consistent development over time as such. But then also in terms of scale, well, in balance with the investment back in the company into the growing businesses. Still, let's say, another look at how investments have been allocated between the businesses. So renewable fibers, the pulp business and the project in Uruguay, obviously, the biggest allocation of capital in terms of CapEx for the company and then Leuna in this decarbonization biochemicals refinery in Germany. And let's say, the dividend out to the shareholders. Thinking about the next sort of period of time, we will likely see a shift in terms of the investment outlay more towards advanced materials businesses, decarbonization as well as we scale up in biochemicals, eventually in biofuels, but not obviously forgetting the attractive distribution of cash to the shareholders. So looking at the past 5 years history as a whole. How does this look like, EUR 5.4 billion invested back into the business, into the company in the transformative growth projects. So the weight has been more on investing for growth, but EUR 3.6 billion at the same time, cash distribution to the shareholders. And in this period of time, at the moment, net debt-to-EBITDA is 1.64x. So balance sheet has been kept strong, which is appreciated, obviously, also by the rating agencies. So then what could the next 5 years period look like? Here is an illustration and let's say, on this perspective as well, we will likely see a shift in focus as said, as we are coming into a bit of a harvesting time of the investments made in Uruguay and in Germany. But still, I would say, a significant capacity for profitable growth investments, EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion. And then perhaps, as said, more weight on distribution of cash to the shareholders. In practice, I would say this is a question of timing as well. There's a time to prepare for the next period of growth, larger growth investments. And in the meantime, then we can share some of the returns now in terms of cash to shareholders. So then to summarize, what can you expect on this account and in terms of use of capital from UPM? As said, we are looking to grow, and we're looking to grow the company in a balanced way. We have opportunity in most all of the businesses of UPM that are facing growing markets. As said, likely more weight now in the businesses of advanced materials, decarbonization going to the next period of time, but there's opportunity, let's say, in the pulp platform, particularly in Uruguay as well Aki will soon give you a bit more color on that. But then sharing in terms of distribution to the shareholders will be also important focus and maybe a bit more weight now in the short term while we prepare for the next investments. Again, a kind of a baseline for the shareholder will be in a predictable, consistent progress as far as dividends is concerned. But then we can also complement that dividend sort of stream with share buybacks during the coming period as well. We do, as I said, have a strong portfolio of options, a number of prospective investments in the businesses that UPM has, where we have, let's say, strong pace of evidence in terms of being able to generate superior returns. And thinking where we might, let's say, go with the investments and the impact of those for UPM bottom line going forward. In the past years, we have completed about EUR 4.7 billion of growth investments that are profitable. We have a capacity of invest, let's say, another EUR 3 billion in growth during the next 5 years, EUR 7.7 billion in total, thereabouts. And if you take our target of return on capital employed, 14%, that would mean in scale of EUR 1 billion new EBIT for the UPM bottom line. So maybe, I'll stop there, and I believe we are next ready then for Q&A together with.

All right. Now is indeed our first Q&A session of the day. So online, you can use the slide though, to type in questions. Please give your name and company and then here in the audience, just raise your hand and wait for a microphone to arrive so that -- also the online audience can hear you. Well, let's take a Lars first.

Lars Kjellberg at Stifel. 2 Questions, you talked about structural problems, i.e., the Finnish wood situation requires structural solutions. I just wanted to understand exactly what that means because you also said Tapio that you're fine, so you're not going to have to do anything, someone else has to. So I just wanted to understand what you were really trying to say. The second component, again, comes back to structural. You talk about where you have the right to win, we have a structural advantage. So I just wanted to understand where do you see you have structural advantages in advanced materials in sustainable solutions? From our vantage point -- from my vantage point, sustainable solutions is difficult to evaluate because we don't really know what it is and where you stand on biochemicals, for example, right? So it will be interesting to see why you think you have an advantage situation? And advanced materials, of course, you have some really good competitors, they're generating really good returns. So why would you have the right to win in those businesses?

I think I can pick this question. About the first one, structural problems require structural solutions. Say, what situation -- the situation is of wood scarcity in the Nordics, Finland be part of the Nordic. This is determined as a consequence, an increase of cost and this is a part of the equation, but increased cost or increased wood prices don't solve the other part of the problem, which is lack of wood. So simply today, there is more demand than availability. So if this situation will continue over time, some capacity will have to go out. We're talking about structural solutions in the market in general. When we talk about how we are dealing with that situation, Aki will cover this point in better little detail later on. But if you want, we have moved the management of our finished platform in the current circumstances from maximized capacity standpoint, which is always around full to maximize profitability, which can mean running full or not depending on a number of circumstances. Aki will expand more about that. The second question was about sustainable advantage or competitive advantage in the advanced materials. Actually, that's -- and solutions. Well, actually, it's a variety of businesses, and this competitive advantage may vary in the different areas. And again, these elements will be, let's say, expanded in the following presentation. So I say at a very high level. But advanced materials, we are 1, 2 in position in the business today. That has been built, thanks to the competitiveness of our proposition, which is a mix of technical capability, R&D, world-class manufacturing, evolving or developing service offers, meeting customer’s needs. And to the, let's say, decarbonization solutions, again, different businesses. But if we take one of the common elements to biofuels and biochemicals, it is this feedstock at the base of it. It's not just that. It's feedstock combined to proprietary technologies. Those are sustainable, competitive advantage that we count on building upon and maintaining over time.

Maybe I'll add on the Finnish question, Lars has followed the industry for a long time, and we have seen this movie before in 2008, 2009. So there needs to be a kind of a reset in the market and in the industry in the Nordics. Point here is that we have 3 mills, more than 800,000 tonnes of capacity. So whatever in a sense, the needed steps are we have more tools in our toolbox than the mills that are, let's say, by some distance less competitive than we are.

It's Patrick Mann from Bank of America. I had 2 questions. The one was you spoke about the growth rates in some of the underlying or 3 of the 4 vectors and then graphic paper going backwards. Could you maybe tie it all together, when we think of the group as a whole, what kind of growth rate do you think you can get with those 3 offsetting graphic paper declining over time, if you understand. So how much of the growth is replacement? How much of it is overall business growth? And then I have a second question, but I'll hold off.

Okay. Well, let's look backwards, backward history is fact. If we look backward, you may have captured it 2008 EUR 9.5 billion of revenues. Today, some EUR 10.4 billion, EUR 10.5 billion. So over this time frame, the company has transformed and has absorbed the decline of paper, when that was a much bigger business than it is today. Going forward, let's say, the offsetting potential of the other business is going to be much, much bigger. Of course, the rate, the number will depend by the mix of the evolution of the other elements. But this simple effect, relative proportion between businesses creates, let's say, a much higher growth potential.

And then the second question was just if we look again at capital allocation going forward, you're saying the last 5 years was EUR 3.6 billion to shareholders going forward, indicative EUR 4 billion to EUR 5 billion. How should we think about that as a split between sort of progressive dividend increasing and sort of potential shareholder buybacks? Could we just say, oh, that's $1 billion of -- sorry, EUR 1 billion of shareholder buyback? Or is that the wrong way to think about it?

Let's say, that is obviously then for the Board to consider. Anyway, so that's still for the Board to consider, early to sort of give any numbers there. But what we have obviously said earlier that when there's likely to be also in the future, certain sort of, let's say, cycle in terms of bigger investments of UPM, then share buybacks can be a way to sort of complement dividend and how to sort of -- how that can be put together, that will be -- as a program that will be then considered by the Board.

It's Johannes Grunselius from DNB. You said a few times in the presentation that it's about harvesting times in '25, '26, meaning low CapEx compared to previous years. Could you give some more color on that? If you think about depreciation, for example, should we see that as you will be below depreciation on CapEx? And if not, in which areas you might talk about that later. But yes, if you could address that question.

Well, let's say, again, if you kind of look at like in that chart that I showed the history in a sense prior to the big investments in Uruguay and in Leuna, then maintenance CapEx has been around EUR 200 million or below than the sort of investments that we have made earlier into the existing businesses, new paper machine in China actually, the refinery in Lappeenranta, so actually in the scale of some hundreds of millions. It has meant that our total CapEx has been somewhere between EUR 300 million to EUR 400 million. So yes, below what our depreciation is at the moment. In that sense, prior to any bugger next step projects in the billion scale then we are likely to be for some years, so here now below depreciation.

Robin Santavirta from Carnegie. Now I have a question related to the capital allocation slide, the next 5 years. And when I look at the CapEx level, EUR 3 billion to EUR 4 billion, I guess that's around EUR 700 million per year. So quite a low number in the way you described as more harvesting time. I'm just wondering in the biochemicals certainly seems to be a quite interesting space for you guys. You are quite optimistic about it as proprietary technologies, the feedstock. Why are you not moving more aggressively there? Is it sort of the common UPM way of doing, you want to see before you go big or is there something else? Because if you wait too long, history tells us there's other people in the game and so forth.

I can take this one. Definitely, biochemical is, as I said before, an extremely attractive and looks very promising market. Let's not forget, however, that we are entering in this market with a brand-new technology. We're starting up a refinery, which has a ramp-up time, which is longer than the ramp-up time of a pulp mill and Winfried will give soon some more color and some more facts about that. And then really, it's entering into a new market. So it's not just operational ramp-up. It's all what comes with. So of course, our intention is to build on this case and act as fast as possible. But at this point in time, we also want to be prudent and learn to walk before we promise we'll start running. Not missing ambition.

I understand. That's good to hear. Now another one, if I may. And that's -- when I look at the same slide again and look at the past 5 years and add the investment with the dividend or shareholder return, I guess, we get to EUR 9 billion. And then when I do the next 5 years and the average is, I guess, we get to EUR 8 billion, which, in a sense, says either your cash flow earnings are weaker the next 5 years, which is not seems to be the case or the new strengthened balance sheet. But could it be -- because now you have Uruguay, Paso de los Toros, I guess, that's EUR 0.5 billion or more cash flow, could it be a case that the Paso de los Toros gain is the same amount as the loss in the platform in Finland given the tough wood raw material environment?

Well, let's say if I can comment on that because I kind of guess that somebody will ask that question. And the short answer is, obviously, which you already alluded to that we reserve the right to pay back some debt. So that will, let's say, again, be part of preparing for the next bigger investments. And as said, I think it's more a question of timing when, in a sense, we feel that the time is right to, let's say, pull the trigger on the final investment decision, but Massimo was saying, for instance, in biochemicals. I think the other point that you were asking in a sense that, do we see some sort of deterioration in the sense in other businesses that Uruguay, for instance, has to compensate for, I would obviously not say that, that's, in a sense, what we are expecting or indicating here, the history of UPM shows that we know what it sort of takes to take care of the bottom line of the existing business and asset base at hand.

Let's take 1 question from online here in between. So this is, again, well, focusing on shareholder distribution. So why not weight it more on buybacks vis-a-vis dividends. This is referring to kind of North American examples.

Well, as I said earlier, again, that is yet to be determined in a sense that and the Board, obviously, in the end, will consider what is the sort of line that we take. Still, I would say that kind of again, the baseline that we believe is valuable for the investors in terms of consistency and predictability to have a kind of solid track in terms of dividend payout and then how do we sort of eventually complement that with share buybacks that we will obviously then determine together with the Board.

Gaurav Jain from Barclays. So just continuing on the topic of future cash allocation. So you have spoken of CapEx and dividends, share repurchases. You can also do M&A, and we are seeing a lot of consolidation happen in the sector. So if your balance sheet is also getting unleveled, then I guess one question will be that could you use our balance sheet for any transaction. So how do you see the M&A landscape right now?

Well, I think it's kind of described over there. We will be pursuing opportunities of growth organically in the space we have identified. But we also consider inorganic opportunities there in that space, not -- let's say, not pursuing tactical actions or opportunistic things. For us, the requisites are sizable based on long-term value creation opportunities and if it is an inorganic activity it has got to come with a sizable value creation through synergies, not just pursuing addition for the sake of adding something bigger that doesn't create value.

And if I could ask a follow-up. Will there be a value to the -- is there a size, maximum size of acquisitions beyond which you will not pursue?

I would say that we've always kept the balance sheet in good order. We'll keep the balance sheet in good order. So that is potentially providing a criteria. I don't know Tapio, if you have more to offer.

Well, maybe let's put it this way that the slides that I kind of showed in terms of the capital allocation, then any bigger M&A is a little bit kind of additional look at it or additional dimension, so to speak. Of course, we have done complementary bolt-on acquisitions in the Raflatac pace, and there are plenty of potential targets for that. So that's certainly something that we continue to pursue and is well within that framework that I showed. But then if we are looking at a bigger potential kind of a case should that become available, then obviously, in that sort of a situation, you will be acquiring some cash flow and EBITDA as well. So it's financial from that point of view. And maybe the last point to make is that the reason why we want to keep headroom to our net debt to EBITDA 2x is that the rare occasions when the stars are aligned for a bigger acquisition that makes financial and strategic sense. Obviously, it's not in our control. So to have that option available for us as well. Having a strong balance sheet, obviously, is key or has always been the key for us.

Let's take from the background.

My name is Olly Anibaba. I work for a primary research firm called Third Bridge based in London. On UPM's net debt-to-EBITDA ratio, how does that compare to close competitors in the market? Also, given the high capital intensity of the renewable fibers and decarbonization solutions segments, is there room to maneuver in terms of increasing it and by how much?

Yes, maybe I can comment on that as well. Excellent question. And of course, let's say, different companies perhaps have a little bit different take on it. We have -- let's say, our way of thinking about it to the point that you made that we are in a relatively capital-intensive part of the value chain, whether it's pulp or energy or, let's say, the biochemicals, biofuels. That's why we believe that it's important to have, let's say, an investment grade rating our balance sheet. And we believe that with this sort of financial policy, we will sort of stay comfortably within investment-grade rating. So that is let's say, our kind of fundamental belief as far as the balance sheet and rating is concerned, we don't try to target a certain rating by any rating agency, but let's say, we think that by doing this, we'll be comfortably investment grade. Of course, let's say, again, if there's, for instance, a very profitable acquisition somewhere out there or whatever, there can be some room to maneuver around the 2x net debt to EBITDA as long as we credibly can sort of say and show that we can get quickly back to that below 2x net debt to EBITDA. So we do have, I would say, quite sizable financial capacity.

Let's move on now and you will hear more about the businesses. So you will hear more about the growth opportunities, and we will have a kind of second set of Q&A after that. So next, we will go to the second part of our presentations, so go into the growth businesses, and we will start with a short highlight on biodiversity and then into the renewable fibers. [Presentation]

Well, good afternoon, and welcome also on my behalf. My name is Aki Temmes, responsible for UPM Fibers BA. And during the coming 15 minutes, I will talk to you about performance and expansion in our renewable fibers, i.e., our pulp business, first, start with demand-supply outlook, then talk a bit about our position in the pulp market and then we take a deeper look to our Finland operations and Uruguay operations. So we sell our products to a wide variety of end users. More than 80% of our sales are going to growing end-use segments such as tissue, specialty papers and packaging value chain. We see very robust demand outlook for pulp. Of course, following, as Massimo said earlier, following GDP growth, we see a stronger growth potential in eucalyptus and hardwood pulp than in the softwood. Of course, let's say, the megatrends that are driving the growth are familiar to us. Urbanization, growing middle class e-commerce, replacing plastics, aging population amongst the others. Maybe one data point in China based on the China Tissue Association, the tissue consumption per capita was 4.5 kilos in 2013. In 2023, it was 8.8 kilos per person. So more than 8% annual growth and the tissue segment is roughly half of the market pulp market in China. Softwood, we see more flat, but we still see that softwood has a strong position in the pulp market because of the quality properties. It has, as an example, strength properties. So more than 1 million tonnes of growth per annum. Then, of course, there has been historical exits in the pulp market. And of course, there will be also in the future. So that confirms that our view is that there is room for 1 big new modern pulp mill per year. Then if we take a look to the supply side, of course, Mill is now ramping up. We ramped up Paso de los Toros last year. There are different rumors and growth prospects in the market pulp supply side, but no final investment decisions made yet. And based on our experience, it takes roughly 3 years from final investment decision to ramp up of the mill. So therefore, we see that there won't be, let's say, material supply increase before 2027. APP is building a mill in Indonesia, but it's still very unclear that how much of that will be integrated and how much will be in the market producing market pulp. So good demand supply balance expected to continue during the coming years. Then how do we respond to that? We have strong global presence. As already said, we are #1 as a multi-fiber supplier. And it means that we have both eucalyptus and Northern grades. We have very strong competitiveness and sustainability focus. We are #3 as a market pulp supplier. And in addition to our 2 production platforms in Finland and in Uruguay, we have global direct sales in all the key strategic pulp markets. In China, in Europe, in South America, and we have recently established our presence also in the U.S. in connection with Paso de los Toros ramp up. We have very strong confidence on strong returns over the cycles, and that has a lot to do with the Uruguay operations and our eucalyptus business competitiveness. And therefore, we confirm that the return on capital employed target of 14% is a valid target for us being such a capital-intensive business. Then looking to the future biostreams is an opportunity for us. Profitable pulp business enables biostreams such as lignin biogenic CO2 that could be raw materials for the new European businesses in the future. So then let's move to Finland. Finland has been important for us in the past. It will be important for us also in the future. We have a very strong focus on profitability and value maximization in Finland. During the past decade, we have had really focused on short payback investments in Finland, and we have been taking good care of our mills. And that means that we have actually competitive mills in Finland, and we are not sitting on excessive capital employed which in the current business environment provides us strategic flexibility. We've been talking about the wood supply-demand situation and tightness already today. And yes, that's the reality. After Russia's invasion in Ukraine, the import from Russia stopped. In addition, there has been investments in Finland increasing the wood demand in Finland, and that has led to significantly increased wood prices. And of course, in a way, thinking -- finding a balance that would be similar than we had before, Russia's invasion, it will require either change in wood supply dynamics i.e., Russian wood supply would come back or then it will require industry restructuring. We have a very strong focus on competitiveness as said already, competitiveness, of course, about our assets, but it's also wood basket and the whole wood supply chain and related activities and margin management. As we speak, of course, many of you may have noticed, we have already announced that we are taking downtime in Finland at our Kaukas mill at our Kymi mill, roughly 3 weeks on both mills to avoid the most expensive marginal wood sources and the least profitable accounts. We believe that we are going to be strong in the future in Finland. And of course, we have, as a company, a very strong track record of the business turnaround. But let's then move to Uruguay and start our journey by watching a video. [Presentation]

Good, very impressive platform. And of course, looking forward to meet many of you in Uruguay at the end of November. Uruguay, we have really world-class platform there already today. Despite of the fact that we are still in an optimization phase in Paso de los Toros what comes to cost optimization. Our competitiveness comes from 3 key sources. Of course, plantations and wood supply being the one, best available technologies being the second, which is, of course, our mills; and then efficient logistics, the third key source for competitiveness. If I start from the plantations, we started planting activities in 1990 in Uruguay. And at the same time, we started eucalyptus R&D activities. And since then, our plantation productivity measured by tonnes per hectare of land have increased by 80%. The trees we are planting today are expected to deliver 10% to 20% better productivity compared to the trees we are harvesting today. So there's plenty of potential. We have also been working a lot in our plantations, plantation operations efficiency and inbound supply chain efficiency. And actually, during the past decade, we've been able to more than offset the inflation in Uruguay. In addition, by year 2027 we are targeting to reach 80% share of our wood coming from UPM controlled sources, which will, of course, reduce our, let's say, exposure on market wood and it will, of course, further optimization. Best available technologies is the second source of competitiveness. Of course, 2 modern single fiber line mills with plenty of potential. I will talk a bit more about that on the coming slide. Competitive mill concept, both, let's say, chemicals concept and energy concept are very competitive ones. And then the biostreams, of course, as a future potential. Then the outbound logistics, our direct connection from mill to the port and our own port terminal are, of course, setting a foundation for our competitive outbound logistics. And we are aiming there to reach full capacity. I mean the railway transport from mill to port by the end of the year, of course, which will provide us another step towards the target cash cost level. All the activities that I was mentioning have resulted in significant improvement in our competitiveness over time. So we have reached roughly 6% annual cost reduction level in real terms, which is visible on the right-hand side of the slide. And we are very confident that with these actions, we are getting towards the target cash cost level of USD 280 per tonne during the coming years. Then what comes to our growth ambition. In 2009, we acquired Fray Bentos. It was 1.1 million tonnes mill. In 2019, we reached the capacity of 1.3 million tonnes. Now let's come to this year. We reached the nominal capacity at Paso de los Toros just before the maintenance shutdown in June. So in practice, we have reached the 3.4 million tonnes capacity in Uruguay. We are aiming higher. We are aiming to 4 million tonnes, and we are actually very confident that we can reach 3.6 million, 3.7 million tonnes of capacity. Going beyond that will most likely require debottlenecking investments. And then if the attractive returns are there, of course, we will push those forward. We also believe in growth prospects in market pulp space, and therefore, we are developing the new organic growth options. When those are realistic, I would say that it takes roughly a decade or 10 years before the organic growth options will materialize, but those would take the business again to the next level what comes to the size. Then key takeaways. So we have very robust business foundations. Demand-supply balance is supporting our growth ambitions, strong focus on profitability and competitiveness. We confirm the rocket target of 14% as a valid target for us. In Finland, we have a strong focus on value maximization as I said already. In Uruguay, it's, of course, about taking or increasing the capacity going towards target level of USD 280 per tonne cash costs and then further down the road in the future, of course, biostreams are or can be an interesting opportunity for us. Thank you.

All right. Let's move on exciting world of advanced materials. I'm here with Tim Kirchen from Raflatac, Jaakko Nikkilä from Specialty Papers and Mika Kekki from Plywood. What these businesses have in common is that the markets are quite fast growing. In most cases, faster than GDP growth rates in the market as a trend line. UPM has a strong market position in most of the market segments, global #1 or global #2, in some cases, European #1. These are sizable businesses, combined, represented 1/3 of UPM revenue over the past 5 years. These are less capital intensive. And therefore, as you can see here, a quite impressive returns on capital employed as a track record. So this is one focus area for growth going forward, as we heard from Massimo and Tapio. So from that perspective, Tim, what's our success factor in Raflatac? What makes us win?

Yes. Thank you. So what gives us the right to win for Raflatac, our core markets, but also as we target geographical expansion and expansion into adjacencies, for example, specialty tapes markets or graphics market is really our global reach, our global customer access, our market access and then the scale we have. We are globally the #2 which gives us a structurally -- a structural competitive advantage. And of course, also the material signs, know-how that we bring into the material markets. We do have a strong global network of lamination sites and also distribution terminals and of course, a strong sales network. And we also bring to the materials markets, we play in a strong technology know-how and also adhesive technology, which allows us to play in a broad range of end users, including very demanding end users. And then we also bring a unique expertise when it comes to end-to-end, thinking about sustainability materials. And even today, we have a leading position to provide the market with sustainable material solutions for carbon reduction, carbon reduction options but also material solutions for circularity at scale and at low cost.

All right. And in specialty papers, some similar aspects we are very well established globally. We have been around for many years. We have built this global leadership position in some of the products over the years. Have been investing very systematically, have been also developing the customer relationships, the co-creation concept very systematically when developing these solutions to our customers. But basically, it is about this being a global player, having a very local access also and being committed to the business over the years with capabilities to develop products and services.

And then in the plywood industry, really the secret sauce for us is this long term and very loyal customers who are then valuing our high-quality products, they're appreciating also the high responsibility of what we have and then these are kind of dependable supply that we have in our plywood both for the big distributors and the industrial accounts we have. We have 4 focus end uses. I think that the most fascinating one is this LNG end use, where we are seeing a huge boom ongoing at the moment in the market. There, in the seas, there are 801 vessels, sailing. And those vessels have been built in 55 years' time. And now the new order stock for the next 5 years is 362 vessels. So in half of the time, there are vessels coming more -- much, much more than earlier. And UPM Plywood is actually the market leader in this LNG grade end uses as we have supplied some 50% of the older vessels supplied so far. So this kind of LNG grade is very superior advanced material from our plywood supply to customers.

All of you mentioned product development and sustainability. So what is really the kind of -- what's the role of innovation and sustainability in business success?

For specialty papers, it is like a prerequisite that -- it's expected from us. There is a lot of pull from the market. Brand owners have made their commitments. They expect solutions from the suppliers, and this is really other than -- if we wouldn't have it, so then we wouldn't have the business. And the regulatory development is also kind of showing direction and especially actively in Europe. And this is also the part that we are spending quite a bit of time on understanding and also then communicating with the value chain in order to make the right choices then. But basically, it's also covering products services way of operating. We have great support from UPM R&D centers, both in Finland and China. So this is the base.

Yes, maybe to build on what Jaakko mentioned. So the way we approach innovation at Raflatac on the material side is innovation for sustainability on the one hand and then innovation for targeted end-use functionality on the other hand. And with respect to sustainability, we are seeing a strong pull for sustainable materials, especially in the European market, materials that enable CO2 reduction and also materials that enable circularity. And just to give you a few concrete examples here. So if you think about the plastic recycling stream, think about primary packaging your PET bottles, for example, the label actually plays a really critical role. In the recycling stream, it has to be able to separate from the material. So you have a clean plastic recycling stream, a clean end product. And here, we have developed a leading adhesive technology that allows for the material to separate easily in the stream, and we bring it to the market at scale and at low cost. And maybe to give you another example on the sustainability side, on the sustainability innovation, but also value chain partnership, that's our RafCycle program, which we offer today in North America but also in Europe. And what it is, is we have built an ecosystem together with our customers, together with end users and also recyclers and essentially, what we do is we collect the liner at the point of usage to release liner and we feed it into a recycling stream to enable circularity. And what's neat about this project -- this product is that it allows -- it gives us now scale as well in Europe, and you see an increase in purchasing loyalty because our customers and end users are now relying on it to show it in their sustainability scorecards. And then maybe just one additional example for innovation, for functionality, which is our recent development in the space of direct thermal linerless products and that is a product which serves both as a sticky receipt, but also as an information carrier, for example, in the hospitality industry. So think about when you go to your Starbucks in the morning and you order a cup of coffee. So now typically, it has a little label on the side with your name on it and also with the type of coffee you ordered. And what is key for us in this market and the key for success for us is the adhesive technology. So we have developed an adhesive technology that make sure that the label sticks on the cup of coffee, whether it's hot or cold or whether there is condensation on the cup, but it's also removable. And that's really our right to win and innovate in this space.

So innovation is also very important in plywood industry. And therefore, we are having the widest R&D organization in the plywood organization in UPM. All the innovations in the material science that is really enabling us to improve our material performance according to the customer needs. There's one example, prime example here would be the UPM proprietary WISA BioBond gluing technology where we are replacing 50% of the fossil phenol by wood-based lignin. And that is then really improving our CO2 footprint. And already today, our plywood is actually 5x more storing this biogenic CO2 than what are the emissions in the production. So really, responsibility is the core of our business.

As Massimo showed in his presentation, these businesses are actually the most global businesses in UPM, very wide geographical presence. So what are the kind of growth opportunities from a geographical point of view?

Yes. So if you look at Raflatac, if you look at our current geographical mix, we do have a strong position and market-leading position in Europe. We do expect the European market to go back to pre-pandemic growth rates of roughly 2% to 3% for label materials. If we shift our view to the Americas, which is my home market, my personal home market, we have achieved a quite strong position in the market. We are a strong #2, but we still have plenty of headroom to continue to grow and also improve our mix in the Americas and North America for us will be a strong growth focus, both from an organic growth side, but also targeted acquisitions. And then also what we're going to do in our core markets, we're going to continue to sharpening our competitiveness as well. So we put ourselves in a strong winning position to capture market growth as markets are recovering. And our goal here is to be in line with the best-in-class when it comes from business mix, cost position but also profitability expectations. If you look at Asia, we do have a strong position today in Southeast Asia and also in Oceania. We recently expanded our presence in Japan and also in South Korea. If we look at China, we have a strong position in high-value segments. For example, we are one of the leading material providers in the RFID space, and here, we're also in a strong position to capture market growth as markets are recovering. And then we also, for Raflatac, have opportunities to expand our presence, for example, in India, which is a strongly growing label market, roughly 10% CAGR, but also in Brazil, which is a large label market and we're currently underrepresented. So plenty of growth opportunities for us.

And in Specialty Papers, so now it's about capturing the market recovery, especially in Europe and Americas. We have always been a strong player in Europe. We plan to be so in the future. We have been serving the U.S. market from our European assets for many decades. This will continue. We are planning to grow in Americas also. And then from market growth point of view, Asia is the strongest growing market, and we are very well positioned there. We have a mill in China, which can serve both Chinese market and also the APAC market. I have personally been more than 10 years of my career in China and Asia and there, the development happens very fast also. And this is a place where we want to be also in order to then show direction for the rest of the markets. We can learn a lot also from that fast development.

Yes, and UPM Plywood, we are very strong in Europe, but we are the biggest plywood producer here with our seven plywood mills what we have at the moment. However, we see also growth opportunities in Asia, namely South Korea, in the LNG grade plywood. And therefore, we are always looking for opportunities to increase the output in that grade, not meaning new plywood mills for birch, but how to optimize the current birch plywood mills that we have at the moment. Then also the North America is a bit untapped opportunity for us and we think that going forward with our focused offering, we can capture the share of that niche market as well for UPM Plywood.

Now in all of your businesses, there are interesting adjacent markets that offer synergies and further growth opportunities. But let's take a couple of examples. So Tim, what's so exciting about Graphic Solutions?

Yes. Well, this is very exciting. The graphics market and graphic material market, the way we think about it, it's already a large addressable market for us. We're talking about roughly EUR 4 billion annual revenue in the market. And it's a market that is growing at above 5% per year, driven by outdoor advertising, driven by digital printing applications, but also newer applications such as vehicle wrapping, where we're seeing fast growth. When we look at the industry landscape in the graphic space, we see that it's still quite fragmented. So that's a good opportunity for us to build our global scale and also pick good technologies that really will help us to become a global player. So we see good opportunities for bolt-on acquisitions. We also see from a profitability profile that graphics is an attractive market for us, end users in the graphic space are typically more demanding. So we're seeing EBITDA margin levels between 15% and 20%. And then our ambition in the graphic space is to become a global #3 in this space within the time frame of the next 5 years. And then, of course, we have now made two acquisitions, the first one 2 years ago with AMC in Germany, which has gotten us into the space and then we followed up now with the Grafityp acquisition just recently in Belgium, which really complemented our technology in adhesive portfolio for the graphic space. And then what makes this place also interesting, as Massimo mentioned, there are synergies we can capture both on the sourcing side, from the operations side, but really leveraging our global customer reach.

Yes. Specialty Papers, we have entered the flexible packaging space. So what's happening there?

Well, yes, so there -- it's all about replacing plastics in flexible packaging, and like I said, there is a strong pull from the market. There is a lot of commitments that brand owners have made in order to find this renewable and recyclable solutions. So there, it's all about the co-creation. There is no ready-made solutions yet, everybody is quite active on that space and developing these solutions. It takes always time when you have to develop a new product and qualify it and scale it up, but there is a huge amount of opportunities. And fiber-based materials in flexible packaging have a very small share at the moment. So even if the flex pack market would be growing some 2% to 4%, so then the kind of replacing plastic part can multiply that easily. And again, we are a global player, globally present, so we can learn from each market and copy paste these best practices. So we are really excited about that.

Great. So let's sum up. So Mika, what are the growth steps in your mind?

Yes. We have a very clear three-step approach here. First priority is to get current seven plywood mills in the full run after the very steep decline in the construction market that we have experienced. Already with that, we can increase our volumes and profitability remarkably. Then of course, we have an option for organic growth whether it's this kind of bolt-on type of investment or greenfield investment. And thirdly, new geographies are something that we are looking for. Then there are new wood species also available and then this kind of new adjacencies to the portfolio.

In Specialty Paper. So it's now, first of all, getting everything out from the lines what we already have. We have a good focused area where we are planning to stay regarding customer segments and products. But then developing the capabilities of our flexible production platform, this is the #1 step. Within UPM, we have Communication Papers and their business is in decline. There is some paper machines that are getting empty, which we can then convert and utilize for Specialty Papers growth. And then naturally, we are all the time reviewing also these M&A options.

And then for Raflatac, I think we are in an excellent position to drive growth. We are strengthening our competitiveness to capture market growth as the markets are recovering. We are also driving forward our geographical expansion in North America, but also in markets where we are currently underrepresented, for example, Brazil, India, Southeast Asia. And then we're also looking at adjacencies. So we have made big steps now in graphics and we're going to continue making steps in the graphics material markets, but we're also not shy in looking at other adjacencies, for example, the specialty tape market.

Thank you. And next, we will take a look at our UPM's climate commitments and then dive deeper into the decarbonization solutions. [Presentation]

So ladies and gentlemen, so I'm happy to give you some more insight on our decarbonization solutions in the next, let's say, roughly 15 minutes. What is it about? So it's about energy, it's about biochemicals, biofuels but we also have started to explore more about Power-to-X. Our solutions addressing sectors which cover 75% roughly or even more of today's GHG emissions, So it's quite a huge field. And I think electrification options are obvious. But as more as you move to the chemical side, I would say, the more demanding it gets. Starting with energy. Our energy portfolio today, our energy generation capacity based on fossil-free energy is 12 terawatt hours after the start-up of Olkiluoto and its reliable nuclear power, but also hydropower assets. The outlook in terms of demand is significant because digitalization, AI, data centers also electrification of quite many applications will lead to a quite strong growth in the upcoming years. So we have -- we are showing here actually the Nordics or the Finland-based demand. And we believe we are strongly positioned with our baseload capacities because all new electric capacities which come in are typically renewable, which are very volatile. So the baseload capacity has, of course, a stronger or at least a higher value. Starting -- continuing with biofuels. Biofuels is a mandated business, it's a regulated business. And I think regulation in terms of getting the transition accelerated. And based on that, there is a clear demand outlook. If you compare '25, we talk about 6 million tonnes next year in terms of mandated demand for SAF+ road fuels. It's already 5x more in 2030. So in our aspect, the plant demand is actually outgrowing the plant capacity. So we see quite a positive outlook in front of us, and I will come back also shortly to the actual situation. Biofuels business, and I think Massimo already mentioned it, it's not about the core technology where the hydrocarbons are produced. It's about the starting point. The starting point is about what kind of feedstocks can we use, are the feedstocks in our own ecosystem and can these feedstocks be prepared to a raw material for the core technology of hydro treatment. This is how Lappeenranta has been set up. I will come soon to that, but this is also how we look on Rotterdam to make sure that our portfolio gets bigger and our market exposure, market dependency is somewhat limited. So meaning the differentiation point here is own feedstock but also own IPR, own proprietary technologies to convert it into the right form. Looking back to Lappeenranta. Lappeenranta has been starting 2015. I would say it was or is a success story for UPM. It was the first business we have started from scratch with the own concept, with own technologies and also building up new markets. Looking back at the last 5 years, we are today on a level of 135% of the nominal capacity. EBITDA average in the last 5 years was 27%, EBIT 20% and ROCE 33%. So it's quite strong. In the year '23, you can already see that there is some deterioration because, of course, this has been entering towards '24 and we have seen quite heavy market distortions starting already last year with high import loads from China, partly fraudulent imports, partly also fraudulent certificates. So I think this has been more or less cleaned up, and now we are moving towards, I would say, a more healthy situation within the next, let's say, quarters and also starting with next year. Biofuels, so meaning our first priority is, of course, to get biofuels operations back on track, what you have seen earlier. And then moving forward, our basic engineering for Rotterdam is approaching completion. So our technologies have been chosen and we have decided to continue our preparations as we communicated some weeks ago for the feedstock part. So we will test our new technology in a wider range and a bigger scale with a wider portfolio of feedstocks to make sure that our base, our competitive base will get even stronger as we are positioned today. Moving to biochemicals. I briefly would like to explain what is it all about. We built a new plant close to Leipzig in Leuna in Germany. Our raw material is beechwood, hardwood, we convert beechwood into three elements: C5 sugar, C6 sugar and lignin. We convert C6 sugar into glycols, which you can see here on the left-hand side, and we convert lignin into renewable filler, what you can see here is this pellets, more or less more kind of pelletizing. These are quite two different products. Glycols are used, here are some examples. I think PET is a very famous example typically 30%, 40% of PET bottle consists out of glycols. It's used in car cooling, battery cooling. Today, our electric car needs around 8 to 12 liters glycol per car, even combustion cars, of course, still also need cooling material. Then also textiles. For the polyester production, some 30%, 40% of glycols are needed from the amassed share. What's not shown here is shoe soles, polyurethane shoe soles typically is one of the end users. I will come to one reference later, but also in cosmetics. Glycols, it's a drop-in solution. So meaning the customers can take it, the molecule structure is the same and just replace it one to one or added to the formulation. So it's very easy to use, and it's just reducing your GHG footprint. It's different on this filler, with the renewable filler, we replace carbon black. Carbon black has a strong CO2 footprint, and there are not many alternatives available globally to replace it. It's a functional filler. It's a so-called performance chemical and customers have to change their formulation when they use our product. So that makes the entry more difficult. But once you're in, it's very clear how it works. All plastics and rubber applications you know from your daily life, which are black, contain carbon black. Plastics, a couple of percentage, rubber typically between 30% and 40%. So if you take this tire, around 30% plus/minus contains actually -- from the total weight contains renewable fillers or carbon black. It's very important also to adjust more or less the use and attributes from a product. And it's not only about replacing CO2 contained products. Our renewable filler also has other applications. It's lighter. So let's wait and also has -- let's say, has effect on the conductivity. Today, thinking about the secular economy, recycling looks tomorrow, it's not possible with carbon black to automatically measure polypropylene or polyethylene bottles. You can't see it from here because carbon black is absorbing infrared. With renewable fillers, you can go to the sorting plant and distinguish between ethylene and propylene, which are totally different recycling streams. So there are a lot of positive attributes which really increase the value for the customer besides the pure CO2 footprint. Five facts you should know about biochemicals business. It's not regulation-driven, it's brand-driven. Big brands have defined net 0 targets and timelines, and they are more or less creating the pull to get products for the market to help them to get decarbonized. Chemicals business will not be able to transform based on 100% new renewable materials. There must be a high share of recycling. And that's how chemical industry is also describing it. I think also here, PET bottles are a good example, most likely recycling share between 70% and 90% on long term, but you have to substitute the difference. And the substitution of the difference on some gaps of the losses has to happen via bio-based materials and that's where we are actually in. As already said, it's not only about high GHG reduction. It's also about biogenic feedstock, about feedstocks, which are not in the food chain, about being certified and traceable sustainable but also giving additional performance, which I just shared coming from the renewable fillers. Number four, partnerships, extremely important. So especially this application-driven end users on the filler side, on the performance chemicals, you need partners, you have to develop the products and you have to create references. That's why we have quite, I would say, relevant partnerships in place, for example, with VAUDE in the textile industry and also with Nokian just recently shared in the tire industry. Last but not least, markets, the Bio as a MEG market globally today describes a demand of around 35 million tonnes. Filler or carbon black market is more than 60 million tonnes. The small dots you can see here are the options available today beside us. So it's more or less telling there are not many options available. In cyclical market, it's actually only one option which comes from the sugarcane. So touching a bit the food supply chain on the carbon black market, it's more or less about recycling, which is quite, I would say, strong and heavy process. So we are really entering a market which has huge opportunities and it's really also missing of other options or alternatives. Coming to Leuna, and I think it also was mentioned before, so this is not a pulp mill, and this is not a paper mill. So we start up a chemical plant, which will be started sequentially so at this point of time, we have maybe commissioned 20% or close to 20% of the site. We expect a sequential start-up by end of this year and most likely in the latter part of quarter 1 next year or beginning of quarter 2, the whole site will run in an integrated way. So it will take months -- this is also what we have been calculating from the beginning, also with the experience from Lappeenranta. And the reason is it has to be done very precisely. There are high safety and security requirements. You have to do a lot of checks before the cleaning must be perfect. The documentation must be 100%. The pressure test, I would say, also together with the notified body, has to be done in all the areas so it's a long sequence where I would say everything has to be in place before you really can start fueling the site. So that's the reason it takes some time, and that's exactly based on what we share also here. Sequential products start end of this year, 100% capacity we expect by '27, so this is also a bit what we experienced in Lappeenranta, but we also see from other projects in the chemical or petrochemical industry. We expect moving to positive EBIT in '27 and our long-term ROCE target has not changed and remains at 14%. Last slide, to sum it up. In biofuels, I said, Lappeenranta back to profits and then a strong focus on our feedstock optionalities. In Biochemicals, ramp-up, prove before we continue to scale. We already have initiated a team now working on possible next locations. But as soon as we have the proof of our, let's say, ramp-up and commercial viability, we plan to move to think about the next refinery. Power-to-X, we have started to explore. We have values in our house, so meaning CO2-free energy, but also biogenic CO2. So the ingredients for Power-to-X and that's something we have started some 1.5, 2 years ago to explore where we develop and once we have a better picture of what makes sense for us, then most likely, we will come out with something. That's where we are. So I would say quite a strong growth path and quite some, let's say, possibilities and capabilities. Thank you. [Presentation]

All right. Now we are ready for our second Q&A session. And to have some level of balance, I'll take the first question from online. So this is for Jaakko. So looking for growth in Specialty Papers. So what does it mean? Do you need to invest in new capacity, what does that look like?

Well, we need to be successful in developing these new products also and developing the new businesses. And then that is the kind of so-called scale-up part of the business what we are now developing the FlexPack part. But then we are a market leader in -- a global market leader in release base papers and European leader in phase materials. And there is good fundamentals for future growth also. And there, that is also the area where we have been investing in the past. And that is the area where we are kind of continuously developing these alternatives that whether it's by conversion of Comm Papers line or whether it's by just utilizing Comm Papers lines or whether it's then with an M&A but this is like -- so the business in new areas, that has to develop as we are planning the growth business in label side that is expected to grow, and there we need to be ready for the future capacity investments and then all the time considering M&As.

But that's also a good point about utilizing Comm Paper assets because not all Specialty Papers tonnes are reported under Specialty Papers.

Exactly. And this is the kind of a good opportunity for us to develop more kind of higher entry barrier grades for our existing lines, which tend to be smaller. And then this kind of so-called easier specialty grades, we can move for these larger Communication Paper lines and enjoy the economies of scale over there and then at the same time, concentrate on more profitable products on the spec lines.

All right. Let's take -- yes.

Justin Jordan from Davy. I've got two questions, completely different. So firstly, I suppose, referring to Slide 31 for Aki on basically Uruguay, and then a follow-up. But if I start with Slide 31, Aki, you talked about in your presentation, getting to potentially from the existing 3.4 million tonnes of capacity in Uruguay to potentially 3.6 million to 3.7 million without needing debottlenecking which sounded magical. You're sort of talking about essentially adding 200,000 to 300,000 tonnes of additional capacity without -- the inference I drew was without material CapEx required. Could you help me understand how that's possible? And then clearly, would I be right in thinking that would be phenomenally good return on capital employed substantially above 14% on that incremental tonnage.

Yes, it's a good question. And of course, it all boils down to the mill design. Of course, usually, the recovery boiler is the most, let's say, expensive part to debottleneck. And based on our experience, what we have seen so far, we see that there is a potential in that mill to reach, let's say, 2.3 million tonnes, give or take. Of course, we are still in the phase where we are seeking for the bottlenecks. And there could be a need for some smaller investments, but that is, of course, part of the optimization project, but confidence is strong and confidence is there.

And's probably I should have started the question by saying, just congratulations to every UPMer, ramping up Paso de los Toros has been clearly phenomenal progress to date.

Thank you. We are very proud of that.

Yes. Just moving on to Slide 54, a question for Winfried, just regarding Leuna. On Page 54, you talk about EBIT positive in 2027. And clearly, maintaining your longer-term aspiration of getting to a 14% return on capital employed. I don't want to tie you down, but I wouldn't doing my job as an analyst unless I try to. I'm assuming we really should be thinking by probably the end of this decade or something, something like a 2028, '30 in terms of getting to a 14% return on the total investment in Leuna. Is that a sort of a realistic timeline?

I guess it's -- as we stated here on the long run, it's our target on the long run. I think it's not a secret that our CapEx has been remarkably higher than we have started the project. But we also have to see that the prices we assume today are above our business case. And I think we also have done a lot of learnings with our team that there are additional capabilities to utilize our side streams. And also we assume I think it's similar like Aki have said that there's also incremental development on year-on-year basis in the capacity based on the learnings we have from Lappeenranta but also from pulp mills. So we will see, over time, higher capacities. We will see higher value coming from the side streams, and we expect also better sales margins. So in this respect, it's somewhat compensating higher CapEx, but we also have to be realistic, I would say, in the forthcoming years. So it will take some years, as we have stated.

Antti Koskivuori, Danske. Two questions. Continuing the Leuna and EBIT positive for 2027, what should we anticipate for '25 and '26, how the ramp-up should go? And maybe continuing on that, is the view on EBIT contribution from '27 onwards? Is it only technical ramp-up? Or is there something market related to that view?

No, this is technical. So I think it's more or less quite similar to what we have experienced in Lappeenranta. We have assumed this 2 years ramp-up coming to 100%. And I think this full capacity utilization is actually decisive to get also to positive EBIT numbers. So it's more about the volume ramp-up with the experience from Lappeenranta plus from the chemical industry. But I think it's also fair to say this time is also healthy for getting the full grip on the market and to, let's say, get entry into the right market because I think our team has done a really great job on the sales side. We have really screened all possible kind of applications, which -- where we can add additional value. And of course, this has now to materialize. But as I said, I think this '27 then is based on the technical ramp up.

All right. Then another one for Aki. On biostreams opportunities. So you mentioned those quite often. Could you a little bit elaborate on that? Where do you see the biggest opportunities? And what's the time span? When should we anticipate something concrete coming out of this?

Yes, of course, that links a lot to Winfried's businesses and what he was saying. So in a way, biostreams for European fibers is an opportunity, and of course, it requires that we have very strong and profitable pulp business. Then we position ourselves as a raw material supplier. So whenever there are good business cases, of course, we are then ready to provide the raw materials, be it lignin or be it biogenic CO2. But of course, it will take time. It's not something that will take place next year or year after. So of course, let's say, the time span is longer.

I would actually like to add to what Winfried was discussing about the ramp-up. So one thing to kind of remember is that like Tapio was presenting earlier on that we already have the kind of fixed cost of the biofuels operation in our P&L today. Like Tapio was showing, it was EUR 36 million in 6 months in the first half of the year. So yes, there is ramp-up impacts coming on. But actually, we already bear the fixed cost today.

Ephrem Ravi from Citigroup. Three questions for three different people. Firstly for Aki. In terms of the cost at $280 per tonne, the other big mega mill that's ramping up right now, Cerrado of Suzano, is claiming $82 per tonne cash cost. It's almost -- so your's will be almost 3x theirs. Is there lots of cushion in terms of the $280, i.e., you can get it down further? Or is there other value that you add with this Paso de los Toros to kind of get a return which is similar to Cerrado?

Well, that's a very good question. And I think the cash cost definition is, of course, very company specific. And those are not comparable. Of course, we don't have full visibility on how our competitors are defining the cash cost development. I would say that in general, both Uruguay and Brazil are very competitive platforms for pulp production. And most likely, there are mills in Brazil that are more competitive than our, let's say, Uruguay platform, but there are also mills that are less competitive. But I would say that Uruguay, Brazil, when it comes to competitiveness, they are pretty close to each other.

And for Winfried, in terms of the Rotterdam option and the technology that you're testing out and the IP that you're putting that in, I mean, I'm just wondering as a layman, what is your right to win versus someone like Neste, who may be having similar kind of operations. So is it radically different? Or is it some small tweak that makes your process different?

I think it's quite simple. I would assume Neste is not owning any feedstock. But I don't want to comment competitors in this field. But our point is what we have said here is we built on own feedstock sources, not building up the full capacity, which is also not the case in Lappeenranta, but we have started in Lappeenranta with having grip on more than 50% of the feedstock supply from our own house. And I think here, as Aki mentioned, we have big sources from pulp. Lignin was mentioned already today, but we also have other wood residues like bark and sawdust and even others and they have to be converted into a substance which can be hydro-treated. And this is what we are working on. And this differentiates us from others. So it's the ownership on feedstocks, it's market independence for a certain amount of feedstock that's the differentiation point.

And then we have the kind of carbon farming concepts where the same technology is giving [Technical Difficulty] as well.

This is what -- has not been shared today but of course, we are working since years on carbon farming. We also accelerate this part. And I would say our plantation experience is helping us a lot to get also successful on this side.

And maybe a question for Tapio because I couldn't get a chance to ask him on that. On a slide that you had very well prepared, for the EUR 8 billion or EUR 9 billion cash from the last 5 years versus EUR 8 billion. You also -- if you generate a 15% return on Paso de los Toros, that will be another $3 billion on top. So effectively, you're talking about close to EUR 12 billion to EUR 13 billion over the next 5 years unless the existing business depletes massively. And you only have about EUR 2.5 billion, EUR 3 billion of net debt. So even if you pay off your net debt completely, you will still have a lot more cash. So what am I missing here? I mean is it a significant deterioration in the existing business? Or are you just being super conservative?

Well, I think we sort of discussed that a little bit already earlier. So in that sense, again, let's say, we can -- in preparing for the next investment cycle, obviously, we'll be then having, in a sense, part of the cash flow going into further strengthening the balance sheet in the short term, can share cash with investors, shareholders and then, let's say, to the point we are not obviously indicating in a sense that we would sort of expect a deterioration in the sort of underlying business at hand. Like I said, we have, I would say, quite a good track record in terms of taking care of the asset base and the business base that we have.

Yes. It's Johannes Grunselius, DNB. I have a question on how you think about the markets from your business in Uruguay because most people think about China, I suppose that's where the bulk of the volumes are going. But I recall that you talked about opening up U.S. as a destination for these volumes. Can you elaborate on that?

Yes, that's true. So we have not had -- while we have had a small, let's say, market presence in the U.S. before but in connection with Paso de los Toros ramp-up, we also, let's say, established our presence there and our own sales organization. Of course, big part, China is the big market -- pulp market and will continue to be. So -- but now we are having a presence on all the big markets. And that, of course, enables us also to optimize our sales between these markets over time. So now, of course, U.S. is still relatively small. But of course, we are aiming to grow there during the coming years.

But let's say, next year, would it be fair to assume that you could actually sell a pretty big chunk of your volumes to U.S. and perhaps Europe?

Of course, it's always the question of profitability at the end of the day and, let's say, also balancing the market portfolio. So yes, in a way, it is an option. But of course, we -- let's say, we need to also manage the profitability and see, of course, how different markets are developing.

This is Charlie Muir-Sands from BNP. A couple of questions, please. Firstly, on the progress to the $280 per tonne. You mentioned the full operation of the railway, you mentioned reaching 80% wood self-sufficiency. Firstly, could you tell us where the wood self-sufficiency is today? And is it just those two steps? Should we be thinking, by 2027, you reach that cost efficiency target?

Well, I think, first of all, the USD 280 per tonne target. That is something that we are very confident that we are getting there and already, I would say, in '25, '26, we are starting to be close to that target. But in a way, reaching the target is a combination of, of course, the wood costs. It is also, let's say, the productivity development at the mills, and it's about the outbound logistics. So it's a combination of all of these actions that I was mentioning that will take us towards the target.

And then I've got a question more generally about the 40% return on capital, which seems to be like a group-wide target. Maybe it's a question therefore for group management. But given the range of project risk that there seem to be some going into an entirely new market that doesn't really even exist today versus some that are perhaps large in scale, but fairly certain in technology like pulp. How do you think about balancing the risk/reward when you're thinking about that ROCE hurdle? And how should we think about that ROCE hurdle in the context of, for example, buybacks as an alternative? Or are they entirely different decisions?

Yes. Maybe I can comment on that. So first of all, let's say, this sort of return on capital employed target is sort of business specific. So like in Raflatac, for instance, we have been about 20% in return on capital employed. So obviously, less capital-intensive business than pulp or biochemicals. So that's, of course, one sort of dimension. The other, of course, like you referred to in new businesses, we have different risks than, let's say, building a pulp mill. So obviously, we sort of consider that on a kind of a project by project basis. So let's say, that sort of target figure that we publish is obviously not the only metric in a sense that we consider there. Then, of course, let's say, on the sort of return -- let's say, possible return of cash to shareholders, whether it's dividends or share buybacks. Obviously, it is another way in a sense to sort of invest in sort of higher returns coming from the sort of company as a whole and the share price. So there is, of course, that kind of consideration in this capital allocation as well. Do we have a project that is ready to go, where we are confident that we can get the returns? Or is it still more timely to sort of think of other options, strengthening the balance sheet or sharing capital or sharing cash with the shareholders in one way or the other?

That's perhaps a good time to end this discussion and give the room to Massimo for some conclusion.

Well, I started talking about the past, giving you some data about the past. And that is the land of the certainty. You know what was there, what has been achieved, what has been accomplished. Now we want to go a bit in the future, and that is the land of aspirations. And so if I try to portray UPM in a few years from now, I imagine a company that remains a frontrunner in the area of sustainability and responsibility in everything it does. I imagine a company that has even more global footprint than the one that we have already today. I imagine a company that has grown, that is bigger, that has maintained a sizable presence in the graphic business. But meanwhile, has, let's say, extracted the full potential from the investment in Paso de los Toros and the platform in Uruguay through what we call the debottlenecking and potentially through further investment that we have announced the capacity and the profitability there. And maybe, why not, it's going to be thinking or already working to the next big step in the -- in pursuing organic growth in that space. We'll have built on the current positions in the advanced materials space, made them much bigger, much stronger we'll have a nice profitability also. We'll have achieved that through capturing organic growth and through selective target, value-accretive inorganic opportunities. And in the decarbonization solutions, why not, we'll have fully ramped up Leuna and will be working depending on where we put this point in time in the future. We'll be working to scale that market, a presence in that market up and would have done the same in the biofuel business. While capturing the full value, didn't talk a lot about that, but the full value, which is a lot by having a lot of CO2-free energy generated in a very predictable and stable way. And we would have done all of that, let's say, being very disciplined in the way we invest, as we have always been. We would have created a predictable and progressively growing, let's say, profile of earnings, and we will have generated for our investors a robust return and made them participate into this growth through, I think the word that Tapio has utilized, let's say, attractive and predictable stream of dividends potentially integrated with share buyback. This is what our plans aim to build and I look forward to meeting you again over the next weeks or months so that we can share more about our ambitions that I've kind of described and the progress on our plans to turn this ambition into reality. But other than that, I thank you once again for your presence and your attention, and I look forward to meeting you somewhere soon. Mika?

Thank you, everyone, from my behalf as well. Thank you, our online audience for participation. Like Massimo said, we will have plenty of opportunities in the coming weeks and months in our meetings to continue the discussion. For you here on site, we have the opportunity with coffee and tea to continue the discussion here. But before we do that, I ask you to please go to this slide though and give us some feedback. It only takes a minute and we appreciate it. Thank you.