VERBUND AG (VER) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Dear ladies and gentlemen, welcome to the conference call of VERBUND AG. At our customers' request that this conference will be recorded. [Operator Instructions] May I now hand you over to Peter Kollmann, who will lead you through this conference. Please go ahead, sir.

Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, let me welcome you to our presentation for the first half year '21. And let me thank you for joining today's conference call. I hope you are all well and healthy. Before we move into the analysis of the business development for VERBUND AG. Let me make a few general comments about the half year. The business development was satisfactory as the energy business environment strongly improved, especially prices for European CO2 certificates and prices for primary energy sources increased being key factors for wholesale energy prices in Europe. The sustainable positioning of VERBUND is perfectly directed towards the increasingly ambitious decarbonization efforts within the EU and Austria. These positive factors contributed to the value development of the group. VERBUND shares ended the first half with a value of EUR 78, representing a performance of 11% year-to-date with the corresponding market capitalization of approximately EUR 27 billion. With that, we are, by far, the #1 in the Austrian stock market and among the biggest utilities in Europe. Against this background, let me now present the figures for the first half year 2021. At the beginning, let me highlight the most important influencing factors for the results development, which you already know and which are, of course, the prices and our hydro coefficient. The average achieved contract price increased from EUR 44.5 for the first half year 2020 to EUR 46.6 for the first half '21. The hydro coefficient determining the generation from our run-of-river hydropower plant was lower than the long-term average, but slightly higher than in the first half year 2020. Production from our hydro reservoirs was much lower compared to last year. On the other hand, there was a positive contribution from the initial consolidation of Gas Connect Austria. Contributions from flexibility products, especially control of energy and pumping increased compared to last year. The impact of these factors and the key figures is as follows: EBITDA increased by 2.5% to EUR 655 million and the group result increased by 4.5% to EUR 325 million. The operating cash flow was lower at a level of EUR 426 million. That's minus 21% (sic) [ 27.1% ]. The free cash flow was negative at a level of minus EUR 473 million, obviously, due to the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria, higher dividend payments and CapEx. Net debt increased by 48% to a level of EUR 2.6 billion. Now based on the strong half year figures and the improving market environment, we increased the outlook for '21. We expect now an EBITDA between EUR 1.31 billion to EUR 1.41 billion, and the group result between approximately EUR 590 million to EUR 660 million. The payout ratio will be between 45% and 55% of the adjusted group result, which is between EUR 580 million and EUR 650 million. Now in the following charts, I will explain the influencing factors in more detail. Let me start with an analysis of our generation volumes. At 0.96, the hydro coefficient, which, as you know, is an index quantifying the hydropower generation of run-of-river power plant, was 4 percentage points below the long-term average and 1 percentage point above the level of the first half year 2020. The production from annual storage power plants decreased by 16% due to less natural inflow and less turbining. Own production from hydropower overall decreased by 430 gigawatt hours or close to 3% compared to the first half year 2020. Generation from thermal power plants was down by close to 70% or 459 gigawatt hours, stemming from the decreased use of Mellach for concession management and the fact that the Mellach is strategic plant was almost not in operation during the quarters 1 and 2 of '21. Generation from wind power decreased by 13.8% to 444 gigawatt hours. What's the reason? Well, less favorable wind conditions in all markets were the key factor here. The second important parameter on VERBUND's results are the average achieved contract prices at the end of the first half '21, and obviously, based on our hedging strategy, we achieved an average achieved contract price for hydro generation of EUR 47.3 for '21. For the full year 2020, we achieved EUR 44.6 million. Now please note that we have already hedged approximately 88% of the volume for '21. And on a mark-to-market basis, as of the 16th of July, we calculate with a price of EUR 52.5 per megawatt hour. You know that when I take the entire generation volume per annum, the sensitivity of power price moves are plus/minus EUR 1 equals EUR 25 million on our EBITDA line. On the next page, flexibility. As you know, one of the major trends in the new energy world is increasing volatility in the European grid system coming from the massive development of renewables. We are lucky that we have very flexible assets based on low-cost pump storage power plants and our very modern CCGT in Austria. Now those are best positioned to benefit from this volatility through the sale of flexibility products after result of EUR 58 million in the first half of 2020. We achieved EUR 70 million in the first half year. The increase results mainly from higher contributions from control energy and pumping. Please note that since October of 2018, our Mellach CCGT team has been put into a strategic reserve under which we receive a fixed capacity payment and the payment for the generation. As a consequence, we have changed what used to be an unpredictable volatile cash flow against the secure stable cash flow for a period of 3 years, so it's a quasi regulated component there. Due to the positive development of the flexibility products, we decided to increase our guidance to approximately EUR 120 million for the full year '21. On the next page, our regulated business as the closing for Gas Connect Austria took place at the end of May. We now fully consolidate the company, which is also part of our regulatory segments. I will present you our 2 regulated businesses on the slide, which you have in front of you. Now first, contribution from APG. Our 100% owned subsidiary is responsible for the entire Austrian high-voltage grid with a system length of approximately 7,000 kilometers and their important interconnected capacities into 7 neighboring countries. So it plays a very important strategic role right there in the middle of Europe. As you know, there is a difference between local GAAP and IFRS and the IFRS, in contrast to local GAAP, volatilities in the results contribution cannot be avoided because the so-called regulatory accounts cannot be applied. Now the EBITDA for the first half year from our grid business was EUR 122 million, more or less unchanged from last year. The EBITDA guidance for the electricity grid is approximately EUR 170 million, which is a slight decrease of EUR 10 million compared to the guidance we provided when we published Q1 results. Let me now say a few words about Gas Connect Austria. Gas Connect Austria operates and constructs natural gas, high-pressure pipelines. The company is also responsible for the marketing and provision of transport capacity at border points, so-called entry and exit capacities and the transport capacity required for domestic natural gas demand. Gas Connect Austria operates an approximately 900-kilometer long natural gas high-pressure grid, 5 compressive stations positioned along the pipeline guarantee the relevant pressure. In addition to operations, maintenance and repairs these are also important tasks. The company plays a very important role in the supply of natural gas in Austria and Europe. But the natural gas is transported to the Austrian federal states but also to Germany, France, Slovenia, Croatia and Hungary. With regard to the results contribution of GCA, we only report June '21 on an isolated basis, amounting to approximately EUR 9 million. Please note that we do not provide values from last year as we did not own the asset by the early guidance. For '21, it's approximately EUR 60 million under IFRS. Now this guidance relates to the time period between June and December. Please note that the difference between local GAAP and IFRS is negligible. We therefore only present IFRS values for Gas Connect. On the right bottom side of the slide, you will find information regarding the regulatory system for our 2 regulated businesses. On the next page, you will see the nonrecurring effects. We encounter the very small impairment amounting to EUR 0.5 million stemming from an Austrian wind power plant project in Kuchalm. In addition, the measurement of an obligation to return an interest in the hydropower plant, Jochenstein, amounted to a positive EUR 12.7 million. Then after considering the impact from the nonrecurring effects above on taxes, the nonrecurring effects on the actual group result amounted to EUR 9.3 million, which is the EUR 10 million, which I mentioned at the outset in terms of reported and adjusted results. We also showed a nonrecurring effect in the first half year of 2020 in comparison. Now on the next slide, we show VERBUND's key financial figures for the first half year '21. And I will hand over to Andreas Wollein. Please, Andreas.

Yes, one second. Yes. So going on to Slide 8, you'll see the financial figures. EBITDA increased by around EUR 16 million or 2.5%. I think we have already mentioned the most important influencing factors, the water supply, the sales prices, the [indiscernible] products and the positive contribution from the initial consolidation of Gas Connect Austria. On the basis of the segment reporting, we see that the hydro segment as well as all other segments were almost unchanged compared to last year. The sales segment was around EUR 22 million higher than in Q1 of 2020 due to the positive valuation effects from energy derivatives as well as higher sales to end customers. The grid segment was up by around EUR 9 million due to the personalization of the GCA, as mentioned before. And the EBITDA contribution of the new renewables segment was down by around EUR 11 million due to lower wind volumes in all the markets we are operating. The financial result improved by around EUR 26 million due to the significant reduction in interest expenses. This was mainly due to the decrease in interest payments for bonds, positive FX from repayments in 2020 were higher than negative effects from the bond issuance of EUR 500 million in April 2021 as well as the initial consolidation of debt in relation to Gas Connect Austria. The group result increased by EUR 14 million to EUR 324.5 million as outlined on the slide before. There was also nonrecurring effects in the first half year 2021, leading to a group result on the adjusted basis of EUR 315.2 million. The EBITDA margin increased strongly to a level of 65.4%. The EBIT margin also increased from a level of 25% to almost 46%. In addition to the good operating business, this positive development is primarily attributable to valuation effects in the area of the electricity trading. Finally, I would like to mention the additions to tangible assets, which were based on our CapEx plan, above the previous year's level at EUR 248 million. The additions concerned mainly investments into hydropower plants as well as in investments into the high-voltage grid. When we move on to Slide 9 of the presentation, we move to the development of the operating cash flows. VERBUND's operating cash flow in the first half year decreased compared to the first half year 2020, which showed a decrease of around 27% to EUR 426 million, mainly due to changes in the working capital and additional margining payments for the energy trading business due to the strong increase in wholesale prices. Due to the increase in investments in hydropower plants and the Austrian high-voltage grid, higher dividend payments and the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria, the free cash flow after dividends amounted to minus EUR 473 million, but it should be taken into account here that the dividend of VERBUND AG was paid in the second quarter in 2021. But in the third quarter in financial year 2020 because of the postponement of our Annual General Meeting last year because of the COVID-19 pandemic. Net debt increased to around EUR 2.6 billion. This is mainly due to the issuance of our bond, the Green sustainability-linked bond and the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria. The gearing, therefore, increased as well from 27.4% to around 38% at the end of first half year 2021. Moving on to the next slide for the financial liabilities. The debt maturity profile shows now a total repayment of EUR 30 million for 2021. You can also see 1 peak in 2024 with a repayment of EUR 672 million, mainly consisting of a fixed interest bond in the amount of EUR 500 million and one peak after 2028, which is around EUR 552 million, which is mainly triggered by the new bond issuance in 2021. Yes, the total amount of our financial liabilities is approximately EUR 1.7 billion. The average interest rate on our debt is 1.7% and 73% of our debt is subject to fixed interest rates. The increase in financial liabilities is mainly caused by the issuance of the Green Bond and the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria in first half year 2021. The ratings are stable. So the S&P Rating of VERBUND remained unchanged at single A stable outlook and also the Moody's rating unchanged at A3 stable outlook.

Thank you, Andreas. Now moving towards our CapEx plan. You know that we have increased our CapEx plan from EUR 1.8 billion to approximately EUR 2.3 billion in comparison to our last 3-year plan. The main part of the growth CapEx, approximately EUR 728 million will be invested into the regulated grid business, specifically into our 380-kV Salzburg line in order to increase the capacity to integrate new renewables, and of course, better address the volatility and congestions in the grid system. We're also investing into new renewable projects and selected hydropower plants, the investments related to Austria and Germany. In addition to the growth CapEx, we are also planning to invest around EUR 884 million into maintenance between '21 million and '23, that is approximately EUR 295 million per annum. Please note that the CapEx plan does not include the acquisition of Gas Connect Austria nor the hydropower project, Limberg III, as it is based on the autumn 2020 midterm planning. So that would come in addition to the existing CapEx plan, which I just described. Now we are coming to the end of our presentation and to the outlook. As you know, key parameters for the development of the operational business are prices and higher volumes. At the end of the first half year '21, we have hedged approximately 47% of our hydro generation for '22 at an average price of EUR 56.3 million. On a mark-to-market basis, as of July 16, the average achieved price for '22 would be at a level of EUR 65.6. We have also hedged approximately 13% of our hydro generation for '23. This at an average price of EUR 55.1 million. Again, the mark-to-market valuation shows a level of EUR 64.1. With regard to the year-to-date hydro situation, we have hydro coefficient of 0.96. As we mentioned before, that is 4 percentage points below the long-term average. On the basis of the aforementioned developments, we increased our guidance for the full year '21. I already mentioned the EBITDA of between EUR 1.31 billion to EUR 1.41 billion, and the group result of approximately between EUR 590 million to EUR 660 million. All that under the assumption of average hydro and wind generation for the third and the fourth quarter as well as the chances and the risk situation of the group. For the financial year '21, we will pay out between 45% to 55% of our adjusted results. As always at this point, I would like to highlight the remaining sensitivities. A deviation of plus/minus 1% in the generation from hydropower has an impact of approximately EUR 7 million. And the group result, wind power, relatively small, EUR 0.3 million. And because we have already hedged so much a deviation of plus/minus EUR 1 in the wholesale price will have an impact of EUR 2 million. Now with that, I would like to start our Q&A session.

[Operator Instructions] And the first question we received is from Lueder Schumacher of Societe Generale.

Lueder, here. Three questions from my side. The first one is that I'm a bit surprised that your 2023 hedge volumes have not changed since Q1. I guess that must mean that you see upside to the [ Cal-23 ] contract, which is currently trading at almost EUR 66 per megawatt hour, which would be quite a bullish view. Kind of linked to this is my second question, which is a bit more general. What is your view on few commodities and power prices here? It seems like the squeezing gas prices has moved the whole complex higher, but can -- could this come to quite a swift end once Nord stream 2 is operational? And presumably, the squeeze on gas prices comes to an end? And the third question is also a traditional one for me is me questioning your full year guidance and if it's not still a bit conservative. Because if I take your mark-to-market power price on the 2021 volumes, that's about EUR 8 above the 2020 level. So on your own sensitivities that would add EUR 200 million roughly a bit less to EBITDA. You add to this the EUR 170 million from APG and you're already at the bottom of your guidance range. Now that's before we go to new renewable sales of Gas Connect Austria. So if you could elaborate on that a bit, that would be very useful.

Yes. Sure. Now first of all, on commodities. You're absolutely right. We have seen a dramatic increase since the beginning of the year. In coal, we had approximately 40%, in gas 50%, in CO2 certificate 60% increase. All that obviously feeding into a very high power price. When we look at the forward curves, they are all the coal, the gas forward curves, are all in backwardation. I think there's a good reason for that. And you have already mentioned the squeeze. I think you said on the gas side, you're absolutely right, as far as gas is concerned, we see a number of factors. We had very empty storages in Europe. We had LNG demand in Asia, so less LNG to keep prices honest in Europe. I don't want to comment on the export strategy of Russia, but that certainly has an impact as well. So we almost had a perfect storm as far as gas prices are concerned. I can only give you my personal opinion. As always, when we have those conference calls, I don't have a crystal ball, but I would agree with you that we could well see commodity prices to come down. Is it going to be relatively soon? Or will it take time? I don't know, but I think prices will come down. Now when you translate that into power prices, again, if you're the power price, all the stars are aligned. Because the marginal prices of power stations that are still very important within the German power system, they depend on input factor color gas. Then, of course, you add the very high CO2 price, and what you basically get is an extremely high power price. And the one thing that is probably going to remain relatively stable simply because there is such a tremendous will on the political front is on the CO2 price. However, I still maintain my old theory that I think there is a lot of speculation in the CO2 price, and it is not a pure function of the strategic needs of buyers. We will also have, and a number of people have already commented on that, we are going to have negotiations over the next 2 to 3 years on the new package. And we shall see how the interest of the European Union is going to play out against national interest. So that is something we need to observe very closely. The second point, earlier in terms of power price changes. Now since our last guidance, the power price moved up by approximately EUR 4. The hedging has obviously increased, which is why the hedged prices have gone up as well. When we gave our last guidance, so when we had our last conference call, we were at around 77%. Now we are at approximately 88%, 89% with the hedged level at EUR 47.3 million. Now the interesting thing is that short-term prices, which are not relevant for '21 are super high. I mean, we are talking -- when we take the Austrian prices, we're talking around 90%, which basically means that if we were able to price in the last remaining piece, which we haven't hedged yet to short-term prices, that will obviously move up our price for the full year '21 to around 52%, maybe slightly more. You asked about '23 and you were surprised about the relatively small increase since our last conference call. I mean we are -- yes, you are right. It hasn't moved up dramatically because we -- as I said, we don't really change our hedging policy short term as a result of momentum because over a long-term period, we have realized that keeping our hedging policy makes a lot of sense. If we -- just to give you an example, we had a very strong move in power prices, but there was a strong move towards EUR 50 and EUR 60. If we had accelerated at the time, I mean, strongly accelerated at the time, we would not have been able to take advantage of the very high power prices now. So it's a classic case of in hindsight, the optimization always works. But looking forward, we are just faced with huge volatility in power prices. So to sum up in terms of what our hedging levels are per now. We are -- for '21, as I mentioned, we're 88%, 89% hedged. For '22, we are slightly above 50% hedged. And for '23, we are 14% hedged. And we shall see where prices develop given the discussion, which was there.

Okay. If I can just follow up on the guidance. If we just use the sensitivities you gave and then this means that for hydro, the EBITDA should increase by EUR 200 million. You add to this, the APG and you already had almost EUR 1.3 billion, that's before all the other divisions. Is there something we should be aware of why -- it doesn't seem to be adding up with your current guidance range of EUR 1.31 billion to EUR 1.41 billion? Or rather -- it seems rather conservative?

Yes. Well, we had -- when you look at the full year, we obviously have -- when we take the hydro coefficient, which we have year to date, and if we take one for the remaining of the year, we will be below the -- everything we know today, we will be below the hydro coefficient of 1. So there we lose. On the volumes with the grid, we are lower because of control energy there is a possibility that the cost for control energy will continue to go up. But so far, we have reduced the grid by EUR 10 million. Now there is some -- there is a little bit of potential that it could be slightly more than the EUR 10 million. Then on the remaining power prices, we are not sure. At the moment, we are at a very, very high level. But as I mentioned, there is a lot of volatility. So it could well be that the remaining 10% will not be hedged at EUR 90 or EUR 85, which I have mentioned, but that we see short term potentially slightly lower prices -- on the flexibility products we're slightly higher, but that is just the guidance. You know that there is always volatility on the flexibility products, particularly congestion management. So as a result of that, we feel pretty comfortable with the guidance. The one thing I would like to mention at this point, which is something I said last -- at the last conference call, given the very large amount of projects which we currently have in terms of hydrogen, in terms of, call it, digitalization and many other aspects where we're doing pilot projects within research, where we need other operating expenses and personnel for innovation and being prepared for all the aspects of the energy transformation, our cost basis has gone up, our OpEx has gone up. I mentioned EUR 40 million to EUR 50 million in the last conference call. Well, that is a factor as well when you compare it to previous years.

The next question received is Teresa Schinwald from Raiffeisen International.

Yes. I have 3 or 4 questions, if I may. So the first one is a quick one. Maybe I've missed it, but could you give us the higher level year-to-date as of the end of July? The second one is on the headline figures for your CapEx plans. I'm aware that the one in the presentation is from last autumn, but now with Gas Connect Austria, Mellach too and the CG cooperation, some idea about 2022 and 2023 CapEx would be nice. The third one is, the CO of [indiscernible] recently mentioned that in the new Renewables Expansion Act, the support for green hydrogen was kind of -- could have been improved, especially when it comes to being -- it's being fed into the gas grids. Could you tell us a bit more about that? And the last one is so also more general one on power prices and operations. So the base peak spreads have declined for the summer months, increased, of course, for the winter months and other utilities, like first of all, already served in the midterm. They're going to run their [ Limberg ] plants rather than in winter then through the whole year. What's your view on that, please?

Yes. Okay. On the year-to-date, hydro it's 0.96. On the CapEx, the key components, which will be added is Limberg III. The cost of Limberg III is approximately EUR 480 million. But obviously, it will be distributed over over a number of years. So let's just say to keep it simple, EUR 100 million per annum, which would be added to the existing plan. And on Gas Connect Austria, the CapEx depends, and this is related to the first question, which you have had. And that is a very important one, and that is a European one, and Austria plays a role in that. Green hydrogen is one of the favorite topics of European politicians. It is one of the favorite topics of the EU commission. And it is a wonderful topic because it's almost like a panacea for all the difficult questions you don't want to answer. So how about base load? How is the energy transformation going to work when you take out coal and when you take out gas? How you're going to make the steel industry, the fertilizer industry, the chemical industry greener? And the answer is hydrogen. It's always hydrogen. And obviously, the problem is in the detail. And what we need in Europe, we need a framework. We need a regulation, and we need an incentive because a decentralized hydrogen system will not work. We need to transport. And this is where Gas Connect Austria will play a very, very important role within Europe because we are right there. We're right in the middle. And we have the pipelines coming up through Italy from Northern Africa. Everybody assumes that Northern Africa will be a production hub for hydrogen. And then it will be produced down there and connected to Italy. From Italy, it will go into Austria. Austria was sort of like then the core, and then it will be distributed from Baumgarten into the various parts of Europe. But then people are also talking about Ukraine and they're saying, well, wait a second, we can't just relay on Northern Africa. The Ukraine is perfect for wind power, potentially for solar as well. We produce hydrogen in the Ukraine, and there we have very good gas pipelines, which could be turned into hydrogen pipelines to send hydrogen into Europe. Now the Ukraine pipeline ends up in our network as well, in Gas Connect Austria. And then again, it would be distributed further from Gas Connect Austria into the rest of Europe. In order for that to take place, we need and we actually want to invest like all the other transport operators in Europe into refitting our compressor stations possibly even next door existing gas lines, build new hydrogen mines or refit existing gas lines into hydrogen. That is CapEx. And that CapEx needs to be properly incentivized through regulation, i.e., the basic assumption would be that you get a regulated return plus a premium because hydrogen is obviously a top priority. But that is something that needs to be discussed on the European level, and that's very, very important that instead of just talking about how great hydrogen is, sit down and do something. Yes, come up with the European regulation so that we are then together with all the other gas transport operators able to properly invest into the grid. In terms of power prices, well, there is a incredibly difficult -- the reason why it is so difficult is because we have a lot of different factors, which have moved dramatically and when you assume a regression to the mean and when you assume that coal is going to normalize, gas is going to normalize and when possibly even CO2 goes down a bit, you obviously have completely different power prices. Because the one thing we should never forget, we all talk about the buildup of renewables, but the buildup of renewables is slower, particularly in Austria and Germany, as most people would expect and are not even taking into consideration the huge amount of power, which you need for the hydrogen production. I'm only talking about meeting demand through new renewables and nobody wants to talk about the bridge technology, which is gas because gas obviously is CO2 emitting. And people don't talk about the bridge technology, and that is one of the key issues. However, it will be important and the more gas you have in the system, the less coal you have in the system, the price will be determined by gas if the gas prices come down, then, of course, you will have lower power prices. But all that before we get there, there will be a huge amount of volatility in my view.

Yes. So again to the base peak spread, sorry to bring it up again. So does -- do you see already an impact, especially when it comes to pump storage, which is the good benefit from higher volatility base peak spread, but on the other hand, the spread seems to increase more seasonally. So even placing [ power ] more seasonal products?

Yes. Prediction of the spread between our base and peak is a complex science. When you look back and when you look at predictions 5, 10, 15 years ago, almost everybody has been wrong. That is a very difficult prognosis because there are even more parameters, which need to be considered. But when you assume a very strong build-out of renewables, it could well be than in combination with storage and in combination with bridge technology that during the summertime when you have a lot of renewables in the market the spread should be lower. And during the winter time, it should be higher.

[Operator Instructions] And the next question received is from Wanda Serwinowska of Jefferies (sic) [ Crédit Suisse ].

Wanda Serwinowska from Crédit Suisse. Just one really quick question for me on the regulatory surplus at the end of this year, what is your expectation? And hasn't been any update on the repayment of the surplus?

Wanda, sorry. I had a very bad line of acoustics. Would you be so kind as to repeat the question?

Yes, sure. The question is on the regulatory surplus. What is your expectation for the end of this year? What would be the amount sitting in the regulatory surplus? And what should we expect in terms of the repayment of the surplus?

Yes. Well my expectation for the end of the year in the regulatory account would be between EUR 270 million and EUR 275 million. That would be quite a reduction from the year-end level, which was at EUR 315 million. And we would like to decrease the regulatory account over the next few years by anything between EUR 30 million and EUR 40 million. Obviously, that's something we would like to do. It always depends on the regulator. At the end of the day, he has the last word, but that is our plan.

And we received a follow-up of Lueder Schumacher of Societe Generale.

Yes. Just a very quick follow-up. It's on Gas Connect Austria. So on Slide 6, are you saying that you expect EUR 60 million for the second half or your full year contribution from PCA should be EUR 69 million?

No. The the number for the entire period since closing would be somewhere between EUR 55 million and EUR 60 million on the EBITDA. And on the results, it would be around EUR 10 million. And going forward from '22 onwards, an assumption for you and your models would be approximately EUR 100 million on the EBITDA line and approximately EUR 20 million on the results line. Obviously, when anything changes, we will update you on a regular basis.

Okay. So the Slide 6, the guidance for 6 to 12 -- okay. That's the entire period, excellent.

Yes. Exactly.

As we received no further questions, I hand back to Mr. Kollmann for closing remarks.

Well, thank you very much. As always, a very interesting discussion. We are in the middle of very interesting times. We have alluded on commodity prices that have moved up dramatically. So I think we will have a very interesting next 2 quarters. And in the meantime, I wish you all a great summer, great summer holidays and I very much look forward to seeing or talking to you in the not-too-distant future. All the best. Thank you.

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for your attendance. This call has been concluded. You may disconnect.