Verisure plc (VSURE) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary
November 26, 2025
Earnings Call Speaker Segments
Operator
operatorWelcome to the Verisure Group Third Quarter 2025 Results Presentation. Today, I am joined by CEO, Austin Lally; and CFO, Colin Smith. [Operator Instructions] Now I will hand the conference over to the speakers. Please go ahead.
Colin Smith
executiveThank you, operator. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our Q3 results presentation. Today, you can find our Q3 results presentation, earnings release and Q3 interim report on our Investor Relations website. We've also updated our trending schedules, setting out key operating and financial data over the last 10 years. On today's call, we will go deeper into our Q3 results, address your key questions, and provide several strategic updates. Austin will start with opening remarks covering key performance highlights, I'll then share more detail on the financials before Austin comes back with strategic updates and closing remarks. So with that, Austin, over to you.
Austin Lally
executiveWell, thank you, Colin, and good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us on what is a very special day for Verisure. It's our first earnings call as a public company. Going public, it's not just an event focused on financing, it's a commitment to transparency, discipline and long-term value creation. And as we open this next chapter, we're pleased to share a strong third quarter, characterized by high-quality growth, consistent execution and expanding profitability. And my theme for the quarter is basically promises made, promises kept. Let's get into the presentation and turn to Slide 2. Verisure delivered an excellent set of results in the third quarter. Our growth was high quality and broad based. It was characterized by strong demand from new customers alongside significantly increasing the profitability of our customer portfolio. Q3 is historically our lowest quarter for installation volume due to the summer period, and yet we delivered 214,000 new installations, up 5.2% year-on-year. This is a clear signal of healthy underlying demand and the effect of commercial execution across our footprint. Annualized recurring revenue increased 10.2% year-on-year at constant currency, reinforcing the company's predictable high-quality growth profile. Excellent progress on costs supported a strong increase in adjusted EBIT, which increased 17.1% year-on-year, with margins expanding to 26.8% in the third quarter. This combination of solid top line growth and disciplined margin progression remains a core attribute of Verisure. We also closed our acquisition in Mexico at the end of October, welcoming 685 new talents to the team and approximately 125,000 customers. We enter as clear market leaders with unit economics broadly at European market levels and a profitable cash-generative portfolio. Mexico basically becomes our 18th national market that further diversifies our base and extends our future runway of growth. As we look to the full year 2025, we expect ARR growth above 12%, and that would be above 10% organically, plus 2 percentage points from Mexico. And for the full year of 2025, we expect adjusted EBIT in the range of EUR 940 million to EUR 950 million. Our 2025 performance places us on track to deliver against our midterm targets. Moving to Slide 3, we take a broader look at our third quarter numbers. Our portfolio closed at over 5.9 million customers, representing portfolio growth of 8% year-on-year. When you add on Mexico, our customer base has already moved well past 6 million. That's a significant milestone for Verisure, the one that we see as only a way point on our journey, given the large addressable market opportunity we have ahead of us. And as discussed, new installations increased 5.2%, a strong improvement from the second quarter as the trend that we mentioned in passing in July, continued through August and September. Total revenues increased 9.9% year-on-year, and ARR reached almost EUR 3.3 billion. The recurring revenues generated by our portfolio reflects the long-term nature of our relationship with customers whilst also offering stability and high levels of visibility. The predictable nature of our portfolio revenues is an important driver of our financial strength. Finally, we were pleased with our adjusted EBIT at EUR 250 million in Q3. This is our highest ever quarterly EBIT. And Q3 margin increased to 26.8%, and that's up 165 basis points year-on-year. So the visibility of our revenues, it's complemented by consistent margin expansion. Turning to Slide 4, we've grown our portfolio by 439,000 customers over the past 12 months. The consistency of our delivery can clearly be seen in our consistent quarter-on-quarter portfolio growth. And our strong commercial performance is further reinforced by high customer satisfaction. On the right, you see our track record of low attrition. In Q3, our annualized attrition was 7.1%, and we have delivered 7.4% on average over the last 12 months. So the portfolio remains very stable and well within our attrition corridor. Now we consider our attrition rate, it's not only the lowest among our industry peers by far, but among the lowest globally within consumer-facing subscription businesses. Now this success starts with ensuring a quality customer intake. We then strive for operational excellence across all customer touch points. And our data and analytics expertise enables us to identify and address both visible and inferred detraction. Our strategy remains consistent, and our teams continue to execute well as the clear category leader in our footprint, the market maker, taking 2/3s of the market growth, we're excited about the opportunity ahead of us. We have a playbook that's tried and tested. It continues to increase our competitive moat. And importantly, at the end of Q3, I would like to thank all of our 30,300 teammates who delivered this excellent quarter of results. And I'll now hand over to Colin to run through our financials in more detail.
Colin Smith
executiveThanks, Austin. Let's turn to Slide 6. I note that I will always refer to growth rates in constant currency where applicable. We delivered an excellent quarter of broad-based growth in Q3. Total revenues were EUR 933 million, up 9.9% year-over-year. Annualized recurring revenue reached EUR 3.292 billion, up 10.2% year-over-year. ARR remains our primary top line metric, reflecting the long-term nature of our customer relationships and providing a foundation for our consistent and compounding growth. Adjusted EBITDA was EUR 443 million in the quarter, up 11.6% year-over-year, delivering a margin of 47.4%, an expansion of 100 basis points. And lastly, our Q3 adjusted EBIT increased 17.1% year-over-year to EUR 250 million. We were particularly pleased with EBIT margin expansion in Q3, increasing to 26.8%, which was supported by continued progress on ARPU and effective management of our costs. On a year-to-date basis, our adjusted EBIT margin is 25.8%, up 94 basis points year-on-year at constant currency. Let's turn to Slide 7, please. Austin talked earlier about our new installation growth, up 5.2% versus last year. We maintained July's growth throughout Q3, navigating well around previously discussed changes in the digital ecosystem. Our growth remains disciplined. We optimize for new customer volumes, always ensure customer intake quality and stay focused on customer acquisition cost. I was pleased with cost per acquisition in Q3 at EUR 1,486 and up 5.2% year-over-year, which was lower year-over-year growth than we saw in H1. We made excellent progress on direct procurement, with hardware costs down around 2% year-on-year. As a reminder, CPA will naturally ebb and flow, but given the quality of our customer intake and customer lifetime value, returns remain compelling. In terms of the investment in new customer acquisition, an important metric is acquisition multiple. We continue to generate very strong returns on new customers with our acquisition multiple stable at 3.6x in the quarter. Organic new installations generate a 20% IRR measured over a 15-year time frame. We also increased our sales force by around 3% year-over-year. And with installation growth at 5.2%, we captured additional productivity across our 12,000 strong sales team. Let's now turn to Slide 8 to look at our customer portfolio performance. Q3 monthly ARPU was EUR 46.2 per customer, up 2.1% year-over-year. This continues our long unbroken track record of consistent ARPU growth. Our innovation-backed price increase in Q1 has sustained well through 2025. To further support ARPU, we've increased entry ARPU from new customers. We've talked about this before, but it's an important part of our strategy to avoid any front book, back book dynamic. We also remain highly disciplined in terms of portfolio discounting. We continue to increase upsell propensity, adding new products and services to existing customers in the third quarter. In Spain, our largest market, we upsold over 24% of the portfolio in Q3 on an annualized basis, which was up 1 percentage point year-over-year. Upselling provides an opportunity not only to increase ARPU, but also importantly, to increase usage and consequently lower attrition. On costs, recurring monthly costs were EUR 11.77, which was down 3.8% year-over-year. This was where we put a lot of focus in the quarter. Q3 typically benefits from a lower nominal RMC due to vacation patterns and workload reduction. We continue to push our digital first program, first time resolution, and AI tools and contact centers to reduce cost without compromising experience, and Austin will expand on this later in the presentation. As a result of both higher ARPU and lower RMC, our leading measure of portfolio profitability, EBITDA per customer increased by 4.2% year-on-year to EUR 34.40 per customer per month. This growth is consistent in Q3 and year-to-date again underscoring the valuable predictability in our high-quality portfolio. We often calibrate how to best optimize EBITDA per customer on a quarter-to-quarter basis, focusing more on ARPU or cost as fits the season and the momentum of the business. All in, this means that for the year-to-date, we've delivered a portfolio margin of 73.9%, which is up 124 basis points year-on-year. Turning next to cash flow. On this slide, I've set out cash conversion, excluding working capital as well as free cash flow before financing. Cash conversion remained stable at 69% in Q3 and continues a progressive multiyear trend. In terms of net cash, our net debt increased by EUR 27 million in Q3, a lower outflow quarter-on-quarter as we move through an inflection point on cash. As a reminder, this performance does not yet include benefits from debt paydown subsequent to our IPO. In terms of working capital, we reduced our outflow to EUR 20 million in the third quarter reflecting inventory normalization after H1 builds. Let's now turn to Slide 10. We reduced our last 12 months net leverage by 0.1 turns to 4.7x, a 0.4 turn reduction year-over-year. Pro forma for IPO and Mexico acquisition, our last 12 months net leverage is approximately 3x and in line with our guidance. We reaffirm net leverage guidance of 2.5x to 2.75x at the end of 2026, and expect to initiate ordinary dividends in the second half of 2026. In late October, we concluded our post-IPO refinancing program, completing a new 7-year EUR 1.25 billion Term Loan B priced at Euribor plus 225 basis points with a leverage ratchet. This followed the completion of a new 5-year EUR 950 million revolving credit facility and a EUR 1.2 billion Term Loan A. Both instruments have initial pricing at Euribor plus 175 basis points, again, with margin step-downs as leverage declines. Post this refinancing, we have a well diversified capital structure to support our growth in the coming years. Our next maturity is February 2028 with our debt complex approximately 65% fixed. We were also pleased to secure 3-notch rating upgrades from Moody's and S&P Global. We're now rated Ba3 (sic) [ Ba1] by Moody's and BB+ by S&P with stable outlook. This positions our rating 1 notch below investment grade. We believe these upgrades reflect our proven characteristics as a quality growth compounder with strong cash generation potential. We remain confident in our guidance to lower our weighted average cost of debt from 5.7% in 2024 to between 4% and 4.5% in 2026. This will lead to lower interest expenses of between EUR 200 million and EUR 220 million in 2026 versus 2024. Lastly, before I hand back to Austin, let's turn to headline guidance on Slide 11. We confirm that we expect 2025 ARR growth to be above 12%, made up of above 10% organically, plus around 2% from our Mexico acquisition. We expect adjusted EBIT to be between EUR 940 million and EUR 950 million for the full year 2025. And this already embedded the currency devaluation we saw in Q3 in LatAm, particularly in Argentina. We have high confidence in continuing to deliver our medium-term guidance with a category-creating growth compounder fully focused on continuing to generate long-term value for all investors. Thank you. And with that, I'll now pass back to Austin.
Austin Lally
executiveWell, thank you, Colin. Let's turn to Slide 13. This is a reminder of our playbook. We talked a lot through the IPO about how we win. And this playbook, tried and tested is at the heart of how we continue to unlock growth across our footprint. First off, category-defining innovation. We invest to develop our proprietary technology and hardware to bring new products and services to new and existing customers. And we aim for an increasing cadence of delivery, broadening our appeal and suite of services, and I'll share 2 examples later. Our investment in innovation brings many benefits, driving new customer demand, lowering attrition through increased usage, creating upsell opportunities and lowering our operating costs through carefully designed products and to ultimately expanding our addressable market. Scale on investment and innovation is important here. As a reminder, we are 5x the size of the #2 in our category and that gives us significant capacity to invest and grow ahead of competition with an advantage that increases year-on-year. We recently announced the expansion of our global technology organization with a new additional site in Alicante. The opening of this site reflects our commitment to continue investing in technology and innovation. The expansion will further enhance the group's global technology capabilities and provide access to a broader talent pool. Second, category-creating marketing. We invest in brand through high-impact media and marketing. We invested around EUR 220 million in the first 9 months of 2025 to drive demand and expand share. Third, we grow and maintain a large high-performing sales team with 12,000 security experts, and this go-to-market muscle delivers unmatched speed and quality of response. Our scale also supports the development of valuable growth, partnerships and alliances. In October, we announced the addition of MasOrange as a commercial channel in our largest market, Spain. MasOrange is now the leading telecommunications operator in Spain with a 30 million customer base. Starting in April '26, this agreement leverages the strengths of 2 industry leaders to offer customers a seamless experience across security and telecommunications. Fourth, we deliver our first-class customer experience. Our customer care quality remained consistently high. In Q3, for example, we provided on-site assistance to over 94,000 customers that required the intervention of police, fire, ambulance or a security guard, protecting our customers when it matters most. And lastly, our model is underpinned by a strong team with a strong culture. Our values embedded in our DNA foster a culture of high performance. And building on the employer recognition awards earned last year, we have now received employer awards in all 18 countries in which we operate, including Great Place to Work, Top Employer, and The Financial Times' Europe's Best Employers 2025 list. I'm also very pleased to share that last week, we achieved our highest ever company score of 88 in our annual employee engagement survey. That's up 2 percentage points versus last year. And the overall participation rate was very strong at 95%. And these results are a testament to the dedication, the high morale and the deep engagement from our teams. Moving on, we'll focus on some of our recent product launches. Slide 14, in the third quarter, we continue to exploit and monetize new products and services across our footprint. We've built strong momentum with LockGuard, our monitored connected door lock. In the third quarter, we achieved over 20% attachment to new sales in Spain with early reductions in like-for-like attrition driven by usage and convenience. We've installed approximately 175,000 units since the launch in Q2 2024. And that's still less than 3% of our customer base, highlighting the runway for upselling a LockGuard ahead. And LockGuard has been awarded Product of the Year already in 4 of the first countries launched. Let me look at GuardVision on Slide 15. This is our AI-enabled outdoor camera, and we've started here in France, and that launch generated a record month for bookings in July with over a 15% attachment rate to new installations in residential villas. GuardVision is an outdoor camera detector enabled with HD video and computer vision AI technology. This ensures that we minimize false positives, and that can often be the issue outdoor, with atmospheric change, with other weather impacts like very bright sunlight. This product extends our total shield concept now to the edge of the garden. And we designed the product to meet the #1 piece of feedback on aspirational products from customers, strong accurate outdoor protection is something that customers have been asking for, for a long time. GuardVision has already won a Red Dot Design Award, and we continue now the geographical rollout. Slide 16 highlights some AI use cases that we're deploying across the business to deliver growth as well as supporting our long-term margin target of 30%. The AI program, it's funded and managed centrally supported by our growing team of data scientists. We're starting with the core with improving verification accuracy. Computer vision AI technology on the edge improves our accuracy and our speed of action, all verified by our monitoring agents who provide the ultimate verification, the human touch and movements that really matter. This reduces false alarms, and it improves detection quality without adding additional headcount. Ultimately, this positively impacts our core economics, and we're operationalizing it at scale to improve accuracy, accelerate response times and boost productivity. Cost transformation is embedded at Verisure, and we continue to focus on workload reduction and the eradication of manual processes. As always, we target sustainable, high-quality cost reduction with no adverse impact on customer experience. AI-backed speech analytics tools in our contact centers, automatically transcribe call notes on to customer accounts, saving time and increasing accuracy. We're also launching AI backed knowledge and learning tools to contact center agents, real time during customer calls to help lower call durations and enabling more accurate issue diagnostics. We've also introduced sentiment analysis technology to our contact centers. Based on generative speech analytics, this technology uses AI to analyze conversations with our customers for keywords. This enables us to follow up on a proactive basis, if required, to reduce invisible distraction. So to close, let's turn to the next slide, Slide 17, and our key takeaways. So we are pleased with our strong third quarter results, which reflect excellent execution across the organization, the quarter underscores the continued momentum within the business. Our clear strategy is bearing fruit, with innovation continue to deliver, market and investments driving demand and our large and growing sales force executing well and onboarding increasing volumes of high-quality customers. Today, we're very pleased to confirm our 2025 outlook of above 12% ARR made up of above 10% high-quality organic growth complemented by an additional 2 percentage points of growth following the Mexico acquisition. Our adjusted EBIT is expected to be at EUR 940 million to EUR 950 million for the full year of 2025. And finally, we remain on track to deliver against our midterm guidance, promises made, promises kept. And we've got high confidence in our medium-term outlook of around 10% ARR growth and continued EBIT margin progression towards 30%. With that, I would now like to hand back to our operator, and Colin and I look forward to taking your questions.
Operator
operator[Operator Instructions] The next question comes from Annelies Vermeulen from Morgan Stanley.
Annelies Vermeulen
analystI have 2 questions. I'll take them one by one, if that's okay. So firstly, regarding the reduction in RMC, you referenced seasonality, but I would assume that you benefit from seasonality each year in Q3. So when we consider that year-on-year decline, was the seasonality effect just especially higher this year? Or was there anything else driving that? You've talked about the AI-based tools, so is it fair to say that the savings from some of those AI enhancements are running a bit ahead of your expectations?
Colin Smith
executiveAnnelies, it's Colin. Let me take that one. Look, I think first thing first, we were very pleased with the Q3 RMC. We delivered EUR 11.80 in the quarter, and that was down 3.8% year-over-year. I think the first thing to say is that, that doesn't just happen by accident. There's a lot of hard work and a lot of focus going into that from across the business. Now we do get a slight seasonality help in Q3 more broadly. We see lower workloads, and we also see slightly lower upgrade activity on the ARPU side. And that's because it's holiday season and we have customers and staff, obviously, taken a bit of a break. But you're right. I mean it's a year-over-year variance. The 2 things that we were particularly pleased with were, firstly, we had higher app usage from our customers, so higher digital interaction. And that basically allows customers to self solve more of the problems that they might encounter without having to contact our customer service centers. The second one, and really our largest single component of RMC is maintenance visits, and we saw lower maintenance visits on a year-over-year basis. We put this down to an increased diagnostic capability. And what that means is that customers can either fix an issue with their hardware themselves or more often contact center advisers can work with the customer to rectify the issue using diagnostics and diagnostic information that comes to them from the system. And of course, that means that we don't have to roll a truck, and we save around EUR 50 or EUR 60 each time we manage to do that. I think when I look at the quarter-on-quarter variance at 3.8%, I would probably point to the year-to-date variance at 2.2% of a saving as being a bit more representative of where I would think about going forward. And I think to your question on AI, we still stand on the threshold of AI, as Austin talked about. So we're excited about what's to come. We're already rolling out AI tools across the contact center estate, but I think we're only at the beginning of that, and there's more to come.
Annelies Vermeulen
analystBrilliant. And then secondly, just on the growth in new installations. Do you have a sense of how much of that 5.2% included some form of catch-up effect from Q2. Just thinking about that 3.2% year-to-date run rate is more indicative going into Q4 and for the full year.
Colin Smith
executiveI think we were very pleased with it, actually. It's not clear to us actually if there is sort of a catch-up. I think it's just more about stimulating customers at the moment, right? And basically, that traced to very good market execution, basically leading to more bookings, right? And that was obviously the thing that we adapted to coming out of Q2. I mean it ended up as our best ever third quarter which we were very happy about. And in terms of -- like how we feel -- we feel confident, right? We still see demand out there. And we think we've got a business model that works. That's 1 of the reasons why today we wanted to firmly just reiterate our confidence in the guidance we gave.
Austin Lally
executiveIf I can just add 1 thing to that. I mean I would point to the fact that the Q4 that we delivered last year was a significant growth quarter. So we were up 6.3% in Q4 last year year-over-year, and that was driven by a couple of things. It was driven by the LockGuard launch in France and Italy, and it was also driven by a particularly effective promotion that we ran over in Spain. So that's just kind of what bearing in mind as we think ahead to Q4.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Joachim Gunell from DNB Carnegie.
Joachim Gunell
analystSo given that we're well into Q4, and you're obviously still very confident about this full year guide. But can you share some thoughts with regards to sales pipeline activity, installation trends, customer retention trends, et cetera, for what you have seen so far into Q4 and if there's any notable changes relative to Q3?
Austin Lally
executiveI think just going to make a statement, we're confident about our guidance. I think that now that we're a public company, we've got to be careful about going further than what we've already published in the Q3 report where we guide on ARR growth and the adjusted EBIT margin. And we're not going to guide on like very specific metrics like cancellations or like booking numbers because, by the way, it's a very, very long list, right? I mean there's almost a limitless list of things you could ask me about. But hopefully, you get from our tone, right, we're reiterating the guidance. We've always been a long-term growth story.
Joachim Gunell
analystThat's very clear. But -- so if we just look at the free cash flow dynamics here, and you obviously saw a very positive trend here in the portfolio reinvestment rate in Q3. Are there any seasonal effects that we should consider here into Q4? Or can we anticipate continued reduction in the portfolio reinvestment rate? And perhaps just a comment on this net working capital dynamic for Q4 and whether that sets up a sequential uptick here on a group level free cash flow?
Colin Smith
executiveJoachim, let me pick that 1 up. I mean, I think in terms of cash generally and working capital specifically, I mean I think on Slide 9 in the presentation, we set out the fact that we're seeing good sequential progress in our free cash flow from Q1 into Q2 and then again into Q3, where we were at EUR 27 million of negative free cash. And as a reminder, as I said in my remarks, that's before any of the IPO debt paydown effects that we enacted just at the beginning of the fourth quarter. Working capital moved closer to neutrality in the third quarter, so it's EUR 20 million negative. I still expect positive working capital in the second half of the year, as I've said previously. I also -- thinking about cash more broadly and portfolio reinvestment rate, I don't think there's anything particularly seasonal to pick up your question that we should expect to see in the Q4. I think we were very, very pleased again to see a point or so of a reduction in that metric, which is so important to driving cash flow generation. So I think my summary on cash is that we stand by and we reaffirm the leverage guidance that we've given, which is 2.5x to 2.75x by the end of 2026. And that includes, of course, our commitment to paying our first dividend in the second half of 2026. Just one final factor that might be useful as you think about how to dimensionalize our cash in the third quarter. We incurred around EUR 20 million of IPO specific cash cost in the third quarter. So as you think about that negative EUR 27 million, that's probably an interesting element of that performance just to bear in mind.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Suhasini Varanasi from Goldman Sachs.
Suhasini Varanasi
analystJust a couple for me, please. Can you perhaps help us just remind us how you expect RMC to evolve in 2026 just because you're a public company now. Do you anticipate any higher costs linked to being a public company to be included within the RMC next year? And maybe just one on the upselling. Clearly, all the innovations are helping. And you mentioned how upselling has helped a little bit on the ARPU side. How much has it contributed to ARPU increase? And how do you expect that to evolve over the next couple of years?
Colin Smith
executiveLet me pick up the first 1, Suhasini. I mean I think what I'd take the opportunity to do here is talk a little bit about EBIT margin progression and how we see that in 2026 more broadly. And I think we've talked about progressive margins to 30% over the long term. We do expect to see a positive growth in '26 but at a lower level than we see in '25. And again, as we would expect also in 2027. The reason for that is 2 things. We've talked about the rebrand that we are beginning to undertake. We started in Portugal 3 weeks ago and we intend to get started with Spain next year. That will basically lead to an increased CPA as the majority of those costs sit in our operating expenses. The second thing to your point specifically is around PLC cost and we would expect to see around EUR 10 million of onetime step-up in RMC to basically take account of those costs of becoming a public company. Now those are recurring, but we see them as being a onetime step-up that impacts our 2026 margin development.
Austin Lally
executiveAnd I guess on the upselling question, I mean, what we've talked about historically is if we would increase ARPU typically 2.5%, for example, in a period, you may get a bit more than 50 bps from upselling. That's something we think we're obviously going to grow over time. I mean as we took Spain as an example, I mean, Spain in Q3, actually on an annualized basis, they upsold something new to 24% of the customer. So that's up 1 point year-on-year. And obviously, as the pipeline of new ideas like LockGuard, like the GuardVision, outdoor protection, becomes available, we end up having a richer set of opportunities to take back to customers.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Andy Grobler from BNPP.
Andrew Grobler
analystJust a couple from me, if I may. Firstly, just in terms of regional growth, other Europe was the strongest of your regions. Were there any notable differences across the countries there? And then secondly, on refinancing, that looks to be complete. Can you just confirm that you're done? Or is there anything else left to happen? And also, you talked about some benefits from deleveraging within that refinancing. Could you expand a little on that, please?
Colin Smith
executiveWell, why don't -- Andy, thanks for those. Why don't I pick up on refi and then pass to Austin for your other one. I mean, look, I think as we intimated in the update, we're really pleased with how we've gotten on on the refi front over the course of the past 6 or 8 weeks. We basically refinanced EUR 3.4 billion of Term Loan A, Term Loan B and RCF. The Term Loan A and the RCF, for example, are priced at Euribor plus 175 basis points. And we also have a ratchet mechanism in there that we'll see that margin reduce over time. We received 3 notch upgrades from both Moody's and S&P. As I said, and we've got all -- we're all very focused on getting ourselves formally into investment-grade over the course of the next 12 to 24 months. Now in terms of savings, as we walk through the IPO process, I was clear on guidance here, and I talked about EUR 200 million of savings from lower interest costs as we walk through the refinancing. I think we are comfortably at that level. And I think we would expect to deliver slightly higher, slightly better savings. So we've currently got an expectation range of between EUR 200 million and EUR 220 million net, which will crystallize from 2026. Just on a couple of points on the debt stack because I think it's important. I touched on this earlier. We're 65% fixed. Our next maturity is not until Q1 2028, but we've actually got another tranche of refi likely in the first quarter of 2026, and that will be around EUR 1.5 billion worth of debt, including those maturities that come in 2028. So we'll be moving those out still further. I think this puts us in a good place. I think it gives us a balance sheet for all seasons. I think it sets us up well for growth over the years ahead. So as I say, punchline is that we guided EUR 200 million. I think it will be slightly better than that on interest cost savings from '26.
Austin Lally
executiveYes, on the geographic point. And I'm glad you've noted that other Europe was such a strong contributor to our growth. I mean that was a key message that we wanted to communicate at the time of the IPO. More than 50% of our growth, obviously now coming from that cluster. I will say actually pretty broad based, and I don't necessarily want to go country by country. What I would say, in particular, if I think about scale, very happy with the position that we've built in France, right? That's now our second biggest market. And sort of coming up on the rails, if you want to use a horse racing analogy Italy, right? I mean, Italy has really been 1 of our star performers like over recent years. And these are 2 big economies with a lot of villas, but with quite a low level of penetration.
Colin Smith
executiveIf I may just add a slightly technical point. If you look at the interim report, Andy, our disaggregation of revenue by geographic cluster, you'll see that growth, as you rightly say, other Europe was led the way, 11.6% year-over-year growth in Q3. The 1 that's worth noting is LatAm where we grew our reported revenue by 5.7%. And again, that was against the backdrop, as we've talked before about significant currency revaluation in Argentina, in particular, and also in Chile. So that's the reason why the LatAm growth on the face of it kind of looks a bit lower than we've seen on a year-to-date basis.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from James Rowland Clark from Barclays.
James Clark
analystMy first is just on the outlook of EBIT of EUR 940 million to EUR 950 million. Can you just confirm where you think consensus sits at per your estimates? And also, I think that implies across that range, about a 2 percentage point drop in the margin at adjusted EBIT in Q4. Is this seasonality? Is it the typical mass seasonality we should expect in that margin in the fourth quarter? Or is there some scope in there for you to grow customers faster than you currently guide? My second question is on working capital. Can you just confirm expectations of an inflow of cash in the fourth quarter? I think in Q2, you were talking about the second half having an inflow as inventory levels normalize, but you've still got an outflow in Q3. So I just want to check the sort of scale and direction of the fourth quarter. And then my third question is on recurring monthly costs. I appreciate it's a long, long way of initiatives to come. But can you give us a sense of to what extent or how much of your estate you've rolled out those recent initiatives across to date?
Colin Smith
executiveSure. I mean, let me pick -- talk a bit about EBIT first. I mean, consensus, we've got around EUR 940 million, as published last week, and we are -- as we talked about guiding EUR 940 million to EUR 950 million. I mean I would point to the fact, not so much that Q4 was going to take a step down in EBIT margins, but really, Q3 was a little bit higher than you would expect. And again, this comes back to the point I made earlier about some slight seasonality in our Q3 numbers. And on a nominal basis that means that RMC is a bit lower because the workloads and that then, in turn, enhances those margins. Our Q3 EBIT margin was 26.8% and that will basically come back to what we consider to be a bit more of a normal level in the fourth quarter. On a year-to-date basis, our margins are actually at 25.8%. So it just shows you that we've delivered an extra 100 basis points of margin in the third quarter. So nothing particularly seasonal to kind of note as we look at Q4. Let me just pick up your second one, which is on working cap. As I touched on earlier, we are committed and we do have high confidence in the fact that working capital will be positive in the second half of the year. We did kind of get much closer to neutral in the third quarter, and we expect that to be, as I say, positive overall for the second half. James, you had a third one. Can you just remind us?
James Clark
analystYes, the AI initiatives and sort of cost savings initiatives in your installed base in terms of contact centers, assisting customers to solve problems with the hardware and so on. How much of your footprint if you rolled that out across to date? I'm just trying to think of the sort of sustainability and runway for further improvements on recurring monthly costs?
Colin Smith
executiveYes. Thank you. I mean, importantly, we don't -- typically, when we launch an AI-led transformation initiative for our piece of technology, we don't launch it broadly across the entire group. We tend to pick a market and we test it and make sure that we can optimize before we then take it to other markets. And it's a different initiative by initiative. We've got a broad suite that are either starting to be launched or indeed coming soon. So our latest calculations and it's tough to be particularly precise on this, right, is that so far, AI is saving us around $0.20 of RMC per customer per month. But clearly, that's going to grow at pace. And I think the decision for Austin, the team and I is really just making sure that we don't overload and that we can launch things in a measured way and make sure that we can take advantage of things that work well with certain customer types or indeed in certain markets.
Austin Lally
executiveYes. Well said. I am just going to add a comment on top of this, which is -- it's actually possible in general, and I spend obviously quite a bit of time externally. We're looking at what other people are trying to make happen with AI. I mean it's possible to actually take out more cost, but at the expense of the customer experience and the accuracy and the reason that we're cautious and methodical in the implementation is to make sure that we actually deliver better customer outcomes. I mean a good example of that would be in monitoring, for example, we're not trying to eliminate monitoring center agents, right? In fact, that's not a big part of our cost. What we want is to enable those agents to verify real incidents more accurately so that we can give a better experience to the customer. So we're looking at AI basically through both sides. One is to do the job better and the other one is to find efficiency, right? And we got to kind of balance those 2 things.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Raymond Ke from Nordea.
Raymond Ke
analystA couple of questions from me. I'll ask them one by one, if that's okay. First, I know you do not operate with a separate front book and back book dynamic. But we've noticed a lot of advertisement with discounted prices here in Sweden lately. And I'm just wondering, is it correct to say that you're balancing this with higher ARPU elsewhere? And for that reason, we should not expect volume growth to become a bigger driver than ARPU ahead than it has been in the past?
Austin Lally
executiveThe way you should think about the marketing model actually is that promotions that we advertise to create demand are then followed when the salesman is at the customer's table with an opportunity to upsell to larger packages and to add extensions to the system. So you shouldn't equate what you might call a promotional hook designed to start a conversation with what the ARPU eventually ends up being when the customer buys from us. I mean, we've always had promotions in our marketing, but we still have this effectively balance between the ARPU front book, back book as Colin pointed out. So what that means -- if you want to try and buy from us in Sweden, which I strongly encourage, you may not end up getting the deal you think you're going to get because you're going to be so impressed by the technology you're going to buy more.
Raymond Ke
analystThat sounds lovely. My second question on the high attachment rates for LockGuard in Spain and the GuardVision in France. I assume this helps boost ARPU. Or is there a dynamic of them cannibalizing on other products? Or are they sold largely stand-alone that sort of mitigates any positive? Or how should we think about this?
Austin Lally
executiveI mean there's a bit of cannibalization because sometimes customers will choose I'll take outdoor protection, but maybe I'll take fewer other devices. But I mean, it's still significantly incremental, right, which is why when we put those new devices and we're actually getting higher levels of ARPU from those customers. Also worth pointing out about attachment rate. They tend to build over time, right? And not just because of consumer education because of sales force education mean when we try to put a more complicated new product out into the field, the toughest critics actually are our own sales force. I mean with LockGuard, it was a really cool idea, but the biggest challenge we had on LockGuard was persuading salespeople that it was easy to install because in the early days they get a bit scared are a bit starting to launch into an installation where they're messing around where the customers look and they wanted they're not going to get it finished. So that's why we've kind of been at this since Q2 2024. Now we've got up to 20% attachment, but we think that's going to build over time as the customers understand better and as the sales force gets more comfortable selling it.
Colin Smith
executiveAnd it's helpful to just reminding you about a dynamic that we often kind of come across, which is the relationship between an upfront revenue in the case of an upsell or even a new customer, for example, an ongoing ARPU. And we will always basically prioritize ongoing ARPU increase because of our long 15-year customer lifetime. So if we can upsell an existing customer at LockGuard and we can cover the cost of the hardware as an upfront, but add EUR 3 to EUR 5 on our monthly ARPU, that's absolutely the direction that we'll take.
Raymond Ke
analystGot it. That's very helpful. And just maybe 1 final 1 regarding ADT Mexico acquisition. How long do you expect it to take to integrate it now that you've sort of seen it maybe have had sometimes look at it. Like when -- how many months do you expect it to take for it to reach normalized growth and margin levels in line with other geographical markets?
Austin Lally
executiveYes. I mean listen, the first thing to say is there's nothing to integrate it into, right, in the sense that we don't exist in Mexico today. So I mean, the way to think about it is we're going to take over a talented local organization because it's a leadership organization. And we are going to add to that organization, some of our very sure capabilities. Obviously, Colin, you'll have to figure out the financial plumbing, like fit it into our systems and just make sure that we get the benefits from it. But it's not a complicated -- it's not a merger between companies. It's about how do we take this asset and add value to it.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Jane Sparrow from JPMorgan.
Jane Sparrow
analystJust 1 question for me. You touched on the rebrand in an earlier answer. It's early days, I know, but perhaps can you give us a bit of an update on how that rebranding project and perhaps also the 2G, 3G upgrade are playing out in terms of customer response and upsell and whether it's playing out as you expected?
Austin Lally
executiveWhy don't I pick 2G, 3G, and I'll give you a cheeky answer on the rebrand.
Colin Smith
executiveI mean I think 2G/3G, as we've talked about before, we're already well underway. And we're still receiving from customers a very strong kind of customer feedback and a good level of monetization importantly when we do upgrade customers. We're making really good progress. So we're now down to around 2.3 million customers overall that need to be upgraded over the next 6, 7 or 8 years. That's less than 40% of our portfolio. The net investment in those customers is still around EUR 150 to EUR 200. So we're making a return on that investment by extending the customer lifetime only marginally by around 5 months or so. If you look at the interim report, you'll see our portfolio CapEx reflects the fact that this year, we've spent around EUR 50 million in CapEx on 2G/3G. I would reiterate our guidance of EUR 75 million to EUR 100 million in '26 and '27. And then a real step down because by that point, we'll have gotten through the vast majority of the upgrade program. Again, our approach and our attitude here is to -- it's 1 of aggressive patients, right? We want to try and get as many customers upgraded well, well, well ahead of the telco network sunsets as we possibly can because we know that, that brings a better customer experience and also importantly, a better level of monetization.
Austin Lally
executiveYes. Very good. On the rebranding, first of all, the legalistic comment is that the rebranding activity kicked off in Portugal on October 22nd. So it technically is an event outside the quarter, that's the sort of the cheeky legalistic point. I will say it's very early days, therefore, it's only a few weeks, but we're really happy with the visibility that we've now created in the Portuguese market. Strong TV plan. I think we talked about this at the IPO, what we were going to do. So significant step-up in reach to Portuguese consumers. Strong outdoor presence. Strong digital presence. Really focusing on educating Portuguese consumers that, in fact, Verisure and Securitas Direct is the same excellent company that it's always been. So I mean, early days, but we're happy with how the early steps are gone. One thing I will tell you, the people that it landed brilliantly with for the Portuguese organization, it's been a really big morale booster for the Portuguese team because they see it as a future and they see it as a company really stepping into investor. But we'll have more to tell you, I think, in Q4.
Operator
operatorThe next question comes from Erik Lindholm-Rojestal from SEB.
Erik Lindholm-Rojestal
analystSo I just wanted to ask on the partnership with MasOrange that you mentioned. It sounds promising. Can you give some more details perhaps on how this is shaped? Will they be adding sort of Verisure into their bundles or help promote you in their commercial channels? And is there any sort of rev share element to this? I'll get back with the second question.
Austin Lally
executiveYes. Listen, I think the big opportunity here is all their channels are an opportunity to sell. I mean they've got a very big retail footprint across the country. I mean thousands of opportunities, plus they've got field sales partners, plus they've got strong telesales operation. They're actually known for being very good like on their ability to use data and analytics in terms of targeting potential customers. So I can't put a number on it, and it will take time to build, but we're very excited about it. What it effectively means now is we're going to have a very strong telco partner alongside having a very strong banking partner with Caxia and a very strong insurance partner with Mapfre. And in all these partnerships, there's obviously a rev share, which is always going to be a win-win for both parties. We try and create some value for the partner. We think they also get a benefit, by the way, not just financially, but also on things like attrition and customer stickiness, which I know is appreciated. And it's a way of bringing additional growth to us on efficient acquisition economics.
Erik Lindholm-Rojestal
analystThat makes sense. And then just I wanted to follow up on -- you spoke about the Mexico acquisition, but I wanted to follow up on M&A, but more broadly. So having done Mexico, I mean do you think there are other attractive M&A opportunities out there? And how do you prioritize this sort of more broadly versus increasing or decreasing organic reinvestments?
Colin Smith
executiveI think it will change our strategy, which is we look at everything, and we say no to most things, right? I mean we've got an M&A director in the company, who I always say, is one of the least productive employees, except to create so much value by saying no to things, right? Generally, the portfolios that are out there, that are often at lower priced with higher attrition and with old technology. So we're super selective, right? So we never rule out like attractive inorganic opportunities. But our track record show is that most of our playbook, right, is organic.
Operator
operatorThank you for your questions. I will now hand over to CEO, Austin Lally for closing remarks.
Austin Lally
executiveWell, thank you very much for all of your questions and your interest today. I just want to express my appreciation at the end of this quarter to all of our teammates across Verisure for the hard work and their unwavering commitment to our customers. And as we look ahead, we believe we're well positioned for the future on strategy, on industry-leading innovation and on disciplined operational execution. We remain the category leader. We're #1 in 14 of our 18 markets. We've got a very long runway in a highly underpenetrated category. We offer a uniquely differentiated customer proposition, combining best-in-class technology and services, combined with human intervention. And with recurring revenues, expanding margins and a disciplined balance sheet, we're confident in our trajectory. So I want to thank you again, and I look forward to coming together again in February and updating you with the full -- 2025 full year results.
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