Vukile Property Fund Limited (VKPPF) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Good morning, all, and thank you very much for joining us for our pre-close for our first half FY '26 numbers, covering the actuals from April to August of 2025. And as I said, that is the first half of our FY '26. As you'll recall, at year-end results, we spoke about sort of our initial focus being a strong operational intensity as well as integrating the assets from Spain. And I'm very pleased to report that up to now, we've had a very strong operational start to the year with significant progress in the integration of the newly acquired assets in Iberia. Both the Spanish and Portuguese portfolios delivered outstanding metrics, which Alfonso will take you through shortly. And very pleasingly to say that the Portuguese assets have now been fully integrated into Castellana's processes and data management, allowing the Castellana team to start implementing their expertise in value-add asset management initiatives. So sort of that inward focus for the first 6 months has really started to pay dividends. And I think we are now ready to start seeing the value unlock coming through in the Portuguese portfolio. Just to recap, we acquired Forum Madera for EUR 63 million. That was at a yield of 9.5%. That was in April 2025. And importantly, the message is that we remain open for business with an early-stage pipeline of deal opportunities. I think the emphasis there is early stage. We are starting to see some opportunities. We're looking and evaluating. However, we will always remain very disciplined in our capital allocation and our strategy to do deals that, as you hear me always say, are both strategically aligned and financially accretive. And in fact, for those golf fans amongst us, feeling a little bit like the American team after the Ryder Cup last night. We put in a great, great effort on trying to buy an asset recently in Spain, we were outbid. And sometimes it's actually okay to come second. Our team are very disciplined in terms of making -- staying focused on the pricing we're prepared to pay. The bidding went beyond where we felt it was appropriate, given the value-add opportunities that we saw in the asset. And we really are quite happy and disciplined to leave our pricing where it was and get outbid. That being said, we are starting to get encouraged by some early-stage pipeline deals. And I think the message is we are still open for business and looking for new opportunities in Iberia. On the South African side, the portfolio metrics that Itu will take you through remain top tier. NOI growth projections are currently running ahead of budget. And that's really driven by some good top line growth, but I think maybe even more importantly, very targeted management of cost efficiencies and additional solar PV coming through, which is helping in the budgets. Itu will take us through that in more detail. On the capital markets front, we had very strong support in the local debt capital markets. We raised ZAR 500 million bond, which was 6x oversubscribed with 21 investors participating and achieved our lowest margin since launching our DMTN program in 2012. And overall, very pleased to say GCR upgraded our credit rating to AA+ with a stable outlook. So from an introduction point of view, very, very satisfied with where we are. Itu will now take us through the review of the South African portfolio in a bit more detail.

Yes. Thank you, Laurence. Good morning to everyone. Just looking at this first slide. Overall, I think the operating environment over the past 5 months has really been strong. We've seen strong overall trade within the portfolio across all of the segments and not just in the township and rural portfolio. We continue to see very strong tenant demand, and I'll take you through some of the key deals that we've done over the past 5 months. And I think one of the other key focus areas for the team is continued focused cost management. We've made some significant further traction on cost containment. So overall, I think a really pleasing first 5 months of the financial year. With regards to our NOI, we're forecasting an increase in our net operating income from a budget of 9.1%, now to a forecast of 10.1% and a like-for-like growth in the portfolio of 8%, primarily driven by additional solar PV that we've executed on ahead of schedule. We're seeing significant traction on a project that we're doing around utility meters and tariff optimization. So that's starting to deliver some positive results that flows straight through to the bottom line. We've seen very strong demand for space. I'll tell a little bit later around our new deals that are trending higher than our closing deals and our budgets. So really strong performance in terms of new lets within the portfolio. And then also some very good performance that's coming through from Mall of Mthatha. That's also added to the upswing relative to the budget. With regards to trade, the portfolio continues to see an improvement in trade with growth across all of the segments. So township and rural up 7.6% and 4.6%, respectively. The overall portfolio has grown by 5.3%. With regards to our vacancies, they are stable at 1.8% as of August 25. One looks at our rural and value center portfolio, those 2 portfolios are effectively fully let. Our rental reversions continue to be positive for a fourth year running at 1.6% positive with 83% of all of the deals that we've done. We've done north of 200 deals. So very good traction on either flat or positive. I remain confident that our reversions when I'm looking at our forecast for the rest of the year will trend towards the budgeted 4% mark, which for me would be in line with the expected trading density growth of the portfolio. With regards to cost containment, our numerous cost containment initiatives that we try and drive that are sustainable will decrease our cost-to-income ratio to 13% in the year ahead. Very good traction that we're seeing on collection rates. They continue to be above 100%. And we've also seen a notable decrease in arrears, 35% in our overall and outstanding balance at 36%. Our national, mid-tier and government tenants are all trading phenomenally well and ahead in terms of payments of rentals. An area that we continue to monitor is the SMMEs. That's slightly sticky in terms of but not a significant challenge when you look at the broader context. Also happy with our rent to sales, our footfalls and escalations. On the top right-hand side of this tenant retention. You'll see that our tenant retention has decreased slightly. This has been due to strategic replacements that we've executed on in the past 5 months. We've replaced 2 Pick n Pays with the Shoprite, and we've also replaced a number of big box Woolworths stores with Boxer and Dis-Chem. And I'll speak a little bit to all of that letting and also the result and positive swing that, that's going to generate for our NOI looking ahead. So overall, I think on this first slide, really happy and pleased with the first 5 months performance. All of our key operating metrics are trending in the right direction and really strong performance when I look at my projected NOI. Thank you. Can we move on to the next one. So in terms of category performance and how the portfolio is trading, overall portfolio is up 5.3% in terms of trading density growth. A key significant part of our portfolio, which represents 53% of our GLA, which is our top 10 tenants, grew just under 6%. Groceries, which account for 22% of our GLA were up by 4.9% and also quite notably from a significantly high base, which we saw come through in the previous financial year of 7.1%. The fashion category, 23% of our GLA is up 3.9% and really pleased that 13 out of the 14 key categories that we monitor have shown an increase both on trading density and overall turnover. So really encouraged by the performance that we're seeing across our portfolio. Right. Thank you. Next slide, please. We move on to the next slide. Thanks. Yes. So just looking at footfall and sales in terms of trade on the ground. As I mentioned, the township, rural, urban and commuter as well as the value centers are all showing positive trading density growth. The township and rural space continues to outperform both in terms of growth in trading densities and in footfall. The footfall is in line with where we were at this point last year, but a notable increase that we're seeing is in our CBD commuter malls increasing by 2.9% and also in the urban portfolio that is up by 4%. On this slide, we've highlighted the key malls and the segments where you're seeing an environment of continued increase in terms of spend per head at our malls. And then on the graph on the slide, you'll notice that for the past 5 months, both in terms of sales and footfall, we've trended above 100%. So you're seeing an overall improvement in terms of how we're trading and also how our shoppers are frequenting our malls. Thank you. We can move on to the next one. In terms of leasing activity, also one of the key highlights of the past 5 months, really, really strong leasing activity. We've concluded just under 300 deals, 207 of those have been renewals. Out of the 88 new contracts that we've concluded relative to the closing rental, we've seen an upswing of 14.7% in terms of new rentals. A key driver to that has really been a project that we've executed on that has looked to improve on some primary and secondary anchors. I've spoken to the 2 Pick n Pays that we replaced over the past 5 months. And also, we've introduced Dis-Chem into a lot of our rural and township properties, a strategy that they're now pursuing. And we've also introduced the Boxer in Pinecrest. So you've seen quite a bit of tenant rejigging around our anchors, and that's resulted in a significant upswing on new contracts relative to closing rentals. Overall, we're seeing kind of net positive and strong demand from a majority of our national tenants. Key deals that we've done have been in the fashion, grocery and also the Home Depot category. And then maybe just to close in terms of an update on our side, really happy with the portfolio. The portfolio is in good shape. We continue to see strong support, strong demand from our tenants that is sustaining our high occupancy rate. Key focus area remains being cost containment, and we'll continue looking to drive value there, but not just once of value, sustainable value. And we're very comfortable to look to replace tenants to drive growth, but also to make sure that the tenant mix within our portfolio continues to be of high quality. So really happy with the overall trade of the portfolio in the first 5 months. With that, I'd like to then pass on to Alfonso.

Thank you, Itu. Good morning, everyone. Greetings from Madrid and hoping that you all are as happy as I am that Europe managed to finally win the Ryder Cup despite a tough evening yesterday. So well, thank you for joining on this pre-close presentation of our half year results of our FY 2026. So first slide, yes, there we go. Economy keeps leading the European countries in terms of growth. At the end of second quarter, GDP growth is forecasted now to be 2.4% to end this 2025 and around 2% for 2026. Good employment growth, consumer demand backed by family savings and decreasing interest rates with minimum debt in the form of mortgages are the main drivers of positive private consumption driving GDP growth. On top, our most powerful industry, tourism is setting record after record, helping even more our economy and spending power. Most important, up to July, expenditure of tourists has grown by 7.2% compared to last year that already grew to a record of 12%. We remain very optimistic that these tailwinds are favoring us to keep confident to close the period in a very good shape and remain optimistic for the rest of the year. Next slide, please. As per the Portuguese, it's also showing very positive data, although somehow more impacted by the U.S. trade policy, GDP growth has been reviewed downwards, however, keeping very healthy figures of around 2% for the next 2 years. Very similar to Spain with still high family savings and decent debt and with tourism rocketing as one of the main drivers of the economy, it is expected for private consumption to grow more going forward, keeping the good levels of expenditure, which are indeed good news for our shopping center sales figures. We remain optimistic that these also tailwinds for -- in both countries, Spain and Portugal are favoring to keep the confidence to close the period in a very good shape, and we remain optimistic for the rest of the year. Next slide, please. So moving directly to our main metrics of footfall and sales. Our portfolio keeps the tendency started 4 years ago after the pandemic, and we keep seeing very healthy growth rates. All the excellent and consistent work delivered at asset level by our hard-working team is definitely paying off. Up to July, both portfolios in Spain and Portugal grew by 3%, coming from record figures already in year 2024. All assets beating the previous marks, but a special mention to El Faro that after the completion and opening of the Hipercor repurposing project, the shopping center has seen an increase in footfall of 30%, 3-0 percent year-to-date compared to last year. Bonaire is the only one asset in the Iberian portfolio, not yet in positive growth in footfall, given that the parking lot is not yet opened 100%. Only 50% of it has been completed -- completely renovated and that is still an impediment for the center to grow on visits as during the weekends, there is not enough space to park at certain times of the day. The team is positive that visits will start growing as soon as the parking becomes available. In any case, although visits are growing, those visitors coming are spending more. We are seeing a 4.6% growth in Bonaire sales up to July FY 2026. When looking at turnovers on the rest of the portfolio, our tenant sales have grown 5.1% year-to-date until July, with all categories growing substantially, especially culture, media and technology with an outstanding 17% or F&B with a 9.9%. Spanish portfolio grew more during the period with 5.7%, however, Portugal also grew a nondespicable 4.1%. Next slide, please. So very active leasing activity during the first half of the year. Up to August, we have transacted 170 leasing deals divided in Spain with 63 renewals with a positive reversion rate of 2.3%. And let me stress again, as I usually do, that this is excluding CPI as indexation will come in due course during the year, mainly in January and 75 new contracts with an increase of 3.6% with respect to the previous rent in those units. In Portugal, 21 renewals so far with a very positive reversion of 4.2%. But the most notable event in leasing has been the new lettings taking place now that our team has been hands on and managing directly, achieving an increase of 18.3% on the 11 transactions done in the period up to August. Next slide, please. And looking at the other fundamental operating metrics, once again, we are keeping market-leading figures for the period in occupancy and rent collection rates with figures close to 100%, they give a solid argument of performance and on top, a lot of certainty to our cash flows. We are very positive that now the integration of the Portuguese portfolio is completed and that our teams are now at full speed managing that those figures of occupancy and especially rent collection will improve closer to Spanish levels that have already been managed for more than 7 years. This is the Iberian update from my side. Thank you very much for your attention.

Alfonso, thank you very much. And just moving on to our prospects and a summary. As you can hear, really, we are all in a very positive and upbeat mode in terms of the start to the financial year and a very strong '26 very robust operating numbers, which you've just been through now. And I think we are confident that, that will continue into the remaining of the financial year. Importantly, as I've said, the successful integration is now driving momentum. The new assets in Spain and Portugal are fully embedded in our operations and systems. You've seen the positive reversions on new lettings in Portugal. I think that's testament to that now being the -- our team taking over the Portuguese assets. And that creates a very solid foundation for further growth opportunities. As I said, we'll continue to remain open for business, but very disciplined in what we are going to invest in. It's got to be in line with our strategy. And importantly, it's got to be financially accretive and the right deal to be done. If we participate in processes, which is something we haven't done historically, the market at the moment is requiring people to be in processes. We will do so, but remain very disciplined. And as I said, there are times in coming second is not a bad thing. It just means that we are using our processes and our discipline very, very correctly as evidenced by that deal I spoke about earlier. In terms of outlook, we are very confident based on our performance in the first 5 months that we will achieve our guidance of at least 8% of growth in both FFO per share and dividend per share. And off the back of the positive update from Itu in terms of being ahead of budget, Alfonso, we will look to update the market with revised guidance at our interim results in November 2025. And really, the difference being I'd like to get another 2 months under our belt before we give updated guidance to the market. So please look out for that when we report on November 26. But all in all, I can leave investors with a message that we've had a great start to the financial year, very happy with where the business is positioned and looking forward to good growth coming off a strong base historically and looking to take that forward into years subsequent to FY 2026. So with that, I'd like to hand over to the investors for questions.

There is a question from Suren Naidoo of Moneyweb. You have addressed it, but perhaps you'd like to add 1 or 2 final comments. Suren's question is that considering the better-than-expected performance, with example, in SA above 10%, et cetera, and the comments at the end of the presentation, is that an indication of higher-than-expected guidance for FY '26? Do you have a range perhaps for the market?

Suren, thank you for the question. Look, as I said, with how the business has been trading, I think the first 5 months have been great. I'd like to just get those next 2 months numbers in, and we'll then give the market a tighter guidance range in November. So yes, I think let's just wait for then. But at the moment, all things are trending in the right direction. We are very positive. Thank you.

Thanks, Laurence. Next question is from Alastair Anderson of Property Flash. It's a question for Alfonso. What do you foresee for Spain's festive season and shopping in terms of trade and trends?

Thank you, Alistair, for the question. I mean, all looks very positive going forward because of what I explained related to how the Spanish families, especially are spending these days. What we see on the ground is, as usual, restaurants fully booked, hotels fully booked as well and there are a lot of people at the street. So I mean, our expectations for the holiday season in December, it's growth definitely. But I cannot really give you growth rates right now, but definitely very positive.

Thanks, Alfonso. Next question from Evan Jankelowitz of Sesfikile Capital. Can you put some more color perhaps around the relatively low collection rates in Portugal?

Sure, Evan. Thanks. I mean you have to -- everybody has to understand that these assets have been under managed for a long while, okay? And now that -- I mean, it took -- it always takes some time for our -- for the teams to get on with the asset and to understand perfectly all the situations. And the fact that those rent collections in Portugal are lower is because, well, those assets never had a team like ours on top of them. And we have already improved those ratios. But what I'm foreseeing is to see those ratios to look much closer to what we have in Spain. As I said, I mean, we've been managing the assets for a long 7 years already and the Portuguese is only for a couple of months. So stay with us, stay tuned because you're going to be seeing those ratios improving a long way going forward.

Thanks, Alfonso. Next question from Joan Muller of Financial Mail. Can Itu please provide more color and detail on new leases signed? Any new retail concepts coming to your malls, potential mass market?

Yes. Thanks, Joan. Yes, I mean, I think the one category that's heating up and quite exciting is the grocery category. We've seen quite a lot of inquiries and movement there. So -- and that's why over the past 18 months, we've kind of rationalized and changed some of the tenant mix around our grocery anchors to ensure that we've got the best of breed. But also, I think what's interesting is with Boxer taking slightly smaller boxes, so close to 1,000 squares and slightly smaller. You're seeing SPAR doing the same with introducing SaveMor, and we're opening our first SaveMor in Gugulethu, that's about 800 squares. So in that grocery space, guys are not only looking at the big boxes, they're trying to enter the market with a smaller footprint, but also there's significant competition happening in that space. So it's interesting to see how the different grocery retailers are responding to that. And then Massmart, I mean, we're quite close to Massmart. So we've been talking to them about the entrance of Walmart. But also, I think to me, quite pleasing. If you look at the one slide where we have our category mix, you'll see department stores have a top 4 performer. One of the key category tenants in that space is Game and Game has shown a significant improvement in trade as they've changed some of their focused merchandising and operations on the ground. So that's also a very interesting space to watch. And then we're chatting to them about potentially looking at some of our value centers. And they're also quite excited and putting together a strategy of introducing Walmart into the country. So I'd say grocery is probably the hottest category at the moment. And in the fashion space, you still see great demand for that athleisure. You still see on the services side, food services are doing well across all of the segments. So in the township rural as well in the urban space, you're seeing that our fast food services are doing particularly well.

Thanks, Itu. Next question is from Ridwaan Loonat of Nedbank CIB. Can you perhaps talk to the recent bidding process, the estimated yield you submitted versus the winning bid? And can you provide location, et cetera, and perhaps talk to the competing development in Valencia that may negatively impact your recent acquisition?

Sure. Thanks. So Ridwaan, I think 2 questions there. Let's deal them separately. So no, I can't give details. All these processes are subject to NDAs and confidentialities. So I'm not able to talk about the location or the actual yields that were bid. All I can tell you is that I think the price at which the deal closed augurs very well for our valuations because it adds further evidence to the market not only that we bought very well, but that our current portfolio has got upside in terms of its valuations. So I can't unfortunately give you more details just because of the confidentiality around these processes. With regards to the Infinity transaction in Valencia, maybe just to give the market a bit more color to that for those people that are maybe not as familiar. So when we bought the Bonaire asset, we were obviously aware that there is a site of land in Valencia, [indiscernible] kilometers, I think, from Bonaire, which is a mixed-use site. At the time was owned by a German residential developer, and they were looking to do a super regional shopping center there. It's quite obvious and clear that, that was a critical part of our evaluation of whether we wanted to buy Bonaire or not. What I'm saying is that we went into this very much eyes wide open, knowing about this potential development. The reason why we are confident that it won't impact our center is for the following reasons. We conducted very detailed analysis using our geolocation data that we have from our company, Fetch, that we own a stake in, together with some very thorough discussions with some of the leading retailers in Spain. And what we found is a complete correlation of our insights to their insights. And that is that the vast majority of shoppers who come to Bonaire come from different postal codes in different areas than where we think Infinity is going to draw its shoppers from. We think that there are 2 centers in Valencia that are going to take strain when this one comes to the market. The one is called Saler and the other is called Aqua. Please the Saler is not to be confused to the one owned by Lighthouse, it's owned by MERLIN. But we do feel that those centers are the ones that will take more strain because of proximity to the new site. The others don't have great access to parking where the new one will. So bottom line is that our key retailers, we're very confident that Valencia in time will have its 2 key malls being Bonaire and Infinity. But the other issue is the following, and I'm going to then ask Alfonso to take over with some detail. It's going to be exceedingly difficult for anybody to develop that Infinity site on an economically viable basis. When you consider the cost of construction, when you consider the rentals that one would need to charge or being charged in Bonaire, you will have to rent it out at a premium, a significant premium to Bonaire's rentals to get a yield that will approximate a yield on a new asset today in Spain. Now normally, if you're going to do a development, you would want 150 to 200 basis points premium for the development risk and the time that you're going to take. So I think, Alfonso, can I maybe ask you to pick up with some of those more detailed numbers and also just maybe to talk about the timing and also who has bought that site in terms of the other projects that he's busy with.

Right. Yes. I mean, the latest news that we have is that they come out rather early, more of the contrary, is going to have quite a lot of delays. I mean, according to our tenants, I mean, we've just had the Shopping Center Association Congress here in Madrid. And of course, we've been talking and meeting with all of our -- most of our tenants. And of course, we've been asking about the project. The news are that Tomás Olivo, the developer that has bought the site is not comfortable with the project, and he's going to be turning it around. Most probably of what we were thinking at the beginning is not to do the entire project as it was conceived by AQ Acentor. So that means that there's going to be more time for it to get developed. But on top of it is that what we discovered is that the rents that were pre-agreed by the previous developer are not feasible for the project to be correct, which seems that negotiations with tenants would have to restart all over again. So they confirm that if the project is developed, they would for sure, will have to be in that project. But at the end, what they confirm also is that there will be that -- these 2 shopping centers serving the entire Valencia, only affecting as an opening effect at the beginning. But really, the city of Valencia can sustain both shopping centers as being the dominant ones in town, especially because Bonaire will be serving one part of the catchment area and Infinity will be serving the other. In our previous studies, I mean, we saw that it was only 18% of the catchment area that overlapped with the Infinity project. And as I said, I mean, this has been confirmed by our tenants. And also, I mean, what we see is that the project is not going to come any soon right now.

Thanks, Alfonso. Next question is from Suren from Moneyweb. Just asking what the discount to NAV is for Vukile currently and perhaps what the positives or negatives to it going premium to NAV soon considering the performance of the group.

Yes. Suren, look, we can't run share prices. That's up to the market and investors. All we can do is run the business and make sure we're driving great results year in and year out. And then I think our consistency in our results speaks volumes. So we are very upbeat about where it is. I think there are comparisons in the market of Iberian assets trading at lower yields than our South African assets. And I think that is certainly, in my opinion, where the opportunity lies. But we are getting exceptionally positive feedback from our investor base overall. And share prices will take -- look after themselves provided we do what we need to do, and that is drive great earnings and great growth year in and year out. And I think that's what we're fully committed and focused on doing.

Thanks, Laurence. A question from Luqman Hamid of Ninety One. Itu, perhaps any more insight you can add on the Walmart rollout plan?

Yes. Luqman, I mean, I also just want to be very careful about chatting on their behalf. Laurence and I went to go see Miles about a month ago, where we sit and we had a discussion around Game and Massmart and the immediate strategy. I think what I can share with you are kind of 2 insights from that discussion. One is a strong commitment, not only to South Africa, but to the African continent. They've got a plan that they presented to Walmart that's been approved for them to have significant aggressive growth in country and also in the rest of Africa. And I think it's one, focus on the current real estate, trying to improve, rationalize and be competitive, which is what we're starting to see in the Massmart numbers that there is a slight improvement, focused a lot more on, I'd say, the grocery element. But also, I think great, great appetite to be acquisitive and to grow in scale and to be a real competitor. I think an anecdote that he used was in every market that Walmart operates in, they're always in South Africa, they're #6. And they're not trying to be #5 or #4. They want to go all the way to the top. So to me, I think we're all excited about what's happening in the space. We're talking to them quite close to their plans, they're looking at our portfolio. And I would imagine that over the next couple of months, we'll start seeing some movement.

Thanks, Itu. Another question, I think, for you from Zwelakhe from Oakhaven Capital. With all the various discount grocery stores in your portfolio, are you -- is there one that you're particularly bullish on? Are you providing support to the box rollout plan? And are you able to share anything -- any details around the lease structure in terms of turnover threshold percentages alongside the basic rental?

Yes. Zwelakhe, I mean, our approach to tenant mix is very data-driven. So we do a lot of primary research. We overlay it with speaking to the consumers in those relative catchments and understanding what it is that they want. And then we do quite a bit of work analyzing our portfolio as well as mobility data. So what drives a targeted tenant is primarily what the consumers want on the ground. So I would say, over the past year, what has been encouraging in the grocery space and also our relationship with Boxer is how nimble they are in making deals work. So traditionally, to have a grocery anchor, you needed 3,000 squares or 3,500 squares to introduce them into a shopping center. They have redefined that. They've got footprints that go as low as 1,000 squares to some that go close to 3,000 squares. So they can access a lot more boxes than what the traditional grocer used to do in the past. And I think that's how they've also managed to have the significant growth. So I would say how we determine which grocery anchor we'll introduce is, number one, driven by research, but also driven by availability of space, and then we'll do the deals. I think we're still doing a lot of deals with Shoprite. We're still working very closely with Boxer. The SaveMor angle of SPAR is exciting me. And also, they're looking at a very quick turnaround strategy in terms of doing deals. So I'd say that there are a lot of options and research will drive which ones we bring into which more.

Itu, Laurence, there are no further questions. Perhaps you'd like to share some concluding remarks.

Brian, thank you very much. Again, just once again to reiterate that we are very positive with the start of the year. We are equally upbeat about the next 7 months of trading. And thank you all for your attendance. Look forward to seeing you all at interims on the 26th of November. And Suren, to your point again, we'll provide tighter guidance at that point, but we are upbeat. Thank you very much, everyone. Have a good day.