Valeo SE (FR) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
February 25, 2022
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Christophe Perillat-Piratoine
executiveWelcome. Good morning. Thank you very much for being here in Paris or remotely. This morning, we're going to move up together. This morning, I'm going to launch with you a strategic plan, which I call Move Up. It covers the next 4 years, and it will make Valeo stronger, both technologically and financially. I've spent 22 years at Valeo in many different positions. So I know and I love this company. I know the role it will play in tomorrow's mobility, which will be a carbon-free and a safer mobility. I know the potential of our technology. Valeo is not -- it's not a company that's doing some kind of a build-to-print manufacturing. It's a true tech company with 20,000 engineers involved in many different technologies. They have great skills, great expertise. They're doing power electronics; they're doing innovative material; they're doing AI, cybersecurity and many more. This is exactly the technologies that we need to invent tomorrow's mobility. I know as well the passion, I know the commitment of the teams of Valeo and they truly want to change mobility for the better. And I know that the plan I'm going to share with you is achievable. Sharing this plan with you requires transparency. I think this is a mindset. This is my mindset and today is the first step. Moving forward, in the spirit of transparency and consistency, I will come to you on a regular basis, and I will show you our progress. I will show you how we stand using the same KPIs, using the same level of details that I will use today with you. So let me share with you now our strategy. And you see it's going to be very simple. It's going to be very straightforward. Mobility will become carbon-free and will become safer. The technologies that are behind are going to be electrification and ADAS. I say ADAS, it means driving assistance. The growth and the use of these technologies will literally explode in the coming years. Do you want some evidence? The electrification and the ADAS markets are the beginning of a growth that will be, I think, a kind of hyper growth that will last 1 or 2 decades, acceleration that we have never seen before kind of once-a-lifetime acceleration. In only 15 years, the electrification market will reach EUR 200 billion, while the ADAS market will reach EUR 120 billion. Just these 2 markets will triple the current addressable market of Valeo, creating for us a fantastic growth opportunity. So my strategy is clear. And by the way, I think it's not just our strategy, I think it's more than that. I think it's our mission. One is accelerate electrification; two is accelerating ADAS, and I believe will make it happen at the same time. And that's not all because electrification and ADAS support 2 additional trends where Valeo will focus. Third one, lighting everywhere because in a car where electrification and ADAS are present, there's space for more lighting to reinforce brand, to reinforce styling, to reinforce communication. So it means more lighting around the car, it means more lighting inside the car, it means more lighting everywhere. And last, it does reinvent your task inside the car. This is what I call the reinvention of the interior experience. So we will focus on these 4 growth drivers: electrification, ADAS, lighting everywhere and the reinvention of the interior experience. And this will lead us to sales of EUR 27.5 billion in '25. This amount represents an annual growth of 13% for the period '21-'25. And growth means strong operational leverage and strong operational leverage means value creation, I mean to restore profitability, I mean a solid cash generation and I mean reduced debt. So I'm targeting in '25 an EBITDA of 14.5%, an EBIT of 6.5%, a free cash flow generation between EUR 800 million and EUR 1 billion in '25 and a ROCE that will exceed 25%. I have no taboo regarding the evolution of our portfolio. So on the 1 hand, we are accelerating our efforts in electrification through a major strategic transaction. As you know, we announced it February 10. After next July 1, Valeo Siemens eAutomotive will be fully integrated into Valeo, enabling us to accelerate our innovation, accelerate our competitiveness and accelerate our profitability as well. On the other hand, we will sell nonstrategic assets for a value of EUR 500 million. And the debt reduction will translate into a leverage ratio below 0.7 in 2025. So at the end of the plan, at the end of the mover plan, we will be in a good shape. Although I'm fully aware that 6.5% EBIT is not the end of the road. So we will move up. We will move up Valeo to make it stronger, both technologically and financially. And in 2025, when the acceleration of electrification and ADAS market are there, where Valeo will be in a very strong place, we'll be ready to profit from a decade of hyper growth of its market. So if you believe, as I do, that the future of the mobility industry is more than automotive; if you believe that the future of automotive is carbon-free and safe; if you believe, as I do, that electrification and ADAS will transform mobility then you should believe, as I do, in Valeo. During this presentation, we will take a quick look back at our performance in '21, then I will explain how each Valeo business will contribute to the Move Up plan. And finally, I will walk you through our guidance for '22, our outlook for '25 and our ambition for 2030. Then we'll have time for questions that I will handle with my team here in this room. So let's begin with a quick look back at 2021. Our financial performance in '21 shows great resilience in an environment that has been truly extremely challenging marked by, as you know, very severe shortage of semiconductors. We reported consolidated sales of EUR 7.3 billion in '21. This is up 6% compared to 2020 and that includes EUR 14.1 billion in OE sales. Our order intake amounted to EUR 22.1 billion for the year. I think it clearly highlights the momentum, the business momentum that we have because it's 1.5x the sales. Our EBITDA came at EUR 2.3 billion, which is 13.4% that reached the high end of our target range, in line with the guidance. And this is thanks to the operating performance that we had under very strict control of our cost. Our EBIT reached EUR 699 million, which represents 4% of our sales. Now the cash. In '21, we decided to voluntarily increase our inventories during the year. It was decided in order to supply all our customers without interruption, despite the semiconductor crisis. And this, combined with the extreme volatility of the customer orders, famous stop and goes, and the disruptions in the sea freight, it had a negative impact on the free cash flow generation, which in total led to EUR 292 million of free cash flow generation, slightly below our expectations. Well, at the end of the day, we are proud that we were able to supply all our customers without interruption and we have received from them many thanks, many praise for the efforts that we've been doing in '21. And I think it's to show how Valeo is a trusted partner to our customers in the transition to come. So in light of these results at the next shareholders' meeting, the Board of Directors will propose the payment of a dividend of EUR 0.35 per share, which is up 17% versus last year. In '21, we also streamlined our fixed cost. I think it's extremely important, especially in the context that we have now. Our breakeven point decreased by EUR 1.1 billion. Our aftermarket business delivered astonishing dynamic performance with sales of EUR 2.1 billion, which was up 18% versus last year. And in parallel, our ESG strategy has allowed us to secure advantageous financing terms. I mean, we have become the first European player in the auto industry to issue sustainability-linked bonds. And all these are good achievements. So I think in 2021, we really proved ourselves capable of adapting to the difficult conditions, thanks to a good operating model. So I want to facially thank all the teams of Valeo for their outstanding work in '21 and for having protected our customers all along this challenging year. Now Move Up. Move Up is built first on our strength. It's built on our foundations, which I believe are solid. And I would like to come back on it just a few minutes. By now, you have understood our growth drivers and the 4 business groups of Valeo are involved in this acceleration. All are already positioned to benefit from this ongoing mobility revolution. Electrification. Electrification is about powertrain and it's about thermal. ADAS and interior experience are the home of comfort and driving assistance and the mission of our visibility business group is to put lighting everywhere. And let's not forget about our wiping activity. There's 1 question we are often asked, do we have significant legacy business? The answer is no. No, we have very little exposure to products that are specifically related to internal combustion engines. Such products represent 11% of our sales in '21, and it will go down to 4% in 2030. So we will be quite agile during this transition period. As an element of our foundations, we'd like to come back during a minute on our aftermarket business because during such a dynamic transformation, having a resilient, having a profitable, having a cash-generating aftermarket business, it's a true assets. Our aftermarket business is already bigger than what it was prepandemic level. And it's very much supported by a very successful digitalization plan that really bearing fruit. As you can see, our sales on e-commerce are increasing very quickly, and we know much better than before our end customers. And who are end customers? They are the mechanics, they are the workshops and now we talk to them. So Valeo in such a challenging environment for us, it's a major, major strength to have this aftermarket business. Another strength, that you know it for a long time, is our customer portfolio, which is very balanced across the world. Asia and notably, China are continuing to grow, and this is very positive. And we are also working with many new companies, a lot of logos on this slide. New automakers, such as new players in autonomous shuttles and delivery droids such as Meituan or Nvidia. New tech players like Waymo. New players as well in the new micromobility sector. So simply put, let's make it simple. Our customer portfolio has never been so extensive, and we have a footing in the new mobility sector. Of course, the level of sales is still quite low, but we are prepared to grow. We are prepared to grow with these new players as these new players will grow by themselves. Move up also require a lot of execution skills, and it come back to the performance we had in '21. Our operational performance is recognized over the year. And thanks to the operating model we have, I think we have a strong know-how to integrate companies. And this is what is so important or will be so important in the integration of Valeo Siemens into Valeo. And this will make it successful. I would like now to come to one of the cement of the group, what brings the group together and all the business groups together. This is electronic. Critical mass is very important when it comes to electronic. It's important in processing, it's important in manufacturing, it's important in engineering. So electronic are cementing the group. And it's a lot of sales, more than EUR 10 billion of our sales have an electronic content, which give us true purchasing power. We have been working very hard for so many years together with important players, important partners to build the state-of-the-art software expertise that we now have. We have common training, we have common development processes, we have common validation tools. 40% of the engineers of Valeo are software or system engineers. The last foundation that I would like to address now is our approach to sustainability. And okay, I think it's at the very center of our business strategy, is close to my heart. We have made a clear commitment to carbon neutrality. We have our road map. It's a road map to reduce almost half our emissions by 2030, and we are on track. Our sustainability strategy has been recognized as a benchmark in the sector. We have been named an industry leader in many of the ESG indices. I will mention I will mention MSCI, I will mention sorry for the acronyms, there's too many. But in a nutshell, we have been given the highest possible score in the new CDP Supplier Engagement Rating. And last year, we have been included in the CAC40 ESG index. I think that excluding the tire companies, Valeo is the supplier that is the most represented in the ESG market indices. We are very, very proud of that. Our sustainable development approach is, of course, a key part of our governance and the variable compensation of more than 1,500 executive managers from the company is directly indexed on the achievement of ESG objectives. So you see we are very serious. So we will use all these solid foundations to make the ongoing revolution a success and to reap the rewards. But before going too much into the details of each of the business, let me give you the global view. As you can see now, the OE sales of Valeo are set to increase from EUR 14.8 billion to around EUR 24 billion in 2025. And there is a very important point to bear, I'm fairly confident about this number since we have already booked 70% of the 2025 business, it's in our order book already. So not only we will benefit from the recovery of the automotive market because this automotive market will recover at some point of time, but we will outperform the market. Based on IHS, the annual market growth will be 6.3% over the period. But at the same time, our OE business are set to grow at an annual rate of 13%. It means we are going to grow double or twice the market growth. And all our businesses will directly contribute to the group's growth. Look at the bubbles or look at the cycle: powertrain at 15%, no surprise, electrification. Thermal at 11%. They will benefit from the acceleration in electrification. ADAS. ADAS at 19% will be our fastest growing business. And the interior experience will grow at 14% and last, visibility will grow at 10%. And this growth will come hand-in-hand with an increase of our profitability and our value creation. It shows a continuous improvement of our profitability and what are the reasons that are listed on the right-hand side of the slide. Point number one, for sure, the operating leverage due to the increased volumes, growth brings profitability. This is for sure. We know there's going to be a sharp volume recovery increase and this is going to come soon as soon as the electronic shortage is easing up. The point number two, and this is more interesting, it's our internal efforts. I mean that the Move Up efficiency plan and the synergies that will unlock from the integration of Valeo Siemens into Valeo will bring results. The point number 3 is our resilience to inflation. And the point number 4 is that these new technologies are coming with higher margins. The EBITDA will follow the same trend, and it will grow from 11.3% to 14.5% in '25. And this growth, again, will be profitable for each of our business; ADAS, again, being the highest at 21%. Powertrain being the lowest at 11%, as I presented to you on February 10, and this is due to the integration of Valeo Siemens and to the acceleration of our innovation road map. We will grow as well our free cash flow from EUR 292 million in '21 to a level that will be between EUR 800 million and EUR 1 billion in '25. The cash conversion rate then will surpass 20%. I think on the right-hand side of the slide, you see the strength of the Valeo model because for 3 out of 5 businesses, the cash conversion rate will be way above 20%. And it will be slightly lower in our 2 fastest growing businesses, I mean PTS and I mean ADAS, due to the level of investment that will be required at these 2 businesses to keep up with their acceleration. Now let me get more into the detail of each activity. And electrification, as I said, I'm going to start with it, will fully transform mobility. Video, please. [Presentation]
Christophe Perillat-Piratoine
executiveElectrification acceleration. The car acceleration -- the electrification market, sorry, is going to accelerate extremely quickly. And it's really an area where we have, I believe, a dual advantage because we are doubly well positioned in powertrain and in thermal. And I realize that we have probably not talked enough about thermal recently. Today, I will. Let me start with e-powertrain train, and we are accelerating e-powertrain train because the market is accelerating. Between now and between 2030, the high-voltage market will grow 17.5% on average each year. And the 48-volt market is set to grow an average 22% annually. The Valeo content per car, I mean, that's a key metric for us. The Valeo content per car will increase 6x in an electric car and it will double for the 48-volt systems compared to an IC car. With the integration of Valeo Siemens into Valeo, Valeo is now more than ever a global leader. We are a global leader because we have all the technologies in both low- and high-voltage solutions. So I'm 100% convinced. I'm 100% convinced that the combination of Valeo Siemens inside the roof of Valeo of powertrain of -- will accelerate our growth. It will accelerate our growth with the high-voltage business, with the growing and the resilient 48-volt and we sell the IC business that will finance this transition. I think it's the right organization. It's the right organization to accelerate our innovation, to accelerate our competitiveness and to accelerate as well our profitability. With numbers. The high-voltage automotive powertrain market is set to soar from EUR 22 billion in '21 to EUR 92 billion in 2030. And at the same time, the mild hybrid market, what we call, 48-volt will continue to grow through 2030. And the market for technologies that are focused on ICE will begin to contract after 2025. This is going to come soon. This is why we are investing in high voltage. 40% of the high-voltage powertrain business is and will remain outsourced to automotive suppliers. Three out of 10 motors, 4 out of 10 inverters, 9 out of 10 onboard charges will be outsourced. So by integrating Valeo Siemens into 1 roof, together with our powertrain business, we will accelerate our technology road map. We will accelerate our technology development in inverters, and we have a strong partnership with [indiscernible]. We're working together to develop an electronic technology of 800-volt silicon carbide that will leapfrog competition and it will be ready for the 2025 business. We are speeding up our technology development as well on onboard battery chargers. Our new charges, they include bidirectional functions. It means the possibility of returning electricity to the grid. We've already signed our first contract with a premium German customer based on this technology. And lastly, we have just signed a strategic partnership with Renault to codevelop and to comanufacture a totally new type of electric motor, unlike any other in the world, one that is entirely rare earth free that will generate more power using less energy. What does it tell? I think it clearly shows that even in the past -- in the path, sorry, of the market that will be in-sourced, there's some room for suppliers like Valeo. No, I will talk about 48-volts. Please do not underrate the 48-volt market. Yes, I agree, for the automotive market, 48-volt is going to be a transitional technology, for sure, but a transition that will last more than a decade and the market will already be at the level of EUR 4 billion in 2025 and will continue to grow after 2030. Indeed, 48 volt is an essential step on the road to electrification because it will allow car manufacturers to comply with the Euro VII standard. And the third reason is that in parallel, our 48-volt systems are fit for new mobility solutions, which will be booming in the next decade. I'm talking about electric bikes, scooters, 3-wheelers in Asian market urban cars like the robotaxis, delivery all of these will use 48-volt technology, and this is huge volume. We have already booked business more than EUR 200 million in orders for these 48-volt technology. And we're aiming for EUR 250 million of sales already in '25 and more than EUR 0.5 billion sales in 2030. As a result, our Powertrain business will grow from EUR 4.3 billion to EUR 7.5 billion. And look at the booked ratio, 80% of the orders making up the '25 sales are already booked. Profitability, well, the profitability, if I measure it in pro forma EBITDA, the home of the new powertrain business will improve from 5.8% in 2021 to more than 11% in 2025. And all of this will be supported by the high level of synergies that will be generated by the integration of Valeo Siemens into the roof of Valeo. Valeo Siemens is improving quickly and it will further improve when integrated into Valeo. Needless to say that I'm not fully satisfied with the profitability of powertrain, but I'm confident in the execution of our action plan, I'm confident in the integration of Valeo Siemens into Valeo. I'm confident in the potential to move beyond. In terms of value creation, the powertrain will have a cash flow breakeven before tax this year already, and we'll start generating cash as soon as next year. At the end of the plan, it will generate EUR 350 million for this business. And I think solid improvement. By '26, our EBITDA in powertrain will be back at 13%. So when the electrification market will accelerate further, I think the powertrain business at Valeo will just be as profitable as our other businesses with the same value creation potential. As I said earlier, electrification is also a driver for thermal at Valeo. Valeo is #2 worldwide in thermal, and this is a highly concentrated market and it's a growth market as well. Put simply in '25, an electric car will have 2.5x more thermal content than in an ICE car. In this market, we already have the technologies that are needed to support the acceleration of car electrification. Remember, Thermal Systems will be absolutely essential for an efficient electric car. You have 2 examples on this slide, battery management systems on the left-hand side; heat pump, on the right-hand side. They will be necessary to charge quickly and to maintain a stable range. So the market of thermal will move. It will move, and it will increase significantly because it will triple over the next 5 years. And in '25, it will total EUR 21 billion of sales. We have a lot of experience in thermal, 40 years of experience, and we have built over all these years, a very comprehensive portfolio of technologies for electric cars, and we are serving some of the most iconic customers in electric cars. And as the market for electrification accelerates and the average content per car of thermal increases then the OE sales that are generated by our thermal sales will grow. They will grow from EUR 3.3 billion to EUR 5 billion in '25. And we have here as well booked a significant portion of this sale, 70%. EBITDA for this business will increase. It will increase from 11% to 13%. And this is going to be mainly due to the higher margin that's coming from these electrification technologies. Let me now turn to ADAS. And remember, ADAS will transform mobility. [Presentation]
Christophe Perillat-Piratoine
executiveWell, this market will grow. That's for sure. It will grow by 15% per year between now and '25 and in 2030, almost 90%, 90% of new cars will be equipped with driving assistance technology. There are really 2 drivers to explain the significant increase in content per car. The first 1 is accelerated takeup of even more sophisticated technologies; and the second one is emergence of new features. We are creating new features all the time. So I think our ADAS activity is very strong, very strong, and I will demonstrate it now. First, we have the most comprehensive portfolio of sensors on the market with sensors, cameras, radars, LiDARs. They are the eyes, they are the ears that allow the car to have a precise view of its environment. We're developing the brain as well. We're developing the brain that collects and analyze all the information to make the right decision. We're developing the central, the zonal controllers to compute all of these data, and we are developing the software that powers the driving assistance, parking functions, active safety. For the parking function, okay, what are the features? It's automated parking, for instance, it's valet parking. For active safety, you know them very well, it's automatic emergency braking. It's adaptive control, it's lane keeping. And we don't stop there, as we develop comprehensive systems that support up to level 4 automation fully integrated in cars. I'm quite often question on the real extent of our software activities. And let me give you an overview just using the example of 2 sensors. I selected the front camera because this is where we do have a software partner. And I selected the LiDAR because this is a sensor where we are developing 100% of the software in-house. Well, without going too much into the technical detail, just pay attention to the Valeo logos on this slide. It shows all the steps where we are in charge of the software. So you see it's everywhere. It's everywhere even for front camera where we have a partner. And this is not a coincidence because we are constantly reviewing our strategic positioning on software to optimize our value creation. Why is the ADAS market going to accelerate so much? Because ADAS is safety. It's safety driven by regulation. And ADAS innovation, bringing value to the end customers. By 2025, 3 out of 4 new cars will be fitted with technologies that support level 1, level 2, up to level 3 automation. And Valeo is a pioneer on this market. We are benefiting from 3 years of experience, and we will be pioneers again now. Look at the last innovations that I wanted to mention, by creating a workforce technology for General Motors that allows drivers to see through the trailer at the back of the car; by equipping at Honda, a model, with the first front camera able to reach level 2 automation on its own without the use of any additional sensor; and the last one, we're very proud of that, by equipping the first cars in the world capable of reaching level 3 automation, level 3 automation. We did it with Honda, we did it with Mercedes and more importantly, we did it with a Valeo LiDAR. So we have the capacity to produce these technologies anywhere in the world at extremely competitive price. As a result, market share are increasing. As a result, manufacturing capacity is increasing as well. In other words, the barriers to new entrants are increasing in parallel. I think our customers are considering our validation systems to be state-of-the-art, I would say, best on the market today. We have a huge simulation capacity, 40 petabytes of simulation data. 40 petabytes, it means a lot, it's a lot. And you can permanently replay this 40 petabytes on 250 test benches. And this helps to save some time before we go to real-world testing. I would like to say a word about LiDAR now because LiDAR is so important. LiDAR is going to be necessary for whoever wants to go to level 3 or more. LiDAR is set to experience an explosive growth in the years to come. Up to 30% of the premium new cars are set to reach level 3 automation in 2030. And to achieve this, there will be a need to be equipped with LiDAR technology. We have unique technological and industrial leadership. A few months ago, we launched our third generation of LiDAR, third generation already, with enhanced capabilities in resolution x265 to extend the use of our level 3 in the cars. So yes, there are a few competitors. We are today the only 1 on the road. But yes, there are a few competitors looking at the same market. But please do not underestimate our 10 years of experience, do not underestimate the design experience that I want to insist on the manufacturing experience, this product, the LiDAR product, is very difficult to produce. So at a time where a number of new players are entering the fray, no competitor at this time has managed to do what we have done. It means produce a LiDAR that meets automotive standards, combining high performance at cost at a cost that's compatible with the auto industry. We are the only global player hitting the road today with automotive grade, and we have already produced more than 160,000 LiDAR that are in cars on the road today. This acceleration in ADAS will enable us to double in ADAS and in LiDAR, but in ADAS as well will enable us to double our sales in this business by 2025 from EUR 1.9 billion to EUR 4 billion, and this represents an annual growth of 19%. So this will be, of course, due to higher volumes, and it will be increased as well for the content per car that will increase. Our order book is very good, very good at 65%. In 2022, I will put more money on LiDAR. You can see it on the 2022 numbers. It will slightly impact the profitability, but this profitability will improve between 22% and 25% and EBITDA will raise from 18% to 21%. Now interior experience reinvention, the electric and the autonomous mobility will change the task of the driver. Consequently, the third area where I expect to see a surge in growth over the next years is the interior experience. Please video. [Presentation]
Christophe Perillat-Piratoine
executiveSo this is going to be a nice market as well. It will grow by an average of 10% a year between now and '25. There will be a generization of 4G, 5G that will enable the generalization of connectivity for cars. Around 90% of new cars by 2030 will be connected. And for Valeo, it means a significant increase in the average content per car. Why is the market expected to increase so much? Because life inside the car, will be totally reinvented in the years to come. The interior experience will be a key differentiating factor for the OEMs passengers are expecting more and more from their cars. They want to fill in a kind of personal cocoon where they are both at home and safe. They want to relax, they want to stay connected. How do we answer their needs? We answered their needs with head-up displays that are providing an augmented reality vision. We answer their needs with connectivity systems that allow you to stay connected with your family, with your friends, even bringing them on board virtually. Our interactive services provide a seamless interface between the car and its passengers. And finally, our driver monitoring systems are warning you in case of fatigue or in case of distraction. This is why we intend to make this one of the acceleration driver of Valeo. We're aiming to grow our sales from EUR 1.2 billion to EUR 2 billion in '25, which is an average growth of 14%. And at the same time, our profitability will increase from 11.5% to 14%. It's going to be a direct result of more volume, cost-saving plan and higher-margin technologies. The final area where I would like to show you that we will reap the rewards this transformation in mobility and create more value, is lighting. I call it, lighting everywhere. Let's illustrate it. [Presentation]
Christophe Perillat-Piratoine
executiveLighting everywhere. Visibility is lighting, but it's wiping business as well. And we are the world leader. We are the world leader in this highly concentrated market and rapidly growing market. Same as our Thermal business, which I mentioned previously, I think visibility is very attractive, it's a very profitable business, which has not been much highlighted in the recent past. So let me correct this impression now. It's a complex business. It's a complex business with increasingly high barriers to entry in terms of innovation, in terms of expertise, in terms of production capacity. Our expertise, our standardized platforms, our large-scale production capability are highly recognized by our customers. Under the mobility revolution, lighting will play a major role. Let me explain. We are seeing emerging trends from our customers. The front of an EV car especially offer a larger space because there's a reduction of ventilation grids, the ventilation grids at the front of the car disappear and you can imagine how car designers love it. They love it because it offers to them a new place to affirm a brand, to affirm signature, to affirm styling through lighting. And on top of that, we can have new features such as road projection that will be rolled out. So in short, they will be lighting everywhere, everywhere around the car, everywhere inside the car. Now each car has a different style. And this is why our expertise is to be able to standardize the maximum value inside in platforms, while creating outside the most variety in terms of styling. And for instance, we just created this new platform, it's called the thin lens technology platform to have a very thin lighting at the front of the car. It's a platform with a unique design, but it has already 20 different models where we are rolling out. So high level of standardization inside but different styling for different visual identities outside. Please have in mind the required expertise and barriers to entry to lighting, styling, simulation, process, electronics, optics and as well software, many different fields of expertise that makes the barrier to entry extremely high. Our visibility business will grow. It will grow its sales from EUR 3.9 billion to EUR 6 billion in 2025. It's an annual growth of 10%. Profitability, slightly impacted by inflation in '22, will continue to increase. It will continue to increase over the plan, thanks to Move Up. We are aiming an EBITDA around 15% on the back of increased volumes, our cost saving plan, resilience to inflation and new margins coming from new technologies. So you saw it. All the business groups of Valeo will highly contribute to growth and to value creation. So it's time now for me to share our outlook for '25 and our guidance for 2022. These numbers you've already seen at the beginning of my presentation. In '25, EUR 27.5 billion of sales, including EUR 24 billion in OE sales and other performance of more than 5 points above the market. EBITDA at 14.5, EBIT at 6.5 and ROCE at 25%. You've already seen these numbers. Move Up, it's about creating value. So in 2025, we are targeting free cash flow between EUR 800 million and EUR 1 billion. And we will make choices as well through an active management of our portfolio of activities. We will focus exclusively on the businesses that are in line with our strategy. And that's why I intend to sell off EUR 500 million of nonstrategic assets over the period. It will strengthen our balance sheet. It will reduce Valeo's debt. So we are aiming, at the end of the plan, a leverage ratio of less than 0.7. Of course, we will benefit from the automotive market recovery and, sorry, for this slide to be a little bit complex. I think it's important to explain because many players make their own assessment of the market and some of them even distort the market through figures that are favorable to them, excluding this or excluding that part of the market. I decided in full transparency, and this was my first word, in full transparency to take the exact IHS data with no filters. And for 2022, in order to be conservative, I have chosen a base scenario that is lower than IHS by 1.5 points. It takes into account lack of visibility, especially due to the volatility of the semiconductor shortages. Our best scenario will be IHS, our worst scenario will be IHS minus 5%. And please, of course, bear in mind that this scenario does not take into account the current geopolitical situation, of course, which consequences are still unknown, but there might be questions later on the topic. So on this basis, we will reach around EUR 19.2 billion to EUR 20 billion sales in 2022 and we are aiming to outperform the global production by more than 5% over the period during the plan. All activities of Valeo will contribute to this strong performance with an annual average growth in the double digits across all of the business groups of Valeo. So the market recovery for sure is going to be a big booster of our profitability. But now I would like to insist on our own internal efforts because as part of the Move Up plan, we are deploying an action plan to ensure that this growth is going to be profitable. We're aiming to use the integration of Valeo Siemens eAutomotive to unlock EUR 120 million worth of annual synergies, and we'll do it progressively, but it will be fully applied in 2025. The efficiency plan that we are rolling out at group level will also generate additional annual saving of EUR 100 million from 2023. It's about making Valeo leaner, it's about making Valeo more efficient, it's about making Valeo more cost-effective. I know 2022 will be a challenging year because we are integrating Valeo Siemens into Valeo. We are aiming, nevertheless, at an improvement of our EBIT margin at ISO perimeter between '21 and '22, taking into account the integration in H2 in both years. And this improvement will be possible, thanks to 3 levers that will more than offset the effects of inflation. The first level is our Move Up efficiency plan; the second lever is a solid operating leverage from increased volumes; and the third lever is the higher margins that are coming from these new technologies. There are 2 graphs on this slide, there's the EBIT as reported in green and there's the EBIT pro forma with 100% Valeo Siemens in white. And what does it shows? It shows that the pro forma graph shows a continuous improvement of our profitability over the course of the plan, up to 6.5%. For this plan, we will protect our cash. We will protect our cash with a rigorous resource allocation strategy. We'll maintain industrial CapEx way below 6%. It was a commitment we made some years ago. We are doing it. We're walking the talk. And our net investment in R&D will also decrease steadily as we have done in the last years through 2025, when it will represent around 6.5% of our store sales. It does not mean that we are stopping innovation, not at all. On the opposite, it means that our platformization, it's -- I don't know if the world exists, but we use it at Valeo. It means that our standardization plans -- the same that we explained during the last CMD in 2019 are gaining full speed. They are extremely efficient, and they are clearly bringing benefit. I would like to make an additional comment for the right-hand side of the slide because you have to bear in mind that the gap between capitalization and depreciation is decreasing significantly. This gap was 2.1% in 2018. It was 1.9 points in 2019. It's 0.3 points in 2021. So the gap between depreciation and amortization has been in 2021 only 0.3 points. It means the quality of our results is improving as well. As a consequence of everything I said before, we guide on a marginal improvement of free cash flow in 2022. 2022 will be very challenging for many reasons. We take, of course, the integration of the into account during 1 semester, and the free cash flow generation will be mainly driven by a few elements. Point number one, the EBITDA improvement. Point number two, a significant positive change in working capital. I said the inventories have increased, the inventory will decrease. Part number three, an increase in the tangible CapEx to support the production recovery that's coming as well as a slight increase in capitalized R&D in '22 to support our industry acceleration. And the point number 4 is an increase in other terms including tax and including restructuring. You will see during the plan, a real acceleration in our value creation up to a free cash flow between EUR 800 million and EUR 1 billion in '25. Why? Why? Because the recovery of the auto market takes place because the integration of Valeo Siemens into Valeo will bear fruit and because our synergy and our efficiency plans are going to be materializing. These 3 elements come together and will grow the free cash flow generation of the plan. In parallel, as I said it already, our plan to divest EUR 500 million in Valeo. I have my list, and I have no taboo. And I hope we can achieve this before the end of 2023, of course, based on market conditions. The proceeds will allow us to accelerate our debt reduction. And my priority will be to deleverage Valeo so that Valeo is ready so that Valeo is fit in 2025 at a time where the revolution of electric and the revolution of ADAS will go to hyper growth. Therefore, I see a progressive dividend policy rather than an aggressive one during the period priority to the deleveraging of Valeo. And this will lead to a leverage ratio below 0.7 in 2025. If you remember, if you listen to me on February 10 when we announced the acquisition of the Siemens' share, I told you that the increase of debt in 2022 will be both manageable and temporary. These are the 2 words I use manageable and temporary. You can see that it's the case. I want to close this chapter with a recap a recap of our guidance in 2022 and a recap of our target for 2025. Once again, I am convinced that this plan I'm presenting to you this morning is achievable. We to the end of the presentation, I think it's time for conclusion. I present to you Move Up. I think Move Up gives purpose. It gives purpose to all the Valeo teams because we are proud to be part of this electrification and this ADAS revolution to build a new mobility carbon-free and safe. I think Move Up gives purpose as well to our customers. because they know they can rely on us for the future, the same way they relied on us in '21 through the semiconductor crisis. And I think Move Up gives purpose as well to our shareholders because in 2025, our company will be an even stronger group technologically and financially. And we know -- we all know that there is another decade after 2025, even maybe another 2 decades of sharper acceleration, which I call the hyper growth that's coming that will change mobility and let's say that will change the world. So by 2025, at the beginning of this growth will be stronger than ever. We'll be ready to benefit from this hyper growth with the first ambition, the first ambition on this road in 2030, the first ambition to reach EUR 40 billion of sales in 2030, EUR 40 billion of sales in 2040. This is the ambition of the Valeo team. And that concludes my presentation. Thank you for your attention.
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