Veren Inc. (VRN) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
March 20, 2024
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Craig Bryksa
executiveOkay. Just for those of you that don't know me, I'm Craig Bryksa, President and CEO of Crescent Point. Thank you all for attending today. I know it was a day where we all plan for it to be sunny and warmy. But again, it's Calgary, so you really can't plan for the weather. But again, thanks for coming out. I think we've got a great morning here for you, a good couple of hours. As you're all well aware, the transformation that's occurred within Crescent Point here over the last 5 years and over really the last 3 years in particular. And you've all witnessed this portfolio build-out that we've slowly and methodically made our way through over the last 3 years. And we're happy to talk to you about that today. And we're going to give you some color, the technical team is going to come off and give you a color on why we did it, where we saw opportunities, where we think we can improve things. And then we're going to show you on how that flows into our 5-year plan, and we're going to give you some color on our 10-year plan and what that looks like, and this will be the first time that we're walking you through that, too. So a little bit of insights to the technical aspects, where we see the upside in both the production performance, the cost structure and then how that flows into the business itself and what that means for our 5, 10-year plan and ultimately returns for our shareholders, and that's really what we're building towards. The other thing that we're going to walk you through a little bit today on, and it's something that we really haven't talked to you about, that we developed 5 years ago. So if you think of this management team, we're pretty much in place now for about 6 years. And about 5 years ago, we really started to work on our long-term vision for the company and what does that look like. To put this long-term strategy in place, and we knew it as a management team and we knew it with the Board and that we had worked through all this, but we couldn't really quite tell everybody in this room and everybody online what we are doing. So we're going to walk you through a little bit about that. And it's really the foundation that helped us as we made our decisions along the way. And it's really a kudos to the management team and to the Board. I'm staying disciplined to that strategy as we made our way through it over the last 5 years. So I'm extremely excited to bring that to you. We haven't talked about it a lot in the past. We'll talk to a little bit about it today. But I do think it's going to be a great presentation. There's going to be lots of technical data. There's going to be lots of financial data. At the end, we're going to have a good Q&A. So enjoy yourselves. And as we get going, we'll try and hold questions till the end. But again, on behalf of myself, the executive team and then the Board, thank you all for attending. So what we'll do is get Shelly Witwer, our Senior Vice President of Business Development up, to kick us off. So thanks, everyone.
Shelly Witwer
executiveGood morning, everybody. For those of you that haven't met me before, I'm Shelly Witwer. I'm the Senior Vice President of Business Development at Crescent Point. And it's a real pleasure today to have the opportunity to speak to you all. Before we get started, however, we are going to start with a formal land acknowledgment. So Crescent Point respectfully acknowledges our head office and our field operations are situated within the traditional territories of diverse Indigenous peoples of Treaty 4, Treaty 6, Treaty 7, Treaty 8 and the Metis Nation. We recognize an honor that many First Nations, Metis and Inuit people who have stewarded these lands for centuries. We are committed to advancing reconciliation and engaging with Indigenous communities in a respectful and collaborative manner. So last year, the theme around our Analyst Day was really focused on educating the investment community on our Kaybob Duvernay assets. The main focus of today's agenda is going to be centered around Mike, Katie Anne and Justin, speaking to the quality of our Montney assets and the opportunities we see in front of them to optimize development on the asset base. After the Montney portion, Justin will provide a brief operational update on our Kaybob Duvernay assets and show how this play continues to add significant shareholder value and deliver consistent results. Following the Montney discussion, Ryan will walk through our Saskatchewan assets, highlighting the importance of the excess cash flow that these assets generate in order to fund our growth assets in the Montney and the Duvernay. Ken will bring it all together and speak to the corporate portfolio and our enhanced 5- and 10-year outlook. And then we'll end with some closing remarks by Craig. And like Craig said, we'll have lots of time at the end for Q&A. So those of you that are participating on the webcast today, you can log your questions on the webcast, and Shant will moderate them at the end of the presentation. So some of you participating today may not have been following the Crescent Point story closely. So here's a quick snapshot of who we are and where we operate. As you can see from the map, we have a very highly focused asset base in Alberta with our Kaybob and our Montney assets. These are complemented by our long-cycle, low decline assets in Saskatchewan. We produce roughly around 200,000 BOEs a day, of which we are 65% liquids weighted. We generate a significant amount of excess cash flow relative to the size of company we are and which we are returning 60% of that to our shareholders through our return of capital framework, which Ken will come back to later on. So as Craig mentioned, Crescent Point is a very focused strategy that allows us to deliver an attractive total return proposition to our shareholders. Craig will dive into greater detail in his closing remarks on how we define our strategy and the key components that drive it. But a key piece of our strategy is owning a multi-basin portfolio that allows us to deliver the sustainable long-term returns. The total return proposition is delivered by a combination of disciplined per-share growth, which we do through our capital allocation framework and enhancing value through operational excellence, returning significant of capital to our shareholders, and we're currently returning 60%, and we have a plan to increase this over time. And lastly, maintaining balance sheet strength. We have a track record of significant debt reduction and in our current 5-year plan, we plan to reduce our net debt by over 50%. So as mentioned, the portfolio is at the center of delivering on this strategy, and building this asset portfolio has been a key strategic focus over the last 5 years. We have a very defined asset screening criteria that Mike is going to get into in a slide coming up that really focused us in on the Montney and the Duvernay, and our recent Montney acquisitions have really bolstered our short-cycle portfolio. We have an optimal mix now of short and long cycle assets that provide us with the ability to have consistent sustainable cash flows, low breakevens opportunity for disciplined growth as well as flexibility through a variety of different commodity cycles. We're extremely proud of the portfolio that we've built, and the technical team today will walk you through the quality of each of these assets in the presentation. So let's just take a look at how we've transformed the portfolio and built this optimal mix. We like to say that a picture is worth a thousand words. So I'd kind of draw your attention to this picture. And on the left-hand side of the diagram, you can see that in 2017, we owned a number of different assets across a number of different operating areas. Starting in 2021, with the Kaybob Duvernay asset acquisition, we have continued to high grade our asset base to be a more efficient, sustainable and profitable portfolio and with improved capital efficiencies, reduced ARO and reduced emissions and over 20 years' of premium inventory. We now have a much more focused asset base with only 3 core operating areas. We're now at an inflection point and we're set to deliver on that balanced strategy that I just spoke to you on. The team is very excited to execute on this organic growth plan going forward. So now that the portfolio transformation is complete, you can look for us to shift our strategic focus to the following areas. Operational execution, executing on our organic growth plan centered around achieving operational efficiencies and maintaining capital discipline while we meet or exceed our targets, which we have previously demonstrated in the Kaybob Duvernay and we will demonstrate in the Montney. Balance sheet strength, allocating 40% of our excess cash flow to debt repayment with the opportunity to accelerate that through additional non-core dispositions, which we're currently working on. And increasing our return of capital. As the balance sheet strengthens, we will look to increase the return of capital, which Ken will come back to later on in his slides. We have a track record for delivering on each of these priorities and the management and team in place and that's excited to execute on this long-term organic growth plan. So before I hand things off to Mike to kick off the Montney portion of the presentation, I'd like to build off what Craig started with at the beginning of the presentation and a few key things that we hope you take away from our team today. Number one, all aspects of our business are guided by our corporate strategy that is focused on delivering long-term value. Number two, we have built a quality asset base and a quality portfolio by adding the Montney and the Duvernay and have materially improved our long-term outlook. And number three, we believe we have one of the most attractive total returns profiles for our shareholders going forward. So with all that as the foundation, let's get into the Montney and see why we're so excited today. Mike?
MIke Blair
executiveOkay. Everyone hear me okay? All right. Thanks, Shelly. Let's -- as you said, let's get rolling here. So we're going to dive into the technical portion today and start with the geology on our new Montney assets. So a year ago, we were here talking about the Duvernay, talking about the competitive condensate rates we're seeing there, what we're going to do different with that asset and showing how really excited we are. You're going to see a little bit of that later today. Why I mentioned it is, I think we're around the same stage in the Montney today. We have a great resource, great looking potential and several ways to optimize it. So I'm going to walk you through that. So I'm going to start with just to -- walk through the -- a little bit of detail behind the screening, then talk about the geology of these Montney assets, getting a real appreciation for how much opportunity potential is actually here, and then show you how we're going to do things differently before discussing specific opportunities for improvement. Okay. So the best companies are in the best rock. We said this many times over the last 5 years as we patiently and strategically worked to rebuild this portfolio. How do we end up with over 20 years of inventory in the Montney and Duvernay? Well, we started with devoting a team focused solely on building this portfolio. We searched across North America just to understand inventory and quality in all the oil-focused basins across the continent, really just making sure we stayed focused on acquiring that best rock. The graph here on this slide is an output of an internal model. We built to pair possible assets with Crescent Point to see how the inventory life would look pro forma. So the ratio shown by that bisecting line is 100 locations for every 10,000 BOE a day of production for any given asset or opportunity. And this served as a great yardstick to understand where we want to be as far as our strategy and really was a compass to remain disciplined on that strategy. So looking at that graph, below the line, an asset like that struggles to maintain itself for 10 years, and maintaining itself, meaning keeping its production flat. And in the process, it would make Crescent Point worse. We're looking for stuff to add inventory to the company. So above that line is where you want to be. And above that line, assets can not only maintain themselves and grow for over 10 years, but make Crescent Point better in the process, right? So that's where we wanted to focus. So knowing that, you can see our disciplined strategy play on our one graph here, which I think is a really, really good image. You see we dispose of assets below the line, 2 red dots represent North Dakota and Utah, and we acquired assets above that line. So starting with Shell's Kaybob asset right on that line, great asset, astute deal, followed that up with [ Repsol ] and Paramount inventory deals in Kaybob and not long after, we pounced on 2 Montney assets with great inventory to see well above that line. So again, you can really see we're sitting here now with around 2,000 locations in the Montney and Duvernay, 150,000 BOE a day of production, we're in rarefied air here. Rock and inventory like this is hard to find. And we found it and we pounced on it. And we're excited to show you that. So one of the questions we get with this industry focus on inventory is why was this inventory still available to us. So I think the series of maps gives you a clue. The development prior to 2020 and even slightly beyond that was really focused on the liquids-rich overpressure window growing out of Kakwa. So as you move up into that volatile oil window, you really have to do your homework. And you have to know how the geology changes and what drives productivity. So you can see our timing here was fortunate to grab this inventory. I'd like to think of it as right time, right place, right team. We are leaning on our experience in the volatile oil windows of North Dakota, Utah and even our previous Duvernay work to come in here and enter this play with confidence. Okay. I mentioned homework. Well, the homework starts with the rock. We see excellent results in Karr and Gold Creek. And this image is really just a quick stop here to show that the geology of these 2 areas is not identical. And that's -- the understanding of these differences is the key to unlocking value here. So current Gold Creek. The way I like to say it are good, but for different reasons. Both are good, but for different reasons. So Karr is more straightforward, growing out of that Kakwa area. It is overpressured. You see similar results to offsetting producers, a little easier to understand. Katie Anne is going to show you some of that data in her presentation. What I want to reassert is that Gold Creek is also good, but for different reasons. The unique geology we see here is key to the play. One of the biggest highlights is the porosity and permeability increasing towards the north and east with that sand content also increasing -- getting closer to that ancient shoreline. So I explain this to people as, this area is unconventional enough to have trapped oil and gas, but conventional enough for oil to flow at a normal pressured [ rock ], setting up this normal pressured Montney oil window. So we discussed the difference between the 2 areas. I think what I'm more excited about is what they have in common. And that's a staggering amount of oil in place. There's a huge resource here. We have 170 meters to 200 meters of pay across this land base. This is oil in place rivaled by very few areas. On the right, you can see the net pay in each zone is not distributed evenly across each layer. But having done the work to understand how this resource is distributed throughout this Montney stack is really the key to our success here. Knowing the stack is what feeds our development plans. So how to attack the stack? We get questions on why one bench in some areas and two benches in others. So I think the way to think about that is it's the right approach for the right area. Predecessors drilled higher densities here and 2 benches by default. We like to use all the tools in our toolkit to drive efficiencies on our drilling completions. So here, I use an example of poor pressure, understanding that pressure within the formation. We drill one bench where we see pressure gradually decrease throughout that stack, throughout the formation, where we don't see any frac barriers. And I'm going to show you an example of how we can show you that, that's working. And in areas where we see a pressure increase in the top half of that Montney formation, such as Karr West, we do need to drill 2 benches to frac through that extra pressure, which acts as a frac barrier or a frac baffle. And there is more oil saturation and pressure down there. So again, there is more to recover. So you need 2 benches as well, but you need that to get through that extra frac barrier. This is the basis for our elevator frac, you may have heard. So let's move on to the next slide. So elevator fracs. You could say easy for you to say, right? Well, here's a little bit of data to kind of show you that this slide confirms these fracs are behaving as advertised and efficiently draining this stack. So this is an example of micro seismic that shows the sound of the frac. And it's showing on the left, 2 horizontal wells and a frac stage from each of the -- 1 frac stage from each of those wells and looking at it from the side, and what we're showing here is we've color coded the timing of each of different times of frac. So the early fracs are in red, the middle of that frac stages are in green and yellow, and the latest part are in blues and pinks. So really what this shows is this frac gradually grows from bottom to top. It doesn't grow down. It grows up, stops at the top. Again, very efficiently. This is behaving extremely well. Over to the right, we see the same 2 fracs, the same 2 frac stages and the same 2 horizontals. They're looking from above now, and we can see these things are behaving extremely well. The lateral containment shows minimal interference between the 2 wells, and it's confirming we're fracking, draining this land and with the right spacing and the right landing zone, essentially, we're fracking the stack effectively. So with the knowledge of this massive resource base and the subtle changes in geology and pressure that drive the productivity here, I want to talk about opportunities for development we see in each subregion on our land base. So first off, just orient ourselves. The green boxes here are pads with modern fracs, modern completions, modern drilling, landing zones close enough to it that it feeds our reservoir modeling and our type well creation. So I like to think of these as known points. So I just want to highlight that this resource, this asset is sort of ideally situated is that you have known points dispersed across the land base evenly, but abundant running room. So you have known points to understand productivity, predict it, be comfortable, but lots of room to run, right? It's nearly ideal. So in Gold Creek, we'll start there. Really, the plan is fairly straightforward. It's about continuing the one bench drilling across our lands that we got from Spartan Delta and continuing that across our newly acquired Hammerhead lands, where the default 8 -- 10 to 11 wells per section, 2 bench drilling was being done. We think we can do a better job with our one bench drilling there. And the rock only gets slightly better and slightly more pressures go in that direction. So really just sticking to the plan in Gold Creek. In Gold Creek West, we're elated with the new results that we have there. We've followed up our original drills there, and Katie Anne is going to get into those results. Those rates are looking great. That's at 5 wells per section. Next step for us there is testing downspace wells. So again, fairly straightforward plan there. Next, I want to just show you a little more detail on Karr West and Karr East. So Karr West is our highest oil in place area. There's 200 meters in net pay. It's fairly straightforward here, too, really. It's just execute on the plan of 8 wells per section in 2 benches versus the prior 10 to 11 wells, 2 bench drilling. We want to optimize landing zones and really just taking some of the work that's been done by offset producers. Katie Anne is going to show you some recent results we've seen and also the expected improvement from our plan. So while I'm on Karr West, I want to highlight another way we're unlocking value here. And that's being in it for the long haul. We're investing -- we've invested in 3D seismic data across our land base. This provides us with the regional understanding we need for long-term planning here. So how can this help? Well, an example of that, on the bottom, you see a diagram here of the 5 of the 11 pad, where the previous operator drilled across a localized fault without owning the seismic, without seeing the seismic, resulting in unnecessary complications during our drilling and completions operations, or during their drilling and completions operations. So these are types of situations with a little bit of long-term planning, we will avoid and provide better results in the future. So this is just another example of how assets like these are better in our hands. So Karr East, with the recent results that as mentioned in Gold Creek West, confirming repeatability, those amazing rates. I think we know about Gold Creek West now. Karr East is now, in my opinion, our most underestimated area. There's a lot of potential here. In the south, you see 2 green pads there that would have modern fracs, so the highlight for me in that is there's 3 wells on those pads that will do 1 million barrels of oil in their lifetime. They're huge wells. They're also at 5 wells per section much like Gold Creek West. So the next step in the south part of Gold Creek here is to go drill tighter spacing as well. So again, easy recipe. In the north, I highlight Karr East. We have questions on that, you don't have any of the modern pads there. Well, if you look at -- if you a little bit deeper dive into it, all of those wells in that area were drilled prior to 2017 for land retention purposes before the advent of modern fracking and understanding geomechanics for the landing zone here. So there's an easy win to improve results. And I think the only missing ingredient is Crescent Point's operation team. So when we get here, we will drill them twice as long. They need to be drilled longer. We'll frac 3x bigger as far as tonnage with 7x more fluid and land the wells where they need to be land actually hit the target. Again, this was done a long time ago. We can hit the target here. These are all easy wins. And the resource we see here, tells me we'll have significant outperformance. This reminds me of last year, we talked about the geology in one of our areas in called Fox Creek in Kaybob. And Justin is going to show you an example there where we had the geology showing that we should get some great wells there and predecessor wells were less encouraging with older technology. Well, we've since gone in there, and as Justin will show you, we have some notable [ performers ] now in that area. So kind of backing up the best rock, get the best results. And I expect nothing but the same from Karr East. So before I hand things off to Katie Anne, we'll finish off with a graph from McDaniel associates. And it's a simple graph of production rates versus cumulative oil produced. And looking back kind of coming full circle on our inventory search. When we saw this kind of a graph in an area, we are extremely excited. When you see productivity increasing year-over-year for a long term, that tells you it's a good area. That's a hallmark of a good area. So I can't say any different now. You just don't see this anymore, and I'm pumped to get at these lands. Why am I excited? Well, we kind of have -- we have the trifecta here. We have the productivity to drive great economics. We have the inventory to sustain the company for more than 2 decades, and we have the proven expertise to execute. We truly have completed this portfolio transformation by never straying from the strategy we set 5 years ago. We love this land, we're moving in the future with a coveted asset base, and it puts us in rarefied air. Now it's time to do what we do best, which is take an asset and make it better. So with that, I'll say thanks for your time. I look forward to giving you a Montney update in the future.
Katie Anne MacInnis
executiveGood morning, everyone. Thanks, Mike. I'm Katie Anne MacInnis, the Vice President of Engineering here at Crescent Point. Mike showed you the high-quality position of our Montney assets an oil-rich portion of the fairway. We've had industry-leading results to date, and we're really excited about the opportunity to make these even better. We're making a lot of money in the Montney. And in our mid- and long-range plans, we're going to be continuing to do so. As our production grows, so will our free cash flow that we'll be using to pay down debt and returning to shareholders. In my 15 years working in the Montney, we've always referred to it as the play that keeps on giving. What's really exciting is that this opportunity hasn't yet baked in all of the opportunities that we see for this play. Over the next few minutes, I'm going to walk you through a high-level overview of the economics of the Montney, and then I'm going to take you through our 4 Montney properties showcasing recent results and the opportunities to make them better. I'll then wrap things up with how we'll be driving efficiencies and costs across the company. Through our 2 acquisitions, we now have a very enviable large and contiguous land position in this play. Prior to us assembling this position, it was in the hands of 2 operators and just prior to that, 3 operators. And they logistically were not able to develop this in the same way that we are and realize the same efficiencies that we are. We have great data and technical understanding of this land from past drilling, and there's a lot of great inventory remaining still. All of our type wells pay out in 13 months or less, which gives us high confidence to be running 3 rigs flat through here throughout our 5-year plan. So we're set up for success. And often may knock against the Montney is that it can be extremely sensitive to the price of natural [ gas ], looking at its returns. But with our Montney inventory being entirely in the liquids-rich portion of the reservoir, this is not the case for us. At $2 gas, it would take a WTI price of about $39 for us to not breakeven. At $3.35, gas could be as low as $31 for us to not pay out. We use some of the least sensitive to natural gas price inventory in the entire Montney, and it would take the very unlikely scenario of both low gas and low WTI prices for us to not make money here. I'll guide you now to the orange star on the map to your left. This is the well in Gold Creek West, the most northwestern part of our land basin. This well came on at almost 2,000 BOE per day last year, and it was the top oil well in the entire Alberta Montney Basin. Say that again, it was the top well in the entire Alberta Montney Oil Basin. And I'll show you in a few minutes that it was 30% better than even the next best well in this fairway. You can see on the top orange line on the production plot to the right, its performance. And then this well backed up by further great development in this area last year in pads 2 and 3 resulted in us increasing our type well in Gold Creek West for future drilling here. And this isn't just an isolated sweet spot. We've returned to this area as seen by the star in #4 with 4 new wells recently. These wells currently are on flowback and producing about the same oil rates as the top well produced last year. Moving east along the northern boundary of our acreage is Gold Creek. We've been developing this area as per the Crescent Point optimized style that Mike just mentioned, that is in a single bench about 7 wells per section with 3-ton per meter fracs, and we're getting some really great oil wells. Pads 2 and 3 and the map to the left, we developed this way. And you can see their production of the plot to the right is in line with expectations and giving us initial oil rates of about 1,100 to 1,300 BOE per day. In contrast, prior operator in Gold Creek was developing their lens with higher density and with smaller fracs. Pad #1 in the green star on the left on the map was developed this way. And you can see its production on the production plot is much less. Pads developed in Gold Creek, the prior operator style have half the net present value per section as our optimized design. Like we did with the Duvernay asset, this is the type of optimization we're really excited to be bringing to our new lands. We'll be getting the highest returns possible from this great Montney rock that we have. Using the latest in post-fracture reservoir modeling, we're able to see that the Crescent Point optimized style of developing Gold Creek in the single bench, wider-spaced larger fracs, is as effectively drilling the oil and gas in place as the prior operator's design as seen above it, but we're doing it with 3 less wells per section. Simply put, we're going to be more profitable and efficient than prior operators of this acreage. In Karr West, there's been some fantastic well results to date, and we're excited to be able to make them even better. Looking at the map on the left, the prior operator drilled some really strong wells here in 2023, seen with the green star and #1 on the left. But as we look just west of our land position, another Montney peer producer has been drilling wells in similar rock, but they've been landing them lower and drilling about 2 less wells per section. We plan on following suit with this design with our first wells in this area this year, and we look forward to reporting back to you later in the back half of 2024 with some results with higher profitability. Moving down the map to the Southwest corner of our lands, I'll draw your attention to the pad in purple. This is a pad that was flowed back -- started to flow back just prior to our acquisition in December. This is the pad that Mike mentioned had encountered a fault when it was drilled without seismic. With our extensive seismic coverage, we have more and better data to make better drilling decisions in this part of Karr. Admittedly, it's still early days, but 2 wells on this pad have flowed back at about 1,400 BOE per day, and they are the top 2 oil wells in the Alberta Montney in January. Further to this, just north of here, we're flowing back another new pad in this part of Karr, and we're seeing some initial really encouraging rates of about 1,300 BOE per day, which is just continuing to build our confidence that these are really great lands and our development here is going to add a lot of value. Rounding out our land position in the southeast corner is Karr East. This acreage has the highest liquids weighting of our entire Montney position at about 70%. This is a lot of liquids for the Montney. To date, our well results have been really strong and in line with expectations. And as Mike said, we're looking at ways to optimize this by potentially doing some downspacing with our further development here. One year ago at our Analyst Day, we spoke about the confidence we have to deliver efficiencies in the Duvernay, and Justin will show you coming up that we've delivered on that. We are confident we can take the same approach and deliver the same results in the Montney. As just with the Duvernay, we're going to drill better wells with higher production, and we're going to do it more efficiently. The efficiencies in the Montney are driving down costs across the company. We're seeing lower corporate OpEx, royalties, G&A, and we have improved capital efficiency. All leading to more money for Craig and Ken to distribute. As I said earlier, we had the best Montney oil well in Alberta last year. In fact, Crescent Point Montney wells as seen in the dark orange in the plot here, dominated the top oil wells of the Alberta Montney in 2023. We had 25 of the top 30 oil wells in the Alberta Montney last year. And if you layer in the Crescent Point Duvernay wells of 2023, as seen in light orange, they're just as good as our Montney wells. This is a function of the great creativity and discipline of our geo, engineering, operations, drilling and completions teams working together to maximize the amount of oil, we can pull from these wells and maximizing our amount of cash flow. With the work we have underway across the Montney, we look forward to continuing to dominate these top well reports through 2024. I'll now turn it over to Justin, who will show you that we have the infrastructure to execute on our plans in the Montney and to get our products to market for the best price. Thank you.
Justin Foraie
executiveThanks, Katie Anne, and great job by Katie Anne and Mike describing the opportunity we see in our Montney assets and the excitement we have to execute on our plan there. They're amazing assets. And in addition to the quality asset base that we acquired, we also acquired a great infield infrastructure position with contracted egress for our products. And the egress position only gets better as more pipeline access to the West Coast opens up for both oil and gas over the next few years. Similar to the Duvernay, our Montney acreage is well positioned and well contracted to access major liquids and gas egress pipelines. And as you can see, geographically, our assets sit right on top of major egress lines. Our Montney oil is transported to Edmonton and our Duvernay condensate to Namao on the Pembina Peace pipeline systems, where they're sold into these markets. Our gas is transported on the Alliance and NGTL pipelines through Alberta and onwards to markets throughout North America. Similarly, we have the major infield gathering infrastructure in place and the gas processing contracted to support our short-term growth forecasts. Our infrastructure includes 11 oil batteries, where the oil is separated from the other wellbore fluids and transported to sales. The gas reenters the pipeline system to be processed at a local gas plant. And we have access to 5 gas plants in the area, where the sales gas is separated from the NGLs and routed on the NGTL and Alliance lines. The NGLs are sent off to Edmonton for fractionation and sales. By allocating around 10% of our annual area CapEx spend on small gathering and processing expansions, we can support our long-term 5- and 10-year growth plans. And just for context, a 10% spend in the Montney is in line with our corporate facility spend and in line with peer facility spending in the area of 10% to 20% of their capital budgets for fresh water, which is a topical discussion point as we make our way into spring this year. But in we're in a very strong position in the Montney when it comes to water for both our 2024 operations and as we look out into the longer term. At the core of our water management plan are our long-term diversion licenses, and we support those long-term licenses with our water storage pits, which are currently 2/3 full and the use of produced water for fracking in certain areas that we operate. Leveraging these water assets alongside proper planning, will have access to the water we need to execute our plan in the Montney. So between Mike, Katie Anne and myself, that wraps up our Montney specific portion of our presentation. Collectively, as a company, we have a great understanding of the rock we acquired. We have a great plan on how we're going to get oil out of the ground more effectively and more efficiently. And once we get it to surface, we have the infrastructure and egress in place to get it to sales. Now let's quick focus on our products and how we're set up to take advantage of the evolving egress situation in Western Canada. 65% of our production is liquids weighted, and we produce around 110,000 barrels of oil per day, of which 85% is light oil and condensate that trade at a narrow discount to WTI. With continued oil sands growth, we'll continue to see high demand for our Alberta condensate, which is used as a diluent, and the egress situation for both oil and gas is about to change in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin. What has been weakness for Canada over the past 15 years will soon start to strengthen with the start-up of TMX and West Coast LNG, which will improve our product pricing. Our products are in demand and local, major North American and international markets. And we have the in-house expertise and understanding to market our products in those areas to optimize our pricing. For our gas, our gas is not isolated to AECO or Canadian pricing with only around 20% exposure to these markets through 2025. We're well diversified to a number of key North American markets through both our long-term physical and financial contracts. With over 8 Bcf of LNG coming on between 2024 or through '24 and 2025, having this North American exposure will benefit our realized pricing. Looking a little further into the future, we'll have direct exposure to LNG of 150 million cubic feet per day through the Ksi Lisims LNG project, which is expected to be online by the end of the decade. To wrap it up, we have the gathering, processing and egress capacity to support both our 5- and 10-year plans. And we have the access and expertise to diversify our sales and take advantage of pricing in both major North American and international markets. Moving on to the Duvernay. And like Mike pointed out in his screening and ranking slide earlier, the acquisition of our Kaybob Duvernay asset was the first step for us to create a more sustainable company with top quartile drilling inventory returns. And since entering the play, we've been able to consistently execute and optimize drilling and completion plan that has delivered well results that have outperformed expectations, while delineating our acreage [ access ] -- our acreage position. Over the next few slides, I'm excited to show you how this asset continues to deliver exceptional results and how it's a cornerstone to our organic growth plan in our 5-year plan. But first, looking back at last year's Analyst Day, we were able to show you that the Kaybob Duvernay is a condensate-rich basin, where liquids production is the main driver of the well economics, and how quickly inefficiency our technical teams and field staff were able to execute on an improved plan. We're past -- and able to execute on a plan and accomplish results better than the previous operators in this area. Over the past year, our excitement and confidence in this play has continued to grow. And as a result, we've added a second rig into our drilling operations. And we're not the only ones that have increased our focus on the Duvernay. In Q1 2024, the basin now has a total of 10 drilling rigs, which is up 3 drilling rigs year-over-year and 7 drilling rigs since we entered the play in 2021. Deservedly, capital allocation to the basin is increasing, backed by excellent repeatable well results from other -- from all operators. Now let's talk about our 5 -- how the Duvernay fits into our 5-year plan. We have over 500 premium drilling locations in Kaybob and with a consistent 2-rig drilling program that focuses on the volatile oil and liquids-rich windows, we'll drill 200 wells at around 20 wells per rig per year. Allocating around 35% of our corporate annual CapEx to the Duvernay are around $500 million per year. We'll grow production at a 10% CAGR, or up 50% from 50,000 BOE per day in 2024 to 75,000 BOE per day in 2028. Seeing this 5-year plan through will generate $1.9 billion of asset level excess cash flow through this plan. Similar to the Montney area, we acquired this asset with a plan. And I want to remind everyone of the 3 things we identified in the Duvernay and how our execution of a different well design and development plan compared to the past operator would improve both our recovery and returns. Number one, we widened the well spacing in each of the phase windows to allow each wellbore, a larger area to recover oil from. Number two, we improved the wellbore targeting, drilling wells deeper in zone with longer lateral lengths to maximize both the amount of reservoir that each wellbore contacted and the capital efficiency of the wells. Number three, we frac the wells with more stages, more perforations and at higher sand and water intensities to create a more complex fracture network. And here's the example that Mike was referring to earlier in the presentation. And last year, I showed you a similar performance plot in our volatile oil acreage in Tony Creek, where we were able to improve production performance compared to an offsetting pad by the prior operator by 30%. This year, we stepped out to the east with 2 new pads in the Fox Creek area. The -- sorry, yes, the Fox Creek area, the volatile oil window. They're shown by pads 1 and 2 on the map, and we executed our improved well design and development plan that I described in the last slide, and again, we were able to increase production relative to our predecessors by over 70% and 90% in the first 2 to 5 months of production. Our new drilling and completion design continues to accelerate payouts, increase value and improve recovery versus the older designs, which allows us to generate free cash flow more quickly and book larger EURs and NPVs per well. Applying our expertise and experience from past deep horizontal multi-well resource place alongside sophisticated fracture modeling and reservoir depletion software, we're able to better understand and predict how our wells will behave before we deploy capital to develop our assets. And what you see on this slide are some of the data inputs and software outputs that both quantitatively and qualitatively model our design changes. We put in the time and effort to get a holistic view of what the data is telling us. And using this approach has led to the consistency and repeatability we've seen in our well results since we entered the play in 2021. On the operations side of things, we continue to become more efficient year-over-year. And by pushing the development of our acreage with longer laterals, we improved both our per well drilling and completion efficiency as well as the amount of condensate that we recover from every well. In 2023, we were able to start stepping out further east in the volatile oil window and further south in the liquids-rich window. These results continue to add to our confidence in our type well estimates that we have for these areas. In 2024, we plan to step out further east and west in the volatile oil window and further south in the liquids-rich window to continue to delineate our acreage position. Most recently, on the most eastern -- our most eastern volatile oil acreage, which is shown by pad 6 on the map, we were able to achieve average flow back rates of over 1,500 BOE per day at 75% liquids. And on some wells, over 2,000 barrels a day at 75% liquids, again, demonstrating the breadth and quality of our acreage position. With the focus of the 200 Duvernay wells in our 5-year plan being in the liquids-rich window and the volatile oil window, these wells will pay out in less than 10 months, generate IRRs in excess of 100% and generate around $15 million of NPV per well at $70 WTI. Alongside these wells having strong economics at $70 WTI, they have low $30 to $40 per barrel WTI breakeven prices at both mid-cycle and low gas price scenarios. Being high-rate, high-volume condensate wells, our breakevens are not overly sensitive to lower gas prices. For water, like the Montney, we're in a great position to execute in 2024 and throughout our long-term plan. Again, at the foundation of our water management plan are our long-term diversion licenses. Supporting these long-term diversion licenses are water storage pits, which again are around 2/3 full, an agreement or our agreement with the town of Fox Creek to use recycled water and our water source wells in the area. We have the water assets in place, and we have -- and alongside proper planning, again, we'll have access to the water that we need to execute our plan in the Duvernay. We found exactly what we were looking for in the Kaybob Duvernay, which has proven to be a top-tier North American asset. The new momentum of the play continues to build as the basin activity increases and more results are released. For us, this asset by the end of the year will have generated $1.35 billion of excess cash flow paying out the cost of the acquisitions to acquire our position in less 4 years, while still having $4.4 billion of reserve value booked at year-end 2023. And of the 525 locations that we've identified, we still have over 300 locations left to book, which provides an excellent runway for future reserve additions and NAV growth. Next, Ryan will show us what's new and exciting in our Saskatchewan assets.
Ryan Chad Raymond Gritzfeldt
executiveAll right. Thank you, Justin. For those of you that don't know me, my name is Ryan Gritzfeldt, I'm our Chief Operating Officer. And I will be giving a brief update on our Saskatchewan operations that we actually don't talk a lot about anymore. I guess you can understand why with our new exciting portfolio, all the positive momentum we have in our Duvernay and now Montney operations that Katie Anne, Mike and Justin just spoke to. But we are getting great results in our Saskatchewan assets also. As Shelly introduced, they are long-cycle assets in our portfolio. So I thought I could give a little bit of color on those long-cycle assets, the waterflood projects that mitigate declines and help generate that long-term excess cash flow and also on our open hole multi-laterals that have really pushed the economic boundaries of certain plays and increase the drilling inventory. All right. First, the 5-year outlook for our Saskatchewan assets. So you can see they stay roughly at around 50,000 BOE a day, which is just over 1/4 of our corporate production this year. Going to 19% of our corporate production in 2028. That's as we grow our production in the Montney and Duvernay. We spend just over $250 million in capital annually, which is just under 20% of our corporate capital. That's a pretty consistent 3-rig drilling activity, drilling just over 85 wells a year and includes $50 million annually in waterflood projects, polymer flood projects. And it's all the past investment in the waterfloods that now have our Saskatchewan assets as a whole producing at a very low attractive base decline rate of only 15%. And so it's that low decline, high netback nature of these assets that provide over half of our corporate excess cash flow in 2024, and that goes to 23% in the back half of our 5-year plan as we grow our excess cash flow in the Duvernay and the Montney. So a significant excess cash flow generating asset that helps fund that the shareholder returns and reinvestment into our growth assets. Okay. So on to the progression of our waterfloods. So this map shows our largest waterflood, the Viewfield Bakken waterflood units, which is actually over 200 net sections. So that's 5.5 townships of resource being waterflooded. And if you step back for just a second, waterflooding tight oil with multistage fractured horizontal producers and injectors. When we first started this back in 2010, there were a lot of naysayers, not many thought it would work. In fact, even our independent reserve evaluators were quite skeptical at first. There were no analogous plays being waterflooded like this, quite frankly, in the world. And -- but we knew that we had the technical and operational expertise. We knew we had favorable reservoir characteristics, a relatively shallow nature of the reservoir favorable viscosity mobility ratio. So we knew we had to give it a shot because just a small increase in recovery factor over this much resource in place would lead to a pretty significant long-term value. And so fast forward 15 years, here we are. So this map, what we wanted to show here is how we have grown our oil production under waterflood over time, which mitigates declines. So -- and how you do this is by converting wells to injection, repressurizing the reservoir, increasing your cumulative voidage recovery ratio, VRR. So long story short, VRR the concept is a ratio of how much water you reinject back into the reservoir versus how much production oil, water, gas you produced out of the reservoir. And rule of thumb is you need 2/3 voidage or 67% to get an effective waterflood response, which increases or flattens oil production and mitigates declines. So what does all this mean? So back in 2010, when we started waterflooding, you look at 2018, we had over 200 water injectors in the play, over 69 sections. Our cume VRR was still low. We only had a handful of dark blue sections, which signifies the sections that got to that target VRR. But we were still repressurizing the reservoir, still had 4,600 barrels a day producing at a low 5% to 10% base decline. Fast forward to the end of last year, we now have 570 injectors in the play, over 174 sections, a lot more dark blue sections that have hit that cume VRR target. And so I think the key takeaway is we now have 8,300 barrels a day of oil production, producing at a very low 5% to 10% base decline. And so in our 5-year plan, we'll continue to convert wells to injection continue to repressurize the reservoir, continue to increase that VRR and mitigate declines further. And just to drive home the point a little bit more and how it is important to continue to increase that VRR. So here's 2 sections, 1 section with an effective waterflood response, another section only a mile away, still waiting for that reservoir or that waterflood response. So the top section, we started water flooding back in 2012. You can see it hit that VRR target in 2016, got that bump in oil production flattened out and now producing at a waterflood response decline. Whereas the section on the bottom, didn't start injecting until 2019, hasn't hit that cume VRR response, and so hasn't seen that bump in oil production. So you have a section with an effective waterflood response producing 100 barrels a day from 4 wells versus a section that's still waiting for that waterflood response producing only half of the oil rate or less than 50 barrels a day. So that's the Viewfield Bakken waterflood. But if you put all of our Saskatchewan assets under waterflood together, it's about -- it's over 22,000 barrels a day of oil, which is actually 20% of our corporate oil production. If you include gas and liquids on that, it's over 27,000 barrels a day, or BOE a day. And that production base declines at only 5% to 10%. And in our 5-year plan, we're going to hold that production base flat by spending only $50 million a year. That's 3% to 4% of our corporate capital on waterflood projects, on polymer flood projects. And so the significance of that, I had said that our Saskatchewan assets as a whole are producing over half of our corporate excess cash flow this year. These waterflood assets alone, at $70 WTI, will generate $350 million of asset level excess cash flow, which is about 30% of our corporate asset level excess cash flow. So hopefully, that sheds some light on the role that these long-cycle assets play in our portfolio. They're now over 15% of our corporate 2P reserves. And the economics, I mean, they're not the quick payouts, high IRRs as our Montney and Duvernay drilling gets that Mike, Katie Anne and Justin just walked through. But super strong PI ratios, low F&D costs, obviously, with a relatively low capital required to add those long-term reserves that generates that long-term excess cash flow. Okay. On to open hole multi-laterals. So these are wells that have 8 legs, spaced 50 meters apart, and each leg is 2 miles long. So you do the math on that. That's 25,000 meters of lateral in the reservoir. And like I said earlier, specifically in the Viewfield Bakken, these have really pushed the economic boundaries of the play and increased our drilling inventory life. The cartoon on the right actually shows that the Northeast part of the Viewfield Bakken, where the Bakken reservoir thins a little bit, we kind of lose that frac barrier between the Bakken reservoir and the Lodgepole above, which is water bearing. So we have some old wells that we did frac up into the Lodgepole, obviously produced at high water cuts, watered out too soon. But now with the new open-hole multi-lateral technology, you produce the wells. They don't need to be fracked. So they produce oil very economically without bringing in that water from the Lodgepole. So when you look now at development over a 2-section basis, the old method, you would drill 8 single mile wells frac versus now four 2-mile open hole multi-laterals. You're basically spending less capital and almost getting double the reserves recovery at far superior economics, which actually should get even better with a more favorable royalty incentive that I believe we're going to see with the Saskatchewan budget announcement to date. These economics are based on the McDaniel 150,000 barrel oil type well, and we've gotten results better. So we're talking under a year payout with IRRs at over 100%. I thought I'd close just with the map of that Northeast part of the Viewfield Bakken. So we've drilled 12 open hole multi-laterals to date, ranging between 1 and 2 miles. The green stars are the 2-mile open hole multi-laterals that we show production for on the right, now exceeding that McDaniel 150,000 barrel oil type well. And yes, the exciting thing for us is we've identified 130 of these locations. And similarly to the Kaybob inventory and the Montney inventory that we just spoke to, only 25% of those are booked. So this technology has increased the drilling inventory life even further of this play and allowing for future reserves and NAV growth for the area. So with that, I'll turn it over to Ken.
Kenneth Lamont
executiveGood morning. My name is Ken Lamont, and I'm the Chief Financial Officer. And this morning, I'll be taking us through our corporate portfolio and our financial outlook. So let's just first start with our corporate inventory. As you can see by the graphic, we've identified 6,000 locations within our corporate inventory. These locations have been highly vetted by our technical teams, and that's a collaboration between our land, our engineering and our geology. We consider 4,000 locations of this 6,000 to be premium. So other than the fact that they're well-established and delineated locations, premium inventory is where the payback at a mid-cycle pricing is 2 years or less. As you can see on the left-hand side, in our 10-year plan, we drill around 2,000 locations that represents only 50% of premium locations, or about a 1/3 of our total inventory locations. Over on the right-hand side, you'll see our economics. That's run at our long-term planning price of $70 flat. And you can see the very compelling economics across our different core areas obviously, led by the Alberta Montney and Duvernay, as we spoke extensively this morning, being a payback of between under 1 year to 1 year on average and our Saskatchewan assets, which have a payback of sub-1 year to just around 2 years. Obviously, very compelling rates of returns across our portfolio. So let's dive into a little bit on our inventory and our 5-year plan by area. So the first thing I'm going to point out is that in our capital allocation, in our 5-year plan, we're allocating capital across all our core areas as depicted by the drilling there in each of those areas. What I'll point out is with respect to this capital allocation, it's very similar to what you see in our 2024 budget and that 80% of our capital is going towards the Kaybob Montney and Alberta -- or sorry, Kaybob Duvernay and Alberta Montney, and 20% of our capital is going towards Saskatchewan. This is true for 2024, and this is consistent through our 5-year plan. So what does that mean? In Kaybob Duvernay, we're going to be running a 2-rig program in our 5-year plan, drilling just over 200 wells of our 523 premium locations. In the Alberta Montney, we're going to have a 3-rig program drilling around 300 wells of our over 1,400 premium locations. And in Saskatchewan, this averages around a 3-rig program drilling about 450 of our total 2,000 premium locations. A couple of points that I would like to make on this slide is if you notice the drilling in each of our core areas fits comfortably within the booked inventory in each of those areas, respectively. The other thing that I'd like to point out is look at the size of the unbooked inventory across each of our major areas. That unbooked inventory gives us a tremendous potential to book reserves as we move through and drill up in our 5-year plan. The magnitude of this unbooked potential could exceed our 1.2 billion 2P barrels we have booked at the end of 2023. So a very [indiscernible] amount thereof unbooked potential. So let's now jump in a little bit to the 5-year plan. A year ago, we were very proud to bring forward a refreshed 5-year plan. You can see that plan depicted in the dashed blue line for production and the later orange line for excess cash flow generation. Our 2023 Analyst Day plan had us growing at a 3% -- our production was growing at a 3% cumulative average growth rate. We are going to grow corporately to 155,000 barrels a day, and in addition, we were also growing our excess cash flow per share at a 2% CAGR. This was all backed by 12 years of premium drilling inventory. Fast forward to today, we've obviously gone through further transformation within our portfolio in 2023, bringing into Alberta Montney acquisitions and disposing of North Dakota. This has had a tremendous positive impact on our 12-year plan, our 5-year plan. If you look at our current 5-year plan, we're now growing from 202,000 barrels a day to 260,000 barrels a day. But more on this -- so that's a 6% production CAGR. But more importantly, we're going to grow our excess cash flow per share at a 10% CAGR. You can also see that our current 5-year plan is backstopped by 20 years of premium drilling inventory. A couple of other highlights of our current plan, you'll see our reinvestment ratio. We're currently sitting around a 60% reinvestment ratio. But as we move through our 5-year plan, that's driving down to 53%, all while our decline rate stays consistent in that 30% to just sub-30% range. One other thing is at $70 flat price deck, our 5-year plan will generate $4.7 billion of cumulative excess cash flow, and that's on an after-tax basis. That represents around 75% of our current market cap today or about $7.50 per share. So tremendous potential in our free cash flow generation. One question that I feel coming here, and I'll address right now is with respect to our 5-year plan, why the 6% growth? And the short answer to that is it's directly on our strategy. Craig is going to come up and talk a lot about the detailed elements of our strategy next. But what I will say is when we sought to rebuild our portfolio, we wanted to build a company that had the potential to grow 3% to 5% consistently year-over-year for the long term. And I'm happy to report that both with our 5-year plan and our 10-year plan, and our growth rate at 6%, we're at the high end of that range. So we've met our strategic target. The other comment that I'll make about the growth rate is it does represent a natural cadence and a responsible development within our asset base. And what I mean there is 3 rigs running in the Montney, 2 rigs in the Duvernay with 3 rigs in Saskatchewan is a very manageable pace of year-round drilling. It also allows for an efficiency of the number of frac crews that we've got to bring in behind to complete those wells. Further, within our 5-year plan, it's been designed and our growth rate can accommodate that we don't overload any area infrastructure. We do have the adequate takeaway for all our commodities within our plan. So said another way, our 6% growth is really an output as opposed to an input and obviously meets our strategic objective of meaningful growth sustainable for the long term. So now we're talking about our 5-year plan. We've got a very compelling organic production growth profile. We've got a very compelling excess cash flow growth profile. So what are the risks? So I'd like to make a few comments here just to demonstrate how highly confident we are in delivering our 5-year plan. Some of this include our 5-year plan drilling is well within not only our premium type well inventory, but also in our booked type well inventory. I mentioned before the pace of the rigs. We have a very consistent rig activity throughout our 5-year plan. As Katie Anne and Justin had mentioned in their areas, we also have current results coming in both the Montney and the Duvernay that are meeting or exceeding our book-to type wells. We also talked a lot about cost improvement and efficiency improvements moving from sliding sleeve to plug and perf, further down spacing, cost reductions for less days, rig days on the lease. All these potential future efficiencies are not booked right now within our current 5-year plan. I'll also mention, too, that we do have the egress and the takeaway for all the liquids and all the gas production associated with our 5-year plan, and we have no major infrastructure spending or major infrastructure hurdles in front of us. The other thing is where we don't have direct offsetting production, we've got industry drilling around our lands. And obviously, that does give us a tremendous amount of confidence in some of those step-out locations with that production in the area. A prime example of that would be in our Simonette in the Duvernay. We've got a lot of industry drilling around that, and we're doing step-out locations later this year. All right. So let's talk a little bit about rates of return inherent in our 5-year plan. So when we set out our plan and did the capital allocation associated with this current one, we were using a $70 flat price deck. So that's what it was based on. You can see at $70, we've obviously got very attractive half-cycle and full-cycle total returns with that drilling program. One thing I do want to make a comment about within our capital allocation framework is it is absolutely returns based, and that's obviously being generated by an 80% allocation towards our highly economic Duvernay and Montney positions. But don't forget, our allocation does put a significant amount to long-term initiatives and environmental initiatives. And that allocation of capital to those other longer-term and environmental initiatives is included within this 5-year plan. This is a fully big capital program as we would develop it year-over-year. The other thing I really like about this graphic is the fact that although this was based at $70, we're able to shock our oil price assumption down $20 to a $50 price environment. You can still see the good returns that are being generated even at that lower commodity price. That's obviously a testament to the depth and the quality of the inventory that we have within our 5-year plan, but it also is an indication of the profitability that we have as a company at lower commodity prices. And this is obviously before we did any reallocation of capital for the lower commodity environment or assuming any kind of cost reductions. So tremendous ability to generate profits even at a lower commodity deck. So we talked a lot about our 5-year plan. And one of the things that really excite us the most here is that the next 5 years beyond our 5-year plan look identical. We go on a similar production growth trajectory. We go on a similar excess cash flow per share growth trajectory. You can see there that within the 5 years, I've talked about growing to 260,000 barrels a day organically. As we roll forward to the 10-year plan, we're growing to 315,000 barrels a day, all organically. You can see a comparison in the bottom of the chart there, of our 5-year plan stacked up against your 10-year plan. And the one thing I really want to highlight with that is just look at the consistency of the numbers between the two programs. Our capital expenditures remain relatively flat. Our reinvestment ratio also remains consistent. Our decline rate remains consistent in that 30% to sub-30% range. At $70 flat WTI, we're going to generate $10.8 billion of after-tax excess cash flow. That's obviously well in excess of our market cap today, and it represents about $17.50 per share, tremendous amount of excess cash flow generation. The last thing I'd like to leave you on this slide is as we roll through and complete our 10-year plan, don't forget. We still have 10 more years of premium drilling inventory to sustain this into the future. All right. So we talked a lot about excess cash flow generation. Now let's talk about returning this capital to our shareholders. On the right-hand side, that's our return of capital framework. I think it's very familiar to most in the room. We've got a very simple framework. It's our funds flow. We subtract off all our corporate expenses to get to an excess cash flow. And when I mean all our corporate expenses, this is not only just our development capital drilling, this is also lease and rent payments. This is everything like abandonment and reclamation activity, so fully baked coming off to get to an excess cash flow. We're currently returning 60% of our excess cash flow in the form of dividends and share repurchases. I would guide you that as you think going forward, any returns in the near future of beyond our base dividend of excess cash flow will be done in the form of share repurchases. So we talked about a strategic priority of ours right now of growing our return of capital to our shareholders. So how are we going to do that? We're going to do that through 2 main ways. The first one is obviously, as we repay debt and strengthen our balance sheet, look for us to revisit our policy of 60% return to our shareholders and be able to increase that. That's obviously the first and easiest way to increase the return of capital to shareholders. The second way is a little bit more hidden. By executing on our 5 and our 10-year plan, we're generating organic growth in our excess cash flow per share. And that growth in the excess cash flow per share is going to lead to more returns to shareholders through time. So obviously a very powerful tool. That also does not include the positive impact as we're buying back our shares, as I mentioned in the return. So again, we think we've got a really positive set up here as far as our returning excess cash, been excited about the future. With that, I'd like to invite Craig to the podium.
Craig Bryksa
executiveWell, thanks, everybody, for attending today. We're going to get into a few things here and strategy is going to be one of them. But you can see why when the technical team and the financial teams walk you through everything that we built and what we've transformed over the last 5 years, I start to get really excited. Knowing this group that I have working alongside me, gives me a lot of comfort in where we're going and where the future leads for Crescent Point, and really that transformation. So you have all witnessed this journey over the last 5 years of this transformation where we moved assets out and we brought things in that fit we're trying to build. And now at the end of the day, Ken shows you a 5-year plan. We talked to you about our 10-year plan. And these are pad level up development plans that we layer in one-by-one as we're going through building this out with our Corporate Planning division as they work through these models. So a lot of comfort and a lot of detail is provided through this. And then when we look at it as not only the executive team and the Board, we absolutely know that we're going to be able to execute on this, especially with the infrastructure that is now in place. At the same time, 6 years now for this team in place. I can tell you, 6 years ago, we couldn't have sat in front of you and told you we had 20 years of inventory. We could have told you we had 7, but we absolutely couldn't have told you we had 20. And right now, with the transformation and how it's taking place, the future hasn't really looked brighter than it does now. But really, this all comes together with corporate strategy. And strategy is something I would have liked to have been talking to everybody about along the way. But obviously, there's things we can't talk to you about when we're going to do it like what we're looking for in a transaction, when we'll do it. Is it oily? Is it gassy? How does it look? So if you step back again, 5 years ago, was really when we started to build in this long-term strategic vision for Crescent Point. And underneath that -- so you'd have an overarching corporate strategy. And underneath that corporate strategy, you have a number of component strategies. So portfolio being one of them that we just spoke to you today. Our business plan, which Ken just ran you through on both the budget, the 5-year plans and the 10-year plans. But there's also other aspects to those component strategies. There's people, there's digital, there's communications, how do these all feed into us corporately. And then at the same time, as we were developing all of these component strategies, we also had to pressure test ourselves and the Board on what I would say are core convictions. Like what do we truly believe? How is the energy industry going to move forward? And how are we going to be part of that? You put those convictions in place and you really test yourself, and you stay disciplined to those as you execute along the way. And then underneath those convictions we have what we would say are guiding principles. Guiding principles are really about how are we going to behave and how we're going to act and what are we going to look at and what do we not and where do we keep that discipline. And ultimately, it's that corporate strategy and are staying disciplined to that and executing through this portfolio transformation along the way that gave us really the foundation to do what we did. Oh, I'm going to back up here. So the one thing I would see in the middle of this slide is our strategy statement, right in the middle of the slide. So that strategy statement was put out. We built into our strategy books 5 years ago, and it hasn't changed. Keep in mind, your strategy always evolves. This statement has been fairly static for us. And there's one line in here I'm going to read for you. It says, "we will maintain a resilient, balanced and sustainable portfolio." We didn't have that. We built that. And this is where we are going. As you're layering out your strategy where are we driving towards and what are we looking for? So for us, we did a detailed analysis of the energy sector on both sides of the border. And there's a common theme among the top quartile performing companies. And that theme is size and scale. They all have that. Sustainability in both their decline rate or their inventory, that is there, and they can generate long-term sustainable returns in order for us to be competitive, we needed to do that. Returns, top quartile economics drive a top quartile business and all those companies had that. And then the other thing they had in common was the balance sheet, a very strong balance sheet. So look for us to continue to optimize our balance sheet going forward as we've put on a little bit of debt here to do that series of deals on the transformations. So you've seen this slide, Shelly had it upfront. It really is a great representation of the transformation that's occurred. And I would argue that dashed line is where we've got an inflection point. So if you think on the left side of that dash line, that's crescent point is they're going through a transformation from 2018 to 2021 -- or sorry, to 2023. Our #1 strategic priority during that time period was absolutely to transform our portfolio. Based on that key criteria that we set, having the technical teams lead first, Mike showed you how we quickly scoped plays, whether it fit with what we were trying to build or didn't. And I'm happy to tell you, going through that entire process, we zeroed into 5 basins is how focused we were. And you saw us move into 2 of those. So the discipline was in the system on where we were looking and why and how it fit and how it didn't. When you look on the right side of this line, this is where we get into the exciting phase. This is our organic growth. So the strategic priority was us for -- to transform our portfolio in the past. Right now our strategic priorities are to operational execution and continue to demonstrate that and pound out quarter after quarter after quarter of numbers. And I think for Crescent Point, that's an absolute bench strength. One of the things that we are very proud of is that we always hit our quarterly numbers, and then ultimately, that drives your annualized numbers. And again, I don't see any of that changing right now. In fact, I see that looking even better as we go. Next strategic priority for us is to optimize our balance sheet. And continue to drive that debt down to a level where we're comfortable. And then as we get there, look for us to our third priority, which is build out our return of capital framework and continue to grow that profile for our shareholders. So right now, as Ken mentioned, 60% of our excess cash flow is returned to our shareholders in the form of base level dividends and share repurchases. But as we get our debt to closer to where we want it to be, look for us to grow that profile so that that share that's going back to our shareholders is even larger. So this is a graph. This is an independent graph. This isn't ours. And ultimately it speaks to our value proposition, which I truly believe is unique when you think of Crescent Point with the growth that we have in the system. So Ken mentioned 6% CAGR on our production, more importantly, 10% CAGR on our excess cash flow per share, and that's how we look at things relative to production. So when you look at this graph, it's a very unique value proposition, and it basically sums up free cash flow yield plus growth in the 5-year plan, again, this is done by independent analysis. When you stack up its 35 companies on here during -- with all their 5-year plans, it puts us in that top decile. And what I really like about this is a couple of things. One, I know that the execution is going to be there with our operations and technical teams. And then two, I think there's going to be upside in this when you think of relative performance within our type curves and how they're booked and what we're seeing here for performance to date, along with the cost structure and being able to drive that down. So ultimately, this number should grow. So we've changed everything within Crescent Point. It's been a significant transformation over the years. And like I mentioned, everything goes into that. So it's your portfolio, it's your management team, it's your Board, it's your corporate culture. Last thing for us to do is change the name. We've got a short video to play. I'm not sure Dave who's going to do that. [Presentation]
Craig Bryksa
executiveSo like I mentioned, the last thing we need to do with our transformation is a bit of a capstone that's changing. Veren stands for -- is Latin for truth is Veritos and En is energy. So truth and energy. It's a great tie to our purpose statement and a great tie to our corporate strategy. So with that, we're going to get into questions. I think we need a couple of minutes to get it set up. So just bear with us here, some of the screens are rolled up, and then we'll -- Ken, Ryan and I will be up here for questions, but we'll absolutely pass them to the team if they've got better answers than I do. So just bear with us.
Craig Bryksa
executiveSo I think what we'll do is we have a bit of time now to run through some questions. We do have a couple of people in the audience. So Tracy's got a mic, she'll gladly hand you. And I think Sean and Gail has one as well. So just put your hand up if you have a question, they'll run over and give you the mic, and then we can get to it. And then the other thing we've got going on today is very similar to our conference calls is Shant is going to be doing some questions through the Internet. We are broadcasting this live on the Internet right now. So I'm sure there'll be a few that come in that way. So if you have a question -- there's a couple.
Dennis Fong
analystDennis Fong, CIBC World Markets. I'd like to start on a topic that, Ken, you mentioned and you also reiterated there, Craig. I wanted to dive a little bit more in terms of how you've risked your type curve. Obviously, you've been outperforming it through time. And what's currently baked into your 5-year and potentially 10-year plan? And where can we see kind of uplift from that?
Craig Bryksa
executiveYes. So I can give you some color, and then I think Ryan is probably the best to talk to that as well. Obviously, the technical teams reporting to Ryan. But when you think of our type curves, obviously, very comfortable with the type curves in the base plan and in the budget. And again, you've seen us execute, Dennis, quarter after quarter. But what we are seeing right now is -- in some of the areas, we're seeing outperformance relative to those type curves. In particular, when you think of -- so we'll talk Montney first. When you think of Gold Creek West, we're certainly seeing some outperformance on those type curves. And as we see that, we see it more and more and more, we slowly move those curves up. One pad doesn't make you shift in the entire curve and entire area. Maybe 2 or 3 or 4 pads as you get smarter as you go that does. So as we get more of that comfort, we'll build in a little bit more of that as we go. And I'm sure the independents will -- as well, too, on who we use their as McDaniel associates. When you look at Gold Creek, there's a lot more wells drilled in that area. There's a lot more wells that are drilled with what Mike had mentioned there are more current landing zones and technology. So we have a lot more comfort in those curves on how they've been coming in. And they're coming in almost on type. And then when you push to the South in Karr east and west, that's where you have a little bit of upside. And again, we'll take that very similar to how we've taken Gold Creek West, where we'll slowly inch those up over time, giving us more comfort as we go. And really, when you think of the Duvernay, that's really a play from what we did in the Duvernay. So think of us now 3 years-ish operating in the Duvernay. We consistently were exceeding our type curves. And as we got smarter and smarter as we drilled more and completed more and have went along, we've slowly move those curves up and in. So the Duvernay is, I want to say, is pretty close to bang on. You can always get better with different technologies and completion styles. But for us, we're very comfortable with how that is. So I do expect certain areas within the Montney to move up, but we will take a measured approach at that as opposed to just jumping. This is the last thing you need is underperformance and in certain areas and how that plays out. So I don't know, Ryan, if there's anything you want to add?
Ryan Chad Raymond Gritzfeldt
executiveI think all I'd add, I can think of 2 quick examples. One Craig mentioned, so Gold Creek West. So we just offset, like Katie Anne said, the best well in 2023 with 4 more wells that look exactly the same. I can tell you we don't have 1,900 BOE a day wells throughout that area in our 5-year plan, like we have the lower type well. And in that area, we still have our inventory at 5 wells a section. We're going to test that 7 wells a section. That could add another 150 net locations there. So that's an area we're super excited about. And if we keep repeating that result, there is upside in Gold Creek West. I'd say the other thing -- the other one I can think about is that pad that Justin showed down to the Southeast in our Duvernay play where flowback is over 1,500 BOE a day. I can tell you we do not have 1,500 BOE a day wells in our 5-year plan scattered all over that land. Of course, as you step out, you have to risk, especially since we went through the older wells that previous operators weren't getting those results. So until we get them, you have to risk them, right? So yes, there is upside sprinkled throughout our areas in our 5-year plan. And I think that's why we're so excited to speak to it.
Craig Bryksa
executiveYes. So that -- it's so much easier to explain surprises to the up than to the down. So that's how we think through things as we're going through budgeting. We'd always rather have that, Dennis.
Dennis Fong
analystMy second and maybe shifting direction a little bit. Over the 5-year and I presume also the 10-year plan, you show a fairly substantial wedge of growth mostly from kind of the shorter cycle Montney and Duvernay assets. Through that plan, is there an inflection point where you see those plays and it's not to say that they don't stand on their own, but requiring less, call it, other play capital or other play cash flow to help contribute to that growth. And can you discuss maybe where you guys see that in either your 5- or your 10-year line?
Craig Bryksa
executiveSo we have a couple of things going on. And it's actually an interesting year for us when you think of it that way, Dennis. So we just made a switch to 2 rigs running in the Duvernay. And it takes you -- as you're well aware, it takes you a little while to build up that production base within the Duvernay to generate that change in excess cash flow based on bringing in a different rig. So we're at a bit of an inflection point and you're going to start to see that over the next, call it, 20 or 12-ish months within the Duvernay. And then the other interesting part is that Montney is on a very similar pace. We just did those series of deals. We picked up where we've got 3 rigs running in there. You're at a bit of an inflection point here over the next 12 months where you get more excess cash flow generation coming from that asset relative to your base level capital, and that's going to occur over the next 12-ish months. And one of the things that's happened for us here in 2024 is when you think of our production -- our capital profile relative to our production profile, we really don't catch up on that excess cash flow generation until the back half of the year with the way we've basically load leveled our capital program. So you don't really start to see that bigger incremental wedge coming from that production until the back half of the year. And just as you're going to be well aware, Dennis, for us, we're saying 190 to 191-ish in Q1 and we grow to 215 in the back half of the year, and then that gives us the 202. So you could see as your production is growing like that, what that does for your excess cash flow wedge and the inflection point you're talking is, call it, over the next to 12-ish to 18 months in those assets.
Shant Madian
executiveMaybe I'll take a question from the webcast. Return to capital related, sort of 2 questions here. First, limited activity in the buyback to date. So maybe just questions around the cadence, just people understanding around the buyback activity. Maybe Ken, you can address that. And then the second, more fulsome, what is potentially that debt target that we think about potentially before increasing that return of capital beyond 60%? And is that something that you think we can get to in the next 1 to 2 years realistically?
Kenneth Lamont
executiveSo on the first one, with respect to the buyback, Craig just actually touched on it. We added a second Duvernay rig last year. So we're spending a little more capital relative to our cash flow here as we go into the first half of this year. So again, this inflection point we speak of is really in 2024, where we're skinning on our excess cash flow in Q1 and Q2. And then we hit that inflection point where our production and our cash flow grow into the back half of the year. Remember, we're talking about 6-month cycle times on these pads. So it does take a little while before that cash flow comes after you invest in the drilling. So that's why you're not seeing us as much on the buybacks here for Q1 and Q2, but then that's obviously going to ramp up as we get to the back end of the year. So been no change to the program. No change in how we're executing under the return of capital. It's just a timing issue. With respect to the return of capital and targets, and I hate that word as it comes to this kind of a thing. But we've told everybody over and over again here since November doing our last deal is we stepped up and took $1.5 billion of debt onto the books here to do the Hammerhead transaction. And so what we're telling everybody is we want to repay that $1.5 billion of debt and bring our debt from $3.7 aggregate billion to $2.2 billion. And the time line we've set out is over the next couple of years. How that's going to happen is 2 primary ways. One of them is obviously the retained excess cash that we'll put against the balance sheet fully. The second way is, as you know, we're undertaking some disposition processes, some minor dispositions within the Saskatchewan properties. Those should help accelerate us to get us down to that $2.2 billion aggregate debt. When we get there, that's when we'll look at our policy in context of everything else going around us, and then we can make decisions on increasing that. So that's really the trigger and how we're thinking about it. Obviously, at 2 years, we're hoping to really accelerate that as much as we can, but it's really dependent upon the disposition market.
Jeremy McCrea
analystJeremy McCrea from BMO Capital Markets. First question is just you have a lot of inventory in the Montney here. What would be a catalyst to get a fourth rig going in that play? And then just a second follow-up question. Every type curve we've seen from different generations just keeps getting better and better and better. What are you seeing on the horizon here that you didn't really want to bring up because it's not mainstream quite yet, but some things that you're looking at here that could improve the well productivity here for next year when we're here.
Ryan Chad Raymond Gritzfeldt
executiveMaybe the first one on like well productivity or maybe I'll actually start on costs. I think that is maybe where we see maybe some of the most upside. I think we're kind of just getting started, right? Like, we talked last year in the Duvernay how we had dropped our costs 20% fairly quickly from the prior operator in the Montney now, I mean we're just getting started. But we were pretty quickly able to, I'd say, utilize our supply chain to lower casing and sand costs. We have a couple of, I'd say, pretty exciting competitive bid processes going on right now for other services. And it takes time that we -- I think we've mentioned, we've brought in a different rig into the Montney, a walking double that is just finding its stride right now. And we're probably drilling on average a couple of days, I would say, faster than previous operators. So those things just take time to actually achieve. On the productivity side, I mean, I guess I kind of spoke to Gold Creek West and some of the Duvernay stuff. I guess the one thing that now we need to see how we do things and to see if that's going to improve results I would say probably like Mike, Justin, Katie Anne, alluded to, the optimized spacing. We think that's just the more capital efficient better way to develop the resource. And then there's all the fine details on fracking. So we're going to use a different fluid system than prior operators. Obviously, our type wells are based on the production history available. So we'll see if we can beat those type curves by doing things the way we're going to do them right. So I think that was the first question, Jeremy...
Craig Bryksa
executiveI can grab the first one. So your question on the cadence of operations in the Montney over the next 5 years. That's why we're a team. The question around that. We -- so Jeremy, obviously, 1,400 wells now in inventory. Ken mentioned where we're at the end of 5 years and where we're at the end of 10 years and a lot of inventory in front of us. And to Ryan's point, there's potential down space. Some of this are tightening up a little bit and maybe that adds some more inventory in a way you go. We like the cadence of operations. We think 6% CAGR on production is a very good, manageable disciplined profile as we move forward. And not only that, it's sustainable, and you can see through our 10-year plans and beyond. And we want to be a long-term sustainable business that is competitive along the way. So we like the cadence of operations. The other thing I'd highlight for you on the cadence is the infrastructure we have and the infrastructure we picked up through Hammerhead works out to be about -- it's 135,000 to 140,000-ish BOE per day of capacity currently. When you look at our 5-year plan, we basically are, for lack of better terms, drilling to filling into that, right? So you're going from where we are today cost, 95,000 BOE per day to that level over the next 5 years, and that starts to get to your capacity levels within your infrastructure. And at that point in time, 5 years out, you're going to have to spend a little bit on a battery here and there and that sort of thing. And Ryan did point out that, hey, we always have a little bit of percentage of our capital or our budget that goes to infrastructure every year, and that's line looping and compression, those types of things. But as you're filling into that capacity, we will beyond your 5/2020, need to add some batteries, not gas plants, that infrastructure is there, but the battery. So look for us to do that. And then the other thing within this 5-year plan with the infrastructure in place is 3 rigs running, you have the ability to move the rigs around the field. And now that it's fully under ours and that the technical teams are running ahead, getting well licensing and the approvals in place so we can have pads built and ready for us to be flexible as we move, you're not overfilling one facility at a certain amount or a certain time, right? So you think that -- that your last question, I'll give you some color on cost. So you think of Gold Creek West, where you just bring on a pad like we brought on and all of a sudden you're pounding that into a battery, it gets pretty full, pretty quick when you've got 4 wells that are very similar to the first well. The other thing I would say with the 6 to 7 pad and when you're looking at it because I know you're going to dig into it, there is 4 wells on that pad. Two of those wells were completed using NCS tools, the sliding sleeps. 2 of those wells were completed using plug and perf systems. We did a full suite of diagnostics on those reservoir diagnostics. I can assure you, cost was not a worry on those pads. We wanted to understand that area from a complete reservoir breakdown. So all the diagnostics that Katie Anne was talking about were done on those pads. Microseismic, we actually were doing a 3D seismic shoot out there at that point in time. So we could leverage that as well into our micro seismic. And then we changed 2 of those to understand plug and perf relative to NCS. And the reason for that is, as you're well aware, and Mike walked you through it, when you think of the pressure gradient through our land position, the eastern side being normal pressure, the western side being higher pressure, the overpressure. We wanted to make sure that we could have success with our plug and perf operations on the normal pressure gradient. And I'm happy to tell you, like Ryan mentioned, those wells are good. So then if you can do that, and we can push that even further to the East, that's a significant cost win alone. So that number just on the change between the jewelry in those 4 wells. So 2 of those wells are about $500,000 to $800,000 less, and that was the plug and perf. So there's advancements in those kind of things that you need to do as well, too. Again, that's why we're a team because one is talking, [ another is ] thinking.
Aaron Bilkoski
analystAaron Bilkoski, TD Securities. I had a question on your balance sheet and your debt repayment strategy. You talked about bringing debt down to $2.2 billion. You touched on potentially Saskatchewan asset sales. On your Q4 conference call, you also talked about potentially selling infrastructure and royalties. I guess my question is, A, could you provide some more color on what you'd be selling? B, do you have a target on how much you could get? I suspect you're not going to answer that. And third, how do you weigh adding sort of long-term fixed financial obligations to your cost structure against paying down debt.
Kenneth Lamont
executiveSure. So maybe I'll try to make sure I cover them and Craig catch me if I miss them. But with respect to the $1.5 billion debt reduction, we think we can get half of it done through disposition activity, so call it $750 million, the other half through retained excess cash. Obviously, if we're successful in getting more than $750 million in the door, that would obviously then accelerate that overall debt reduction. So that's a little of how we're thinking about it over the next period of time. I would say upstream asset dispositions is our priority. We've got a couple of public processes out there. It's probably no mystery to anyone in the room. You probably all got the teasers. And so we're actively engaged on those and progressing. And so that's giving me a lot of confidence there. I would say that what I alluded to on the conference call is there's obviously opportunities in other parts of the business. Infrastructure is one, royalties are another. What we're really telegraphing is we're willing to use any and all weapons to try to accelerate this debt reduction. In particular, with the infrastructure, I think one of the things you stand back and look at it is when we picked up our original Spartan Delta position, that infrastructure is actually not owned by us. It's owned by a third party. When we picked up Hammerhead, that infrastructure is owned by us. So we're sitting here in the Montney field. The combination of some of the batteries, obviously, we own, some we don't. So I think there's an opportunity there. That's really what I was alluding to as far as that goes. And we'll see. Obviously, with success in upstream, I think it takes the pressure off looking at other things, but we're willing to look at a number of different things from that perspective.
Craig Bryksa
executiveThe only thing I would add to that, Aaron, is one of the things that's critically important to us as we think through this process is us maintaining operatorship so that we have all the flexibility in those facilities to be able to do what we need to do as we're going. And then the other thing is, and I just alluded to it, you start to look out to 2028. If we're going to need a battery here and a battery there, and that sort of thing is as the Montney continues to grow for us. It might be nice to have a little bit of a strategic partner in there that helps you fund a little bit of that or it takes the pressure off funding some of that as you go to. So we'll see how that ends up playing out. That's just one of the things that you're working through as we sit with the management team and then the Board and you're thinking through, okay, how do we want to do this? You've got a, call it, a bananas of opportunities in front of you, how do you pick and choose and move through it. So it's certainly something we're going to think about.
Shant Madian
executiveMaybe another question from the webcast. Just on the current hedge book, how do you feel right now? Do you feel comfortable where you're at for 2024? And as the balance sheet continues to improve, how do you think about those levels both for oil and for gas.
Craig Bryksa
executiveYes, I can take that, and then Ken can add some color, too. But so the hedge book, if you think of us right now, we're about 45% hedged as far as oil. When you look at gas, we're about 30% hedged, and we've got a pretty robust book built on both products. So I wouldn't look for us to add anything to 2024 as you look through that. I would tell you basically with how are the majority of the book being callers, anything below $74, we're making money. And as it starts to pension to that $81 level, you start to see a little bit of losses in there. So that's really how it floats. Right with the commodity right now for '24, and we will look out into 2025, and we're hedgers. We're always going to have a little bit of a hedge book build. So we will look out into 2025 and we're bumping into that. I would tell you though that as our leverage comes down, don't look for us to go as high as 45% even just with us last year when you think of where we were on our debt, we were in that call it, 25% to 30-ish percent at the start of the year is how we'd be thinking through that. So I would expect as we get to our optimal debt level, that will be somewhere around 20%, 25%, 30-ish but not the 45% where we are today. So I guess that's my long-winded way of saying. We're good for this year. We'll bump in a little bit in the next year. Percentages will come down as our leverage comes down. But there will always be some.
Unknown Attendee
attendeeJust on the 60%, why is it 60%? Why don't you increase it now? And then when you sell your assets, you can then increase it higher. Like most of the companies that gone to the higher numbers have had pretty good market reception. Like what's hold you back from -- or what's going to 60% today?
Craig Bryksa
executiveYes. I think so as we came out with our framework, and it's been in place now for, I want to say, maybe 24 months, a couple of years? Anyway, it's been in place for a while, and we like the 60%. Like for us, it's important to deleverage the balance sheet and strengthen the balance sheet as quick as we can. And a quick way for us to do that is to continue to maintain that 40% that we're currently keeping and throw that against the balance sheet. And then as we get to those levels, we're comfortable, that's where we'd start to look to grow to that. And what that ends up being, Ken had alluded to, maybe ends up being 75-ish percent, we've yet to set on. But certainly, some debate going to happen with the management team and the Board as we make our way through that. I would expect -- I certainly expect that to grow. To what level we're not 100% sure. But in the near term, let's get our debt down as quick as we can, let's maybe remove a little bit of that risk or the questions that the market would have around us on that balance sheet. So that's a big part of it is how we think through. Because as you're well aware, I talked to you about where we were driving towards on that slide and balance sheet strength is one of those pillars that drives top quartile performance, right? So for us, we believe we've got a top quartile asset base now, we absolutely do. You pair that with the top quartile balance sheet and then a way you go. So that's really where the push is here in the near term is to optimize that as quick as we can. Do you have any? Anybody got any questions on me.
Aaron Bilkoski
analystSo you guys outlined on your strategic vision slide, investment-grade credit rating. How important is the investment grade credit rating to you? And do you have to get there before you increase the return of capital?
Craig Bryksa
executiveYes. So that's a good question. So the other thing I'd tell you, too, Aaron, and I'll let Ken take this one. But when we throw together one slide, you can imagine the materials that comes behind that as you're going through really building that out. So for us, our strategy binders are that, they're binders, and we try to just piece it together in one slide and where we're going. And investment grade is important to us. It provides so much flexibility, and we're working through that, and then Ken can give you a little bit of color on how that sits. But it's important to us.
Kenneth Lamont
executiveAnd I would say, like increasing return of capital, that's not dependent upon reaching investment grade. Investment grade and the criteria for it can move around a little bit depending on the macro. But I would say, again, part of the overall strategy, absolutely diversifying our debt, that absolutely will be wonderful to do that and be able to access those public debt markets and [ term out ] debt. So I think it's definitely something within our strategy, but increasing return of capital is not dependent upon achieving that. And we're getting really close here. You see the size and the scale that we're driving towards liquids weighting, the deep margins that we're generating, the ability to bring on attractive F&D year-over-year with that unbooked inventory potential. Like I think we've really set up ourselves now to see the road and sort of drive along towards that.
Craig Bryksa
executiveWell, this was great. So thanks, everybody, for attending today. I know it's tough to get you away from your desk, especially when -- for those in attendance have to plow through whatever it ends up being out there, 5 feet of snow. But we absolutely are thankful that you did come. Hopefully, you took a lot away from it. And all of you in the audience know us well. If you have questions, reach out. But I can tell you from where we were to where we are is even comparable and how Veren looks moving forward. We're extremely excited about it. It's not only the executive team and the Board, but I would just get ready for us to just pound out quarter after quarter after quarter. And then ideally, we get more comfort and more comfort and more comfort with not only the asset base but the management team. But again, it's the foundational strategy underneath that really differentiates us. So thanks again for your time.
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