Vector Limited (VCT) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, everybody. Welcome to Vector Limited's conference call and webcast to discuss the company's financial and operational results for the full year ended 30 June 2024. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you that this conference call is being recorded today. I would now like to hand you over to Vector's Chair, Doug McKay, who will take you through the call. Please go ahead, Doug.

[Foreign Language] Hello, everyone, and welcome to this presentation. I'm Doug McKay, Vector's Chair. Today, we're going through Vector's results briefing for the full year ended 30 June 2024. Joining me on the call is Group Chief Executive, Simon MacKenzie; and Chief Financial Officer, Jason Hollingworth. We'll start the presentation with comments from Simon on some highlights from the year, then overall group performance, then to Jason, who will go into more detail on the financials. To close the call, Simon will talk about the current and future market outlook and then I will come back to talk about the dividend. After that, we'll be happy to take your questions. So I'll now hand over to Simon to start the presentation.

Thanks, Doug, and good morning, everyone. Our results for the past financial year is strong, and this reflects solid business performance as well as the hard work of many people. We continue to focus on our Symphony strategy, which was designed a number of years ago to enable us to navigate the uncertainties of the energy transition in the decades ahead, but with a primary focus on the infrastructure and technology to support the transition. Our approach is to invest as efficiently as possible using digital solutions to manage demand growth and electrification at the least cost to consumers. We recognize the cost of living pressures that customers are experiencing, and this further reinforces our strategy and focus on affordability and a reliable and safe service. As you'll see when we get into the numbers, we've continued to invest to enable growth in electrification. While our level of capital investment will continue to increase as demand grows, our strategy seeks to manage the level of increase. For example, we seek to meet customer demand while lowering and managing peak load using digital solutions. This results in a lower capital expenditure path than would otherwise be the case. This means network efficiency has increased, helping making consumer costs more affordable. As well as growing the network in line with our strategy, we're also continuing to focus on network resilience. Noting we don't have to go back very far to see the impact of extreme whether we can have such as Cyclone Gabrielle and the flooding in early 2023. We've engaged with the experts from around the world to further develop our understanding and capability around resilience challenges using data and advanced climate modeling to build a robust our understanding of specific risks and integrate this into our asset management practices. This is including preparing for wildfire risk last summer, working closely with NIWA, Fire & Emergency in New Zealand, and major electricity network operators in the U.S. who are experienced in dealing with wildfires. We've also taken a detailed look at the risk of flooding at 113 of our zone substations and have established a number of mitigation projects. One of the drivers for a significant project we have underway, in Ngataringa Bay, on the North Shore, is to decommission a zone substation there due to flood risk. Looking at the wider group, our investment in Bluecurrent, formerly Vector Metering, has performed in line with our expectations. We're benefiting from the complementary skills, common objectives and strong alignment of purpose we identified when selecting QIC as our joint venture partner. Vector Technology Solutions, which we established to leverage the capabilities and tools we have developed during our digital transformation, has a long-term contract with Bluecurrent to provide data services. VTS is also actively pursuing offshore opportunities for the data processing Diverge platform. Our smart meter data programis progressing well, and we've developed a range of new capabilities to benefit our customers using advanced data analytics including EV uptake monitoring and improved visibility of our low-voltage network. We're also pleased to have extended our strategic alliance with Amazon Web Services and our contribution to the Tapestry project with X, formerly Google X. Tapestry involves collaborating on next-generation platforms for network management. You have seen again, we've published a climate-related disclosures in greenhouse gas emissions report. We're proud of the progress we've made to date across our portfolio in reducing carbon emissions. Turning now to the wider regulatory environment for our electricity network. We value the engagement we've had with the Commerce Commission as it works through its decision on the next 5-year price quality path, which is due later this year and will take effect from 1 April 2025. I think it's important to note our approach has been to avoid commitment to high levels of capital investment around areas where there is significant uncertainty such as EV uptake because our capital investment ultimately flow through to customer pricing at receipt. And we consider it's not in their best interest to lock in high levels of investment where the scale and timing of need is not yet seen. Instead, we have discussed with the Commission a much better approach, which to have the flexibility to bring forward more capital when there is more certainty through a process known as reopeners. We acknowledge that the price increases on customers' line charges will occur in the new regulatory period and that the Commission has proposed that these increases will be smoothed over the 5-year period. We recognize this approach will help minimize the potential of a one-off price shock for customers noting that our prices are set by regulation, whereas others -- and other parts of the sector aren't. And there was no price moving mechanism to limit those shocks on customers. Finally, there has been a lot of commentary over recent weeks on high energy prices and lack of generation to supply the energy market. Before I move to our position, as a sector we never overlook the human impact of what is currently happening. In the context of a challenging economic environment, the stress on people who are losing their jobs and the flow-on effect that is significant and should not be happening. Our long-held view is that the energy system is going through a significant transition with the need for more capacity, changing customer needs and climate change. We've long called for an energy strategy taking a whole of system approach rather than the current piecemeal approach. This is because no part of the system can operate in isolation anymore to deliver secure, reliable, affordable energy to meet consumer demands now and into the future. The changes made in the late '90s, known as the Bradford reforms, may have been right for their time, but we believe this is no longer the case in a rapidly changing world. New Zealand urgently needs an energy strategy to inform policy and regulatory settings and enable the industry to effectively manage the energy transition. I'll now move to the financial results. This is the first full year without the metering business in our results, and we've announced transactions that cover the businesses that make up our Gas Trading segment. Firstly, I'll provide an overview of financial performance then hand over to Jason to go over the detail. For the 12 months to 30 June 2024, Vector has delivered a strong full year result, with adjusted EBITDA for the group for continuing operations up 14% to $365.2 million. Adjusted EBITDA does not include the customer contributions, which is how we fund the majority of the customer-initiated growth across our network. Group net profit after tax for continuing operations was $79.9 million. This includes the $60 million impairment of our gas distribution business, which we announced at the half year. Total capital expenditure was $510 million, reflecting continued investment in the Auckland network. Of this, $195 million was funded by capital contributions. I'll now hand over to Jason.

Thanks, Simon. I'm on to Slide 7. This slide shows the segment contributions to the top line adjusted EBITDA of $365.2 million. You can see positive results here from both our reported segments. I'll go into the detail in the coming slides, but it's worth noting that this excludes the discontinued operations, which is a natural Gas Trading business that we sold earlier in the year. Group net profit after tax from continuing operations was $79.9 million. Depreciation and amortization increased by $26 million, driven by investment in network and digital assets. Net interest has reduced by $93 million, reflecting lower debt levels and interest received on the cash balance we held during the year. The impairment is for the gas distribution business, which we announced at our half year results. This impairment was driven by the Commerce Commission's regulatory decision to lower future returns to owners of gas distribution networks by lowering the WACC percentile and also by interest rate changes. Our NPAT is also reduced by a 50% share of Bluecurrent's net loss, which was $24.9 million. While our investment in Bluecurrent has performed in line with expectations, they've reported a net loss driven by interest costs on debt to fund growth, depreciation of meters and amortization of customer contracts. The higher tax expense reflects higher underlying earnings, noting that our impairment is not tax deductible. So on to Slide 9. Total capital expenditure for the year was $510.1 million, still at high levels. $195.2 million was funded by capital contributions, which what new customers, such as developers, pay to fund the cost of their connection to the network. These contributions are recognized as income in the P&L under New Zealand IFRS. There was a year-on-year increase in replacement CapEx on the network, primarily driven by work to improve resilience and restore the network following adverse weather events in 2023. Slide 10, Vector's credit rating remains at BBB+ with a positive outlook. $400 million of bank facilities matured in July after balance date and were replaced with $125 million of new facilities. Slide 12. Networks adjusted EBITDA for the year to 30 June is up $35.6 million to $407.2 million. This result was driven by higher electricity revenue due to price adjustments reflecting the impact of high historic inflation. We faced a 2-year lag in recovering inflation under the regulatory pricing model. Auckland's growth has continued with total electricity numbers growing by 1.9% to 624,330, and new electricity connections for the year were up 0.6% from the prior year. There's also been a 6% increase in total connections on Auckland's gas distribution network to 120,354. However, the number of new gas connections was down 28.1% on the prior year with 1,994 new connections added. Slide 13. Before I cover Gas Trading earnings, I just want to call out the distinction between natural gas and LPG. There's been a lot of media stories on gas supply issues in New Zealand. These relate to natural gas, not to LPG or liquid petroleum gas. There's no current supply constraint with LPG as LPG is already imported into storage facilities owned and operated by Liquigas when there's a requirement to supplement locally produced LPG. In 2024, we saw improved performance from Vector's OnGas LPG business. The reduction in the LPG input costs due to lower international Saudi Aramco prices plus higher prices customers and higher volumes. This was partly offset by higher cost of transportation and staff. Overall, LPG volumes were up 5.4% to 44,165 tonnes with bulk and cylinder volume sales both higher. Bottle Swap volumes were down 0.2% to 587,814 bottles swapped or sold. Liquigas tolling volumes were up 0.2% to 106,750 tonnes. Just a couple of reminders of things we've already announced. The natural Gas Trading business has been removed from the Gas Trading segment and classified as discontinued operations in the FY '24 result. The transaction to sell the remaining contracts completed after balance date on the 1st of July for a value of $9.7 million. And on the 26th of July, we announced a conditional sale of $150 million of Ongas and our 60.25% shareholding in Liquigas. Slide 14. As Simon has already mentioned, Bluecurrent's performance is in line with our expectations that Vector's 50% equity accounted share of Bluecurrent's 2024 net loss was $24.9 million. That includes the amortization of intangible assets by Bluecurrent. Vector received $30.6 million in cash distributions from Bluecurrent in FY '24, plus $19.9 million received after balance date to take to a total of $50.5 million of cash distributions relating to Bluecurrent's 2024 period. Bluecurrent has deployed a total of 2.55 million meters at 30 June 2024, and this was up from 2.48 million at 31 December 2023. Now I'll hand back to Simon.

Thanks, Jason. Auckland's electricity connection growth is expected to decline in financial year '25 to around 12,000, reflecting a reduction in connection requests over the last 6 months. Gas connection growth is less certain, partly due to the shortage of natural gas. The Commerce Commission issued its draft default price path period 4 receipt decision in May 2024. The Commission's final decision is June November '24, with the WACC being set based on the average risk-free interest rates in the 3-month period from June to August, and Vector's actual regulatory year '24 cost base is disclosed to the Commission in August '24. At the last reset, interest rates were at historical lows, that's pre-2019. And as I said earlier, we acknowledge the application of the Commission's model will lead to price increases for customers online charges in the new regulatory period. The Commission has proposed that these increases will be smooth over the 5-year period out to 2030 period, and we recognize this approach will help avoid sudden price shocks for consumers. We announced the conditional sale of our Ongas LPG business and 60.25% shareholding in Liquigas for $150 million on 26th of July after balance date. The net book value of these assets at 30 June 2024 was $136 million. These are the remaining two businesses in our Gas Trading segment. We're working to satisfaction of the conditions which would include Commerce Commission approval, and we expect these could take 4 to 6 months. We will provide financial year '25 guidance in February 2025 after we have received the final DPP4 decision as this decision will impact revenue from 1 April 2025. In closing, I'd like to particularly thank all of our staff in field services for the dedication and focus this year and acknowledge that it's been a particularly significant one for those in our Gas Trading businesses with the changes we've announced there. I'd also like to thank all the field service providers who are out there every day working hard for customers, and we really appreciate their efforts in all kinds of conditions. And finally, as we continue to move through this energy transition, we'll continue to advocate for customers and for positive changes in the industry. I'd now hand back to Doug to talk about the dividend.

Thank you, Simon. The Board has determined an unimputed final dividend of $0.13 per share, plus a special dividend of $0.0175 per share. This takes the full year dividend to $0.24 per share. The final outcome of the Commerce Commission's reset of the electricity default price quality path, which is for the next 5 years, is not due until 30 November 2024. As this is a key regulatory decision that impacts our future cash flow, the Board will review the dividend policy once the Commission's final decisions are known. That brings us to the end of our presentation. But just before we move to questions, I'd like to thank Simon and his executive team and everyone else at Vector and our field service providers for their hard work over the period to deliver for Vector customers and shareholders. Simon, Jason and I are now happy to take any questions.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Andrew Harvey-Green from Forsyth Barr.

Very strong results, good to see. A couple of questions for me. The first one is around the dividend. It does seem to be a reasonable departure actually from your current policy, which talks about $0.165 of dividend growing, sort of in line with projected growth and then first half, second half is roughly equal. We've seen a huge increase in the dividend here. I guess the key question really is -- and I acknowledge that you're looking at resetting the policy at [ TP rate ]. But I'm assuming that the policy will be set in a way that this current dividend we're seeing is sustainable long term, I guess, is the key question.

Andrew. No, look, we're not making any predictions about future dividends. We have looked at the current state of the business. We've looked at the likely range of outcomes on the DPP4 and that has determined our point-in-time dividend for today. The dividend policy will canvass wider issues than just the amount because we've had big changes in our balance sheet in the last 12 months, as you know, around debt levels and so on with the divestment of the metering business to name one. We've had the Gas Trading business to pass, and we have conditionally sold the OnGas business. So there's a lot of moving parts, and we think it's time to sit down and think about the dividend policy more holistically, and we're not presaging any outcome for that in this dividend recommendation. This is based on what we see happening in the business today and our current financial position.

Okay. Just a quick follow-up just in terms of the split between the ordinary and the special dividend that we see here. The special dividend I assume related to proceeds from the sale of assets.

No. No, we're not tying the special dividend to any particular change in the balance sheet. We -- it is designed to reflect the uncertainty around the final outcome of the DPP4. As we sit here today, we already know of a change in the interest rate reset because the Commission is well known. They take a view on this current 3-month period as to what the interest rate will be for the next 5 years. And with the recent reduction in the OCI, their draft decision has already changed. So packaging some of the dividend up as a special is to reflect what we can do today, but the uncertainty around where we see the DPP4 outcome landing, therefore, it's influence on sustainable dividends going forward.

Okay. Second question is just around the metering business and the outlook there. And I guess, in particular, the key focus for us going forward is probably going to be those cash flows coming back to Vector. I'm assuming we can expect that we'll continue to grow roughly in line with the rollout that we're seeing in the business.

Yes, I think that's right, Andrew. We haven't obviously given any guidance. But yes, they continue to deploy meters. So that's a positive sign that will help underwrite their future distributions.

And just lastly from me around capital contributions. I think in the asset management plan, there were sort of indications are going to be quite a significant step-up and the level of capital contributions just want to confirm that's the case in Europe and give us a bit of an indication of what FY '25 contributions will look like?

Andrew, the -- I guess, the issue there is the current review that is underway by the electricity authority in terms of how those capital contributions are managed in the future. So we're waiting for that consultation and we're not certain about how that's going to play out. And therefore, that's another factor that we need to have regard for when we look forward. So I'm not sure what that timing is going to be. But it's a risk that's out there for us.

Okay. So until that's resolved, probably the current level or the current approach is probably the best way to think about it.

Yes, that's right, Andrew. And there's two components to capital contributions is what's known as the system growth charge, which we believe is the right mechanism to cater for basically what we call the upstream growth across the network to get over a lot of traditional issues, which people have had problems with regard to first mover advantage in specific locations and -- or disadvantaged in some cases. So there's a consultation on that mechanism primarily. I guess, it's fair to say, just for the record, that we have researched with a lot of our customers. They don't feel inclined to want to subsidize commercial operators for their connections. And so that's something that we strongly advocate for. But equally, with regards to these large connections, the other areas that we have to also recognize is we're seeing a lot of growth in data centers, for example, and they're funding their growth, and we recognize that and appreciate that. But depending on what is the mode of that growth and what how they come in pretty large increments will also influence going forward over the next 2 to 3 years that customer contribution level.

The next question is from Grant Lowe from Jarden.

Just coming back to the dividend a bit. Just can you give us any color on how the split between the $0.13 in the second half and the special was determined. I appreciate the fact that your earlier comments around not seeing what the go-forward might look like, but just interested in how you sort of out that split.

Grant, I think it's just reflecting the uncertainty about the Commission's process and where we're going to land on DPP4. So rather than not having it as a special, we didn't want people to think -- there is this uncertainty out there. So I was trying to reflect that. That's what we were trying to do.

Yes. Okay. Very good. So just on to a couple of small points. The -- I interpret the result is $382 billion, including Gas Trading versus the guidance of [ 350 to 365 ] which is obviously a decent outlook -- uplift. If I've got that, right?

That's right, yes. .

Yes, yes. And so we that lift versus your expectation that at sort of February.

Well, we are at the top, mainly to do with the performance of the electricity business. Well, two things and the Gas Trading business. So we had a very positive, as you know, what's happened in the market in relation to gas prices. So we're a beneficiary of that in our Gas Trading business. We were a beneficiary in an LPG business because input prices were lower. And we also had more volume flowing through our electricity business. So they can sort of those three core businesses all had a pretty good second half that's reflected in that result.

Yes. Okay. So in the [ EDB ] which is where most of it happened that was higher connections in the second half but...

Volumes connections, Grant, yes.

Yes, okay. Okay. And just regarding -- you've previously given sort of a fear on how much the inflation uplift has been like, given the 2-year lag and then inflation coming through in the EDB pricing. Do you have a rough idea of what that was as a contributor to the period?

Not off the top of my head, I'm happy to get that -- look at that for you. We disclosed it to the Commission. So I can get it. I just don't have it on my fingertips.

Okay. And then just around the sale process. Obviously, you've announced the sale of the gas business and you would be pursuing if you're confidence on that clearly. So just around could you give us a sense of the sale process you went through and if for whatever reason it does get pushed back by the Commerce Commission, therefore, what are sort of other options you've explored might be?

This party interested in pieces of that business, we were attractive to someone who wanted to purchase both components of the business to us. And obviously, that party -- and we haven't disclosed it because we've been asked not to as an incumbent. So there is some risk in the Commerce Commission process and where that ends up. We'll obviously have to talk to other parties if that doesn't go through, but we're less likely to get someone to take our both businesses from us.

Yes. Okay. And then just around the performance of some of the smaller businesses in the Corporate segment. Is there any sort of call out in terms of those -- in terms of being a drag or otherwise?

It's consistent with prior years. I mean HRV is still a challenging business for us. Our fibre business is still solid and performs well year-to-year.

[Operator Instructions] Your next question is from Phil Campbell from UBS.

Just a couple quick ones for me. Firstly, on metering. Could you just give us, Jason, just a bit of an update on the amortization of the intangible, how much that was?

So have you off the top of the head, Phil, but it is quite a large number because we are required to -- we see that there was a big intangible asset when that transaction was struck and then that intangible asset because it's sort of fixed related to the life of customer contracts, then has to be written off over the term of those contracts and those contracts quite don't have resets on them, but you have to write them off over that first period. So it is quite a big piece of that. I just don't have it at my fingertips. But it's fixed large intangible.

And could you guys just give us a little bit of color in terms of -- obviously, we've got the accelerated rollout of meters in Australia, like how that Bluecurrent JVs is kind of mobilizing and ramping up for that. Obviously, just in terms of the meters that you disclosed, it looks like it was 70,000 added in the 6 months. Are -- Just interested on any comments on how it's mobilizing and what the kind of target run rate is?

Yes. Look, we are pleased with regards to the rollout in Australia, obviously mobilizing as a function of our contracts won in the market. So we've had success in that market. We're not going into specifically details on those. But we've been really pleased with winning a number of key contracts over there. On top of that as well, it's the deployment of the meters out in the field. So we have always had field service providers provide those services in the field, and we're targeting, obviously, managing the cost of that deployment. Costs also relate very much to locations such as travel and access and a whole raft of other issues. But it was pleasing to see that we managed to keep those costs well contained. And one of the other aspects has been a big focus for the last kind of year with regards to Bluecurrent is ensuring that the platforms that we have meet the requirements of the Australian market moving for 30 minutes to 5-minute settlements. And so as you'll see our VTS platform, which we have retained 100% ownership as a contract to provide those services, and that's performing exceptionally well in providing that 5-minute market data and other solutions into the market. You will have seen that the Australian energy markets or regulators have identified that they want pretty much full-scale rollout of smart meters by 2030. And so we're seeing the velocity of people looking for contracts to be deployed, increasing above those that are already contributed.

Great. Awesome. And then just another one on metering, was just the book value of the JV $684 million. I'm assuming is that got some write-down on the intangibles on it as well or...

Only what flows through the P&L, if you like, so it has because we didn't book our share of the losses, if you could see what I'm saying. So it comes through that way.

Okay. Awesome. And then maybe just lastly on DPP4, the final, like in terms of, obviously, I think the draft you would have been reasonably happy with. I'm just wondering, as we go into the final, what are the kind of risks the upside and downside that potentially could happen as part of that process?

Yes. Look, I mean, I think we would say that we think the Commission struck the right balance, recognizing first and foremost that the biggest shift that occurred with regards to consumer prices was actually really just relating to the WACC shift as a function of the historically low interest rates back in 2019 versus where they sit now. That's just a function just as of somewhat have been on term deposit at the very low rate and then 5 years later, it's materially increased. And it's important to note that that's been pushed out as not a one-off as we talked about, it's been smoothed over the 5 years. And our issue was that over that 5-year period, we should be able to recover all the expected earnings over that 5-year period. So it doesn't spill over into another period. With regards to risks, I think that the Commission will obviously take any feedback from submissions. We have seen, as Doug mentioned, the interest rates have shifted down, but from what was evident back in May. So that does have an impact on us with regards to where final prices would land. But other than that, I think that the approach we've taken with regards to our specific focus on capital and the amount we want to spend being really focused around the known capital expenditure and removing out of that whole profile stuff that is pretty uncertain. And I think that's been proven to be a really constructive approach with the Commission because trying to forecast at this point in time, what's going to happen with EV uptake or expenditure on resilience where we still wait for decisions on tree vegetation and other actions out of the government would be kind of irresponsible to load up the asset base. So I think we're more immune from further changes to our CapEx and OpEx than others. And then lastly, on our OpEx side, we also recognize the positive step forward by the Commission to give a good innovation allowance to us. And I think our track record demonstrates the relationships with really focusing on how can we build efficient networks, collaborating and partnering with offshore parties such as Amazon and Google X and other technology partners is critical to enabling that transition.

There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. McKay for closing remarks.

Thank you. If there are no further questions, we'll end the teleconference and the webcast. If analysts and investors have further questions, please feel free to contact Jason. For the media, please contact Matt Britton or call our usual media phone number. Thank you, everyone, for joining us.