Vicinity Centres (VCX) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Vicinity Centres FY '25 Interim Results Call. [Operator Instructions] I would now like to hand the conference over to Mr. Peter Huddle, CEO and Managing Director. Please go ahead.

Good morning, and thank you for joining us for Vicinity Centres' results call for the 6 months ended 31 December 2024. Joining me on today's call is Adrian Chye, our Chief Financial Officer. Before we begin, I'd like to acknowledge the traditional custodians of the lands on which we meet today and pay my respects to their elders past and present. I extend that respect to Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Peoples on the call today. I will start today's presentation on Slide 5. Our first half has been a continuation of FY '24 in terms of our strategic focus areas, momentum of execution and delivering positive portfolio metrics that support earnings resilience and importantly, future earnings growth. Our investment strategy remains anchored by our strong conviction that premium fortress-style assets that are located in great trade areas and are well managed by retail property experts potential to deliver superior and sustained income and value growth over time, even more so in an environment of ongoing population growth and limited new supply of retail floor space. We continue to actively reposition the asset mix, curating a more resilient and higher growth portfolio by our accretive acquisitions, transformational developments at our premium assets and by selling nonstrategic assets above book value. In that context, in just 18 months, we have divested interest in 10 assets, introduced joint venture partners into 2 of those, acquired 50% of Lakeside Joondalup as well as the residual 49% of Chatswood Chase and advance the major developments at Chadstone and Chatswood Chase. And while Australian households continue to contend with higher living costs and having anticipated a softer retail environment in the first half of FY '25, we have been pleased with the resilience of our retail centers, which delivered positive sales growth for the half. Further to this, retail tenants remain confident to lock in long-term leasing deals across our assets, and we have maintained our disciplined approach to negotiating new leases where the structure, tenure and value of rent written strengthens our current and future income growth profile. Touching on the results themselves. Vicinity delivered net profit after tax of $492.6 million for the 6 months, more than double the prior period. Funds from operation, or FFO, was largely in line with the prior period at $344 million. This was despite the impacts of divestments and despite FY '25 being the year when loss rent from our developments peaks. Adjusting for these elevated and largely short-term headwinds, FFO was up 3%, benefiting from robust comparable NPI growth at 4.2%, which Adrian will elaborate on shortly. From a valuation perspective, we are pleased to see continued growth once again supported by strong income generation, favorable market fundamentals and transaction evidence. We have made 2 important additions to our executive leadership team with Tammy Ryder commencing as Chief People Officer. Tam has extensive retail experience, most recently with Coles. In addition, Michelle McNally will commence with us in March as Group Director, Customer and Asset Management. Michelle has extensive property experience, including most recently as CEO of Aware Real Estate and previously senior property roles at ISPT and Australia Post. Finally, we were pleased to be recognized by the Global Real Estate Sustainability Benchmark as the sector leader across all listed peers spanning Australia and New Zealand, an accolade that highlights our continued focus on embedding sustainability into all aspects of our business. In FY '24, we redefined our organizational purpose and vision. Vicinity exists to shape meaningful places where communities connect. And with a network of 52 owned shopping centers nationwide, our centers naturally play an important role as economic and employment hubs where communities access essential and discretionary goods and services and connecting our entertainment, food and leisure precincts. Within a population of 27 million Australians, our 52 centers recorded 390 million visits in 2024, which is testament to the important role our centers play. Our organizational vision is to prosper with our people and communities by creating Australia's most compelling portfolio of retail-led destinations. In this context, our retail partners collectively generated annual sales of $18 billion last year, and our team of retail property experts manage more than $24 billion of assets, $15 billion directly on behalf of Vicinity and $9 billion on behalf of our 19 joint venture partners. Despite the important role our centers play in their communities, the retail property sector is observing an emerging shortage of retail floor space, measured by gross lettable area or GLA per capita. In fact, over the next 10 years, GLA per capita is expected to fall by 5%, owing to tight planning controls, capacity constraints and increases in compliance requirements across Australia's construction sector, limit a major retail expansion demand and the resulting elevated cost environment. And while the supplier small grocery-anchored neighborhood centers is forecast to grow in the coming years, these centers tend to be located on urban fringes and are, therefore, less likely to compete directly with larger regional malls. Additionally, Australia's population is forecast to grow by 15% to more than 31 million by 2033, which, in turn, is expected to drive a 30% increase in retail sales over that time, once again validating our investment strategy. While online retail sales growth continues to outpace physical retail. The past few years has proven that in Australia, online and physical retail act symbiotically. With emerging shortfall of GLA per capita, retailers are now deliberately and selectively renewing their leases with longer tenure and with larger store formats in our premium assets. This is evidenced by the 17% increase in the average store size across our premium asset portfolio since pre-COVID. A growing shortage of GLA per capita also presents significant opportunity for retail assets that are well capitalized, located in great trade areas, has a retail offer that is uniquely curated for the center's ever-evolving customer needs and that are well managed by retail property experts and companies that have material direct equity interest in these assets. These malls boast strong visitation, higher occupancy rates and growing sales productivity, which ultimately supports superior and importantly, sustainable rent growth through cycles. We know this because we have the proof points in our business today. While our overall portfolio is in good shape, it's the premium assets that do much of the heavy lifting in terms of growth. At 5.7% comparable NPI growth delivered by our premium asset portfolio was 150 basis points above the portfolio average. At 6.7% leasing spreads achieved with 320 basis points above the portfolio average, with outlets and Chadstone collectively delivering a 10.5% leasing spread in the half. At 99.6%, premium asset occupancy sits 20 basis points above the portfolio average. And premium center sales productivity is more than 20% higher than the average at nearly $16,000 per square meter. And when we overlay the emerging supply and demand dynamic, the importance of and the opportunity presented by our investment strategy is magnified even further. The chart on the left is an illustration of our capital allocation model that has effectively driven the meaningful premiumization of our asset portfolio that is depicted on the right. On a pro forma basis, which assumes the completion of current developments and the settlement of announced divestments, Vicinity has invested $1.7 billion into premium assets since June 2022. At the same time, we have reduced our exposure to nonstrategic core assets by $1 billion via divestments noting that this is net of development expenditure that has ensured our core assets have remained well capitalized. The outcome is depicted on the charts on the right, where premium assets as a proportion of our total portfolio value have increased from 51% at June 2022 to 64% at December 2024 on a pro forma basis. In FY '25 to date, we have raised $457 million of proceeds from asset sales, exceeding our FY '25 target by more than $200 million, with transactions executed at a blended premium to book value of greater than 5%. We sold our interest in Roselands, and we have exchanged unconditional contracts for the sale of Carlingford Court and a 50% interest in Elizabeth City Centre. While the nonstrategic assets we have sold have a relatively higher yield compared to the premium assets we've acquired, resulting in some short-term earnings dilution, we believe this strategy will ultimately lead to a more resilient and higher income growth portfolio. As I said earlier, we've been pleased with the resilience of our retail centers. The portfolio delivered positive sales growth in the first half of FY '25, up 2%, buoyed by a more robust second quarter where sales increased 2.7% on the prior year. Relative to the extraordinary growth post-pandemic, luxury sales continued to trend lower. However, we have been pleased to observe the rate of sales decline easing over the recent half. That all been said, luxury retailers have enjoyed almost 30% growth in sales per square meter since 2019. And the category remains highly productive, exceeding an average of $60,000 per square meter relative to the portfolio average at just below $13,000. By excluding the impact of luxury, we observed even greater resilience and shopper confidence to spend at our senses. With the resurgence of sales growth across our more discretionary categories, such as homewares, up 4.3%; our largest category, apparel and footwear, up 3.8%; and jewelry up 2.8%. Once again, the momentum behind Black Friday or increasingly the Black November sales event with specialty and mini major sales in November up by more than 7% on the prior year and up 5.5%, including luxury. Additionally, the month of December was up almost 5%, which importantly indicate a solid and extended Christmas trading period for our retailers. Our many major stores significantly outperformed specialty sales in the period which essentially reflects successful remixing activity and comes back to my earlier comments on increased retailer demand for larger stores in premium assets. In terms of near-term outlook for the retail sector, we welcome the RBA's decision to lower rates, which, together with a resilient employment market, should support continual improvement in consumer spending. Turning now to leasing, where our portfolio metrics remain positive and continue to support current and future income growth. We finished the half with occupancy at 99.4%, 10 basis points up on June '24. In fact, all portfolio segments are now above 99% occupancy with the outlets effectively fully leased at 99.8%. Leasing spreads for the half remained favorable at positive 3.5%. The average tenure of new leases remained robust at 4.3 years. Also supporting income growth, we maintained the average annual escalators on your leases at a healthy 4.8%. And excluding assets that have been strategically held for development, the proportion of income on holdover remains low at just 3%. Finally, while our specialty occupancy cost ratio increased marginally to 14.1%, it remains at a sustainable level, providing headroom for continued rental growth in an improving retail sales environment. I'll now hand the call to Adrian.

Thanks, Peter, and good morning. I'll begin on Slide 12. Statutory net profit for the half year was $493 million. This comprised $344 million of FFO and statutory and other items of $149 million, being principally net property valuation gains. As Peter outlined, headline FFO was in line with the prior year, which was a solid outcome given short-term earnings headwinds associated with increased loss of rent from the transformational developments at Chadstone and Chatswood and some modest earnings dilution from asset sales executed in FY '24. Adjusting for these shorter-term impacts, FFO was up 3%. Underpinning this, was comparable NPI growth of 4.2%, with rent growth being driven by positive portfolio metrics, notably across our premium asset portfolio as well as strong ancillary income growth that was enhanced by the new Cartology media partnership we put in place in April 2024. Reflecting the stronger-than-expected first half, we now expect full year comparable NPI growth in the range of 3.5% to 4%. External management fees were down $5 million as we no longer receive fees for the management of Chatswood Chase following our acquisition of the residual 49% interest in March 2024. However, there is an offsetting benefit to corporate overheads, with development personnel costs related to the Chatswood development now capitalized to the project. The net impact of this high capitalization persisted in reducing the net corporate overhead line by 2.7%. Net interest expense for the half increased by $9.6 million, mainly due to higher market interest rates and the net impact of capital transactions on debt balances. We are pleased to reaffirm our FY '25 earnings guidance with FFO and AFFO per security expected in the ranges of $0.145 to $0.148 and $0.123 to $0.126, respectively. The FY '25 distribution payout ratio is expected to be at the lower end of the 95% to 100% guidance range and the first half distribution of $0.595 and represents a 1.7% increase on the prior period. Turning now to valuations on Slide 13. The portfolio delivered a net revaluation gain of $174 million or 1.2% over the past 6 months. With cap rates remaining broadly flat, the increased valuation was driven by underlying rental growth, partly offset by higher operating costs. Chadstone recorded a net valuation increase despite the cap rate increasing by 12.5 basis points. The valuation uplift reflected strong underlying income growth from sections of the center that are not directly affected by the development as well as a partial unwinding of the development risk allowance as the project nears completion. Vicinity's outlet centers continue to achieve strong income growth, highlighting the continued resilience of this category with DFO Homebush, Harbour Town Gold Coast and DFO South Wharf the key drivers. Of particular note, the valuation of our recently acquired interest in Lakeside Joondalup increased by more than 4%, meaning we have largely recaptured the acquisition costs in the first 4 months of ownership. The 25 basis point reduction in cap rate reflects stronger growth assumptions based on income and cost opportunities identified via our asset management platform and certainly, reinforces the attractiveness of the acquisition. Pleasingly, transaction markets continue to remain buoyant with increased investor demand and transaction evidence across most retail subsectors. Looking ahead, we expect that all retail property fundamentals and lower interest rates will continue to support retail property valuation growth. Turning now to capital management. Preserving our strong balance sheet and credit metrics remain a guiding principle for us when deploying capital and is a discipline we know our securityholders value. Divesting nonstrategic assets represents both an important funding mechanism as well as another lever to increase the quality of our portfolio. In this context, we have been able to make meaningful enhancements to our portfolio and concurrently reduce gearing. On a pro forma basis, which includes a settlement of Roselands, Carlingford Court and a 50% interest in Elizabeth City Centre, gearing reduced to 26.4%, and which is at the lower end of our 25% to 35% target range. We have also maintained our investment-grade credit ratings of A stable and A2 stable with S&P and Moody's, respectively. We continue to actively manage our funding risk, having issued $500 million of 7-year AMTNs at a margin of 130 basis points over the relevant swap rate. This increased our pro forma weighted average maturity to 4 years and enables us to maintain a well-staggered maturity profile. Together with $600 million of new and extended bank facilities implemented during the half, we now have sufficient liquidity to cover all expiries until the end of FY '26. We also recently announced the establishment of a distribution reinvestment plan or DRP, as a potential additional source of funding. And this DRP will be in operation for the interim distribution. In summary, we continue to maintain our strong capital position, which is a critical enabler of Vicinity's long-term investment and priorities. Thank you, and I'll now hand back to Peter.

Thanks, Adrian. Turning to our developments. As I've said before, our willingness and importantly, our ability to invest in the vibrancy and quality of our asset portfolio continues to be a key differentiator and source of competitive advantage. The majority of our committed capital spend this financial year continues to relate to the major projects at Chadstone and Chatswood Chase, noting that we have recently gained approval to commence initial construction works at Morley Galleria in Perth. Also during the half, we completed a number of smaller ambience and mall upgrade projects at Bankstown Central, Harbour Town Gold Coast and at Box Hill. From a broader development perspective, while the cost of capital remains elevated and the construction sector remains challenged. Our pipeline of retail and mixed-use projects remains elongated, and we continue to prioritize the most value accretive as well as defensive retail developments. The redevelopment of Chadstone's fresh food precinct, The Market Pavilion is undergoing its finishing touches ahead and opening in March. The design and retail offer in The Market Pavilion combines the very best of modern fresh food marketplaces with the ambience and much loved brands that are enthusiastically embraced by Melburnians. Two of Australia's top tier retailers are relocating their corporate headquarters to Chadstone's new 20,000 square meter office tower, One Middle Road. Adidas has commenced their fit-out and the commencement of Kmart's fit-out is imminent. With a significant proportion of Chadstone's floor space as well as a major car park being substantially closed for nearly 18 months. And given the quality of retail offer, we are bringing to our loyal customers. We have an optimistic outlook for the traffic and sales performance at Chadstone in FY '26 and beyond. At Chatswood Chase, the reimagined fresh food and dining precinct is now home to an extensive mix of fresh food, cafes and restaurants that create a vibrant atmosphere from early in the morning through to the evening. The latest retailers to own include pasta hotspot, Fabbrica Pasta Bar and cult cookie sensation, Butterboy, joining many more high-profile and bespoke offers. And recently joining the more than 50 specialty food and dining retailers is the best-in-class large format gourmet fresh food purveyor, LoSurdo's and it goes without saying that customer and retail feedback has been overwhelmingly positive despite the heavy construction in the levels above. The major retail development at Chatswood Chase is where the full potential of this asset will be realized. Right now, the majority of the major structural works are complete and the new mall reconfigurations are starting to take shape. We have agreements for lease and/or fully executed leases covering 85% of the income. And we're on track to commence opening ahead of the key Christmas trade this year with the luxury floor set for a grand opening in April 2026. While this opening has contributed to an increase in total project cost, the growing reputation and uniqueness of this asset has driven significantly more retailer demand than forecast, which has, in turn, delivered higher-than-expected rents. Consequently, our financial performance metrics remain broadly unchanged at a stabilized yield of approximately 6% and expected unlevered IRR of between 9% and 10%. Before I move to a general development update, let me reiterate that while the development at Chadstone and Chatswood Chase have not been without their challenges, Vicinity houses the requisite skill and experience to execute these events, placing these assets well ahead of the curve moving into the cycle. More broadly, initial works at Galleria are imminent and are a precursor to the stage delivery of the broader redevelopment expected to commence in the first quarter of FY '26. We look forward to updating the market more thoroughly at the full year as we bring this exciting project to market. The regeneration of Morley Galleria has also not been without its challenges, which have been exacerbated by construction sector capacity constraints greater Perth area as well as unfortunate and, quite frankly, counterproductive grandstanding from a small number of local politicians. In November, the New South Wales state government approved the Bankstown rezoning proposal as part of the transport orientated development program to create housing supply near major transport hubs. This approval provides a gateway for major residential development on Vicinity's land that adjoins the retail at Bankstown Central which is itself, adjacent to the metro station currently under development. Vicinity now has development and/or master planning approvals for over 6,000 residential apartments across Buranda Village, Box Hill Central, Victoria Gardens and Bankstown Central. While these approvals create the potential to unlock significant value at our assets, we continue to retain complete optionality in terms of how and when value is unlocked. In summary, we have had a strong start to FY '25, delivering predictable and growing income for our securityholders, while simultaneously driving capital growth over time, remain at the core of our business decisions and investments. In this context, FY '25 is a particularly important year for Vicinity. We are making meaningful investments in the future resilience and growth potential of our retail asset portfolio. And while these investments create short-term noise in our headline metrics, our conviction and confidence in our strategy is not only proven by the drivers of growth we have in our business today but are further supported by market optimism that bond rates have peaked globally and the retail property sector fundamentals are certainly moving in our favor. That said, there is plenty of work to be done to successfully close out the year. And equally, there are plenty of opportunities for continued growth organically and via selective acquisitions and developments. In closing, it continues to be mine and Adrian's privilege to lead the team at Vicinity and report our strategic, operational and financial progress to the market. And in doing so, we would like to thank and acknowledge everyone who works for and is associated with Vicinity for their ongoing commitment and support. Thank you, operator. I'll hand the call over for Q&A.

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Cody Shield from UBS.

Just a first question on development CapEx. So you've got a step-up in Chatswood spend there of around, what's that, $30 million. But then for '25 total spend, it's stepped down to $440 million. Could you just help me square those.

Yes. Adrian here. Yes, that's really just a bit of a delay in some of the spend. So it's just a timing issue that will push into FY '26.

Okay, sure. And I guess looking across the portfolio, your property income has clearly been strong. How are you thinking about your yield on cost for upcoming developments in that context?

It's Peter here. Look, in terms of the existing projects where we're not forecasting any material changes to yield on costs for both Chatswood or Chadstone. In terms of Galleria, that will be broadly similar, closer towards the high 5s to low 6s in terms of yield on cost, and IRR is similar in excess of 8% unlevered IRR.

Okay. That's great. Just the last one on guidance, if I may. So that was unchanged despite your higher NPI growth. Is that just the impact of divestments there? Or is there something else going on?

Yes. Thanks, Cody. Yes, I mean, we were, I think, pleasantly surprised with the stronger-than-expected first half and therefore, upgraded our comp NPI by 50 basis points. And that gives us about $5 million additional NPI for the year. I think you're right. There's probably just the transaction impacts given the upsize in the quantum of divestments. And then secondly, given the delay or the staging of Chatswood Chase, there is a bit of a delay in the capitalization of development resources. And so that's going to have a small impact into the second half, which also probably feeds into that decision to keep guidance kind of as it was when we initially provided it in August.

Your next question comes from David Pobucky from Macquarie Group.

I'm just following up on the $457 million of fitments in the first half versus your full year target of $250 million. Is there anything else that you're working on or looking at that might be exchanged in the second half?

David, it's Peter here. We have a couple of assets that are in the process of a market divestment activity. It's not hugely material. If they're divested, it's a total of about $180 million broadly, $170 million to $180 million. They're not finalized at this point in time. But if they do, we do expect them to be at least exchanged in the second half.

And just following up on one of the prior questions around development CapEx guidance. If you could please just talk a bit more around the higher cost at Chatswood Chase due to the staged opening, please?

We originally had Chatswood Chase all planned to be completed in the second half of this calendar year. That completion is -- it's now going to be a staged opening. So the first half, circa 50% of the center will open in the -- before Christmas of this year. And then the luxury retail will open in April of next year. So there's elongation costs associated with that, whether it's -- our team construction teams from the extended period of time, but there's also things such as capitalized interest. And we -- for the point of the cost, we capitalized lost rent associated for that period of time. There's a few latent condition issues that are associated with that and some extra scope that we've put in, which has driven also extra income. So broadly in line, the overall metric is still very similar at about a 6% yield return and circa 9% to 10% unlevered IRR.

And just my final one on the distribution payout ratio being at the lower end of the 95% to 100% target range. If you can just provide any thoughts around being at the low end and how we should think about it over the next few years, please, in the context of the development pipeline as well.

Sure, David. I think you've probably seen in the last couple of years, we've been at that 95% level, and that's probably on a BAU basis where we'd like to continue to be. The 95% to 100% range does give us a bit of flexibility when we would want to do that. But at this stage, I think given probably a number of factors. One, cost of capital is still reasonably high. So preserving some capital is helpful, particularly with some of the development spend that we've got on at the moment. And just with the quantum of development spend, I think it's also helpful for us to just preserve that capital. So 95% is probably where we'd like to be BAU. So you should probably -- over the next couple of years, probably expect that, that would be around those levels, but we do obviously have some flexibility.

Your next question comes from Richard Jones from JPMorgan.

Adrian, just a question for you. Just in terms of lost rent on development, how does that shift from first half to second half? Can you give us a steer there, please?

The lost rent, we're expecting to be very similar first half, second half. So Chadstone obviously completes the end of March. And so probably a couple of mil drop-off from Chadstone, and then we do have some other couple of smaller reconfigurations that come into the second half. So half-on-half, we should be very similar. So there was about, I think, $14 million for this half, and there'll be maybe -- sorry, $17 million for this half, maybe $18 million for next half. And then as we've guided to, this is really the peak year for loss of rent. Next year, we get down to $25 million. And so hopefully, we start to see some of that unwind of that loss of rent going forward.

Okay. And minimal impact at Galleria?

Yes. No -- it's Peter here, Richard. Yes, minimal impact. The early works that were undertaken includes some demolition, some installation of vertical transport, and the main project will kick off from the first quarter of FY '26.

Okay. I mean the guide looks tough to see how you're not at a minimum at the very top end, if not above it, given you've done $0.756 in the first half and the guide to $0.148 at the top end. It's just hard to reconcile if lost income is not a drag, NOI growth is going to accelerate through the second half. And yes, there's a bit of dilution on sale, but you've also got the full contribution from Joondalup as well. So I don't know, is there anything else we're missing there Adrian?

Yes. It's a fair question, Richard. In terms of the -- I think you've seen this last year as well. We do have a bit of skew in the general operating business from first half to second half. A couple of those, which we've talked about earlier, ancillary income, we tend to earn more of that in the first half really because of the Christmas and Black November trading period, if you like. So things like casual mall leasing, media, car park tend to have a stronger weighting for the first half. The second bit is probably around our property expenses. We tend to just have a slight skew to the second half in property expenses. We are expecting probably some slightly higher vacancy in the second half. Obviously, with Mosaic and some of those stores being handed back, we're just providing a little bit more provision into the second half. And then as you mentioned, transactions that's going to be slightly heavier weighted into the second half. And then obviously, offsetting that is the rent growth that you pointed to earlier. So overall, we're expecting probably at the NPI level, about $15 million kind of skew into the second half. And then on top of that, I guess the other piece is on interest, we do expect the interest line to be slightly heavier in the second half and overhead slightly heavier in the second half as well. So at an FFO level, we're thinking probably closer to $20 million on a skew. When you work that down to an AFFO level, we've also got the back-ended AFFO CapEx going into the second half. So all those things do skew the result to a stronger first half, which means that even though we had a very solid first half, we still expect to be in that range for the full year.

Okay. And just final one. Peter, just in terms of Chadstone and Chatswood Chase, how long do you envisage stabilization to take?

Richard, we typically underwrite some stabilization across both of those projects for 3 years. It starts off as a high percentage of gross rent as a stabilization number and then continually declines as a percentage of gross rent over into 3-year period. So that's generally how we undertake these developments and obviously plan a little more conservatively and hope for better results. And on both of these developments, we would expect that to be the case.

[Operator Instructions] There are no further questions at this time. I'll now hand back to Mr. Huddle for closing remarks.

Look, thank you, everyone, for joining us and your interest in our company, joining us on the call today as well. I know we're catching up with many of you over the next few days. So please we look forward to that and undertaking more questions. For us, we're proud, Adrian and myself to present these results, and we think we're absolutely heading in the right direction. And for us, it's good to see, again, a positive response from the RBA yesterday, which will only benefit our company and our industry moving forward in the future, and physical retail is looking as though it's on an upward swing. I'll leave it with that.