Weyerhaeuser Company (WY) Earnings Call Transcript & Summary

Greetings, and welcome to the Weyerhaeuser Second Quarter 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Andy Taylor, Vice President of Investor Relations. Thank you, Mr. Taylor. You may begin.

Thank you, Rob. Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us today to discuss Weyerhaeuser's second quarter 2026 earnings. This call is being webcast at www.weyerhaeuser.com. Our earnings release and presentation materials can also be found on our website. Please review the warning statements in our earnings release and on the presentation slides concerning the risks associated with forward-looking statements as forward-looking statements will be made during this conference call. We will discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and a reconciliation of GAAP can be found in the earnings materials on our website. On the call this morning are Devin Stockfish, Chief Executive Officer; and Davie Wold, Chief Financial Officer. I will now turn the call over to Devin Stockfish.

Thanks, Andy. Good morning, everyone, and thank you for joining us. Yesterday, Weyerhaeuser reported second quarter GAAP earnings of $162 million or $0.23 per diluted share on net sales of $1.9 billion. Excluding a special item, we earned $91 million or $0.13 per diluted share. Adjusted EBITDA totaled $310 million for the quarter. Despite ongoing market challenges and inflationary pressures, we delivered solid results that underscore the resilience of our business and the strong operational performance of our teams. Turning now to our second quarter business results. I'll start with Timberlands on Pages 6 through 9 of our earnings slides. Excluding a special item, Timberlands contributed $59 million to second quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $123 million, a slight improvement compared to the first quarter. In the West, adjusted EBITDA was $67 million, a $9 million increase over the prior quarter. Starting with the Western domestic market, log demand and pricing improved in the second quarter as mills responded to a strengthening lumber market and built log inventories ahead of wildfire season. As a result, our domestic sales volumes and average realizations were higher compared to the first quarter. Given favorable operating conditions, our fee harvest volumes increased slightly and forestry and road costs were seasonally higher. Our per unit log and haul costs increased as we made the seasonal transition to higher elevation sites and in response to elevated fuel costs. Moving to our Western export business. Log markets in Japan were relatively stable in the second quarter, albeit at lower consumption levels driven by ongoing headwinds in the Japanese housing market. That said, our customers remain well positioned relative to imported lumber from Europe, which continues to face challenges in the Japanese market. For the quarter, demand for our logs was steady, and our sales volumes to Japan were comparable to the first quarter. Our average sales realizations increased moderately. Turning briefly to China. Our log shipments remain limited as we continue to focus on the more profitable domestic market. For the quarter, we delivered 1 vessel to strategic customers in the region, and our average sales realizations were comparable to the prior quarter. Turning to the South. Adjusted EBITDA for Southern Timberlands was $58 million, a slight decrease compared to the first quarter. Southern sawlog markets improved slightly in the second quarter, supported by strengthening lumber prices and log supply constraints resulting from wetter-than-normal weather conditions, particularly in the second half of the quarter. That said, sawlog demand was somewhat tempered as mini mills lowered production in response to elevated finished goods inventories that accumulated due to ongoing trucking constraints. With respect to Southern fiber markets, demand and pricing softened in the second quarter as mills completed spring maintenance outages and continue to align log consumption with lower takeaway of finished goods. On balance, takeaway for our logs remained steady given our delivered programs across the region. Our average realizations increased slightly compared to the first quarter, largely due to a higher mix of grade logs. Given the wet weather conditions, our fee harvest volumes were comparable to the prior quarter and forestry and road costs were slightly lower, per unit log and haul costs increased moderately, largely due to increased fuel costs. In the North, adjusted EBITDA decreased slightly compared to the first quarter due to significantly lower sales volumes associated with seasonal spring breakup conditions. Before moving to Strategic Land solutions, I'll comment briefly a Timberlands transaction we completed in the second quarter. As we reported yesterday, we divested 29,000 acres of noncore timberlands in Oregon for $114 million. This transaction further demonstrates our ongoing commitment to active portfolio management and our disciplined approach to optimizing the quality and value of our timberlands over time. We'll continue to evaluate strategic opportunities that enhance the return profile of our timberlands while also balancing our broader growth strategy and other capital allocation priorities to drive long-term value for our shareholders. Turning now to Strategic Land Solutions on Pages 10 and 11. In the second quarter, Strategic Land Solutions contributed $94 million to earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $129 million, a $64 million decrease compared to the first quarter. The decrease was primarily attributable to lower climate solutions contributions following the sizable conservation easement transaction completed in the first quarter. This was partially offset by strong results from our real estate business as both acres sold and average price per acre increased compared to the first quarter. It's worth noting that we continue to benefit from strong demand and pricing for real estate properties resulting in high-value transactions with significant premiums to timber value. Turning to our Climate Solutions business. Demand for large-scale solar development remains healthy, and we are well positioned to capitalize on this opportunity as markets continue to expand. Notably, our second solar site commenced operations in the second quarter, and we have 3 additional solar developments currently under construction with more expected to break ground later this year. Briefly on our new biocarbon business. We continue to advance the first facility adjacent to our lumber mill in McComb, Mississippi. We've received permits and are positioning to commence construction activity in the fourth quarter. In addition, the partnership is working towards additional sites across Weyerhaeuser's footprint. These are important steps in scaling our biocarbon platform and creating new pathways for growth across our integrated portfolio. Now moving to Wood Products on Pages 12 through 14. Wood Products contributed $71 million to second quarter earnings. Adjusted EBITDA was $129 million, a $58 million improvement compared to the first quarter. This was largely driven by an increase in lumber pricing and higher sales volumes across all business lines, partially offset by higher costs. Starting with lumber. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was $73 million, a $46 million increase from the prior quarter. Benchmark prices for lumber strengthened in the second quarter, supported by a seasonal improvement in demand against a backdrop of supply constraints from previously enacted mill curtailments and closures. Lower European lumber imports have also contributed to tighter supply across the North American market. Further, transportation constraints and elevated fuel costs put upward pressure on lumber pricing in the second quarter. This was particularly acute in southern lumber markets. For our lumber business, average sales realizations increased by 15% compared to the first quarter, largely in line with the framing lumber composite. Although production and sales volumes improved sequentially, our results were impacted by transportation challenges in the U.S. South. Specifically, limited trucking availability contributed at elevated finished goods inventories at several mills, prompting temporary production adjustments to rebalance inventories. Given this dynamic, our unit manufacturing costs increased compared to the first quarter. Log costs were slightly higher. It's worth noting that while transportation remains constrained in the U.S. South, we've taken steps to improve capacity across our operations and expect minimal transportation disruptions in the third quarter. Now turning to OSB. Second quarter adjusted EBITDA was a $6 million loss and a $9 million decrease compared to the prior quarter. This was largely driven by higher unit manufacturing costs resulting from planned annual maintenance as well as elevated resin costs. With respect to the broader OSB market, buyer sentiment remained cautious in the second quarter and supply continued to outpace demand. As a result, composite pricing decreased slightly in May and remained steady for the balance of the quarter, albeit at low levels. Our average sales realizations increased by 3% compared to the first quarter, which was favorable to the OSB composite. And this is largely due to the length of our order files, which results in a lag effect for OSB realizations. Our sales volumes increased slightly and fiber costs were slightly higher. Adjusted EBITDA for engineered wood products was $54 million, a $15 million increase compared to the first quarter, largely driven by a seasonal increase in sales volumes for all products and higher sales realizations for most products. Our unit manufacturing costs increased slightly compared to the prior quarter, while raw material costs were slightly lower. In distribution, adjusted EBITDA increased by $2 million compared to the first quarter, largely due to higher sales volumes. With that, I'll turn the call over to Davie to discuss some financial items and our third quarter outlook.

Thanks, Devin, and good morning, everyone. I'll begin with key financial items, which are summarized on Page 16. In the second quarter, we generated approximately $400 million of cash from operations. We ended the quarter with approximately $530 million of cash and total debt of $5.4 billion. During the quarter, we funded the repayment of our remaining $250 million 4.75% notes at maturity through our commercial paper program. And in early July, we repaid an additional $122 million of debt maturities, which carried a weighted average rate of 7.59%, using cash on hand. Following these transactions, we have no remaining debt maturities in 2026. We have successfully navigated a number of financing transactions in recent years to smooth our maturity profile and lower our expense. Despite the higher rate environment in recent years, we have reduced our overall weighted average interest rate by over 130 basis points since the beginning of 2022. We returned $152 million to shareholders through the payment of our quarterly base dividend and approximately $10 million through share repurchase activity in the second quarter. Capital expenditures were $139 million in the second quarter, which includes $63 million related to the construction of our EWP facility in Arkansas. As we've previously communicated, we anticipate approximately $300 million of investments for Monticello in 2026. It's worth noting that cash proceeds received this year from recent portfolio management activities including Timberlands divestitures in Virginia and Oregon and the final proceeds from the sale of our Princeton mill more than cover our anticipated 2026 investment in Monticello. And as a reminder, CapEx associated with this project will be excluded for purposes of calculating adjusted FAD as used in our cash return framework. Second quarter results for our unallocated items are summarized on Page 15. Adjusted EBITDA for this segment increased slightly compared to the first quarter. Looking forward, key outlook items for the third quarter are presented on Page 18. In our Timberlands business, though we typically see a seasonal decrease in third quarter, we anticipate earnings before special items and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly higher compared to the second quarter of 2026, as results from all regions are expected to improve sequentially. Turning to our Western Timberlands operations, we expect domestic log demand to remain steady in the third quarter as mills respond to a stronger lumber market and maintain elevated log inventories. At the same time, log supply is expected to increase seasonally absent operational restrictions during wildfire season. As a result, our fee harvest and domestic sales volumes are expected to increase moderately compared to the second quarter with slightly higher pricing for our grade logs. That said, we anticipate slightly lower average domestic sales realizations due to mix. Our per unit log and haul costs are expected to decrease slightly, and we anticipate seasonally higher forestry and road costs as we do a significant amount of this work over the summer months. Moving to the Western export program. We anticipate steady demand from our customers and stable pricing for our logs in the third quarter. That said, sales volumes to Japan are expected to be lower sequentially due to the timing of vessels. In China, our shipments are expected to remain consistent with recent activity with one vessel planned in the third quarter. Turning to the South. We expect log demand to improve in the third quarter as mills rebuild inventories following recent weather-related supply constraints. Demand should also benefit from higher sawmill operating rates in response to stronger lumber prices as well as improved fiber mill activity following spring outages. At the same time, regional log supply is expected to increase as weather conditions improve. Given these dynamics, we expect our average sales realizations to be comparable to the second quarter with higher fee harvest volumes. Our per unit log and haul costs are expected to decrease slightly, while forestry and road costs are expected to be seasonally higher. In the North, our fee harvest volumes are expected to be significantly higher as we have fully transitioned from spring breakup conditions, and we anticipate moderately lower sales realizations due to mix. Moving to our Strategic Land Solutions segment. Real estate markets have remained solid year-to-date, and we continue to anticipate a consistent flow of transactions with significant premiums to timber value. Additionally, we expect to deliver steady growth from our Climate Solutions and Natural Resources business in 2026. As a result, we are increasing segment guidance for full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA to approximately $450 million, an increase of $25 million from prior guidance. We now expect basis as a percentage of total SLS sales to be between 15% to 20% for the year. For the third quarter, we expect SLS adjusted EBITDA to be approximately $45 million lower and earnings to be approximately $30 million lower than the second quarter of 2026, primarily due to the timing and mix of real estate sales. For context, it's common for our real estate results to be more heavily weighted toward the first half of the year. For our Wood Products segment, we expect third quarter earnings and adjusted EBITDA to be slightly lower than the second quarter of 2026, excluding the effects of changes in average sales realizations for lumber and OSB. As for product pricing, the lumber composite entered the third quarter on an upward trajectory, supported by steady demand and ongoing supply constraints and transportation challenges. For OSB, composite pricing has been generally ranged down through July as supply continues to outpace demand. As shown on Page 19, our current and quarter-to-date average sales realizations for lumber are moderately higher than the second quarter average, while OSB realizations are slightly lower. As a reminder, in late June, we provided a temporary lumber EBITDA sensitivity to reflect the rapid increase in trucking costs incorporated into delivered realizations during the second quarter. While these costs may remain dynamic in the near term, we do not expect the same level of rapid increase in the third quarter. As a result, we expect to return to our typical lumber sensitivity where a $10 change in commodity prices translates to approximately $50 million of annual EBITDA. For our lumber business, as Devin mentioned, we have largely worked through recent transportation constraints. As a result, we anticipate higher production and sales volumes in the third quarter and slightly lower unit manufacturing costs. Our log costs are expected to be moderately higher, primarily for Western logs. For our OSB business, we expect slightly higher sales volumes and comparable fiber costs in the third quarter. Unit manufacturing costs are expected to increase, primarily driven by more extensive planned annual maintenance and higher resin costs relative to the second quarter. For our Engineered Wood Products business, we anticipate slightly higher sales realizations for all products as previously determined price adjustments take effect in certain markets. Our sales volumes are expected to increase slightly for most products compared to the second quarter, and raw material costs are expected to be slightly higher. For our distribution business, we expect adjusted EBITDA to increase slightly compared to the second quarter, primarily due to higher sales volumes. With that, I'll now turn the call back to Devin, and look forward to your questions.

Thanks, Davie. Before wrapping up this morning, I'll make a few comments on the housing and repair and remodel markets. Starting with housing. Overall, housing activity remains largely stuck in second gear, and continues to be influenced by weak consumer confidence and ongoing affordability challenges. More recently, mortgage rates have moved back up into the mid-6% range, and the conflict in the Middle East has reignited concerns around inflationary pressures and added to the broader economic uncertainty. Given these headwinds, builder confidence remains subdued and housing activity has been softer than we anticipated at the outset of the year. In the near term, I suspect we'll continue to see choppiness in the housing market, absent a noticeable improvement in consumer sentiment. Looking beyond current conditions, however, our outlook for housing fundamentals remains favorable. The U.S. continues to face a significant housing shortage, demographic trends remain supportive, and there's a growing recognition that policies need to better facilitate housing development and improve affordability. On that point, we're encouraged by the recent passage of the 21st Century Road to Housing Act, which represents a positive step forward addressing housing availability and affordability over time. Turning to the repair and remodel market. Activity has remained relatively steady through the first half of 2026, albeit at somewhat muted levels, largely driven by many of the same pressures impacting the new residential market. In addition, turnover of existing homes remains well below historical levels given higher mortgage rates and the ongoing lock-in effect, which has reduced one of the traditional catalysts for remodeling activity. Based on conversations with our customers, demand trends remain somewhat mixed across regions and channels. In general, the pro segment continues to hold up better than the do-it-yourself segment, and we're seeing greater emphasis on smaller remodeling projects, which typically require less wood. Looking forward, we're optimistic that repair and remodel activity will gain momentum as the broader macro environment improves over time. In addition, we think the deferral of large discretionary projects over the last few years will ultimately serve as a tailwind as the macro environment improves. And longer term, many of the key drivers supporting R&R activity remain intact, including favorable home equity levels and an aging housing stock. In closing, our teams delivered solid operating performance in the second quarter, notwithstanding ongoing macroeconomic uncertainty and near-term inflationary pressures. We also advanced key growth initiatives across our business and further optimized our Timberlands portfolio. We're encouraged by the recent increases in pricing for lumber and Western logs, and we remain focused on driving operational excellence, serving our customers and creating long-term value for our shareholders through our disciplined and flexible approach to capital allocation. So with that, I think we can open it up for questions.

[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Susan Maklari with Goldman Sachs.

I want to start on the wood product side of things. Can you talk a bit more about the inventories that you're seeing across the products there? And I guess as we've gone through earnings season and a lot of these builders have taken down their guides for their full year closings, what does that imply in terms of the supply demand setup in the back half of the year? And the potential for pricing and realizations as a result?

Yes. Thanks for the question, Sue. I mean, as you can imagine, it's going to be somewhat differential depending on product line. Maybe I'll start with lumber. I would say, in general, what we've seen this year has been a preference throughout most of the channel to keep a little bit leaner inventories. And so really just haven't seen a whole lot of folks building up large decks of wood across the system. And so I think that's also been one of the dynamics that's maybe pushed pricing a little bit more this year. Obviously, the supply side is a big issue for demand and supply balance in lumber. And so I'd say at present, inventories, probably just slightly below average, not super lean, but certainly not on the heavy side. On the OSB side, similar story. I think just nobody really is inclined to build up large inventories, there's plenty of supply available, and you can see that really across the system. And so it's been fine to just carry a just-in-time approach on the OSB side. And so I would say, similarly, OSB inventories are pretty balanced across the system, not heavy, not too light, but for the level of activity, pretty appropriate. And then EWP is, I would say, pretty normal given the level of activity. And so in terms of your second question, builders bringing their guide down for the year. I mean, look, it's obviously better to have more demand and more building activity on the demand side of the equation. But overall, on lumber, it still feels pretty balanced in terms of the overall system even as we look out to the back half of the year. OSB, similar story to what we've seen here really over the last handful of quarters, which is there's more than adequate supply available out there. And so I think that's just going to be a swag until we see either demand pick up or more supply come out of the system. And then EWP feels reasonably balanced given this level of building activity.

Yes. Okay. That's great color. And then turning to Timberlands. It's nice to hear about the Oregon transaction that came through. Given the rising backdrop for lumber prices. Can you talk about what you're seeing in terms of transactions for Timberlands, the valuations and just the overall market conditions there?

Yes. You bet, Sue. I think in general, the Timberlands A&D markets are going to look through kind of near-term pricing and be thinking more about the longer-term trends that we've been talking about for some time. And so I think with that, we're not really seeing a significant change in the market. I think it's maybe been a little bit slow to the year in terms of the start based on the activity levels. But we've started to see a few more transactions as the year progresses. And I expect, when all is said and done, the whole market will end up in that typical $2 billion to $3 billion range. Once again, it was kind of a similar story last year, and we did end up coming in towards the upper end of that range. So again, there's significant capital out there pursuing this asset class. Much of that's been raised over the past several years and has not yet been deployed. And so again, our experience is that demand remains very strong for high-quality timberland packages. And while we have seen some level of valuation disconnects on some of those lower quality packages, again, I think we continue to expect solid demand for quality assets over time.

Our next question comes from George Staphos with Bank of America.

I guess the first question I had is on lumber. So I was wondering, Davie or Devin, if you can quantify what the effect in 2Q on the slowback in the South might have been as you're managing inventory levels relative to transportation. Relatedly, if that was a measurable amount, why would we not necessarily see an increase in lumber and in wood EBITDA ex pricing?

Yes, you bet, George. So maybe just to start on the adjustment in the second quarter. We did reduce the guidance by approximately $20 million for Q2 as a result of really several factors impacting lumber. We had increased grade logs, reduced residuals takeaways in the West as a result of downtime at one of our larger customers. But the largest really was the transportation difficulties that you're referring to. And I'd say that was probably about half of the total reduction there. As we mentioned, we've largely worked through those transportation challenges. And so as we look ahead for the third quarter and we think about the lumber guide, we are guiding for higher sales volumes. So we do anticipate that improving. We are guiding for slightly lower unit manufacturing costs. And so those things, we do anticipate improving into the third quarter.

Okay. And that makes sense, maybe [ half ] of the $20 million. Lumber, well, maybe it's more seasonal, but we have noticed some of the trade pubs are talking about a little bit of erosion. Is it just that? Or is there something else going on in terms of lumber realizations? My other question, then I'll turn it over. Can you talk a bit about the timber inventories? I think you mentioned, Devin, that they'll be building the third quarter on the West. Is that just precautionary ahead of fire season? Or does it reflect less takeaway, if you will, than we'd like to see? And then last, on Climate Solutions, can you give us a quick update? I know it's maybe a little bit out there, but on what you're seeing both in terms of your storage and your credit program.

Yes. So let me take the lumber piece first. What you're seeing in the South is what happens pretty much every year in the South, you're going to see a little bit of a seasonal slowdown in demand just because in many of these geographies, you're pushing 100 degrees every day, and that always slows down building activity, R&R activity. So nothing that I would say is outside of the norm or anything unexpected. You see that largely every year. And then when things cool off a little bit as you get into the fall, activity will pick back up. So nothing unusual there. I think similarly, when you think about the Western log inventory, there's a seasonality to that as well. So this is pretty typical. As you get into that June time frame, generally speaking, you're going to see most mills build up some log inventories as an insurance measure for fire season. I think this year, in particular, because we entered the year -- entered the summer with such a low snow pack, there is a heightened, I think, anxiety about fire season in the Northwest. And so people build up some inventory. Now look, if you have a few days of heavy fire activity and you shut down activity in the woods, people will chew through that pretty darn quickly. And alternatively, if it's a really, really light fire season, which frankly, seems a little unlikely at this point. That extra inventory will put a little bit of a headwind, at least through August into early September on log pricing. And so that's, again, just kind of the normal seasonality. And in terms of your last question on the Climate Solutions business, we're still kind of early in the year from a forest carbon standpoint. The team is doing a great job on putting together high-quality forest carbon projects, working their way through the approval process, the auditing process. So that's all going very well. And they are in the heart of marketing carbon offsets. And so everything is tracking pretty much as we would expect for this time of the year. And then lastly, I think you mentioned the carbon storage. So I think you're referring to CCS projects. I think that's just kind of moving along. The big project that's moving along is the one with Occidental Petroleum. They've got a large offtake agreement with CF Industries. I think the easements are now underway for the pipeline, for the CO2 pipeline. So things are moving along. We still expect that's probably going to come online somewhere around 2029.

Our next question comes from Ketan Mamtora with BMO Capital Markets.

Maybe first question on the engineered growth side, encouraging to see prices moving higher. Can you talk about what you have out there by way of any price increases? Or is this more of sort of higher cost pass-through? How should we be thinking about it?

Yes. So a couple of things I would highlight. When we look at the Q2 increase in pricing, I would say to a large degree, that was mostly just a mix issue. We did a little bit more solid section, which has a little better realizations versus I-joists. So Q2 is more of a mix. As we roll into Q3, we are expecting to see the price increases that we rolled through in Q2 take effect. And I would say that is largely primarily just a reflection of passing along some of the increased resin costs and other input costs with higher fuel overall. So that's really what that is. It's still a competitive market out there. And so it's really not a demand issue. It's more of a passing along some of those costs, and that's really what's driving that.

Understood. No, that's helpful. And then just switching to OSB. Devin, I'm curious to get your updated thoughts around sort of what is your approach to managing sort of production and capacity given an extended slump in new residential construction. I mean 3 out of the last 4 quarters have been EBITDA negative for you guys. I'm curious sort of how are you sort of approaching this sort of new residential continues to remain weak here in the back half.

Yes. I mean, this has been a -- it's been a tough environment for OSB here recently for us and really everyone in the industry. I'd say it starts with a strong focus on cost management. I do think we are the lowest cost producers across the OSB industry. So that's where it starts. We certainly focus on product quality. We do lean a little bit heavier to flooring, which is generally a little bit better margin opportunity. And then it's all about what can you do for the customer to create value, and that's how you win business in this market. Look, over time, as you think about this industry, and you can see a great example of this in lumber. You can have stretches that are like this. Ultimately, supply and demand balance out, it can be a painful period getting from here to there. But ultimately, we're going to see either more demand come or more capacity rationalized. And generally speaking, how that works is folks that are a little bit further down on the cost cut curve are the ones that will ultimately rationalize that capacity. We obviously can't speak to what other people are going to do or not do. They're going to make their own decisions. But for us, it's about making sure that we have our cost low, making sure that we're serving customers and just navigating what is a pretty challenging environment right now.

Our next question comes from Kurt Yinger with D.A. Davidson.

Maybe I was hoping we could just go back to kind of the Wood Products outlook. Just kind of considering the higher volume across all the categories, EWP pricing distribution. I mean it seems like there's a lot working in your favor in terms of kind of sequential profitability. So could you just maybe talk about some of the big sets there? I know you mentioned some OSB maintenance, maybe some pieces on the cost side as well. So can you just help us understand kind of those big offsets there?

Yes. You bet, Kurt. So you're right. There's some favorable outlook guide on the volume side, across the products. The big ones that I would point you to would be in OSB, the unit manufacturing costs. We do have a similar amount of maintenance in the third quarter, although higher costs in terms of what we're -- what the activities are that we're doing. And so there is a little bit more cost associated with that in the third quarter. And then we do also expect to see the increase in resin costs just be slightly higher in the third quarter in that space as well as in EWP. And then as we're looking across lumber, we do see some increase in log costs, which is obviously favorable to us on the timberland side. So that's kind of all in when you weigh all that together, that's how you get to the slightly lower [ ex ] price.

Okay, okay. I appreciate that. And then Devin, I was hoping we could talk a little bit about kind of what you're seeing or thinking second half of the year into the early part of 2027, even on kind of lumber imports, just with kind of the pricing environment we've seen plus presumably finalized Canadian duties moving lower. Were you thinking about incremental supply from Canada? And then what are you also hearing in terms of shipments coming over from Europe as well?

Yes. Maybe I'll take that in two parts. From Canada, which is obviously the bigger of the two, we are going to see with AR-7, we're going to see the duties come down by 10%. So the all-in duty rate with tariffs is going to be around 35% versus 45%. So that does provide a little bit more breathing room on the downside from a pricing standpoint. My own personal view is I wouldn't expect to see a meaningful amount of additional volume coming in from Canada based on that 10% reduction, 35% is still a healthy number. And I'd say the other thing, too, right, is we've seen a bunch of Canadian capacity come out of the system. I don't anticipate that those mills that have been shut down are going to come back. And so there's a certain amount of volume that's just out of the system. So there may be a little bit of noise once the implementation date is set. And as a reminder, that can be anywhere from August to October. Maybe around the margins, you'll see people kind of moving shipment dates to try to navigate that change. But I don't see that resulting in any sort of meaningful increase in lumber coming across the border. Now with respect to Europe, now that's always -- just as a reminder, that's always been a relatively small piece of the overall demand. I do see that continuing to trend down over time. I mean you may have a few monthly spikes here and there. But with the transportation and logistics costs these days, getting that wood across the pond, together with the fact that just log costs have gone up in many of these key producing regions in Europe. And so it just strikes me as unlikely that you're going to see European imports really get back to more of those peak levels. And I would just remind you that when we really saw the peak in imports coming over from Europe, part of that was because they were working through salvage with wind blown, past fire, et cetera. And for all intents and purposes, those logs are free. And so that just gives you a lot of flexibility to take on the transportation cost to get it over. Now log prices have gone back to market levels, and they've been going up. So that's going to be, I think, a bit more challenging for European volume to really spike up meaningfully.

Our next question comes from Mark Weintraub with Seaport Research Partners.

Devin, a pretty big picture question. Normally, housing is the drivers for you for sure. Right now, we're going through this massive spend, but it's on AI infrastructure. Are there ways that you are participating at all? And are there ways that you could possibly increase participation from this massive spend going on?

Yes, absolutely, Mark. And so I'll highlight a few different areas. So in the very near term, one of the areas that we're going to benefit is from our solar and renewables business. I think when you look across all of North America, certainly in the U.S., the amount of energy demand is just spiking. And so that's causing a significant degree of interest in developing, in particular, solar because that's the fastest to market. So that's going to be a nice tailwind for us for a very long time, it's just the incremental demand for electricity, and we'll get that in the renewables business. You're already starting to see some of that. I'd say the second one is with our land position. We're obviously the largest landowner in North America. We have a number of sites that we feel are very well suited for data center build-outs. And so we are actively marketing a handful of sites, and we're building that pipeline. So that's another area where I think in the relatively near future, we could see some upside. As you would expect, the price per acre from data centers is pretty significant and just an extraordinary margin above timber values. And so we're actively pursuing that. And then the other piece, which I would say is probably a little bit more in the early stages, although we, Weyerhaeuser, and we, as an industry, are actively working this is utilizing more wood-based construction in the build-out of data centers, I think there's a really nice sweet spot for us in this space in that most of the folks that are building data centers also have pretty significant climate pledges and greenhouse gas reduction commitments. Building with wood is substantially better from an environmental standpoint. And so we're out there working with the data center developers trying to get wood more extensively utilized in this build-out. And so the early indications, I think there is certainly an openness to it. But in all candor, today, it's all about speed. And so what we've got to do is we've got to convince the developers that you can get mass timber up more quickly than the alternative building product. So we're working that. I do think we'll get some momentum here, the Softwood Lumber coalition, a whole bunch of other industry associations are working this. So it's a big opportunity, and we're going after it.

Right. And in interest, are they primarily using like steel and concrete?

Steel and concrete, yes. Steel and concrete.

Yes. And maybe there's a little bit of relationship to this next question, too then. And it's on Monticello. And so one thing that's been very apparent out there is the cost of building has increased very substantially in the last several years. Is the $500 million budget still good? I mean were you upfront and have things locked down so that we can stay there? And then relatedly, and this again might tie into the last question a little bit. Any update or read on look forward demand for the product?