Verbio SE (VBK) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good afternoon. On behalf of Montega, welcome to the earnings call of VERBIO Vereinigte BioEnergie AG following the publication annual report of the financial year 2022, 2023. The CEO, Claus Sauter; and the CFO, Olaf Troeber, will give you a presentation on the results in a moment, and the floor will be opened for all upcoming questions following the presentation. We're looking forward to the results. And with this, I hand over to Mr. Sauter.

Thank you very much Mrs. Pauls. Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to today's presentation. I'm here with Olaf Troeber, our CFO today. It's great to have you join us on this call. We cover our fourth quarter and full year 2022, 2023 results. Furthermore, we'll give you an idea of what to expect for the running year. The strategic update for the midterm will be given at our Capital Markets Day in Schwedt on Thursday. For all of you who have registered and will be coming, we look forward to meeting you in person. I'm especially excited that all of my fellow Board members will be there and give you some more detailed insights into our business. Turning now the focus on the actual business year 2022, 2023, I'm personally [ ave ] of what the VERBIO team has delivered in the past year. And all during somewhat uncertain times, there are 3 highlights that I want to point out. First, we have achieved our second best EBITDA in the history of VERBIO. Second, we have generated -- we have generated 3.4 million tonnes of CO2 savings worldwide, 40% stems from advanced second-generation biofuels. This is a significant increase and represents 20% growth year-on-year on CO2 savings, while production volumes measured in gigawatt hours increased by 8% and underpinning the increased share of high-saving second-generation fuels. Hence, we are well underway to achieve our 8 million tonnes CO2 saving targets in 2026. And third, we are doubling down on our strategy. We have completed our Nevada plant in Iowa and will be commissioning the combined ethanol and RNG plant shortly. In South Bend, we have already started construction, and we are very excited about opportunities in North America. We are investing in the expansion of our retail gas station network with already 9 gas station operational. And we have commenced the construction of our ethenolysis plant in Bitterfeld and the catalyst factory in Hungary to be able to bring our green solutions to the chemical industry. Let me give you a quick overview over our 2022, 2023 key figures. We achieved record production volumes for all of our main products. Our biodiesel production volumes increased by 8% year-on-year. mostly driven by better utilization in Canada. Bioethanol volumes increased by 20% year-on-year mainly due to the acquisition of the South Bend plant in May. Our RNG production grew 22% organically. Our EBITDA for 2022, 2023 was EUR 240.3 million. While the results don't meet our initial expectations of EUR 300 million due to unexpected in fraudulent Chinese biodiesel imports, we are in line with our most recent guidance of EUR 240 million EBITDA. Our net cash at year-end was down to EUR 57.4 million due to mainly growth investments of more than EUR 250 million. The equity ratio at year-end stood at 70.3% and remained largely stable. Let me now hand over to Olaf to run through our Q4 results. Over -- Olaf take it.

Could you give me the mouse, Claus? Thanks. Key figures. Here we are. Thanks, Claus. And good afternoon, good morning, everyone, depending on the locations wherever you are. Turning to our fourth quarter. In the fourth quarter, we reported an EBITDA of over EUR 26.8 million, in line with expectations. Last year is not a suitable point of comparison because we had an advantageous long position in feedstocks if you might recall, which resulted in the most successful quarter in the company's history. We will delve into more detail in a second. But as you can see from the graph, our ethanol and biomethane segment overcompensated the negative result in the Biodiesel segment and showed the best quarterly result of the past financial year. Once again, this proves the resilence of our unique product portfolio. No. Yes. While we operated nearly at full capacity in Europe and overseas, European biodiesel prices came down strongly year-on-year as much as EUR 1,000. You might recall, we had a spike in biodiesel prices of approximately EUR 2,400 a year ago. And quarter-on-quarter, we faced downward trend in the biodiesel prices of EUR 400 per tonne on average due to Asian biodiesel imports, Claus will touch upon in a minute. Hence, sales came also down to EUR 266.4 million. This coupled with less favorable purchasing costs led to a close to break-even gross margin and hence a negative EBITDA. While the imports are not fully resolved, fundamentals have started to recover, and hence, market spreads and specifically, our production margins look much better now. As I said, prices have strongly -- or I would also say, temporarily deteriorated in our fourth quarter, which you can see in the right chart, it depicts development of European FAME minus 10 biodiesel prices and rapeseed oil prices. As we buy our feedstock 2 to 3 months in advance, it becomes quite clear that our close-to-breakeven gross margin was held up by our valuable by-products as well as the greenhouse gas premium for higher CO2 reduction. On the right chart, you can see the development of the corresponding market spreads. We have been very outspoken on the reason for declining biodiesel prices and Claus will quickly give you an update on the Asian biodiesel imports.

Okay. Thank you, Olaf. So where do we stand on Chinese biodiesel imports, which are likely produced from Indonesian palm oil, but falsely labeled as advanced biofuels. You see here on the chart, the development and all by the Chinese export volumes have slowed down from the peak in January. As you can see from the graph on the slide, the volumes still surpass the volumes in previous years while the exports of feedstocks, we have both feedstock exports from China and product exports, and this is the product, the biodiesel. So the feedstock remained equally high. However, in mid-August 2023, the EU finally launched an investigation into the large-scale fraud in biodiesel supply chains from Southeast Asia to Europe. The amounts are huge. We are talking about billions of euros here. The investigation is about tariff and tax evasion because that's easier than to investigate into environmental fraud, but it's better than to have no investigation and we are now waiting to see the custom start-up for September. We know that the European Commission had already started on-site investigations on other plants, but to give you a bit of a time frame, which, of course, all of you are interested in, in the next phase, delegation [indiscernible] has visited facilities in Belgium on September 15. And during this visit, they intended to gather information about process technology and market conditions, for advanced biofuels as well as the implications of increased import quantities. Following this, an evaluation of Chinese producers will be conducted and the entire process must be completed within 9 months. just a second. So aside from the effect on biodiesel prices, this also has an impact on the greenhouse gas quota. Just a second, please -- I have this chart May -- biodiesel imports. Okay. So it has an impact on the quota prices because all of a sudden, there is so much more yet questionable high greenhouse gas reduction available pressuring prices downwards. Notably, we only delivered CO2 reduction quota contracts that were still closed when the prices were above 300 metric -- EUR 300 per metric tonne. Quota prices are relevant for both the Biodiesel segment and the ethanol biomethane segment. And with this, I hand back to Olaf.

Thanks, Claus. Now the next slide -- It's actually the current slide, bioethanol strong recovery quarter-on-quarter. For the bioethanol segment, you can see a steep increase in bioethanol production volumes. On the back of our South Bend acquisition as well as a fully organic increase in RNG production volumes. This covered with a higher ethanol price with higher ethanol prices led to an increase in revenues quarter-on-quarter. As Claus already mentioned, we built only previously sold greenhouse gas reduction volumes, but a remainder being stored on our balance sheet at production costs. We are happy to have achieved EUR 36.2 million EBITDA in the best quarterly result in the segment in the past year. This is an increase of more than 100% quarter-on-quarter, thanks to additional RNG volumes and greenhouse gas reduction volumes being sold. South Bend also already contributed with a positive result. Organic growth stood at 89% quarter-on-quarter. Year-on-year, much lower ethanol spreads could not be offset despite additional RNG volumes and considerable amounts of LNG volumes being sold. Let's have a quick look at the price and spread development for bioethanol. Following the decline in spreads due to larger bioethanol imports from Brazil, the spreads are holding up at an attractive level. The arbitrage for all regions remain close, boding well for the European bioethanol market. With respect to South Bend, while we continue to be very excited about the SBE acquisition, and we are positively surprised by the results in May and June this year. Further optimization measures are still necessary to keep production stable. In fact, had we included SBE from the start of our financial year, it would have contributed approximately EUR 5.5 million in losses to our EBT. For the running year, we expect to be breakeven or post a small positive EBITDA depending on the margins in United States. We have, however, already started initial construction measures for building our RNG plant. The [indiscernible] production will be phased out with the start of our LNG production. I will now give you an outlook for our current financial year. Here we are. We expect an EBITDA of EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million we have decided to give a range due to the uncertainties we are facing this year because the cost of Asian biodiesel imports. Let me quickly give you an overview of our assumptions. We expect a high utitilization in the Biodiesel segment, I would say, as always. By doubling the capacities for advanced biodiesel, the annual total capacity for the fiscal year 2023, 2024 will be adjusted to a whopping 710,000 metric tons from previously 660,000 metric tons. In Canada, we have contracted -- we have contracts in place that provide a satisfactory margin in the current financial year. On top of the additional ethanol capacities in South Bend of 250,000 metric tons. The ethanol plant in Nevada is already fully considered in our annual total capacity of 800,000 metric tonnes of bioethanol. The capacity was previously at 342,000 metric tonnes. However, the Nevada plant will only reach full capacity in the fiscal year 2024, 2025. We face a ramp-up phase this financial year. The same applies for the recently commissioned biomethane plant in Nevada and hence, the unit will be loss-making in the financial year '23, '24. In Germany, the annual biomethane capacity is being adjusted upwards due to efficiency measures. In total, this will result in an annual production capacity of 1,980 gigawatt hour. I think it's real to say -- let's keep the 2,000 gigawatt hours in mind. For the fiscal year 2023, 2024, previously 1,300 gigawatt hours a moderate utilization rate is expected despite a significant growth in production quantities. Furthermore, to ensure full utilization of VERBIO's proprietary fuel station infrastructure here in Germany. The Board currently anticipate a further buildup of biomethane volumes in inventory. As always, we base our price assumptions on prevailing forward curves. However, for greenhouse gas quota prices, we anticipate a slightly higher pricing than what is currently displayed by brokers. We expect to have a negative net cash position of EUR 150 million (sic) [ minus EUR 150 million ] to minus EUR 110 million by year-end. Aside from our EBITDA forecast, this also considers CapEx of approximately EUR 300 million. This CapEx figure harbors investments into our announced capacity expansions and the building out of the ethenolysis plant as well -- ethenolysis plant here in Germany as well as some other projects that we have in the pipeline to capitalize on the defossilization of our economies. Now back to Claus, will give you an update on our new segmentation plans.

So we are very well aware that you are very interested in splitting out second-generation and first-generation economics and so are we which is why we initially planned to change our reporting segments with our Q1 reporting. Our team has worked very diligently on this, however, as you know, we run biorefineries and to separate second generation from first generation requires internal cross-charging and complex cost, [ a lot of patience ] methods. At the end, we felt like we would take away transparency rather then providing additional transparency like we initially anticipated. We will continue to work on this and test it internally, through and will come back to you with an update. And now I hand over to Mrs. Pauls for the Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] Please go Adrian Pehl.

All right. I hope you can hear me.

Loud and clear.

Actually on the guidance, the question, Mr. Troeber, you also mentioned that you have baked in a slightly higher greenhouse gas quota price. I was just wondering if you could review what level you are looking at for this one. And also, you mentioned, obviously, you based the guidance on prevailing forward prices. I mean, on the other hand, obviously, we are now a little bit advanced already at the end of September. I was just thinking that actually spreads must have been quite reasonable, quite good in the first quarter. So what is the underlying base, is it rather end of June you're looking at and then forward for the fiscal year? Or is this rather end of September? And then lastly on the guidance. Are there any other factors we should take into account besides market price fluctuation, obviously, that explains the guidance range on the lower end than on the upper end, sort of EUR 200 million versus EUR 250 million. Let's take it here. And then I have some questions actually on the filling stations in biomethane.

Okay. Then let's start here. First, the assumption for us regarding the greenhouse gas savings is that we expect that it will recover to EUR 250 per metric tonne. Second, our guidance is placed on the forward curves like always. And the forward curves are inverted. So the more we look into the future, the smaller the margins are. But this is how we are doing our planning and how we reflect the market. Usually, when we are reaching the delivery month, it comes up. The curves are usually always inverted. So what about the first quarter? You saw that the margins are back for RME, rapeseed methyl ester and finally, this is supporting what I told you right now. So in the month, we see quite reasonable margins for RME. For ethanol, also here, prices recovered. And as Olaf mentioned, the arbitrage for the U.S. and for Brazil is closed. We had a very bad harvest in Germany for the farmers. So the qualities are low. And that means, for us, we have plenty of feedstock at reasonable prices. On the chart, what I show you here at the moment, this is ethanol against wheat. You know that we have the flexibility to use any kind of grain. So we use the cheapest one at the moment. We are still flooded directly from the agriculture with this low-quality grain. And now we see that a lot of corn from the Ukraine is coming. So there is a big pressure on the feedstock market. So regarding the first quarter and the second quarter, it looks quite positive. Anyway, we have this uncertainty, how it is going on with China. And we see -- or we saw that the imports were going down. And when I follow the price that -- then our case at the moment is just one example. What's happening at the moment with Chinese exports to Europe. So at the end of the day, when it comes out that China is used to circumvent the antidumping duty from Indonesia, China has to be blocked as well. I want to give you also an additional information, what you didn't ask yet. From 2021 to -- from 2022 to 2023, the quota in Germany was increased by 1%. It went from 7% to 8%. 1% is 1.5 million tonnes of CO2 savings. For 2024, the quota will increase by 2%. So it will go from 8% to 10%, which means additional 3 million tonnes of CO2 savings. So to go from 8% to 10% is at least an increase of 25%. So the market is growing, demand will go up. If we are able to manage that the Chinese -- and I have still this position that it is fraudulent, not all of it, but the lion's share because in these factories where they were producing normal biodiesel, it's not possible to process the feedstocks, which are applicable for advanced biofuel. We have a separate technology to do this, and we had to build a separate new plant, at least we -- it took 2.5 years to bring that onstream and the Chinese are doing it in 6 months. This is just not possible. So bringing down the import volumes from China coupled with the increase of quota next year should have a more positive outcome yet. That positive effect is not reflected in the forward curve. So because of this, it's also not reflected in our guidance. But there is uncertainty, and we don't like to build [indiscernible], we like to be down on earth. And for the first and second quarter, we will be quite positive. Did I answer all your questions?

Yes. Another question is actually on the biomethane side? Well, first of all, I was trying to figure out how much biomethane in quota you have stored actually in the balance sheet. Maybe that was a remark in the report. I just missed, but maybe you could give us the figure. And then more generally, since this is obviously things to each other the process and the progress on the filling stations. How is that moving because it looks like that it is a little bit slower than probably originally anticipated and taking your remarks in the report, it sounds like in the current fiscal year, you were rather net storing additional biomethane instead of net selling from the store by pile, basically. Is that correct?

Yes. Okay. I actually don't have the separation between renewable natural gas in the grid and the amount of CO2 quota, which is where the RNG, let's call it, I prefer the English word, not biomethane, I think the English word renewable natural gas is much better. So we're talking about RNG. So RNG, which is in the grid and RNG, which was already brought into transport, which is creating the CO2 savings, but we can provide you this number. To come back to your assumption, Well, there are 2 important changes. Right now, the quota prices are under pressure. And we have the luxury to be able to store the gas and the grid and the CO2 savings. On this, let's say pressure on the quotas related to the Chinese imports. We are -- on this price, we can sell every day. So we don't see that it will stay like this. And we expect that it will recover, latest when there is a decision for the Chinese imports. Second is that we have the filling stations, yes, LNG. 9 are already operational and every month 1 and 2 is coming there. And I think now everybody understands the rationale behind that decision to go downstream because the limiting effect -- the limiting factor will now be the gate to the client. What is the regulatory change? The regulatory changes, that there is now the possibility to move the green attributes at an LNG terminal from compressed natural gas in the grid to fossil LNG at the terminal. That is completely new. The European grid is now open. So yet as a German producer, we were not able because Germany has no liquefaction terminal or no LNG terminal. So now we can swap the molecules to Spain, to France, to Belgium, even to Poland and bring the LNG, the liquefied molecules to our filling stations. And that is the reason -- it's just -- it was just recently decided 2, 3 weeks ago, some small administration has to be done. But we as VERBIO, we are working 10 years on this mass balancing. So that is the point. And once with every LNG operation, which is online and the fact that we have a lot of molecules in the grid, we are now able to monetize the green attribute at our own LNG filling stations. The LNG filling stations are now slowly becoming the limiting factor. The second big change is maybe you recognized the bankruptcy of BMP Greengas. It is a daughter company from [ EnBW ]. There was recently article in [indiscernible] and they were selling big amounts of renewable natural gas to a lot of cities. In this article, it was written EUR 750 million loss. So what we see now is additional demand coming from cities who had contracts with BMP. And we signed already first small amount at reasonable prices, which are far away from the sales prices BMP had. I must say BMP was getting bigger and bigger and at the end of the day, they were playing a questionable business model as long as there was enough renewable natural gas in the market, it works. But at the end of the day, they failed because they sold a lot, and then the situation changed because more and more renewable natural gas is now going to transport regarding the greenhouse gas reduction. And prices tripled from their former -- the former situation. So that means, yes, it's now easier to make LNG, BioLNG from renewable natural gas. That's the first thing. Second is that there is a new market opening now on reasonable prices, which is outside the transport segment. So to keep the gas in the grid was not a wrong decision. Finally, we didn't have an option because we didn't want to give so much margin away the fuel station operators for CNG. So I think it was a good decision. And now I think we are accelerating the monetization of the molecules. And in parallel, we follow the development on the quota prices, as I said, 25% more volume next year, only for Germany. And if we are able to couple it with less volumes coming from China, there will be very fast shortage in the market and the recovery from the quotas. As I mentioned already, our assumption is that we are going that it will come very fast back to EUR 250 per metric tonne of CO2 savings. Okay. Yes [indiscernible], right there, you have more questions?

No I'm fine.

And we'll move forward with the questions of Constantin Hesse. Mr. Hesse, you can unmet yourself now.

A couple of questions from my side. More focused on M&A. I think there were some comments before about potential acquisitions in the U.S. I think we were talking about a number between 2 and 5 until potentially at the end of the next financial year. So if you could comment maybe anything on M&A that is that you're seeing or any is there even potential for M&A this financial year? And related to that, looking at your cash position, EUR 170 million, EUR 300 million CapEx. So any potential requirements for cash that you would have to bring in from outside?

Okay. the South Bend acquisition in Indiana was an M&A transaction. So we are permanently looking on new targets because it takes also some time. But to acquire 2 to 5 sites until the next business year is absolutely impossible. Right now, we are commissioning the plant in Iowa that -- to make it profitable that we have their positive cash flows. And Olaf mentioned that the contribution from the U.S. on an EBITDA margins will be negative. That is correct. But if you consider the IRA and we are getting an investment tax credit also for the Iowa investment, then cash-wise, U.S. is already positive cash-wise. So at the moment, the pure focus and we are with a big team in Iowa at the moment is to commission the plant and to bring it on stream as fast as possible. Second, Olaf mentioned it, we are going to start South Bend. South Bend is an ethanol plant who is operational. But we have also to invest there and install there our renewable natural gas technology facility. It's a USD 230 million [ investment ]. So -- and right now, with these projects, [indiscernible] going everywhere, not only with the projects also [indiscernible]. Our technology is not so simple. It is on the one hand side, how to build the plant [indiscernible] So we are onboarding people. And I think I don't have to tell you to get engineers at the moment, in Europe and the same in the U.S. is difficult. So our main focus is at the moment, not acquiring the next ethanol plant and there might be maybe the next one until the next business year. Our main focus is at the moment to onboard the people to teach them that -- I want that the U.S. is becoming a cash cow sooner than later. This is our focus. There we are concentrating. And in parallel, we think about how to multiply our business model. But there is nothing which can be disclosed at the moment. I think it is clear that Brio is growing, that we are investing into the future. The IRA is -- with the investment tax credit and the production tax credit is the perfect environment for us. It is a double turbo. But one step after the next.

And we received another question via audio line from Jonah Emerson.

So I've got another one concerning our guidance and specifically the lower end of guidance. So the EUR 200 million, does this also take into consideration a quota price of EUR 250 million, meaning the big difference of EUR 200 million to EUR 250 million is mainly driven by the spreads.

No, no, -- the lower -- so you mean if the lower end is based on EUR 250 million?

Yes.

No. I have just to look to Olaf because he made the planning. No, it's not EUR 250 million. There we even expect a lower price. I think it should be the EUR 180 million, what we have at the moment.

Okay interesting, interesting. Good to know. And then concerning the spread is probably also lower than they are currently are?

Yes. Sorry, repeat, No, no, repeat.

And then the biofuel spreads. So biodiesel and bioethanol. Are they at the same level? Or do you expect improving spreads also on the lower end of guidance?

Here, the spreads between the rapeseed oil and the biodiesel is based on the forward curve. Then we don't have to take an assumption. And the same with ethanol. The only thing where we have to really make an assumption is on the quota price. So right now, we are at EUR 180 million or close to EUR 200 million. It depends. And there, we expect that at least it goes to EUR 250 million.

Perfect. And then concerning the Chemicals business, you mentioned it a few times. When do you expect to make the first revenues out of the Chemical business.

Not before 2026, 2027. Okay. But look, Don't expect at the first step too much. This is an investment into the future. This is an investment showing that VERBIO is not dependent on the transport sector. But here, we are a first mover. So our expectation, I would say, until 2030 is not that we are making higher margins than in the transport sector. The transport sector right now until 2030 is quite attractive. Next year, we will have 10% greenhouse gas quota, 2024, and it will go to 25%. So there is -- for the rest 6 years, there is an annual growth from 2.5% per year approximately. So transport will be dominating our business. But starting now, [ ethanol use ],and we have similar ideas with ethanol is giving value to the fact that our molecules have a green carbon. And as I always say, chemistry, you cannot decarbonize you can just defossilize. And I think just at that point here, what I also want to address, but what was not your question, VERBIO is now becoming a global company or we are already global with North America, India, which has huge potential India and 2 weeks ago, I was in Brazil, so South America. When we are talking about sustainable feedstock, then we have to have a look on the local market. In Europe, when we talk about sustainable feedstock, we are just talking about residues and waste. In the Midwest and the United States, biodiesel made from vegetable oil from soybean oil or canola is an advanced biofuel in the United States. The corn in the Midwest is a sustainable feedstock. And when you are in Brazil, then all of their feedstocks, what they are using and ethanol production there is always combined with sugar product. So they use the sugarcane, but there is a certain amount of [indiscernible], which -- where you cannot make sugar for human consumption. So this kind of residue goes to ethanol production. So we have very much to look on the details. I mean India, there is no doubt there are hundreds of millions of, tons of real residues and the fact that now it will start the next week that India again is burning and that the haze is all over the continent. So there is no doubt there is hundred million tonnes of paddy of rice straw available. But I think now as a global player in this game and also in this call, I think the lion's share of the participants of their call are European. We have to think about the definitions, and we cannot go with our European glasses to all of that market. And I think that is the attractiveness now of our business model that with a global network, we will be able to provide the right molecule based on the regulation, the market we want to address. And that gives additional profitability. So I think right now, I don't see anybody who goes that way like VERBIO going. And in this phase where we are actually -- North America is not making real money. We just have to start up the first plant. But in this business here and in the next, we will show up with reasonable figures from the U.S. That is just something that I wanted to address. We -- it's not a good idea to go with our European glasses everywhere in the world.

All right. Understood. But maybe one final question. This is about the reserves. I understood. I understand you already talked about this a bit, but just as a rough estimate, really rough. Currently, how many gigawatt hours of renewable natural gas, do you have in reserves? Can you disclose this?

In the inventories?

Yes.

I think it was 750 gigawatt the last time, gigawatt hours. And I don't know have the actual figure, but it is more, under 1 terawatt hour. Okay. I think -- yes, let's see -- we can provide you this number. Olaf will do it. Jonah, we have the number, 820 gigawatt hours.

And we received a follow-up question from Mr. Adrian Pehl, please go ahead.

Just want to make sure on the guidance, both on the side of the IRA effects obviously...

It's not included.

Okay. So the possibility is probably however, to, let's say, sell significant portion of, let's say, the ITC basically so that should help you to finance the EUR 300 million CapEx, but that's also not included. So that is coming on top of what you said on the financial guidance, right?

Yes. And if we are -- there is demand at the moment for investment tax credits, but it will depend if we have to take a much too high discount, then -- it depends on the discounts, how and when we are monetizing it. Right now, with our investment plan for the next 12 months, even if we are going down to net debt, minus EUR 100 million, we are not nervous that I think our balance sheet, the equity ratio will be still at 60% to 70%, which is a reasonable figure. Okay. But I think we have much, much more questions. I see 5 questions in the chat, can you continue please, Mrs.

Yes. And we do have also one question via audio line from Niklas Yannik Becker. Please go ahead Mr. Becker.

Two questions from my side. The first one is on your customer negotiations for 2024, which you usually conclude by November or early December. I assume you will pick those conversations up soon, if you haven't done so already. And while in the past, you've fixed substantial amount above EUR 300 per tonne of CO2. What do you expect for this year's negotiations will you fix some parts of your GHG quotas? Or do you rather prefer to do floating contracts?

The negotiations started already. So that is the first time -- first part of your question, yes, we are negotiating the contracts for next year. And on the level for the quota, what we have at the moment, we prefer floating contracts based on the quotation.

Understood. And then just one second question also on the quota market. I think last time we spoke, you mentioned that the quota market pretty much had dried up, and that was also one of the reasons why the quota price was hovering at around EUR 250 per tonne since March. What is the reason in your view for the most recent price decline below EUR 200 per tonne? Is this due to fraud sellers entering the market? Or is there anything else you might have heard from the industry?

Recently, the main sellers for quota and it's announced was [ Shell and PP ]. So why they are selling quota. It's coming to the new negotiations and for sure in this phase of negotiation, they want to show us where is the quota price at the moment. So there is pressure in the market. There are buyers and sellers. Some of them have maybe too much, but I mentioned we will need additional 3 million tonnes of CO2 savings next year. So for sure, in the past, we made fixed contracts on the CO2 savings. But we say, hey, on that price, what we see at the moment, and you see that the production is going down. A lot of European producers are not able to supply biofuel on that level what we have at the moment. And when you look about the Chinese imports. The logistic cost is about $250 per metric tonne. Related to the actual prices, this is a margin of 15%, 16%. So only the additional costs, the feedstock is the same. So it's just not possible. But there is the quota price. The market is very narrow, not very liquid. So with some amounts you put into this market, you have a big impact. The question is really how much volume is behind the prices what we see at the moment. And VERBIO is a big player on that market? And I think that the volumes there behind are not so big because finally, most of the producers are not able to supply quotas at EUR 170 or EUR 180 per metric tonne. So I think it's part of the game.

And we received a few via our chat. And I do think that the first question has already been answered from Marcus [indiscernible], but will read it out. For how long have you been storing GHG quota, when are you willing to sell them? And another question from...

But wait, wait, wait. I will answer it. The CO2 savings, we can leave on our balance sheet until eternity and yes, we will sell it when we will have -- when we will see a reasonable price. And the price what we are seeing at the moment is not reasonable from our point of view.

Okay. Great. And what is the new time line for the reporting segment?

This year, we will stay with this kind of reporting. And the main driver, how I mentioned in my presentation is we had conversation with investors. We had our first road show a few months ago in the United States, very interesting meetings. And the clear outcome was that we will take transparency away. And so because of this, Alina was especially recommending and say, hey, we wanted to bring more transparency in the market. But that we cannot ensure this, and that is the reason why we say, okay, let's stay in this reporting system. Our clear target is to bring more transparency. So we will give additional information like we are doing at the moment. So 40% of our biofuel production is now advanced. And it means for the German market that double quota. So everybody can make his model and have a good estimation. And we also see that from our analysts the, let's say, the estimations are getting better and better, so that it makes sense to leave it like this. But I know that we are on the consensus at the moment, but please, you have to take into account that there is a distortion in the market, and you can do nothing against fraud. As a company, we can do nothing against fraud. That is really a black swan event. And it's up to the government or the duty control in Europe and also in Germany, that they try to get back the control and then the market demand is growing very fast. We have everything needed to monetize the molecules. We have our own downstream business. So now when the market is growing and it is accelerating, really to be able to supply the amount of molecules, which are needed to follow this demand is significant and to build additional capacities and to bring more capacity onstream, especially in Europe will take time. Right now, I don't know any big projects in Europe to provide additional big capacities for advanced biofuels. So to get their back control on the Chinese imports is very important. And finally, we reflect that uncertainty in conservative guidance.

And received a few questions regarding India. How is business going in India? Are the results in India lower than expected? And how long will it take to become EBITDA positive?

We are already EBITDA positive at 40% utilization, but there is still a way to go. The profitability is not how we expect it. The plant what we are having in India is 20 megawatts. So on 40% utilization, we are talking about 80 gigawatt hours which is not a big amount. So the plant in Lehragaga is the blueprint for that continent. And if you compare India with Brazil and the power of Brazil, what means biofuel, India has similar possibilities, but there is nothing. So there is big potential, but we need some regulatory changes. 15 months ago, we were at the government. We addressed 4 changes what we needed. Three are already executed. And once we have a reasonable business case and the profitability, what we are expecting, and I said EBITDA, we are already positive. Then we want to roll it out whatever it means to roll it out, but our intention was not to go to India and build there 1 renewable natural gas plant. By the way, we are by far the biggest producer of renewable natural gas in India with 20 megawatts, which is ridiculous, but we are by far the biggest producer and we have a good contact to the Ministry for oil and gas. India, and maybe you saw from the G20 meeting, Modi, establish there the global biofuel alliance with India, with Brazil and with the United States. And we were also able to give our, let's say, [indiscernible]. So we were informed that this will happen. So we have really a good line there, but small things have to be done. And I think that next year, we will be able to develop the real big plans. What does it mean to roll it out if we are doing it alone or together with a partner. But we want to monetize our first-mover pain.

And is the scenario of EUR 70 million EBIT still valid?

Sorry, what?

The question was, is the scenario of EUR 70 million EBIT still valid from Mr. [ Andres Juan ].

My impression is that the results in India are lower than expected, correct, is the scenario of EUR 7 million EBIT still valid. What does it mean 7 million. INR 7 million or EUR 7 million and EUR 70 million is far away. So EBIT at the moment is negative, but EBITDA is positive and...

You just corrected. It is Indiana not India. [indiscernible] Indiana.

Yes, yes. Yes. related -- once Indiana -- okay, yes, it's written there. Okay. [indiscernible] Okay. It's correct written. It's Indiana. Yes, related to our competitive advantage with the renewable natural gas, plus the production tax credit, we are talking about EUR 70 million EBITDA advantage. But right now, at the moment, in the U.S., the margins for ethanol are quite reasonable. So margins would be even better. So here also in the United States, we had a bumper corn harvest a lot of corn was harvested, weather was perfect. Corn prices went from $6.20 per bushel to $4.50. So it's a good year for everybody who is producing ethanol in the Midwest.

Okay. And one last question before we come to an end of today's earnings call from Mr. Thomas Schießle. Is the Canada business, not only in full year 2023 to 2024, sustainable EBITDA positive?

I don't know what he means with sustainable, but Canada is EBITDA-positive. Mid -- so not double-digit USD 1 million single digit, but it is positive. About biodiesel in North America, I have to say that there is so huge amount of announcement what they want to produce of HVO, hydrated vegetable oil, huge announcements, millions of tons, especially at the West Coast but everywhere in the United States. Right now, we are hesitated to invest a lot of money in balance. So we have there a business case, which is quite attractive for us. And for sure, it can continue as long as there is no regulatory change. But it would be necessary to invest their money in Welland to bring the factory to the level where are our European production. So we are still not there to get a feeling where the U.S. biodiesel market is going there. HVO is a different technology. It's closer to diesel and it's easier to make sustainable air fuels, which is an advantage, but we are talking about much, much higher in CapEx. On the other side, if you have a biodiesel production, you have the possibility to make high-value coproducts like pharma glycerine like [ sterile ]. So Welland, we will continue, like we are doing it at the moment as long as possible, as long we have the right feeling how the -- where the market is going to at the moment. There is a big change in the industry. There are a lot of assets -- biodiesel assets on the market everywhere in the U.S. Let's see the next 12 months how it will develop. Right now, we have no plan to invest additional money in Welland. But utilization is good. We have a margin and let's see what's coming next. Then I have also one more question. I just see it there.

We just received a last question from Mr. [indiscernible]. He's excited about biomethane business area. Jefferies forecast for 2023 to 2026 regarding biomethane EBITDA over EUR 175 million. Is this realistic?

How many terawatt hours will you produce in 2025, 2026? So the planning, I don't know what is the assumption behind the Jefferies, but in 2025, 2026, we should have 2 terawatt hours of production capacity. RNG production needs still some time to ramp it up. But anyway, we will have in 2025, 2026 to terawatt hours of capacity. Yes, and do we think that EUR 175 million EBITDA? I'm sorry, I'm not able to ask this question now. Maybe he could come back to Alina, and we will check it.

Yes. And I would say due to the [indiscernible] of time we come to an end of today's earnings call. And we kindly ask Mr. [indiscernible] to get in touch with Mrs. Kohler. As already said, to further question [indiscernible] at a later time, or your questions haven't been answered, please feel free to contact Mrs. Kohler. And I would hand over for some final remarks to Mr. Sauter.

Yes. But I would like to finish this question because do you see a real chance to achieve your best result in the medium-term to reach or exceed your best result in the medium-term? Well, I think last business year, 2021-2022 was extraordinary. But we also know that again was the first time, I don't know, the war came back to Europe, Ukraine is a big player on the agriculture market and also the Russians. So there was a lot of distortions and we made it good. But the EUR 240 million what we're making this year under that circumstances, Chinese imports has even a higher value for me than the last business year. So VERBIO is growing and the demand on CO2 savings is just huge. We announced now that this year, we had 3.4 million tonnes of CO2 savings. And this is, let's say, a good benchmark. And until 2026, we want to go from 3 million -- 3.4 million tonnes of CO2 savings to 8 million tonnes of CO2 savings. So we are more than doubling. And that is not a very ambitious target. This is a realistic target, and then we want to continue. Just remember, we are talking about 50 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions globally, 50 billion tonnes and VERBIO is going from 3.4 million to 8 million tonnes. So for sure, the day will come when we will exceed even the result from last year. And that is our clear focus, grow baby grow, but grow everywhere. So it also means that we need the staff. We need the organization in place. And if we are doing 1 plant in the U.S. or if we are doing 2 or 10 plants in the U.S. then it's just on the site, but that is our clear message, grow baby grow, and we are on a good way. and that's the target for the next years. Fortunately, we are in a market where everywhere in the world, the demand is growing, and the challenge is just huge. So now I'm finished. Mrs. Pauls and I think, yes, time is over. Everybody who was not able to address its questions. But anyway, I addressed everything what I wanted to address at this call. So I don't know what would be left over. But who has questions and was not able to address it here, please, feel free to call Alina Kohler. Anyway, I think that some of the people who were in the call now, we will be able to welcome in 2 days for our Capital Markets Day in Schwedt. Thank you very much for everybody who was joining. Thank you, Mr. Pauls, for organizing the call. You made a great job and I'm looking forward to our next call. Thank you very much.

Thank you very much for listening, and we wish you all a lovely week. Goodbye.