Realty Income Corporation (O) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 2, 2026
What were the key takeaways from Realty Income Corporation's November 2, 2026 earnings call?
In the third quarter of 2026, Realty Income Corporation reported an AFFO per share of $1.12, reflecting a year-over-year growth of 3.7%. The company raised its 2026 AFFO per share guidance to a range of $4.45 to $4.46 while maintaining a $10 billion investment volume target. The results were bolstered by a record sourcing of approximately $59 billion in potential investments, with a focus on Europe and credit investments, as management adapts to a higher interest rate environment.
What topics did Realty Income Corporation cover?
- AFFO Guidance Increase: Realty Income raised its 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.45 to $4.46, indicating confidence in its operational performance. CEO Sumit Roy stated, "Based on our performance and outlook, we are raising our 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.45 to $4.46."
- Record Investment Sourcing: The company sourced a record $59 billion in potential investments during the quarter, surpassing prior full-year records. This reflects a strong selectivity rate of 4.4% and demonstrates the company's ability to capitalize on market opportunities.
- Increased Focus on Europe: Realty Income invested approximately $940 million in Europe during the quarter, representing 42% of pro rata investment volume at a cash yield of 7.1%. Management highlighted that Europe offers particularly attractive relative value, stating, "Higher long-term interest rates have shifted the most attractive investment economics towards Europe."
- Credit Investments Strategy: The company allocated approximately $250 million to credit investments, representing over 10% of total volume. This strategy is seen as a way to achieve superior risk-adjusted returns in a higher rate environment, with Roy noting, "Credit investments represent a compelling way to pivot capital toward superior risk-adjusted returns."
- Disposition Activity: Realty Income completed approximately $527 million in dispositions during the quarter, indicating a proactive capital recycling strategy. Management expects this activity to remain elevated in the fourth quarter, which supports their investment strategy.
What were Realty Income Corporation's November 2, 2026 results?
- AFFO per Share: $1.12 (+3.7% YoY)
- 2026 AFFO Guidance: $4.45 to $4.46
- Investment in Europe: $940 million (42% of pro rata investment volume)
- Credit Investments: $250 million (over 10% of total volume)
- Disposition Activity: $527 million
- Occupancy Guidance: above 98.5%
Realty Income's strong quarterly performance and strategic focus on diversified investments position it well for future growth. The raised guidance and proactive capital management indicate a robust outlook, but investors should monitor the evolving interest rate environment and its impact on investment spreads and asset valuations.
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Alexander Waters
executiveWe appreciate everyone being with us for Realty Income's conference call covering third quarter 2026 results. Present on today's call are Sumit Roy, our President and Chief Executive Officer; Jonathan Pong, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer; Neil Abraham, Chief Strategy Officer and President of Realty Income International; Greg White, Chief Operating Officer; and Mark Hagan, Chief Investment Officer. On this call, we'll be making some statements that federal securities law may treat as forward-looking. Actual results in the future for the company could differ materially from what any forward-looking statements discuss. The factors that might lead to those differences will be described in more detail in our Form 10-Q filed with the SEC. During the Q&A portion, we'll keep to a limit of 1 question and 1 follow-up so that everyone gets a chance to participate. With that, I'd like to hand the call over to our CEO, Sumit Roy.
Sumit Roy
executiveThanks, Alex, and hello everyone. In the third quarter you can see what Realty Income's shift into a more diversified allocator of capital is worth; the levers open to us now reach further across both investing and capital formation, widening both the places we put money to work and the ways we finance it. Not many firms in this sector can move capital across regions, asset classes, investment structures and funding sources the way we can in a market that keeps shifting; the payoff showed up once more in our Q3 numbers, with AFFO per share of $1.12, up 3.7% from a year earlier, while our operating portfolio stayed strong. Given how we performed and what we see ahead, we're lifting 2026 AFFO per share guidance to $4.45 to $4.46 and holding to a $10 billion target for investment volume. In the quarter we put roughly $2.6 billion to work, including $2.2 billion at our pro rata share at a cash yield of 6.8%. For property acquisitions, weighted average annual contractual rent bumps came to 1.9%. Importantly, those deals delivered a realized leverage-neutral spread of about 170 basis points over our short-term weighted average cost of capital, and 53% of investment activity involved investment-grade clients. We sourced a record of roughly $59 billion in potential investments in the quarter, taking year-to-date sourcing past $120 billion, which already beats our previous full-year record. That activity reflected a 4.4% selectivity rate, with 92% of our investment activity relationship-driven. Jonathan will walk through the financing behind these investments. Our results show what having multiple investment and capital levers is worth as relative economics move. With long-term rates higher, the most attractive investment economics have tilted toward Europe, credit investments and private capital managed co-investments. Those channels let us widen investment spreads and open more ways to deploy capital when rate volatility squeezes balance sheet acquisition economics. In that setting, Europe stands out for especially attractive relative value. In the third quarter we invested about $940 million in Europe, which was 42% of pro rata investment volume at an initial weighted average cash yield of 7.1%. Over 85% of our European real estate investment volume was industrial, at an initial cash yield of 6.9%. Among our biggest investments in the quarter was a $180 million e-commerce logistics facility in Western Poland, leased to a large investment grade international retailer at a 6.8% yield. The recently built purpose-built facility sits in an established logistics hub and supports product distribution across Central and Western Europe. It typifies the industrial opportunities we're chasing in Europe, modern purpose-built assets in established logistics markets that serve broad regional demand. While price discovery keeps shifting given the higher rate environment, we remain constructive on Continental Europe for the rest of the year, with opportunities emerging through existing relationships and across multiple markets. Our advantage isn't just geographic reach. What really underpins this is the local teams, the relationships, and the playbook we've developed to assess Europe one market at a time and move when the economics meet our standards. Beyond widening where our capital comes from, we've also broadened how we can invest throughout the capital structure. In Q3, we put roughly $250 million into credit investments, which was more than 10% of total volume across retail, industrial, and data centers. Credit investments are an appealing way to shift capital toward better risk-adjusted returns in response to a higher rate environment. Our approach to credit investing brings the same discipline and real estate expertise that support our equity investments. With an emphasis on high-quality real estate collateral, strong counterparties, and attractive positioning in the capital stack, these investments sit in industries and assets already common across our real estate portfolio and with partners who lead in their respective industries. Importantly, the higher yields that credit offers can also act as a natural hedge against the higher financing costs we face in a higher rate environment, which further strengthens the reliability of the cash flows our business generates; we evaluate these investments through a real estate lens. Credit can deepen how well we understand operators and the underlying real estate in both the U.S. and Europe, while opening a potential path to future ownership and strengthening our ties with key market participants. Credit doesn't replace traditional real estate. It's a complement and one more level we can pull when risk-adjusted returns are more compelling, as they are today. Industrial combines industry tailwinds with embedded growth. It was our biggest area of investment this quarter, with about $1.15 billion invested at an initial weighted average cash yield of 6.5%, and weighted average contractual rent increases of 2.5% domestically, while international leases are largely tied to inflation and market rent growth. Across e-commerce, manufacturing, digital infrastructure, adjacent uses, and a growing range of industrial real estate client use cases, we're finding opportunities backed by durable demand. Those fundamentals also show up in rising build-to-suit activity, repeat demand from existing customers, and significant contractual rent growth. Dallas industrial fundamentals are still very strong, supported by substantial net absorption that keeps outpacing new supply and pushing vacancy lower. In the third quarter, we acquired a large logistics park next to DFW Airport. The acquired prop portfolio has in-place rents roughly 45% below market, which creates meaningful mark-to-market growth potential as leases start to roll in a few years. Data centers also remain part of our long-term investment strategy, but we're staying selective. We're focused on top-tier supply-constrained markets, experienced operators, established clients with long duration leases and strong annual lease escalators, and real estate where we have conviction in the long-term residual value. Lastly, an increasingly important part of how we allocate capital is using our current portfolio as a source of funding. In Q3, we finished roughly $527 million in dispositions, which included $395 million of occupied sales at a 7.1% net cap rate. We anticipate that disposition activity will stay elevated in Q4. So far this year, proceeds from dispositions have come to about $875 million, which already tops our full-year 2025 disposition volume, following a capital recycling program that is more proactive. Importantly, our approach to dispositions isn't solely about lowering portfolio risk; we also sell assets that are performing well when private market value and reinvestment returns produce a better result. Our aim is to create nondilutive capital that we can redeploy toward investments that offer superior risk-adjusted returns. Zooming out, we've widened both sides of capital allocation — where we can put money to work and how we fund those investments; that adaptability is important because the best use of capital will shift over time. We remain focused on leveraging the breadth of the business to stay selective, chase the best risk-adjusted returns, and act with conviction as market conditions change. With that, I'll hand the call to Jonathan.
Jonathan Pong
executiveThanks, Sumit, and good afternoon, everyone. Where financing is concerned, our strategic priority is still to widen and expand the capital sources we can access at efficient prices; when the quarter ended, we had about $5.4 billion in available liquidity, with net debt to annualized pro forma adjusted EBITDA at 5.4x, or 5.2x if you include $1.1 billion of unsettled ATM equity we raised at a weighted average gross price of $60.61 per share. A fixed rate applies to more than 94% of our pro rata debt, and we designate our variable rate capacity mainly for European commercial paper yielding under 3%. How our investment yields compare with funding costs demonstrates the worth of that flexibility. To build on what Sumit said, during the quarter we finished roughly $2.2 billion in pro rata investment activity, with an initial weighted average cash yield of about 6.8%, measured against the financing activity we actually carried out. Over that period, we funded those investments at a blended first-year cost of capital of approximately 5%. That gave us a leverage-neutral investment spread of around 170 basis points. These economics come from a deliberate push to broaden how we finance the business, so that our investment choices don't depend on how attractive any one capital source happens to be. When relative costs and market conditions change, the ability to switch among a range of alternatives allows us to protect investment spreads while maintaining our leverage discipline. During the quarter, we applied that strategy by accessing both the euro-denominated debt market and the convertible market. In July, we issued EUR 600 million in senior unsecured notes with an effective annual yield of roughly 3.7%, taking advantage of the euro market's depth and lower yield. Then in August, we came back to the convertible market for the second time this year, issuing $1 billion of 3.75% convertible senior notes and bringing in about $950 million in net proceeds after purchasing < >, which locked in an effective conversion price of $83.55 per share — 35% above the August reference price and roughly 45% above today's closing price. Equity from the public markets is still a relatively small piece of how we fund the business, and roughly $470 million was settled via our ATM program in the quarter. Obviously, having a wide range of capital options means we rely less on the ATM equity market — in particular, public equity accounted for just 19% of pro rata investment volume so far this year, versus a three-year annual average of 47%. A key element of that shift is our growing ability to tap private capital: the KKR joint venture we closed recently takes our retirement and insurance private capital strategy into a new partner relationship and a new geography. Through this partnership, KKR put in EUR 528 million to acquire a 49% equity stake in a portfolio spanning 54 retail and industrial properties in 4 European nations, at an initial cap rate of 5.9%, which includes recurring asset management fees. As the joint venture is structured, Realty Income holds the right to call KKR's interest in years 10 through 17 of the JV, aiming for a 6.4% IRR — an especially attractive long-term cost of equity, particularly alongside a partner who values the long duration and stable cash flow characteristics of a diversified net lease portfolio. The strategic importance goes past the capital this transaction raised: by combining long-term institutional equity with our sourcing, underwriting and asset management expertise, we can leverage our leading net lease operating platform, generally recurring capital light asset management fees, widen our buy box of investment opportunities and limit share dilution via fewer public equity issuances. Beyond these external sources, a bigger portion of investment activity is being funded with capital generated inside the business, through adjusted free cash flow as well as portfolio dispositions. During the first 9 months of the year, adjusted free cash flow and disposition proceeds came to over $700 million and $875 million, respectively. Taken together, those funding sources allow us to cover a meaningful portion of our remaining 2026 funding needs, while keeping plenty of liquidity and conservative leverage that sustains our A-rated balance sheet. Moving on to guidance: at the midpoint, we're increasing 2026 AFFO per share guidance by $0.01, and we reaffirm the $10 billion investment volume target; we're also raising occupancy guidance to above 98.5%, reducing nonreimbursable expense leakage guidance at the midpoint by 10 basis points to a range of 1.3% to 1.5%, and bringing our credit loss expectation down from 40 basis points to roughly 30 basis points. Those changes reflect strong asset management execution and tenant credit that came in better than expected. We continue to see a healthy outlook on both volume and yield for investment activity in the fourth quarter, which is entirely prefunded on an equity basis and carries meaningfully accretive investment spreads. Turning to 2027 and the reason this expanded funding strategy matters: it's not simply that additional capital sources let us adjust financing as relative economics change; we also see an opportunity to build on the programmatic and strategic relationships we already have and to develop new ones with well-respected institutional investors, steering meaningful capital toward netting these strategies outside of the public market. We look forward to sharing our progress as our private capital platform keeps scaling. With that, I'll hand the call back to Sumit.
Sumit Roy
executiveThanks, Jonathan. Realty Income has changed a great deal over time, yet what we're aiming for hasn't shifted: putting capital to work with discipline in a way that backs lasting growth on a per-share basis and dependable income for the people who own our stock. Right now, we've got a wider range of avenues for investing, and a wider range of ways to finance those investments, than we've ever had before. Because that opportunity set has grown, we can steer capital toward the best returns after adjusting for risk, while tapping the most cost-effective capital sources open to us. As markets keep changing, we think these strengths put us in a strong spot to produce sustainable per-share growth and still hold to the discipline that Realty Income has been known for over the years. Having said that, I'd like to turn things over now for your questions. Operator?
Michael Goldsmith
analystWe've heard a few times now about that 170 basis point spread on the capital you raised this quarter. I guess it looks like it was done with attractive euro and convertible. If you look at the current investment pipeline and where funding markets are today, is that 170 basis point spread you mentioned sustainable? Or how should we be thinking about it going forward?
Sumit Roy
executiveGreat question, Michael. As you know, we've just reaffirmed our $10 billion investment. You can do the math yourself. What's good for us is that we have effectively prefunded that whole investment; so — and we've brought in the capital at very attractive pricing, which we've shared with you in terms of how much equity we have outstanding on our forward, which is $1.1 billion, raised north of $60 per share, plus the capital recycling as well as the free cash flow that we're going to lean on to help fund the remaining investments we have; so obviously, we have very good visibility into the yields these investments are going to generate, which is more akin to the first half of 2026; and the fact that we've also got very good visibility into how we plan on permanently financing that investment gives us the conviction that Jonathan shared with you regarding the spreads we're going to be able to achieve.
Michael Goldsmith
analystAnd then I just want to follow up. Last quarter you mentioned capital recycling, and this quarter we saw some dispositions. I believe those went at a 71 net cap rate. So could you speak to how you can — how you intend to redeploy that capital, given that this cap rate is somewhat elevated relative to some of the cap rates you're using for acquisitions? I'm just trying to better understand the sources and uses behind this capital recycling.
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. So capital recycling — and in the prepared remarks, I think we attempted to explain what exactly we're trying to recycle. Obviously, part of it is purely risk management. Part of it is ensuring that when we have an outsized exposure to a particular client, we try to take advantage of that. But a lot of it is also driven by this mismatch in terms of where we're trading, what we're able to buy, and I want to dive into that shortly. And what we're able to achieve in the private markets, given certain phenomena we're seeing around accelerated depreciation, the 1031 market, end of the year — all of those are creating a very favorable backdrop in terms of what we can potentially recycle this capital at. And so for us, this is going to become part and parcel of how we fund our investments going forward. And I've already hinted at the fact that the yields obviously were largely driven by the type of asset types we were investing in during the third quarter. And what one can't lose sight of is the fact that the inherent growth rate these leases have is 1.9%, almost 2%, which is 100 basis points north of what you'd find in our traditional U.S.-centric retail business. And so if we were to share with you what the straight-line cap rates are, these would be north of 200 basis points off of where the day 1 cash cap rate we've just shared with you sits. And so you can't lose sight of that element. And this is something we're leaning into aggressively. We've grown our investable avenues, with 1 eye towards where we can find more inherent growth, organic growth in our leases, and the fact that we're leaning into data centers and industrial and retail in Europe — those tend to have well north of what our traditional U.S.-centric retail business tends to have, which is circa 1%; so this, I think, longer term, is going to start to manifest itself in a much higher internal growth structure over the entire portfolio, thus lessening the need for internal — sorry, investments, external growth, driving the vast majority of our earnings per share growth. And that is the journey we are on.
Brad Heffern
analystA number of your competitors have mentioned that higher yields are flowing through into higher cap rates more quickly than is usual when rates are climbing. I'm wondering whether you're observing the same thing. And could you also shed some light on how far cap rates have gone up to this point?
Sumit Roy
executiveThanks for that, Brad — excellent question. With your permission, I'll cite a few data points, and my hope is that this will help put this question in context regarding the speed at which cap rates adjust, what we're currently hearing in cap rate conversations, and so forth. On August 5, the 10-year treasury stood at 4.63%. Then, exactly 30 days afterward — 31 days afterward, on October 5 — the treasury reached its peak of 5.35%. As of today, it has fallen back to 4.9%. And as you're aware, our business — and this applies not only to net lease but to real estate broadly — has a tendency to track what happens in the treasury market when it comes to cap rates. Historically, we've stated that once there's conviction about where the ten-year will ultimately settle, market participants largely begin to reprice. You observe a modest lag — roughly 12 months, give or take — before cap rates start reflecting the cost of capital. In my view, that 12-month period has gotten shorter today. Net lease assets now attract far more buyers. Many of them are private purchasers of net lease assets. However, they're also affected by developments in the debt capital markets to a much greater degree than public buyers are. Still, they constitute a reasonably large group that is actively buying and selling net lease assets. So when the ten-year swings around as much as it currently is — and I've just given you some figures — it's quite hard to claim, over the long term, that cap rates have now risen 30 basis points, 50 basis points. What complicates giving a general answer to that question is the set of options we've built; we're no longer confined to the U.S. market; and yes, the cap rate movement phenomenon I can describe for the U.S. is mostly tied to the 10-year treasury. But that isn't precisely what drives the European or U.K. markets. Consequently, our ability to operate across several markets and several asset types genuinely lets us chase the strongest risk-adjusted returns. If you're asking specifically about the U.S., then yes — the conversations we had just a week or 2 weeks ago involved cap rate discussions at a far higher level than what showed up in the third quarter. It's also true that the more institutional the potential seller is and the bigger the transactions we're looking at, the simpler it becomes for us to pursue those deals, since they grasp this mark-to-market cost of capital idea much more readily than, say, a one-off seller in the market who is attached to the assets being sold and more emotionally invested in them. So I apologize for the lengthy, drawn-out response, but the complexity of our investment thesis justifies a longer answer.
Brad Heffern
analystAll right. And you've sort of set me up for my next question too. You mentioned that Europe looks especially appealing from a relative value standpoint. Could you walk us through the reason for that? I mean, clearly the debt rates are lower over there, but yields have gone up there too.
Sumit Roy
executiveYeah. Well, when cap rates are comparable to what we see here, we're able to finance our debt with 3.7% paper, long-duration debt. The spreads you can earn are clearly far more attractive. And these are assets we definitely want to grow our focus on, like industrial; and when we — I gave you an example of a kind of industrial asset we went after in Poland with growth rates well above 2%; and with these long-duration leases in locations we're very bullish on in terms of industrial markets, and seeing those dynamics show up in much wider spreads, that's the reason we find European markets quite compelling.
Omotayo Okusanya
analystMy question concerns the volume of investment. You've restated the $10 billion guidance; however, based on much of what's been said today, it rather feels as though there are some puts and takes versus where things likely stood at the start of the year. Could you help us think through what that mix looks like going forward — it sounds like Europe now accounts for more than it did perhaps at the start of the year. Industrial now accounts for more than it did at the start of the year. I'm just curious how that mix has shifted and how investment spreads may have shifted too, relative to how you were thinking at the beginning of the year versus now?
Sumit Roy
executiveTayo, that's a lot of questions in one, but to answer you, I wouldn't say the mix has changed. In fact, looking at what we delivered in the third quarter and the second quarter, it's roughly 50 to 50 — a bit less international, a bit more here in the U.S., but you can think of it as 50 to 50 in terms of investment volume from a geographic standpoint. As we entered the year, we spoke about wanting a larger allocation to data centers; we spoke about growing our allocation to industrial. And by and large those have unfolded as we had sort of projected at the start of the year. Naturally, we can't give you exact percentages for how that will look. But we did share our intent to concentrate on these areas, since we identified the demand drivers for both parts of the business. And we believe — our house view is — that on a risk-adjusted basis, these are generating the best spreads day 1 as well as the overall return profile across a full investment cycle. And by and large that has proven to be the case. What we've done since then is respond to what we're observing in today's environment. Look, take something like this: did we expect the tenure to reach 5.35% at the start of the year? Categorically no. But once again, I'll point to the fact that while that created a headwind for equity investments in U.S. real estate, it actually opened up opportunities through our relationships, et cetera, on the credit side of the equation, where we gained exposure to the same real estate — not by purchasing it at aggressive cap rates, but by making credit investments against that real estate as collateral, which let us sort of capitalize on this higher and more volatile cost of debt environment. So yes, those things evolve and we respond to market conditions. Yet I'd say our real differentiator is the capacity to mirror overall market conditions and capitalize on them in real time. So this year — pardon me, this quarter — our credit investment came to roughly $250-ish million, though at a very high yield. That largely reflects certain opportunities we spotted and seized; and so I believe you'll keep seeing us operate with real flexibility and lean into these levers we've built in order to capture the best opportunities. And it's also the case — just to restate this point — that our fourth-quarter pipeline is entirely prefunded. Consequently, public-market volatility won't affect our ability to achieve the inherent spread we underwrote to; and I think remarks have been offered suggesting it is quite healthy.
Jana Galan
analystCongratulations on a solid third quarter. Jonathan, with the updated 2026 guidance, you're implying perhaps a $0.01 to $0.02 AFFO deceleration in 4Q. I was wondering whether there are any one-timers worth flagging? Or is it simply a matter of capital markets timing?
Jonathan Pong
executiveJana, I believe much of it comes down to when capital gets deployed, along with, as you say, some flow-through from capital markets activity. But there's nothing to read into. In fact, looking at the business fundamentals, the watch list is stable, and I talked about how the credit loss component is declining from 40 to 30 basis points. You're seeing consistent investment flow, and much depends on when those transactions actually close during the quarter. There were a few one-timers here and there. But largely, it's a clean flow-through into the fourth quarter.
Jana Galan
analystAnd then as we look ahead to next year, are there any significant one-time items from this year worth flagging that won't happen again?
Jonathan Pong
executiveNo. For the most part, I'd say you can count on a pretty steady level of transactions that benefited us in 2026. The obvious big item to mention is the lease termination income. But for 2 years running now, we've been sitting at roughly a $45 million to $50 million run rate. And given how proactive the team has been and the more natural churn in the portfolio, we'd expect that run rate to continue holding in 2027.
Bennett Rose
analystI'd like to dig a bit deeper into those credit investments you mentioned — the ones with better yields and 10% of volume. Do you have any kind of limits in mind, like a maximum as a share of volume or a dollar figure? And I'm curious: do you originate these loans yourselves directly with the borrowers, or do they come from some other source?
Sumit Roy
executiveYes. Good question, Smedes. What I'd like you to do is — we've already touched a bit on the thinking behind our credit investments. There are, I believe, several reasons why credit investments make a great deal of sense at certain moments in the economy. When we're up against headwinds on the refinancing side given this higher interest rate environment, being able to make investments that can somewhat soften that headwind by capitalizing on opportunities we can create directly through existing relationships — that is a big plus. And in most cases we're structuring these transactions with more collateral, lower LTV, and better rates than we could achieve on the equity side of the equation. What that lets us do is, obviously, keep strengthening our ties with these existing potential clients, and it lets us understand — particularly if it's an asset we don't know well in a given geography — it lets us understand how those assets perform. It lets us deepen the relationship with these clients; and clearly, it hedges some of the potential headwinds one faces in an elevated interest rate environment on the financing side of our business. So for reasons like those, I think it makes a lot of sense for us to make these kinds of investments at certain moments. I would say that — and we've been very clear on this point — one shouldn't say, "Oh, credit investments now replace what we're doing on the equity side." The vast majority of what we're doing, above 90%, is still our traditional business. You asked what the allocation is going to look like. We're going to stay very much focused on some of the points I've made. Is this a natural hedge to some of the finance — the refinancing headwinds, and it isn't unique to us. It's something the entire sector will experience in this elevated tenure treasury environment. And how much makes sense for a balance sheet with $85 billion, $90 billion of assets — that's what's going to govern what the appropriate amount of credit investments we should make is; we are acutely aware of the reinvestment risk, et cetera. And so there are inherent breakers, if you will, that will dictate what this allocation needs to be. And I can tell you, we're nowhere near reaching those allocation figures.
Bennett Rose
analystIs that something you can share — maybe it isn't disclosed — but roughly, how long is that loan book, so to speak, and what reinvestment risk could that create?
Sumit Roy
executiveIn fact, each quarter we disclose the embedded tenor; and our aim, once more, since these deals are so tailored, is that we can secure a considerably longer tenor on certain of the more structured transactions. As of today, though, the credit investment we completed in the third quarter came in at approximately 3.4 years.
Ronald Kamdem
analystI'd like to return to the data center opportunity — with rates, regulation, all the things we've been hearing about, has anything shifted in that opportunity or in deal flow?
Sumit Roy
executiveThat's a great question, Ron. I'll ask Mark to address the data center business.
Mark Hagan
executiveSure, thanks, Ron. Clearly, a great deal is happening across the data center industry, and all of us have witnessed the growth in power limitations as well as rising community worries regarding electricity expenses and water consumption, AI, and so forth. We are therefore keenly conscious of this and tracking it carefully. That said, we remain quite positive on this asset class and how well it fits our strategy. Again, what I believe matters greatly — and you have likely heard us mention this previously — is that we continue to be positive about putting capital into data centers. Even so, we will keep being extremely, extremely choosy and highly disciplined about adhering to the core strategy we set out earlier: remaining within top-tier data center markets, working alongside developers who have — who have spent a long time doing this and our expertise at securing power and resolving complications and so forth. Ensuring our tenants within the data centers, our clients, fit the strong IG hyperscale-type profile, and securing lease structures, duration, rent bumps and ideally even triple net lease provisions that genuinely safeguard us. Thus, clearly mindful of and watching closely all developments concerning the industry, yet still positive, though we will continue to be extremely selective.
Haendel St. Juste
analystSumit, could you give us a little more detail on that new European JV? Perhaps some color on the target size once fully deployed, leverage included, the return thresholds, and the timeline for deployment? And how will you decide what goes into that JV as opposed to staying on balance sheet for Europe?
Jonathan Pong
executiveAnd Haendel, this is Jonathan — you mean the KKR JV, I presume, yes?
Haendel St. Juste
analystYes, yes.
Jonathan Pong
executiveSo to start with, this JV has no leverage, and we'd anticipate that any tranches down the road would stay unlevered as well. Look, this is quite comparable to the Apollo JV we completed in the U.S.; and what feeds into it, clearly, is seeded from our portfolio, very stable, with fairly solid duration and a very fragmented portfolio. All of what you'd think insurance capital would be wanting — the net lease business model is uniquely positioned to work for this. Going forward, this is simply one part of the toolkit. The insurance JV won't be the sole form of equity that we issue, but it is a very meaningful permanent equity, and that's part of what let us deliver such attractive investment spreads on a leverage-neutral basis in the third quarter, since the IRR we effectively locked in came to 6.4%. And much of that rests on just being euro-denominated and lower base rates. Going forward, I'd say expect more of the same. There's a different buy box that goes into the insurance JVs, and that does tend to be more of your lower initial yield, but very long duration, very diversifiable type of properties. And so I'd expect some of the more stable, perhaps higher credit long duration type of properties to go into that, and some of the higher return assets would go into other vehicles.
Haendel St. Juste
analystJonathan, thanks — that was useful. And while I've got you, I'd like to follow up on the balance sheet and the near-term maturities. My understanding is that you've got roughly another $2.9 billion — close to $3 billion — coming due next year at a rate below 3; so I'm curious about your initial thinking on how you'll tackle that. And could you remind us what the weighted average rate is on the new debt cost you managed to raise this year compared with what's expiring? I know you had a similarly low coupon this year. So I'm just curious what lessons we can draw from that, maybe to get a sense of the tools — the leverage — the various levers you can pull to deal with next year's maturities as well?
Jonathan Pong
executiveYes. Haendel, look, it's no secret that a fair amount of debt comes due next year — roughly $2.9 billion at 2.9%; but we've got additional levers to pull this time around. I think the big key and the big differentiating advantage for us is access to the euro market; so if you look at what a 10-year fixed rate unsecured debt costs right now, the euro market sits about 80 basis points inside the U.S., and roughly 140 basis points inside of GDP. So while replicating the debt cost we were able to achieve in 2026 is going to be difficult, since base rates have risen pretty significantly, we do have the ability to play across the curve, particularly on the euro side; and I think we've discussed this quite a bit, but when we do have euro-denominated acquisitions, we do tend to finance those with 100% euro-denominated debt. And then across the overall enterprise we've planned to stick to our 1/3 debt, 2/3 equity capital structure. But the fact that all of our debt can come from a currency with a meaningfully lower cost means we can not only finance the growth in their business, but potentially even refi maturing U.S. dollar debt at lower rates than we'd otherwise get while sticking to that same U.S. dollar currency; so more to come on that front, but I do think we've built a pretty good mousetrap to minimize the interest rate headwinds. There will be some next year, but we've got tools to minimize that.
Alec Feygin
analystOnly 1 for you, Jonathan. You mentioned some detail regarding the moderate level of public equity use and funding so far this year. Are you expecting that 19% figure to become the standard from here on out?
Jonathan Pong
executiveMuch of that will hinge on where our stock happens to be trading. From our perspective, a few pieces are involved. One piece is simply structural — we aim to hold public equity issuance as minimal as we can in any particular year. That being said, should a better cost of capital exist for us through using public equity, we won't hesitate to pursue it. That said, at these levels, and given our capacity to monetize existing real estate held on our balance sheet, at cap rates that are non-dilutive and possibly even accretive, we're going to lean on that lever as much as we're able. I think insurance JVs will likewise act as a source of permanent equity that is also tied to the 10-year yield to some degree. So I believe every one of these elements will feed into the mousetrap of how we finance our deals. That said, I would tell you that periods like 2023, when roughly 60% of our investment volume was funded via public equity, are extremely unlikely to occur again.
Linda Tsai
analystAs you look toward funding your '27 acquisition pipeline, how would you rank the relative attractiveness of the different capital sources available to you?
Jonathan Pong
executiveLinda, this is Jonathan. Well, I'd say the most attractive by far, at the very low end, is clearly European commercial paper, since we're able to issue 30- to 60-day paper at 2.9%. That provides a very attractive carry as we close on transactions in the Eurozone. That being said, it isn't a long-term or permanent financing source. So from there you move up the curve on tenure. Again, remaining in the Eurozone, everything there, to the extent we are making a position care, gives us flexibility to finance both debt and now equity with KKR through a currency whose rates are much lower than in the U.S. So I'd say European commercial paper, then European euro-denominated unsecured fixed rate debt, then euro JVs, and then I'd start from the U.S. dollar side in that same order as well.
Linda Tsai
analystSo looking at the range of strategies we have for generating durable growth — different investment types, retail, industrial data centers, gaming credit on the balance sheet, U.S. core-plus fund JVs across various geographies — how do you think about the multiples those different levers represent? And what sort of premium do you believe you should get to for your valuation?
Sumit Roy
executiveLinda, you clearly know our business very well. That was a solid rundown of everything we're doing. But it all has to show up in AFFO per share growth. That's the single focus behind every one of these levers we've newly incubated, reestablished, or what have you. If that doesn't materialize, then it's simply a list of different things we're capable of doing, and it doesn't actually produce the metric we care about most internally — our AFFO per share, and even more importantly, our AFFO per share growth. So I think your first question was the right one: what sources of financing do we have that can help trap, or permanently finance, the spread investing we're known for? The more growth we have, the better we can grow our dividends, et cetera, which also matters enormously to a certain constituent on the retail side of our business. So what you should take away from all of this is that with all these different avenues we've created for ourselves, we have far more optionality. We're no longer tied to 1 geography. Things move much faster today than they did 10 years ago; and I just spoke about the volatility right here in the 10-year treasury market; and our capacity to capitalize on wherever those highest risk-adjusted returns exist is what sets us apart; and it will translate into a business that is more diversified, less tied to the overall economy, and keeps driving growth the way you've seen realty income do in the past. That's the message. And you're beginning to see some of the benefits of that in how we prefunded our third quarter, how we can — with a very high level of conviction — talk about our fourth quarter, et cetera. And that's because we are a very different company today — more diversified and safer, I'd say. If you look at our AFFO payout ratio, it's among the lowest in the history of Realty Income. So that's who we've become, and we'll keep leaning into that. Every one of these paths we've opened up is going to let us turn into the company we're aiming to be — meaning we're in a far stronger position now than we used to be, and down the road we'll be in an even better place than we are right now.
Jason Wayne
analystIn Q3 specifically, you seemed a little pickier about the deals you pursued compared with the earlier part of the year. I'm just wondering what's behind that, and how the selectivity rate looks for the deals you're reviewing for the programmatic JV platforms?
Mark Hagan
executiveAbsolutely, Jason — this is Mark. I'll handle that one, and the rest of the team should jump in if they want to add anything. Great question. As Sumit mentioned earlier, we sourced $59 billion in Q3, which was a record quarter for us. I think, to get at your question about the selectivity ratio, a high percentage of that actually came from industrial and data center sourcing, which accounted for circa 65% of the volume we sourced. So clearly, as I said in one of the other answers regarding the data center volume we sourced, our high selectivity on those assets, our discipline there, and sticking to our core strategy naturally lead us to source opportunities and not close on as high a percentage of them. And on industrial, which again is a percentage of what we source, there's simply a lot of competition for industrial assets, often at lower cap rates than perhaps other things. So that's really what produced that slightly lower selectivity ratio than we've had in the past. You asked the second part of your question, though — if you could just repeat that second part for me, please.
Sumit Roy
executiveI think, Jason, you talked about our private capital investments. Is that right?
Jason Wayne
analystExactly. Yeah.
Sumit Roy
executiveYeah. So Jason, that approach hasn't shifted. As a matter of fact, we managed to bring in close to — I believe it was $38 million, $39 million in equity capital for our open-ended fund, and that was terrific to witness since we — on an earlier call, I believe, noted that the coming few quarters are going to be about building our track record and demonstrating to the market that we're beating the Odyssey Index, and the inbound interest we're receiving, again, is quite appealing. And clearly, it speaks to the team and the results they're producing. Yet the strategy stays the same; these are high-growth investments. Reduced yields that we couldn't achieve on balance sheet, with a total return profile that's highly compelling and will be — will let us deliver the core, core plus returns we've committed to our investors; and right now we're fully deployed on the equity side, including the fresh capital we've brought in, and we're extremely enthusiastic about what lies ahead.
Jamie Feldman
analystSo I was hoping you could go into more detail about the capital pipeline, particularly insurance capital. You're clearly expanding this business quite quickly. How large does that pipeline look in terms of investment? And are there specific regions or property types it wants you to concentrate on?
Jonathan Pong
executiveJamie, this is Jonathan; I'd say, look, the underlying capital that's seeking this kind of thing is enormous. That wouldn't be the problem. When we consider what suits our business, we need to work through this: right now, I'm not sure we could achieve the kind of capped IRRs we secured with KKR 64 and afterward Apollo at 6.875, given that today's rate environment is different. At present, we would likely show somewhat less enthusiasm for pursuing those at today's prices. That said, should capitalization rates begin climbing and we find that spread continuing to hold, this would still be quite a workable option for us. Nor do I have any worry about the willingness of parties such as those we teamed up with to handle more of this at scale.
Jamie Feldman
analystOkay. Turning to the second item, it sounds as though you want to grow considerably across Europe, or that you perceive appealing chances there, on both the financing and the investment fronts. Plenty of news is also emerging from Europe, concerning fiscal issues, and I'm unsure whether to label it unrest, but headlines for sure. Are there specific nations you just have no interest in? Or are these investments so tied to individual properties that the wider fiscal or political climate in those nations barely matters? Or are there certain nations you're quite ready to enter while feeling more cautious about others?
Sumit Roy
executiveJamie, you've got it exactly right. Europe is dealing with quite a lot of upheaval. It started over in France. From there it spread to Italy and then reached the Benelux nations. We're very conscious of the political instability. Still, I believe your intuition is on target regarding what we put money into, including on the retail side — the type of retail assets we back. And naturally, when you look at the industrial portion of things, we are — I won't say insulated, but by and large we aren't exposed to the problems that have cropped up lately in a few of those countries. So the investments we hold in France—none of them were affected by what you saw happening there. And obviously, the events in Northern Italy and elsewhere had no effect on us either. But that's simply because of the kind of retail investments we make: essential categories like grocery and home improvement, and the fact that these assets are usually situated in retail parks in the suburbs rather than in city centers. Our assets are far better protected—though I promised myself I'd avoid that particular word—from this sort of disruption than properties located in the urban core, at main and main, where these agitators are able to exert a far greater influence. That dynamic, I believe, helps explain the situation we're currently observing. As a result, we consider ourselves substantially shielded from the flare-ups that have taken place. We're also quite confident that the investments we're making will, when you rank priorities by exposure to impact, sit at the very bottom—the least likely to be affected by such flare-ups. So our sentiment on this is fairly positive.
Greg McGinniss
analystSumit here — let me push a little more directly and read between the lines of what you said about credit investments. Should we be expecting a bigger share of credit investments in Q4 and early next year versus year-to-date, whether that's until the cost of capital gets better or real estate cap rates adjust upward? Or is Europe going to fill that gap instead?
Sumit Roy
executiveLook, I don't think — I'm not going to answer you quarter by quarter on what percentage our credit investments will represent. But here's what I will tell you — and I believe I've laid out our investment thesis for why credit investments make sense. It’s not going to take over our investment allocation everywhere; and I’ve already mentioned that our balance sheet is $85 billion to $90 billion. What we’re discussing would be a portion of that—an extremely small portion, in the single digits of allocation. And there’s another point I want to make sure you appreciate, Greg: much of what we’re doing is on a < > basis. Some of the transactions you’ll begin to see will look and feel a lot like an equity investment when it comes to duration and similar terms. What will really set these investments apart is the far better yield they offer, along with substantially more collateral, since the debt piece will sit at a considerably lower LTV than you'd see in an ordinary sale leaseback. That's only possible thanks to the relationships we've built and the assets we want some exposure to—though not really through equity, given how pricey it is to compete in that space. So that factor is what will shape the kinds of investments we pursue. The financing headwind Jonathan mentioned, driven by elevated rates, is partly offset because we can capitalize on that same rate backdrop. That's the lens to use when evaluating our credit investments. Even so, it won't abruptly grow to 15% or 12% of the total balance sheet—that isn't the plan.
Greg McGinniss
analystAll right. Okay, and separately, when should we anticipate a second swing from Apollo or KKR, which would help show how programmatic these joint ventures are? I'm not after specifics here, perhaps just whether it's expected inside the next year? And would those investments also need that adjusted spread math Jonathan mentioned?
Jonathan Pong
executiveYes, Greg, I think — demand is so strong right now, since the annuity origination business is pushing demand for this kind of paper backed by real assets; so again, I'd repeat that the optionality really sits with us; and again, I'll say the 6.875% with Apollo, that deal isn't there today in my view, because base rates are much higher; so then we have to consider all our other sources of equity. Clearly we have more than $1 billion of free cash flow today. Dispositions will become a bigger and bigger portion of our business, and they'll be at cap rates that are nondilutive. We still have $1.1 billion of public equity outstanding on a forward basis; so we could be patient. But if we don't want to raise equity at certain AFFO yields, I don't think we'd want to raise insurance and JV equity at yields close to those either; now the longer-term benefit is that we effectively retain all the upside in the leases, because it's a capped IRR concept. But we do have to keep that in mind if we want to be a modest user, perhaps $1 billion, $1.5 billion a year of this kind of equity as we did this past year. Do you really want to use it at a moment when rates are still fairly elevated? So TBD, but I would expect it to be $1 billion to $1.5 billion based on our current run rate of acquisitions annually.
Eric Borden
analystJonathan, now that the credit loss outlook has dropped to 30 basis points, did some particular tenant circumstance work out better than you'd anticipated? Or is it mostly that you're freeing up reserves for losses you haven't identified yet; and then, with the improved bad debt guidance now in effect, how does that shift how you think about where next year starts out?
Jonathan Pong
executiveEric. For us, I'd say, if you set aside the pandemic year, we've typically run nearer 20 to 21 basis points of credit loss each year; so with it now at 30, yes, I'd say part of that is freeing up some reserves we hadn't specifically identified. And clearly, sitting here in November, our visibility is much improved. So 30, on its own, is likely a touch conservative too. So, we're somewhat inside that range, and we're back where we've been historically. Last year stood out somewhat, simply because of all the M&A-related credit loss we took on, which we anticipated and underwrote, but it all landed last year. So going forward in 2027, I'd expect us to keep moving along at credit loss rates very much like those we've seen historically. So roughly within that 20 to 30 basis point range. You always want a bit of conservatism early in the year, simply because you can't know what lies ahead, and then you free up that unidentified portion as the year progresses; but looking at the watch list right now, looking at how healthy the portfolio is and how diversified it is, we don't see anything in the numbers or the analytics pointing to any outliers beyond roughly that normalized run rate.
Eric Borden
analystGreat. And then one thing on that Dallas industrial portfolio. I'm just curious — that 45% mark-to-market, how much of it can you capture over the next 3 to 5 years? And are there any renewal options or other lease terms that might potentially push that upside out for you guys?
Neil Abraham
executiveI'll take that one. It's Neil here. All of it — 100% — is achievable over the next 3.5 years.
Jay Kornreich
analystJonathan, KKR came on board this quarter as a fresh joint-venture partner. So I'm just wondering whether you could give us any sense of how many other distinctive strategic partnerships you expect to establish. Or can you point to any examples of new strategies you'd want to implement?
Jonathan Pong
executiveJay, my guess is that we'll probably keep any new ideas or strategies private. I think we've been over this before. A great many of these strategies have a very lengthy incubation period, going from concept to negotiation to closing documents; and so — but I'd keep repeating what we've been saying, it feels like for the last 2 years, that on the finance and capital market side our #1 goal is creating vehicles that are deep, programmatic, that widen the buy box, that have very little overlap among strategies and that keep us from being beholden to the public equity market. So whether we're talking about other strategic partners who see value in this operating platform — and there are plenty of them — I think once you start having those conversations, you realize that having the track record, the scale of this company, the institutional knowledge, and access to more data than anybody else — very sophisticated, large institutions place a great deal of value on all of those elements. And as you can tell, just from the headlines, a lot of institutions are looking to build net lease platforms of their own or buy smaller ones; so if we're able to leverage that platform and monetize it in ways that are unique to us, we're going to take advantage of that. We'll approach this with strong governance so that we avoid excessive overlap among strategies, whether that overlap comes through currency or through return profile.
Ryan Caviola
analystOn this call you've been candid that your focus has moved away from U.S. retail, and that also appears to be what's behind the pickup in dispositions, with retail rent falling in dollar terms this quarter. Where do you expect U.S. retail to settle over the long term as a percentage of the portfolio? And what's changed in the industry that makes it appealing enough to get there?
Sumit Roy
executiveNo; we love U.S. retail, Ryan. What I mean is that we're clearly finding opportunities with a better risk-adjusted return profile than what we find here in the U.S. It's also true on inherent growth and so forth that U.S. retail generally has much less of that internal growth, apart from the higher-yielding retail opportunities here. But then the question is whether you're being compensated for the risk you take on with those higher-yielding retail opportunities. Different people reach different conclusions on that. So for us, it comes down to: where can we find greater internal growth and better risk-adjusted returns? And at the moment, we're finding that in the areas we've highlighted during this call. But 78%, and let's say the vast, vast majority of that 78% is U.S. retail. So some degree of repositioning is justified to arrive at a much more balanced, more diversified portfolio. And I believe that's what's driving where we're investing and some of the commentary we've shared with the market, Ryan.
Sumit Roy
executiveMuch appreciated for being on this call, and I’m looking forward to crossing paths with many of you at NAREIT. Thanks, Rocco.
Operator
operatorThanks, everyone — that brings today's conference call to a close. We appreciate all of you for joining today's presentation. At this point you're welcome to disconnect your lines, and have a wonderful day.
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