Valeura Energy Inc. (VLE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Okay. All right, folks, we're just starting the live broadcast. Well, since there's dead silence, I'm going to start speaking while we get the camera started. Thanks for joining for the Valeura Energy 2025 AGM. My name is Robin Martin. I'm Vice President, Investor Relations and Communications. Before we get started, just a quick safety briefing. There are no fire drills scheduled for today. So if we hear the alarm, that is the real deal. We'll exit through the main doors of the Petroleum Club, turn to the right and the Petroleum Club staff will be there to direct us where to assemble. Before I hand over to Tim to start the AGM, I'll note that we're recording today's event as well, and we'll make a replay available on our website later today. So with that, over to you, Tim.

Thank you, Robin. Good afternoon, everybody. It's now exactly 4:00, and I ask that this meeting come to order. My name is Tim Marchant, and I'm the Chairman of the Board of Directors of Valeura Energy. I will act as the Chair for today's meeting. On behalf of Valeura, I welcome you to the meeting, and I would also like to welcome those shareholders and others who are listening to the live audio webcast. Before we proceed with the formal business of today's meeting, I'd like to introduce the Directors and the management of Valeura, who are all present here today. I would ask that each stand momentarily when I call their name so we can remember what you look like. First, our Directors, Tim Chapman, Anna Green, Russell Hiscock, Lina Lee; and Sean Guest, who as many of you will know, is also our President and CEO. From the management team, we have Yacine Ben-Meriem, our CFO; Greg Kulawski, who I forgot to introduce last year, so a double welcome for Greg, okay; Kelvin Tang, who is the Executive Vice President of Corporate, General Counsel and the Corporate Secretary; and Robin Martin, who you've met as our VP, Communications and Investor Relations. For this meeting, Kelvin Tang will act as a Secretary, and I will appoint the representatives of Computershare Trust Company of Canada as the scrutineers. The notice calling this meeting, a form of proxy and a mailing request form was sent to those. And those who requested the printed copies of the information circular were mailed to all registered shareholders on April 7, 2025. The declaration of mailing is available for inspection by any shareholder, and I would ask that the Secretary file a copy of such with the minutes. I've been advised by the scrutineers that the quorum has been met for this meeting. The scrutineers' report is available for inspection by any shareholder should you require bedtime reading. And I will ask that the Secretary file a copy with the minutes. With that said, I declare that the meeting is regularly called and properly constituted for the transaction of business today. For convenience, we've decided to divide the meeting into 2 parts. The first part will deal with the formal business of the meeting, and the second part will consist of a presentation by Sean Guest, our President and CEO, on the operations of Valeura, and that will be followed by questions from registered shareholders and proxy holders. To facilitate the timely completion of the exciting formal business, arrangements have been made with certain shareholders to move and second the resolutions to be considered. The votes will be conducted by way of ballot. If you are a registered shareholder and have not already submitted a formal proxy or are a proxy holder and you have not received a ballot, please identify yourself to the scrutineers and a ballot will be provided for you. I have been informed that such individuals are present. The first item of business is the presentation of the 2024 audited financial statements of Valeura and the auditor's report thereon. The financial statements are available on SEDAR+ and have been sent to those shareholders who have requested copies. The next item of business is the appointment of the auditors. May I please have a motion for such business?

Mr. Chair, I move that Deloitte & Touche LLP Singapore be appointed as auditors of Valeura to hold office until the close of the next annual meeting or until successors have been -- successor had been appointed at such remuneration as determined by the Board.

Is there a seconder?

Mr. Chair, I second the motion.

Any discussion? As previously stated, the approval of the auditors of the corporation will be voted on by way of ballot. If you have not received a ballot, please identify yourself to the scrutineers. I'm advised by the scrutineers that the motion has been carried by the necessary majority. Accordingly, I declare this motion to be carried. The next item of business is the election of the Directors. Valeura has nominated 8 Directors and did not receive any nominations from shareholders in accordance with the bylaws. Accordingly, I will now receive the corporation's Director nominations.

Mr. Chair, I nominate the following for election as Directors of Valeura: William Sean Guest, Timothy R. Marchant, James D. McFarland, Russell J. Hiscock, Timothy N. Chapman, Lina Lee, Anna Green and [ Charlem Chai Mahajesiri ].

Now may I have a motion for such business?

Mr. Chair, I move that the corporation Directors nominees be elected as Directors of Valeura to hold office until the close of the next annual meeting or until their successors are elected or appointed.

Is there a seconder?

Mr. Chair, I second the motion.

Thank you. In accordance with Valeura's majority voting policy, the Directors will be elected individually by way of ballot. For a nominee to be elected as a Director, he or she must receive a majority of the votes cast in favor of his or her election. If you have not received a ballot, please identify yourself to the scrutineers. The scrutineers advised me that each Director nominee has received greater than 50% of the votes cast in favor of his or her election as required by our majority voting policy. Accordingly, I declare the motion carried and that each nominee has been elected as a Director. That concludes the formal business of the meeting. I now declare the formal part of the meeting terminated. And thank you all for attending. Now the -- with the formalities completed, Sean Guest, President and CEO, will update Valeura's operations. If you've got any questions at the end of the presentation, for those who are here in the room, we ask that you raise your hand and be -- wait to be acknowledged and handed a microphone, and then begin your question by identifying yourself and indicating whether you are a registered shareholder or a proxy holder. For those online, you can submit typed questions through the Q&A function. Sean, over to you.

Thank you very much, Tim. Maybe before we start, one more introduction of a Director of the company, James McFarland. You want to introduce yourself? Just to say I'm having to make that correction again next year. But look, first off, thank you all very much for coming to the meeting and for tuning in here with us. It's a pleasure to be back here and to be able to tell this story to you guys and really have a look at where we're going. So you would have seen today that we actually put out 2 press releases. One of them was our quarterly financial results following up on the Board meeting yesterday. But the other one was the final investment decision to proceed with the Wassana redevelopment. So with the presentation today, I'll go through with just a bit of a reminder of where we've kind of come from and where we've got to over the past couple of years. What is the strategy of the company? Then talk a little bit about the Q1 results and then a little more detail on Wassana because this is quite an exciting project for us and just really looking at the extension that we're able to add to this field is very good. And really then tie this to what we're seeing in the reserves additions, the share price additions and where we're looking at the company going. So if we go a couple of slides forward. And again, this is a slide from our corporate presentation you will have seen. But it's really -- it was just over 2 years ago that we concluded the deal with Mubadala, which really set us up as a significant producer in the Gulf of Thailand. And when we did that deal, that's really what we are recognized for was the ability to have gone out and done that highly accretive deal. And just our timing was right with the pressures you saw in ESG coming out of COVID to go after those assets, and that worked out extremely well. But more important than having done that deal is really what we've done with the assets since. Because when we took them over, there was a belief that, look, there's a couple of years of production there, there will be good cash flows, but there's significant abandonment. But we're -- really, we've taken what was a reserve life index when we took it over just over 3 years. And now with what we've got today, we're almost -- we're just under 7 years and have done that just in the 2 years since we've taken over. It's a belief in the assets, a belief in the geology and these would work. And then it's really the team that we have and their ability to deliver in country and deliver in the drilling program to deliver in the reserves additions, a very high-quality team, and that's allowed us to really build up the cash flow in the company, continue to add to the reserves, continue to extend those fields' lives. And that's what's driven the share price as we move forward. Now when we look down, we also see we still believe that there's more consolidation to do. We still believe that we can really be the leading independent in this region. Now we look at deals, we look at a lot, but the value that's been returned to you as shareholders over the past few years has come from these assets and the delivery there. So we are looking at other deals. We expect to have some announcements. We see lots of things that we can do. But I really want to point out that this, the value growth that has come, has been related to the assets. So just the next slide. And that's looking at that share price as you see it there. We jumped up to $2 when we did the deal, but that was really doing the deals, it's really the change from $2 up to about $8 now that's on the back of the assets. And we only have to look back to the beginning of last year where we were trading in the $3 to $4 range. We haven't done any deals in the past year, and yet now we've more than doubled the share price since that time, right? So it's something -- we're extremely pleased with the assets. And what I can tell you is, actually, we're even seeing that the assets -- we expected to do well with these assets, but we're even seeing what we've been able to do in Thailand is even exceeding the expectations that we had a couple of years ago. And we're seeing more opportunities in this region as well. So it's not where -- we can be picky with the deals. We can decide the right time to do the deal that's right for us because these assets keep delivering for you. Okay. Next slide. And it's -- just a quick point again to bring it back to the strategy here. We do believe in growth. We are doing some share buybacks now because we're returning some of that capital to shareholders. But really, the value we want to deliver to you is through growth. And we've seen the organic assets are doing extremely well. They're that foundation of cash that are continuing to come into the company. And a lot of that is underpinned by the team, the operational excellence. I mean we're able to bring big company procedures, work into it to make sure that these assets continue to deliver that cash. But again, I don't want people to think that we're not focused still on the inorganic because especially in times like this, where you see drops in the share price in that, we expect opportunities can open up in this area for us to expand in that region. Okay. Next slide. So a quick summary of Q1. We can see that production is down a little bit from Q4. But again, on a year basis, we're up on that production. The main thing you'll notice is that the liftings that we did in Q1 were actually lower than the production level. And as we've always pointed out, that will happen. In Q4, we had higher liftings than we did on production. This term, we had lower liftings, so you had lower revenue related to those liftings. But again, it's all oil that's in the boats, and it does get sold. So over time, it averages out. Realized price in Q1 was still very good at over -- well, just under $79 a barrel. And then you can really see there, the key point on this slide to point out is when you go through the oil revenue, then you get the EBITDA, but it's looking at those 2 numbers, adjusted pre-tax, free cash flow, and then looking at the adjusted cash flow after tax, and essentially, they're identical. And this is -- as you'll note, we did that corporate restructuring, which we got completed last year to be able to access the tax losses that existed in the Wassana field and applied those across Nong Yao and Manora. And this is the first quarter where you're really seeing the effects of that come through. Now our cash, down a little bit, and I'll talk a bit about this in a minute. That was really due to that tax restructuring. We had to make a tax payment early. Our tax payments are normally lumpy. You make one in May and another one in August. But because of that restructuring last year in November, we had to accelerate that tax payment for 2024. And that's why you actually see that we're down a little bit in cash this quarter. But the adjusted working capital is rising. Next slide. So just working that from the cash flow bridge. Again, you can see the revenue there, royalties come off the top, OpEx, G&A. And then that key point, as we were saying, is really the 2, the pre-tax and the after-tax cash flow being identical at $74 million. And that's really leading to a margin increase. So we're looking at really 50% of margin from these barrels right now, which is extremely good for us on the back of that tax consolidation. Next slide. And then the cash bridge is, how do we go from the $259 million at the end of the year? Well, obviously, the adjusted cash flow was up from the production that we had. And you'd see that was $42 million, but just the working capital adjustment down of $18 million. And then you can see that single tax payment that we had to make of just under $40 million, which really what brought us down in that quarter. But it does mean we'll be looking at less taxes in the next quarter. Okay. And we did have NCIB there of about $5 million. Okay. So that's a Q1 story. Now going on just to the assets. Next slide. So Manora field, we did some drilling there. That's come on and is producing. We're doing some more seismic reprocessing to really decide on where we might go with the next round of drilling program. Jasmine, the rig is -- after it left Manora, most of the drilling since then has actually been on Jasmine field, which has been working on a number of the different platforms there looking to build up the production. A couple of key things there. We have got that low BTU gas generator now installed, and we expect, hopefully, by the end of this month, that will be commissioned. Idea there was significant reduction in the emissions from the Jasmine field as you're burning this low BTU gas, right? And then that offsets the amount of diesel you need, you lower the OpEx. So a project we expect to pay back in less than 2 years. The other one there, people have been talking a lot about. We have this -- a true exploration well coming up called Ratree. The rig is arriving on site, so we expect drilling to start fairly shortly. So we should get the results of that, preliminary results even this month or into next month on that drilling. So that is happening. Nong Yao, again, production going very well there after we brought on that new field last year. And we see some more -- after our oil discovery at Nong Yao last year, we expect to follow up on some more drilling in that area in the near future. Now Wassana, this is the one that we had the announcement on, and we'll just jump to the next slide and talk about that. So the first is to tell a bit of a story and just a reminder for people. When KrisEnergy had this asset and they drilled the discovery well at Wassana, they found oil in the shallower stratigraphy, right? And it was quite a small amount, but you could make it work with a small MOPU that they brought in. But this thing was really designed for a small amount of oil and a short reserve life. Now they -- then when they drilled after that, they found much more oil down deep. And also, what you found was a situation where you have a facility that is not optimized. And to give you an idea, the oil split that we see now between that shallow oil they develop the field on and the full field now, that shallow oil is only about 25% of the oil we expect to recover. The majority of that oil is much larger and is down in this deeper section. So you now have a facility that was installed that doesn't have the capacity, doesn't have the capability to drill enough wells is quite high OpEx cost as well. And we know it's really getting to the end of its life, and we're limping it along. And that's why we really -- 1.5 years ago, we did the appraisal, demonstrated the oil in the subsurface and went into a concept select for the best way to redevelop this field. Looking at do you just replace the MOPU, do you put in a new facility. So next slide. So the decision we've gone with is a whole new platform that we're going to install out there. And you can see it coming out in the reserves with instead of 2027 abandonment, we're now looking at 2043 on this field. So this isn't a field where you really look at that you can put in a MOPU with a short life. You need something that can last out there well beyond 2040 and towards 2050. So that's a huge change for the field. You need that processing capacity to be able to handle more oil and, in fact, more water. And then -- well, the simple way I'd like to describe this thing is that what we're doing with this facility is we're going to be able to more than double the production from this field, and we're going to more than half the operating cost of the field. So that means you're just getting much more high-value barrels being produced, much more resilient, low breakeven cost and pushing out the life of the field. And that's really what we're going to have here. And that's what's delivered from -- if you just use this MOPU, we would recover 2.5 million barrels. This facility now, the reserve auditor has given us 20.5 million. So you're getting 18 million more barrels of access just with this facility and that long life extension. So the last point to make with the 2 is that it then allows you to tie back other facilities to this location. And this is exactly what we see in our Nong Yao facility, we're just duplicating it there. Next slide. And actually, that's really the point here is by installing this facility, we'll open up an ability to drill over more of the field, access more of these layers. But importantly, it's now 24 well slots, higher processing capacity, lower power requirements. You're going to drop that OpEx to the same level we're currently getting from Nong Yao, which is kind of in the mid-teens, $12, $16 a barrel. It's the same concept. It's just this is step 1, whereas on Nong Yao, we had step 1, we did another platform and then we installed another field last year. So this is really the start of the development of Wassana. Okay. Last point on it is the contractor we selected to build the facility, the jacket, that is Thai Nippon Steel, excellent contractors that have been there for 40 years doing these platforms in the Gulf of Thailand. And obviously, a sub under Nippon Steel, which is a very well-known, large company. Next slide. So just looking at the facilities costs and what we mean by that from the jacket, the whole processing facility on the top, the pipelines that's required to really go off to the FSO for the storage of the oil. All of those costs come in at about $120. And then the wells, the first phase of drilling, we're planning 17 wells in total, 16 horizontal development wells and 1 water injector. Now the cost for the wells now, we currently see at about $4.8 million per horizontal well, but we are seeing a drop in rig costs in that in the current oil price environment. So we use that number for our economics, but we do see opportunities here that if the oil prices stay a bit low, that we actually could be looking at lower cost for those wells once we get to drilling them at the start of 2027. And that's really the plan right now is to cart -- start cutting steel on our facility in July to install the jacket and this platform by the end of next year, so 2026, to be ready to start drilling the wells in January of '27. And that can have us producing oil pretty well. Exactly 2 years from now, we should have the oil. And then by the second half of '27, with the MOPU still producing a bit, and this producing over 7,500 barrels a day, that what's -- that's what gets us to 10,000 barrels a day in the second half of 2027. Okay. Next slide. Yes. So just making that key point again. So for Wassana, we're really taking 2.5 million barrels that you could recover with this MOPU up to 20.5 million barrels. Incrementally, see from the reserves auditor, NSAI, the value they report on that is $218 million. So that's an increase from what we had at year-end. But then putting that into our portfolio, it takes us from at the end of last year, we had 50 million barrels of reserves, so up to over 57 million barrels, and that's what gets you to just under 7 years of reserve life index. So the NAV of the company increasing $844 million plus our cash, it just continues to step up the value of the company with this FID. And we saw that with a number of the analysts today actually increasing their target price on the company by about $1. Then next slide. Yes. So just making that final point that -- so this is the start of what we plan to do in Wassana. So we've got the field here. These reserves, the central field should go to 2043, but you're looking at 2, 3 years kind of plateau of the oil. But then we already have enough oil discovered to the north at Niramai to tie that back to add more plateau and to extending the life further. Then Mayura down in the south, there is discovered oil down there. We're currently reprocessing all the seismic there to be ready to do drilling. And what we're looking for is once we get this thing up and producing, where is the next satellite we're going to go to? Is it going to be the south? Or is it going to be the north? We have optionality. But the platform is being designed with 2 risers that will bring the oil from 2 separate satellites up. So this is really the next stage, and that's where you see the comparison to Nong Yao. Okay. Next slide. So just on the guidance, the only change in the guidance that we're currently putting in is really, obviously, the CapEx has gone up a bit with this facility. So $120 million total CapEx, about $40 million of that should be spent this year. So that obviously increases it. Now I will make a statement that with oil price where it is, the team we've got in Thailand has been going through and looking at areas where we can actually look to reduce some of the costs in our currently producing fields, but we'll make more announcements on that, I expect, as we go forward in the year. And obviously, then adding that CapEx in, then you really look at your free cash flow prediction, that actually brings that down a bit for the year. But still looking at that range from $65 million up to $85 million, you can still see very healthy free cash flow coming from the company in that period. And the last slide. So really, this is just bringing it back to this NAV and how we keep stepping it up. And it's -- this is what's really driving the increase in share prices. When we look back, just having done the deal, we had a NAV of about $4, and we're trading at about, I think, about $2 at that time. And then we're just continuing to add to that NAV through the company, through delivery of cash, through adding to the reserves and the future production of the company, increase it every year and then the share price has just been chasing it as we move along. And we still see more that we can do here. Things are going very well in Thailand, good relationships there, and we see other opportunities that we can be expanding in that region. So for us, it's a very exciting time. It's been a really good run, and we're looking forward to how the next year is going to go, and we hope we can deliver more value to you all. So thank you very much for coming out and for listening in today. At that point, questions?

Okay. So Sean, don't go anywhere. We'll take Q&A from the room if anyone is keen to ask a question.

Oh, come on.

Okay. And we'll -- while I hand the microphone over, I will remind the online -- well, I'll give you the microphone anyway so the online can hear you.

Okay. So that's a -- yes.

The question was what's happening in Turkiye. And sorry, Sean, just to interrupt, the online audience, [Operator Instructions]. What's happening in Turkiye?

Yes. So we've maintained those assets in Turkiye. It's been a quiet time over there, but we did get last year. We got the extension from the government. And then they gave us another year on force majeure. So we have those blocks in this phase up until the middle of next year, so just over a year from now. And there is still an appraisal period that's open for us there. So we -- with the -- getting that kind of locked in, there has been some more interest that's kind of come in. So we're kind of in discussions with some people, and we'll see whether that leads to something in the near future. So it's not yet. There is some interest. Obviously, we've been following the news with Turkiye, too. We've actually seen some other deals that have got done there and kind of following what's going on.

Okay. Thanks for that. A question came in from the online audience. Congratulations on the FID at Wassana. Given the cash requirements of the project during 2025 and 2026, do you expect there to be any changes in your organic growth plans -- or pardon me, your inorganic growth plans? Will target acquisitions be more limited or smaller in scope?

The simple answer is no. And it is one thing -- we've done a lot of work since April 2, Liberation Day with the Board. We've had a lot of going through with, let's look at the company, let's look at our cash position. Let's look at running this at $50 flat for the next 3 years to really look at the company and what we have available to us. And then we kind of look at, okay, what can we do with that? And in actual fact, what we see is we still maintain the flexibility to be able to do other deals. Some of the bigger deals we have been looking at, we continue to follow up on, right? It's a bit of a challenging time though when you have this volatility. It's not an optimal time to see deals being done. People tend to be a little cautious until they see, is the price going to be low? Is anyone in stress? But again, we continue to work on those. But no, we don't see that it does constrict us at all.

Okay. I'll switch to a couple of questions related to that, that came in, in advance of the meeting. Which other areas are you looking at besides Thailand?

Yes. So as we said, still lots in Thailand. Key other countries after that would be Malaysia, it would be one we're very interested in. And then again, looking at Indonesia, Vietnam and what we've always said is kind of a watching brief on Australia. I've always liked the geology there. I've worked in Australia a lot, a number of us had. We can -- or have -- we kind of know the region, but we're still watching how things are going to go in Australia at this point in time.

Okay. And another question in the same vein. How important is gas as part of your growth plans given the volatility we're seeing in the prices of oil?

Yes. We would really like to actually bring some gas in. And I've kind of mentioned this before. A lot of us, our background is more like Shell, Woodside, which is big offshore gas projects. So we'd be very comfortable bringing some gas into it, and we do see some opportunities for that coming up. But as noted also, it's a bit of a natural hedge. Now you're probably getting less per barrel equivalent, but in actual fact, it's paid out, longer-term contracts, less susceptible to this variation we're seeing in Brent. So we do see that as a target, we'd like to bring in more gas besides the ESG factor of lower emission.

Okay. We do have more online questions, but I'll just pause there and ask if there's more from the room. Let me bring you the microphone.

I'm a registered shareholder. If you're interested in gas, would offshore India not be a place to look as well in?

No, not -- yes, I have in past lives, different careers. We've had a look at that, but it's not really in our target area. There's kind of a band of countries that we're most interested in and remain focused on that.

Any other questions from the room? Okay. We'll go to another online question then. On the Wassana redevelopment, how quickly could you expand Wassana to start tying in one of the satellite developments?

I can just tell you my view, my CEO might disagree. But my view is the moment you have this thing producing, so you're kind of talking the middle of '27, you should be really starting to look at the concept select to make sure you're ready to go with the next facility. So we could see it coming on fairly quickly after that. But we really want to tie these things to how is my plateau behaving to try and maintain the production level, total production at a very similar level as you move forward. So you don't want to drop down and then develop things and bring these -- have these gaps. So we really look at trying to maintain the production at a similar level as long as -- the plateau as long as it can.

Okay. And just another couple of questions here. When it comes to inorganic growth, are you looking at deals only to be paid for with cash? Or are you considering other financing means such as debt or equity?

Yes. Definitely, we look on the debt side, and there's been quite a bit of discussion going on in that area. And that's really our preference is to look at that first as debt. We don't really see that we would look at equity, especially in the current environment, to go out and raise any equity. So our focus does remain on debt. And some of the opportunities that we're looking at, especially cash flowing opportunities, you are able to get quite a significant amount of debt towards the deal.

Okay. And one last question from the online audience. What are you doing to tell the Valeura story to more audiences?

Yes. So we've kind of started -- now that we have this news out, we're starting a bit of a marketing. So we'll be on the road here around North America for the next 1.5 weeks. Back over into the U.K. We've been actually doing some marketing over in Asia as well. So we're trying to keep that communication very alive.

Great. Last chance for any other questions from the room? All right. Well, with that, I'll just remind the online audience that we are available any time. You can reach us with the e-mail addresses and contact information on the website. And with that, over to you to wrap up, Sean.

Again, just reiterating that message. We're very pleased with what we've been able to do over the past couple of years and the value add. It's a lot of it linked to the quality of the team on a good set of assets, and that's why we believe there's still a lot more we can do here. M&A is still part of the strategy. But again, it -- we're going to determine the right deal for us at the right time. And what we're looking for are things that are, again, transformational, but we want to be doing these deals that make a real change in the size of the company. Thank you very much.