Veren Inc. (VRN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. My name is Julie, and I will be your operator for Crescent Point Energy's Conference Call. This conference call is being recorded and will be webcast along with a slide deck, which can be found on Crescent Point's website homepage. The webcast may not be recorded or rebroadcast without the express consent of Crescent Point Energy. All amounts discussed today are in Canadian dollars with the exception of WTI pricing, which is quoted in U.S. dollars. [Operator Instructions] During the call, management may make projections or other forward-looking statements regarding future events or future financial performance. Actual performance, events or results may differ materially. Additional information or factors that could affect Crescent Point's operations or financial results are included in Crescent Point's most recent annual information form, which may be accessed through the Crescent Point SEDAR or EDGAR's website or by contacting Crescent Point Energy. Management also calls your attention to the forward-looking information in the non-GAAP measures section of the press release issued earlier today. I will now turn the call over to Craig Bryksa, President and Chief Executive Officer at Crescent Point. Please go ahead.

Thank you, operator. And good morning, everyone. I'd like to welcome everyone as we discuss our exciting strategic acquisition of Spartan Delta's assets in the Alberta Montney. With me today are Ken Lamont, our Chief Financial Officer; and Justin Foraie, our Vice President of Engineering and Marketing. Before I discuss this acquisition in detail, I'd like to first emphasize the key pillars that have been core to our success over the past few years. Our team has been relentless in pursuing initiatives to strengthen our balance sheet and enhance our sustainability. We have achieved great success through these initiatives and have significantly reduced our net debt and enhanced our excess cash flow generation, which has allowed us to materially augment shareholder returns. Through these efforts, we have positioned the company to be opportunistic in pursuing this acquisition. We recently updated the analyst community on our strategic Kaybob Duvernay position, which underpins our long-term plans. Our acquisition in the Alberta Montney is yet another strategic move that enhances our long-term sustainability, our excess cash flow per share and our return of capital to shareholders. Both our Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney assets align with our strategy of focusing on high-quality resource plays that meet our [ said ] asset criteria around returns, scalability, excess cash flow generation and market access. Most significantly, these Montney assets include over 20 years of drilling inventory and increase our total corporate inventory of premium locations to 15 years. Strategically, the acquired lands are ideally situated in the volatile oil window and have similar reservoir characteristics to our adjacent Kaybob Duvernay play, where we have achieved significant operational excellence over the last 2 years. In addition to being accretive to our portfolio, this acquisition is also immediately accretive on a financial basis, enhancing our adjusted funds flow and excess cash flow per share by approximately 20%, resulting in an increased total return of capital to our shareholders. This acquisition is also accretive to our 2P net asset value by approximately 7%. On closing, which is expected on May 10, 2023, we will maintain our base dividend and continue to return 50% of our discretionary excess cash flow to our shareholders. Taken together, this equates to approximately 60% of our excess cash flow being returned to our shareholders. We expect to deliver these additional returns primarily through share repurchases, our preferred method of returning capital, and through our base dividend. Our ability to maintain our 50% return of capital target is driven by the enhanced sustainability and excess cash flow generation our assets are expected to deliver. We are excited about our improved outlook following this transaction and plan to revisit our base dividend over time. I'll now provide a bit more color on these Alberta Montney assets and the strategic benefits they will provide to Crescent Point. The assets included in this transaction have a deep inventory across a large contiguous land base, situated primarily within the volatile oil window; attractive reservoir characteristics, including significant pay thickness and favorable permeability and porosity; substantial production of approximately 38,000 BOE per day that is generating significant excess cash flow; and development-ready locations with ample well licenses, infrastructure and marketing agreements already in place to meet our development plans. The oil and liquids weighted assets are strategically located within the Alberta portion of the Montney formation, just north of our Kaybob Duvernay assets. The consolidated land base includes approximately 235,000 net acres of land with Montney rights in the Gold Creek and Karr areas. We have internally identified approximately 600 net drilling locations associated with these lands, providing us over 20 years of inventory to sustain current production levels. I would note that only 25% of these identified locations are currently booked by the independent evaluators, providing significant unbooked upside potential similar to our Kaybob Duvernay asset. Our Montney locations are conservatively based on the development of a single bench within this potential multi-zone resource play. In select areas where there is significant pay thickness alongside other attractive reservoir characteristics like permeability and porosity, we will look to potentially develop a second bench. We also believe that there are additional opportunities to create value through further optimization of drilling and completion designs as we have realized in Kaybob, and we will also monitor well spacing as another area for potential enhancement. Given the close proximity of these assets and similarities to our Kaybob Duvernay play, we look forward to benefiting from knowledge transfer, anticipating delivering added efficiencies within our capital programs in the area. The [ curved ] type wells booked in this asset are expected to pay out in approximately 10 months from the initial onstream date, based on current cost and commodity prices. These wells are also economic in a lower commodity price environment with attracted breakevens below $40 per barrel WTI. These economics and returns, like the returns we see in our Kaybob Duvernay asset, rank in the top quartile within our portfolio, providing us additional flexibility within our capital program. We plan to manage the development of these assets in a disciplined manner, focusing on conservative production profile to maximize excess cash flow, sustainability and the return of capital to our shareholders. To realize this opportunity, we have structured an agreement that is immediately accretive to our shareholders. Total cash consideration for the transaction is approximately $1.7 billion, which will be funded through our existing credit facilities. The purchase price equates to approximately 3.2x to 3.4x for net operating income at a $70 to $75 per barrel WTI pricing and a recycle ratio of approximately 2.2x to 2.3x, including future development capital. Our leverage ratio is expected to be 1.3x adjusted funds flow at closing and 1x at year-end 2023, based on $75 WTI. To provide us with additional liquidity beyond this transaction, we have also implemented a new 2-year revolving credit facility of $400 million. As a result, we will retain our financial flexibility by maintaining approximately $850 million of overall liquidity following closing. We are committed to maintaining our balance sheet strength as we have shown over the last 5 years, and we'll pursue noncore asset dispositions to optimize our portfolio and our financial position. Our near-term goal is to reduce our net debt by approximately $1 billion over the next 12 months, funded through our strong excess cash flow generation and proceeds from potential noncore asset dispositions. Longer term, our goal remains to target a leverage ratio of 1x in the lower commodity price environment. As a result of this acquisition, we are revising our 2023 annual production guidance range to 160,000 to 166,000 BOE per day, with development capital expenditures of $1.15 billion to $1.25 billion. This prudent budget, which includes our base dividend, continues to be fully funded at approximately $50 per barrel WTI. Our revised 2023 capital program -- capital budget, sorry, incorporates approximately $150 million of capital expenditures associated with the newly-acquired assets. We plan to manage the Montney assets by drilling approximately 25 wells per year, which requires approximately $250 million of annual capital expenditures, inclusive of facilities and infrastructure spending. Under our revised 5-year plan, we expect to grow annual production approximately -- to approximately 195,000 BOE per day by 2027. Our Montney and Kaybob Duvernay assets are expected to represent approximately 45% of our pro forma production at closing and grow to approximately 60% of our total volumes by 2027. This forecast is expected to generate approximately $5.2 billion of cumulative after-tax excess cash flow or $9.57 per share at $75 per barrel WTI, representing an increase of approximately 20% in comparison to our prior outlook, reflecting the significant accretion of this transaction. As you can tell, we are very excited about this acquisition. This is a new chapter we are writing in the company's future. In closing, we believe this acquisition provides us with an incredible opportunity to strengthen our asset portfolio and sustainability through an accretive transaction. Finally, I would like to thank our shareholders for their patience as we have fundamentally rebuilt and strengthened the company over the last 5 years. As a result of our efforts, our optimized asset portfolio will include significant depth of inventory in both the Kaybob Duvernay and the Alberta Montney while also maintaining substantial low decline in cash flow-generating assets in Saskatchewan. I'll now open the call to questions regarding this transaction from members of the investment community. Operator, please open the call.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Travis Wood from National Bank Financial.

Congrats on the transaction. Looking at Slide 7 and kind of thinking about the inventory that you've highlighted at 600, how should we think about kind of the breakdown of that across Gold Creek West, Gold Creek East specifically and then potentially drilling activity each year as well as kind of a capital intensity between the east and the west part of that block?

Travis, thanks for the question. Sorry to get you up so early, but happy to be on the call. And we're happy to have executed on this deal, and I think you're going to see the excitement here from the team over the next little while as we engage and talk through it. But when you look at the inventory, so we're looking at about 600 locations across the asset base. When you look at Gold Creek West, roughly 300 in there. And then as you target into Gold Creek East, you have 200. And then as you move down south into Karr, we have 100 in there. At the early parts here, we're going to be looking at mainly targeting Gold Creek West and Gold Creek East with our development plans over the next, call it, 12 months, and then we'll see how things play out from there. But we're looking at about a one-rig drilling program here in the near term, call it, 25-ish wells a year. And including the facilities capital spend on an annualized basis, that's going to work out to around $250 million of annualized capital spend. The other thing I would tell you, too, Travis, is when you're looking at it in the context of spacing, keep in mind that we've got an average well density in here of about 300-meter spacing. So that's how we've looked at it. And again, as we've done in the past, Travis, is we've entered into these basins and in particular, in the Kaybob play, we targeted the volatile oil window or the condensate rich fairway. So in this transaction, extremely happy to come out with a position that we did right in that, like I say, volatile oil.

Okay. And you mentioned facility spend. Nothing major on facility spend through the region and able to leverage off existing facilities. As kind of day-to-day operations go and just thinking about that spending, you probably have that earmarked for more kind of growth and expansion and maintenance rather than new facility spend?

Yes, you're right. So there's enough infrastructure in the area to handle our current forecast. We have looked out over the 20 years. We do see about $300 million needs to be spent and built out over that 20 years. So when you look at that on an annualized basis on a per well basis, it's not all that much of a burden. So in the near term, with our plan, the way it is, facility spend isn't overly burdensome. So...

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Aaron Bilkoski from TD Cowen.

I guess my question is on the long-term production trajectory. You outlined a multiyear plan for the Duvernay last week, and I'm curious how you expect the Montney assets to trend over the next few years from a production and a capital perspective.

Aaron, yes, so when we look at it, right now, we're averaging right around 38,000 BOE per day in the next 12 months. Our profile with that, call it, 25 wells a year, I had this right in around that, call it, 40,000 to 45,000 BOE per day over the next 5 years. And then we start to have some growth on the back end of that. Keep in mind, though, too, Aaron, like we did in the Duvernay, as we get into an asset and we start to understand the asset, maybe at some point in time, we bring in a second rig. But for right now, we look at the plan and have it mapped out with the one-rig program over the next 5 years, and like I was saying, about $250 million a year. And that would hold production in that 45,000-ish range during that time period. But as we get better and smarter, maybe that changes.

All right. I guess maybe a follow-up question with your presentation. It looks as though the Montney, in general, has slightly higher IRRs. I think just as a basin in general, it's arguably a little bit more delineated. It has more running room for you than the Duvernay. I guess, should we expect Crescent Point to shift some capital from the Duvernay to the Montney over the next coming years? And I guess if the answer is no, why not?

Yes. So right now, Aaron, like we talked about last week at our Analyst Day, we brought in that -- where we have that second rig coming into the Duvernay here in October, and we're extremely excited about that. I think if you've seen what we've done in the Duvernay over the last 2 years, we've taken significant strides on overall efficiencies and the returns and the ultimate well performance from that play. So we're extremely excited about that play and are going to continue to develop that. Again, Aaron, like we did in the Duvernay, the Montney [ hook ] fall is similar. We're going to get in there with one rig. We're going to -- where I get excited about this, Aaron, is when we start to get our operations team and let them loosen there and really have them learn and understand the assets. And then once we really have a figure or a feel for how the reservoir behaves and how operationally we can get more efficient, then look for us to bring in a second rig. But I wouldn't expect that second rig to be peeling capital away from the Duvernay. Like I said, we are extremely excited about the Duvernay. If anything, I think we would shift capital from the rest of the portfolio and layer that into the Montney. So ideally, over time, as you start to get into steady state, you get a couple of rig programs in both of these areas. You're leveraging off the efficiencies just between how close the 2 areas are on that front. So maybe you can utilize one frac spread for the 4 rigs and have that frac spread running full time. So as we've demonstrated in the past, when we come into a new area, we strategically target certain phase envelopes. And in this case and in all cases, it's the oil window and -- the volatile oil window, sorry, and the condensate window. So happy with this position, but look for us to get in there, get smarter quickly, get efficient and then leverage off of the Kaybob position as well. And then like I was saying, I don't expect it to peel capital away from the Duvernay. I expect it to peel capital away from the rest of the portfolio.

That's great. That's helpful. Just one more quick question for me. What's the current decline rate on the acquired assets?

It's about 37%, Aaron. So now when you look at Crescent Point pro forma, we're just slightly under 30%. So if you remember, we were averaging around 26-ish, 27% corporately. This one is a little bit higher, so it does bring up the overall corporate average to just under 30%. But certainly, a decline rate that we feel we can maintain, and if not, continue to drive down over time, especially with our commitment to decline mitigation in particular, in both Southeast and Southwest Saskatchewan through the waterfloods and the polymer floods that we've been advancing there. And Aaron, even just -- think you and I have talked quite a bit over the last few years. And when you think of us in Crescent Point and what we're building ultimately for portfolio, we think of, like I've mentioned, a combination of short-cycle assets and long-cycle assets and how ultimately having those two types of assets really build a balanced, resilient portfolio that allows you to weather the commodity price cycles, this is why we're so excited about this. We've brought in a premier play in the Kaybob Duvernay. We've now brought in another premium play in the Alberta Montney. And we pair those with the long-cycle assets that we have underway in Saskatchewan in both, like I was saying, Southwest and Southeast with the waterfloods. We've got short-cycle assets in Kaybob Duvernay and Montney, the long-cycle assets in the waterfloods. Ultimately, that builds, we feel, a very balanced resilient portfolio. And the other thing too, Aaron, to keep in mind, this company punches well above its weight when you think at netbacks and excess cash flow generation on a per share basis, and that's really built on the assets that we have put into this portfolio. So I am getting extremely excited about what we've done in the transformation of this company over the last 5 years. So...

[Operator Instructions] Your next question comes from Dennis Fong from CIBC World Markets.

I've got two here. Maybe the first one is to follow on Aaron's question there. Maybe just kind of picking into the mining economics, obviously, very strong, and the discussion around possibly shifting capital, not necessarily away from Duvernay, but away from other assets. How should we be thinking about the company's portfolio? And I agree, and I know you just outlined kind of short- and long-duration assets there. But as you potentially pull capital away from some other assets, you've done a good job in terms of high-grading assets removing, call it, abandonment liability from your balance sheet, how do you look at things shifting potentially going forward, especially if the Montney does command more capital on a go-forward basis?

Dennis, and thanks for the question. When you think of our portfolio and what we've done over the last 5 years, it's been a very disciplined transformation on what we're trying to build, and that's what I was getting into on that short cycle and long cycle, and now having these pieces really come together has really got this team and this Board excited about what we're building. So when you look at the go-forward capital allocation, over time with the returns in the Montney being as competitive as they are in the Duvernay, look for us to allocate more capital to the Montney. So if you think about on a steady state, Montney and Duvernay are going to now take a big portion of the lion's share of our capital allocation rate, based on returns. And those assets warrant that capital, so we're going to give them that capital. When you look at some of the other assets in the portfolio, we'll look to see what fits and what doesn't fit in the long-term portfolio plans for us. And there may be potential that we move an asset or two out on that front. So we'll see how that plays out. But like I say, our ultimate portfolio is really being built around what I've described, short cycle and long cycle, and we're extremely excited about how this has been coming together. And then again, there may be some things that move out, and we'll see how that ends up shaping out. But that's going to be based on the asset criteria that we have, right, return, scalability, free cash flow generation and then market access. And there's some assets in here that just maybe don't have what we need for those core attributes, and we'll look to move those out.

Great, great. My second question, just digging into the Montney a little bit more so, it's just around existing infrastructure. I know there's a fair amount of excess that happens to be in the region. So you describe a little bit more around, on a go-forward basis, how you can potentially utilize a lot more of that infrastructure. So maybe that lowers the "sustaining" or capital requirements being allocated towards the Montney. Just how you're maybe thinking about that near to medium term, especially as it fits within the portfolio?

Yes. And like I mentioned, too, so in the near term, in the near term, infrastructure isn't an issue for us. We've got plenty of takeaway capacity and plenty of facilities in the area that can handle, like I was saying, in that, call it, 45,000-ish BOE per day over the next few years. I do have Justin Foraie here, who is our Vice President of Engineering and Marketing, and he's probably best equipped to answer some of these. So Justin, do you want to give him some color?

Sure. Thanks for the question, Dennis. So yes, in our new Montney asset, obviously, there's two different areas that I see. There's Gold Creek East and Karr and Gold Creek West. Gold Creek East and Karr are under agreement with PGI, who is responsible for constructing and operating for wellsites. So that obviously gives us the ability to develop that do not have a lot of capital in our budget. Where in Gold Creek West, that will be our responsibility to develop and build out that infrastructure. So as we continue to develop in Gold Creek West, we'll have some capital commitments to build out that [ infrastructure ] in that $250 million of capital that we're allocating to the Montney. Around $15 million of that will be -- per year will be for infrastructure and facility build.

That's one of the things we like about this, right, is the infrastructure that's in place already. And it doesn't require a significant build-out, which certainly helps the development plans, going forward, to all the boxes, in particular, the volatile oil fairway as we are a liquids company.

Presenters, there are no further questions at this time. Please proceed with your closing remarks.

Thanks, everybody, for taking the time to join the call. I hope you're excited, too. If you have any questions that we didn't get to, just please reach out to [ Shant ], Sarfraz or Ken or I, we're always around. So thanks again, everyone.

This concludes your conference call for today. We thank you for joining, and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.