Volvo Car AB (publ.) (VOLCARB) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Well, that's right, multiple awards rolling in, and we're ramping up the EX30 around the world. We're going to speak a lot more about the car during this earnings call. Good morning, and a warm welcome to the presentation of Volvo Car's first quarter financial results. My name is Ron, and joining me this morning is our President and Chief Executive, Jim Rowan, who joins us from our design studio in Shanghai. In fact, Jim is in China this week for the launch of the EX30 during the Beijing Auto Show. In the room with me is our Chief Financial Officer, Johan Ekdahl; and our Chief Commercial Officer, Bjorn Annwall. At the top, Jim, Johan and Bjorn will walk us through our performance during the first quarter and thereafter we'll throw it open for a question and answer round. You can either participate using the chat windows that you should be able to see at the bottom of your screen, or you can simply use the phone lines. I'll come back with more information on how you can participate closer to the Q&A session. But for now, I'll leave the word to you, Jim.

Thanks, Ron. Delighted to be with everyone today, and, good morning. We started the year strong. Strong business performance with continued momentum to lay solid foundations. Double-digit retail sales growth during the quarter with a bulk of that growth coming in the back end of Q1, with March setting new monthly sales record of over 25% year-on-year growth. Solid core EBIT margins at 7.2% versus 6.6% in Q1 last year. We improved the gross margins on fully electric cars which came in at 16% versus 7% in Q1 2023 and the share of EVs and PHEVs came in at 41% with EVs accounting for 21% of that. And the XC60 plug-in hybrid continues to be the most sold PHEV in Europe. We were the third largest EV brand in Europe. This is mainly on the back of the EX40 and the EC40, and of course the new EX30. And in fact, the EX30 was the third highest selling EV in March having only started this retail journey. We started production and customer deliveries of the fully electric MPV, a new EM90 in China. Free cash flow stood at minus SEK 12 billion, which is in line with our internal plans. This is affected by the EX30 inventories as we build up production for that car and inventory for our customers ahead. We secured shareholding support to distribute our -- 62.7% of our ownership in Polestar and we continue to remain focused on cost and ensure robust capital allocation. As we look towards the financials, we reported solid financials for the quarter. Retail sales are up 12% with most of that growth coming towards the end of the first quarter as we set new records in March and we ramp up the EX30. Revenues slightly lower versus last year as a direct result of lower contract manufacturing, and we maintain price discipline overall on the market. But Johan will speak to that a little bit more detail very, very shortly. Our core EBIT margin improved to 7.2% from 6.6% year-over-year. This was due in part to improved gross margins, especially on BEVs and the result of internal efficiency actions, especially on indirect costs. Cash flow for the quarter is down, but this is in accordance to a plan. We increased production and the build-up of the EX30 and inventory to meet the demand for that car. And Q1 is usually the low point for cash flows and our cycle and it will improve in the coming quarters to remain on track for neutral cash flow in 2024. As we said previously, the EX30 is the smallest fully electric premium SUV, but with big potential. The Q1 performance showed the early prospects of this car even though deliveries are still on the ramp-up phase. The car is a profitable growth driver for us as a business with deliveries in Q1 already reaching 14,500 cars and gross margins as planned between 15% and 20%. Thousands of customers across Europe are already behind the wheel of this car, with many more in line as it starts to ramp up. And this will include customers in the U.S., China, South Korea and Canada. And in the coming weeks and months or by the year ahead, we will have this car available in more than 90 countries across the world. I'm so pleased to share that the EX30 continues to win awards. This time, it's the 2024 Urban Car of the Year and the Red Dot, Best Of The Best 2 additional prestige awards that we have won. So in total, the EX30 since it was introduced has received more than 20 awards and we're still counting. Our balanced approach to hybrid and BEV has strengthened our portfolio. We continue to have high share of fully electric and plug-in hybrid sales. And this total reached 41% with EV accounting for 21% of that. This performance on EV demonstrated that we are fully on track to reach our guidance of considerably higher EV share in '24 versus '23. Q1 was also an important quarter in terms of gross margins with a fully electric car reaching 16%, up from 7% in Q1 last year and from 13% in Q4, 2023. This increase was led by the EX30 with gross margins of between 15% and 20%. But also, we improved our margins on EX40 and the EC40 due to lower material costs. And we've taken a balanced approach in our products and the propulsion offerings. We have small SUVs. We have large SUVs, sedans, wagons and MPVs, and that sets up nicely for growth in the premium end of the sector in over 90 countries. We have a balanced approach to propulsion, offering customers plug-in electric hybrids, mild hybrids as well as fully electric cars. And we are focused on the premium segment. Apart from the EX30, the EM90 has already started production, and we've seen the first customers get behind the wheel of that car in China. The EX90 will start production in Charleston in the U.S.A. in the first half of this year. And each of these cars will be launched with new segments which will strengthen our position in the premium electric segment around the world. And with that, I will hand over to Bjorn, who will speak more about this balanced approach in our commercial operations.

Thank you, Jim. And clearly, with a balanced car portfolio, we also have a balanced commercial approach. If you look at our geographical footprint to start with, it's a truly global and balanced situation where almost half of our sales is in Europe, with another 20% each coming from China and from U.S. and Canada. And the remainder, the 15% comes across Latin America, Asia Pacific, Middle East, Africa. So all in all, we're active across 90 countries. We also have a balanced setup in a backbone of physical retail partners that serve our customers across 2,200 retail locations for selling cars and 2,500 service locations for servicing cars. This physical backbone is then empowered through digitization to drive a great omnichannel experience, giving a good customer experience and taking cost out of the system for efficiency. Importantly, there are 10 million Volvos out there in the world today. That car park creates a good foundation for our continued growth. It has an immediate positive impact in that we, of course, sell parts and accessories and service to those Volvo lovers, but it also creates a good foundation for further growth. We will grow both by conquesting new customers, but also remaining the Volvo lovers out there, that we need to retain them. This is a balanced approach. Out of the 10 million cars out there, we actually hit the landmark situation in March where we delivered now 1 million electrified cars, be it plug-in hybrid or BEV. So we have delivered 1 million electrified cars by March this year, which is also a good foundation for the future. Speaking about those electrified cars, you can see that across many markets in Latin America and Asia Pacific, in particular, we are focusing almost fully on those cars. That might be about a bit counterintuitive given that some of those markets are not very mature from an electrification standpoint for the total car market, but they were clearly ripe for premium electrification made by Volvo. This focus has propelled Volvo, Volvo's brand. We have increased market shares and earnings in those countries. We do that by being more distinct. It's right for sustainability, but it also gives a lot of simplification, both commercially and from an industrial point of view. This is a good way forward. And I think it's a testament to the fact that it's a big difference between electrifying the full car market and electrifying a part of the premium car market, which is Volvo's strategy. If you're a 1% premium brand with focus on electrification, electrification is an upside, not a risk. If we turn over to the fully electric cars, here we continue to grow. We grow with 27% year-over-year in quarter 1. And now, as Jim said, 21% of all our deliveries are fully electric cars. And importantly, we're doing this with a value over volume mindset, and we have continued to deliver increasing margins on those cars and met the guidance we provided in terms of EX30 cars between 15% and 20% gross margin. So our balanced car portfolio. On the plug-in hybrid and [ mild ] hybrid side, we continue to see solid demand. And with the love and tender we will give to those cars, we see this as a strong foundation and bridge towards the future where Volvo will be a fully electric company after 2030. On the fully electric side, as Jim already mentioned, EM90 is now starting to ship in China. EX90 will be produced in H1 and shipped in H2, and EX30 has really started off well. It hit a, I would say, inflection point in Europe, where we started really to ship to customers in March, and we shipped almost 8,000 cars in Europe in March. In Asia Pacific and LatAm, that inflection point where we really ramp up deliveries will happen before summer in May, June. In U.S. and Canada will happen after summer in September, October. And in China after launching it in Beijing Auto Show this week, it will start to ship during the summer. So to sum up, we have a balanced car portfolio. We have a balanced commercial approach with a very clear future, premium electrification, but we have a very balanced approach of getting there. So with that, over to Johan Ekdahl for a balanced review of our financial numbers. Johan?

Thank you, Bjorn, and good morning, and some more deep dive into the financials then. Retail sales, 12% increase in the quarter on the back of a still healthy demand and also, of course, the ramp up of the EX30, taking us to being well on track towards our guidance of at least 15% volume growth in the full year '24. Revenue slightly down, 2%, but that is driven mainly by the fact that we have less contract manufacturing to Polestar during the quarter and also some FX headwind on revenue. We will come back with more details shortly, but the underlying operating revenue is increasing. EBIT increased from SEK 6.3 billion to SEK 6.8 billion or from 6.6% to 7.2% during the quarter, which is then driven both, of course, by the increase in volume, but also the fact that we have a lower cost situation in the quarter, both on raw materials, lithium, et cetera, but also on the fixed cost side having effects from the cost actions we took last year going into 2024 with an improved run rate. EBIT, including JVs and associates at SEK 4.7 billion or 5%. We'll come back to more details on EBIT very shortly. Cash flow, minus SEK 12 billion for the quarter, an improvement from the same period last year and also very much due to the ramp up of inventory of EX30 and also normal seasonality affecting working capital and inventory, and that should gradually improve during the remainder of the year to take us to the neutral free cash flow for the full year '24. On revenue, we see a positive impact, of course, from the volume growth. On the sales mix and pricing side, a couple of things, both that we see a little bit of a change in mix, of course, higher BEV share, ramp up of EX30, a lower-priced, smaller car, having an effect on revenue. And also remember from the pricing side, last year in the first quarter year-over-year we were still in a supply-constrained situation with an undersupply of cars. That has been a normalization of pricing since then. But if we look back into the fourth quarter of '23 into the first quarter, we are maintaining very healthy price discipline and don't see any negative pricing effects going into '24. FX headwind on revenue, minus SEK 2 billion, mainly driven by the strengthening of the Swedish SEK. And then the biggest negative impact is the reduce in contract manufacturing in the quarter, minus SEK 4.3 billion to contract manufacturing to Polestar and then also some other offsetting positive effects, mainly driven by parts and accessories business as well as used car sales, taking us down to the SEK 93.9 billion in revenue for the quarter. On EBIT, volume contributing, of course, positively to the EBIT growth. Sales mix and pricing, a lot of the same situation as in revenue. We see year-over-year normalized pricing from Q1 last year, still maintaining good price discipline compared to Q4 last year and also mix shifting towards higher BEV share. EX30 ramping up, still on increasing debt margins but slightly dilutive compared to company margins. FX in EBIT, slightly positive. Other currencies mitigating the negative effects on revenue, and also then positive SEK 1 billion in other mainly consist of 2 things, lower cost raw materials and also fixed cost and also contributions from the sales of parts and accessories and used cars going into then the SEK 6.8 billion in EBIT or 7.2%, an increase from 6.6%, excluding JVs and associates last year. Including JVs and associates, taking the net of all JVs and associates whereby Polestar is the biggest part, but also all other smaller JVs and associates coming in net at minus SEK 2.1 billion, then taking us to SEK 4.7 billion or 5% for the full group. And as a reminder, we are still consolidating 48% of Polestar into our EBIT and the effect of the distribution of shares [Audio Gap] down to 18%, that will happen during the first half of May this year. BEV margins at 16%, 13% in Q4, 9% for the full year '23, 7% the same period last year. So we are on a positive track. And that's really driven by the EX30 ramp up coming in, as we have said, of 15% to 20% gross margin, but also improvements in the previous cars, EC40, EX40 coming in, driven by lower lithium prices still flowing through somewhat into '24 and also a clear focus on the value over volume strategy for those cars, taking us down to the 16%. And just as a short comment on gross margin for the full group, slightly lower than in Q4 mainly then driven by the mix of cars. But also, I would like to emphasize the fact that despite that, we are increasing our EBIT margin to 7.2%, so on the back of the lower cost. Liquidity, we're going out of the quarter with a solid liquidity level and a strong balance sheet, minus SEK 12 billion in free cash flow for the quarter, which is according to plan. We will gradually improve during the year and have the new neutral free cash flow, as we have said, for the full year, where Q1 should be the low point on the ramp up of inventory, mainly driven by the EX30 ramp up then. And if we look a little bit how that plays out over time, where we are now in '24 and '25 on the peak levels of investments, where we do a lot of investments into new technology, manufacturing footprint, new architecture for upcoming cars, et cetera that we should really be able to harvest on then, especially from '26 and forward, where we should see the absolute levels of investments coming down even more so relative to revenue on the back of the growth that we will have, and that should cater for us being able to deliver a strong free cash flow from '26 and forward and navigating this to maintaining a neutral free cash flow for the years '24 and '25 despite the high investments we really do in our future and our transformation. So to summarize the financials, solid core EBIT margin of 7.2% in the quarter, improving BEV margins to 16%, free cash flow according to plan and on track towards neutral in 2024 and a strong balance sheet and liquidity levels into the second quarter. And a little bit more also on how this will play out during 2024. We do see already in the first quarter, as we previously have said, increasing R&D amortizations and lower R&D capitalization affecting our EBIT, and that will also sequentially do so during 2024. We are at high investment levels into new platforms, technology and manufacturing capacity. And the free cash flow should be neutral in '24 and '25. It will improve during the coming quarters. And then we should, as I said, be able to generate a strong positive free cash flow from 2026 and onwards. And on volumes, the full year guidance remain on retail sales growth of at least 15%. BEV share will increase considerably versus 2023, driven mainly by the EX30 ramp-up, and we are at 21% now in the first quarter. And again then from early May, our lower shareholding in Polestar will be reflected into our group EBIT going from 48% to 18% ownership. So with that, I'll leave it back to you, Jim.

Thanks, Johan. So looking ahead, strong balance line up of premium cars and the fully electric range, a plug-in electric hybrid and our mild hybrid range. We'll be ramping up deliveries of the EX30 and the EM90. We're set to introduce a paradigm shift in our technology with the start of production of the EX90 in the first half of this year. And we will remain focused on streamlining our cost base and our capital allocation. We will also continue to prioritize value over volume with a balanced portfolio to meet our business ambitions. To sum up, we have a balanced approach to our strategy that positions us to deliver on our transformational journey. This allows us to react to the changing market demands quicker than many of our competitors. And that balanced portfolio is focused in 5 areas. Product. We have cars in many sizes and segments of 30, 40, 60 and 90 range, SUVs, sedans, wagons and MPVs. And we have these to meet the needs of our various customers around the world. Propulsion. We have mild hybrids, plug-in electric hybrids and fully electric cars. In production, we have manufacturing facilities in every region, Asia, Europe and in the U.S.A. And this aspect has become more important as trade and import tariffs continue to change across the world. On pricing, we have maintained a balanced price discipline across all of our various models. And we have our core ultra and plus variants. Partnerships. We have carefully balanced our investment choices between internal development and building key partnerships with leading technology companies around the world, such as NVIDIA, Qualcomm, Google and Apple. We've also developed a strong retail and service dealership structure in every region with over 2,200 retail partners across the globe. And this balanced approach is a key aspect towards our continued growth. We are laying strong foundations for the future, and it positions us to achieve our ambitions of between SEK 550 billion and SEK 600 billion and an EBIT margin of above 8% in 2026. Looking forward, on September 5, we will also host our Annual Capital Markets Day in Gothenburg with a focus to outline our strategic transformation as well as the journey towards the financial ambitions. We will share in more detail what that consists of in the coming days. And with that, I'll hand back to Ron. Ron?

Well, thank you very much for that, Jim. We are all now set to start the Q&A session. But before I do that, I can see from some of the chats that we're getting from our live stream that there might have been some interruption in the live transmission. Apologies for that. Hopefully, you were able to catch up with the rest of the presentation. But of course, the presentation is available on our website as well, if you were to look at this afterwards. But let's start the Q&A session. You can participate in 2 ways. Either you can use the chat windows that you see at the bottom of your screen, in which case I will then read out the question on your behalf. Otherwise, simply use the phone lines. [Operator Instructions] And I request all our callers to please take one question at a time. So with that, let's take the first question, and let me take the first question that's come in online already. Maybe I'll pass this to you, Jim. The question is that -- it comes in from [ Andy Ron ]. He asks that, we've seen your share price in recent days rally up almost 50% since you announced your fourth quarter results. What is causing that according to you? Is there more headroom for the stock to grow?

Thanks for the question. Let's be honest, this stock price is basically an outflow of performance of the core business. So I actually don't focus on the stock price. I focus on, are we doing the right things? Do we have -- first of all, do we have the right strategy for the business that takes us forward or are we producing the right cars at the right price? Do we have the right talent in the business? Are we building the right technologies that will deliver on that strategy? And ultimately, is this driving performance? And that's really been the focal point for the whole executive management team. If we get that right, if we start to see that performance improve and we're predictable, then I think the stock takes care of itself. But the stock in itself, I really don't pay that attention to that. I pay attention to the overall core fundamentals of the business.

Let's take then our first caller --

Sorry, Ron. I think as well maybe just a follow-up on that. I think one of the things which has became more and more apparent is that we have a very balanced portfolio. We'll probably come on to some of those questions as we get deeper into the call. But this balanced portfolio where we have really good mild hybrid, plug-in electric hybrid and EV technology in various class sizes of 30, 40, 60, 90 SUVs, sedans [ MHEV ], so I think that narrative has become much more important to the investment community in terms of the depth of our technology, the breadth of our network, that we're in 90 countries, that we have a great dealership network and so on. I think all of that has become much more developed, if you like, as a narrative across the investment base.

Let's take the first caller then this morning, and that is Harry Martin from Bernstein. So as I said, please request you to take one question at a time for the benefit of all of us here.

The first question I have is just a little bit of color on the price and the mix. I understand the commentary on price normalization and mix. So can you just confirm you haven't seen any negative pricing impact of rising competition in the context of EVs or inventory builds elsewhere? And then relatedly, on value and volume in the U.S., you talked about gaining share of volumes in the U.S. But if I calculate revenue per car, it's down more than 30% in Q1. So I think it's a related question, but any commentary you have on sort of the mix and the pricing normalization from a U.S. standpoint as well?

Maybe I can take that and start from kind of the overall picture. I think you're right that the biggest driver of that is the mix. In terms of the pure pricing, we are maintaining a very strict kind of value over volume approach, and we haven't seen any drama in changes over the last -- quarter-over-quarter. When it comes to the U.S., and this becomes a bit technical, but clearly, within a certain quarter, [ its ] retail deliveries doesn't translate directly into revenue recognition. You have different channels, right, where you have rental channels and some of the leasing channels where the revenue recognition rather than coming at the point of where we deliver the car, it comes over the duration of that contract or when we sell the used car. And quarter-to-quarter the channels can fluctuate a bit. So I wouldn't read in too much in that, and we haven't made any strategic big shifts in how we see the channels, if you look at the full year. So I wouldn't read too much into that specific quarter in the U.S.

And Harry had another follow-up question. It was on the value over volume, revenue per car down. Maybe you touched upon it slightly, but if there's more color? Johan, if you want to put on that?

No, but I think, as Bjorn says, it's a mix of things, and it's -- to some extent, it can be variations between quarters, exactly as Bjorn said, different sales channels that has a little bit different time phasing when it comes to revenue recognition, et cetera. What we can say is that -- we can firmly say that we don't see any price deterioration. If you look at the end of '23 into '24, the walk in the presentation is more year-over-year Q1 over Q1, where we still had an imbalance in supply and demand in Q1, 2023. So I'll just sort of reemphasize what Bjorn was saying.

Harry, do you have any follow-up for us?

If I could just have a quick follow-up on the margins as well. You gave good color on the 16% EV gross margin, but the 25% gross margin in the -- from the hybrid business is also very strong. So I wondered if you could just touch on the outlook for the margin on that side of the portfolio in the midterm and put that into context of how you think about margin parity over the longer term as well?

Yes, I can start, if you look at it a little bit more short term first. Again, we have increased our BEV margins to 16%, both driven by lower raw materials and also EX30, of course ramping up. If we look a little bit ahead into '24 on the BEV margins, of course, we will ramp up the car EX30 with higher volumes and which will also lead to, let's say, a little bit more of a mixed spec level. So I don't foresee any huge increases in the BEV margins in short term, but we should definitely maintain on the good levels where we are right now. And as you say, on the non-BEV cars, we do see still a healthy demand and good margins. Mixes might vary quarter-over-quarter to some extent, but we don't see any major margin deterioration short term.

I hope that answers your questions, Harry. Let's take the next question that comes in online. And there are 2 questions comes in. This is from Felix Page, Autocar. And probably I'll turn to you, Jim, for both of these questions. Firstly, Felix asks, are you still confident you can achieve 50% EV sales by end of next year and go all electric by 2030?

Let me take the EX30. So we started the EX30 sales just -- really it came into full production in the back end of the first quarter. And we saw immediately the sales of that car be [ propelled ] to be the third best-selling EV in Europe behind the Tesla Y and the Tesla 3. So that's a great start for that car. And demand is strong, as Bjorn has alluded to. So that's -- and we'll see then in the coming years -- for the rest of this year, of course, the whole '25, we'll see full production of the EX30. We also have the EX90 which will come into production this year, and we have the EM90. So 3 brand-new cars, all in full production this year and all through 2025, in addition to the refreshed EX40 and EC40. And we'll announce more EV cars at the back end of this year, which will start production in sales in 2025 as well. I'm confident that there is enough -- and the premium sector as well, remember, is very different from mass market. Then the premium sector you need to remember that you're selling to a customer or a household that very often has more than one car. They may have a ICE car and they may then want to have a PHEV or a [ full ] BEV car. We're also selling to customers in the EV space and the premium sector, they very, very often have their own [ charging ] infrastructure. And so the barriers to adoption become much less because they can charge at home. When you wrap all that together, full sales of EX30 and full production by '25, the refresh of the [ 40 ] and the C40, the new EX90, new EM90 and the brand new car in '25 and that we're in a premium sector, which is still growing in the EV space, then I think it's more than possible for us to reach that ambitious target of 2025 at 50%. And then you go look on to 2030, we've got another 5 years then between then in 2030. Now we know that legislation is changing in Europe, let's say, if we pick Europe, 2035 that you won't be able to sell [ ICE ] car by 2035. People won't make that decision. This is a big purchase for people, quite often the second biggest purchase after their home. They won't make the decision whether they buy a BEV or wanted to buy a ICE car on December 31, 2034. They'll make that decision much, much sooner. And in the meantime, in the next 4, 5, 6 years, you're going to see infrastructure massively improve. You're going to start to see energy density within batteries improved. You're going to see research driving down cost of battery. You're going to see more competition in the battery space. You're going to see new investments and new innovation all around. Because let's be honest, the innovation, the investment, the engineering, the development, the research has been done on EV. It has not been done on internal combustion engines. And when you add all of that together, I think you then start to see a really clear path towards a fully electric future in that time span of 2030. Less servicing cost for customers, less heat, vibration and noise and zero tailpipe emissions. Put all that together and I think you'll see that being a very achievable future.

I'd just add one thing, and that's, clearly, it's 6, 7 years until 2030, and we have the balanced approach. Then while -- when we're there, 2 things matters. What's the size of the BEV market and what's our relative performance. And when it comes to the size of the BEV market, we can debate whether it's going to be 30% of the market or 50% and 80%. The only thing I know that the share of the premium BEV market is going to be higher than the share of the total market, and we are in the premium market. Then when it comes to relative performance, we're 1% brand. So that's really what matters. It doesn't really matter if it's 30% or 50% or 80%. What matter is how well we play in that part of the market. Looking at our relative performance right now, I see us massively increasing market share on the BEV side, and I see us delivering stronger gross margin, and I don't see any players out there who at least announced gross margins on BEVs that are in a different level than we have. So I think we are on the lead on both getting the profitability out of the cars and the market share. So relative performance is what matters for a small player, and there we performed.

And Felix had another follow-up. And I'll again turn to you for this one, Jim. You said a very product mix is fundamental to your strategy. When will we start to see the sedan, wagon ranges going electric?

So we don't release that. Obviously, we're going to be releasing when we have a cycle plan that takes into account different parts of the world, the different models and shapes and sizes and price points, customer demographics and the changing customer sentiment. And we put all of that thinking into a range plan and our cycle plan strategy, and we develop cars. And then when the time is right, we announce those cars to the public. So that is a wait-and-see question.

Let's take another caller then. And this is Erik Golrang from SEB. And again, I request you to please take one question at a time, please.

First question on production, [indiscernible] vehicles in Q1. Is that a pace you expect to keep here in the near term? Or any element of sort of initial stockpiling or anything of the EX30?

I mean the short answer is EX30 specifically has started its production life. We're ramping up through the gears, so to speak, on that. We have high ambitions for that car. Obviously, that's going to play a big part of our growth in EV as we go forward. So you'll see that production ramp up through the course of the next few months as we develop more markets for that. We should be in about over 90 countries with the EX30 by the end of this year. So yes, so that will continue to develop and increase in terms of its output from the factories.

And maybe I can just add a nuance to that as well. I mean, clearly, now the EX30 is produced in China, and the major market is -- right now is Europe, and that's a 3-month lead time. So of course, that's a pipeline with working capital that you need to build up. Then during next year, we will reallocate production to Europe -- localize the production to [ gain ] in Europe. And of course, that will change the kind of working capital situation for EX30 during next year.

And from a working capital perspective, we will have -- I mean, we are at a buildup of inventory during Q1, and that will be balancing out during the year. So we expect, as we have said, neutral free cash flow for the year, which also, of course, includes a balance between production and sales. But the production is on full speed, and we are fully normalized in that respect. But of course, we need to balance that as we [ grow ] to match the growth in sales.

Erik, if we still have you on the phone line, if you have any follow-up questions?

Yes, please. On the R&D side, in the P&L, I think we saw amortization come up here now. What's the further impact from EX90 coming into production? How big of an initiative of a further step up in R&D, in the P&L that we see here in Q2 to Q4?

We have seen an increase in amortization already in the first quarter, which we also have been able to balance very nicely because we have still increasing profitability margins. There will be some sequential increase of amortization during the year. We will not -- we don't guide on specific numbers for that. But again, as we also see a balance in our cost structure despite that fact that we increase the R&D and amortization in the first quarter, we are able to increase the profit margins, but it will not necessarily be exactly linear during the year. But there are -- we have an effect in Q1. There will be some sequential effects remaining during the remainder of the year.

Erik, hopefully, that answers all your questions. Let's take another caller. And this one is -- this one comes in from HSBC. Pushkar, please go ahead with your question.

My first question is about the phasing of your profitability margin. So you were at 7.2x JVs in the first quarter. But as this higher -- the R&D capitalization effect gets closer towards normalizing, I think the profitability should go down. So if you could talk to -- about the phasing of your profitability margin through the year? And maybe also how you see that developing towards the 8% target by 2026?

Yes, sure. I can start. Yes, as you say, we are increasing profit margins in the first quarter, and that is also including an increase in amortization. That will gradually come in during the year. But of course, we will also have a growth. We are growing at 12% in the first quarter, and we said we will grow at least 15% in sales volumes for the full year and BEV margins have also improved. So there are things going in different directions. We are very confident in the 8% in 2026. It will not necessarily be a fully linear journey quarter-over-quarter. But so -- and as you say, there will be some further amortization and depreciation coming in, especially during the second half of this year. But I think we are at a good starting point, and we are at a good run rate, both from a growth and cost perspective, and we're also continuously, of course, working with our cost structure. So I think that there will be things that go in both directions. I will not be that specific on exactly margins quarter-over-quarter. But I'll say it -- we are on the right track, but it will not necessarily be exactly linear.

Pushkar, any final question from you before we move on?

Yes, just on your BEVS, right? So if -- I think you confirmed that the EX90 is on track, right, the second quarter production. But just if you could give us some color on the orders of these 3 new BEVs? So the EX30, 90 and EM90, maybe if you can give some color on the orders? And just on the EX90, is there any reason why their gross margin can't be around the 20% level? I mean you've talked about the EX30 gross margins but not for the EX90. So if that's something that you can talk to -- about?

Let me take that. So in terms of -- we won't get gross margins for every single individual product that we produce. So we wanted to, as we embarked upon the EV journey, if you will, we know there was a real interest in the markets in terms of how was our EV gross margin compared to our general gross margin. So we split that out. I think we're still one of the few car companies around the world with mix technologies that splits out EV margins as a total. The only other addition to that is we -- again, we knew it was going to be a very important proof point to the markets that we could see a small SUV, fully electric, that could be -- that could generate good gross margins. So we chose to give a range on that between 15% and 20% on the SUV. And generally speaking, that's -- the smaller cars are always harder to get a better gross margin than the bigger cars, historically at least. But we wouldn't give gross margin percentages for every single model that we build. And similarly, we don't give guidance on volumes for every single model that we build either. So I don't know if Johan wants to add any more to that, but that's pretty much the guidance criteria that we have at the moment.

Yes, I can just echo what you're saying, and we are at an improving journey on the BEV margins. I think EX30 being a smaller car with 15% to 20% gross margin is really an important proof point. But as you say, we don't guide on specific margins for specific products, but we should maintain a good gross margin level on the EVs for the remainder of the year and going into next year.

And maybe on the demand side and the order side, I mean, EX30, as I said in the presentation, we have ramped up Europe, but the ramp up in other regions is still to come. And as a broad guidance and kind of where we see the demand and expectations on it, I mean I said Europe is 45% of our overall retail deliveries. It's probably going to over-index a bit for Europe. It's a car that really fits the Europe perspective. It will also over-index our belief based on early demand in this kind of Asia Pacific and LatAm part of our business, probably slightly -- I mean, index was slightly under-indexed in the U.S. as we -- and then in China, we're going to play it really as a fully premium electrified car and as part of the kind of premium electrification journey we need to do in China. And given the competitiveness in the Chinese market and the lack of profitability in that market, there is where we really value over volume and really have the long-term in mind to kind of position Volvo as the premium fully electric brand. So there volume is less of the priority. It's more how we position Volvo right for the future.

Hopefully that answers all your questions, Pushkar. Another question comes in, and this is on the chat. This is from Jose Asumendi from JPMorgan. It's a similar theme around BEV underlying profitability. Maybe I'll look at you for this one, Johan. What are the drivers to improve the profitability of electric cars? And should we expect you can improve the gross margins, thanks to lower raw material costs, even going further?

Yes. There are, of course, a number of building blocks. One is, of course, raw materials. Now we are at quite low levels on raw materials. We have seen some flow through into 2024 as well compared to last year. I don't expect any major upside from raw materials, more that we are, of course, working on hedging, et cetera, in order to secure attractive raw material levels for the future. And then it's really -- so that is a little bit short term. I don't expect any major increases in the BEV gross margins during this year, but we should definitely maintain at a good level where we are. And then going forward, of course, when we talk about cost parity and into the future, it's really with each new generation of architecture for the electric cars being more efficient. I mean a lot of the things that we're now currently investing in and the reasons why we have high investments now in like '24, '25 is really things like, say, mega-casting as one example for parts of the body structure, battery, cell-to-body technology, in-house e-motors and inverters, et cetera. And those things will make each new generation of architecture even more cost competitive per car going into the mid-decade and beyond. So it's both a combination of technology and efficient architecture and ensuring that we have raw materials at attractive prices. So I hope that answers your question.

Let's take another caller then, and this is Hampus from Handelsbanken. And again, just if I kindly remind you to take one question at a time, please, for the benefit of all of us here.

Well, I have a question on the ramp up of the NOVO factory and if I understand you correctly, it will start production in 2026. And I'm thinking here with your growth target this year and perhaps continued growth also in 2025 and the 50% target on BEV, how much is -- could NOVA be a restriction for you guys not being up and running in 2025? And is the 2020 -- is NOVO also restricting your guys for launching maybe battery electric cars in the faster speed than you're doing?

Thanks for that question. As a fact [ note ], as designed, the ramp up of the NOVO factory and the technology and the battery cells and packs that come from that factory are aligned with the new product, introduction of specific products. And they are geared towards the precision of those both coming together, both the design and development of the product and the design and development of the battery cells. Absolutely on track. Everything is as it should be. The cars that we will announce in 2025 won't use and were never designed to use the sales from NOVO. So that is not a specific concern for us at all at this point in time. The NOVO factory is ramping up as it should. We're a lot bit ahead of schedule on the build on that, which is nice. The technology is coming together pretty nice. The development of the product that those first battery sales will go into is absolutely on plan as well. So that is all very much aligned in accordance with our planning.

And a second question for me is -- it's kind of on the EX30 presentation and when you go into tractors now, and the same goes for the EM90, and is very short lead time between launch and delivery, while we've seen a more extended one on the EX90. I know you've been working on the [ central computer ]. But is it fair to assume that the things that you sold in the EX90 that when launching, for instance, the EX60 will use the similar technology, so we won't expect this type of a longer lead times, we should be more looking at the lead times we've seen on the EX30 and the EM90 when you launch new models?

That's a fantastic question. And I'm really pleased you asked that question because it's one of the big messages that we want to make sure that we land with investment community and beyond. You're absolutely right. When we delayed the EX90, part of the delay for that was to make sure that the follow-on products and the follow-on software could be reused to a very high level. And that's exactly what's going to happen. If you remember the graph that Johan showed, we're at the peak of that investment and then we harvest those investments that we've made over the course of the next 5, 6, 7 years and over the course of the next products. So what we'll see is -- [ will ] be a reuse of really robust code that we'll have written and tested in the EX90 and then we'll see that being able to be ported into new products, which means the development work on that is much less costly and much more robust, which gets to the second part of your question. Then we can make sure that the distance between launching those cars and actually getting those cars into the hands of customers is much more in line with what we'd like to see a couple of months versus 1 year or more. So great question, and I'm really pleased you asked that.

Hopefully, that answers all your questions then, Hampus. We have a few minutes remaining, so I just need to go through a few more callers and questions. The next caller is [ Sian Keegan ], calling in from Goldman Sachs.

Now firstly, could you give us your latest insights into how the direct sales model is performing in the markets where you have introduced it? And is there any quantification you can provide with respect to the improvement in pricing as a result of this direct sales model?

Bjorn?

That's a good question and one that we're working with a lot. So clearly, we have used the U.K. as the first market to go into a full direct model. And that has been a key learning journey for us. On the one hand, I think one key conclusion you can draw is that when the normal consumer follows the normal process, this seamless omnichannel approach drives both great customer experience and great efficiency for both us and the retailer and for the customer. So that's the good news. I think the key learning is that the normal consumer is not behaving in a normal way. It is a very important purchase for a consumer and things happening. You want to change things. And are their retail partners have a great ability to handle that flexibility? That's very important for the customer. So what we're working with in the U.K. is to find the right balance there on what things do you kind of automate in doing one thing in one way, what things do we take over to handle as an OEM and what things remain with the retail partners. And we work with our retail partners to really find the right balance there. So that's important. And I think this transparent price and having price -- knowing that the price that we're announcing is the price that I'm going to get regardless to what retailer I'm going, that's something that customers value, our retailers value. So that's an advantage with that model. But we really need to make sure that we find the right balance on how we're dividing concrete work between us and the retail partners, and we continue to work on that. The biggest lever when it comes to driving efficiency and [indiscernible] to the bottom line is really in Europe to work on our network restructuring that we have announced 1, 2 years out and working to make sure we have the right amount of retailers and the high-performing retailers in our network. And then we're going to continue to use digitization to really drive further efficiencies. But this black and white thing between a classic wholesale and a pure online, that's not at all where we are. We believe in a more hybrid model in between we'll drive the efficiencies, and that's where we're going to continue to work on.

We need to move on and just take a couple of last questions that's coming online just now. Maybe I'll stay with you, Bjorn. This question -- I don't see a name here, but I'll still take this question. Are you surprised that the XC60 was the highest selling plug-in hybrid car in Europe during Q1? What does it say about the customer demand for PHEVs in general now?

I was not surprised at all because it was also the best-selling plug-in hybrid in Europe in quarter 4. It has been that now for, I think, 6 months in a row. So I think it shows exactly what Jim was talking about, that people really see the advantages of fully electric cars. But there are still a range excited, the fast-charging infrastructure is not built out. This takes time to learn a new behavior. And with the XC60 plug-in hybrid now with this 3-layer battery generation, we have actually a very good distance on it. It can drive 70, 80 kilometers in pure electric mode. And for consumers who can charge overnight at home or at work, that's typically what you need for your daily commute. And we see that from the statistics, people are using those cars more as fully electric car than as ICE cars. More than 50% of the energy consumption in those cars comes from charge electricity. So it is a very, very strong [ resolution ] that Volvo consumers are truly valuing and that's why we, I mean, are continuing to give love and tender to these cars because they're not just a bridge for this year, they're a bridge for a longer period of time.

I think we've almost run out of time. Maybe the last question I'll throw that to you, then Jim. During the presentation, you've laid a lot of emphasis on Volvo's balanced approach. Is this a new strategic direction of the company going forward?

No, it's not a new direction. This has been part of our strategy for quite some time. I think what's new is -- I don't think that we have really pulled that out to explain in a more comprehensive and clear narrative that in order to be successful in a very disruptive industry or an industry which is turbulent. Remember, we are selling cars from Tokyo to Tallahassee and everywhere in between. We're selling in over 90 countries. We're selling it to 16-year old to 70-year olds, and there's a very different demand because we're selling to countries and cities and villages in times that have a very different infrastructure in terms of charge technology. And we want to make sure that we can satisfy the needs of all of those customers. And a lot of those customers have been loyal customers for many, many years. So that gets us back to this balanced portfolio. The products that we have, the 30s, the 40s, the 60s, the 90s, the sedans, the wagons, the SUVs, we have all of that, and we can satisfy those customer demands. Propulsion technologies, mild hybrids, plug-in electric hybrids, really good plug-in electric hybrids that we've had for some time where it's tuned in and people can trust them. Very, very robust technology, of course, fully EVs. And then in production, we're seeing trade tariffs change around the world. So the fact that we have production in Asia and Europe and America, and that we can modulate that and be very flexible around the production requirements, and then the partnerships and pricing. On the partnerships, that's one of the things which we'll talk about more in the Capital Markets Day, how we have been extremely mindful and choiceful in what we decide to develop in-house, be that e-motors or inverters, or in partnership with the likes of Google or NVIDIA or even NOVO or even [ Northvolt ] in that sense. And that strategic approach towards getting the very best of technology through those partnerships and building the very best of technology that we think is differentiated. You put all of that together and you stand on the 4 pillars that Volvo has stood on for 100 years: safety; sustainability; human-centric technology; and Scandinavian design. And it's that combined strategy on those -- on that foundation, I think, that differentiates us and is allowing us to grow. We still have much more to do. We need to get our margins up, for sure. We need to get cost out of the business. And all of those plans are already well in place. So that would be my ending narrative, I guess, today.

All right. Thank you, Jim, Bjorn, Johan. Thanks for your time, and thank you to everyone who joined in live. Remember the entire presentation is available on the website. And apologies if we couldn't take all your questions, but you can reach out to the media relations team for press queries and -- or you can reach out the Investor Relations team for questions that you want to direct more to them. But from all of us here, it's a wrap. Have a great day ahead. Good bye.